MCLARKE

Excellent start by The Brigadier with a nice profit for the day including the nap.
Also good to see that he is keeping up the BH tradition with the profits coming from those at 4/1 and above !

Excellent start by The Brigadier with a nice profit for the day including the nap.
Also good to see that he is keeping up the BH tradition with the profits coming from those at 4/1 and above !

Excellent start by The Brigadier with a nice profit for the day including the nap.
Also good to see that he is keeping up the BH tradition with the profits coming from those at 4/1 and above !

The big race of the weekend may well be Lostintranslation taking on Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase at Haydock but from a punting view the race which takes the eye is the Betfair Exchange Stayer’s Handicap Hurdle.
A field of 24 declared at the five day stage and with more rain forecast throughout the week the current ground conditions of soft can only go one way – a typical Haydock quagmire in store I feel.
Some big names have won this prestigious contest throughout the years including Sam Spinner and Paisley Park and this year’s weights are headed by top chaser Kalashnikov who will surely struggle at 3m if taking his chance.
The most intriguing runner in the field has to be Ronan McNally’s The Jam Man who absolutely bolted up in the Troytown Handicap Chase last time and reverts to hurdles here but off of a 14lb higher mark – he wont mind the conditions that’s for sure and with his trainer mooting earlier in the week a possible tilt at the Stayers Hurdle he would be one to have on your shortlist.
David Pipe has an excellent record in this race having won it 3 times in the last 10 with Grand Crus, Dynaste and Gevrey Chambertin and relies upon the remarkable Main Fact who has won 8 races on the bounce (5 hurdles and 3 on the level). The ground cannot be soft enough for him and although he’s yet to race beyond 2m 4f his style of running suggests he’ll even appreciate stepping up in trip as he only ever seems to get going at the finish of his races. He was some buy at a mere £6,000 out of Dianne Sayer’s stable, winning 8 of his 9 races since amassing £62,00 in prize money alone. He’s a worthy favourite and if he was to triumph here the 50/1 about him winning the Stayers Hurdle with bet 365 would look some value. Pipe also has Duc De Beauchene in the race and owned by legendary JP McManus is also very interesting. He landed a punt at the Open meeting at Cheltenham last season and although he disappointed subsequently he remains a dangerous horse off of bottom weight (he does have an alternate entry on Sunday at Uttoxeter)
Dan Skelton’s West To The Bridge comes here in good form having won at Carlisle last time but has to race off of a career high mark of 140 and that might be his undoing.
Fergal O’Brien is having a tremendous season so far and his novice Imperial Alcazar comes here as one of the well backed favourites following two novice hurdle victories last season though his best effort came when a neck runner up to chasing sensation Protektorat at Cheltenham on New Years Day . He steps up in trip and his mark looks workable for sure.
Portrush Ted is obviously a hard horse to train as he has only raced 8 times over the last 4 seasons but his record following a break of 87 days or more is  excellent (12111) He stays well and handles the mud so could be a player here.
Irish raider Relegate has raced only 3 times for Colm Murphy having been transferred from Willie Mullins’ yard and was outclassed last time. He’s 2lb lower now than when going off favourite for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last March and finishing 5th.
Olly Murphy runs two with Collooney having to prove his stamina and I K Brunel reverting back to the smaller obstacles after two runs in novice chases this Autumn. The Murphy yard seem out of sorts at the moment with a mere 2 winners from the last 45 runners so this pair are easily overlooked.
Cill Anna and Highland Hunter represent Paul Nicholls with preference for the former who ran well up to the last at Wincanton on his reappearance and will appreciate the softer ground.
Summary:- 
Main Fact is still improving and could be yet another winner of this contest for his trainer David Pipe despite running at this trip for the first time.
The best outsider may be Warren Greatrex’s Portrush Ted who has a terrific record fresh and appeals as one who could go well
Main Fact 1 point each way 7/1 Paddy Power
Portrush Ted ½ point each way 16/1 888 Sport
 
 
 

return 60.00, profit 40.00
this month - minus 72.50

1.50 hay- Le Ligerien 20/1 4places
2.25 hay- Ask Dillion 25/1 5places
3.35 hay-  Pobbles Bay  13/2  4places
Boylesports 3 e/w singles  3 e/w doubles  & 1 e/w treb

