BKI's Bets

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Ayr 4:30 Valery Borzov 1pt EW - 25/1 (VC) Going for a big price in the Bronze Cup. Neil Farley saddles this horse and takes off a valuable 7lbs which effectively lets the horse run off 81, which he should be massively competitive off. It'll be his lowest mark for some time. His last win was in May 2009 off a mark of 97 when he was with the Nicholls stable. Fahey hasn't managed to bring out the best in him but he has been running off some huge weights given his actual ability. Goes on any ground and off 81 could be a massive player. Ran in the Gold Cup here last year and although down the field, wasn't disgraced 11 lengths behind the winner. Also ran in the Gold Cup the year before that and finished even closer. I'm going with the experience to play a part here and he's been kept busy and should be ready for this.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Ayr 5:05 Wicked Daze 4pt win - 9/2 (Skybet) I'm going with the top rated Wicked Daze here. Won two races in January off 85 on the AW, and on turf he has won off marks of 92 and 79, so the 82 here today doesn't look out of his reach. The horse has been to Ayr twice and finished second on both occasions, losing by just over a length combined, including a close up second to Ebor winner Dirar. Won at York in July making all and holding on well. Went to York again after that to another competitive handicap and almost managed to make all there again, getting beaten by Hawk Mountain in the closing stages. Was quite disappointing lto when sent off favourite, but the draw wasn't great. Makin is back on board here which is a positive and I think in this small field 9/2 is a massive price.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

3:45 Curragh Astrophysical Jet 2pt win - 5/1 (William Hill) Think this is quite a big price. Since dropping to 5f she's run twice, easily winning the first in a class 3 handicap, and then finishing third, less then a length away from Borderlescott. Captain Dunne placed in the listed sprint yesterday with Mister Hughie winning it, so the form looks strong. She's unexposed over 5f so could still be improving for the trip. Stable have only sent out 9 runners in the last 14 days, with three winners and two places so my selection could well be at peak form.

Won really well that day and runs tomorrow in the 3:40 at Newbury. 9/2 with Bet365 looks absolutely huge considering the manor of his win, and the opponents he faces today. Already 4/1 with other firms and even 10/3 with Lads. Simply cannot see this price lasting, will probably go off 5/2. 10pt win.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

1:45 York Life and Soul 1pt EW - 6/1 (Boylesports) Think these two are decent prices today. Life And Soul is lightly raced and has showed plently of promise so far this season, only disappointing when not being able to get a clear run, ruining his chances all together. Has run consistently well in other handicaps and looks sure to keep improving on his current mark, which might be a lenient 88. Conditions should be no problem and he'll have a good pace to come from. Trainer and jockey are both in cracking form too so he should be spot on.

Is again 6/1 today in the 4:40 at Newmarket. Think he holds strong claims once again. Was very keen lto and would have drained up a lot of energy at the business end. Did incredibly well to finish third when you consider the other three in the top four were all held up. Robinson is back on board and his record on the horse is 313 and the drop back to 10f shouldn't be a problem. 4pt win at 6/1 with Skybet.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:00 Newbury Satin Love 2pts EW - 18/1 (VC) Think this price is way too big. Was disappointing lto but that was over 7f on good ground which clearly didn't suit. Was just under 5 lengths away from Libranno over 6f in a hot race, so it's not completely clear as to whether or not the horse is suited to genuinely good ground, but at 18/1 it's worth chancing. Was an impressive maiden winner over 6f on GS ground so a bit of cut would obviously be ideal. Over the seasons Johnston has shown a healthy profit at the course so here's hoping that can be extended.

[Monterosso]

