Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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3.10 Exe - Caulfields venture - win at 4/1 bog ladbrokes
3m handicap chase
My selection is unbeaten at the track with 3 wins from 3 runs, goes well on good ground and his last two wins have come after breaks
Just 1lb above his last winning mark
Main danger is Wizards Bridge who has also won over this CD and should be fit after running in a race that was Voided. Looks well handicapped having fallen below is last winning mark
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3.00 Plump - Killabraher Cross - win at 13/2 bog bet365
Handicap chase around 20F
BH's tip Unify is the form horse here with two wins and going for the hat-trick and is the most likely winner but at the odds I'll take her on. She's up another 6lbs and only won by less than a length last time in a 3 horse race having made some jumping errors on the way round
My selection has won twice here including this race last year and another race in April. Rated a pound lower now than that last win after a couple of poor runs in May and has been off since. That's not a worry as he goes well fresh and his last two wins have come off breaks of 3 months and 5 months. Having won this last year it's a fair bet he's been prepared for this as a target by a trainer who has very few horses
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Kemp 4.45 - Prince Khurram - win at 4/1 bog wm hill
Novices handicap chase
Tight little contest with none of the 5 looking like a standout favourite
My selection appears to be a safe jumper which is valuable as these are pretty stiff fences which can expose any iffy jumping. He keeps finishing 2nd and 3rd which suggests he's probably handicapped up to his ability and might be vulnerable to one that's well in........but none of them stand out as being well handicapped
It's al relative........you can be badly handicapped but still well in if the other horses are even more badly handicapped !
Hoping he'll jump soundly and the others might get caught out by the stiff fences
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Ffos 3.00 - Whataknight - win at 5/4 bog betvictor
Beginners chase over around 3 miles
My selection was a top Pointer (5 wins) who had a good season over sticks last year, winning a Novice and a competitive handicap, after which the trainer said that he's a 'real chaser' for next year
So he makes his debut over fences today and conditions looks ideal, 3 miles on decent ground
Beast of burden was a similar level hurdler and the yard are in good form but he made a rick of his previous start over fences when he fell (to be fair it was a very hot race, a grade 2 at Newbury). His wins have come on soft and heavy so not sure he'll be suited by this faster ground
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16 minutes ago, BillyHills said:
You can have 6's Trotter, it was widely available this morning
thanks BH !
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Lost my post when the site went down.......
the quick version -
Winc 1.50 - Beat The Tide - win at 9/2 bog wm hill
(bit pee'd off because it was 6/1 when I was typing as the site went down !.........
)
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I've tried several times to sign in to the Racing Post to do my form study for tomorrow but can't get the Sign In panel to open
very annoying.........
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Punch 4.30 - Sadlers Risk - win at 9/4 bog Ladbrokes
Grade 3 chase over 3 miles plus
Gordon Elliot has won this for the last 5 years so his Lord Scoundrel will probably go off favourite
But apart from that stat there's doesn't seem to be much between that one and my horse. Similar ratings, similar level of wins
Couple of things are leaning me towards taking on the favourite.......firstly he fell last time out 29 days ago and had made an earlier blunder before falling. He's never fallen before so I'm wondering if that signifies some problem or if it will affect his jumping today. Secondly he's never won over this far whereas my horse has.
My horse had a pipe opener over hurdles last time after 3 months off and should be race fit now
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Weth 2.55 - Ballybolley - win at 8/11 bog wm hill
Novice chase around two and a half miles
My selection is an experienced chaser now with 9 starts under his belt and takes on 3 fencing newcomers on their seasonal debuts here. Was a bit disappointing when finishing 2nd at odds-on when making his seasonal debut last time but it was over an inadequate trip and the trainer reckoned he should come on for the run. He's giving quite a lot of weight away today with his penalty so might have to improve on that last outing
Actinpieces gets a lot of weight as a mare and with a claiming jockey. She won first time up at this track last season but the yard has been a bit quiet recently and the jockey has only had a handful of rides in the last 3 months so she might be rusty
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Galway 4.00 - Monksland - win at 4/6 bog betvictor
Conditions chase for horses that have not won more than 1 chase
My selection was a three times grade 2 winning hurdler who went novice chasing last season. He only managed one win in four outings but the other three were all placed efforts in grade one company
Ran Arctic Fire to a half length on his seasonal debut last year so goes well fresh
Is rated a lot higher than his rivals today and his only serious challenger is likely to be Marinero who won impressively last time. But that was his seventh start over fences and first win. He's been on the go over the summer and won't have faced a rival of the class of Monksland but he's fit and in form
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4.20 Sals - Crazy Horse - win at 9/4 bog wm hill
No jumps racing today !
