Xtc12 Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 Don't think I have ever done a flat system so I am going to give this a go.This will be based on something I came across a while back on the success of trainers at certain tracks in certain races. I will be hoping to have a strike rate of over 35% with the best results coming in apprentice races and 4yo + handicaps. Going to keep it to level stakes and may the gods be with me. Nothing today, possibility of 1 tomorrow. yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 Good luck xtc I think I might jump straight into the Turf flat racing now though from memory I think we get a couple of weeks after Donny when there isn't much action ……. it's a false start to the new season ! Xtc12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted March 30, 2019 Author Share Posted March 30, 2019 All the best to you Trotter ... not really a lover of the flat but this may keep me interested. Shareef Star 16.20 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ 7\2 Bet365 (bog) Better with each start in maidens last summer. Top yard perseveres and highly likely there's more to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted March 31, 2019 Author Share Posted March 31, 2019 22 hours ago, Xtc12 said: Shareef Star 16.20 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ 7\2 Bet365 (bog) 7th - held up in mid-division on inside, not clear run from over 2f out until switched right inside final furlong, unlucky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 7, 2019 Author Share Posted April 7, 2019 Only took another week to get a bet in this: Yellow label 15.20 Windsor 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 (bog) Little promise and well beaten in Wolverhampton (9.5f) event on recent debut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 8, 2019 Author Share Posted April 8, 2019 23 hours ago, Xtc12 said: Yellow label 15.20 Windsor 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 (bog) 7th @ 50\1 - always towards rear Nothing tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 9, 2019 Author Share Posted April 9, 2019 Tigerskin 13.30 Nottingham 1 Pt Win @ 33\1 (bog) Modest form in 2 outings last year and appeals as more one for handicaps further down the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 10, 2019 Author Share Posted April 10, 2019 22 hours ago, Xtc12 said: Tigerskin 13.30 Nottingham 1 Pt Win @ 33\1 (bog) Modest form in 2 outings last year and appeals as more one for handicaps further down the line. Non Runner Nothing tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 12, 2019 Author Share Posted April 12, 2019 Dazzling Des 14.30 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 5\1 Bet365 (bog) Foaled February 5. €33,000 yearling, Brazen Beau colt. Dam, 2-y-o 5f winner, half-sister to useful 1m-10.3f winner Desert Kiss. Logi 15.05 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 Bet365 (bog) Three wins from 13 runs last year. Eleventh of 12 in handicap (12/1) at Newcastle (7.1f) 22 days ago. Is now operating 4 lb below last winning mark so not one to write off back on turf. Milton Road 17.55 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 11\1 PP (bog) Fourteen runs since last win in 2017. 10/1, step back in right direction when third of 13 in handicap at Wolverhampton (6.1f) 39 days ago, helped by being held up in strongly-run race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 15, 2019 Author Share Posted April 15, 2019 On 4/12/2019 at 11:46 PM, Xtc12 said: Dazzling Des 14.30 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 5\1 Bet365 (bog) 5th - close up, headway 2f out, soon every chance, no extra inside final furlong On 4/12/2019 at 11:46 PM, Xtc12 said: Logi 15.05 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 Bet365 (bog) 6th - towards rear, pushed along 2f out, stayed on final furlong, nearest finish On 4/12/2019 at 11:46 PM, Xtc12 said: Milton Road 17.55 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 11\1 PP (bog) 5th - tracked leaders, effort well over 1f out, soon one pace Well in these early days of Flat Racing I am not even getting a sniff of a place ! Spirit of Nicobar 16.00 Windsor 1 Pt Win @ 50\1 Bet365 (bog) Dunaden filly. Half-sister to 13.3f winner Scarlet Minstrel. Dam unraced. Wouldn't rule out a big run on debut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 15, 2019 Author Share Posted April 15, 2019 14 hours ago, Xtc12 said: Spirit of Nicobar 16.00 Windsor 1 Pt Win @ 50\1 Bet365 (bog) 13th - always towards rear Marhaban 17.20 Newmarket 1 Pt Win @ 13\8 Bet365 (bog) Barely seen another rival as he's led from pillar to post in a couple of AW events at up to this trip earlier this year. Gelded ahead of this turf/handicap debut and likely to do better still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 16, 2019 Share Posted April 16, 2019 I seem to recall reading somewhere that, contrary to popular belief, horses do not perform better on their 1st run after being gelded. Does anybody have any data to prove / disprove this? I don't think I'd be very co-operative if someone had done this to me ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 17, 2019 Author Share Posted April 17, 2019 Birdie Bowers / Tonquin Valley 14.15 Beverley 1 pt win @ 7/1 & 40/1 (bog) Troubador / Puerto Sol 14.50 Beverley 1 pt win @ 8/1 & 12/1 (bog) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 22, 2019 Author Share Posted April 22, 2019 Just to give an update on this 12 bets 0 wins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 23, 2019 Author Share Posted April 23, 2019 Hamlul 15.05 Yarmouth 1 Pt Win @ 7\4 (bog) 15/8, fourth of 6 in handicap at this course (11.5f, good to firm). Off 7 months but has the potential to do better as a 4-y-o. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 23, 2019 Author Share Posted April 23, 2019 13 hours ago, Xtc12 said: Hamlul 15.05 Yarmouth 1 Pt Win @ 7\4 (bog) 4th - slowly away and pushed along early, close up in rear, wide and effort over 2f out, soon no impression Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 25, 2019 Author Share Posted April 25, 2019 Mecca's Hot Steps 13.40 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 17\2 Betfair Foaled January 28. 