Trotter
-
Posts
14,672 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
37
Posts posted by Trotter
-
-
Chep 1.30 - Pop Rockstar - ew at 20/1 bog wm hill
-
Finian's Oscar appear to be the hype horse here
The 'insiders' think he's a monster even though this is a big step up in class
Being a bit of a sucker for potential over proven ability I'll stick my pin on Finian's Oscar to outstay the Capitaine up the hill
-
3.00 Sandown - Rocky Creek to win at 9/1 bog bet365
-
12.35 Weth - Gregarious - win at 9/2 bog bet365
-
2.40 Sou - Captain Lars - win at 5/2 bog wm hill
-
Ling 2.45 - Ribbing - win at 6/4 bog wm hill
-
1.30 Muss - Proud Gamble - win at 4/1 bog bet365
-
Plu 12.50 - Count Meribel - win at 6/1 bog betvictor
-
12.15 Chelt - Minotaur - win at 13/2 bog wm hill
-
I just assumed they stay further because they're running slower ...............seems obvious that if you run flat out you can't go as far as if you jog and you can go even further if you amble along at a steady walk
Basically the slower you go the further you stay
-
Newb 1.50 - Peak to Peak - win at 16/1 bog bet365
Grade 1 novice hurdle
Just going for Nicholl's runner on the basis that he must have a yard full of decent novices yet he's only running this one entry. The horse won a minor race at Fontwell after which connections said they would take their time with him and slowly move him up in grade. But chucking him straight into grade one company suggest he's been showing a lot at home
-
12.50 Newc - Killermont Street - win at 9/4 bog Ladbrokes
6f nursery
my selection has only had the 2 runs and won on his second outing. He only jus held on close home over 7|F last time to win a maiden so a drop to 6f looks a good option
assuming he'll improve again after just 2 runs he might have a favourable mark off 72 as he beat a 76 rated horse last time getting a few pounds.
-
2,25 Sou - Loveatfirstsight - win at 4/1 bog bet365
7f maiden
Only 3 or 4 of these look likely to get involved and my horse looks fairly reliable having run to a similar level in his four runs to date. Stepping back up to 7F might be a decent option today as he was staying on over a sharp 6F last time
The favourite, Napoleon Solo, has already had 13 goes to break his maiden, Treaty of Rome was a 2.5 Million yearling who recently sold for 3,000 guineas so it's safe to assume he's gone backwards. The other one in the mix is Playful Dude who finished second in a handicap last time but that was a real bottom of the barrel race and you'd think he wouldn't be good enough to win even a moderate maiden race
-
Crikey .........there's a two and a half million dollar yearling running at Southwell today in the maiden race (2.25)
Treaty of Rome made 3 appearances for Aidan O'Brien without troubling the judge and was subsequently sold for 3000 gns
Somebody got their fingers burned there !..............
-
3.30 Ling - Hyland Heather - ew at 20/1 bog wm hill
sprint handicap
my selection is the only 3yo in the field and the least exposed
She took her time to lose her maiden tag but finally came good two runs ago when the cheekpieces were applied for the first
She then had a 3 month break before making her AW debut over CD last time. She was beaten around 4 lengths but might come on for that run and the cheekpieces go back on today
My main concern is the fog .............will we get to the last race before the meeting is abandoned ?
-
2.40 Chep - Beg To Differ - ew at 40/1 bog bet365
Welsh National
Going for an outsider here
My selection has been pretty well beaten both starts this season but does tend to need a run or two. Apparently he's a big horse who needs runs to get him fit. Jonjo is a master at easing horses in to the season with a prep run or two.
He was a very easy winner of a class 3 handicap chase at Sandown last season and looked a potentially good stayer. He was quite well fancied for one of the big handicaps at the Festival but unseated after clipping heels with another horse
Young second season chaser with potential looks a good profile for a race like this
-
Hope everyone had a good Christmas !................
and Happy Birthday to The Chairman, BH...........
I'm skipping the big races and looking at the AW today
4.15 Wolves - Dougan - win at 4/1 bog wm hill
competitive class 2 sprint
all of them have some sort of chance but I think the favourite, Spring Loaded, is worth taking on despite a good AW debut last time. He hasn't won for a while and maybe his OR flatters him a bit after winning 4 on the trot earlier in the year
My selection still looks progressive and is a CD winner. He won a handicap off 98 at Dundalk which is usually pretty competitive as the only winter AW track in Ireland
-
-
5.00 Dun - George Boole - win at 13/8 bog bet365
-
Bang 1.35 - Le Braye - ew at 66/1 bog wm hill
Novice hurdle
Give this one an EW chance after running OK on debut then falling, then getting outclassed at Newbury
Back at a more realistic level today
-
3.30 Ffos - Astigos - win at 15/2 bog wm hill
Handicap chase over 2 miles
My selection has his second run of the campaign after changing yards in November. He finished 8th last time but hopefully can do better today
Since he last won in February he's been well beaten in some class 2/3 races but his mark has now fallen below his last winning one and he's back in class 4 company
Today's favourite pulled up last time and the second favourite is an iffy jumper so it looks open for one of the outsiders
-
Taunton 1.15 - Vincent's Forever - EW at 25/1 bog Coral
Maiden hurdle
My selection was disappointing on hurdle debut last time but he did go off as favourite and has the hood back on today which seemed to suit him on the flat. Also tongue tie first time
He wasn't bad on the flat for John Gosden, rated 82, and won at Kempton over 11F. His other win was at Leicester so a RH track should suit.
-
2.15 Chelm - Kingofmerrows - win at 7/2 bog betvictor
2yp maiden over 6f
My selection is the top rated of those that have been given ratings
There's a few here that have had 4 or 5 chances and are still maidens so it doesn't look too hot. My horse is one of those and is probably flattered by his OR of 78 but then if he running in a nursery off 78 he'd probably be running against better horses so maidens look his best chance
The current favourite looks a similar level to mine but I'm slightly put off by him being 'unlucky in running' last time out ........hampered and had to switch. Some horses tend to make a habit of getting hampered because they haven't got the pace to get out of trouble or go through gaps .........so I'd want to see him not being unlucky before I pick him
-
3.35 Ling - Karisma - win at 3/1 bog bet365
Mile maiden
Karisma hasn't run since the summer but had run in a couple of maidens at big tracks, Ascot and Goodwood. Although pretty well beaten around 10 lengths in both this looks a poor race and she's probably the best of a bad bunch
Today's favourite was well beaten on recent debut at Wolves and is obviously expected to come on for that but finished behind the poor maiden Hidden Gem who re-opposes today
Monthly Nap Comp - Monday Jan 9th
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
3.35 Wolv - Our Channel - win at 15/8 bog wm hill