Racing Chat - Wednesday 18th 2020

[The Brigadier]

Ffos Las and Warwick are the afternoon jumping fixtures but it’s the all weather meeting at Kempton that I see with the better betting opportunities, especially the 2yo contests.

Andrew Balding’s 2yo’s always improve plenty for their first run and his NAPPER TANDY (4.55 Kempton) looks the best bet under the lights at the Sunbury-On-Thames track.

He was green on his debut when coming wide off of the final bend at Lingfield to chase down Rewired, who went on run a cracker in a decent Class 2 Newmarket nursery. He’s well related in that he is a half brother to Balding’s winner Lorelina and despite a far from ideal draw of 11 of 14 expect him to go forward and take what looks on paper a very winnable median auction race. Hugo Palmer’s Mused is the early mover and the likely danger.

2 points win @ 15/8 bet365

Talking of the draw there brings me onto a Sir Michael Stoute runner BAY BRIDGE (5.55 Kempton) who has drawn 14 of 14 and that may well be factored into his price. The New Bay colt ran with promise on his debut when placing 3^rd in a soft ground Yarmouth novice stakes. He wasn’t knocked about that day and the step up a furlong will definitely suit. We just need jockey Ryan Moore to weave some of his magic to get across from that draw (we’ll probably know our fate after a couple of furlongs!). Likely favourite is the Charlie Appleby trained Rebel’s Romance who won at Newcastle on his debut with the 2^nd that day filling the same position behind the promising Gosden colt Mithras since. He’s also drawn relatively high and has to shoulder a 7lb penalty – he’ll be hard to beat but I’ll take him on with Bay Bridge. There are newcomers from the Gosden, Varian, Beckett & Haggas stables but you can’t beat experience which they don’t have as yet.

1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365

Charlie Appleby’s Godolphin operation could be back in the winners enclosure with his LAW OF NATURE (6.25 Kempton) who was a bitter disappointment on his debut on very soft ground at Newmarket on his debut trailing in 12^th of 13 beaten some 8 ½ lengths. He was backed into favouritism that day and is a lot better for sure. The main danger of those that have raced is John Gosden’s Daddy Frank who nearly caught Appleby’s Komachi at Newcastle on his debut. I’m not entirely sure that that form is that strong with both the 3^rd and 4^th beaten since, anyway he’ll certainly make the market for our boy.

1 point each way @ 9-2 bet365

KHUZOOM (6.55 Kempton) has been off the track for nearly exactly a year when just touched off in the corresponding race and I’m told that trainer Roger Varian has got plenty of work into  him and is expecting a winning re-appearance. He was ultra impressive when winning by 7 lengths over the course and distance prior to that second and has the All-weather Finals early next year as a target. William Haggas’s Johan comes here in winning handicap form and along with Ralph Beckett’s Kinross who takes a drop in class rate the biggest dangers.

2 point win @ 9/4 bet365

 

 

 

 

[Zilzalian]

For those who like a fav (which i very rarely do) 11:00am Chantilly tomorrow Fabre runs one called Midtown it is now 10/11 from 5/4. this animal didn't come off the bridal last time (first time out) winning by an easy 7l. I am forecasting great things next year for this Godolphin 2yo. Even suggesting it could turn up in our Guineas/Derby. Max bet for me this.

Can't believe i got 5/4 on midtown it went off and wins at 1/3. one for the notebooks horse this lads/lass's.

Edited November 18, 2020 by Zilzalian
race time omitted

[The Brigadier]

Thanks Zilzalian, he certainly looked good last time and if he cant beat Caribou who's won two nurseries than they're in trouble! 

[MCLARKE]

I'll stick with the method that gave me a winner today.

In the 3.40 handicap hurdle at Hexham 8 of the 17 runners are aged less than 7 but only 1 has been absent for more than 27 days, BUSHYPARK.

Currently available at 16/1 (BOG) with BET365. Again it may be worthwhile backing each way although rain is forecast so potentially there could be non runners that reduce the each way places.

[DanV89]

9 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I'll stick with the method that gave me a winner today.

