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allthethings

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  1. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Jun 27th - Jul 2nd   
    If this is what you think will happen, I think it would make more sense to take the 11.50 on offer for CS 2-2. At the current prices, if you win the over at poor odds, you'll lose the draw bet for a push or loss on the day, depending on how you handled the staking.
    Personally I think it's hard to ignore a price of 3.75 on the champions. It's absurd, I don't care how spotty they've been on away lately or whatever. No real motivation on either side, no hfa without fans, and Klopp is the kind of guy who would be delighted to stick it to the rivals. When will you ever see a price this big on Pool again?
     
  2. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in FA Cup Predictions > Mar 2nd - 5th   
    Have to share this little nugget. My database in the FA Cup goes back to 2009, and it's a small sample, but the results in the 8th-finals are surprising. Big dogs away get outright wins at a high rate when they're in the up-to-5.00 range (no matches fit this year), and big home dogs are 0-7-15 (32% draws). The surprising thing is it's the home dogs of greater than 8.00 that are most responsible. Those huge dogs are 0-5-5. Most recent was Rochdale taking Spurs to a replay in 2018 as dogs of 14.74. The year before, Huddersfield (10.80) drew 0-0 with Man City. Oldham, Orient, Stevenage got draws home to Everton, Arsenal, Spurs in 2013-2011 as dogs of around 9.00. Anyway, Sheffield Wednesday home to Man City are currently at 14.00, and with draw at 7.05 you might consider it.
  3. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from Tiffy in FA Cup Predictions > Mar 2nd - 5th   
    Have to share this little nugget. My database in the FA Cup goes back to 2009, and it's a small sample, but the results in the 8th-finals are surprising. Big dogs away get outright wins at a high rate when they're in the up-to-5.00 range (no matches fit this year), and big home dogs are 0-7-15 (32% draws). The surprising thing is it's the home dogs of greater than 8.00 that are most responsible. Those huge dogs are 0-5-5. Most recent was Rochdale taking Spurs to a replay in 2018 as dogs of 14.74. The year before, Huddersfield (10.80) drew 0-0 with Man City. Oldham, Orient, Stevenage got draws home to Everton, Arsenal, Spurs in 2013-2011 as dogs of around 9.00. Anyway, Sheffield Wednesday home to Man City are currently at 14.00, and with draw at 7.05 you might consider it.
  4. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in L1, L2, and Scottish Predictions > Feb 25th - Mar 1st   
    Looking at draws in Sunderland, Oxford and Portsmouth, but it will be a last-minute decision. 
  5. Thanks
    allthethings got a reaction from Johnmccain in Non-League Predictions > February 25th   
    Ebbsfleet 4.31
    Somehow getting crushed by the top side has led to these odds, I guess, and I can't say I understand it These two sides are not as far apart as the odds would suggest, and Fleet's h2h with Maidenhead is dead even, home or away.
  6. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from gruja in Non-League Predictions > February 25th   
    Ebbsfleet 4.31
    Somehow getting crushed by the top side has led to these odds, I guess, and I can't say I understand it These two sides are not as far apart as the odds would suggest, and Fleet's h2h with Maidenhead is dead even, home or away.
  7. Thanks
    allthethings got a reaction from Shep65 in Non-League Predictions > February 25th   
    Ebbsfleet 4.31
    Somehow getting crushed by the top side has led to these odds, I guess, and I can't say I understand it These two sides are not as far apart as the odds would suggest, and Fleet's h2h with Maidenhead is dead even, home or away.
  8. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in FA Cup Predictions > Jan 23rd - 27th   
    Unfortunate result, what with the 24 shots/2 on goal or whatever it was. For the future, though, allow me to suggest an alternative to your DNB.
    You said you were inclined to take Northampton to win. Personally, if I thought that, I would take them to win at 3.62: 10e wins you 26e. Or, you could take the draw at 3.52: 10e wins you 25e.
