Racing Chat - Saturday 21st November

[DanV89]

11.35 Lingfield - Stay Classy - 8/1

I backed this one last time at around 16/1, there was a bit of money around for her that day and she was backed into around 10/1 at one point. That race was over 7f at Wolves, she got a very wide trip under 5lb claimer Angus Villiers and then finished really well into 2nd. Steps back up to a mile here today which looks sure to suit and has Adam Kirby up this time which can only be a positive. Looks a good ew price and would be surprised if she wasn't involved in the finish.

[The Brigadier]

Some good National Hunt racing on Saturday and here’s my feelings on the 8 ITV races :-

1.50 HAYDOCK

A competitive handicap hurdle whose form will be worth following over the next couple of months. The novices Shakem Up’Arry and On The Wild Side are interesting making their handicap debuts but I’m keen to stick with Anthony Honeyball’s KID COMMANDO who won well at Ascot three weeks ago and will appreciate stepping up from 2m to the 2m3f trip here being a former 3m Irish point winner. The handicapper shunted him up 7lb for Ascot but to these eyes he still looks well treated.

KID COMMANDO 1 point each way 9/2 unibet

2.05 ASCOT

A disappointing turnout with only 4 going to post for a first prize of north of £25k. Real Steel has joined Paul Nicholl’s from Willie Mullins following his non staying 6^th in last season’s Cheltenham Gold cup at 50/1. Nicholls also runs Black Corton who likes this track and will more than likely try and force the pace along. But it’s the improving IMPERIAL AURA that takes my eye. Impressive when not only winning the now defunct Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Festival in March but also at Carlisle 3 weeks ago. That should have put him spot on for this and despite the fact he is officially rated 7lb inferior at these weights to both the Nicholls’ horse I can see him winning this for the very much in form Kim Bailey.

IMPERIAL AURA 2 points win @ 15/8 william hill

2.25 HAYDOCK

As mentioned in my ante-post preview earlier in the week this will a real war of attrition over 3m in the Haydock mud.I’ll stick with my original fancy of MAIN FACT who’s on an incredible nine timer for The David Pipe team stepping up in trip. For me he’s never stronger than at the line in all his wins under both codes. Robbie Power riding Relegate for Colm Murphy is a significant jockey booking and in a wide open contest should run well.

MAIN FACT 1 point each way 15/2 bet365

2.40 ASCOT

Again another disappointing turnout of only three. Both Call Me Lord and Song For Someone have to shoulder 6lb penalties here and that may be too much against LAURINA who can also claim a 7lb mares allowance so effectively receiving a hefty 13lb from the boys. She’s another Jared Sullivan horse to have left Willie Mullins to join Paul Nicholls’ yard down in Somerset and like a lot of Nicholls’ has been given a wind operation. She’s immensely talented (4^th in the Champion Hurdle in 2019) but it just didn’t work out for her over fences last season. At these weights she doesn’t even need to be within 10lb of her best form to beat the boys and I expect her to win.

LAURINA 2 points win @ 6/4 unibet

3.00 HAYDOCK

Bristol De Mai is a standing dish here with course figures of 1112 having won this in 2017 and 2018. He found LOSTINTRANSLATION just too good last season and it may well be the same case here again. I’m a big fan of Colin Tizzard’s chaser and although last season he had had a run I still expect him to come out on top. He’s scant value at around 6/5 but I can’t understand how he’s currently 14/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup next March. Tizzard’s horses all ran below par at the meeting for whatever reason with the exception of Lostintranslation who ran a stormer to be beaten a neck and 1¼ lengths behind Al Boum Photo and Santini who’s  current Gold Cup odds are 5/1 and 6/1 respectively. If he wins this that 14/1 will be a distant memory. I cant have the two rank outsiders despite this afternoons money for Bellshill but obviously Paul Nicholls’ Clan Des Obeaux is a big player.

LOSTINTRANSLATION 2 points win @ 11/8 william hill

LOSTINTRANSLATION 1 point each way @ 14/1 Cheltenham Gold Cup paddy power

3.17 ASCOT

The ground is the key to this race. If the ground is genuinely soft (the times were slow this afternoon) then I expect Kim Bailey’s FIRST FLOW to take plenty of beating. Bailey loves this horse but has stated on several occasions that very soft is essential for his mudlark. His mark of 148 looks very workable. On the other hand Henry De Bromhead’s Abbey Magic is a very talented who the trainer says is a good ground mare. Magic Saint won at Cheltenham last Saturday but is up 7lb here in a deep race whilst his stable mate Capeland bolted up in this last year and is only 7lb higher (that wouldn’t have stopped him then for sure). I’ll take a chance that there enough juice in the ground for First Flow.