This is a class 3 stakes race over 7F
My selection is a lightly raced 3yo who appears to have had some problems as he's only run 2 times in total
Won the Horris Hill last season and finished 6th in the French Guineas on reappearance, not seen since
Obviously you have to trust that he's not got any problem, presumably they wouldn't be running him if he had. If he's fit and ready to go then this is a drop in class and the conditions look fine.
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2.15 Chep - Dolos - win at 4/5 bog boyles
Juvenile hurdle
A few non runners have turned this into a match
My selection has his first run for Nicholls after finishing 3rd in a Listed hurdle in France. Nichols has won this race 5 times in the last 8 years and safe to say that he usually sends a decent one
Main rival is Rainbow Dreamer who makes his hurdles debut for Alan King, who himself has won this 3 times in the last 10 years. Two of those went on to win grade one races. He was decent on the flat, a stayer but only won 1 from 8 and finished placed quite a lot looking one paced. Just wonder if he'll be quick enough over 2 miles.
I'm trusting in Nicholls and the one with hurdling experience.
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3.15 Chep - Flying Angel - win at 11/4 bog wm hill
Novice chase over 20F
I always used to think of this meeting as the start of the Jumps season proper and this Novice Chase is usually contested by decent horses
The fairly hot favourite is Clan des Obeaux from the Nicholls yard who've been sending out novice chasers to win on debut for a few weeks now
But this one is only 4 years old and to date has proved best on soft ground at around 2 miles. Looks like a staying chaser in the making but there's enough doubt about whether he's ready yet for this company
My selection was a grade 3 winner over sticks, has won on good ground and handles undulating tracks. He's already won over fences, slamming a few 130s rated rivals at Perth last time out. He jumped like a stag and looks a natural and high class novice
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Just now, Trotter said:
NA 4.40 - Louis Phillippe - win at 4/1 bog
Staying handicap chase
Four time Points winner Queen's Bay is pretty high up in the betting but I'm overlooking her as her results over proper fences isn't that great with no wins from 9 runs. She ran OK last time to finish 2nd but was still beaten 11 lengths
I'm concentrating on the two recent CD winners. The current favourite, Mrsrobin, won a class 5, is a novice and a mare and has gone up 13lbs
My selection won a class 4, is an experienced chaser and is a gelding.......and he now gets over a stone from the mare and he's bigger odds.
that's 4/1 bog with Corals.
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NA 4.40 - Louis Phillippe - win at 4/1 bog
Staying handicap chase
Four time Points winner Queen's Bay is pretty high up in the betting but I'm overlooking her as her results over proper fences isn't that great with no wins from 9 runs. She ran OK last time to finish 2nd but was still beaten 11 lengths
I'm concentrating on the two recent CD winners. The current favourite, Mrsrobin, won a class 5, is a novice and a mare and has gone up 13lbs
My selection won a class 4, is an experienced chaser and is a gelding.......and he now gets over a stone from the mare and he's bigger odds.