    When I first started betting on large underdogs, I split bets: half a unit on each, or two-third/one-third on whichever I was more keen on. I discovered pretty quickly that there was no money in it, long term. You end up losing more in 5e increments than you gain in 12e increments, if you get what I'm saying. However, you basically need only to guess right one of every three or four times to show a profit in the long run. When you guess right at 3/1 or 4/1 it covers a multitude of sins (losses).
    It is true that your DNB cost you nothing in this case. Think of it another way: You believed Derby were ripe for the taking, and if you were right that they wouldn't win, your 10e would win 18e, or zero. I think it's better to take one or the other...this is the line of thinking that started me creating spreadsheets to find out what leagues, and what circumstances, throw up underdog wins or draws. When you find a marked tendency toward one or the other result, that's where I believe you have an edge.
  9. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in L1, L2, and Scottish Predictions > Jan 14th - 18th   
    MK Dons X 4.10, Bolton X 4.45
  10. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in EFL Cup Predictions > Jan 7th & 8th   
    What will happen, who knows. What has happened is interesting. Go back 15 years in this competition, and away favorites of under 2.00 do not perform well in the first leg of the semis. Home dogs have gone 4-2-0:
    Wycombe 9.90 1-1 Chelsea 2006-07
    Ipswich 9.44 1-0 Arsenal 2010-11
    Derby 7.79 1-0 Man Utd 2008-09
    Sunderland 4.84 2-1 Man Utd 2013-14
    Bradford 4.27 3-1 Aston Villa 2012-13
    Blackburn 3.47 1-1 Man Utd 2005-06
    In all six, leg two was won at home by the overwhelming favorite.
    Will be interesting to see how Man U do as a dog, as they failed to win three times as a favorite at this point in the competition.
     
  11. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from ivanhoe in EFL Cup Predictions > Jan 7th & 8th   
    What will happen, who knows. What has happened is interesting. Go back 15 years in this competition, and away favorites of under 2.00 do not perform well in the first leg of the semis. Home dogs have gone 4-2-0:
    Wycombe 9.90 1-1 Chelsea 2006-07
    Ipswich 9.44 1-0 Arsenal 2010-11
    Derby 7.79 1-0 Man Utd 2008-09
    Sunderland 4.84 2-1 Man Utd 2013-14
    Bradford 4.27 3-1 Aston Villa 2012-13
    Blackburn 3.47 1-1 Man Utd 2005-06
    In all six, leg two was won at home by the overwhelming favorite.
    Will be interesting to see how Man U do as a dog, as they failed to win three times as a favorite at this point in the competition.
     
  12. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in FA Cup Predictions > Jan 4th - 6th   
    Also Derby 5.38, Northampton 6.03
    As with Sheff Wednesday yesterday, these prices are insane 
  13. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from AussieDex in FA Cup Predictions > Jan 4th - 6th   
    Also Derby 5.38, Northampton 6.03
    As with Sheff Wednesday yesterday, these prices are insane 
  14. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from waynecoyne in FA Cup Predictions > Jan 4th - 6th   
    Also Derby 5.38, Northampton 6.03
    As with Sheff Wednesday yesterday, these prices are insane 
  15. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from vicsuna in Champions League Predictions > Dec 10th & 11th   
    If Chelsea win, Valencia must win, but Ajax need only draw to advance. I think the 4.50 or so on offer for the X in Ajax and Inter will be too good to pass up.
  16. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from craigh in Champions League Predictions > Dec 10th & 11th   
    If Chelsea win, Valencia must win, but Ajax need only draw to advance. I think the 4.50 or so on offer for the X in Ajax and Inter will be too good to pass up.
  17. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Champions League Predictions > Dec 10th & 11th   
    If Chelsea win, Valencia must win, but Ajax need only draw to advance. I think the 4.50 or so on offer for the X in Ajax and Inter will be too good to pass up.
  18. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Dec 7th - 9th   
    In general, if you think Arsenal will be hard-pressed to get a win (I have WHU to win at 3.60), it is better to take either the win or the draw rather than DNB. Yes, it is no fun being right and losing your stake, but you'll do better over time by going for the higher priced option (whichever you choose). With DNB you're basically making the same bet, but you don't win anything if the match ends in a draw. Think of it this way, you have a 60% or 65% chance of being right, but only a 30% chance of cashing the ticket. And if you guess right, you'll win 2.5 times your stake or 3 times your stake.