Re: BKI's Bets Well done with AJ mate, tops. :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Flat Bets: 70 Staked: 235.5 P/L: -17.41 Yield: -7.39% caldercruix -3.5 arabian spirit -2 harriet's girl +17.5 valery borvoz -2 wicked daze -4 astrophysical jet +45 life and soul -4 satin love -4 +43 Cheers Monte, clawing back the flat loss. :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: BKI's Bets Nice winner today :clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Cheers mate. :ok 4:20 Uttox Au Courant 1.5pt EW - 16/1 (Skybet) Think this lightly raced ten year old is way overpriced here. His race lto can be crossed off, was hampered at the first fence and never recovered after that. Is taking quite a bit of a drop in class here too. Finished only 7 lengths behind Big Fella Thanks in March, and even closer to Pasco. Has only had 12 lifetime starts, with 10 of them being over fences. Has won twice, both over this distance and on different types of ground, and in chases similar to these. Should be held up off the pace and with at least two horses that want to front-run here he should benefit from the pace. Paul Maloney is in the saddle and I rate him highly. He's managed to get 9 of his last 12 horses into the top three without winning, which shows consistency. Could throw in a little shock here at a good price.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:30 Plumpton Strong Coffee 3pt win - 11/2 (PaddyPower) Think this horse is on a very winnable mark. Wasn't far behind the likes of Hold Em in novice chases and was thrown into handicaps on a mark of 129 which proved to be way too much, struggling for a long time until it was lowered to 100. Won when unfancied at 25/1 off the 100 mark beating Rifleman in a modest contest over a trip half a furlong further than today's. Was then dropped back in trip slightly and has run two respectable races on 107 and 108 respectively, and has been kept to a mark of 108 for this contest back at the preferred trip. Leighton Aspell is in the saddle once more which is fine for me.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

Thanks BH. 5:20 Kempton Sagamore 1.5pt win - 4/1 (Skybet) Gosden in absolutely flying form so can't ignore one of his progressive types at this price. Won really well last time out and is now thrown into handicap company, but I think any improvement on his win lto will see him land this. Also has that winning experience on the AW, whilst some of the others don't.