FIRST FLOW 1 point win @ 5/1 william hill

3.35 HAYDOCK

I previewed this in the week and as expected the ante-post favourite Cloudy Glen failed to declare. I will stick with ALMINAR down the bottom of the weights for Devon trainer Nigel Hawke and stable jockey David Noonan who will love this test of stamina. He’s also had his wind done since he last ran which may squeeze out a bit more improvement. It looks wide open mind with plenty of dangers.

ALMINAR 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 (advised @ 16/1 in week)

3.50 ASCOT

A hard race to assess with 10 of the 13 yet to see a racecourse of any description. This will go to a newcomer with debutants from the big yards of Pauling, Nicholls, Tizzard, Twiston-Davies and Henderson. I can pass on a good word for the Nicky Henderson newcomer WRAYSFORD and he would be a tentative selection to small stakes.

WRAYSFORD ½ point win @ 4/1 william hill

 

 

[Villa Chris]

Lots of action and selections for me on Saturday . 
 

Haydock 12.40, Newtide 11/2

Haydock 1.15, Dashel Drasher 3/1

Haydock 1.50, Kid Commando 4/1/ Flash The Steel 10/1 e/w. Kid Commando top rated, but really like the look of Flash The Steel who is second best rated. Money back on first selection if finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th. 
 

Haydock 2.25, Third Wind 13/2 e/w, Kalashnikov 14/1, e/w, paying 6 places.

Ascot 3.17, Abbey Magic 5/1

[Villa Chris]

Don’t bother with grade 1s unless it’s the big festivals. Might be tempted with Bristol De Mai, though. Now 5/2 and in my eyes the one to beat. Just cannot see Clan Des Obeaux winning. Usually needs the run and not sure this track and test of stamina will suit even though he’s won at Haydock before but in much calmer waters. Lostintranslation will be sure to give it a good go, and is probably  the best horse overall in the race, but hasn’t had a prep run this year and I can see Bristol De Mai being a tougher nut to crack this year.  I’ll be backing Clan for King George, would consider backing  LIT for the gold cup again, but reckon it’s Bristol De Mais day tomorrow. 

[MCLARKE]

Saturday's selection in the 1.23 at Huntingdon. ROCK ON ROCCO. Only 6yo, ran 34 days ago.

[Villa Chris]

Took 3/1 on Bristol De Mai 

[Tedthewolf]

1.50 hay- Le Ligerien 20/1 4places

2.25 hay- Ask Dillion 25/1 5places

3.35 hay-  Pobbles Bay  13/2  4places

Boylesports 3 e/w singles  3 e/w doubles  & 1 e/w treb

[The Brigadier]

3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Took 3/1 on Bristol De Mai 

great value 

[Villa Chris]

7 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

great value 

He’s 10/3 now. Apart from the main festivals I don’t usually bother with Grade A races, unless I can see a good bet, and this represents a good bet I reckon. The forecast rain hasn’t arrived like they said it would, but it’s still soft. Other than this race I’m not sure where else they can aim the horse. Clearly not a Kempton horse, and although has run well at Cheltenham , he’s never going to win the gold cup, not now anyway. They will be throwing the kitchen sink at this one. So will LIT but he’s got bigger things to go at. 

[The Brigadier]

13 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

He’s 10/3 now. Apart from the main festivals I don’t usually bother with Grade A races, unless I can see a good bet, and this represents a good bet I reckon. The forecast rain hasn’t arrived like they said it would, but it’s still soft. Other than this race I’m not sure where else they can aim the horse. Clearly not a Kempton horse, and although has run well at Cheltenham , he’s never going to win the gold cup, not now anyway. They will be throwing the kitchen sink at this one. So will LIT but he’s got bigger things to go at. 

Very true Chris, this is Bristol's Gold Cup for sure and lets not forget last year the ground was officially good to soft though as we all know the softer the better for him. Personally I'm in the Lost In Translation camp - its going to be cracker

[Villa Chris]

2 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

Very true Chris, this is Bristol's Gold Cup for sure and lets not forget last year the ground was officially good to soft though as we all know the softer the better for him. Personally I'm in the Lost In Translation camp - its going to be cracker

Yes really looking forward to it. Win or lose I’ll enjoy it. More importantly the horses come back in one piece.

