Racing Chat - Thursday 19th November

[Villa Chris]

1.30 Market Rasen 

Tower Bridge 10/1 ew paying 4 places

Been off for best part of a year and may need run, but nice price for a horse that showed some strong hurdle form. Has also been sent chasing and produced some good runs, although pulled up last twice in two big competitive handicaps over in Ireland . Does most of his racing in Ireland and only comes over for the big festivals, so interesting that he’s been sent over for this.  Aidan Coleman on board. 

[The Brigadier]

MUCKAMORE (2.03 Market Rasen) makes his chasing debut in what looks an interesting novices’ handicap chase. An Irish point winner he ran three times in novice hurdles last season winning easily at Taunton in March at odds on. Prior to that he bumped in to two decent novices in Imperial Alcazar and Southfield Theatre. His initial mark of 125 looks fair with the only slight concern the ground which is officially good (good to soft in places). He’s only raced on soft ground so far in his short career but that’s not to say he won’t handle it well. His sire was 3^rd in the Irish Derby on good to firm and won the Gran Criterium on heavy whilst on his distaff side there are good ground winners.

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is in ok form with 5 winners from his last 39 runners (he had a winner at Ffos Las this afternoon) with his son Sam in the plate.

The main danger is another fencing newcomer Dr Newland’s  Minella Encore who has yet to be out of the frame in 8 runs under rules. He’ll be fit and should run well but I’ll take a chance on the Twiston-Davies 6 year old.

1 point win @ 2/1 bet365

FIRST LORD DE CUET (1.30 Market Rasen) was heavily punted when finding one too good at Sandown last time over 2m4f and will surely appreciate the step upto 2m 7f here as he is a former Irish point winner. He’s been raised 2lb for that effort and wears first time cheek pieces here which may help him in the finish. This is a Pertemps Hurdle qualifier for the final at Cheltenham in March so you may find a few of the higher rated horses happy to just finish in the first six to qualify for that day. No such issues with First Lord De Cruet as he need to get himself up the ratings to get himself into that final.

1 point win @ 3/1 Paddy Power

Roger Varian sends three up the A1 from Newmarket to Newcastle and he can be rewarded with a treble.

DUBLIN PHAROAH (1.50) appears to have little to beat and with conditions to suit can get the treble off to a flying start despite his short odds.

TEONA (2.50) bumped into a smart one of William Haggas’ on her debut over course and distance pulling well clear of the third. She’ll be well supported so take the first early price.

LEGION ON HONOUR (4.20) hasn’t been seen since running Devious Company to 3/4l at Haydock in June and with the winner that day going on to finish runner up in two Group 2’s and now rated 104 that was a fine effort. Back in 3^rd was Jadoomi who’s now rated 106, 4^th Youth Spirit now rated 104 and the 5^th has won twice since (91). He’s had a slight setback since but is back working well and although Archie Watson’s Colonel Faulkner will have his follower’s I’m with the Varian horse to give the stable a Wolverhampton treble.

2 point win treble @ Evs, 4/7, Evs  (5.29/1) bet365

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Wildgarden]

242 wincanton Et Apres Thou 

Down in class and slightly trip, was fav in the last higher class race and finished 5th from 11 in another hurdles race. Trainer also in decent form this month for anything under 10-1 usually close. May come back after break liking the ground and like the price 15-2 will hill / others for the e/w shout.

[MCLARKE]

33 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

42 wincanton Et Apres Thou 

Down in class and slightly trip, was fav in the last higher class race and finished 5th from 11 in another hurdles race. Trainer also in decent form this month for anything under 10-1 usually close. May come back after break liking the ground and like the price 15-2 will hill / others for the e/w shout.

Also fits the criteria of my handicap system, always good to have other evidence to back it up.

[MCLARKE]

Just the one horse tomorrow that is the only selection in a race.

MARKET RASEN 1.30 REGARDING RUTH. One of 2 6yo in the race, last ran 7 weeks ago. 

Available at 8/1 with BET365.

