DrBetter

I would love a topic where we could trade our lists of potential games which could fit in an accas the week end.. do a kind of playlist, argue, comment, praise the winners (with screenshots of course)
This week, some matchs could go well in an acca, i wouldn't take any risks this week, but it's tempting:
PSG + Real + St Etienne+ Lazio + Liverpool... total odds at 12. 
That would be nice to put something on it, but not a good feeling this week. You could even add: Double chance Celta Vigo 2N + Double chance Sampdoria 2N... that's for the 5 big leagues ont this week, nothing else really tempting or with a good value..
So I don't know if someone want to make a topic, only on the 5 big leagues, from trebbles to 8 or 9 games combined... it will be just for fun, no ROI expectation here.. Just trying to hit something

Not sure someone quite new here like me is the right person to do it...   @StevieDay1983 ? I like how you do a sum up each time for every league, push for feedbacks, that's why i like so much the 5 big leagues topics... Or maybe @Sir Puntalot ? @andrewcalo seems to me you're also an accas enthusiast, wanna do it? Or too much work with those stats?  If nobody want to start it, let me know, i'll try to do my best..!
Agreed for separate thread each week btw, sounds good and easier to deal with and to become a popular topic... 

Not to be confused with Jihadi John who used to live at the top of a mountain in Afghanistan with a different system that wasn't very proven!

@Rivilearner I like a little acca on the side, it's a bad vice i know but i've won a few with odds between 30 and 80 (lost 95% of course), betting between 2 to 20 euros, and between 4 to 8/9 matchs, depending if i include a few double chance or Draw no bet, or even a few draws to raise the odds..
I know there is no point of doing accas, that i'm going to lose, i don't mind, it's a lottery ticket, i just like to play them, it's a vice ;-), i've had so many times 7 or 8 matchs good out of 9, always loosing on the last one (lately Liverpool, City, Napoli and Lyon made me lose a few good accas)...
If you bet accordingly, IMO it's perfectly right and quite funny to do 1 or 2 acca on the side... But it's been years that i try to find a good system, but never found one.. I've just lost so many accas during ages, that time after time you improve a bit, it took me years to learn how to stick with reasonable odds on my accas, go on 4 games and not 5, not putting my beloved teams in them (i still put PSG and monaco for months in every of my accas, lol), but they cost almost nothing, and a good win every month or two month cover easily the cost of these "irrational" bets..
And who knows, i know one day the planets will be aligned, it's been so close so many times... So don't hesitate to share your point of view on your next accas!

Hi Guys!
Agreed mostly with what's above about Real Madrid, i'm backing them too on this one, villareal just played also midweek, even if they were nearly out. But this week is pretty difficult...
Espanyol is tempting, but so many injuries.. But i'll back them on this one, Ossasuna has a few injuries too, they've done a few "not bad" matchs which worries me... but overall, Espanyol is pretty solid these times, mostly at home... 
No Aduriz, no Raul Garcia, no Laporte fot Bilbao, with a 2-0 loss this week at Nicosie... Too risky.. even at home, Granada is rising lately, playing better...
Sevilla seems to me the other reasonable choice for this week end, so...
Other games are not very interesting, I wouldn't back Celta, Barca neither, nor Valencia
 
My bet for this week is :
> Real madrid win at Villareal, combined with a win of Espanyol at home (i've a bad feeling about espanyol, but they performed so well recently.. kinda trust them). Total odds: 2,65
> Sevilla Win odds: 2,1
 
Good luck guys!
 

ah PL is finally back... it was about time! Tough week this one. @betcatalog good point above (again ;-)).. I'd love to follow you on this, and i would combined it with West Brom in a draw no bet. I would also go on Everton combined with a Liverpool win monday... don't like monday's match, but i've a good feeling about Liverpool, I don't see Leicester even catch a draw or even score... It would be better to go on a draw no bet on this one, but i'll pass and follow my gut, Liverpool is gonna do a hell of a match, and this time Schmeichel won't be able to stop everything like in Sevilla!
So 2 combined bets, and a very good feeling about both, which is usually a bad sign (and agreed, Defoe scares too each time i'm betting against sunderland):
> Chelsea-Swansea 2,5 Over + West Brom Draw no bet. Total odds: 2,2
> Win Everton + Win Liverpool. Total odds: 2,2
 

