yossa6133

1st and 3rd ....nice doing business 

Ravished ran pretty well at Hexham and I thought he had the favourite beat at one stage, but turning for home the winner put the race to bed, although he did idle on the run-in. The winner probably wants softer ground and his jumping didn't impress again which is always going to be a concern, but I thought it was a solid enough performance as the 2nd ran his race. I'd imagine they might be considering Stratford for the winner and if they over water the ground again that will certainly help him although his jumping wont. Gran Paradiso ran well enough in 3rd but I'm not surprised he wasn't good enough to win. He should find a Hunter Chase though I would imagine. God knows who was backing Cave Hunter and he pulled up whilst the rest were outclassed.
The first thing to say about Exeter's Hunter Chase is that it is a disgrace that the rules allow a horse like Theatre Territory to run in a Novices' Hunter Chase. She was last seen on Grand National day running well enough in the Grade 3 Handicap Chase finishing 8th. She may not have won over fences so far, but it says it all that they have decided to nick a win in a Hunter Chase. I can't blame connections for running her it is the rules that need changing in my view. You don't need me to tell you that she should win this and she ought to win it very easily.
Kit Barry and Draft Pick should struggle. I initially was going to say the same about Master Sunrise, but he might well be capable of finishing 2nd. It was no surprise he was massively outpaced by Risk A Fine over 2m4f at Warwick last time, but he did plug on in his first run since September. He is hard work and certainly needs this trip. The other big thing is the jockey change as James King takes over and the 2nd in the John Corbet Cup reads well in the context of this contest. 
I'm All Set did well to win at Taunton a couple of weeks ago, but that was a pretty weak contest although he is at least in good form. I prefer the chances of Drumlynn though. I still can't believe he didn't win at Leicester when being done on the line by Asangy and it is interesting that Luke has given him a wind op which should help him see out this trip better. I think he has a fair bit of ability and although I'm not sure he can beat the favourite he looks the most likely to chase her home.
Barring accidents it will be a massive shock if Theatre Territory doesn't win. Drumlynn can chase him although I am also having a saver on Master Sunrise to finish 2nd as I think he is overpriced.
Theatre Territory to beat Drumlynn 1.5pts f/c
Theatre Territory to beat Master Sunrise 0.5pts f/c
Onto the first of 3 Point To Point bumpers of the season. This is a race for horses that have run in British points this season although some have since gone to pro trainers and one of those is the favourite Whenhellbrokeloose. I have watched the video of his win at Bangor and he looked very green and I wasn't keen on his head carriage at all. Now he is sure to improve with experience and the ground was pretty testing that day so the better ground might help to, but out of the 3 bumpers on the card he recorded the slowest time. He was then unsold at the sales and Alan King must have purchased him privately and he is running in his colours here. In my view the horse is as short as he is because of the trainer and whilst I am not going to say he can't win he looks awfully short based on what he has done on the track so far.
I don't really fancy the 2nd in the betting either Woodbrook Boy. Obviously it is interesting Shark Hanlon is bringing him over, but he is actually 0-11 with bumper runners in Britain in the last 5 seasons. He came over to run at the International Meeting at Barbury in December and won a maiden over 2m4f and then won back in Ireland the following month. In that race though he beat an exposed 11yo. He was then 3rd last time out. His form looks nothing special and he is the most exposed of these. If he gets smashed in the betting then that would be interesting, but on form he does little for me.
Mount Nelly was 3rd on her debut in a bumper at Barbury in February when losing out in a 3 way photo. The winner won a maiden point since and was then sold for £50k, whilst she was sold herself for £12.5k. The front 3 that day pulled a fair way clear of the rest and it looks decent enough form. Think the market will tell us the story though as the yard's horses are usually well backed if they are fancied. A bold show wouldn't surprise though.
Full Of Roque ran on the same Bangor card that the favourite ran on and he finished a 5L 2nd in a race that was 3 seconds quicker than Whenhellbrokeloose. That suggests their isn't that much between them and although I am not saying he will finish in front of him it is hard to see why the prices should be so different.
