2020 European Championship Last 16 Predictions > Jun 26th - 29th

[harry_rag]

Late match on Torres to score, 15 points at 4.1 on BF.

[harry_rag]

3 for me in the France v Switzerland game.

20 points on Griezmann to score at 3.8 on BF - looks underestimated v the prices for his 2 fellow strikers

7 points on a Zuber assist at 10/1 with PP - may have shot his bolt with 3 in the last game but I'll take a chance at that price, even against France

15 points on Freuler shown a card at 5.62 on BF (9/2 with 365) - looks the pick of the Swiss players at the price, Xhaka being the obvious (but short) candidate

[StefanBB]

England vs Germany

England heads to this game after securing the pole position in Group D. They opened the campaign with a narrow 1:0 victory over Croatia but held by Scotland to a goalless draw. In the battle for the top spot in the group stage, Raheem Sterling and the lads celebrated another 1:0 win. Gareth Southgate’s side has been unbeatable in the back, as they still haven’t conceded in EURO 2020. Considering the warm-up games, the Three Lions managed to keep their net intact on five occasions. On the other hand, England hasn’t been too productive, as they also failed to score more than a goal in each of those five matches. Their game isn’t too attractive, but it brought decent results so far. The hosts aim for another disciplined performance that could keep them in the tournament.

It has been a stressful campaign for the Germans as they barely managed to reach the knockout stage. They lost to France in their first match in the tournament but got back with a 4:2 victory over Portugal. However, everybody thought Elf would have an easy job against Hungary in Munich, but they needed to save a 2:2 draw. Joachim Low’s side was on the verge of elimination from EURO 2020, but a late goal brought them a vital point. Mats Hummels and the lads have severe troubles in the back as they failed to keep the clean sheet six times in a row. On the other hand, Germany didn’t score only against France in the last six matches. Elf need to do much better in the back if they want to secure a place in the quarter-finals.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

It is going to be a very tight clash, and both sides have equal chances of advancing to the quarter-finals. England is a slight favorite due to a better form and the home ground, but Germany shouldn’t be written off. We wouldn’t be surprised if this game goes into the extra time.

Goals Market Prediction

While England has been involved in low-scoring matches lately, we could see a lot of goals in Germany’s games. However, since the stake is very high in this match, we shouldn’t expect to see too many goals. Therefore, we believe this encounter will stay under a 2.5 margin.

Draw @ 3.30 

Under 2.5 FT @ 1.70 

Correct score 0:0 @ 9.00

[StefanBB]

Sweden vs Ukraine

Sweden couldn’t wish for a better campaign, as they topped Group E ahead of Spain. They snatched a draw against La Furia Roja in the opening round, which gave them a massive boost of confidence. It resulted in a narrow 1:0 victory over Slovakia and a 3:2 win over Poland. Except for the game against Orly, Janne Andersson’s side has been pretty tight in the back. Blågult conceded only once in seven games, while those two goals against Poland don’t hurt too much. Emil Forsberg and the lads enjoy an excellent run, as they haven’t lost eight times in a row, and they want to keep up where they left off. Sweden is in positive momentum, and they want to remain on the winning track.

Ukraine secured its place in the knockout round, being among the best 3^rd-placed teams. Andriy Shevchenko’s side had a decent opener against the Netherlands, but despite equalizing after being down 2:0, they lost 3:2. Roman Yaremchuk and the lads secured a vital 2:1 win over North Macedonia and had 2^nd place in their pocket. However, a narrow defeat against Austria and an abysmal display raised concerns in Zbirna. Ukraine needs to put much better performance to stay in the tournament, as they have been pretty inconsistent lately. Zbirna needs to be tighter in defense to improve chances to secure a result that can lead them to the quarter-finals.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

Sweden has been in much better form, and we consider them favorites in this clash. Although Ukraine could be a tricky opponent, we believe Sweden can keep up where it left off and continue its EURO 2020 campaign.

Goals Market Prediction

Blågult have been very hard to crack, and Ukraine could have severe troubles against disciplined Swedish defense. Therefore, it might be a tight clash, in which we shouldn’t expect to see more than two goals in total.