[alancraik]

todays selections


MARKET RASEN 13:30 Coolanly 5/1 e/w 3 Places

WINCANTON 13:40 Capone 8/1 e/w 4 Places

MARKET RASEN 14:33 Idliketheoption 10/1 e/w 3 Places

plus e/w trixie

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today

1.40 Win Buckthorn George 3/1
4.30 Chelm Galactic Glow 5/1
4.50 Nc Venturous (TM) 9/2

One £1 win trixie = £4 v poss return of £211

One single bet posted up here:  Joining in on the @MCLARKEmethod:

2.32 M/R Relkadam 50p win at 12/1 = £6.50 return to pay for my trixie ?

=====================================================================================================

Only Venturous won for me with Tom Marquand aboard so no double.  I had a small bet on it but didn't post it up.  Relkadam didn't run badly only beaten 2.5 lengths.  Haha, the other 6 year old won it (though it had been out since the last 28/31 days)

My multiples balance is now £627.69 (£800 Bank)

My singles balance is now £152.78 (£400 Bank)

There is some class action at Ascot tomorrow, though for most races the favourites prices are too skinny for my liking.  May play in the last two races.

 

 

Edited November 19, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Bathtime For Rupert]

A good afternoon of decent, competitive jumps action today so a busy one. All prices Bet365:

1.00 Market Rasen - 2pts win A Perfect Gift @ 7/1

I think this is a big price for a mare who has stamina as a strong suit and an extra furlong to contend with today at a stiffer track than last time. Was beaten by Sandymount Rose that day but the extra yardage and fitness back on her side will help her turn the tables and I'm sure she'll be up to this mark now her stamina is drawn out a bit more. 

1.10 Wincanton - 1pt e/w Annie Day @ 33/1

Wasn't up to much over 2m6f on hurdling debut but despite winning a point, I'm not sure she's a particularly strong staying type and the drop back to two miles looks more in her favour in my eyes. Wasn't disgraced in a bumper two starts back when presumably needing the run after a long break so hasn't had the chance to show her full potential yet. Her run behind Nada To Prada in a point reads well on that one's demolition of a field earlier this week and I think Annie Day is worth chancing at a big price now potentially getting ideal conditions.

1.30 Market Rasen - 1pt e/w Minella Warrior @ 14/1

Was ultimately well held at Cheltenham last time but he went well for quite a long way to say they forced quite a good gallop that day and those who prospered generally were held up off the speed. Shaped better than he had been over fences and should find this contest easier this afternoon. Another few pounds down the weights and could strip fitter now too so no forlorn hope off a decent mark with conditions to suit. 

1.40 Wincanton - 2pts win Do Wanna Know @ 7/1

Ran a bit of a stinker on seasonal reappearance last time but you have to judge this one on the remainder of its consistent form and that could have just been an off day. Possibly wasn't suited by the ground (only other run on deep ground was a win, but at 1/25!) and looks well treated on novice form. Beat a horse who subsequently rated 132 over hurdles (and 139 over fences) and then was leading at 2 out when falling, battling it out with another horse who is rated in the 130s now. On that evidence, a mark of 124 in a handicap looks workable and if bouncing back, 7/1 could look a tasty price.

2.33 Market Rasen - 1pt e/w I'dliketheoption @ 9/1

I backed this one last time and he ran better than the result suggested - was being kidded into the race when his jumping went to pieces and ultimately was pulled up late on. Is extremely well handicapped and this race is by far the easiest he's contested in a long time. Needs things to fall right but if his jumping holds together I'm hopeful he can keep tabs on this quality of horse and come into contention late on.

2.42 Wincanton - 2pts win Jumping Cats @ 5/1

The favourite is well in but didn't beat much when winning last time so I'll take him on at the price. Jumping Cats looks interesting having shaped with some credit in novice races for all he's fairly modest. The bare 2 miles was too short a couple of starts back considering this one stays 2 miles on the flat and ran okay last time on ground possibly too soft for him. These conditions should suit better all in all and it's not the strongest handicap so looks capable of getting involved late in the day.

3.12 Wincanton - 1pt e/w Getaway Fred @ 11/1

Was consistent in good novice hurdles last year before having little chance at the Cheltenham festival and was down the field in a hot novice chase at Uttoxeter when last seen. That came after a lengthy absence and I still don't think this one is an absolute mudlark even if he's been mainly campaigned in soft conditions. His action suggests he'll be just as good if not better on a sounder surface and there was promise on his chase debut even if he was left behind up the straight. Everything happened a bit quickly for him but he jumped well and should strip fitter now. I'd like to see them revert back to prominent tactics that served him well last year and going right handed will help too. Off a fair mark and I'm hoping he can bounce back today.