I don't really fancy Getabuck. He was well beaten in a point bumper on debut a year ago and then pulled up over 2m5f on his seasonal return, before finishing 2nd at Didmarton and then winning at Kingston Blount. They were both over 3m though so it has to be a concern that he is dropping back in trip.
Merchant House looks a bit quirky. He didn't handle a bend at Cotley and the swerved and unseated his rider approaching a fence. He was 2nd the time before that beaten 15L behind an impressive winner although he's been beaten since. On his debut he did win a bumper at Barbury, but the horse he beat has done nothing for the form since.
Spectacular Rival, Reflex Action and Western Whiskey all look to have a fair bit to find.
That leaves me with Grumpy Charley and The Galloping Bear who were 1st and 2nd in a bumper at Milborne St Andrew 3 weeks ago. The winning time was a good deal quicker than the other 2 bumpers on the card. I have watched the video and I was impressed with what I saw with Grumpy Charley. He looks to have plenty of speed and looked a bit green in the closing stages so there should be more to come. His very good jockey is able to take 7lbs off here so he is 7lbs better off with The Galloping Bear. The pair of them pulled 16L and whilst The Galloping Bear could well hit the frame, it is hard to see him reversing form with the winner.
For me Grumpy Charley has the strongest form going into this contest and there looked to be plenty more to come from him as well. We know he will handle the ground as it was good on his debut and for me he should be the favourite.
Grumpy Charley 2pts @ 11/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Just the 3 for Wincanton's Hunter Chase and I am surprised that the early money has been for Woodfleet. Yes he did win over course and distance last May, but Unioniste didn't run his race and it meant he ended up with a very simple task. This season he pulled up on his return and I then saw him finish a distant 2nd at Charing. His last start at Milborne St Andrew saw him beat a head by Jack Snipe who was carrying 4lbs more. That doesn't tell the whole story though having watched a video of the contest. The winner would have been a big price in running as he was a fair way back in 3rd jumping the last with Woodfleet looking set to win, he then pulled himself up and it allowed Jack Snipe to go by him. It has to be a big worry for anyone wanting to back him that he has done that. Regardless Southfield Vic has the best form in the race anyway based on his 2nd at Newbury to Master Baker which was a massive step up on his Hunter Chase debut at Fontwell. A repeat of that effort should be more than good enough to beat his two rivals here. Keltus wouldn't be totally out of this based on his 3rd in the Royal Artillery, but he wasn't as good in the Grand Military on his next start which is a bit off putting. 
The Stratford contest looks a cracker with Arthur's Secret taking on Master Baker and Risk A Fine. All 3 have won 2 Hunter Chases this season and there have been some big winning margins as well. Regular readers of my previews this season will know I hold Arthur's Secret in the highest regard and that I am a big fan of Risk A Fine as well. They are both front runners so there is one theory that they could cut each others throats and set things up for Master Baker, but I don't think that will happen. First of all it wouldn't surprise me if James King on Risk A Fine just let Arthur's Secret get on with it, but even if he did try and force the issue I think Arthur's Secret would eventually burn him off. Arthur's Secret can set a ridiculously high tempo and crucially can keep going at that high tempo. As much as Risk A Fine has impressed me this season I just don't think he is up to being able to get Arthur's Secret off the bridle especially based on his Wincanton run behind Monsieur Gibraltar. I know Master Baker won over 2m at Taunton earlier in the season, but that was a really bad race and I think he will find himself outpaced over this trip round here especially given the speed Arthur's Secret is going to go. The jockey change is a plus though.
I am really looking forward to this race, but in my view Arthur's Secret would have been capable of going very close at Aintree last week and he is one of the best pointers/hunter chasers in the country at the moment which is backed up by his lofty rating in this sphere. As much as the other two are good horses I just don't see how they can get him beat if he is at his best again. I think a double on both races is the way to go and at the moment it pays 2.6/1 with Bet365.
Southfield Vic/Arthur's Secret 2.5pts double @ 2.6/1 with Bet365 