[The Brigadier]

2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Yes really looking forward to it. Win or lose I’ll enjoy it. More importantly the horses come back in one piece.

my sentiments as well Chris

[alancraik]

todays selections


ASCOT 13:30 Yeavering Belle 8/1 e/w 3 Places

ASCOT 14:05 Black Corton 9/2 win

ASCOT 14:40 Laurina 13/8 win

[peanut peanut]

Hunt 1215- Kentukey Hardboot @ 7/2

Hay 1.15- Dashel Drasher @ 7/2

If ready ,this C/D winner, with suitable ground can hopefully grab a win after a 300 odd day break.

Asc 2.40- Laurina @ 13/8

Hay 300- Clan Des Obeaux  @ 9/4

[alancraik]

4 minutes ago, peanut peanut said:

Hunt 1215- Kentukey Hardboot @ 7/2

Hay 1.15- Dashel Drasher @ 7/2

If ready ,this C/D winner, with suitable ground can hopefully grab a win after a 300 odd day break.

Asc 2.40- Laurina @ 13/8

Hay 300- Clan Des Obeaux  @ 9/4

best of luck

[peanut peanut]

Cheers Alan , I see we have one the same so that is a positive 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

11.35 Lingfield - 2pts win At Ease @ 9/2

Bit surprised by the uneasy nature of At Ease here - out to 9/2 but is totally unexposed after 2 starts and beat an 84-rated horse last time with the pair a long way clear (receiving 5lbs). Third start on handicap debut off 74 looks more than achievable and is from a family of nice types so looks worth staying on the right side of.

12.40 Haydock - 1pt e/w Saint Xavier @ 12/1

A few of these will have long-term projects in mind and may not be fully tuned up for this contest so I'm willing to take a chance on Saint Xavier, who wasn't disgraced at 250/1 in the Charlie Hall when last seen. Has ability without being the easiest as seen when running away with a hurdle last year and following that up with a solid second. Has had excuses over fences so far but his mark is coming down as a result and this looks to suit a bit more so things could fall into place this afternoon. 

1.50 Haydock - 1pt e/w Flash The Steel @ 14/1

Still looks a bit of scope left in this one and conditions suit - was always staying on for 2nd behind Tea Clipper last time but had too much to do. Before that, ran a rock solid race in a competitive handicap at Cheltenham - a mistake at the last saw to his chances but still went pretty close and conditions suit here. A good gallop looks likely and that will suit so it looks a good each-way option. 

1.58 Huntingdon - 1pt e/w Dorking Boy @ 17/2

Flopped at Ascot over fences when last seen but was in form prior to that, running an excellent 2nd behind a better treated rival in a novice chase on seasonal debut. Has plenty of hurdling form last year so reverting back to this sphere after a poor jumping display looks a good move. Only 1lb higher than a comfortable win last year, has an amateur claiming 7lbs on board and should go well.

2.25 Haydock - 2pts win Relegate @ 5/1

Choosing the favourite in a competitive race but he's a healthy price for a jolly and surely is up to winning a race of this nature when the cards fall right. Stays this trip well but is typically ridden from off the pace as when getting a long way back at the Cheltenham festival before storming home from 2 out. Shaped well over 2m4f in a good race on seasonal reappearance to set him up for this and if getting the breaks (looks sure to get a solid pace to aim at) can get a deserved success.

3.17 Ascot - 2pts win First Flow @ 9/2

The favourite will have it tougher today off a higher mark just a week on from his win at Cheltenham and I like Kim Bailey's progressive charge. Hasn't had a run yet this season but I'm not too concerned about that with this one's connections and did very little wrong over fences last year. His rating hasn't got out of hand but conditions suit and I'm sure he can win races off marks in the 140s so will hope he can pick up where he left off. 

[Wildgarden]

500 Wolverhampton rectory road TO LOSE

Going for in play lay at 6.0 (currently priced 10.0) in hope rectory starts quicker this time to match the lay. Trainer terrible of late striking 4.2% from yearly average 10% all weather and overall on all weather and horse hasn't shown much on all weather in last two years.

