2020 European Championship Last 16 Predictions > Jun 26th - 29th

[StevieDay1983]

The last 16 of the 2020 European Championship is now upon us. Some mouth-watering ties so early in the competition with Belgium versus Portugal and England versus Germany the pick of the bunch. Give us your predictions for these games over the coming days! 

[StevieDay1983]

Wales vs Denmark

The last 16 of the 2020 European Championship kicks off on Saturday afternoon when Wales play Denmark in a 5pm BST start at the Johan Cruyff Arena in Amsterdam. It's going to be another tough fixture for the Welsh who have had a nightmare tournament in terms of logistics thus far and now their own fans have been banned from travelling to the Netherlands so it'll be another game in front of a partisan crowd supporting the opposition.

Wales have exceeded expectations once again at a European Championship by qualifying for the 2nd Round after finishing 2nd in Group A. Robert Page continues to do a cracking job as interim head coach. Not every decision has been right but to navigate Wales through a group including Italy, Switzerland, and Turkey when we played Turkey in front of their own supporters in Baku and faced Italy in Rome is very impressive. It looks like we'll have a full squad available with the exception of Ethan Ampadu who is suspended after his sending off against Italy. There is no doubt that this will be a tough one for Wales. Not only have our fans been refused entry to the Netherlands but Denmark fans have been told they can attend provided they only stay in the country for 12 hours. No idea how they'll police that!

Denmark have become everyone's second favourite team at this tournament after the horrible Christian Eriksen incident in their opening game. The team has done well to galvanize and reach this phase of the competition after finishing 2nd in Group B. Kasper Hjulmand's side have benefited from having all their games so far being played at home in front of a near full capacity crowd. It'll be a different challenge now with them playing in the Netherlands but it will still feel like a home game with their fans being so dominant. It's easy to forget that they did lose 2 of their 3 group games so despite hammering Russia 4-1 in their final group game they've not had the best of results thus far.

This is going to be a tough game for both teams. They are very evenly matched coming into this and you'd have to have made Denmark the favourites if Eriksen was playing. Denmark did beat Wales twice in their two 2018 UEFA Nations League matches. However, Denmark without Eriksen are a different proposition but in Eriksen's absence they've improved as a collective. Wales have been hit and miss so far. At times we've looked brilliant when we take the game to our opponents. When we sit back we invite trouble. If Page sets us up to attack Denmark then I think we can win. If we play it cautiously then we could see ourselves exiting the tournament. Very little to separate these two though and I wouldn't be surprised if this went to extra-time and/or penalties.

Draw @ 3.35 with SBK

BTTS @ 2.35 with SportNation

[StevieDay1983]

Italy vs Austria

The second game up in the last 16 is a clash between Goliath and David where Group A winners Italy will take on Group C runners up Austria in an 8pm BST on Saturday evening at Wembley Stadium. It's looking like the bookies are heavily backing an Italian win and who can blame them? They are looking every bit the potential champions that a few of us predicted pre-tournament.

Italy have looked superb so far. Roberto Mancini has cultivated a squad that plays like a club team. The Azzurri have revolutionised their set-up since the disappointment of failing to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. This team now looks fluid, cohesive, and confident. It was 3 wins from their 3 group stage games. Yes, all three games were at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome and backed by fervent Italian support but the way this team are playing you would back them to give anyone a game right now. It's now 30 matches undefeated for the Italians and they haven't conceded in their last 11 games.

Austria defied the odds by qualifying for the last 16. Franco Foda's side had been awful in their opening two group games despite beating North Macedonia 3-1 and losing to Netherlands 2-0. The bookies heavily backed a draw in their final group game with Ukraine that would have seen both sides progress but, fair play, Austria weren't happy to sit back in that one. A 21st minute winner from Christoph Baumgartner was enough to earn them a win and 2nd place in Group C. Ironically, Ukraine also qualified and got an arguably easier draw in Sweden. It's just 1 defeat in their last 4 games now so are they getting some momentum at the right time?

I think everyone is expecting this to be a business-like win for Italy. Austria did well to get that last game win over Ukraine but do they come close to possessing the qualities that Italy boast within their squad? No. Italy are destined to go far in this tournament. They are playing so well and fighting for each other. I backed them to win it at the start of the tournament and I haven't changed my opinion. Austria will do well to score but I don't think they'll even manage that.