Backing this one again at 9/2 with Skybet. Didn't run well lto, finished 5/7 14 lengths behind. Buick is back on board here, and I'm not sure Sagamore was particularly suited in making the running lto. Hopefully he'll have a bit of pace to follow here. Has been lowered 2lbs which is a bonus, as I think he'll prove to be better than he showed. 3pt win at 9/2. Edit: 4:30 Kempton.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:45 Perth Twelve Paces 3pt win - 7/2 (VC) Think he has been slightly overpriced here and holds outstanding claims. Has only gone over fences 10 times in his 24 race career, winning three and finishing runner up on two other occasions. Will have absolutely no problem staying the trip, has won at distances further than today's three miles and has won at 3m2f on heavy ground, suggesting he's packed with stamina. Today's GS conditions should be fine. Was brought back this season into a moderate handicap chase over three miles at Perth which he won by a neck. Would have been shorter than 9/2 that day but was probably fancied to need the run. Should come on plenty for that and can take today's race too, in suitable conditions. There are question marks over the stamina of a few rivals here, and whether they'll go on the ground. Timmy Murphy has ridden this horse to win twice in the past, once over fences and the other in a bumper, so it's good having him on board here. Think he should be more around the 5/2 mark personally.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 8:00 Wolves Secretive 2pt win - 10/1 (bet365) Dubai Dynamo 1pt EW - 33/1 (Skybet) Think these two are overpriced here. Secretive is only three years old with 12 runs to his name. Has been upped 5lbs for a good win in a class three handicap last time out, making all and fending off all rivals gamely on soft ground at Brighton. Appears to go on any ground though. Fanning is back on board and has won on the horse twice, and I think the horse could still have more to offer on a mark of 91 and worth risking at the price. Dubai Dynamo looks massively overpriced to me. Last win was in May. A 7f class three handicap at Newmarket when heading St Moritz on the line. Was upped to a mark of 99 for that effort and has struggled a bit, but is now down to a more realistic mark of 90, and given his last win was off of 94 it looks pretty lenient. Had a bad draw at Ripon when finishing 8th at 50/1 in a decent handicap but wasn't far off the winner (just under 8 lengths). Didn't run brilliantly at Redcar lto but again wasn't disgraced and was wearing first time blinkers. They are tried and tested again here today and 33/1 looks huge if he can hit early season form. Andrew Elliott takes the ride and has won twice on him in the past. Has also won on the Wolves AW surface.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:15 Ascot (Sat) QEII Beethoven 1.5pts EW - 25/1 (William Hill) Reduced field of 8 now that Canford Cliffs has been withdrawn, and I feel that Beethoven is too big to let go at 25/1. Really hasn't run a bad race all year. Has chased home Canford Cliffs twice and finished four lengths behind on both occasions. One was on seasonal debut, and the other was in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, when also behind Rip Van Winkle. Both were creditable efforts on his comeback. Went back to Ireland to contest in the small field group 3 Desmond Stakes and won cosily with a hands and heels ride from the young Joe O'Brien. Then contested in the Irish Champion Stakes and finished 4th in a field of 6, with Cape Blanco winning impressively by over 5 lengths. Was only two shoulders away from coming second, with Twice Over and Rip Van Winkle being the horses ahead. Comes here off the back of those runs and is likely to be in tip-top shape. The key here is that Ryan Moore now takes over from J O'Brien. He has ridden the horse twice. Once when winning the Dewhurst as a 2yo beating Fencing Master by a neck and the other in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, finishing 6th, less than 3 lengths away from the winner. Makfi is of course going to be a very tough horse to beat but I wouldn't back him at odds-on. Rip Van Winkle, although contesting in a few of the same races as Beethoven has had a much harder time of it and I don't think he's any value at the current prices. Poet's Voice was appealing at the 16s and it's a shame I didn't get on, but no value for me anymore. Is officially rated lower than Beethoven and I feel he'll have to improve quite a bit more to get involved here, which of course isn't beyond him. I feel Hearts Of Fire put in a one-off performance in the St James' Palace and is unlikely to repeat that. Air Chief Marshall is obviously being used as a pacemaker and Red Jazz and Bushman aren't good enough. My 100% book. evs Makfi, 100/30 Rip Van Winkle, 10/1 Poet's Voice, 12/1 Beethoven, 16/1 Hearts Of Fire, 50/1 Red Jazz, 66/1 Bushman, 250/1 Air Chief Marshall.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Decent jumps card tomorrow, will be interesting. 3:20 Market Rasen Grand Slam Hero - 5pt win - 7/1 (Bet365) Backed this horse in the thread lto when hacking up over a slightly longer trip at Ffos Las, but I have reason to believe he'll fare well in the drop back in trip. Before falling at the first (had never fallen before) and being pulled up (massive hampering early on) the horse had a string of 1's to it's name, and had gone from being rated 113 to 138 over fences. Kept the rating of 138 after being pulled up at Newton Abbot and was clearly well in at Ffos Las. Always travelling well, pulled wide in the straight by Paddy Brennan and cruised home. Was heavily eased before the line and the chasing pack made up 4 or 5 lengths in the last 100 yards so the winning distance could have easily been 10 or 12 lengths had he actually been ridden out. Has had a month's break since then. The Twiston-Davies horses are going really well at the moment and 7/1 is massive value for this horse given that it is not exposed at this level and has had no problem carrying big weights in handicaps in the past. Will go well on the ground and won at Market Rasen earlier in the year over this exact trip in a class 1 listed handicap chase. William Hill and VC have already priced this horse up at 11/2 and 9/2 respectively, and those prices look about right.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:40 Ascot Citrus Star 2pts EW - 25/1 (Blue Square) Looks way overpriced to me. Didn't run a bad race at all lto when 6/18 behind Irish Heartbeat. Was sent off the 6/1 favourite that day, travelled decently and put in a respectable challenge, but the main bunch were on the near side whereas Citrus went to the far side. Before this he's been an improving horse, lightly raced (8 runs) with three wins to his name. Has only tackled GS ground once and ran well to finish third, less than a length behind the winner Layla's Hero. Wall's stable are going well at the moment and his partnership with Baker is paying off with 9 wins in 31 runs (29% SR), showing a nice profit of just under 30 to the level stake.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 5:25 Ascot Atlantic Tiger 2pts EW - 12/1 (William Hill) Johnston won this race last year with Kimberley Downs and I'm confident he can do it again with the 3yo Atlantic Tiger. Only has the 7 runs to his name. Has finished first, second and third two times apiece. His worst effort to date was his run at Ascot lto, but he was never travelling well and I can forgive that. Hasn't tackled a soft surface as of yet (mostly been running on the AW) but being out of Tiger Hill he should handle the cut. This is his first crack at 2m and given his run over 1m6f behind Motrice (third in the Doncaster Cup over 18f) he should relish it. Was doing his best work at the business end when staying on to take second. The 12/1 on offer looks too big for the unexposed horse and a more realistic price has been applied elsewhere (17/2).