Coming in afternoon as usual. For sure, my mood is on top after a convincing victory yesterday

Eh eh eh.. Same thing to Monaco... but as said earlier, PSG would win this match 9 times over 10, so no worry... It's Dupraz... The Toulouse coach... I suspect him to be a wizard, his teams always perform well against PSG.. it's insane...!
Still i maintain, Madrid poorly loosing against valencia the other day, for me still, PSG = best club in europe (in the moment with Bayern) and in my heart of course, unwavering faith! 

I would just add that Betis vs Sevilla is big city derby and league positions never counts on this match. Fans on Benito Villamarin are the loudest fans in Spain and I believe that it won't be easy for Sampaoli's guys.
I agree with bet on Real who need a bounce back in this round as things are becoming little bit complicated (even tho they played with 70% reserve team in Rome). I wouldn't touch Barca, even tho this Atletico is far from the one we were used to watch in last years, but I believe that against Barca they will be motivated and regarding the situation in Barca, I would never back them. When did they outplay anyone for the last time? And no, it was not Eibar even if result was 4-1, Eibar was pretty unlucky in this match and if Denis wouldn't score a goal from distance, it would god damn hard for Barca to win. Midfield was icon of Barca, the strongest part of Barca, but Enrique decided to demolish it and play directly, with midfield only as supporting part of MSN. I hate him, I can not help myself. 

I agree, the derby games are always a lottery. I tend to go for the underdogs on a double chance because derbies often have the mindset that you simply must not lose. This results in so many ending in a draw. At those odds, I might just double chance Sevilla though because I've been impressed when watching them lately. I am also tempted to back Sevilla to win to nil because Real Betis have failed to score against their rivals in the past seven meetings.

Hi Guys!
Agreed mostly with what's above about Real Madrid, i'm backing them too on this one, villareal just played also midweek, even if they were nearly out. But this week is pretty difficult...
Espanyol is tempting, but so many injuries.. But i'll back them on this one, Ossasuna has a few injuries too, they've done a few "not bad" matchs which worries me... but overall, Espanyol is pretty solid these times, mostly at home... 
No Aduriz, no Raul Garcia, no Laporte fot Bilbao, with a 2-0 loss this week at Nicosie... Too risky.. even at home, Granada is rising lately, playing better...
Sevilla seems to me the other reasonable choice for this week end, so...
Other games are not very interesting, I wouldn't back Celta, Barca neither, nor Valencia
 
My bet for this week is :
> Real madrid win at Villareal, combined with a win of Espanyol at home (i've a bad feeling about espanyol, but they performed so well recently.. kinda trust them). Total odds: 2,65
> Sevilla Win odds: 2,1
 
Good luck guys!
 

Werder Bremen has the worst defensive record in the division with four conceded goals, conceding two goals per game average. Total has 16 to 21 over 2,5 and 17 to 21 goals and 7 goals in 10 goals away. Very important match for both, not feet are flat and do not trust because of their poor defense functions will go by scoring both groups
VFL WOLFSBURG vs WERDER BREMEN @@ Both team to score, odds 1.67

Without Ter Stegen, it would be 7-0. I wrote a longer post few weeks ago. With Rossel, Bartomeu, Enrique, this Barcelona is becoming Real Madrid. La Masia is drawning, our youth potentials are leaving, and it's interesting that they are able to play key roles in clubs as Bayern, Borussia Dortmund, Villarreal, Valencia... but they are not good enough for Barcelona. On the other hand, we are taking players as Mathieu (20M), Gomes (40M), next one is Cancello (30M), who is by the way backup for Montoya in Valencia, but Montoya is from La Masia and he is not good enough to be in Barcelona. That's why highly intellectual Enrique decided that Sergi Roberto (one of the best midfielders produced by La Masia in last 10 years will become right full back, that we will be able to buy 40M Gomes, who is overrated as shit. Thiago left for 18M, Gomes came for 40M. Thiago is by far the best player of Bayern, while Gomes is by far the biggest disappointment of Barcelona this season.
 