my combo for tonight

Where to start with the Kelso contest? We usually see at least one drama filled contest a season and this was certainly one of those. Beyond Gold was running a hell of a race when he came down at 3 out and it was a huge step up from his debut victory. He took out Hardrock Davis and as much as both seemed to be going well still I would like to think Hardrock Davis would have too much at the finish, but you couldn't be certain. Sir Lonica was a beaten horse at the time and it was a disappointing effort although it looked like he was about to be gifted the race until he was brought to a stand still allowing the winner and 2nd to catch him up. Coming to the 2nd last they were almost all in a line, but Sir Lonica unseated and although he wasn't going very quickly Longtymegone ended up winning by over 100L although that was because Costly Dream only just got himself over the last. It was a pretty brutal finish as the jockey on the winner decided to use his whip and the jockey on the 2nd should have pulled him up before the last and he got very lucky that the horse managed to scramble over the fence. They both should have been banned but only the winning jockey was. The form is obviously meaningless although the the two who came to grief at the 3rd last will fancy their chances of finding a Hunter Chase at some stage.
Only 4 runners at Southwell but an interesting battle between Monsieur Gibraltar and Stellar Notion. They both made their seasonal debuts on the same card at Larkhill and the former was just under 2 seconds quicker than the latter although he carried 13lbs more. Obviously Monsieur Gibraltar has won 3 times since including at Wincanton last time when he beat Risk A Fine under David Maxwell for the first time. Risk A Fine has boosted the form since and I can see this race being similar to that one because at Wincanton Risk A Fine front ran and Monsieur Gibraltar had too much speed for him and here Stellar Notion is likely to make the running and I think he will have too much speed for him. Granted Delegate will probably want to help with making the pace as well and as much as he ran a solid race at Ludlow last week that form for me is below what the other two have achieved this season although he will be more suited to this trip than Stellar Notion.
I can see Monsieur Gibraltar stalking the pace and then having too much speed for them down the home straight to claim another victory.
Monsieur Gibraltar 3pts @ 10/11 with William Hill, Betfair and Betfred
2 hours later we move onto Exeter and I think it looks a two horse race between Dicky Bob and Herbert Park. Dicky Bob was 2nd to Monsieur Gibraltar on his seasonal return at Larkhill which was a solid return. He was then ridden by the same novice rider the next twice when winning one before unseating at the 5th. Bryan Carver is making a name for himself this season and he took over the riding last time out when he bolted up by 25L beating Heaney who re-opposes here. The time that day was really quick and I can see him being hard to catch out in front. He won a Hunter Chase here 3 years ago beating last week's Taunton winner I'm All Set so we know he handles the track and he won't mind what the weather does.
Herbert Park won the same race Dicky Bob did last year when he just held off Master Baker. That was obviously a good effort although he disappointed at Fontwell the next time where I suspect the ground was quick enough as he was never really travelling that night. This season he has run once when he was 2nd to Virak which was obviously a good effort to start the season off with. He will be played late and will likely be the favourites final challenger.
I can't really have Glen Roe who was a surprise winner of a Hexham maiden hurdle in October having mainly struggled in Irish points. The 2nd home finally won a handicap off 110 and the 3rd has done nothing for the form so based on that I would be surprised if he was good enough to win this. Sam Red was better at Newbury when 4th than on his Hunter Chase debut when he pulled up, but on a line through Master Baker he can't beat Herbert Park. He is the one most likely to take advantage should the front two in the betting disappoint for whatever reason.
I think Dicky Bob will be hard to catch out in front and he is the main bet. At the prices though we can have a saver on Herbert Park as unless we see a repeat of Kelso I do think one of those two will win.
Dicky Bob 2.5pts @ 13/8 with Betfair and Paddy Power
Herbert Park 1pt @ 100/30 with William Hill and BetVictor

I prefer to look at old systems as back then it was a lot harder to back fit due to not as much info in the public domain so any system being used would have had a lot of time and effort put into proofing it.
My own system I use for the flat was originally posted in the Sporting Chronicle back in 1948 by a maths teacher / actuary. My grandad used it ,my old fella swore by it till the 80's when the chronicle shut down, he called them his beer/pocket money bets, I have a version of the original system in a Sporting Chronicle handbook from 1950 and Ive brought it up to date and it still works today, so happy days!
I find the problem today is people want something for nothing and find it easier to make money off the back of racing (flogging systems,paid tipping services, talking shite on RUK/ATR picking winners after the event ,etc etc) rather than from horseracing (taking on the books)

Nice one, back in the 80's i used to follow an EW system based on the Daily Mirror which my dear old dad used to swear by.
He would often back horses that were topped by all 3 tipsters in the paper, Newsboy, Bouverie (sp?) and Spotform. This uses to throw up three or four a day but he noticed that on the odd occasion the (EW) horse was tipped up by both NB and BV. This was pretty successful when i followed it for a short time until i moved away and stopped getting the Mirror.
Anyway I digress, the Good old days eh!