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:00 Ascot Bay Willow 4pt win - 6/1 (William Hill) Plenty to like about this Mark Johnston 3yo. Prior to his flop lto, he hadn't been outside the top 4 in 8 starts. Has won three races, importantly has a win at Ascot to his name in a field of 11 over today's trip. Made all and found extra when asked. Has run over 12f 5 times in his career, with form figures reading 14121 all on GF ground. His pedigree however suggests he'll be fine on soft ground. His flop lto was in a very competitive handicap at York's Ebor meeting. Was upped to 1m6f and was never able to get on terms. Horse needs to lead or be right up with the pace to show his best and he didn't get the run of things that day. This smaller field should allow him to dictate. Richard Hills partnered the horse earlier in the year and won a class 5 maiden by 6 lengths. Although entitled to do that given he is now rated 106, it's good to see he has had prior experience on the horse.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:45 Sedgefield Silver Steel 3pt win - 8/1 (bet365) Not been in the greatest form this year but conditions seem more favourable today and he is down to a winnable mark. Has run three times this year and finished well beaten 4ths on all occasions but I'm hopeful that this trip on good ground will help him find his stride. Although finishing second once to Turbo Shandy on soft ground his form with cut in the ground has been poor and again might not have suited the horse lto. Graham Lee takes the ride once more and has ridden the horse to victory twice in the past.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Only got about 20 mins on this laptop tonight, cracked the screen on mine yesterday and can't use it until repaired. Should be able to get back on in the morning but I'm going to put up my bets now incase the prices go. Will add reasoning tomorrow morning. 1.55 Newmarket Premio Loco 2pts EW - 9/1 (VC) 2:30 Newmarket Hooray 3pt win - 5/1 (PP) Margot Did 2pt win - 7/1 (Ladbrokes) 3:05 Newmarket Strong Suit 10pt win - 3/1 (PP)