Edited November 21, 2020 by Wildgarden

[Wildgarden]

730 Wolverhampton cemhaan 10.0 win Betfair exchange 3.2 place

Slow start short of room in 8f lto on slower ground. Moved to baker yard down in trip everything points to this one in my books.

[Wildgarden]

1135 lingfield I'm available Ew 9/2 skybet.

Will like the distance up and quicker pace 

[azzybear]

orchestrel rain 1.58 real steel 2.05

[Wildgarden]

14 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

1135 lingfield I'm available Ew 9/2 skybet.

Will like the distance up and quicker pace 

Never seemed to get into it held up again unplaced

[DanV89]

23 hours ago, DanV89 said:

11.35 Lingfield - Stay Classy - 8/1

I backed this one last time at around 16/1, there was a bit of money around for her that day and she was backed into around 10/1 at one point. That race was over 7f at Wolves, she got a very wide trip under 5lb claimer Angus Villiers and then finished really well into 2nd. Steps back up to a mile here today which looks sure to suit and has Adam Kirby up this time which can only be a positive. Looks a good ew price and would be surprised if she wasn't involved in the finish.

5th in a bit of a blanket finish where the winner got first run. Ran keen early on and I could be wrong but Kirby didn’t look like he went for the full drive either. One for another time I think. 

[DanV89]

3.30 Lingfield - One To Go - 9/1

Has had 4 runs since a break and admittedly has been poor but all those 4 runs have been on turf (latest on heavy when beaten 20 lengths) and all have been partnered by amateur lady jockeys. Prior to his break he'd been running consistently on the AW including over course and distance when a neck 2nd to Crimewave off 70. That day One To Go carried 3lb less than the winner, today he re-opposes on 5lb better terms off 67. Has been held up recently but from a plumb draw in stall 1 with Adam McNamara on board who has won on him before i'd expect him to go forward.

[Villa Chris]

Master Tommytucker looked good. Seems to be improving this year. Will no doubt see him in graded races next which will show us how good he really is. Travels and leads well. Beat a decent field today jumping well. Interesting to see how his jumping will hold out against better horses and how he handles that pressure. 

[Villa Chris]

-27 points today. One winner and one place. Must admit I never feel confident with so many selections(8 today) and much prefer 4 maximum. Last Saturday I only had two selections if I remember right, so it swings in roundabouts. 

[Villa Chris]

On 11/20/2020 at 3:23 PM, The Brigadier said:

Some good National Hunt racing on Saturday and here’s my feelings on the 8 ITV races :-

1.50 HAYDOCK

A competitive handicap hurdle whose form will be worth following over the next couple of months. The novices Shakem Up’Arry and On The Wild Side are interesting making their handicap debuts but I’m keen to stick with Anthony Honeyball’s KID COMMANDO who won well at Ascot three weeks ago and will appreciate stepping up from 2m to the 2m3f trip here being a former 3m Irish point winner. The handicapper shunted him up 7lb for Ascot but to these eyes he still looks well treated.

KID COMMANDO 1 point each way 9/2 unibet

2.05 ASCOT

A disappointing turnout with only 4 going to post for a first prize of north of £25k. Real Steel has joined Paul Nicholl’s from Willie Mullins following his non staying 6^th in last season’s Cheltenham Gold cup at 50/1. Nicholls also runs Black Corton who likes this track and will more than likely try and force the pace along. But it’s the improving IMPERIAL AURA that takes my eye. Impressive when not only winning the now defunct Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Festival in March but also at Carlisle 3 weeks ago. That should have put him spot on for this and despite the fact he is officially rated 7lb inferior at these weights to both the Nicholls’ horse I can see him winning this for the very much in form Kim Bailey.

IMPERIAL AURA 2 points win @ 15/8 william hill

2.25 HAYDOCK

As mentioned in my ante-post preview earlier in the week this will a real war of attrition over 3m in the Haydock mud.I’ll stick with my original fancy of MAIN FACT who’s on an incredible nine timer for The David Pipe team stepping up in trip. For me he’s never stronger than at the line in all his wins under both codes. Robbie Power riding Relegate for Colm Murphy is a significant jockey booking and in a wide open contest should run well.