Italy to Win to Nil @ 2.15 with Sporting Index

Italy HT/FT @ 2.45 with RedZone

[peanut peanut]

2-1 Wales 20/1

2-1 Denmark 9/1

2-1 Italy 9/1

2-1 Austria 25/1

 

[StefanBB]

Wales vs Denmark

Wales finished right behind Italy in the group stage and didn’t need to worry about their place in the knockout stage. A draw in the opening round against Switzerland encouraged the Dragons to book a crucial victory against Turkey. Robert Page’s side has been pretty disciplined so far, and they didn’t concede more than a goal in a single game in the tournament. On the other hand, Gareth Bale and the lads converted their chances into goals, and they can be happy with their performances so far. The second-place finish in the group stage allowed them to skip the biggest favorites to win EURO 2020, France. Wales can play without any pressure and try to take another step forward.

Denmark needed to go through the crazy emotional rollercoaster to claim their place in the knockout stage. Everything started with stressful developments around Christian Eriksen’s health condition, through a thrilling game against Belgium, to the happy end against Russia. Finally, Kasper Hjulmand’s side celebrated a crucial 4:1 victory against Russia, launching them to 2^nd place despite losing in the first two rounds. Yussuf Poulsen and the lads showed excellent performance, and they want to continue in the same fashion. Denmark created many goalscoring chances and managed to convert four of them. If they keep a high level of performances, we could see them progressing to the quarter-finals.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

Wales did very well so far, while Denmark finally woke up. Although this game might go either way, we believe Denmark is a slight favorite. De rød-hvide should win this match in 90 minutes and book their place in the next round.

Goals Market Prediction

Danish defense hasn’t been too tight in EURO 2020, and Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey might exploit that. Wales won’t give up without a fight, and we expect both teams to score in this encounter.

Denmark to Win @ 1.90 

BTTS Yes @ 2.30 

Correct score 1:2 @ 10.00

[StefanBB]

Italy vs Austria

Although they haven’t been involved in the most challenging group, Italy left the best impression in EURO 2020 so far. They trashed Turkey and Switzerland, both 3:0, and wrapped up the group stage with a 1:0 win over Wales. This makes their unbeatable streak extending to 30 games, and during that period, Italy drew only five times. Moreover, Roberto Mancini’s side celebrated eleven times in a row, managing to keep the clean sheet in each of those matches. Ciro Immobile and the lads have been clinical in front of the oppositions’ net, failing to score more than once only against Wales on the previous 11 occasions. Italy is among the most serious contenders to win the tournament, and they look forward to advancing to the quarter-finals.

Austria secured a top-two finish in the group stage behind the Netherlands, but they did not shine in the opening two games. Two late goals helped them beat North Macedonia while they lost 2:0 against the Netherlands. After that, however, Franco Foda’s side showed its best display in a 1:0 victory over Ukraine that secured them 2^nd place. Austria has been in variable form lately, winning only twice on the last six occasions. Marko Arnautovic and the lads need to be more productive in the final third, as they scored more than once just once in the previous six games. This is particularly crucial for Austria since Italy has been unbeatable in the back lately. Austria needs a perfect display here to stay in the tournament.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

Italy has been in a much better momentum than their rivals and are firm favorites in this clash. We don’t see Austria being able to surprise Azzurri in this one, and Italy should advance to the quarter-finals without going into the extra time.

Goals Market Prediction

Austria had trouble converting its chances into goals against stronger sides lately, while Italy conceded last time back in November 2020. Therefore, Azzurri might keep their net intact in this encounter as well.

Italy to Win @ 1.45 

BTTS No @ 1.60 

Correct score 2:0 @ 6.50

[harry_rag]

My mate, whose text grammar is interesting to say the least, today asked me what the price was for "Dastardly goal mind"! 

Usually I can work out what he means but I had to ask for a translation. I wondered if it was his nickname for Ronaldo or Lukaku.

Turns out he was after the price for Damsgaard's goal minutes!

ps - based on his record so far during the Euros, this is not a tip!

[harry_rag]

Ok, having read KP's article in the RP  I'm persuaded of their being value in siding with draws and games going to penalties in the knockout stages and, if nothing else, it acts as insurance against watching a dull game! Here's how I've played it for today's and tomorrow's games.

