Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Warw 1.25 - Silvergrove - win at 5/4 bog wm hill
Novice hurdle for stayers
My selection has had a previous go at hurdling without success in 6 races. However that was back in 2014 and since then he's improved a lot since sent chasing. His rating has gone up two and half stones since he last ran over hurdles
Would have won first time out last season but the saddle slipped and the rider fell off near the finish
Main concern is the ground as he does seem best on soft but as long as there's no 'firm' in i then good ground should be OK. He finished 3rd on good ground at the Cheltenham Festival this year
My main worry ids that they're popping him over hurdles as a prep run for a staying chase in the next few weeks and that he might not be given a hard time. However I think he's got something in hand here and could win even if not fully tuned up
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4 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:
I don't see any @Trotter bets in the footy forums, he must be all talk.
there's a footy forum ?........
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2.05 Muss - Spectator - win at 11/4 bog betvictor
Novice hurdle
My selection is one of the two previous winners in the field.......he won at Kelso in what looked a poor race but he showed promise and some speed to put the race to bed after the last
I think he can improve on that on what will be only his 3rd run since having almost a year off
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Hope I won't be hounded off the forum for this but I've got an admission to make.........for the last couple of months I've mainly been betting on football
Nothing fancy.......single win only bets on Premier League games, looking at teams that are Evens or better or just a shade of odds-on
If you think about it every match is like a 3 horse race.........you've got to have a decent chance of picking a winner !
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Exe 1.50 - Chantecler - EW at 14/1 bog wm hill
Novice hurdle
Going for one here who looks very inconsistent and who's had 3 goes over sticks with two PU and beaten 50 lengths in the other
However there is a bit of a pattern in that he generally runs OK on good ground and on the AW but really struggles when there's any 'soft' involved.......all his hurdle runs have been on g/s to heavy
Expecting a better show on today's ground and he should be competitive on his best flat form.
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Well done Tipsterix !
cheers BH
I've missed out on this comp for a couple of months but hoping to get in for next months (by my fingertips !).........it does liven up Saturdays when you have plenty of runners in the competitions
- Tipsterix and BillyHills
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Don't know if this is a general feeling but my interest has waned in the Breeders Cup
Nowadays I just tend to flick over for the Turf, Mile and Classic on the Saturday.......and ignore everything else and I don't watch the inter-race waffle either. I can't stand those endless human interest stories. For God's sake I'm not interested in humans !
I might watch one of the other races if there's a European horse that I've heard of running
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1.30 Hereford - Whataknight - win at 1/4 bog bet365
beginners chase
my selection should outclass these as longs as he jumps OK. Has already had a run over fences when he might have needed the outing after his summer break and was a multiple point winner and decent hurdler (won a class 2 handicap)
One of is rivals here has had 3 runs over fences but looks poor and the other two come straight from Points
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I bet they don't all win !..........my well odds-on shot in what turned into a 2 runner race at Carlisle today got thrashed
I reckon 6 will win
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3.50 Carl - Bristol de Mai - win at 5/4 bog bet365
Intermediate chase for horses that were novices last season
Looks a 2 horse race on paper. More of That is probably the better horse and gets 4lbs but he's perhaps more of a stayer than my selection and might not be suited by a small field tactical race, though he has won small field races before. Also Jonjo tends to bring his horses on with a run........they might not be 100% first time out
My horse looks a bit speedier and appears well at home in small fields on RH tracks. generally front runs and might have things his own way here setting a slow pace and outsprinting them from the last. Twiston-Davies does get a few first time out winners and maybe has them readier than Jonjo as a rule
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1.35 Weth - Double ws - win at 10/11 bog wm hill
Novices handicap chase
my selection won a novices handicap last time out. jumping well and pulling clear in the finish
with his two main rivals making their chase debuts I'll bank on his jumping to see him win
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Shame there's only 7 runners because with 8 I think Wakanda at 33/1 would be an EW option
Won the listed handicap chase at this meeting last year then followed up in two more listed handicaps
But not worth doing with only 2 places
(of course if there were 8 runners he wouldn't be 33/1 because the bookies would have an eye on the EW market)
Just as an aside I had a good Charlie Hall a few years ago in another 7 runner race.......I posted up Harry Topper (won 5/1) and EW Wayward Prince (2nd 50/1).........ah, the good old days when I could tip winners !........
- BillyHills, gbettle and Jimmy2shoes
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Newm 1.50 - Blue on Blue - win at 7/4 bog boylesports
2yo maiden 7f
Struggling to find anything over umps today so just going for the first race to get it over with !......
My selection is favourite, comes from the Gosden yard, has Frankie up and ran green on debut, should come on for the run
To be honest I don't think that was a very good race and I'm not sure he's a worthy favourie, My intention was to post up Founding Father but the yard is having such a quiet time in October that it put me off.
I don't think the standard of those with form is that good so a newcomer could win but experience does count for a lot at this stage so fingers crossed........
