Hunter Chases - Southwell 3.50 and Exeter 5.50

[Darran]

Where to start with the Kelso contest? We usually see at least one drama filled contest a season and this was certainly one of those. Beyond Gold was running a hell of a race when he came down at 3 out and it was a huge step up from his debut victory. He took out Hardrock Davis and as much as both seemed to be going well still I would like to think Hardrock Davis would have too much at the finish, but you couldn't be certain. Sir Lonica was a beaten horse at the time and it was a disappointing effort although it looked like he was about to be gifted the race until he was brought to a stand still allowing the winner and 2nd to catch him up. Coming to the 2nd last they were almost all in a line, but Sir Lonica unseated and although he wasn't going very quickly Longtymegone ended up winning by over 100L although that was because Costly Dream only just got himself over the last. It was a pretty brutal finish as the jockey on the winner decided to use his whip and the jockey on the 2nd should have pulled him up before the last and he got very lucky that the horse managed to scramble over the fence. They both should have been banned but only the winning jockey was. The form is obviously meaningless although the the two who came to grief at the 3rd last will fancy their chances of finding a Hunter Chase at some stage.

Only 4 runners at Southwell but an interesting battle between Monsieur Gibraltar and Stellar Notion. They both made their seasonal debuts on the same card at Larkhill and the former was just under 2 seconds quicker than the latter although he carried 13lbs more. Obviously Monsieur Gibraltar has won 3 times since including at Wincanton last time when he beat Risk A Fine under David Maxwell for the first time. Risk A Fine has boosted the form since and I can see this race being similar to that one because at Wincanton Risk A Fine front ran and Monsieur Gibraltar had too much speed for him and here Stellar Notion is likely to make the running and I think he will have too much speed for him. Granted Delegate will probably want to help with making the pace as well and as much as he ran a solid race at Ludlow last week that form for me is below what the other two have achieved this season although he will be more suited to this trip than Stellar Notion.

I can see Monsieur Gibraltar stalking the pace and then having too much speed for them down the home straight to claim another victory.

Monsieur Gibraltar 3pts @ 10/11 with William Hill, Betfair and Betfred

2 hours later we move onto Exeter and I think it looks a two horse race between Dicky Bob and Herbert Park. Dicky Bob was 2nd to Monsieur Gibraltar on his seasonal return at Larkhill which was a solid return. He was then ridden by the same novice rider the next twice when winning one before unseating at the 5th. Bryan Carver is making a name for himself this season and he took over the riding last time out when he bolted up by 25L beating Heaney who re-opposes here. The time that day was really quick and I can see him being hard to catch out in front. He won a Hunter Chase here 3 years ago beating last week's Taunton winner I'm All Set so we know he handles the track and he won't mind what the weather does.

Herbert Park won the same race Dicky Bob did last year when he just held off Master Baker. That was obviously a good effort although he disappointed at Fontwell the next time where I suspect the ground was quick enough as he was never really travelling that night. This season he has run once when he was 2nd to Virak which was obviously a good effort to start the season off with. He will be played late and will likely be the favourites final challenger.

I can't really have Glen Roe who was a surprise winner of a Hexham maiden hurdle in October having mainly struggled in Irish points. The 2nd home finally won a handicap off 110 and the 3rd has done nothing for the form so based on that I would be surprised if he was good enough to win this. Sam Red was better at Newbury when 4th than on his Hunter Chase debut when he pulled up, but on a line through Master Baker he can't beat Herbert Park. He is the one most likely to take advantage should the front two in the betting disappoint for whatever reason.

I think Dicky Bob will be hard to catch out in front and he is the main bet. At the prices though we can have a saver on Herbert Park as unless we see a repeat of Kelso I do think one of those two will win.

Dicky Bob 2.5pts @ 13/8 with Betfair and Paddy Power

Herbert Park 1pt @ 100/30 with William Hill and BetVictor

[Lisa603]

Unlucky today Darran, one of those days.

Darran, Can you remember a race some years ago where Maxwell was on a well backed fav and the horse pulled himself up when looking a certainty to win with less than 100 yards to go ?