Neymar was trying to do something, true. But take a look of some things: 
- right side of Barcelona is crazily open to opponent.. and than everyone are blaming Sergi Roberto (Barca player with most tackles by the way).. I want to see one full back able to cover all of that. If Rakitić is not playing, no one is covering space behind Leo, and than Roberto is left alone and exactly that happened yesterday and is happening for whole the season. 

- Gomes tried, but he failed. He lost so many balls, he had only 1 tackle in whole game, he didn't create anything, he was lost in galaxy.
 
- Emery simply raped Enrique. He had five players, able to cover Leo and at least three of them were all the time able to press him every single time when he received the ball. Team played with high pressure and they're three midfielders had almost as many tackles as whole team of Barcelona. They also outran them with aprox. 8km more.

- Emery focused totally on Leo, while he actually left Neymar little bit more of space, covered only by Meunier and Verratti/later Nkunku, while Marquinhos was helping with closing down the space on both sides actually. Another player who was trying to make it harder for Ney was Di Maria, who was helping in defence a lot yesterday. Another problem was Jordi Alba who was far from being dangerous in this match.

- Both teams were mainly focused on attack over left flank, but Emery stopped main player of Barcelona, from who almost all dangerous balls are coming (Leo) and because of that Suarez was totally cut out of the match. On the other hand Barcelona didn't stop anyone from PSG. They were too late in duels, they were to slow in attack, Neymar even if he was trying, was holding the ball to long, and that's why only two players were needed to stop him and when he saw that it's not his day, everything was easier for Meunier.

In my opinion, high pressing won the game. And Enrique's thinking about Barca being a counter-attack team is a total shame. Leo is reason that he is still here. Without Messi and with his tactical knowledge, this would be mid-table team.

ehh? Ter Stegen was the best player on the pitch, it's said everywhere, everybody agrees in the press, some brillant saves, i've watch the match, he did 3 incredible saves... and can't do anything on the 4 goals...  
PSG are not so good? Come on, they're in quarter every year, and with more luck and less Barca these past years, they could have reached semis or final no doubt, they're 5 or 6 in the UEFA ranking over last 5 seasons... PSG is one of the best team in the world easily.. You're blind my friend... ;-) When you crush 4-0 the best team in Europe, it's not one lucky match, it means that you're solid, consistent, brillant, with talented players... But if it was a nightmare for you i understand your frustration and blindness ;-)