[DanV89]

4.50 Newcastle - El Hombre - 18/1

Has drifted so far today which is an obvious concern but looks a decent price nevertheless. Hasn't been beaten far at all in his last couple of starts at Wolves & Kempton respectively, both over 6f and weakened slightly late on. Was only 6th at Kempton last time but was only beaten 2 lengths so the result isn't reflective of the run. Has a good record at Newcastle overall and on his last start here was 4th to Caspian Price only beaten 1.75 lengths off 90. Runs off 84 today back in trip to 5f and should be capable off that mark as his last win came off 88.

5.30 Chelmsford - Merhoob - 12/1

Bit of a speculative one this as he has been well beaten in 4 starts since a break. However there should be plenty pace on in this race which will suit the hold-up style of Merhoob. Returned to action off 96 at this track in September and after more uninspiring runs he runs off 86 tonight. 2 time course and distance winner off 77 & 90 so could be good enough if on a going day and returning to any sort of form.

[Villa Chris]

21 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

1.30 Market Rasen 

Tower Bridge 10/1 ew paying 4 places

Been off for best part of a year and may need run, but nice price for a horse that showed some strong hurdle form. Has also been sent chasing and produced some good runs, although pulled up last twice in two big competitive handicaps over in Ireland . Does most of his racing in Ireland and only comes over for the big festivals, so interesting that he’s been sent over for this.  Aidan Coleman on board. 

E/W money returns 3.50 points profit. Rule 4 applied .

Edited November 19, 2020 by Villa Chris

[alancraik]

4 hours ago, alancraik said:

todays selections


MARKET RASEN 13:30 Coolanly 5/1 e/w 3 Places

WINCANTON 13:40 Capone 8/1 e/w 4 Places

MARKET RASEN 14:33 Idliketheoption 10/1 e/w 3 Places

plus e/w trixie

terrible, will try to do better tomorrow

[Wildgarden]

17 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

242 wincanton Et Apres Thou 

Down in class and slightly trip, was fav in the last higher class race and finished 5th from 11 in another hurdles race. Trainer also in decent form this month for anything under 10-1 usually close. May come back after break liking the ground and like the price 15-2 will hill / others for the e/w shout.

15p deduction estimated ( I did on exchange in the end 13% deduction there) 2nd for the place 

[MCLARKE]

23 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

DUBLIN PHAROAH (1.50) appears to have little to beat and with conditions to suit can get the treble off to a flying start despite his short odds.

TEONA (2.50) bumped into a smart one of William Haggas’ on her debut over course and distance pulling well clear of the third. She’ll be well supported so take the first early price.

LEGION ON HONOUR (4.20) hasn’t been seen since running Devious Company to 3/4l at Haydock in June and with the winner that day going on to finish runner up in two Group 2’s and now rated 104 that was a fine effort. Back in 3^rd was Jadoomi who’s now rated 106, 4^th Youth Spirit now rated 104 and the 5^th has won twice since (91). He’s had a slight setback since but is back working well and although Archie Watson’s Colonel Faulkner will have his follower’s I’m with the Varian horse to give the stable a Wolverhampton treble.

2 point win treble @ Evs, 4/7, Evs  (5.29/1) bet365

Nice treble !

[The Brigadier]

28 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Nice treble !

Thanks Michael, I think that Teona looks a lovely prospect going forward 

[DanV89]

4 hours ago, DanV89 said:

4.50 Newcastle - El Hombre - 18/1

Has drifted so far today which is an obvious concern but looks a decent price nevertheless. Hasn't been beaten far at all in his last couple of starts at Wolves & Kempton respectively, both over 6f and weakened slightly late on. Was only 6th at Kempton last time but was only beaten 2 lengths so the result isn't reflective of the run. Has a good record at Newcastle overall and on his last start here was 4th to Caspian Price only beaten 1.75 lengths off 90. Runs off 84 today back in trip to 5f and should be capable off that mark as his last win came off 88.

5.30 Chelmsford - Merhoob - 12/1

Bit of a speculative one this as he has been well beaten in 4 starts since a break. However there should be plenty pace on in this race which will suit the hold-up style of Merhoob. Returned to action off 96 at this track in September and after more uninspiring runs he runs off 86 tonight. 2 time course and distance winner off 77 & 90 so could be good enough if on a going day and returning to any sort of form.

NR & 3rd

[Wildgarden]

800 Chelmsford reviewed all horses and can't see anything getting past Thunder flash the favourite the one to beat for sure.

15/8 bet365 / others 

[Wildgarden]

45 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

800 Chelmsford reviewed all horses and can't see anything getting past Thunder flash the favourite the one to beat for sure.

15/8 bet365 / others 

Moved into 6-5 but 2nd to strong travelling engrave