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2.00 Sedge - Court Dismissed - win at 10/3 bog betvictor
Staying novices handicap chase over three and a quarter miles
With the likely favourite pulling out there are just 4 left and it's a tricky one with all four fairly close in the betting and the Racing Post plumping for the outsider.......looks like they all have a chance
My selection is sure to stay and has his second run back from a break, having finished 2nd over an inadequate trip first time up in a similar class race to this. Has won here over hurdles. Reported to be a small horse he seems better when running with a low weight in better races than when carrying a big weight in worse races so I'm not that bothered that he's a couple of pounds out of the handicap
Jimmy the Jetplane is looking a bit unfortunate in that he's finished 2nd four times in a row but has been put up another 5lbs since his last run. Might be better going RH and tends to stop when he hits the front so might prove tricky to time his challenge.
Tickenwolf has done his winning in lower grades. Unprovan over the trip but should stay based on some of his form at Hexham over slightly shorter but on a stiffer track, Likes this good ground........main danger to my selection if he lasts home
Western Jo is the 'Post' pick and has run in some better races than this but he hasn't won for around 3 years and jumped poorly last time he was seen
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Just looking at that list of past winners and some pretty good horses have won the race !
I guess there is a logic as to why seasonal debutants have such a good record.......there isn't really a race that those top class horses could run in before this one......I like trends that have logic behind them
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Fak 2.40 - Lee Side Lady - win at 11/8 bog betvictor
Handicap hurdle
My selection is still lightly raced with just 8 career starts under Rules but she has won 3 including her last 2 and has won over CD
She comes here off a 5 month break but her last win was off a 3 month break and the yard can get them ready first time out
Not too keen on the chances of the second favourite, Fine Resolve and Opechee is probably the biggest danger
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The racing Post has a list of the ones that have run to date.....wins, runs, places, prize money etc
http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/stallionbook/stallion.sd?horse_id=763453&tab=stud
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Catt 1.20 - Brian the Snail - win at 5/6 bog betvictor
Novice race for 2yo
My selection is a once raced colt who won on his only start. The second won next time out
After the race connections said he would improve for the run so should be hard to beat here as the top rated of these
The other contenders have had more runs and might not not have as much improvement in tem
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2.30 Ayr - Ckalco des Loges - win at 5/4 bog bet365
2 mile novice hurdle
not much form to go on here and the usual dilemma with novices................do you go with the ones with a bit of form in the book or the sexy French one
I'm going for the sexy French one...............
He won a Point in France very easily and has now joined the Skelton yard. Impossible to know how good or bad he is but he's by a good jumps sire and the form of his Point worked out well
Two others feature in the market with Point and Bumper form and I think Blakerigg could be the main danger though Mr Monochrome has had a recent run.
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Winc 3.30 - I'm In Charge - win at 2/1 bog wm hill
Handicap chase over 3.3 miles
My selection has won 3 times here over a slightly shorter trip.......about a furlong shorter !
He loves the good to firm ground and has had a couple of runs since returning from his summer break........won over hurdles then 2nd over an inadequate trip last time. I don't think he's that well handicapped being 14lbs above his last chase winning mark and 20lbs above that hurdle win this season. None of the other looks well handicapped either so he might get away with that in these conditions
Gentleman Jon was behind my selection last time and has never been tried beyond 3 miles
Miss Serious looks best going left handed and fell a few days ago
Cernunnos drops in class but is another doubtful stayer
I'd like to see my horse putting some pace to the race in the last circuit to try and run the legs off the doubtful stayers and put some pressure on Miss Serious' jumping
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Chelt 4.40 - Shantou Village - win at 10/11 bog bet365
Novice chase
My selection was a grade 2 winning novice hurdler who went off favourite for the Albert Bartlett at the Festival but had to pull up after being struck into. Best suited by good ground and has won at the track over sticks. Looks likely to take his place amongst the top staying novice chasers this season and can take this. Has had a run over fences where he outclassed the opposition at Fontwell and made a couple of late errors when well clear but otherwise had jumped well. I suppose a jumping error can wipe out any selection over fences so hopefully he'll jump OK today
Main rival Brother Tedd was also pretty good over sticks and finished 2nd to a decent one on chase debut. I've noticed that all his wins have come on RH tracks, though that might be coincidence
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2.10 Chelt - El Bandit - win at 13/8 bog wm hill
Novice hurdle
My selection has won his last 4 races including a grade 2 hurdle last time out
Longer trip should suit and goes on the ground and represents the Nicholls yard
By the vagaries of the calendar he loses his novice status at the end of this month so this is likely to be his main target rather than a novice race at the Festival
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2.00 Lud - Hazamar - win at Evs bog wm hill
Juvenile hurdle
My selection finished 2nd here last time and this looks easier if anything. Acts on the ground and gets the trip
Main rival would seem to be Inn The Bull who comes from a big yard (Alan King) but wasn't as good on the flat as my horse and isn't a guaranteed stayer
Monthly Nap Comp - Friday Nov 4th
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
First selection a non runner........seems to be a lot at Warwick today including most of the better horses. The ground has gone to good, good to firm in places which probably accounts for the withdrawals
Go for this one instead....
Font 2.10 - Mystic Sky = win at 2/1 bog wm hill
Mares handicap hurdle
My selection won an Intermediate race at at Market Rasen last time out, She was getting weight from a couple of 125 rated horses but beat them by double figure lengths so on that she look OK off 122
handles good ground and the trainer does get the odd first time out winner
Culture de Sivola looks the main danger dropping in class