Took 3/1 on Bristol De Mai 

Some good National Hunt racing on Saturday and here’s my feelings on the 8 ITV races :-
1.50 HAYDOCK
A competitive handicap hurdle whose form will be worth following over the next couple of months. The novices Shakem Up’Arry and On The Wild Side are interesting making their handicap debuts but I’m keen to stick with Anthony Honeyball’s KID COMMANDO who won well at Ascot three weeks ago and will appreciate stepping up from 2m to the 2m3f trip here being a former 3m Irish point winner. The handicapper shunted him up 7lb for Ascot but to these eyes he still looks well treated.
KID COMMANDO 1 point each way 9/2 unibet
2.05 ASCOT
A disappointing turnout with only 4 going to post for a first prize of north of £25k. Real Steel has joined Paul Nicholl’s from Willie Mullins following his non staying 6th in last season’s Cheltenham Gold cup at 50/1. Nicholls also runs Black Corton who likes this track and will more than likely try and force the pace along. But it’s the improving IMPERIAL AURA that takes my eye. Impressive when not only winning the now defunct Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Festival in March but also at Carlisle 3 weeks ago. That should have put him spot on for this and despite the fact he is officially rated 7lb inferior at these weights to both the Nicholls’ horse I can see him winning this for the very much in form Kim Bailey.
IMPERIAL AURA 2 points win @ 15/8 william hill
2.25 HAYDOCK
As mentioned in my ante-post preview earlier in the week this will a real war of attrition over 3m in the Haydock mud.I’ll stick with my original fancy of MAIN FACT who’s on an incredible nine timer for The David Pipe team stepping up in trip. For me he’s never stronger than at the line in all his wins under both codes. Robbie Power riding Relegate for Colm Murphy is a significant jockey booking and in a wide open contest should run well.
MAIN FACT 1 point each way 15/2 bet365
2.40 ASCOT
Again another disappointing turnout of only three. Both Call Me Lord and Song For Someone have to shoulder 6lb penalties here and that may be too much against LAURINA who can also claim a 7lb mares allowance so effectively receiving a hefty 13lb from the boys. She’s another Jared Sullivan horse to have left Willie Mullins to join Paul Nicholls’ yard down in Somerset and like a lot of Nicholls’ has been given a wind operation. She’s immensely talented (4th in the Champion Hurdle in 2019) but it just didn’t work out for her over fences last season. At these weights she doesn’t even need to be within 10lb of her best form to beat the boys and I expect her to win.
LAURINA 2 points win @ 6/4 unibet
3.00 HAYDOCK
Bristol De Mai is a standing dish here with course figures of 1112 having won this in 2017 and 2018. He found LOSTINTRANSLATION just too good last season and it may well be the same case here again. I’m a big fan of Colin Tizzard’s chaser and although last season he had had a run I still expect him to come out on top. He’s scant value at around 6/5 but I can’t understand how he’s currently 14/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup next March. Tizzard’s horses all ran below par at the meeting for whatever reason with the exception of Lostintranslation who ran a stormer to be beaten a neck and 1¼ lengths behind Al Boum Photo and Santini who’s  current Gold Cup odds are 5/1 and 6/1 respectively. If he wins this that 14/1 will be a distant memory. I cant have the two rank outsiders despite this afternoons money for Bellshill but obviously Paul Nicholls’ Clan Des Obeaux is a big player.
LOSTINTRANSLATION 2 points win @ 11/8 william hill
LOSTINTRANSLATION 1 point each way @ 14/1 Cheltenham Gold Cup paddy power
3.17 ASCOT
The ground is the key to this race. If the ground is genuinely soft (the times were slow this afternoon) then I expect Kim Bailey’s FIRST FLOW to take plenty of beating. Bailey loves this horse but has stated on several occasions that very soft is essential for his mudlark. His mark of 148 looks very workable. On the other hand Henry De Bromhead’s Abbey Magic is a very talented who the trainer says is a good ground mare. Magic Saint won at Cheltenham last Saturday but is up 7lb here in a deep race whilst his stable mate Capeland bolted up in this last year and is only 7lb higher (that wouldn’t have stopped him then for sure). I’ll take a chance that there enough juice in the ground for First Flow.
FIRST FLOW 1 point win @ 5/1 william hill
3.35 HAYDOCK
I previewed this in the week and as expected the ante-post favourite Cloudy Glen failed to declare. I will stick with ALMINAR down the bottom of the weights for Devon trainer Nigel Hawke and stable jockey David Noonan who will love this test of stamina. He’s also had his wind done since he last ran which may squeeze out a bit more improvement. It looks wide open mind with plenty of dangers.
ALMINAR 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 (advised @ 16/1 in week)
3.50 ASCOT
A hard race to assess with 10 of the 13 yet to see a racecourse of any description. This will go to a newcomer with debutants from the big yards of Pauling, Nicholls, Tizzard, Twiston-Davies and Henderson. I can pass on a good word for the Nicky Henderson newcomer WRAYSFORD and he would be a tentative selection to small stakes.
WRAYSFORD ½ point win @ 4/1 william hill
 