One of the big Hunter Chases up in the north takes place on Monday with Buccleuch Cup at Kelso. For me it looks a two horse race. Beyond Gold will start a double figure price and is stupidly short at the moment. It won a dreadful maiden just over a month ago and would be a surprise winner. Longtymegone has won twice in 17 Irish points and looks very ordinary. Costly Dream should be 3rd in and hasn't done too badly this season and won a Restricted last time when Steel's Cotton was pulled up. That one and Whiteabbey have no chance.
Hardrock Davis has won a Restricted and an Intermediate this season and the in running comments in the form book ended with the word impressive for his last win last month. His 2nd the time before was behind Buck Dancing who looks a very exciting horse as he won a really strong Intermediate last week so to get within 8L of him wasn't a bad effort at all. Costly Dream was a further 12L behind in 3rd. He looks the only danger to the favourite.
Sir Lonica ran 3 times in Irish points in 2016 without winning and then came over here and ran and won twice last season. They were hugely impressive victories as well. He won his maiden at Sheriff Hutton by 25L and then the following month he won his Restricted by 20L at Alnwick. That Alnwick performance was particularly impressive as he recorded the fastest time on the card and clocked the fastest final circuit. He looks a hugely promising horse and the trip shouldn't be a concern. The only concern you could have is the fact he hasn't run for over a year, but his trainer is very good and as we saw with Seefood at Leicester he can get one ready. 
I am very keen on Sir Lonica here and rate him a strong bet. I am however going to also cover the bet slightly by backing Hardrock Davis as he is the only other horse who can possibly win for me. I also think Sir Lonica will go off odds on so he should drift so if he does win it might well end up covering the whole bet on Sir Lonica. If one of those two don't win I have got the race badly wrong!
Sir Lonica 4pts @ 5/4 with William Hill, Betfair and Paddy Power
Hardrock Davis 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365 and most others  

440 ain't 
Cracking find  299
Movie legend    297 
Wide open race so cant be hugely confident but these 2 have high ratings and are priced 16 and 25 so look fantastic value and worth an ew bet 
2x5pt ew and 16 andx25 willh and sky 

There is also a Hunter Chase at Taunton on Thursday which is certainly a fair bit below the quality of the Aintree contest but hopefully I can find the winner.
Summons To Court looks a bit short based on what he did at Exeter especially given it wasn't that long between his Irish runs to his stable debut. Kit Barry finished in front of him that day and Kit Barry was over 20L behind the favourite earlier in the season so I am happy to rule those two out. Im All Set was 4th in this 2 years ago and didn't jump well which he has never really done in Hunter Chases so far. He was also behind Big Georgie in the point Caid Du Berlias won pre Cheltenham. He has won a 3 runner race since but I am happy to oppose. Big Georgie was 2nd in that race and has won over 3m6f since then. I considered him, but he has been a frustrating horse under rules and I wonder if the trip might be sharp enough round here. Rain will certainly help his cause though.
For me the two to focus on are Coco Live and Its All Or Nothing. Coco Live has been a different horse this season having won 4 on the bounce after unseating at the 1st on his seasonal return. The form is OK in the context of this and obviously you have to respect any horse that goes on a run like this. The win last time was the best of them and he is clearly progressing. He has run OK on soft ground in the past, but I think rain would be a concern and his jumping hasn't always been good in points so the bigger fences is also a worry.
He is the danger, but at the prices I am happy to side with Its All Or Nothing. The piece of form I really like is when ran at Exeter last year when he was still a length up when falling at 2 out in a race where Herbert Park and Master Baker were 1st and 2nd. That is strong form. This season he has run twice winning the first of them and then unseating when close up in 3rd at 3 out in a race won by Virak and Herbert Park was 2nd. That is strong form as well and although the form guide has them on the same rating for me Its All Or Nothing has the edge. The other point in his favour is the forecast rain as he clearly enjoys soft ground and he shouldn't be a 4/1 shot.
Its All Or Nothing 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfred and pretty much everyone else