6 x 6 point doubles on the draw at (in order of games played) 23/10, 16/5, 29/10 and 23/10

15 point singles on the game going to penalties at 11/2 (Lads), 8.69 (Lads), 7/1 (Hills) and 11/2 (Hills) (some dutching the price for either team to win on pens)#

4 point doubles on todays' games both going to pens and tomorrow's doing so.

[yossa6133]

Denmark have looked pretty good to me, decent in first half against Finland and Belgium and battered Russia. They just look better than Wales to me. Taken them at evens on SBK. Will probably have a bit on Italy as well.

[allthethings]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Ok, having read KP's article in the RP  I'm persuaded of their being value in siding with draws and games going to penalties in the knockout stages and, if nothing else, it acts as insurance against watching a dull game! Here's how I've played it for today's and tomorrow's games.

6 x 6 point doubles on the draw at (in order of games played) 23/10, 16/5, 29/10 and 23/10

15 point singles on the game going to penalties at 11/2 (Lads), 8.69 (Lads), 7/1 (Hills) and 11/2 (Hills) (some dutching the price for either team to win on pens)#

4 point doubles on todays' games both going to pens and tomorrow's doing so.

It's a decent shout, but over the past 20 years those draws have come later in the bracket, in the semis. It's putting me off the draw in the Wales match, actually, even though you'd expect Wales to do such a thing, as they did against the Swiss. And in fact, the books have priced it that way: 4.81 for the Wales win in 90, 3.22 for the draw. I might be inclined to play on the win for that reason, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Wales's defense is good and, really, the Danes aren't that great without Eriksen. A Wales win wouldn't shock too terribly.

[harry_rag]

5 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

They just look better than Wales to me. Taken them at evens on SBK

Good luck (though I'm rooting for the draw from a betting perspective). Agree that Denmark are better but I think the market has overestimated the gulf, at least when Wales were as big as 9/2. A few player bets for me.

10 points on Ramsey to score at 8/1 Hills - fancy a big game from him and not sure he should be twice the odds of Bale

Buy Moore card minutes for 1.5 points at 9 with SPIN - flies under the radar a bit in the cards market and occasions don't come much bigger than this

10 points on James shown a card at 7/1 Uni - not an obvious card magnet but appeals at bigger than 5/1

16 points on Allen shown a card at 4/1 365 - flagged as the Wales card magnet in the RP tournament preview and tipped today, appeals at the price

6 points on Braithwaite shown a card at 11/1 365 - not that likely but has a recent tendency for cards and couldn't resist at double figure odds. Similar to Moore, a frustrated striker is a reasonable card prospect. Surely they can't both have an easy night's work! 

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, allthethings said:

It's a decent shout, but over the past 20 years those draws have come later in the bracket, in the semis.

Essentially the stats were suggesting 2/1 at most for the draw and 4/1 for pens. That was looking at Euros and World Cup KO stages (with more of a tendency for both in the Euros).

[allthethings]

In the end I took Wales @ 4.65. Simply a value bet, as I agree the sides are closer to even than the odds would suggest, and I hated the 3.10 on offer for the X at my book.

[allthethings]

That looked pretty good for about 11 minutes.

[harry_rag]

15 points on a Veratti assist at 11/2 Hills and 10 points on him to be shown a card at 4/1 PP, 12 points on a Spinazzola assist at 6/1 Lads.

Probably it unless anything leaps out Austria wise.

[StefanBB]

Netherlands vs Czech Republic

The Netherlands advanced from the group stage with all three victories and winning the top spot. However, it wasn’t that easy for Oranje, especially in the opening match. Frank de Boer’s side wasted a 2:0 lead against Ukraine but eventually managed to score for a 3:2 victory. They didn’t shine against Austria either but still booked a 2:0 win. The Netherlands finally showed its real strength against North Macedonia, beating them 3:0. Although it was the least challenging opponent in the group, Oranje’s display was much more attractive than the first two. Memphis Depay and the lads created a lot of goalscoring opportunities and managed to raise the level of their game. The Netherlands want to keep up where they left off and put another excellent display.

The Czech Republic perfectly opened their EURO 2020 campaign, beating Scotland 2:0 at Hampden Park. It turned out to be their crucial victory since they picked up just a point from the following two games. Firstly, Jaroslav Silhavy’s side drew against Croatia 1:1 and got beaten by England in the last match of the group stage. Patrik Schick has been clinical in front of the oppositions’ net, scoring three times so far. However, no other Czech player managed to find the back of the net, and they should provide better support to their teammate. The Czech Republic has been in variable form lately, and they want to improve their performance in this game.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

The Netherlands have been more confident in the group stage, and their form is on the rise. Therefore, we see them as favorites in this clash and believe they will meet the expectations. Our pick would be the Netherlands to win in 90 minutes of the match.

