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Racing Chat - Friday 20th 2020

The Brigadier
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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Ascot stage an enthralling card on Friday and here are my early thought’s :-

12.20

A no play race from a punting perspective but it’s the chase debut of Nicky Henderson’s Chantry House who has schooled excellently and despite the fact he is rated a 3lb officially inferior horse to danger Pic D’Orhy his stable will be very disappointed if he doesn’t win this. A race not to miss.

12.55

It could be Nicky Henderson’s day at the Berkshire track with TIME FLIES BY the most likely winner. A Cheltenham bumper winner he ran twice over hurdles last season with his trainer stating in a recent Racing Post stable file that he ‘does everything right and should go far’ He’ll do for me here. Paul Nicholls’ Danny Kirwan has undoubted ability and apparently needed his season re-appearance when 3rd at Aintree but he’s seven now and has yet to win a race. Kim Bailey’s The Edgar Wallace is an interesting hurdles debutant , the trainer has been in top form this season and this is the most expensive young horse he’s ever bought winning a bumper for him last season and by all accounts he jumps well.  Time Flies By is a confident selection on a day that may be dominated by the master of Seven Barrows Nicky Henderson. 

TIME FLIES BY 2 points win @ 4/5 bet365

1.30

An intriguing contest with four potentially smart lightly raced horses. Nicky Henderson called his French recruit GIPSY DE CHOISEL very nice in a recent Racing Post stable file and now in the double green colours of Messr’s Munir & Souede could be the one. Harry Fry unleashes Metier who impressed when winning at Newton Abbot 3 weeks ago whilst Paul Nicholls saddles the JP owned Nimix De Juilley, another ex French horse but without a run for 792 days (never mentioned in his recent RP stable tour) with the biggest danger to Henderson’s coming from the Tizzard horse Amarillo Sky, an expensive purchase from the Irish pointing field and a highly promising fourth to Henderson’s Dusart at Newbury when the Tizzard horses weren’t really firing. The vibes are good for Henderson’s and he’s the bet.

 

GIPSY DE CHOISEL 1 point win @ 2/1 william hill

2.05

Espoir De Guye has had a wind op since we last saw him following a lack lustre effort at the Festival last season in the Novices’ Handicap Chase. A 255 day absence doesn’t usually bother a Venetia Williams trained horse and despite racing here off of a 14lb higher mark than when winning at the course last December he should run well.

Deauville Dancer starts out for the first time for Olly Murphy having previously been trained by David Dennis and although you could arguably classify that as a trainer upgrade the Murphy yard are not really firing at the moment (despite a nice bumper winner on Tuesday). An outsider I think is worth backing is the Paul Henderson trained 11 year old DOITFORTHEVILLAGE who has tumbled down the handicap to a very low mark. Forget his latest run when his trainer stated afterwards the ground wasn’t soft enough for him, surprisingly he was dopped 6lb for that run. Rated as high as 140 only four runs ago he races here off of 129 and could be value despite been the oldest member of the 9 strong field

DOITFORTHEVILLAGE ½ point ew 16/1 bet365

2.40

BUZZ stands out here and will take some beating. Nicky Henderson’s six year old was a highly credible third in the Welsh Champion Hurdle last time at Ffos Las with Ecco some 28 lengths behind him that day and only 1lb better off here. That form looks very good now with the winner Sceau Royal winning at Wincanton and Ballyandy who placed second that day running the same position in last weekend’s  Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham even  the 5th  Mario De Pail has won since. Only a pound higher here he stands out like a sore thumb. I can see him being very well backed. The opposition look weighted upto their ability and Buzz is the days nap bet.

BUZZ  3 point win @ 6/4 bet365

3.15

Dr Newland has had a good Autumn with his small string at his Worcestershire yard and can take this with MR MULDOON who won at Sedgefield on his chasing debut in a 9 runner novice event. Lack of experience is unlikely to be a problem as he has had 6 runs in Irish points and has failed to miss the frame in six outings under rules. The handicapper reacted by rising him 2lb for that run but the step up to 3m is much more to his liking and he holds a strong chance. Paul Nicholls’ Favorito Buck’s won this event two years ago and can race off of a 1lb lower mark so also comes into calculations though his last run was poor. Top weight Wandarin Star has won first time out the last two seasons and has had his wind tinkered with since last season so is another with some potential if fancied for the Kim Bailey yard.