Lucky 15
145 A: Le Bague Au Roi 7/4
325 A: Buveur D'Air 10/11
240 T: Birds Of Prey 9/4
600 C: Yimkin 11/8
EW Double
405 A: Road To Rome 4/1
515 A: The Glancing Queen 11/2

 

First thing to say is that I am writing this on about 3 hours sleep and jet lagged so if there is any errors do let me know and I will correct them to make sure it all makes sense!
Asockastar - I said in my Cheltenham preview that I thought he would run with credit and that is exactly what he did to finish 8th. Patrick Mullins has been booked for the ride and I could see him finishing in the top 10 again without troubling the places.
Balnaslow - Great 'winner' of this race last year after finishing 2nd the year before. It seems like he will lose the race though from what we have been told which is a shame for connections. I'm sure he will have his fans given how he has run the last two years, but he doesn't look in good form this and he ran no sort of race at Cheltenham. With no Derek O'Connor on top either I am more than happy to oppose.
Bear's Affair - The horse who is set to become the 2018 winner once the BHA finally announce he has got the race. He won his seasonal return back in November, but then pulled up at Cottenham in December and was 2nd to his stablemate Optimised at Bangor last time out. He was beaten a neck that day and the winner has won 2 since including a Hunter Chase so the form isn't that bad. The problem is he is 13 now as much as I am sure he will run well and get round I just wonder if a top 4 placing might be a bit above him this year.
Burning Ambition - Was the big talking horse all last winter ahead of Cheltenham and he travelled really well into the race which had me worried given I didn't fancy him. However he didn't stay up the hill and ended up only 8th. There was talk that he wouldn't be hunter chasing this season, but he returned with connections saying Aintree rather than Cheltenham was the target which made sense given he didn't stay at Cheltenham. He made a winning return in January, but then disappointed when beaten by Sidetracked the following month.Those two re-opposed at Down Royal the day after Cheltenham when Burning Ambition held on by a diminishing margin from Sidetracked. The jockey said he was just easing him down and he had plenty left, but I must admit that wasn't how I saw it and I was slightly worried, having put him up as a bet, that he wasn't actually going to win. I thought he didn't have much left and that added to the fact he got beaten on his previous start is a worry for me. If this was last season I could understand why he heads the market, but this time around, especially given the UK horses seem to have the upper-hand based on Cheltenham in this sphere I don't get the price. A big plus though is that he has Derek on top.
Champagne West - Miles behind Seefood at Leicester and impossible to see how he can reverse that form despite his back class which includes winning the 2017 Thyestes.
Coastal Tiep - Pulled up at Cheltenham and hard to see much of an improvement here.
Crazy Jack - Was well handicapped when winning the handicap Hunter Chase at Stratford last season, but that is is only Hunter Chase win and hasn't shown much in 3 runs this season.
Dineur - Great winner of this race two years ago, but wasn't see again until last month and he was miles behind Road To Rome. Unseated rider early on at Fakenham on Gold Cup day and it is hard to know what sort of ability he still has at the age of 13, but hard to want to back him to get back his crown.
Galley Exhibition - Wasn't a bad run at Kingston Blount last time when 2nd but was last of 12 in this last year and hard to see him improving on that.
Greensalt - A surprise 3rd in this last year and then unseated at Hexham when badly hampered 2 from home by the leader who fell. Just seen the once so far this season when he was a 3L 2nd to Path To Freedom at Duncombe Park. That was a fair run and this clearly has been the target, but hard to see him equalling last year's efforts let alone go 2 places better.
Just Cause - Beaten at odds on by Asockastar at Leicester and I don't think he will reverse that form let alone trouble the judge here. Pulled up at Cheltenham.
Kruzhlinin - 7 out of 7 in Irish points this season, but not sure that means he has achieved a great deal and was 3rd at Down Royal in his only Hunter Chase behind Stand Up And Fight. That leaves him with work to do here. I also have a big concern about the trip as it looks on the short side and in his previous runs round here he has never really convinced either. Not for me.
Mr Mercurial - Been a really good pointer/hunter chaser over the years and ran well enough when 8th in his only run in this back in 2017. Had a superb season last time around and in that form I would be tempted to back him for this. The problem is he left Shelia Crow last season and has gone to Will Ramsey who trains him and rides him as well. He isn't a great jockey and I don't think he has given him great rides either start this season. If you give him a chance to dog it then he will and he was in front for way too long at Kelso when his head went straight up in the air after the last allowing Shantou Flyer to go past him. Granted that form is looking pretty decent now and Sir Jack Yeats was in behind them so it was still a good run. He was then 3rd in the Grand Military Gold Cup when he didn't stay although his jockey did get carried away which didn't help. This test will suit more but who knows what sort of ride he is going to get.
Mr Mix - Was a well beaten 2nd behind Hazel Hill at Warwick and although the winner is top notch I still think the form is suspect in behind. His pointing form is nowhere near good enough to get competitive in this. He was seen to have blood coming from his nose after winning at Charing which would explain why he was an unimpressive winner, but that also brings its own concerns as to if he will do it again. I think he is really short in the betting for what he has done this season.
