Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Sounds like there's more to it than a flounce over increased training fees.
Particularly if the training fees haven't gone up for 10 years as Mullins states
O'Leary must reckon his horses are not getting the same focus as the other big owners in the yard, Ricci and Wylie.
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Sals 2.20 - Koeman - win at 11/2 bog bet365
2yo maiden over 7f
my selection wasn't beaten far in a hot looking maiden at Newbury last time and this should be easier
should be suited by this stiffer track and appears to act OK on softish ground (g/s at Newbury)
like the booking of Crowley as he's going for the jockeys title and his agent is obviously looking for potential winners for him
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Just had a quick look at the horses entered without going into it at much depth.......let's see who turns up !
Just a general thought though
The Arc is the top race in Europe........the Arc winner should be the top horse in Europe or in the top handful
So I don't like going for horses that get beat quite often. If they're in the top handful of European horses they should be winning the races that are just below the Arc !
For example Found keeps finishing 2nd.........if she was an Arc winner she should be winning some of those races
So my shortlist of horses who win a lot......Almanzor (last I heard wasn't an intended runner), Postponed, Harzand, Makahiki, Order of St George, Left Hand
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2.30 Sedge - Kiwayu - win at 10/3 bog Corals
Novice hurdle
my selection came back to hurdling a couple of runs ago afet two years of running on the flat. Came 2nd first time then won easily last time.......by 7 lengths, hard held
Looks like there a lot more in the tank
Difficult to assess the value of these novice races but 30 lengths and more behind him were horses rated 110, 115, 106
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3.40 Bath - Rake's Progress - win at 25/1 bog wm hill
2yo maiden over 10f
going for an outsider here who looks bred for staying trips but who's only run to date was over an inadequate looking 7 furlongs at Lingfield. Was running on at the finish and showed some promise
Never quite know which 2yo will truly get 10f at this stage of their career so there's always a chance of the fancied ones being overturned
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2.20 Curr - Dawn of a New Era - EW at 16/1 bog betvictor
2yo fillies group 3
I've had my eye out for this horse after she made her racecourse debut in a group one race for a top trainer
that's pretty unusual and predictably didn't trouble the judge
She's a full sister to Dawn Approach though so impeccably bred and presumably well thought of
let's see how she goes after a run !
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4.20 MR - Jelly Monger - win at 11/4 bog boyles
Novice hurdle
With a couple of rank no-hopers this would appear to be a 3 horse race and I'm going for the one out of those three at the current biggest odds
My horse was decent on the flat, rated in the 90s last year, and won her only start over sticks last time out with a good turn of foot. Better opposition today but she's still unexposed and should be suited by this decent ground
Favourite is Late Night Lily who looks OK........but hasn't run for nearly 5 months and the yard has got off to a quiet start to the season with no winners this month. Also might be better on soft ground and with a sterner test of stamina
The other fancied one is For Goodness Sake.......she appears to be weak in the finish and has a bit of placce-itis, not going through with an effort when asked. The Greatorex yard has also been quiet which is unusual as they generally get off to a flyer and get their winners early before the big guns come out to play
My trainer is going along OK with a couple of winners from his last 6 runners
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1.55 Newm - Manaboo - win at 16/1 bog wm hill
Mile listed race for fillies
Good card at HQ today and this is a competitive opener
With the two highest rated horses carrying penalties I'm looking at hose rated a few pounds less. My horse is lightly raced and still unexposed. Ran very badly when trailling in last at Haydock last time which is why she's a big price today. Before that has finished 3rd to Lumiere and won a maiden at Goodwood
Yard has hit form recently and I'll give her a chance to prove that Haydock run was a one off
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2 hours ago, Trotter said:
2.35 Newm - Berengaria - win at 10/1 bog wm hill
Nursery over a mile
My selection looked very promising on her first two runs. She finished 4th in a hot maiden at Glorious Goodwood on debut then won her maiden 2nd time
Have to forgive a poor run last time in a small field on the AW but that's why she's 10/1
Step up in trip should suit and Joe fanning is back on after James Doyle rode last time
Non runner
I'll stick with the same race 2.35 Newm - and go for Haulani - win at 5/2 bog Ladbrokes
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2.35 Newm - Berengaria - win at 10/1 bog wm hill
Nursery over a mile
My selection looked very promising on her first two runs. She finished 4th in a hot maiden at Glorious Goodwood on debut then won her maiden 2nd time
Have to forgive a poor run last time in a small field on the AW but that's why she's 10/1
Step up in trip should suit and Joe fanning is back on after James Doyle rode last time
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2.00 Good - See of Rome - win at 11/1 bog boyles
2yo mdn over 9 furlongs
I like to look at once raced horses who finished placed on debut for these 2yo maidens.