MR MULDOON 1 point win 3/1 william hill

3.45

A tough handicap with the first show being 9/2 the field. The most interesting contender being the top weight Enqarde an ex French 6 year old having his first run for Dr Newland. The market will tell us what’s expected here no doubt.

Apple Rock flopped last time but that may have came too soon following his facile victory at Carlisle 8 days earlier and could be in with a chance despite a rise in the weights. It may be worth a speculative ew bet on Paul Henderson’s HATCHET JACK who may well have needed his well beaten 5th to Metier (runs in 2nd race) at Newton Abbot. He has some good handicap form in better company than this in the past and has dropped to a mark 10lb lower than when he was back then. He’s still a maiden and has obviously been hard to train so we’ll need a big price and small stakes but it’s that type of race!

HATCHET JACK ½ point each way 11/1 bet365

 

 

 

 

 

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DanV89

DanV89

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7.15 Newcastle - Be Proud - 8/1

Notable that decent claimer Oli Stammers is on Be Proud for the first time this evening. This gelding is a frequent visitor at Newcastle and often runs well here. His two career victories have come over this course and distance off marks of 54 & 62. His last two runs have been here, over 5f in October when 5th off 69 (only beaten 1 length) and then over 6f a couple of weeks ago also off 69, was beaten a good 4 lengths that day but I wouldn't take too much notice of that as 5f is his trip. He's been dropped another 2lb for that down to 67 and Stammers takes off a further 5lbs so is effectively back on a winning mark. His running style means he will probably need some luck in running but he's well drawn in 12 and should go well in a competitive race where there are plenty of consistent Newcastle performers.

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Bathtime For Rupert

Bathtime For Rupert

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All prices Bet365:

12.20 Ascot - 1pt win Up The Straight @ 10/1

Has a bit to find on figures clearly but in a 3 runner race I think he's worth chancing. I think he's a 140 horse over hurdles on his day including in novice races last year but has a big engine and looks the type to do well over fences. Has a run under his belt this year when staying on powerfully in a hot handicap hurdle at Cheltenham and with the favourite returning after a break and the second favourite not convincing with its jumping last time, I think it's worth chancing the outsider here who has untapped potential going chasing. 

12.30 Chepstow - 1pt e/w Master Grey @ 11/1

Seems a big price on hurdling debut in a fairly modest race with conditions likely to suit. Is an out and out galloper on the flat and is a heavy ground winner so assuming he jumps well enough, should keep grinding out in what's likely to be a slog. Question marks over several of the others in the field so at an each-way price, looks a reasonable bet. 

12.38 Catterick - 1pt e/w Ring of Gold @ 18/1

No great market support ahead of its hurdling debut but showed plenty of promise in four runs on the flat to secure a rating in the 70s and although his worst run was last time out, clearly has ability and shouldn't have an issue with this test. Has sufficient stamina in his pedigree and his dam was decent enough over hurdles too so looks an interesting recruit at a healthy price.

1.13 Catterick - 2pts win Dido @ 7/1

Quite sweet on this one today as although well held in 4th last time, it's possible the trip was slightly too far and it was also in a much better race than this. Had horses rated in the 100s and 110s in front that day yet the highest rated runner in this contest runs off 96. Prior to that he ran a solid race over an insufficient trip on seasonal reappearance and ran behind some well handicapped rivals last year so everything looks to have fallen into place for this one today.

1.30 Ascot - 1pt e/w Tile Tapper @ 8/1

Gets weight from those who have won races and I think holds a really solid chance here with market support a positive. Has run some rock solid races in bumpers including a few weeks ago which sets him up nicely for this. His bumper win at the end of last season saw him finish ahead of a horse who has subsequently run a 130+ rated hurdler close so the form stacks up and although this is hot, if he jumps, he can definitely be involved at the business end.

2.05 Ascot - 1pt e/w Doitforthevillage @ 28/1

Has a bit to prove having never showed on seasonal reappearance but 2 miles on good ground was always likely to be on the sharp side and this will suit much better. Has to show he still retains ability but didn't run too badly on a couple of occasions last winter and his form in the spring of 2019 would give him a big chance here on a much reduced mark. If coming on for last time and refinding his spark, could go better than the price suggests.