Goals Market Prediction

Head-to-head clashes between these two sides have usually been pretty exciting. The Netherlands is not that tight in the back, and the Czech Republic could exploit that. Therefore, we don’t think nets will remain intact in this encounter.

Netherlands to Win @ 1.70 

BTTS Yes @ 1.85 

Correct score 2:1 @ 9.00

[StefanBB]

Belgium vs Portugal

Belgium heads to the knockout stage after booking the perfect record in Group B. They were very confident against Russia in a 3:0 victory but needed a comeback against Denmark. Finally, the Red Devils managed to crack Finland in the second half of the third game and celebrated a 2:0 victory. Roberto Martinez’s side enjoys an excellent run, as they haven’t tasted a defeat on the previous 12 occasions. During that period, Belgium missed the chance to win only twice. Kevin de Bruyne is back on the team, and he already showed how important he is for Belgium. With Eden Hazard also being available, Belgium wants to go very far in the tournament.

It was a bit stressful for Portugal in the group stage, but they managed to progress to the eighth-finals. At one point, they hit the bottom of the standings during the final round matches, but Cristiano Ronaldo equalized against France. Fernando Santos’s side celebrated just once in EURO 2020 so far, after opening the campaign with a 3:0 win against Hungary. Seleção suffered a 4:2 defeat against Germany and secured a point in the clash against France. Cristiano Ronaldo leveled up with Ali Daei for the number of international goals scored and will look forward to setting a new record. On the other hand, Portugal’s defense will be under severe pressure again since Belgium has significant attacking potential. If they want to keep the title, the defending champions should put a much more disciplined performance.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

It is going to be an exciting clash that can go either way. Both teams have enough quality to reach the very final stages of the tournament, but the road will end for one of them. We see this game going into the extra time and eventually to the penalty shootout. If we have to pick a winner, we think Belgium could be luckier in the penalty roulette.

Goals Market Prediction

Both teams have been very efficient so far, and they can score against any side. However, Portugal is not so tight in the back but can find the back of the net of any opponent. Therefore, we don’t think either side will keep the clean sheet.

Draw @ 3.25 

BTTS Yes @ 1.85

Correct score 1:1 @ 6.50

Belgium to Win the Penalty Shootout @ 10.00

Edited June 26, 2021 by StefanBB

[peanut peanut]

2-1 Holland 8/1

2-1 Czech Republic 18/1

2-1 Belgium 9/1

2-1 Portugal 12/1

[harry_rag]

Belgium v Portugal: 11 points on a De Bruyne assist at 9/2 PP

Tipped at 4/1 by the RP with BF Sportsbook which struck me as big for one of the most prolific providers there is. Happy to take the stake allowed at a half point better. Price elsewhere ranges between 2/1 and 11/4. 

Fair odds probably lie somewhere between 3s and 4s.

[StevieDay1983]

Netherlands vs Czech Republic

The last 16 phase continues on Sunday afternoon with the 5pm BST kick-off between Group C winners Netherlands and Group D third placed side Czech Republic which is set to be played at the Puskas Arena in Budapest. I wasn't very keen to back the Dutch heading into this tournament but credit where it's due they have navigated their way to this stage with ease. Can they progress into the last 8 against a Czech team that have shown they are no pushovers.

Netherlands might not have stood out as one of the main teams impressing in the group stage but they've silenced a lot of critics to a degree. Frank de Boer's side have still looked a little disjointed at times and haven't really been tested so far but they've been getting the results. A dramatic 3-2 win over Ukraine set the tone in their group before their comfortable 2-0 victory over Austria. The Oranje then finished with an effortless 3-0 win against North Macedonia. Georginio Wijnaldum, Memphis Depay, Denzil Dumfries, and Donyell Malen have stood out as the key players so far but will a better team keep them quiet? History hasn't been kind to the Netherlands in European Championship knockout rounds having only progressed from 2 of their last 7 such matches since they won the tournament in 1988. It could be worth backing Depay as an anytime scorer having bagged 9 goals in his last 10 appearances for his country.