Never Complain - Well beaten in 2 previous attempts and no reason why he should do any better here.
Numbercruncher - Too far for him and he will be outclassed anyway.
Pass The Hat - Got this horse very wrong in both his Hunter Chase wins as I didn't fancy him at either Southwell or Carlisle. It could be argued Road To Riches needed it at Carlisle, but I thought he ran out a decent winner and it is hard to see why he should be such a big price compared to that horse for this. I can see him running well, but he ought not to be good enough to win this.
Road To Riches - Had a very easy task to win last time after that 2nd to Pass The Hat back at Carlisle. Was 6th in last year's National and was 3rd to Coneygree in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2015, but as mentioned above I wouldn't be certain he can overturn that form with Pass The Hat let alone win this and he isn't for me.
Road To Rome - I've been saying for ages now that this is the race for him. He ran a stormer at Chetlenham finishing 4th after just not staying after setting a blistering gallop as he usually does. His jockey has a superb record round here and has won this race 3 times. The two minor concerns are his jumping, although he has never looked like falling this season, and a bigger worry would be that he has 8 races already since the season started in November. After a tough race at Cheltenham as well it might well catch up with him, but it hasn't so far and I think that is the only thing that is going to stop him from winning this.
Seefood - Wasn't exactly the strongest renewal of the Leicestershire Hunter Chase that he won on his only start so far for new connections, but he was an impressive winner and he was well backed ahead of the race as well so connections were clearly expecting a big run. His last good run under rules was in the Grand Sefton in December 2016 when he was a good 2nd so he ha crucial course form as well. His jockey isn't the most experienced in the field, but she gave him a good ride at Leicester and I think he has a fair shout of hitting the frame.
Shantou Magic - No chance
Shimla Dawn - Has to front run as he did when winning well at Musselburgh but no way will he be pacey enough to keep up with Road To Rome here.
Sir Jack Yeats - I think he has a huge chance. Last season was all about qualifying him for Cheltenham which ended up being a bit rushed given he needed 3 runs to get qualification. He then run well enough at Cheltenham but didn't really see out the trip. Aintree was very much an after thought and it told late on when he ended up finishing 9th although I do want to see him handle the Canal Turn better than he did that day. This season he looked like he might win at Kelso before the lack of a run told late on and his trainer admitted after he won at Fakenham that he had left him more under-cooked than he thought he had ahead of the Kelso run. He had little to beat at Fakenham, but he did it with ease and this has been his main target instead of an after thought this time around
Starkie - Not seen since surprisingly beating one of the best pointers in recent years Broken Eagle at Hackwood last season and on that form would be of serious interest in a normal Hunter Chase, but hard to see him being good enough for this.
Top Wood - A superb training performance to get him to finish 3rd at Cheltenham on his seasonal debut after finishing 2nd in the race last year. Has never been here before, but no reason why he shouldn't handle it. The slight worry would be the trip as he probably needs slightly further, but this is likely to be a good test and given he should sit near or on the pace that should suit as well. Concern would be if he bounced after Cheltenham, but on the other side of the coin if he came on for the run then he is going to be right there at the finish.
Ucello Conti - As I said in my review of the Cheltenham Foxhunter I thought Jamie Codd gave him a terrible ride as he sat way too far off the pace and they were never going to get involved from that far back given the quality of horse up front. Was 6th in the 2016 Grand National, but unseated in the last 2 years although was a close 4th in the Becher Chase in 2016. I didn't fancy him for Cheltenham though as I thought his form this season wasn't great and this trip is surely going to be on the sharp side for him. I can see him being tapped for toe from an early stage and struggle to get into the race from there.
Wonderful Charm - Slightly surprised he is even running given Sam is on Road To Rome. Was always well behind in this last year and likely to be the same again especially with the cut in the ground.
Summary - As at Cheltenham I am more than happy to oppose the Irish here and am going to stick with the home team. As long as Road To Rome isn't feeling a long season then he is the one they all have to beat and he is the main selection. Sir Jack Yeats has been specifically aimed at this race this year and until running wide at the Canal Turn was running a good race. I think he has a huge chance and is over-priced. Top Wood is the 3rd choice as hard to see him out of contention as long as he doesn't bounce. A small e/w play on Seefood as well who is proven round here and is another to have clearly targeted this race.
Road To Rome 2pts @ 4/1 with Bet365 and most others
Sir Jack Yeats 1pt e/w @ 22/1 with Bet365 (4 places is shorter with 5 places on offer)
Top Wood 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365 (4 places) and Boylesports (5 places)
Seefood 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 with Betway (4 places) 