I've been racking my brains all night and for the life of me i can't remember where it was or the names of the horses that filled the places -  i know the winner was at massive odds when looking to have no chance coming into the final stretch , and i think the fav was trained by PJ Hobbs , but i could be wrong on the trainer- and i think the winner had actually placed in the same race in years prior. 

Does that spark any memories in your mind palace? 

[Darran]

It certainly does. Ludlow on 26th Feb 2015. Out Now was the horse and he pulled himself up on the run to allow Bermuda Boy to get up and score. I remember it well because I backed the winner (was a saver at 33/1 with Out Now being the main bet) so it stuck in the memory. He did a similar sort of think a couple of years later in a Hunter Chase at Market Rasen.

[Darran]

Finally chance to look back at Aintree last week and what a win for Top Wood who fully deserved to win a big prize after two great runs at Cheltenham the last two seasons. He was given a great ride by Tabitha Worsely who had him in the perfect position the whole way. He was obviously helped by the fact that Burning Ambition dogged it once he hit the front. Derek gave him a great ride as he crept into contention turning for home and he was travelling like the winner after the last. Obviously if he had the chance to ride the race again Derek would have waited even longer, but it is a track that doesn't really suit horses that don't put it all in given the long run. As soon as he hit the front his head went straight up in there and yet again he didn't see his race out. I no longer think stamina was the issue at Cheltenham last season, but just the fact he doesn't find anything off the bridle. It could be mental or physical, but it is hard to see what they do with him now as he clearly has the ability to win a big one, but it is hard to see him going through with his effort as it stands to actually win one. I notice in he quotes that Derek reckons he will be some horse round Aintree next year as he is a big baby still, but I remain to be convinced on that one.

Road To Riches lost his chance when he belted the 4th last, but it was a cracking effort to finish 3rd and I thought David gave him a good ride. He should be up to winning more races based on this. Coastal Tiep came from a mile back to finish 4th and it was his best effort of the season so far. Road To Rome was next home and I have to say I lost a lot of confidence in the bet on him as the rain turned the ground soft as he isn't as good on it as he is on better ground. Possibly Cheltenham had left a mark as well, but to his credit he battled on well after losing the lead. If he was mine I would be giving him a break and aim him at the big one at Stratford as I think he would get away with 3m4f round there and it suits front runners.

Sir Jack Yeats was given a good ride by James King although at times he seemed to want to wander slightly going into his fences. He gave a good account but just faded late on. It could be this is as good as he is, but at the right level he will win more races. Kruzhlinin gave the 2nd last a real clout, but he was out of contention at the time anyway and Balnaslow looked a shadow of the horse who won this race last year. I thought Starkie ran well for a long way and he will be very interesting back in a lesser contest next time. 

Ucello Conti was a massive market mover before the off, but he made a bad mistake at the 5th and was pulled up after that. I was surprised he was backed and he certainly has something to prove after this. Seefood was getting a bit closer just as he came down at Becher's and he certainly remains a horse to be interested in. As for Wonderful Charm he may as well stayed in his stable once the rain started falling.

[Lisa603]

Thats the one !  

What a race that was - i sort of remembered it because i backed the 2nd Moscow Chancer.

Do you know if Gary Hanmer still trains p2p horses or runs any in hunter chases ? I know he has a full licence now but just wondered if you had seen any of his horses at any of these p2p meetings you go to.

 

I really rate him as a trainer 

 

Edited April 9, 2019 by Lisa603

[Lisa603]

stealing money with Gibraltar - wd 

[TimmyB]

Mugging it back at Exeter 

[Noodle bowl]

Shut up Timmy b you spoon fed 

I have been following darran since he stated posting his tips and I am in profit to lose that close is unlucky

Keep up the good work darran

[TimmyB]

6 minutes ago, Noodle bowl said:

Shut up Timmy b you spoon fed 

I have been following darran since he stated posting his tips and I am in profit to lose that close is unlucky

Keep up the good work darran

No slight on Darran's tipping at all (which has been excellent). Just sparring with Lisa - some you win and others you lose...