Czech Republic have had their fair share of stunning moments in this tournament already. A third place finish in their group seemed a bit harsh given they performed so well in all 3 group matches. The 2-0 win over Scotland in their opening game which included Patrik Schick's halfway line goal got them off to a flyer. Then the 1-1 draw with Croatia was a game they will have felt they could have won. Finally, the 1-0 loss to England was a tough defeat to take given how resilient Jaroslav Silhavy's men were for the duration of the match. History has also not been kind to the Czechs in the knockout stages of this tournament having been eliminated in 3 of their last 4 knockout games at a European Championship. The nation has also won just 1 of their last 7 matches at major tournaments.

This is a fixture that has a history of being closely contested with lots of goals being scored. The last meeting was back in October 2015 when Netherlands won 3-2 against Czech Republic in a 2016 European Championship qualifier. In the last meeting between the sides at a major tournament it ended 3-2 to the Czechs who came from 2-0 down to win the encounter at the 2004 European Championship. I wouldn't be surprised to see goals scored here either. I think Netherlands should sneak through but it's going to be close.

Netherlands to Win @ 1.66 with SBK

BTTS @ 1.95 with SportNation

[StevieDay1983]

Belgium vs Portugal

One of the most enthralling ties of the last 16 coming up is the 8pm BST kick-off on Sunday night between Group B winners Belgium and Group F third placed team Portugal at La Cartuja in Seville. Both of these two teams have been tipped to go far in this tournament and I even predicted Portugal would potentially reach the final. One team is facing elimination here though but who will it be?

Belgium have looked even closer to the real deal than they did 3 years ago at the 2018 World Cup. Roberto Martinez guided his team to the semi-finals in that tournament and with the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Kevin De Bruyne looking in fine form you have to argue that they are going to take some stopping this time around. The Red Devils eased through their group with a convincing 3-0 win over Russia in their opponent's back yard, a tight 2-1 win against a spirited Denmark, and then a business-like 2-0 victory over a dogged Finland. The attacking threat posed by Belgium is clear to see in their statistics having only failed to score in 2 of their last 58 matches. De Bruyne has only played 134 minutes of football at this tournament but has already been directly involved in 3 of his country's goals.

Portugal are blessed with a wealth of creative talent with the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, and Bernardo Silva all in their squad. A Selecao scraped through as a best third placed team from the Group of Death. It started well with the fortuitous 3-0 win over a resolute Hungary. A disappointing 4-2 loss to Germany left their qualification hopes hanging by a thread. Fernando Santos led his team to a sterling 2-2 draw with world champions France to seal their place in the last 16. Defensive issues have seen Portugal already concede 6 goals. Ronaldo is back to his best though with 5 goals scored already. Even though 3 of those goals have been from the penalty spot.

On the face of it, this looks a very tough game to call. Portugal are undefeated in their 5 meetings with Belgium but this is the first time they will have met at a major international tournament. My mind keeps changing as I think this one through. I think Belgium have the quality to dispose of Portugal but Portugal have once again shown they know how to navigate their way through a tournament process. They get the job done. I think they could get the job done here as well but it might require extra-time or penalties.

Draw @ 3.32 with Matchbook

BTTS @ 1.87 with SBK

[harry_rag]

Holland v Czech Rep:

15 points on a Malen assist at 9/2 PP - happy to stick with him at that price after an impressive game last time out

16 points on Wijnaldum to score at 4.1 on BF - I just think he's a standing order at 4+ in games where the Dutch are favourites, look at his record

14 points on Kaderabek shown a card at 5/1 365 - RP tip, been brought in and up against the flying Denzel Dumfries

As posted yesterday, I've got the draw in today's games in doubles with yesterday's so one in so far. Also on penalty shootouts.

[harry_rag]

3 points on Soucek to score a header at 22/1 Sky Bet - ok price and an interest at any Czech set pieces

4 points on Wijnaldum to score at 5 on BF - surprising drift for me, topped stake up to 20 at average odds of 4.28

[StefanBB]

Croatia vs Spain

The World Cup 2018 runner-ups secured 2^nd place in the group stage thanks to the victory against Scotland in the last round. They opened the campaign by losing to England 1:0, while Croatia snatched a point in a 1:1 draw against the Czech Republic. Zlatko Dalic’s side hasn’t been playing very well lately, as they booked only one victory in the previous five matches. However, that one came in the most crucial game for Croatia. Luka Modric was instrumental for Vatreni in a 3:1 win against Scotland after scoring a screamer and packing the third goal. A very challenging task is ahead of Croatia, but they want to repeat the display from their latest head-to-head clash back in 2018.