Sweden to Win @ 2.40 

Under 2.5 FT @ 1.55 

Correct score 1:0 @ 7.00

[peanut peanut]

2-1 England 10/1

2-1 Germany 11/1

2-1 Sweden 10/1

2-1 Ukraine 11/1

[waynecoyne]

England v Germany

Leon Goretzka is rumoured to be starting against England.

He came on as sub v Hungary and scored.

He scores around 1 goal per every 3 league games for Bayern and has 14 in 34 international appearances.

i will buy his goal minutes at 7 (sporting index)

8/1 anytime scorer looks too big also

[StevieDay1983]

England vs Germany

It's the final day of the last 16 at the 2020 European Championship and it's a banger of a clash to get us started. The history of a game hardly has more intensity than England versus Germany and the two nations meet at 5pm BST at Wembley Stadium on Tuesday afternoon. Forget the political differences these nations have endured years ago. That means nothing. It's all about the wealth of history that this fixture has enjoyed on the pitch.

England came into this tournament as one of the dark horses to win it. Some even labelled them as one of the favourites. Gareth Southgate's men will have seen the way the knockout round has gone so far and will undoubtedly be thinking that maybe this is starting to go their way. Netherlands are gone. Croatia are gone. France are gone. Portugal are gone. Big names are tumbling. If the Three Lions can navigate their way past an inconsistent German side then it's Sweden or Ukraine in the Quarter-Finals and then potentially Czech Republic or Denmark in the Semi-Finals. One game at a time though. England haven't beaten Germany at a major tournament knockout game since their World Cup win in 1966. Germany have defeated England at the 1970 World Cup, 1990 World Cup, 1996 European Championship, and 2010 World Cup. Interestingly, England have never won a European Championship knockout round game within 90 minutes. If you're looking for an anytime scorer bet then not only has Raheem Sterling scored two goals in this tournament already but he's bagged 14 goals in his last 19 international appearances.

Germany may not be the behemoth that stormed to the 2014 World Cup trophy 7 years ago but they are certainly not a team to under-estimate. Joachim Low will want to exit as head coach on a high. It's been a mixed bag for the Germans so far with the 1-0 loss to France an underwhelming display but the 4-2 win against Portugal that followed was mesmerising. However, they did end the group phase with a disappointing 2-2 draw with Hungary but it was enough to see them qualify in 2nd place. Germany have pedigree in the European Championship having won the competition three times, finished as runners up three times, and have reached the Semi-Finals in the past three editions. Unfortunately, defensive issues still plague this team with them having conceded at least once in each of their last 8 matches at major international tournaments.

This will be the third time these two nations have met at a European Championship. Germany prevailed as 6-5 winners on penalties after a 1-1 draw after extra-time in 1996 and England won 1-0 in the group stage in 2000. It will be the 13th time the two teams have played each other at Wembley and England haven't won any of the last 7 encounters. You would have to say England are probably slight favourites heading into this game but you can never write off the Germans. I wouldn't be surprised if this went to penalties. Who progresses? It's anyone's guess.

Draw @ 3.40 with SBK

Anytime Scorer: Raheem Sterling @ 3.40 with SBK

[StevieDay1983]

Sweden vs Ukraine

The final game in the last 16 at this tournament comes up at 8pm BST on Tuesday night when Group E winners Sweden play Group C third placed finishers Ukraine at Hampden Park in Glasgow. Neither of these teams were predicted to have any major impact on this competition but both sides now stand just one game away from a place in the Quarter-Finals.

Sweden have impressed a lot of people so far in this tournament. Head coach Janne Andersson saw his team top a potentially difficult group after drawing 0-0 with Spain before beating Slovakia 2-0 and Poland 3-2. Two clean sheets will be particularly pleasing for the Swedes as they enter the knockout phase. It is just the third time that Sweden have reached the knockout stage of a European Championship. It's now 7 wins from 8 matches in 2021 for this team. If there is one word to describe Sweden so far it's efficient. They may well have completed the fewest number of passes in the group stage and possessed the worst passing accuracy but only Portugal boasted a better shots on target to goal ratio. One player to keep an eye on is Emil Forsberg. The RB Leipzig midfielder has now scored 4 goals in his last 4 games for his country.

