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StevieDay1983

Weekend > Feb 3rd - 5th

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The draw between PSG and Monaco last weekend pulled Nice back into the title reckoning. If Lyon win their game in hand then it is well and truly a four horse race.

This week, things could take an interesting twist. Monaco face Nice with PSG and Lyon set for potentially tricky away matches. Only three of the home sides are not heavy favourites this weekend. Can Bordeaux build on their four game unbeaten run? Will Dimitri *cough* snake *cough* Payet work wonders for Marseille?

@Pep004, you were clearly in the right with that Marseille tip last week. 5-1 winners in the end! Onslaught! I remember when Montpellier were European qualifiers! Sad to see. We will skirt over the Lyon bet... :lol

@sajtion, you fell for the Monaco odds! It was easy to do. Are you backing them to beat Nice?

@FCNA, a mixed bag for you last week. Always love your view from the inside so to speak. Got to be fancying your chances this week against Nancy! Win that and you're not looking way off the European spots. A good spell of form between now and the end of the season then who knows! Would love to see Nantes in Europe again. How is Remy Riou performing these days? He's my current keeper on my Ligue 1 side on FIFA Ultimate Team.

@vasilli07, you questioned Nice's title credentials and they duly answered. Think they can beat Monaco away? It's a big ask!

@betcatalog, you were brave with the PSG versus Monaco Asian Handicap bet. Well played!

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@StevieDay1983 I will respond on what you tagged @FCNA this time as I am living in Nantes as well. :p Nantes brought three new players at the end of transfer window (Nakoulma - national player of Burkina Faso who just lost yesterday in semis against Egypt after penalty kicks; Oliveira - 24y midfielder from Porto, who I believe that will help team as he is incredible midfielder, even though I think that midfield of Nantes is already quite solid; Heurtaux - 28y defender, played 104 games for Udinese. Personally I don't know him, but he played for Cannes between 2008-2012, so he knows Ligue 1 pretty well. I saw that they tried to sell captain Vizcarrondo who's time has passed in my opinion, but he didn't want to leave so he stayed in club. Team looks much much stronger right now than in start of the season, but main difference is in coach. I think that Toure would never receive chance under Girard. Conceicao brought energy and freshness and we were able to see improvements really quickly. I went on few training sessions and everything is much louder, more intensive, much bigger focus on attacking sessions than before. Also as a coach during the match, he is trying to give his energy to the team, he is jumping, giving orders, pressing on referee's,.. I believe that it's hard to see that on the tv, but you can easily see it on the stadium. On the other hand we need to admit that also squad is much stronger, but even if wingers were better (Iloki back, Pardo, Harit moved to winger position), there is still problem with attackers. In Coupe they prepared bunch of solid chances, but Sala is just Sala, and as long as he will be the best goalscorer of this team, we can not compete with high positions. I hope that Nakoulma will find his place in attack, even though he played a lot as a winger. I cannot help myself, but I am just far from being fan of Sala. And as I hear on the stadium, I am not the only one.

Besides.. Riou is sitting on the bench for a while. First he injured himself, and Dupe substituted him really really good, being man of the match against Montpellier as well, and for now he is nr.1. But it could change soon.

Edited by Pep004

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i'm expecting monaco to put nice to the sword with convincing victory and put some distance between themselves at the top of the table. nice have had 4 draws out of last six matches unlike monaco who have won their last couple of games by 4-0 and 5-0 scoreline.

lille are strong defensively and keep it very tight unlike their opponents. they scored in 6 out of last 8 matches while lorien keep conceding on average 2-3 goals per match

i would back bordeaux but i'm a bit apprehensive due to their hot and cold form too often. they are home side in any case and undefeated in last four matches. they have two victories in a row so these stats are in their favour. rennes have drawn 3 out of their 4 recent games so it hints to me they could put more emphasis on defending hence limit the the chance of bordeaux scoring.

Edited by sajtion

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At Nice there's a big difference between team as it was 3 weeks ago and team as it could be against Monaco. Except Pereira and Belhanda, all important players are back in squad, and it can happen that even Belhanda will be ready to play and than this is almost the same squad as it was when they were on 1st place (besides.. even with so many injuries, missing players, they are still up there). For me they are still underrated and even if I think that Monaco will win this match I think that odds are too low.

