Yes i noticed and it was the reason for my comment. Treat it like good or good to firm is my best advice. Back in the day when there was fibresand it was considered suitable for soft ground horses that (southwell) and the other tracks suffered badly with kickback. Since they were all relaid with poly and tapeta the kickback was all but eliminated. Like any turf track there will be horses suited or not suited so its reasonable to go with the good/ good to firm and my figures bare this out. also bare in mind that back in the day the aw was primarily for poor horses nowadays we have pattern races on the aw and good horses, maybe run the past aw champions days and other aw pattern races through your system to see how the horses turf form v aw compare.
I've already taken Gilbert on a handicap against Milkins but I'm surprised that the -3.5 is on offer at 4/5. He is already -1.5 and Milkins was lucky to go 5-3 instead of 6-2 when he tried a double and everything worked out for him, with reds on the cushions. Milkins was awful yesterday and far too attacking. I can see Gilbert extending his lead.
5pts Gilbert (-3.5) to beat Milkins 4/5 Bet365
Sorana Cirstea (+7.5) to beat Iga Swiatek at 1.62 with Bet365
Not a big fan of Swiatek at the moment, she seems bored by these matches, and she took her foot off the pedal big time yesterday in the second set, allowing Xiyu Wang to get a decent scoreline in the end. Cirstea could do even better.
Perhaps I'm over thinking it. The last 3 daily top rated have all won and I've ignored 2 of them (including 6/1 DARE TO HOPE yesterday) because the rating was achieved on the AW.