Ukraine somehow just managed to squeak into the last 16 after earning just 3 points from their group games. A narrow 3-2 loss to Netherlands was followed by a closely fought 2-1 win over North Macedonia. However, the 1-0 loss to Austria in their last group game left them needing results from other groups to go their way. Head coach Andrei Shevchenko has seen his team been given a stay of execution. This is the first time they have reached the knockout round of a European Championship. Amazing considered they have lost 7 of their last 8 games played at the tournaments so far. The nation is still yet to keep a clean sheet at a European Championship either. I think it's fair to say that the statistics are not exactly falling in their favour.

This will be the fifth meeting between these two countries. Ukraine boast the superior record with Sweden only managing one win against their opponents for this game down the years. The last time these two teams met was back in the 2012 European Championship when Ukraine sealed a 2-1 win thanks to two goals from their current head coach and former striker Shevchenko. I'm not sure which way this one will go. Ukraine have looked decent at times but seem to have lapses in focus that prove costly. Sweden have almost blagged their way to this stage but have looked decent in the process. I wouldn't be surprised if this one went all the way to penalties either.

Draw @ 3.30 with SBK

BTTS @ 2.10 with SportNation

[harry_rag]

20 hours ago, harry_rag said:

20 points on Spain >6.5 corners at 31/20 Uni

Whilst I'm still stunned that this didn't cop after they got 6 in the first half I'm reasonably happy with the 260 point profit from the rest of the bets! After 2 blank days for fixed odds bets on here it looked up a bit yesterday.

Draw double landed with today's games still to come, penalty shootout landed (also rolling over as a double with the England game), Torres goal and 2 players carded in the 1st game and the 10/1 Zuber assist in the last one. 

Let's see what today has in store.

ps -  also good to see all these substitute goals going in as my buy of total sub goals was looking a little green around the gills after just 7 in 36 knockout games!

[Heisenberg68]

9 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

 

Draw double landed with today's games still to come, penalty shootout landed (also rolling over as a double with the England game), Torres goal and 2 players carded in the 1st game and the 10/1 Zuber assist in the last one. 

Let's see what today has in store.

ps -  also good to see all these substitute goals going in as my buy of total sub goals was looking a little green around the gills after just 7 in 36 knockout games!

What is the value of 1 point ? 

[harry_rag]

4 hours ago, waynecoyne said:

Leon Goretzka is rumoured to be starting against England.

He came on as sub v Hungary and scored.

He scores around 1 goal per every 3 league games for Bayern and has 14 in 34 international appearances.

i will buy his goal minutes at 7 (sporting index)

8/1 anytime scorer looks too big also

8s appears to have been snaffled. I'd have made that slightly the better value but not much in it at best price now. At least with the spreads your bet is void if he doesn't start. Here's a question for you, what would you make fair odds for a sub to score in tonight's games (including extra time)? I've seen it priced and am trying to weigh it up after only 7 in 36 group games followed by as many again in 6 knockout games! 

I think we can assume 7 in 6 to be a little freakish, the spread firms expect another 3 or 4 in the remaining 9 games.

[harry_rag]

38 minutes ago, Heisenberg68 said:

What is the value of 1 point ? 

I mistook that for a philosophical question at first!

I think the whole point of points is to avoid stating monetary amounts whilst giving people an idea of the differing stake levels for each bet. In the unlikely event anyone was following my weird and wonderful bets they could decide for themselves how much to have on each one.

If I said it was 10p then people would probably say what's the point of such piddling bets, if I claimed it was £100 then people would probably write me off as a bullsh*tter. Maybe it fluctuates as it's related to bank size.

Each to their own according to means and risk appetite but if anyone was following the staking I'd suggest no less than £1 per point and no more than £5.

[Heisenberg68]

12 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I mistook that for a philosophical question at first!

 

You have one hour for respond ?

Edited June 29, 2021 by Heisenberg68

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Here's a question for you, what would you make fair odds for a sub to score in tonight's games (including extra time)? I've seen it priced and am trying to weigh it up after only 7 in 36 group games followed by as many again in 6 knockout games! 