In the 3.40 handicap hurdle at Hexham 8 of the 17 runners are aged less than 7 but only 1 has been absent for more than 27 days, BUSHYPARK.

Currently available at 16/1 (BOG) with BET365. Again it may be worthwhile backing each way although rain is forecast so potentially there could be non runners that reduce the each way places.

Hi mate, what about Buddha Scheme in the 2.30, does this not also fit your system?

[MCLARKE]

I notice that BUSHYPARK's only win was in Ireland on going described as Yielding to Soft. I must admit the going descriptions confuse me a bit in Ireland, they have good to yielding, yielding and yielding to soft, does anybody know what the GB equivalents are.

[MCLARKE]

12 minutes ago, DanV89 said:

Hi mate, what about Buddha Scheme in the 2.30, does this not also fit your system?

It does, the reason I didn't include it was that the best odds available were only available with a bookie that I am no longer able to bet with.

There are actually quite a few selections (20 in total) although in some races there up to 4 selections. I tend to stick with those races where there is only 1 selection.

 

[Villa Chris]

6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I notice that BUSHYPARK's only win was in Ireland on going described as Yielding to Soft. I must admit the going descriptions confuse me a bit in Ireland, they have good to yielding, yielding and yielding to soft, does anybody know what the GB equivalents are.

I’ve always looked at it as Good/Soft. It’s basically in between Good and Soft ground. 

[JBulmer]

Does anyone else think the market at 7.25 @ Kempton is a bit uneven? Like Rock Eagle is a bit of an unknown but onto victory soghan and true destiny tie in with island brave lucky deal and cleonte?

[The Brigadier]

8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I notice that BUSHYPARK's only win was in Ireland on going described as Yielding to Soft. I must admit the going descriptions confuse me a bit in Ireland, they have good to yielding, yielding and yielding to soft, does anybody know what the GB equivalents are.

I now what you mean Michael ! I agree with Villa Chris that yielding equals good to soft in British going speak.

[alancraik]

todays system selections

WARWICK 14:40 Valse Au Taillons 17/2 e/w 4 Places

WARWICK 15:15 Present Man 10/3 win

plus e/w double


One outwith the system

WARWICK 14:05 Stratagem 9/4 win

It seems to me to have the edge over Quick Grabim

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, JBulmer said:

Does anyone else think the market at 7.25 @ Kempton is a bit uneven? Like Rock Eagle is a bit of an unknown but onto victory soghan and true destiny tie in with island brave lucky deal and cleonte?

Looked at this race last night and was intrigued because i backed now children ew at 250/1 last time out i notice its 100/1 in this, the king horse i respect because i also backed that last time out in same race as now children, i follow charlton blindly but true destiny has let me down for 1000's, Cleonte is interesting ex french at one time and a good gg 66/1 is ew material because is it 66/1 that balding has ironed it out? So my thinking is small stakes on R/Fc's and hope for a whopper.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Brigadier said:

I now what you mean Michael ! I agree with Villa Chris that yielding equals good to soft in British going speak.

Thanks for that. In effect the Irish have a wider range of conditions, so a going of yielding to soft in Ireland is somewhere between the GB descriptions of good to soft and soft.

[Darran]

I like the claims of Duhallow Tornado in the 2.30 at Hexham. In his 2 hunter chase wins back in 2018 he looked every bit a stayer and he thrives on heavy ground. At the time of his wins at Catterick and Kelso I thought he had the talent to turn into a regional national horse and he still might. The Catterick win was especially impressive as he beat a good horse in Battle Dust and the 3rd went onto finish 3rd in the Aintree Foxhunter. He went to the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham after those two wins, but he found things happening too quickly for him on the quicker ground and was 4th. He then had to miss a season because of injury and returned this year with a win in a point, before finishing 14th in the Cheltenham Foxhunter which was probably as well as could have been hoped on ground he would have liked to have been softer. He warmed up for today in point at Maisemore when he ran a nice race to finish 3rd behind a possible Foxhunter horse in Wishing And Hoping, who ironically won the same Catterick Hunter Chase last season. Maisemore is a flat track so it wouldn't have been enough of a stamina test for him. I think he will improve for 4m on heavy ground and his jockey takes off 3lbs which doesn't go amiss. He's a big price e/w at 9/1.