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Premio Loco Price is due to weight and the fact that this horse hasn't yet faced soft ground. The price is absolutely worth risking whether or not the horse is able to handle it. Has been in cracking and consistent form on the turf this season winning 2/4 races, and finishing second and third in the other two. Was sent off unfancied when winning the Sunley Criterion stakes (group 3), beating Red Jazz half a length over 7f. Red Jazz has recently gone on to third in the QEII stakes behind Rip Van Winkle and Poet's Voice, looking the winner at one stage. Premio Loco then went to the Summer mile stakes (group 2) and won that with a late burst of speed, running on powerfully to take the race from Vertigineux, with the likes of Dream Eater and Ouqba in behind. Went to the Sussex stakes next to go against top milers in RVW and Canford Cliffs. Ran well to finish third behind the market leaders and almost a length ahead of Beethoven. Went back down to a more realistic level once again and finished second behind Balthazaar's Gift, finishing only half a length behind. I think the drop down to 7f wasn't completely ideal, though. Back to a mile here and that'll be no problem. George Baker rides Newmarket well and is showing a huge profit along with a 19% strike rate too, which is promising. Hoping for a big run. Hooray Think 5/1 is a big price for this horse proven at this level and in good form. Since front-running has managed to take two group races in good fashion. The first of those saw three of today's rivals in behind. Margot Did (who was arguably unlucky), Rimth and Maqaasid. The next race was on the AW Kempton surface and with previous experience it probably helped her, but she was a class apart that day winning easily by almost 4 lengths. The horse's form is arguably the best and at 5/1 has to be a bet. Margot Did Frustrating horse with a lot of talent and I'm going to give her one last chance here at a big price. Travels well and is definitely able to put it up to these horses should she stay out of trouble. There's not much more to add really. Contested in 4 group races this year and hasn't been out of the placings, nor been beaten by more than a length. Was a close second to Memory in Albany stakes (lost by a head) and has been close up in the three subsequent group races (beaten half a length, three quarters and a quarter lto). Perhaps she just isn't the most genuine filly, but time will tell. Strong Suit Think this price is massive. Richard Hughes got off the horse after the Coventry and told everyone to take 10/1 about him for the 2000 Guineas. He has been matched at just over 5/1 on Betfair. Ran a disappointing race in Ireland but he was run in a completely different style and there's every chance he wasn't over his coventry exertions. Has had a nice long break since then and will be in top shape for this. Dream Ahead is a very worthy favourite but one to take on at the prices for me. I've just seen he is price at 7/2 on Betfair and will have a further 5pt win. Massive price.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Sorry for short write-ups here but I haven't got much time on this laptop. All at Longchamp. 1:45 Wootton Bassett - 6pt win - 5/1 (William Hill) Moonlight Cloud 2pt win - 3/1 (William Hill) Has done everything asked of him so far in four starts, in small and big fields. Won nicely over 6.5f lto and the step-up to 7f looks suitable given the way he powerfully finishes. Moonlight Cloud is being backed as a saver as she has also looked impressive in two starts. 2:20 Dick Turpin 4pt win - 6/1 (Skybet) Goldikova 3pt win - 2/1 (PaddyPower) Big price for the smart Hannon colt. Handles all types of ground and the drop back to 7f isn't exactly a negative, beat Canford Cliffs over this trip on seasonal debut. Goldikova has questions to answer on the ground, as does Paco Boy and he was below par lto. Goldikova at 2/1 will be backed as a saver, as I have the race between these two. 3:05 Duncan 2.5pts EW - 33/1 (Bet365) Plumania 2pt win - 25/1 (Skybet) Would love Duncan to spring a surprise here and underline exactly what could have been with regards to Harbinger. Won his race in France lto beating some of today's rivals nicely and clearly handles the ground. Buick/Gosden combo too, would love to see him take this. Plumania is overpriced based on her form lto, half a length behind Midday and ahead of the well-regarded Sarafina. 4:35 Stacelita 10pt win - 2/1 (Skybet) Antara 3pt win - 9/2 (PaddyPower) Can't work out why she's such a big price. Has had the beating of the second fave twice now in two runnings (albeit by small margins). Definitely handles the soft ground and should be spot on for this. Cannot see the winner from outside the top two so saver will be backed.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Not the best day's racing but will have a couple of win bets and a double for some interest. 2:50 Southwell Sahara Kingdom 5pt win - evens (VC) Hacked up in a couple of maidens on the AW last year and is completely unexposed but might be too good at this level. This year Godolphin have been very good at getting horses ready after long breaks so I'm confident this one will be alright despite not racing for almost a year. They're in good form and it's nice to have Frankie on board. 4:50 Southwell Captain Dunne 5pt win - 6/4 (Skybet) Is the best horse in the field on all known form this year but isn't the most reliable. I'll give him a go seeing as he should probably be odds-on and could win this easily. Has won on the Southwell AW surface in the past too which is a plus. Will have a 2.5pt win double on the pair. 10/11 and 6/4 with Skybet.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:55 Tipperary Smoking Aces 5pt win - 7/2 (VC) Useful hurdler contesting in this beginner's chase and I think the price is decent. Was last seen in a novice chase at Ballinrobe 15 days ago when finishing third, quite some way behind the impressive winner. This was his first race in over 5 months so allowing for that he should be in good shape here. The current market leader hasn't been seen for some time. Warne has had a few chase starts to get off the mark but hasn't managed it yet. It does look to be between the top three.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:00 Towcester Michael Flips 10pt win - 2.30 (Betfair) Am shocked about this price to say the least. Rated 147 over hurdles which is miles clear of anything else in this race. Will he take to fences? Price makes up for that. Honestly thought he was more of a 1/2 shot in this field. This price is just too big to let go.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:10 Nott Enlightening 4pt win - 11/8 (Skybet) Richard Hughes pops back on board this fellow after Pat Dobbs took him close on two occasions to finish runner up. Was sent off 15/8f lto at this track and over this trip only going down by a quarter length to a decent surprise 40/1 winner. Hughes has already had a winner today and the Hannon yard aren't doing badly. Have him down as an evens shot so small value for him to bag his first race.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:20 Ludlow No Reception 1pt EW - 66/1 (PaddyPower) 1pt win 90.00 (Betfair) Too big for this horse. Only win in 19 runs was on good to yielding ground back in 2006 and since then the horse has been racing on heavy/soft ground in almost every race. When racing on good ground the horse hasn't been far behind. Ran with credit lto when sent off at 150/1, a staying on fourth (out of seven) only 7 lengths behind the winner. The horses ahead of him rated a lot higher on hurdle form too. 7lb claimer is on once againt too.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:00 Chepstow Westlin' Winds 2pts EW - 12/1 (VC) This price is surely too big. All horses in the race are making seasonal debuts so I'm not worried on that front. Has contested in four hurdle races winning two by good distances, finishing second behind the highly thought of Mille Chief and running disappointingly at Cheltenham when sent off 10/1 for the Triumph Hurdle. If you forgive one bad run at Cheltenham (track may well not have suited) then he's not a 12/1 shot here. Jake Greenhall is also taking off 7lbs.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:50 Chepstow William Hogarth 5pt win - 11/4 (Skybet) Ran to some respectable levels last season and will make this a tough test for the odds-on fav. Is a front-runner who will enjoy the bit of cut in the ground and Rhys Flint rides Chepstow will. Should put in a bold bid.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:45 York Descaro 10pt win - 5/2 (WH) Late one but only just noticed it was running, on my alerts. Think this is a massive price. SDS is on board and won very easily lto, and I don't think the rise is big enough to stop a repeat of that here. Not the strongest race and this horse is still improving.