While Rennes lost another winger, after N'tep, now they will need to find solutions also without Grosicki who signed for Hull. Besides those two wingers, also third one Pedro Henrique left the club. Well, they bought Amalfitano from Lille, but he is far from being capable to substitute N'tep. I would say that not even Grosicki. On the other hand I agree with you, Bordeaux is playing "bipolar". They have also lost their captain Sertic who moved to OM, but they brought Sankhare from Lille on this position. 

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Mets have the third worst defensive line with 38 conceded goals. Total has 12 to 21 over 2,5 and 6 to 9 over 2,5 in the stadium. Marseille whole league has 12 to 22 over 2,5 and 8 to 11 over 2,5 and the same as the goal goal.
The two groups have very good offensive lines and can offer us an open game with many goals
FC METZ vs OLYMPIQUE MARSEILLE @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.95

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I've gone with Marseille to win at 1.91.

Metz have been woeful for weeks and can't buy a clean sheet. They also have two sendings off to deal with from last weak which should weaken them slightly. Marseille have a TERRIBLE away record this campaign winning only twice. however they have a dangerous attack when motivated and I see a team on the back of two good results and the potential debut of Payet as a good bet at this price against the 2nd worst side in the league.

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I would like to say that Payet already had a debut against Lyon in cup. :) They will get two players back from ACN, but anyway I think that OM will grab that win here. In general I agree with both bets, while I am really attracted by OM to score more than 1,5 goals here.

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FC Metz v Olympique Marseille

FC Metz: Diagne (3/0 d), Cohade (20/0 m) (both suspended), Mandjeck (18/2 m, 2nd top scorer, national selection), Udol (0/0 d), Diallo (20/1 f, left the club), Selimovic (0/0 m), Thill (1/0 f), Mollet (15/0 m)

Olympique Marseille: Diarra (10/0 m), N’Jie (13/3 f, national selection), Hubocan (12/0 d), Diaby (2/0 m), Alessandrini (6/0 f, left the club), Kamara (0/0 d), Evra (1/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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I decided to split 6 units on Marseille AH -0,5 and Marseille to score more than 1,5 goals. I really like the fact, that Metz has one of the most porous defences in the league, while Marseille loves to play with through balls. Also suspension of Cohade is big blow for Metz as he was the best player of this team in 2017, assisting both goals against Montpellier (2-0 win), and being player of the match in goalless draw in Nice.

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On 02/02/2017, 10:25:18, Pep004 said:


@StevieDay1983 I will respond on what you tagged @FCNA this time as I am living in Nantes as well. :p Nantes brought three new players at the end of transfer window (Nakoulma - national player of Burkina Faso who just lost yesterday in semis against Egypt after penalty kicks; Oliveira - 24y midfielder from Porto, who I believe that will help team as he is incredible midfielder, even though I think that midfield of Nantes is already quite solid; Heurtaux - 28y defender, played 104 games for Udinese. Personally I don't know him, but he played for Cannes between 2008-2012, so he knows Ligue 1 pretty well. I saw that they tried to sell captain Vizcarrondo who's time has passed in my opinion, but he didn't want to leave so he stayed in club. Team looks much much stronger right now than in start of the season, but main difference is in coach. I think that Toure would never receive chance under Girard. Conceicao brought energy and freshness and we were able to see improvements really quickly. I went on few training sessions and everything is much louder, more intensive, much bigger focus on attacking sessions than before. Also as a coach during the match, he is trying to give his energy to the team, he is jumping, giving orders, pressing on referee's,.. I believe that it's hard to see that on the tv, but you can easily see it on the stadium. On the other hand we need to admit that also squad is much stronger, but even if wingers were better (Iloki back, Pardo, Harit moved to winger position), there is still problem with attackers. In Coupe they prepared bunch of solid chances, but Sala is just Sala, and as long as he will be the best goalscorer of this team, we can not compete with high positions. I hope that Nakoulma will find his place in attack, even though he played a lot as a winger. I cannot help myself, but I am just far from being fan of Sala. And as I hear on the stadium, I am not the only one.