Duhallow Tornado e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

It does, the reason I didn't include it was that the best odds available were only available with a bookie that I am no longer able to bet with.

There are actually quite a few selections (20 in total) although in some races there up to 4 selections. I tend to stick with those races where there is only 1 selection.

 

Hi M, many thanks for clarifying your rules a bit further.  I assume the method only applies to jump racing?

Just for fun I'll throw in a qualifier,albeit there are three in the race. 12.55 War Penny Mallow (almost joint favourite with Arian at around 2/1).  As you know I do take account of market support, however may be the price is too short for your criteria's long term success.  Not sure I'll put any money on it.  The going is good to soft and Venetia Williams is famous for winning races on heavy going.

Good luck with you system.  It will be interesting if you post up selections up to the end of this month and ideally throughout December to see if this strategy is profitable.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

12.30 Ffos Las - 1pt e/w Istorius @ 16/1

I backed this one on its debut for the yard and over hurdles last time and although the bare result tells you he was beaten out of sight, he was given an easy time in the saddle on his first run for more than 400 days and it was on testing ground which exaggerated the losing margin. Was sent off at 8/1 and did go well enough for quite a long way before running out of steam as he was entitled to do. Should know more now and be fitter for that outing and could be a good deal better now on the promise showed on the flat overseas.

12.45 Hexham - 1pt e/w Turtle Wars @ 8/1

I think there's got to be some question marks over those at the head of the market on ground conditions and current wellbeing so I'm happy to take a chance on James Moffatt's runner who typically runs well for all this trip would be on the sharp side for him. That said, he'll certainly see it out well and recent races at Hexham have been gruelling to say the least. If not getting too far behind, I'd expect him to be staying on well at the business end and hopefully that will suffice today. 

2.30 Hexham - 1pt e/w Nakadam @ 12/1

Was in the process of running a good race in this contest 12 months ago when coming to grief and ran a solid race over shorter when last seen. Is capable fresh, off a fair mark and we know will handle conditions better than most here. It's going to take a lot of getting and this one looks a prime contender to gain compensation for last year at an appealing price.

2.40 Warwick - 2pts win Star of Rory @ 9/2

Still looks fairly handicapped on a couple of runs last season including when a 7 length second to a progressive, well-handicapped horse and then when winning well a couple of starts later. Three miles just stretched his stamina inbetween but shaped with promise in a hot race at Cheltenham on seasonal reappearance and this is much easier. Conditions suit and with that run under his belt, should take the beating.

2.50 Ffos Las - 1pt e/w Broughtons Admiral @ 10/1

Was held in a class 2 race when last seen but that came after a lengthy absence and interestingly it was a similar story last year when beaten when falling on seasonal reappearance before winning easily a couple of months later. Has had a breather since, as he did last year, and the blinkers return under ideal conditions. This is an easier race and looks to hold sound claims when others in this field may not handle conditions as well as him. 

3.15 Warwick - 1pt e/w Theatre Guide @ 12/1

This horse has always had a place in my heart having followed him for years after winning a bumper at Chepstow in 2011. He's an old boy now at 13 but still has ability and shaped better than the bare result at Aintree last time having made some healthy progress towards the business end of the race. Ended up held but can take a couple of runs to find full fitness and could just be primed to go better now. Conditions are fine, he ran well at the end of last season so you don't have to go too far back for his last piece of form and he's worth chancing as outsider of the field.

[The Brigadier]

15 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

For those who like a fav (which i very rarely do) 11:00am Chantilly tomorrow Fabre runs one called Midtown it is now 10/11 from 5/4. this animal didn't come off the bridal last time (first time out) winning by an easy 7l. I am forecasting great things next year for this Godolphin 2yo. Even suggesting it could turn up in our Guineas/Derby. Max bet for me this.