This one finished 3rd at Salisbury with 8 lengths back to the 4th and was only beaten just over a length by two horses with previous experience
By derby winner Pour Moi so should appreciate the step up in trip and got a mile at Salisbury no problem
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3.10 Bev - Line of Reason - win at 9/1 bog bet365
5f stakes race
my selection won a similar race over CD earlier this season and has run well here on other occasions........a couple of runs ago he was beaten a length in a Listed race
race could be run to suit with plenty of early pace on
it's fiercely competitive but he must have a chance as there are doubts about all those with higher official ratings
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3.40 Kemp - Instigation - ew at 50/1 bog wm hill
2yo maiden
my horse is an outsider but is having her second outing after finishing down the field in a maiden race at the Newmarket July Meeting
this should be less demanding, the trainers horses usually improve for their debut runs and she's had some time off so might just be a different horse now. Two months is a long time in the lives of these 2 year olds
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4.00 Plu - Knight bachelor - win at 7/4 bog wm hill
handicap hurdle over 3m 1f
My selection is the young improver in the field having won his last 3 races. He's well up in the weights, 20lbs above his last handicap run which is whopping but this doesn't look too hard for the grade. Only 3 rivals and one of them, Mercers Court, is a dubious stayer. The other two both ran well last time but haven't won for a while and are probably handicaped to the hilt
I expect my horse to get out in front and make all.......hopefully this sharp track will suit him
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3.45 Ayr - G Force - win at 11/1 bog boyles
Ayr Gold Cup
My horse was a group one winner a couple of years ago. Hasn't won since but has been slipping down the weights. Has had a wind operation since his last handicap run. He's only ever run in a couple of handicaps in his life as he's generally been contesting group races. That is a bit of a worry as I'm wary of horses that return to handicaps after group races.......they tend to be on the downgrade and can be vulnerable giving weight to horses progressing through the ranks
However he ran his best race for a long time on his first run after the wind op, at Navan last time out so the omens are good
handles soft ground and is particularly suited to big fields
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3.55 Newb - Galactic Prince - win at 10/1 bog boyles
Mile conditions race for 2yo
With the ground turning from g/f to heavy overnight there are plenty of non runners
I'm going for one of the outsiders who is provan on soft ground and should be suited by the step up to a mile
breeding sounds good - by Dubawi out of a Gallileo mare. The breeding experts would be drooling over that !
With the Hannon yard seemingly out of form the favourite can probably be taken on and the other two have only run on very fast ground
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Ayr 2.00 - Father Bertie - win at 7/1 bog bet365
Mile handicap, class 4, soft ground
My horse drops in class after finishing close up off this mark in some class 2/3 handicaps. He has won off a pound higher but it's difficult to make a case that he's well handicapped .......looks like the assessor has him about right, so he could be vulnerable to a lurker.......
However he's been running to around this mark and all the conditions are fine so maybe this drop in class will see him get his head in front
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Sand 3.50 - Muwaary - win at 10/1 bog bet365
Listed race over a mile
My horse was a decent 2yo who finished 4th/5th in a couple of group one races at 3
Had a year off then returned this year with a couple of so-so efforts but appeared to run much better last time at Haydock to finish 2nd to Forge
Return to a mile should help
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4.50 Yarm - Port Isaac - win at 11/10 bog bet365
6f maiden
my horse finished a close up 2nd on debut to a mid-80s rated winner. If he comes on a bit for the run and runs somewhere in the 80s he should be good enough to win this
apart from the newcomer the others have had a few chances to break their ducks and I generally prefer once-raced horses in maidens to those that have tried and failed a few times
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3.20 Worc - Roadie Joe - win at 11/10 bog wm hill
beginners chase
Looks like a 2 horse race my selection has been running in te better races over sticks, having won ay grade 2 level and been competing in top handicaps. He's already won twice at this track
Rival Move to The Groove has lesser hurdles form but he's been winning those lesser events in taking fashion and 'looks like a chaser'
Shouldn't be much between them
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Chantilly 3.50 - Zelzal - win at 2/1 bog wm hill
Plenty of top class racing in France and Ireland on Sunday
I'm going for the group one Mile race at Chantilly
My selection is improving quickly into a top class miler and won a group one over CD last time out.......that was for 3yo and he now takes on the older horses
He doesn't appear to have much to fear from the other 3yo in the race and the two older horses who are 2nd and 3rd favourites have had plenty of chances at the top level without winning
The one I'm worried about is Zarak at 7/1 who has twice finished close up behind Almanzor who stamped himself as the best horse in Europe when winning in Ireland on Saturday........I'm just hoping this mile is too sharp for him dropping back from 10f
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Ling 4.10 - C Note - win at 9/4 bog ladbrokes
7f conditions race
With the Hannon runner a big outsider this looks to be between 3 of them
Aljuljalah is the current favourite but this might be a bit sharp for her if it turns into a typical small field tactical affair.......she was outpaced over a mile last time. Might be better off going up in trip not down
Difficult to choose between C Note and Salateen (I've backed them both......
). I've gone for C Note because he's less exposed and appears t go well fresh and comes here off a two month break. His last run appears better on the figures than that of Salateen, who hasn't won for over a year and might be something of a sitting duck if he makes the running
Monthly Nap Comp- Thursday Sept 29th
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
Clonmel 3.30 - Rockey Storm - win at 11/1 bog wm hill
Handicap hurdle over 3 miles
Going for a lightly raced type here who's only had 4 runs under Rules but was a decent pointer last year. Has been running over shorter trips and in all 4 appearances has been running on at the finish suggesting he should stay.
Finished 3rd in a big field on his handicap debut last time and looks ready to go well today in a slightly easier race