Agreed with everything above... I really think Napoli can catch a draw... Madrid is overrated right know you 're right!
But what i'm sure of, is that Man City is gonna be hit by a train in these two games against Monaco... You can't resist long against the best attack in Europe right now, even if you're guardiola... They're is no team like Monaco in PL, it's gonna be a real challenge for City, and i think they'll fail. Wenger didn't see it coming two years ago, and Monaco was weaker then... Monaco has certitudes, same coach, a real identity, a real style of playing, offensive, they're so efficient, deadly, and with outstanding players (this Monaco team is just full of young talents it's surreal), and I really think they could crush any premier league team right now...
The thing is IMO that the french league is not poor as said previously (it's the supermarket of the PL and the biggest producer of talents in europe, they've years of advance on PL teams in the formation of young talents). So, yes average team as you've said are weaker in France than those in PL, even though i'll be tempted to say that it's now less obvious than 5-7 years ago... Lyon, Nice, Marseille, St Etienne, new stadiums, lots of investments, clubs with regularity, smart in buying and selling... It's now paying... Lyon gave a hard time against Juventus not so long ago and deserved a win, and I'm sure you will see that Man Utd will struggle in europa league against St Etienne next week. So IMO, there is not a huge gap between these two leagues anymore. And for PSG and Monaco, they produce oftenly an amazing and beautiful football, both team, in Ligue 1 and in CL, and only Barcelona and Bayern are at that level or above this season... I don't see any PL teams right now close to that level of style, identity, tactical skills.. So yes, good and strong feeling on Monaco..!
I would also put something on PSG which is for me perfectly able to beat Barcelona.. I know it's Barcelona, but it's also PSG...!!  How many major teams in Europe have beaten Barcelona (or able to do it) these past years? Athletico Madrid, Real, PSG, Bayern .. that's it.. So PSG has much more than a chance, Cavani is on fire, and if Verratti is on the pitch, you can be sure that he will boss the midfield.. Not to mention that the best defense is the parisian one easily, T. Silva and Marquinhos are just enormous, allmost never a mistake.. Draxler and Di Maria are in great shape, Lucas around 15 goals, and Rabiot is for me, almost as talented as pogba, (but less than Verratti), overall a stunning young midfielder... Yes, go Paris... Enough of Barcelona...! Can you imagine that it's been 4 times in 5 years in champions league for them against each other? Plot you said? ;-)
Betting on both french clubs passing to the next round is risky but obvious to me.. (betting accordingly ;-)) Best arguments for PSG: T. Silva, Verratti & Cavani : the best vertebral column in Europe right now!  Not to mention that PSG has never lost a home game, in any european competition in more than ten years (One exception: Barcelona 2 years ago, and psg with a half injured team at the time in quarter.. 3-1, PSG beat them at home in group phase the same year). Real Madrid, or Arsenal also came recently, and were each time dominated, Arsenal didn't saw the ball, just managing to grab a lucky draw..
So PSG, Monaco and Napoli either to not lose (Draw no Bet, or double chance, Over 2.5, or even to qualify, it'll depend, but their chances are underestimated, agreed, and i would love to see Barcelona, City, and Real Madrid out at that stage..!

Marseille, are a laughing stock on their travels 

St Etienne played very well and were clinical. Too poor early goals conceded was too much for Lorient.
I think St Etienne is getting stronger towards the end of the season personally.

You're right. Sorry, thank you! 

No problem backing PSG for me, the way i see it is that PSG struggled against strong middle team sometimes, oftenly by lack of motivation, but they usually crushed them, and moreover PSG almost never struggle against a team which try to play, offer decent football, and try to be offensive like this 2017 Bordeaux ;-)
Yes PSG had a few bad games, but it's not the same team anymore.. I've a strong feeling they'll be able to beat Bordeaux, knowing Monaco is gonna beat Metz they won't let go the match, and Emery will motivate his players telling them that the best players on the pitch tonight will play against Barça.. So in my mind it could be a 3-0 easy win for Paris  with 11 warriors.. (but i know it could be a shitty draw with PSG players not taking any risks, avoiding contacts, but usually PSG win those match before the CL..). Bordeaux won't be able to stop a big PSG in champions league mode...
I'm backing Paris at 1,65 of course (combined with a win of Napoli also playing tonight, or Monaco tomorrow, haven't decide yet... total odds around 2,1)

Bordeaux - Paris Saint Germain
Full Event Away -0.75 (AH) @ 1.826 5/10 PINNACLE
Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 10 Feb 2017, 20:45
 