    I thought about taking the draw, as it's even higher priced at 4.12, but home dogs in EPL at this range of odds get outright wins at a slightly higher rate than draws.
  19. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from vicsuna in Premier League Predictions > Dec 7th - 9th   
    In general, if you think Arsenal will be hard-pressed to get a win (I have WHU to win at 3.60), it is better to take either the win or the draw rather than DNB. Yes, it is no fun being right and losing your stake, but you'll do better over time by going for the higher priced option (whichever you choose). With DNB you're basically making the same bet, but you don't win anything if the match ends in a draw. Think of it this way, you have a 60% or 65% chance of being right, but only a 30% chance of cashing the ticket. And if you guess right, you'll win 2.5 times your stake or 3 times your stake.
    I thought about taking the draw, as it's even higher priced at 4.12, but home dogs in EPL at this range of odds get outright wins at a slightly higher rate than draws.
  20. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from Sportwetten in Premier League Predictions > Dec 7th - 9th   
    In general, if you think Arsenal will be hard-pressed to get a win (I have WHU to win at 3.60), it is better to take either the win or the draw rather than DNB. Yes, it is no fun being right and losing your stake, but you'll do better over time by going for the higher priced option (whichever you choose). With DNB you're basically making the same bet, but you don't win anything if the match ends in a draw. Think of it this way, you have a 60% or 65% chance of being right, but only a 30% chance of cashing the ticket. And if you guess right, you'll win 2.5 times your stake or 3 times your stake.
    I thought about taking the draw, as it's even higher priced at 4.12, but home dogs in EPL at this range of odds get outright wins at a slightly higher rate than draws.
  21. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Champions League Predictions > Nov 26th & 27th   
    Might as well tell you I will in all likelihood be on Zagreb at 5/1 away to Atalanta. Zagreb beat them 4-0 in their first match and sit on 5 points with Donetsk, and I fairly don't believe Atalanta have much to play for at this point.
  22. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Champions League Predictions > Nov 26th & 27th   
    Hello all, been away for a while...lost my job, for one thing. Applications, interviews dominate my time these days.
    Why on earth are Loko Moscow 3/1 at home against Neverkusen? Loko won away in the first match against them, and with both on 3 points, either can put themselves in the driver's seat for the Europa League slot. Home dogs in the latter rounds of this competition are fairly solid, too. Lokomotiv Moskva @ 3.90 (5dimes)
  23. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Europa League Predictions > Mar 14th   
    Worth keeping in mind as potential value bets. Going back a decade in this competition, there have been six previous KOs where the home side in the second leg lost the first leg by 2-3 goals and were then established as dogs to a favorite of under 2.00. Two of those sides won the second leg outright: Molde 1-0 over Sevilla in a round of 16 match in 2016, and Sporting 1-0 over Atletico Madrid in last year's quarterfinals. It's a small sample, but the away sides in this sample know they can lose narrowly and still advance. They may have rotated their sides, as well.
    The other home dog today is Slavia. There have been six other matches in this database with the same circumstances, having drawn the first match or lost by 1. With the tie in the balance, two of those six home dogs have won outright: APOEL 2-0 over Bilbao in a 2017 round of 16 match, and Dnipro, 1-0 over Napoli in a 2015 semifinal.
    Winning 4 of 12 at odds of between 3.70 and 6.00 is pretty good. Actually, one match in each small sample featured a home dog of more than 5.00, and both lost. So at odds of 3.70 to 4.99, home dogs have gone 2-5 and 2-5. If you took all 10 of those over the years, you won 12 units of profit.
  24. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in L1, L2, and Scottish Predictions > Feb 19th - 24th   
    Carlisle 3.88 in League Two
    Stirling 3.80, Queen's Park 4.10 in Scotland
    Running late, sorry
  25. Like
    allthethings got a reaction from sajtion in Europa League Predictions > Feb 20th & 21st   
    Typical. Betis press and press and press for an equalizer, give up a third goal on the last kick of the match.
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