Non-League Predictions > 23rd March

[Darran]

I have a couple of bets tonight both at biggish prices.

Altrincham v Kings Lynn

Kings Lynn haven't won in 7 and Altrincham have just 1 win in 10, but take out a 3-0 loss to Woking and a 3-1 loss to Wealdstone the away side have actually been performing really well against some of the best sides in the division. That comes despite the fact they have furlough players and are down to the bare bones. This is another long away trip after going to Torquay on Saturday, but it was another small defeat. Altrincham are not playing well at the moment and I think these two sides should be closer than they are in the betting. I certainly think my doubts about Kings Lynn's small squad keeping up their level of performances is certainly factored into the odds to make it worth a bet.

Wealdstone v Woking

Asia look like they want to be with Woking, but I want to be with the home side. Woking's away form is awful and in their last 10 away games the only times they have won is at Barnet and Dover. The only other point they have picked up was at Bromley who were struggling to win at home at the time. With relegation off the table they have a much bigger game on Saturday against Hereford in the FA Trophy and I can see players rested for this lesser game which basically has nothing riding on it. Wealdstone were poor on Saturday in a 4-0 defeat at Weymouth, but then they are poor on their travels anyway. They are much better at home and I can see them taking advantage of a Woking side who will have one eye on Saturday.

Kings Lynn 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365

Wealdstone 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365

[allthethings]

A couple of years ago I started paying attention to midweek matches in all the lower leagues that had been postponed from weekends due to weather. My interest had to do with how schedules could become clotted with games as the season went on, what travel might mean with many smaller sides, and so on, and as usual I was focused on clear underdogs to favorites of under 2.00.

Anyway, the numbers are different in all of the leagues, but generally there are more draws in these matches than there are in regularly scheduled weekend matches. I find this interesting...far from being at a greater disadvantage, it tends to advantage the lesser sides. Or to put it another way, the better sides are presumed by the betting public to benefit on short weeks, probably just because they're better sides, and the results don't bear this out.

I subsequently split the data into three: Early season (pre-Christmas, when there are lots of midweek matches in the schedule), Jan-Feb (the height of winter, when you're making up matches in the same dodgy weather that forced the original postponement) and season's end (March-May; holy shit we have to get these played before the season's done).

In the National, the early-season makeups are the best for draws, the mid-season matches are kind of inconclusive, and the late season sees more draws. There's one subset that's particularly interesting: Late season matches with an away dog in the range of 6.00 to 7.99. Not quite the biggest away dogs (those greater than 8.00 have a record of 3-4-21 for the whole season), but pretty sizable dogs, the late-season away dogs of 6.00-7.99 have a record of 1-7-11, or 37% draws. Eastleigh are a play today.

Kings Lynn and Solihull Moors, as dogs of under 4.00, are under my recommended line (29% draws in late season and 28% draws overall, historically), but Wealdstone are for sure a live dog as Darren said based on these historical trends: home dogs of under 4.00 are 5-8-8 from March through May, 24% win and 38% draw.

[allthethings]

Curious whether anyone is watching Wealdstone-Woking (I can't get it where I am). It doesn't seem like Woking had a dominant first half statistically anyway, so I'm wondering why just prior to the half Wealdstone were +425 to win, Woking -130.

[Darran]

1 hour ago, allthethings said:

Curious whether anyone is watching Wealdstone-Woking (I can't get it where I am). It doesn't seem like Woking had a dominant first half statistically anyway, so I'm wondering why just prior to the half Wealdstone were +425 to win, Woking -130.

I watched it and the prices were very wrong at half time. It seems that the big Asian punters backed woking just before kick off. I’m not sure what price they were but I’m guessing very short if they were only evens at half time. Wealdstone edged the game for me but a poor keeper decision cost them the 3 points but a draw was probably the fairest result. Those big punters got very lucky.