Besides.. Riou is sitting on the bench for a while. First he injured himself, and Dupe substituted him really really good, being man of the match against Montpellier as well, and for now he is nr.1. But it could change soon.

I did not know you were living in Nantes. Brilliant! :lol

Interesting information about Nantes. It all sounds very positive and gives me hope that they can push on for a top 6 finish possibly? The signing of Nakoulma could prove very shrewd. I might have to look at backing Nantes a bit more over the coming months.

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Rudi Garcia is the one who f... us up. I don't know if he was underestimating Metz, or why did he decide to leave Gomis and Vainequer on the bench. OM started really good, being all over the pitch. Sarr and Thauvin were 1on1 with Didillon from side, Gomis scored goal from offside, while Metz was also really lucky not to score an own goal (crossbar saved them). I can somehow understand that Rudi decided to rest players, even if I was really not thinking about that. Anyway even this team was pretty close to win, honestly they deserved to win, but they were poor at finishing, while specially in last 20 minutes Metz did it perfectly well.

 

I think that I still have a problem that if I really like the bet after analysing it, I am going with it even if bet is not as valuable as it should be to take it. As I am in little bit poor run lately I decided to slightly increase the stake which I think that is good, but I should really work harder on calculations and if value is to low, I should simply skip the bet. Actually I feel pretty awkward as I was arbing for a while, and odds were really important factor of my work but now.. I simply needs to work harder. I am sorry for bad results recently. Yield is still above 30%, and I will try to keep it above 20 till end of the season.

Edited by Pep004

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Marseille, in the 2nd half were pathetic. No urgency whatsoever. It actually looked like they would be happy with the draw which is quite bizarre given where they are in the league table. I guess the stats are there; don't back Marseille away and then be shocked to lose the bet ;)

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AS Monaco v OGC Nice

AS Monaco: Touré (8/0 d, doubtful), Carrillo (16/7 f, 2nd top scorer), Raggi (8/0 d, suspended)

OGC Nice: Obbadi (m), Srarfi (f) (both newcomers), Boscagli (1/0 d), Ricardo (16/1 d)

 

Dijon FCO v Paris St. Germain

Dijon FCO: Sammaritano (20/3 m), Abdelhamid (14/0 d)

Paris St. Germain: Pastore (5/0 m), Verratti (16/2 m), di Maria (18/1 m), Meunier (14/1 d), Trapp (10/0 first goalkeeper)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Match between very good teams with great scoring breath, however will go to the home Monaco, are more experienced, scoring at will and with the help of home to get three valuable points
AS MONACO vs OGC NICE @@ WIN AS MONACO, odds 1.55

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Hi guys! I'm new here, but i've been reading you guys for a while... Love the topics and your analysis... As i'm french, please excuse me for potential future grammatical mistakes. I'd love to share feelings, advices and tips with you on the ligue 1 and the 4 other big leagues on their respective topics.. 

Badbeat on Marseille last night for some of you guys, hope you'll rebound on next games... But as a PSG fan, i'm always smiling when Marseille loose.. ;-)

I wouldn't pick Monaco, even if they have a pretty good chance to win.. They won't have the stadium support, trust me, the whole town of Nice is just a few km away, it will be Nice fans all over the stadium, so don't count on Monaco's public.. It won't be a real home game... It's really a risky match. Plus, many Nice players weren't there during the last average games of january.. Now Balotelli is back, their midfield is now stronger with Serri who came back, Cyprien is getting better, and Plea can start to score again... And we've seen monaco's defense struggling against PSG.. Of course Nice isn't Psg, but still... A draw is highly possible.. too muck to take the risk for me..

I'm a fan of "2 games combination bets", so for this week end, I would put my money on:

- Lille in a draw no bet at 1,33, and a win of PSG at Dijon.

The win of PSG at Dijon makes no doubt for me, it will be a hard win because Dijon at home is good, beating Lyon 4-2 and had a deserved draw against Monaco 1-1, it could be probably risky to bet on the number of goals... But I see Paris rising and becoming unstoppable soon, they've just done a great match at Rennes... I really think they're gonna crush Dijon...