Spain had a slow start into the EURO 2020 campaign, as they failed to win in the first two rounds. Sweden resisted in a goalless draw in the opening match, while Poland also snatched a point in a 1:1 draw. Therefore, La Furia Roja desperately needed a victory against Slovakia in order to stay in the tournament. Alvaro Morata’s missed penalty made the home fans nervous, but Spain quickly resolved any doubts around their win. They had a 2:0 lead already at halftime and eventually managed to trash rivals 5:0. That was a massive boost of confidence for Spain, as they haven’t been very consistent lately. A tricky opponent is ahead of them, but Spain hopes to keep the high-performance level from the last match.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

Croatia will definitely search for its chances to stun Spain and progress to the quarter-finals. However, Spain seems to be in better momentum, and they are favorites in this clash. We believe La Furia Roja will meet the expectations and progress to the next stage.

Goals Market Prediction

These two sides faced each other on several occasions in the previous five years. Their latest three encounters went over a 2.5 margin, and this one shouldn’t be much different. Therefore, we expect to see at least three goals in total in this clash.

Spain to Win @ 1.60 

Over 2.5 FT @ 2.10 

Correct score 1:3 @ 15.00

[StefanBB]

France vs Switzerland

The current World champions perfectly opened the campaign after beating Germany 1:0. However, it is their only win in EURO 2020, as they were involved in two draws as well. First, Hungary showed that France is vulnerable and fought for a 1:1 tie. Then, Didier Deschamps’s side faced the defending champions Portugal in the latest round of the group stage and split points in a 2:2 draw. France hasn’t tasted a defeat on the previous ten occasions, missing the chance to win only three times during that period. After keeping the clean sheet five times in a row, France conceded in its last two matches. Kylian Mbappe and the lads are the hottest favorites to win the tournament, but they need to be more confident. France will have selection troubles on the left-back, as Lucas Digne will be sidelined, while Lucas Hernandez is doubtful.

Switzerland opened its campaign with a 1:1 draw against Wales but failed to an easy 3:0 defeat against Italy. However, Vladimir Petkovic’s side celebrated a crucial 3:1 win against Turkey, which sealed its place in the eighth-finals. Switzerland has certain troubles keeping its net intact, as they managed to secure their net only once in the last six matches. On the other hand, Haris Seferovic and the lads have been pretty efficient, failing to score only once on the previous 12 occasions. They head to this clash with no pressure to win but motivated to put a disciplined performance, leading them to a positive result. Nevertheless, Switzerland needs its best display so far to get the chance to progress further.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

Despite not being as confident as expected, France is a firm favorite in this encounter. They are among the hottest contenders to win the trophy, and we believe France will win this match in 90 minutes.

Goals Market Prediction

Switzerland has been involved in high-scoring matches recently, and only three of the last 12 games remained under a 2.5 margin. Since they have been clinical in the front lately, and with France’s massive attacking potential, we could see at least three goals in this encounter.

France to Win @ 1.60 

Over 2.5 FT @ 2.20 

Correct score 3:1 @ 17.00

[peanut peanut]

2-1 Croatia 22/1

2-1 Spain 17/2

2-1 France 8/1

2-1 Switzerland 25/1

[StevieDay1983]

Croatia vs Spain

The penultimate day of last 16 action at the 2020 European Championship begins on Monday afternoon with the 5pm BST kick-off between Group D runners up Croatia and Group E runners up Spain at the Parken Stadium in Copenhagen. This is set to be an evenly matched game with both sides arguably disappointed they couldn't finish top of their respective groups.

Croatia haven't quite looked like the team that reached the 2018 World Cup Final but that's to be expected with a number of experienced players retiring since then and other key players getting older. Zlatko Dalic will still feel his team have what it takes to reach the last 8 here. The 1-0 loss to England and 1-1 draw against Czech Republic were disappointing but the 3-1 win over Scotland showed that they still have that quality within their ranks. Luka Modric rolling back the years and Ivan Perisic showing he's still a world class operator. The bad news is that Croatia have failed to progress past the first knockout game in their last three European Championships. Scoring goals is still a strength of this Croatian side. Since the start of the 2018 World Cup they have failed to score in just 1 of their last 10 matches at major tournaments.