MAIN FACT 1 point each way 15/2 bet365

2.40 ASCOT

Again another disappointing turnout of only three. Both Call Me Lord and Song For Someone have to shoulder 6lb penalties here and that may be too much against LAURINA who can also claim a 7lb mares allowance so effectively receiving a hefty 13lb from the boys. She’s another Jared Sullivan horse to have left Willie Mullins to join Paul Nicholls’ yard down in Somerset and like a lot of Nicholls’ has been given a wind operation. She’s immensely talented (4^th in the Champion Hurdle in 2019) but it just didn’t work out for her over fences last season. At these weights she doesn’t even need to be within 10lb of her best form to beat the boys and I expect her to win.

LAURINA 2 points win @ 6/4 unibet

3.00 HAYDOCK

Bristol De Mai is a standing dish here with course figures of 1112 having won this in 2017 and 2018. He found LOSTINTRANSLATION just too good last season and it may well be the same case here again. I’m a big fan of Colin Tizzard’s chaser and although last season he had had a run I still expect him to come out on top. He’s scant value at around 6/5 but I can’t understand how he’s currently 14/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup next March. Tizzard’s horses all ran below par at the meeting for whatever reason with the exception of Lostintranslation who ran a stormer to be beaten a neck and 1¼ lengths behind Al Boum Photo and Santini who’s  current Gold Cup odds are 5/1 and 6/1 respectively. If he wins this that 14/1 will be a distant memory. I cant have the two rank outsiders despite this afternoons money for Bellshill but obviously Paul Nicholls’ Clan Des Obeaux is a big player.

LOSTINTRANSLATION 2 points win @ 11/8 william hill

LOSTINTRANSLATION 1 point each way @ 14/1 Cheltenham Gold Cup paddy power

3.17 ASCOT

The ground is the key to this race. If the ground is genuinely soft (the times were slow this afternoon) then I expect Kim Bailey’s FIRST FLOW to take plenty of beating. Bailey loves this horse but has stated on several occasions that very soft is essential for his mudlark. His mark of 148 looks very workable. On the other hand Henry De Bromhead’s Abbey Magic is a very talented who the trainer says is a good ground mare. Magic Saint won at Cheltenham last Saturday but is up 7lb here in a deep race whilst his stable mate Capeland bolted up in this last year and is only 7lb higher (that wouldn’t have stopped him then for sure). I’ll take a chance that there enough juice in the ground for First Flow.

FIRST FLOW 1 point win @ 5/1 william hill

3.35 HAYDOCK

I previewed this in the week and as expected the ante-post favourite Cloudy Glen failed to declare. I will stick with ALMINAR down the bottom of the weights for Devon trainer Nigel Hawke and stable jockey David Noonan who will love this test of stamina. He’s also had his wind done since he last ran which may squeeze out a bit more improvement. It looks wide open mind with plenty of dangers.

ALMINAR 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 (advised @ 16/1 in week)

3.50 ASCOT

A hard race to assess with 10 of the 13 yet to see a racecourse of any description. This will go to a newcomer with debutants from the big yards of Pauling, Nicholls, Tizzard, Twiston-Davies and Henderson. I can pass on a good word for the Nicky Henderson newcomer WRAYSFORD and he would be a tentative selection to small stakes.

WRAYSFORD ½ point win @ 4/1 william hill

 

 

Decent enough day 

[The Brigadier]

1 minute ago, Villa Chris said:

Decent enough day 

Thanks Chris

[peanut peanut]

5 hours ago, peanut peanut said:

Hunt 1215- Kentukey Hardboot @ 7/2 ✖️ 3rd

Hay 1.15- Dashel Drasher @ 7/2 ✖️ 3rd

If ready ,this C/D winner, with suitable ground can hopefully grab a win after a 300 odd day break.

Asc 2.40- Laurina @ 13/8 ✖️ 3rd ( of three )

Hay 300- Clan Des Obeaux  @ 9/4 ✖️ 2nd

✖️✖️✖️✖️ 

[DanV89]

3 hours ago, DanV89 said:

3.30 Lingfield - One To Go - 9/1

Has had 4 runs since a break and admittedly has been poor but all those 4 runs have been on turf (latest on heavy when beaten 20 lengths) and all have been partnered by amateur lady jockeys. Prior to his break he'd been running consistently on the AW including over course and distance when a neck 2nd to Crimewave off 70. That day One To Go carried 3lb less than the winner, today he re-opposes on 5lb better terms off 67. Has been held up recently but from a plumb draw in stall 1 with Adam McNamara on board who has won on him before i'd expect him to go forward.

Completely missed the break and was out the back early. Wide around the final turn and stayed on well but not in the money unfortunately.