Japan   and  Mahmoon   2 with immense potential 

Boom legend 
Thank you the kids will all get new shoes this easter

Detachment    2 25 don     1/4 pt win  18/1    B365        unplaced
Sands Chorus  2 25 don    1/4 pt win   40/1   B354         unplaced  
Humbert  3 35 don    1/4 pt win  12/1 B365                    unplaced
Aquarium  3 35 don 1/4 pt ew 36/1 ew  betfair              unplaced
Lady Makfi  7 30 south  1/4 pt ew 55/1 betfair               3rd     
 
 
 
 
 
P/L   Account     =  +   132.75  pts     from may  2018

Don't think I have ever done a flat system so I am going to give this a go.This will be based on something I came across a while back on the success of trainers at certain tracks in certain races. I will be hoping to have a strike rate of over 35% with the best results coming in apprentice races and 4yo + handicaps. Going to keep it to level stakes and may the gods be with me.
Nothing today, possibility of 1 tomorrow. 

There are definitely some games I'm liking the look of that are below evens and can build some small stakes accas with.
Margate at 1.85
Brackley at 1.85
Coalville at 1.7
Swindon Supermarine at 1.75
Chesterfield at 1.83
Boston at 1.83
All with Bill Hill. I like betting on the favourite when the weather is favourable and up and down the country it seems like a decent day

Aston Villa vs Blackburn
For the second preview of the weekend's Championship games we move 3 miles down the road to Villa Park where Aston Villa will attempt to continue their charge up the league table in this home game against Blackburn that kicks off at 3pm on Saturday afternoon.
Aston Villa have now won four league games in a row. Dean Smith's side have shot up into the play-off positions thanks to this run of results. The manager is set to name an unchanged XI from the one that tore Middlesbrough apart before the international break. Villa have won their last three home games against Blackburn as well. It seems Jack Grealish's fitness is key to Villa's progress. Since Smith took charge, Villa have won 69% of their games with Grealish involved compared to just 15% with him missing.
Blackburn appear to have done enough to stay up this season. Tony Mowbray's side are 16th in the table and 11 points clear of the relegation zone. Unfortunately, their form has tailed off towards the back end of this season. It's now just 1 win, 1 draw, and 7 losses from their last 9 league games. Just 4 wins in their 10 away league games this season suggests it's a tall order here.
Every season, one team paces their push to the play-offs exactly right. Villa are doing exactly that. Blackburn have scored at least once in their last 9 league games against Villa so it might be worth backing both teams to score. I can just see Villa continuing their storming run with a 2-3 goal win here.
Aston Villa -1 @ 2.62 with SpreadEx
BTTS @ 1.67 with William Hill