Can't believe i got 5/4 on midtown it went off and wins at 1/3. one for the notebooks horse this lads/lass's.

Mind you there will be a rule 4 of 15p as the second fav didn't go but still a good return and well spotted - he certainly looks one to follow on that sort of ground

[Zilzalian]

5 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

Mind you there will be a rule 4 of 15p as the second fav didn't go but still a good return and well spotted - he certainly looks one to follow on that sort of ground

my bet returned better than evens so no complaints 100 - 206.28

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Hi M, many thanks for clarifying your rules a bit further.  I assume the method only applies to jump racing?

Just for fun I'll throw in a qualifier,albeit there are three in the race. 12.55 War Penny Mallow (almost joint favourite with Arian at around 2/1).  As you know I do take account of market support, however may be the price is too short for your criteria's long term success.  Not sure I'll put any money on it.  The going is good to soft and Venetia Williams is famous for winning races on heavy going.

Good luck with you system.  It will be interesting if you post up selections up to the end of this month and ideally throughout December to see if this strategy is profitable.

You are welcome. Yes, the method applies only to jump racing. I treat the 2 codes completely separately, I concentrate on the jumps from November to April and the flat from May to October.

In the 12.55 I have backed NIKAP because at the time it was the only one of the 3 that BET365 or BOYLESPORTS were offering the best odds on. These are the only bookies that I can use that offer BOG the night before racing. It was 13/2 but has now drifted out to 18/1.

I don't worry too much about the odds although I don't back anything where the forecast odds are less than 2/1.

I will continue to post selections on a daily basis, my nap and £20 daily challenge selections are also from this selection process.

I will summarise my results at the end of each month. It was very profitable last year but systems often have a short shelf life.

I now notice that BUSHYPARK is best priced 8/1 (from 16/1). I don't personally but would anybody lay this on Betfair to guarantee a profit ?

[Wildgarden]

40 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

You are welcome. Yes, the method applies only to jump racing. I treat the 2 codes completely separately, I concentrate on the jumps from November to April and the flat from May to October.

In the 12.55 I have backed NIKAP because at the time it was the only one of the 3 that BET365 or BOYLESPORTS were offering the best odds on. These are the only bookies that I can use that offer BOG the night before racing. It was 13/2 but has now drifted out to 18/1.

I don't worry too much about the odds although I don't back anything where the forecast odds are less than 2/1.

I will continue to post selections on a daily basis, my nap and £20 daily challenge selections are also from this selection process.

I will summarise my results at the end of each month. It was very profitable last year but systems often have a short shelf life.

I now notice that BUSHYPARK is best priced 8/1 (from 16/1). I don't personally but would anybody lay this on Betfair to guarantee a profit ?

11-1 lay exchange. Unless trading, never lay a back just because odds gone in... Overall ud be up more with original bet than winning a lay and paying commission ... U already have value in fact horse has moved in.

[alancraik]

4 hours ago, alancraik said:

todays system selections

WARWICK 14:40 Valse Au Taillons 17/2 e/w 4 Places 1 st 11/1

WARWICK 15:15 Present Man 10/3 win up

plus e/w double


One outwith the system

WARWICK 14:05 Stratagem 9/4 win 2nd

It seems to me to have the edge over Quick Grabim

 

[DanV89]

16 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I'll stick with the method that gave me a winner today.

In the 3.40 handicap hurdle at Hexham 8 of the 17 runners are aged less than 7 but only 1 has been absent for more than 27 days, BUSHYPARK.

Currently available at 16/1 (BOG) with BET365. Again it may be worthwhile backing each way although rain is forecast so potentially there could be non runners that reduce the each way places.

Gamble well and truly landed, 16/1 into 7/4!!

Well done mate.

[MCLARKE]

I agree, unless you expect the horse to lose (relative to the odds) there isn't any logic in laying it.

The only reason would be from a psychological perspective. Some people would prefer to make a profit of £10 a day for 5 days rather than lose £10 a day for 4 days and then a profit of £100 on the 5th day even though the latter option gives the highest profit overall.