18,000 gns yearling. Half-sister to several winners, including Fredricka and Poppy In The Wind, plus dam was a 2-y-o 5f winner. Likely-looking type and market should point the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 25, 2019 Author Share Posted April 25, 2019 13 hours ago, Xtc12 said: Mecca's Hot Steps 13.40 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 17\2 Betfair 4th - slowly into stride, towards rear, headway and switched left over 2f out, went 4th over 1f out, not trouble leaders Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 26, 2019 Author Share Posted April 26, 2019 Nantucket 16.35 Sandown 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Bet365 Nicely-bred filly who showed clear ability when mid-field in a minor event at Kempton first time out in Novermber and should benefit from the extra distance. That said, she has a bit to find. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 26, 2019 Author Share Posted April 26, 2019 12 hours ago, Xtc12 said: Nantucket 16.35 Sandown 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Bet365 9th - gave problems loading, tracked leaders, pushed along over 2f out, weakened 2f out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted April 28, 2019 Author Share Posted April 28, 2019 Dark Defender 19.10 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 28\1 Whill Unreliable sort. Off 7 months. First run for yard after leaving Keith Dalgleish. Roaring Forties 20.10 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Ladbrokes Latest win at Ayr in October. Off 147 days, last of 9 in handicap at Wolverhampton (7.2f, 13/2) 35 days ago. 1 of 2 for yard who won both divisions of this last year. Donnellys Rainbow 20.10 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 12\1 Bet365 Not won since debut in 2016. Off 6 months, last of 9 in handicap at Nottingham (8.3f, 12/1) 19 days ago. On a good mark. 1 of 2 for yard who won both divisions of this last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted May 1, 2019 Author Share Posted May 1, 2019 Reticent Angel 16.50 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 10\3 Bet365 (bog) Solid record in AW handicaps and shaped well on 6f Kempton return. 14/1, eighth of 12 in handicap at Sandown (5f, good to firm) 5 days ago, badly hampered. Cheekpieces back on. Could do better. Dark Shadow 16.50 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 14\1 Bet365 (bog) Winner of 5f Sandown nursery last summer but has offered little since, off 6 months and gelded then last of 12 in handicap at Nottingham (5f, good to firm, 8/1) 21 days ago, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted May 1, 2019 Author Share Posted May 1, 2019 (edited) Dark Defender 19.10 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 28\1 Whill 5th Roaring Forties 20.10 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 9\1 Ladbrokes 14th Donnellys Rainbow 20.10 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 12\1 Bet365 5th Reticent Angel 16.50 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 10\3 Bet365 (bog) 4th Dark Shadow 16.50 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 14\1 Bet365 (bog) 1st @ 14\1 held up and behind, steady progress on outside 2f out, ridden to lead well inside final furlong, ran on Update Total Bets : 20 Wins : 1 Returns : 15 P/L : -5 Edited May 1, 2019 by Xtc12 Add P/L Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted May 3, 2019 Author Share Posted May 3, 2019 Kirkland Forever 13.45 Chepstow 1 Pt Win @ 11\2 Bet365 Proved better than ever when making a winning return in 14-runner handicap at Windsor (11.4f, good) 18 days ago, keeping on well. 4 lb rise fair and looks sure to go well again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted May 4, 2019 Author Share Posted May 4, 2019 Kirkland Forever 13.45 Chepstow 1 Pt Win @ 11\2 Bet365 2nd - held up and behind, smooth progress on outside 4f out, every chance over 2f out, ridden and chased winner well over 1f out, no impression Manolith 14.00 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 3\1 Bet365 Twice-raced winner. 1 win from 2 runs this year. 16/1, won 10-runner minor event at Ripon (5f, good) 7 days ago, bit in hand. Fancied to be in the mix again. Zumurund 14.30 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 10\1 Ladbrokes Good second of 13 in handicap at Ripon (6f, good to firm, 25/1) 16 days ago. Appeals as being on a competitive mark and not dismissed out of hand. Hayadh 16.15 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 Bet365 11/2, creditable second of 10 in handicap at Musselburgh (7.2f, good) 14 days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted May 4, 2019 Author Share Posted May 4, 2019 Manolith 14.00 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 3\1 Bet365 3rd - tracked leader, every chance over 1f out, no extra final furlong Zumurund 14.30 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 10\1 Ladbrokes 8th - behind, headway over 1f out, never dangerous Hayadh 16.15 Thirsk 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 Bet365 1st @ 16\1 - chased leaders, every chance over 1f out, led inside final furlong, kept on well Update Total Bets : 24 Wins : 2 Returns : 32 P/L : 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted May 5, 2019 Author Share Posted May 5, 2019 Geepower 13.55 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 16\1 WHill Foaled February 2. £20,000 Power colt. Closely related to 7f-1¼m winner Alshalaal and half-brother to 7f winner Illusive Force. Dam 2-y-o 5f winner. Betting should guide. Champagne Victory 14.30 beverley 1 Pt Win @ 25\1 Paddy Power Foaled March 26. €7,000 yearling, Bungle Inthejungle filly. Dam lightly raced, sister to useful winner up to 11f Courtofversailles. Yarrow gate 14.30 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 7\1 Paddy Power Foaled March 13. Garswood filly. Half-sister to 6f winner Melrose Way. Dam winner up to 7f (including at 2 yrs). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 I seem to recall reading somewhere that, contrary to popular belief, horses do not perform better on their 1st run after being gelded. Does anybody have any data to prove / disprove this? I don't think I'd be very co-operative if someone had done this to me ! Only just noticed the above question over last 12 months Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Thanks for that, doesn't seem to make much difference then. Out of interest, where do you get your data from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 16 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Out of interest, where do you get your data from? I have my own database for most things but I got the gelding one from the RP which has a 365 day rolling stats record. Heres Tomorrows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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