[Noodle bowl]

Ok I apologize I keep away from betting forums as there is plenty of wums but when I saw darran posting I thought bingo I have followed him before he has excellent knowledge

Yet again my apologies

[TimmyB]

Just now, Noodle bowl said:

Ok I apologize I keep away from betting forums as there is plenty of wums but when I saw darran posting I thought bingo I have followed him before he has excellent knowledge

Yet again my apologies

No problem. Actually hoping Darran's footie tips for tonight improve what's been a pretty terrible couple of days at the races!

[Noodle bowl]

Yeah had some crap luck 

I don't bet much anymore only group or graded races and darran tips  got fed of funding the bookies luxury lives will have a look at his football tips but football really hard to get right

 

[Darran]

Winners so far

Road To Rome 1.5pts @ 13/8

Road To Rome 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1

Road To Rome 3pts @ 11/10

Asockastar 1pt @ 9/4

Risk A Fine 4pts @ 8/11

Road To Rome 2pts @ 7/4

Bally River Boy 1pt e/w 3rd @ 12/1

Wonderful Charm 3pts @ 10/11

Shantou Flyer 2pts @ evs

Seefood 0.5pts @ 6/1

Shimla Dawn 1pt @ 7/2

Arthur's Secret 2pts @ 4/1

Ballotin 2.5pts @ Evs

Hazel Hill 1pt @ 6/1

Sir Jack Yeats 3pts @ 5/2

Burning Ambition 2pts @ 13/8

Arthurs Secret 3pts @ Evs (r4)

Master Baker 1.5pts @ 15/8

Optimised 1pt @ 9/4

Risk A Fine 2pts @ 13/8

Virak to beat Queen Olivia fc 0.5pts either £4.20 or £5.28

Top Wood 0.75pts e/w at 14/1

Hidden Charmer 2.5pts @ 9/4

Monsieur Gibraltar 3pts @ 10/11

Total staked so far I make 82pts. The returns are 150.31pts so I make that 68.31pts of profit so far

[Darran]

17 hours ago, Lisa603 said:

Thats the one !  

What a race that was - i sort of remembered it because i backed the 2nd Moscow Chancer.

Do you know if Gary Hanmer still trains p2p horses or runs any in hunter chases ? I know he has a full licence now but just wondered if you had seen any of his horses at any of these p2p meetings you go to.

 

I really rate him as a trainer 

 

He ran one in a point a year ago, but that was his first runner since 2015. His last HC runner was at Cheltenham in 2016.

[Darran]

Sometimes in racing a horse who appears to have no chance on the form book goes and wins and that is what happened at Exeter yesterday. Heaney was beaten 22L and 25L by Dicky Bob on his last two starts and yet he somehow managed to turn those margins around and win. Maybe it was the better ground, but even so it was a hard one to take. Maybe Dicky Bob would have preferred a bit more rain, but he has run well on good ground before and it wasn't like he was well beaten, indeed he looked the winner for most of the home straight. I think the fact Mountain Cliche didn't give him much peace up in front was a bigger reason why he lost. On the face of it it seems a good effort from Heaney so I think we have to take the form at face value. Herbert Park is a tricky ride and doesn't always go through with his effort and the winner probably wanted it a bit more than he did. 

At Southwell Monsieur Gibraltar had a very easy task and put the race to bed in a matter of strides just as they were leaving the back. He will win more for his owner who had interrupted a family holiday in France to ride in this. Stellar Nation was outpaced and in the end plugged on for 2nd from Delegate.

We have a bit of a break now before the next two races on Sunday at Wincanton and what could be a cracker at Stratford. 

[Noodle bowl]

Very impressive list 

Keep up the good work

 

[black rabbit]

well done darran great to see a P/L Account posted  

be lucky mate 

[Darran]

22 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

well done darran great to see a P/L Account posted  

be lucky mate 

As I always say in these things it is only a guide because people will have got different prices sometimes bigger, sometimes shorter but it shows roughly where I am at.