West Brom vs Birmingham
The Championship is back tonight with this Midlands derby between West Brom and Birmingham in an 8pm kick-off tonight at the Hawthorns. The Baggies have picked up since the sacking of Darren Moore but their opponents here have been handed a 9-point deduction.
West Brom are in 4th place in the table and just 7 points off the automatic promotion pace with 8 league games to go. Is it too late? Well, caretaker manager James Shan is giving it a good go by winning the two games he's had in charge against Swansea and Brentford without conceding a goal.
Birmingham were in a safe position where it looked like they would be preparing for next season but this points deduction now leaves them just 5 points above the relegation zone in 18th place. If results go against them this weekend then that gap could be reduced to just 2 points. I'd say that's unlikely but the threat of that happening sums up how bad this deduction has hit them.
I'm going to have to back the home win here. I think nerves are now going to set in for Birmingham. The situation still isn't desperate so I think they'll give a good account of themselves. They've been difficult to beat on the road with just 7 defeats from their 19 away games. I think Shan has got West Brom set up well. It might be a tight win but it should still be a victory to keep their promotion hopes alive.
West Brom to Win @ 1.92 with BetVictor
Draw HT/ West Brom FT @ 5.20 with MarathonBet
@waynecoyne, @sajtion, @arvee, @canaries91, @Mindfulness, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @CloughandTaylor, @Tiffy, @Gidds, @chris50, @PokerWolf1, @teddybear3011, @skyblues88, @allyhibs, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @willie82, @Neubs, @Papa Lazarou, @kulikTS, @Valkovets, @Pipoca, @padman, @Marek76, @silver fox, @neilovan, @HastGill1, @jazzman02, @andypaps28, @Kenton Schweppes, @rangers234, @newjack, @Kane91, @yossa6133, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Xcout, @branskie, @Wanderer89, @four-leaf, @trevor8, @OppoArchitizerLady, and @the bastardian, what bets are you guys placing this week?

Caution go away,caution go away i know its after the international break but i do not mind,i feel its the weekend for the top teams in the league.West Brom,Villa,Leeds and Sheffield United has odds of about 7.5.Could i be wrong ???Or should i play some teams with double chances.I just do not see any of those teams losing this weekend.

Pearl Spectre   3 25 southwell    1/4  pt   win 25/1   B365      unplaced
Sir Lancelott  6 30  kempton   1/4  pt win   14/1  P/P       unplaced
 
 
P/L  Account   =  + 133.25  pts    from   may   2018

Rated Lincoln 
Kynren   252 
Humbert  249 
These two are surprisingly well clear of next horse ....haven't seen that in such a big race so will be interesting to see how they run now ....too early to back as no nrnb ...but currently 9 and 12 /1 ....interesting 

Start of the Flat season is upon us!!
Lincoln & Rosebery Handicaps this weekend
335 Doncaster
1m (Str) Unibet Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+)
Previous Winners

Trends
10/10 Aged 4-6
10/10 Not been out for 150+ days
8/10 Carried 9st or more
8/10 rated 97 or more
6/10 Drawn double figures
14/22 Placed last time out (8 won)
15/22 Won at the trip

Online for £4
Brings back memories, ive never heard of Juniorater either??
 

Here's an interesting one. If Bristol De Mai doesn't run, then all the weights go up by 4lbs I believe. If that is the case then Tiger Roll would not qualify on my trends calculations. To score 90+ they can only fail one trend & TR would suddenly fail a 2nd one.

The stats I use are based around this information; since changes were made to the course in 2013
& are based on the winning horses & all placed horses that were within 10 lengths of the winner.

Aged between 8 and 11 years old: 17/17
Weight Carried between 10.03 and 11.03: 16/17
Won a chase over at least 3 miles and 1/2 furlong: 16/17
Previously won no more than 5 times over fences: 16/17
Previously won a chase worth £/€ 31 k, or placed in a chase worth at least £/€ 51 k: 16/17
Placed in a chase over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs: 15/17
Best RPR during past 12 months within last 3 starts over fences: 15/17
Previously recorded no more than 1 fall/unseated rider non completion over fences: 14/17
Best RPR during last 12 months of at least 5 lbs higher than current Official Rating: 14/17
Last ran between 22 and 49 days prior to this race: 13/17

Although my scoring calculations are based on 2 years ago when it added up to 99, I can't bring myself to calculate a new points threshold when it still worked out last year. A simpler way would be to say that since 2013, 5 of the 6 winners (the last 5) & 8 of the 11 placed horses (those that finished within 10 lengths of winner) have either met, or failed just one of the above trends.
The exclusions are as follows:
Winner: AURORAS ENCORE (2013)
Placed: SAINT ARE (2015 & 2017) and PLEASANT COMPANY (2018)

Hope this helps understand where the figures have come from. They are still subject to change as I imagine around a quarter of the runners could yet still change.