2.40 Ascot - 1pt e/w Et Meme Temps @ 10/1

Shaped well at Aintree on seasonal reappearance when racing keenly but being in with every chance until late on over 2m4f. That combination plus it being his first run of the season just saw him back out of things but the drop back in trip will suit here and was in good form last year. His close 2nd to a well handicapped horse at Carlisle bodes well and then ran a solid race at Cheltenham. Is a course winner and looks an attractive each-way proposition. 

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Trotter

Trotter

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The Megabucks Bahrain International Thingy is on RTV today at 1pm

Quarter of a Million to the winner

Lots of British and Irish interest ..... runners from Balding, O'Brien, Stack, Channon, Simcock, bin Suroor, Gosden, O'Meara, Appleby

Jockeys - Dettori, de Sousa, Curtis, Egan, Atzeni, Murphy, Tudhope, Buick, Moore, Spencer ......... and Hollie Doyle getting a ride for one of the big Japanese trainers on board globe-trotting mare Deirdre, who appears to be on the downgrade now. Be interesting to see if Hollie can get a tune out of her

There's a few unknown (to us) runners which makes selecting difficult ........ The Racing Post have tipped Simsir at 33/1 !

Most of the British and Irish look like horses who have maybe won group or listed races in the past but are struggling to win again now

I'd take a chance on one of the Irish horses - Lady Wannabe at 16/1 Wm Hill EW - was running in group races through the season but has recently found some form with Listed and group 3 wins in her last 2 runs .... might just be an improving type

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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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1 hour ago, DanV89 said:

7.15 Newcastle - Be Proud - 8/1

Notable that decent claimer Oli Stammers is on Be Proud for the first time this evening. This gelding is a frequent visitor at Newcastle and often runs well here. His two career victories have come over this course and distance off marks of 54 & 62. His last two runs have been here, over 5f in October when 5th off 69 (only beaten 1 length) and then over 6f a couple of weeks ago also off 69, was beaten a good 4 lengths that day but I wouldn't take too much notice of that as 5f is his trip. He's been dropped another 2lb for that down to 67 and Stammers takes off a further 5lbs so is effectively back on a winning mark. His running style means he will probably need some luck in running but he's well drawn in 12 and should go well in a competitive race where there are plenty of consistent Newcastle performers.

Well backed this morning as well Dan which has to be a good sign - good luck

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Villa Chris

Villa Chris

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16 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Weren’t going to bother with the 2.40 Ascot because ground conditions gone against my highest rated, but he’s ran ok on G/S before , and the going is Soft/GS in places. He’s also gone out to 40/1 so I’ll use my free bet on him now. It’s a free hit .

2.40 Ascot , Nelson River 40/1 ew , paying 3 places. 

Ran quite well. No match for the first two  but just held off and finished fourth  after making up a lot of ground on the run in. Never mind. 

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Striker

Striker

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10 hours ago, DanV89 said:

7.15 Newcastle - Be Proud - 8/1

Notable that decent claimer Oli Stammers is on Be Proud for the first time this evening. This gelding is a frequent visitor at Newcastle and often runs well here. His two career victories have come over this course and distance off marks of 54 & 62. His last two runs have been here, over 5f in October when 5th off 69 (only beaten 1 length) and then over 6f a couple of weeks ago also off 69, was beaten a good 4 lengths that day but I wouldn't take too much notice of that as 5f is his trip. He's been dropped another 2lb for that down to 67 and Stammers takes off a further 5lbs so is effectively back on a winning mark. His running style means he will probably need some luck in running but he's well drawn in 12 and should go well in a competitive race where there are plenty of consistent Newcastle performers.

Well done Dan, good post keep them coming

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DanV89

DanV89

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On 11/19/2020 at 3:53 PM, The Brigadier said:

Ascot stage an enthralling card on Friday and here are my early thought’s :-

12.20

A no play race from a punting perspective but it’s the chase debut of Nicky Henderson’s Chantry House who has schooled excellently and despite the fact he is rated a 3lb officially inferior horse to danger Pic D’Orhy his stable will be very disappointed if he doesn’t win this. A race not to miss.

12.55

It could be Nicky Henderson’s day at the Berkshire track with TIME FLIES BY the most likely winner. A Cheltenham bumper winner he ran twice over hurdles last season with his trainer stating in a recent Racing Post stable file that he ‘does everything right and should go far’ He’ll do for me here. Paul Nicholls’ Danny Kirwan has undoubted ability and apparently needed his season re-appearance when 3rd at Aintree but he’s seven now and has yet to win a race. Kim Bailey’s The Edgar Wallace is an interesting hurdles debutant , the trainer has been in top form this season and this is the most expensive young horse he’s ever bought winning a bumper for him last season and by all accounts he jumps well.  Time Flies By is a confident selection on a day that may be dominated by the master of Seven Barrows Nicky Henderson. 

