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Xtc12

Fancy Flat Flutters

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Don't think I have ever done a flat system so I am going to give this a go.This will be based on something I came across a while back on the success of trainers at certain tracks in certain races. I will be hoping to have a strike rate of over 35% with the best results coming in apprentice races and 4yo + handicaps. Going to keep it to level stakes and may the gods be with me.

Nothing today, possibility of 1 tomorrow. :hope

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Good luck xtc

I think I might jump straight into the Turf flat racing now though from memory I think we get a couple of weeks after Donny when there isn't much action ……. it's a false start to the new season !

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All the best to you Trotter ... not really a lover of the flat but this may keep me interested. 

Shareef Star 16.20 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ 7\2 Bet365 (bog)

Better with each start in maidens last summer. Top yard perseveres and highly likely there's more to come.

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Shareef Star 16.20 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ 7\2 Bet365 (bog)

7th - held up in mid-division on inside, not clear run from over 2f out until switched right inside final furlong, unlucky

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Only took another week to get a bet in this:

Yellow label 15.20 Windsor 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 (bog)

Little promise and well beaten in Wolverhampton (9.5f) event on recent debut. 

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Tigerskin 13.30 Nottingham 1 Pt Win @ 33\1 (bog)

Modest form in 2 outings last year and appeals as more one for handicaps further down the line.

Non Runner 

Nothing tomorrow.

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Dazzling Des 14.30 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 5\1 Bet365 (bog)

Foaled February 5. €33,000 yearling, Brazen Beau colt. Dam, 2-y-o 5f winner, half-sister to useful 1m-10.3f winner Desert Kiss.

Logi 15.05 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 Bet365 (bog)

Three wins from 13 runs last year. Eleventh of 12 in handicap (12/1) at Newcastle (7.1f) 22 days ago. Is now operating 4 lb below last winning mark so not one to write off back on turf. 

Milton Road 17.55 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 11\1 PP (bog)

Fourteen runs since last win in 2017. 10/1, step back in right direction when third of 13 in handicap at Wolverhampton (6.1f) 39 days ago, helped by being held up in strongly-run race. 

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On 4/12/2019 at 11:46 PM, Xtc12 said:

Dazzling Des 14.30 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 5\1 Bet365 (bog)

5th - close up, headway 2f out, soon every chance, no extra inside final furlong

 

On 4/12/2019 at 11:46 PM, Xtc12 said:

Logi 15.05 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 Bet365 (bog)

6th - towards rear, pushed along 2f out, stayed on final furlong, nearest finish

On 4/12/2019 at 11:46 PM, Xtc12 said:

Milton Road 17.55 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 11\1 PP (bog)

5th -  tracked leaders, effort well over 1f out, soon one pace

Well in these early days of Flat Racing I am not even getting a sniff of a place !

Spirit of Nicobar 16.00 Windsor 1 Pt Win @ 50\1 Bet365 (bog)

Dunaden filly. Half-sister to 13.3f winner Scarlet Minstrel. Dam unraced. Wouldn't rule out a big run on debut.

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14 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Spirit of Nicobar 16.00 Windsor 1 Pt Win @ 50\1 Bet365 (bog)

13th - always towards rear

Marhaban 17.20 Newmarket 1 Pt Win @ 13\8 Bet365 (bog)

Barely seen another rival as he's led from pillar to post in a couple of AW events at up to this trip earlier this year. Gelded ahead of this turf/handicap debut and likely to do better still. 

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I seem to recall reading somewhere that, contrary to popular belief, horses do not perform better on their 1st run after being gelded. Does anybody have any data to prove / disprove this?

I don't think I'd be very co-operative if someone had done this to me !

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Mecca's Hot Steps 13.40 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 17\2 Betfair

Foaled January 28. 18,000 gns yearling. Half-sister to several winners, including Fredricka and Poppy In The Wind, plus dam was a 2-y-o 5f winner. Likely-looking type and market should point the way. 

 

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Nantucket 16.35 Sandown 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Bet365

Nicely-bred filly who showed clear ability when mid-field in a minor event at Kempton first time out in Novermber and should benefit from the extra distance. That said, she has a bit to find. 

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Dark Defender 19.10 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 28\1 Whill

Unreliable sort. Off 7 months. First run for yard after leaving Keith Dalgleish.

Roaring Forties 20.10 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Ladbrokes

Latest win at Ayr in October. Off 147 days, last of 9 in handicap at Wolverhampton (7.2f, 13/2) 35 days ago. 1 of 2 for yard who won both divisions of this last year.

Donnellys Rainbow 20.10 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 12\1 Bet365

Not won since debut in 2016. Off 6 months, last of 9 in handicap at Nottingham (8.3f, 12/1) 19 days ago. On a good mark. 1 of 2 for yard who won both divisions of this last year. 

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Reticent Angel 16.50 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 10\3 Bet365 (bog)

Solid record in AW handicaps and shaped well on 6f Kempton return. 14/1, eighth of 12 in handicap at Sandown (5f, good to firm) 5 days ago, badly hampered. Cheekpieces back on. Could do better.

Dark Shadow 16.50 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 14\1 Bet365 (bog)

Winner of 5f Sandown nursery last summer but has offered little since, off 6 months and gelded then last of 12 in handicap at Nottingham (5f, good to firm, 8/1) 21 days ago,

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Dark Defender 19.10 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 28\1 Whill   5th 

Roaring Forties 20.10 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Ladbrokes   14th

Donnellys Rainbow 20.10 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 12\1 Bet365   5th

Reticent Angel 16.50 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 10\3 Bet365 (bog)   4th

Dark Shadow 16.50 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 14\1 Bet365 (bog)    1st @ 14\1   :drums

 held up and behind, steady progress on outside 2f out, ridden to lead well inside final furlong, ran on

 

Update 

Total Bets : 20

Wins : 1

Returns : 15

P/L : -5

Edited by Xtc12
Add P/L

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Kirkland Forever 13.45 Chepstow 1 Pt Win @ 11\2 Bet365

Proved better than ever when making a winning return in 14-runner handicap at Windsor (11.4f, good) 18 days ago, keeping on well. 4 lb rise fair and looks sure to go well again. 

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Kirkland Forever 13.45 Chepstow 1 Pt Win @ 11\2 Bet365

2nd - held up and behind, smooth progress on outside 4f out, every chance over 2f out, ridden and chased winner well over 1f out, no impression

Manolith 14.00 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 3\1 Bet365

Twice-raced winner. 1 win from 2 runs this year. 16/1, won 10-runner minor event at Ripon (5f, good) 7 days ago, bit in hand. Fancied to be in the mix again. 

Zumurund 14.30 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 10\1 Ladbrokes

Good second of 13 in handicap at Ripon (6f, good to firm, 25/1) 16 days ago. Appeals as being on a competitive mark and not dismissed out of hand. 

Hayadh 16.15 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 Bet365

11/2, creditable second of 10 in handicap at Musselburgh (7.2f, good) 14 days ago. 

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