I think we can assume 7 in 6 to be a little freakish, the spread firms expect another 3 or 4 in the remaining 9 games.

It's 19/10 a sub scores in the England games and 2/1 the later on. Great if you're swayed by 7 in 6 KO games (3 in 2 and 1 in another so 3 out of 6), less so if you think the spreads are right to expect another 3 or 4 in the last 9 games. I'll leave it given that I've already bought total sub goals, prices look about right to me.

I've bought England booking hotshots for 2 points at 24 with SPIN (Walker, Maguire, Phillips and Rice). Decent enough chance of one or more of them getting a card.

I've also had 3 points (all I was allowed) on Kroos >77.5 passes at 5/6 365. A decent sounding RP tip, line and price unchanged and similar line 2/7 elsewhere. Not really my bag and I won't be counting them but I was curious to see how much I'd be allowed on and thought I might as well have it.

[harry_rag]

Surprising line up from England, maybe that sub to score bet looks a bit more attractive now! Certainly most of the young attacking talent kept in reserve to be unleashed from the bench!

On these (couple of others pending being matched).

10 points on Kimmich assist at 6/1 PP

5.5 points on Gosens assist at 9/1 Sky Bet

8 points on Gosens to score at 11.5

[waynecoyne]

31 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

It's 19/10 a sub scores in the England games and 2/1 the later on. Great if you're swayed by 7 in 6 KO games (3 in 2 and 1 in another so 3 out of 6), less so if you think the spreads are right to expect another 3 or 4 in the last 9 games. I'll leave it given that I've already bought total sub goals, prices look about right to me.

I've bought England booking hotshots for 2 points at 24 with SPIN (Walker, Maguire, Phillips and Rice). Decent enough chance of one or more of them getting a card.

I've also had 3 points (all I was allowed) on Kroos >77.5 passes at 5/6 365. A decent sounding RP tip, line and price unchanged and similar line 2/7 elsewhere. Not really my bag and I won't be counting them but I was curious to see how much I'd be allowed on and thought I might as well have it.

i'd leave it @harry_raggiven the negative england line up. 3 or 4 may be a little low for the longer term bet,  but i'm not tempted. As to working odds out i'm not that sophisticated. i tend do things more on an intuitive basis trying to determine if a price looks wrong.

[Labrador]

Not surprised by the line up but have to feel sorry for Foden and Grealish.

Is there a spread on the number of completed passes by England players in their own half?

Hope I'm wrong but I think this game will be a big comedown on what we have witnessed over the last couple of days.

[harry_rag]

I'm on the Goretzka anytime, 8 points at 9 on BF.

That just leaves some shown a card bets that probably won't get matched.

[waynecoyne]

1 minute ago, Labrador said:

Not surprised by the line up but have to feel sorry for Foden and Grealish.

Is there a spread on the number of completed passes by England players in their own half?

Hope I'm wrong but I think this game will be a big comedown on what we have witnessed over the last couple of days.

we're relying on maguire and saka for creativity-pathetic

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, Labrador said:

Hope I'm wrong but I think this game will be a big comedown on what we have witnessed over the last couple of days.

If there was a way of betting on that it would be my nap! A dull draw and pens would suit me from a betting perspective but yesterday's games showed that draws don't have to be dull.

[waynecoyne]

2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I'm on the Goretzka anytime, 8 points at 9 on BF.

That just leaves some shown a card bets that probably won't get matched.

good luck

[harry_rag]

Sweden v Ukraine:

15 points on Yarmolenko to score at 9/2 with Hills

8 points on Larsson shown a card at 9/2 with PP

[harry_rag]

On 6/29/2021 at 4:28 PM, waynecoyne said:

i'd leave it @harry_raggiven the negative england line up. 3 or 4 may be a little low for the longer term bet,  but i'm not tempted. As to working odds out i'm not that sophisticated. i tend do things more on an intuitive basis trying to determine if a price looks wrong.

4 out of 8 games where subs scored in the end, still insufficient data to know if 2/1 or so is a generous price. I'd probably lay it shorter if it was me though. 

8/5, 11/5, 7/4 and 2/1 in the quarters, just had a look.