Spain finally showed their potential in their dominant 5-0 win over Slovakia in their last group game. The 0-0 draw with Sweden and 1-1 draw with Poland before that game provided evidence that Luis Enrique's side had the qualities to perform well but they just lacked that cutting edge in the final third. This remains a team that is nowhere near the level of those legendary Spanish squads that won the 2008 and 2012 European Championships and the 2010 World Cup. There is still enough talent to make them contenders here though. Unfortunately, Spain have failed to reach the Quarter-Finals at the last three major international tournaments. It's interesting to note that Spain's 6 goals during the group stage were all scored by different players showing they have goals across the pitch.

This will be an intriguing game. Croatia did beat Spain 3-2 when the sides last met in the 2018/19 UEFA Nations League but in the encounter prior to that it was Spain who inflicted a record 6-0 loss on the Croatians. Both teams have evolved a lot since those meetings but they remain evenly poised heading into this game. I think Spain just hold the edge in terms of quality but so much depends on their clinical nature in the final third. If they can take their chances then Spain should win. If they don't then Modric et al will seize the opportunity to steal a victory.

Spain to Win & BTTS @ 4.33 with Bet365

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 2.34 with SBK

[StevieDay1983]

France vs Switzerland

The second game in the last 16 schedule on Monday is the 8pm BST kick-off between Group F winners France and Group A third place side Switzerland at the Arena Nationala in Bucharest. It seems that the bookies are heavily backing the reigning world champions to win this but both teams have only managed one win at this year's tournament so far so maybe it's not as cut and dry as the bookies make out.

France faced a tough challenge getting out of Group F with Germany and Portugal amongst their opponents and even though it wasn't all smooth sailing Didier Deschamps managed to lead his World Cup winners to the top of the group. The reward was avoiding a last 16 tie with Belgium or England and coming up against an inconsistent Switzerland team. Les Bleus do have their issues coming into this game. Both Lucas Hernandez and Lucas Digne went off injured in their last group game against Portugal and rumours are that Deschamps will switch to a 3-5-2. It's now just 1 loss from their last 17 combined World Cup and European Championship matches for France. That was the 1-0 loss in the 2016 European Championship Final to Portugal. This French side also haven't suffered defeat in 2 years in a run that stretches over 19 games.

Switzerland needed to pull off a dramatic 3-1 win over Turkey in their final group game and then await other results before their 3rd placed finish in Group A was deemed enough to see them through. Vladimir Petkovic's side have looked brilliant at their best in that victory over Turkey but they've also looked defensively fragile against Italy and impotent up front against Wales. This is now the fourth consecutive major tournament where the Swiss have qualified for the knockout stages. If they're to get anything in this game then they'll need Xherdan Shaqiri to repeat his inspired performance against Turkey and for their attacking threats such as Breel Embolo and Haris Seferovic to be on the mark. Not to mention a defensive unit that does not crumble.

This really is France's game to lose. The world champions have shown glimpses of their best qualities but have also looked a little vulnerable at times. Going down 1-0 to Hungary was an example of that and the fact they could only manage a draw in that match shows this French side isn't invincible. Switzerland will fancy their chances to have a pop at a France team that is reeling after the Hernandez and Digne injuries. For me, that's a big factor. These sides have met four times previous in major international tournaments with France going unbeaten in their encounters. I do think France should win but it's going to be a tough one for them to navigate past.

Draw HT/ France FT @ 4.50 with SBK

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.72 with SBK

[harry_rag]

I'm carrying on with the draw doubles and penalty shootout bets for the next 4 games.

6 x 6 point doubles on the draw at 29/10, 11/4, 23/10 and 85/40 with 888

15 point singles on each game to go to penalties at 6/1 Hills, 13/2 Lads, 11/2 Lads and 5/1 Hills

2 x 4 point doubles on the Hills pair and the Lads pair.

[harry_rag]

A few things that I fancy in this game where the price appeals enough to bet on them.

20 points on Spain >6.5 corners at 31/20 Uni

20 points on >40 booking points at 6/4 PP

20 points on Brozovic shown a card at 11/4 Fred

15 points on Rebic shown a card at 4/1 PP

12.5 points on Caleta-Car shown a card at 4/1 365