 

Saturday's selection in the 1.23 at Huntingdon. ROCK ON ROCCO. Only 6yo, ran 34 days ago.

Saturday's selection in the 1.23 at Huntingdon. ROCK ON ROCCO. Only 6yo, ran 34 days ago.

Saturday's selection in the 1.23 at Huntingdon. ROCK ON ROCCO. Only 6yo, ran 34 days ago.

I have reviewed the results of this system for the previous NH season. In total there were 767 races with 1,998 qualifiers, 299 winners and a LSP of 259.90 points. The strike rate was 15% with a ROI of 13%. There were up to 9 selections in any one race.
If I restricted the selections to those where there was only 1 qualifier in a race then this reduces the qualifiers to 241. The strike rate increases to 20% and the ROI increases to 31%.
 
 
 

7.15 Newcastle - Be Proud - 8/1
Notable that decent claimer Oli Stammers is on Be Proud for the first time this evening. This gelding is a frequent visitor at Newcastle and often runs well here. His two career victories have come over this course and distance off marks of 54 & 62. His last two runs have been here, over 5f in October when 5th off 69 (only beaten 1 length) and then over 6f a couple of weeks ago also off 69, was beaten a good 4 lengths that day but I wouldn't take too much notice of that as 5f is his trip. He's been dropped another 2lb for that down to 67 and Stammers takes off a further 5lbs so is effectively back on a winning mark. His running style means he will probably need some luck in running but he's well drawn in 12 and should go well in a competitive race where there are plenty of consistent Newcastle performers.

Indeed ,Good luck all 

Nice one

Good luck, guys.

Welcome all! Support to the staff and forum! ??

Great ? 

Good news. Welcome guys, look forward to some juicy tips!

30 points profit returned 

Tomorrow's single horse selection is in the 1.13 at Catterick. SHAW'S DILEMMA. One of 3 6yo, last ran 256 days ago. Available at 14/1 with BOG bookmakers.

Tomorrow's single horse selection is in the 1.13 at Catterick. SHAW'S DILEMMA. One of 3 6yo, last ran 256 days ago. Available at 14/1 with BOG bookmakers.

It looks like the race distance has increased by a furlong or so in the last 2 years so I have extended my sample base to include 23/24f races.
7 out of 33 winners have had forecast odds of 8/1 or less compared to 4 from 117 with higher odds. This reduces the field from 19 to 4.
7 out of 52 came 1st or 2nd last time. This reduces the field to 2.
My favourite NH statistic, age less than 7. There have been 68 horses 7 or older and only 1 has won.
This leaves just one selection, IMPERIAL ALCAZAR. Currently available at 11/2 with 5 places available.
 
 

Tomorrow's single horse selection is in the 1.13 at Catterick. SHAW'S DILEMMA. One of 3 6yo, last ran 256 days ago. Available at 14/1 with BOG bookmakers.

Just the one horse tomorrow that is the only selection in a race.
MARKET RASEN 1.30 REGARDING RUTH. One of 2 6yo in the race, last ran 7 weeks ago. 
Available at 8/1 with BET365.