I think the psychologists call it loss aversion. It suggests that the impact of a loss is twice as powerful as the impact of a gain.

It helps to explain why returns in the stock market are higher than in theory they should be. 

[MCLARKE]

6 minutes ago, DanV89 said:

Gamble well and truly landed, 16/1 into 7/4!!

Well done mate.

I didn't realise that Punters Lounge was so influential !

[MCLARKE]

For those that had the bet with Bet365 remember that is was one of their Feature 4/1 Offer races so if you backed it at more than 4/1 you will be entitled to a free bet equivalent to your stake (assuming you had less than the maximum £50!) on the 1.40 at Wincanton tomorrow.

[Villa Chris]

Nice winner again @MCLARKE 

[MCLARKE]

12 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Nice winner again

Ta. A bit of a purple patch at the moment on here but I am sure the next long losing run is not too far away !

[alancraik]

well done all the winners today

[The Brigadier]

17 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I'll stick with the method that gave me a winner today.

In the 3.40 handicap hurdle at Hexham 8 of the 17 runners are aged less than 7 but only 1 has been absent for more than 27 days, BUSHYPARK.

Currently available at 16/1 (BOG) with BET365. Again it may be worthwhile backing each way although rain is forecast so potentially there could be non runners that reduce the each way places.

Well done Michael, you're certainly in very good form - what a gamble - take a bow sir 

[The Brigadier]

6 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:

12.30 Ffos Las - 1pt e/w Istorius @ 16/1

I backed this one on its debut for the yard and over hurdles last time and although the bare result tells you he was beaten out of sight, he was given an easy time in the saddle on his first run for more than 400 days and it was on testing ground which exaggerated the losing margin. Was sent off at 8/1 and did go well enough for quite a long way before running out of steam as he was entitled to do. Should know more now and be fitter for that outing and could be a good deal better now on the promise showed on the flat overseas.

12.45 Hexham - 1pt e/w Turtle Wars @ 8/1

I think there's got to be some question marks over those at the head of the market on ground conditions and current wellbeing so I'm happy to take a chance on James Moffatt's runner who typically runs well for all this trip would be on the sharp side for him. That said, he'll certainly see it out well and recent races at Hexham have been gruelling to say the least. If not getting too far behind, I'd expect him to be staying on well at the business end and hopefully that will suffice today. 

2.30 Hexham - 1pt e/w Nakadam @ 12/1

Was in the process of running a good race in this contest 12 months ago when coming to grief and ran a solid race over shorter when last seen. Is capable fresh, off a fair mark and we know will handle conditions better than most here. It's going to take a lot of getting and this one looks a prime contender to gain compensation for last year at an appealing price.

2.40 Warwick - 2pts win Star of Rory @ 9/2

Still looks fairly handicapped on a couple of runs last season including when a 7 length second to a progressive, well-handicapped horse and then when winning well a couple of starts later. Three miles just stretched his stamina inbetween but shaped with promise in a hot race at Cheltenham on seasonal reappearance and this is much easier. Conditions suit and with that run under his belt, should take the beating.

2.50 Ffos Las - 1pt e/w Broughtons Admiral @ 10/1

Was held in a class 2 race when last seen but that came after a lengthy absence and interestingly it was a similar story last year when beaten when falling on seasonal reappearance before winning easily a couple of months later. Has had a breather since, as he did last year, and the blinkers return under ideal conditions. This is an easier race and looks to hold sound claims when others in this field may not handle conditions as well as him. 

3.15 Warwick - 1pt e/w Theatre Guide @ 12/1

This horse has always had a place in my heart having followed him for years after winning a bumper at Chepstow in 2011. He's an old boy now at 13 but still has ability and shaped better than the bare result at Aintree last time having made some healthy progress towards the business end of the race. Ended up held but can take a couple of runs to find full fitness and could just be primed to go better now. Conditions are fine, he ran well at the end of last season so you don't have to go too far back for his last piece of form and he's worth chancing as outsider of the field.

great work with Nakadam - lovely price as well