Match between 7th and 2nd team of Ligue 1 will be played on Matmut-Atlantique in Bordeaux and it will start at 20:45 on Friday. Bordeaux is coming to match after comfortable win in Caen (0-4). I need to admit that result did surprise me, but when I saw the goals, picture was clearer. First goal came because of critical mistake of 21 year old Leborgne, second goal after disastrous reaction of goalkeeper, third again after bad covering of Leborgne, who was totally lost in this game and I don't know why Garande let him on the pitch for 90 minutes. He was included also in 4th goal, and for whole match he had big big problems with Kamano. PSG is coming to match after unfair win, while they scored in last seconds of the match from clear offside. Even though they were much much better side, totally in control of the match, Areola made critical mistake and de Preville scored in 86th minute. Trapp is back in training process, but it's not sure if he will be in the goal this time, as Emery said that he still has full confidence for both goalkeepers. Also Marco Veratti is back, which means that only Pastore and Krychowiak will miss the match. If PSG wouldn't have match against Barcelona on Tuesday, my stake would be higher. Without doubts, quality is on their side, importance of the match as well, as they have chance to put pressure on Monaco, while Nice is back on winning tracks as well, so not even second place is not sure. Thiago Silva has spoken to the media and admit that Emery is tactically great coach, and that players are more and more adapted to his style of thinking, football, etc. I am talking about that for month and half, that if players will get Emery's ideas, than they could be much much stronger in future. Motta is suspended for the match in CL, so we can expect him on the pitch tonight. The only one who might be rested is Draxler, but I am not even sure about that. This match is too important, as failure can cause 5 points gap with Monaco and maybe even 3 points gap with Nice. On the other hand we have Bordeaux who's key players of midfield are Toulalan (33y), Plasil (35y) and "newbie" Sankhare. I expect nothing but defending by them, while in attack it won't be as easy as it was in Caen in midweek. All in all odds on PSG -0,75 jumped from 1,63 on 1,83 after mid-week round, and all of that because of 0-4 win of Bordeaux in Caen? I disagree with that. Cup match finished with 1-4, while I can perfectly remember match of Monaco here (0-4). PSG will take this one!

Hi, thanks for these feedbacks... After last week, i'll be tempted to stay on Everton, with City, no major injuries for both.. 
I haven't any good feelings about Chelsea at Burnley or Stoke this week, for me Everton can't loose, it's just impossible, and City don't play in CL next week, they'll be on fire to progress and do a few good games more until Monaco, and as you said Bournemouth is currently very bad..
So I'll put my money on Everton in a draw no bet, combined with a City win at Bournemouth.
Total odds: 2.1
Good luck!

Provisional bets here, will have a further look tomorrow. Might not place wagers on all of them either.
West Ham - WBA
I can see a resurgence on West Ham's side, with Bilic's men looking up like the giant killers they were last season. The replacement of Payet with Snodgrass seems to be a positive one and the morale of the team is looking up.
Pulis' men are fit to go and keep the scoreline low as usual. Philips and Rondon have slowed down a bit but Morrisson seems to have stepped up.
I expect a cagey affair.
U2.5 @ 1.833 (58% for WH and 67% for WBA at FT)
HT X @ 2.15 -> the Hammers have been drawing 67% of their home games at HT and WBA drawing 67% of their away games at HT
 
Man Utd - Watford
Mourinho's men have some decent fixtures ahead and they cannot afford to drop any further points, especially at OT which used to be a fortress. As a United fan, I would hope Martial to start and Pogba to perhaps be given a break and come on as a sub. Zlatan signalled his intent in an interview where he reiterated his desire to keep them goals coming.
Watford won last week vs Arsenal away and will have high spirits but I think that result reflects more on Arsenal's ability than Watford's prowess.
U2.5 @ 2.25 (probably best value) -> 58% for United, 46% for Watford at FT & 67% and 58% for H2H respectively (I personally think H2H is irrelevant in EPL)
United to win 1-0 or 2-0 @ 3.40 (combo correct score)
 
Swansea - Leicester
Swansea look like someone lit a fire under their arse and they are feeling the pressure.
LEI on the other hand look to be in freefall. Ranieri given 'vote of confidence', team is tired from overtime in FA cup vs Derby too.
They struggled to beat Derby who were only playing 3-4 main players too. Granted, LEI rested their main players as they are anticipating this game but their away form speaks for itself (still winless!).
As you can deduce, my reasoning comes from Leicester's terrible situation/form.
Swansea +1/DC @ 1.33 for those playing doubles/trebles etc.
Swansea win @ 2.45
BTTS @ 1.75
1 & BTTS @ 4.6
Obviously stake accordingly.
 