TIME FLIES BY 2 points win @ 4/5 bet365

1.30

An intriguing contest with four potentially smart lightly raced horses. Nicky Henderson called his French recruit GIPSY DE CHOISEL very nice in a recent Racing Post stable file and now in the double green colours of Messr’s Munir & Souede could be the one. Harry Fry unleashes Metier who impressed when winning at Newton Abbot 3 weeks ago whilst Paul Nicholls saddles the JP owned Nimix De Juilley, another ex French horse but without a run for 792 days (never mentioned in his recent RP stable tour) with the biggest danger to Henderson’s coming from the Tizzard horse Amarillo Sky, an expensive purchase from the Irish pointing field and a highly promising fourth to Henderson’s Dusart at Newbury when the Tizzard horses weren’t really firing. The vibes are good for Henderson’s and he’s the bet.

 

GIPSY DE CHOISEL 1 point win @ 2/1 william hill

2.05

Espoir De Guye has had a wind op since we last saw him following a lack lustre effort at the Festival last season in the Novices’ Handicap Chase. A 255 day absence doesn’t usually bother a Venetia Williams trained horse and despite racing here off of a 14lb higher mark than when winning at the course last December he should run well.

Deauville Dancer starts out for the first time for Olly Murphy having previously been trained by David Dennis and although you could arguably classify that as a trainer upgrade the Murphy yard are not really firing at the moment (despite a nice bumper winner on Tuesday). An outsider I think is worth backing is the Paul Henderson trained 11 year old DOITFORTHEVILLAGE who has tumbled down the handicap to a very low mark. Forget his latest run when his trainer stated afterwards the ground wasn’t soft enough for him, surprisingly he was dopped 6lb for that run. Rated as high as 140 only four runs ago he races here off of 129 and could be value despite been the oldest member of the 9 strong field

DOITFORTHEVILLAGE ½ point ew 16/1 bet365

2.40

BUZZ stands out here and will take some beating. Nicky Henderson’s six year old was a highly credible third in the Welsh Champion Hurdle last time at Ffos Las with Ecco some 28 lengths behind him that day and only 1lb better off here. That form looks very good now with the winner Sceau Royal winning at Wincanton and Ballyandy who placed second that day running the same position in last weekend’s  Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham even  the 5th  Mario De Pail has won since. Only a pound higher here he stands out like a sore thumb. I can see him being very well backed. The opposition look weighted upto their ability and Buzz is the days nap bet.

BUZZ  3 point win @ 6/4 bet365

3.15

Dr Newland has had a good Autumn with his small string at his Worcestershire yard and can take this with MR MULDOON who won at Sedgefield on his chasing debut in a 9 runner novice event. Lack of experience is unlikely to be a problem as he has had 6 runs in Irish points and has failed to miss the frame in six outings under rules. The handicapper reacted by rising him 2lb for that run but the step up to 3m is much more to his liking and he holds a strong chance. Paul Nicholls’ Favorito Buck’s won this event two years ago and can race off of a 1lb lower mark so also comes into calculations though his last run was poor. Top weight Wandarin Star has won first time out the last two seasons and has had his wind tinkered with since last season so is another with some potential if fancied for the Kim Bailey yard.

MR MULDOON 1 point win 3/1 william hill

3.45

A tough handicap with the first show being 9/2 the field. The most interesting contender being the top weight Enqarde an ex French 6 year old having his first run for Dr Newland. The market will tell us what’s expected here no doubt.

Apple Rock flopped last time but that may have came too soon following his facile victory at Carlisle 8 days earlier and could be in with a chance despite a rise in the weights. It may be worth a speculative ew bet on Paul Henderson’s HATCHET JACK who may well have needed his well beaten 5th to Metier (runs in 2nd race) at Newton Abbot. He has some good handicap form in better company than this in the past and has dropped to a mark 10lb lower than when he was back then. He’s still a maiden and has obviously been hard to train so we’ll need a big price and small stakes but it’s that type of race!

HATCHET JACK ½ point each way 11/1 bet365

 

 

 

 

 

Buzz could hardly have been more impressive. 

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