Thanks for this topic about ligue 1!  Good luck!

 

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Monaco tonight.

I've been watching a lot of French footy lately. Not only do the French play lovely fluid football which is a joy to see, Monaco in particular are brilliant at the moment.

i think the huge difference in odds despite Nice and Monaco sitting side by side in the table is a reflection of a sure home win.

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@andrewcalo why are we all the time on the opposite hill? :)  In my opinion there is no value in Monaco odds today. Honestly I think that they will win but I would never give them more than 60% to win the match. :) 

e: Many people who likes backing favourites will take AH -1 here, because of nicer odds. But I think that it could be a hell of research to analyse how many times this bet would go throw / be voided / be lost. 

Edited by Pep004

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34 minutes ago, Pep004 said:

@andrewcalo why are we all the time on the opposite hill? :)  In my opinion there is no value in Monaco odds today. Honestly I think that they will win but I would never give them more than 60% to win the match. :) 

e: Many people who likes backing favourites will take AH -1 here, because of nicer odds. But I think that it could be a hell of research to analyse how many times this bet would go throw / be voided / be lost. 

I was looking at both the double chance on Nice/draw and also +2 Nice...nice value there...lol

Edited by andrewcalo

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Sorry, I haven't read it in good way. :) We are on same bridge this time. I am actually thinking about goals here, as no one can stop Monaco's attack, while Nice is making lots of mistakes in defensive positioning, but they are hell of a team in build up and scoring.

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Monaco - Nice >> I decided to skip the match. I have planned to write for an over 2,75, but odds dropped to 1,74 now, so I won't play against value again. Team totals are set on 2,00 for Monaco and 0,75 with poor odds on Nice, where I haven't found value. The one of reasons why am I not going with asian handicap on Nice is that if anyone then Monaco is crazy team when it comes to clinical finishing and Nice's defenders are more like ball playing defenders than defenders focused only on defending. It is also hard to predict the winner of possession and approx. number of created chances for each team. For me personally it will be really interesting to see who will win possession, as both teams has some really really good midfielders. In my opinion Nice is underestimated in this duel, as they are far from the team which we were used to see 2-3 weeks ago. Many of their key players are back, if I would know that Belhanda is 100% ready for the match, than I would go with Nice AH +1,25 and over 3 goals.

p.s. Don't forget that stadium will be full of Nice supporters as there is approx. 15km distance between those two rivals.

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Hi guys, last one was a bad week end obviously. To be honest, it was the case for all the leagues isn't it ? Lazio beatten at home by Chievo, Draw for Naples against poor Palerme. Draws for Barça and Atletico... Good days for Books !

Here I go again cautiously.

Nantes vs Nancy Home Win

Nantes derseved the win in the derby. Inattention, lack of concentration, in the last minutes and the victory goes away. Nevertheless, it will not happen tomorrow. A good home team against a poor away one, a good mercato as underlined by @Pep004. Last argument, Nancy played 4 matches since the 21th of january, every 3 days. Nantes 3. With the current level of form training led by Conceiçao, difference will be occure in physique form. Advantage to Nantes.

Dijon vs PSG Away Win

Not yet convinced by PSG even if Draxler is a finally a good choice (compared to Jese or Ben Harfa:lol). But here levels are too opposite to expect another result. We will know who is this PSG against Barça, in a few days.

Lille vs Lorient Over and BTS

Risky bet but just look at the stats and you will follow me. Lorient need points, they can't stay behind and it's not their DNA. Last week, Lille didn't win for me, it's Lyon who lost, missing many occasions.

Some advices :

Bordeaux smells good but this team is on my black list, as you want.

TFC is sinking, sure for me that Dupraz will leave before the end of the year.

MHSC and the Racine's tragedy. It's over, Hantz was fired. Jean-Louis Gasset is on the bench. Historic of the club, Laurent Blanc 's assistant. Not a young one, but he's just missed his wife... What is his spirit, his energy ?? :eyes

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