Middlesbrough vs Everton
Everton looked formed now and I will back them again for a win. Lukaku being streaky as he is, scored 4 goals last week and I don't see why he cannot build on that. No surprise omissions here, expect them to be full strength.
Middlesbrough will probably be missing Ramirez for this game. They have looked a bit toothless and tired. I can't see their defence withstanding Everton's frontline and moreso, they seem incapable of outscoring opponents.
The quality mismatch here sees me backing Everton.
Everton win @ 2.1 is easily the best bet here.
Not even going to bother with any other markets, I will take the 2.1 and run.
 
Bournemouth vs City
Bournemouth will be reeling after last week's result. It's funny how February sets apart the boys from the men and they also look to be suffering. Daniels and Francis potentially might be back which I reckon would be a major boost.
Unfortunately, they are coming up against a City side feeling the pressure of the top 4, Pep looks fired up and Jesus seems to be replacing Kun.
City also 2nd in away table and Bournemouth languishing around 10th.
Honestly, quality speaks for itself but I don't like most of these markets.
O3.5 @ 2.30 -> small stake from me
 
Liverpool vs Spurs
This is a massive game, not for punters but for all fans of the EPL.
Liverpool play great vs the top 6 and unexpectedly drop points elsewhere. Mane back and Lallana moved back to midfield as per usual.
Spurs have the quality but not sure if they will cause an upset. I can see this game going either way and Liverpool will have a statement to make given their abysmal start to 2017.
BTTS @ 1.66
Correct Score 1-1 @ 7
 
Arsenal vs Hull
Again, teams who look like their fortunes are changing. I personally think Silva has done a great job so far at Hull, even if he sold Snodgrass. They look a different team and he has obviously brought in his own staff but also players.
Arsenal look to be embarking on their usual February crumble stage and this complicates the markets for this game IMO. 
This game is a must-win for both teams.
Not a lot of value here but being the Greek that I am, might punt on Hull.
Hull +2 EH @ 2
 
Burnley - Chelsea
I believe the other punters here covered it well. home form vs general form/quality.
Chelsea should win it, as a United supporter I hope they don't but Hazard had a blinder last week and might be up for a few more.
Burnley defend really well at home and seem to get decisions go their way at Turf Moor.
U2.5 @ 2.00
Chelsea 0-1 or 0-2 (combo correct score) @ 3.6
 
Sunderland - Soton
Sunderland surprised everyone by smashing Palace last week. Great result for them as they look to peel themselves off the relegation zone. Confidence will do this team wonders and Defoe will lead the boys in the battle.
Soton haven't impressed me at all this season, perhaps defensively at times but that's about it. Since Austin's injury, none of their players have really stepped up (looking at you Redmond and Tadic) perhaps with the exception of Jay Rodriguez.
Leaning towards BTTS @ 1.90 or Sunderland +1/DC @ 1.775.
Not touching this one for now, I await other punters thoughts.
 
Best of luck.
 
 

I decided to skip Monaco in this week as well, as Montpellier has Boudebouz back in team, and specially because Jardim could rest Bernardo Silva as he is slightly injured and CL is coming soon... He is by far the most creative player in this league and even if Monaco has lot of good players, he is the one who can break any kinds of defences.

Besides PSG, I don't have any good feelings for those games... Montpellier with Gasset the new coach could do something at home against monaco, they've just won, Ikoné seems on fire as Mounie, i don't believe in it really, but tough one... Could be an easy victory for monaco too... But with the champions league coming soon, i wonder if some players couldn't have their mind and focus somewhere else...
I have a good feeling about Marseille, Metz and Nice but not sure i'll take any risks on these ones... St Etienne is perfectly able to catch a draw at Nice, no doubt for me.. tricky match..
Guimgamp is also not a bad team, coached by an ex-coach of PSG who is a real fighter, and insist on a real game identity, Guimgamp did a few good games, and sometimes deserved the victory in a few games... they're in a bad row, but can have a reaction at Marseille... I will wait until tomorrow to make a decision, but in the middle of a week, i'm not a big fan of these games which often produce some surprises.. 

Without words.. If this team would have one solid striker, they would be in top6. Without joking.