[waynecoyne]

On 6/29/2021 at 1:37 PM, harry_rag said:

8s appears to have been snaffled. I'd have made that slightly the better value but not much in it at best price now. At least with the spreads your bet is void if he doesn't start. Here's a question for you, what would you make fair odds for a sub to score in tonight's games (including extra time)? I've seen it priced and am trying to weigh it up after only 7 in 36 group games followed by as many again in 6 knockout games! 

I think we can assume 7 in 6 to be a little freakish, the spread firms expect another 3 or 4 in the remaining 9 games.

@harry_ragi was thinking about your comparison of a spread v fixed odds and how to do so. Does this work for example?

goretzka 7 to buy on spread 8/1 fixed odds. spread win = 90-7=83/2=41.5/7=5.9/1

so 6/1 would be the equivalent fixed odds price , therefore 8/1 better option?????

this wouldnt factor in him not starting

[harry_rag]

@waynecoyne I’ll reply properly later but can I just ask, what’s the logic in dividing the 83 (maximum win for a single goal) by 2? I’m guessing it’s an attempt to average out what you might win, given that the time of any goal is unknown in advance?

[waynecoyne]

32 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

@waynecoyne I’ll reply properly later but can I just ask, what’s the logic in dividing the 83 (maximum win for a single goal) by 2? I’m guessing it’s an attempt to average out what you might win, given that the time of any goal is unknown in advance?

its an average @harry-rag

[waynecoyne]

Just now, waynecoyne said:

its an average @harry-rag

@harry_rag

[waynecoyne]

35 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

@waynecoyne I’ll reply properly later but can I just ask, what’s the logic in dividing the 83 (maximum win for a single goal) by 2? I’m guessing it’s an attempt to average out what you might win, given that the time of any goal is unknown in advance?

I didnt consider that he could get more than 1 goal on the spread

[harry_rag]

Ok @waynecoyne I can bore for England on this subject so I'll try and stay on point! I didn't understand your equation at first but I worked it out as I was typing the question, i.e. that the divide by 2 aspect was to average out the unknown factor of when any goal would be scored.

I have a slightly easier method that works along similar lines, based on the average time of a goal being 50 (e.g. if a match has a goals expectation of 2.5 then the total goal minutes will be around 125). So we assume that, in the long run, the average time of a goal scored by our players will be 50. 50/7 = decimal odds of 7.14 compared to your equation giving 6.93.

This is how my method compares to yours at prices of 5, 10 and 20 (yours in brackets).

5 = 10 (9.5), 10 = 5 (5) and 20 = 2.5 (2.75)

So prices are in a similar ballpark, yours are shorter <10 and longer >10! I'd suggest either method is ok as a quick rule of thumb for longshots (say 4/1 +) but less accurate at shorter prices due to the increased chance of the player scoring 2 or more goals. Maybe the "50" method is a bit easier to do.

I need to pause there; part two after lunch, the joys of the poisson distribution!

[waynecoyne]

26 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Ok @waynecoyne I can bore for England on this subject so I'll try and stay on point! I didn't understand your equation at first but I worked it out as I was typing the question, i.e. that the divide by 2 aspect was to average out the unknown factor of when any goal would be scored.

I have a slightly easier method that works along similar lines, based on the average time of a goal being 50 (e.g. if a match has a goals expectation of 2.5 then the total goal minutes will be around 125). So we assume that, in the long run, the average time of a goal scored by our players will be 50. 50/7 = decimal odds of 7.14 compared to your equation giving 6.93.

This is how my method compares to yours at prices of 5, 10 and 20 (yours in brackets).

5 = 10 (9.5), 10 = 5 (5) and 20 = 2.5 (2.75)

So prices are in a similar ballpark, yours are shorter <10 and longer >10! I'd suggest either method is ok as a quick rule of thumb for longshots (say 4/1 +) but less accurate at shorter prices due to the increased chance of the player scoring 2 or more goals. Maybe the "50" method is a bit easier to do.

I need to pause there; part two after lunch, the joys of the poisson distribution!

presumably @harry_ragthe 50 factors in that more goals are scored in the second half (i'm assuming this is so)