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Exe 4.05 - Mineelacelebration - win at 4/5 bog wm hill
Beginners chase 3 miles
It's a bit dicey backing horses on their chase debuts at odds on but this looks a very weak race
My selection won 3 staying hurdles last season. He also won 4 Poiints so hopefully can jump a fence. The trainer stated a year ago that he'd be going chasing this season so they've had plenty of time to prepare him
Likes the track and won here over hurdles and has plenty of stamina so should get 3 miles
The second favourite was maybe a better hurdler but Unseated on his last 3 chase starts and doesn't look a natural fencer (flat bred) - he also doesn't strike me as a natural 3 miler on a stiff track
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3.40 Lud - Miss Mobot - win at 5/2 bog wm hill
Mares handicap hurdle
On paper this looks a two horse race between the current favourite, Morning Herald, and my selection
Morning Herald looks the classier horse going forward, has won at the track and seems best going RH and has won on good to firm. So lot's going for her. She makes her seasonal reappearance but won after a long break in March. Her trainer has had a winner recently coming back from a break s can get them ready at home.
My horse has been in sparkling form in weak races winning her last 2 by a combined 50 plus lengths, making all and winning very easily
The question is.......can she get rid of a much better horse who might not be totally sharp on seasonal debut ?
I'm pinning my hopes on the fact that Morning Herald has been a bit of an iffy jumper up to now and my horse might get her out of her comfort zone by blasting off in front
If Morning Herald was 7/4 with my bookie as she is with several others I'd back both of them but she's only 6/4 at SJ and I have a minimum price of 7/4 for backing two horses in a race
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3.55 Tipp - Killiney Court - win at 5/2 bog wm hill
Novice chase
Easy to pick holes in most of these on account of the trip and/or ground
My horse looked pretty useful when easily winning his 3rd chase start two runs ago......front running and conditions fairly similar around 2 and a half miles, cut in the ground. Ran in a decent handicap hurdle last time and did Ok, finishing 4th
Main danger is probably Kildunne who won a beginners chase last time by 9L. However that was his first win on his 29th start and looks like a bit of a fluke, so you wonder if he can do it again..
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3.10 Sou - Debece - win at 7/4 bog wm hill
Novice hurdle
not much recent form to go on here as most of these make their seasonal debuts
I have it in mind that Jonjo's horses usually need a run after a break so I'm looking past the current favourite Utility who ran down the field in the Champion Bumper race at Aintree last backend. He did go off at 4/1 3rd Favourite so is very well regarded
My selection is the only runner with a win over sticks having won a Kempton novice by 8 lengths in May. The yard has started the season with a bang and sent out 5 winners on Sunday, 2 of them coming off breaks
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good luck !
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yeah........cheers BH......seems to be fixed !
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3.55 Tipp - Penhill - win at 10/11 bog wm hill
Grade 3 novice hurdle
I like looking at the better class novice hurdles and chases in the early season.......see if I can spot a Cheltenham winner !
All the best jumps races are in Ireland on Sunday and I'm going for a short priced favourite from the Mullins yard. He slammed the second favourite by 7L last time out and the 2 mile trip looks too short for that one to pose any danger of reversing places. Just to add some piquancy the 2nd Fav is one of the horses removed from Mullins by Gigginstown last week and is now in the hands of Joseph O'Brien.
Dermot Weld's Timiyan might be the main danger
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2.20 Font - More Bucks - win at 2/1 bog bet365
Novices handicap chase
My horse comes from the Nicholls yard and his novice chasers have all been winning on seasonal debut in these early weeks. This one is bred for chasing and was a good jumper over hurdles. Lightly raced but did win a bumper and a novice hurdle
Related to star hurdler Big Bucks
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Hex 3.00 - Lowandbehold - win at 9/2 bog Ladbrokes
Novices handicap chase
my selection is quite experienced for a novice chaser with 6 starts and 2 wins. He's disappointed the last twice but has dropped a few pounds in the weights and is now just 2 lbs above his last winning mark (won by 8L so probably well handicapped)
Mainly though he now returns to a LH tracks after 3 runs at Perth and appears to be better suited going this way round
Monthly Nap Comp - Wed Oct 19th
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
2.20 Worc - Emerald Rose - win at 4/1 bog wm hill
Mares handicap chase over nearly 3 miles
My selection has won here, goes well after a break (won FTO last season) and is a couple of pounds lower than last winning mark from last November. Has run in higher grade races between then and now and drops back into class 4 today