BKI's Bets

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:35 Doncaster Greyfriarschorista1pt EW - 22/1 (PaddyPower) Think the outsider of the field is value here. On his day (Britannia Stakes) he is more than capable of mixing it with this company and his handicap mark of 100 looks to be decent. Johnston's also in good form at the moment. The trip is the only worry as it is a step up but he's only a 3yo and could be better for it. Is definitely not a 25/1 shot anyway.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:10 Doncaster Murbeh 3pt win - 7/1 (Ladbrokes) Alaskan Spirit 1pt win - 149/1 (Betfair) The unbeaten Wooten Basset lines up for this 2yo contest but I don't like his odds in this massive field. Murbeh is also unbeaten, winning professionally and stylishly lto, quickening up to lead and asserting comfortably. Hasn't set a foot wrong in two starts and is certain to come on for more improvement in these similar conditions. Alaskan Spirit is massive at the price on Betfair, and has to be taken. Was turned over at odds-on last time but it was a muddling three runner race, not playing to his strengths as he prefers to track the leaders. Think he would be a 25/1 shot had he not contested in that race. De Sousa is a good booking.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Further half point on Alaskan Spirit to win at 199/1. :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:45 Doncaster Roses For The Lady - 2pts EW - 9/1 (Bluesquare) Thought this price was value and the bookmakers seem to agree with me as the horse is low as 6/1 in some places, and generally 15/2. Oxx does well when sending his horses over and I'm expecting a big run from my selection. Her race lto is nothing to be ashamed of, finished behind two horses who have gone on to frank the form. Rajik won a listed race and Silverhand impressively won over hurdles at short odds. A lot of these are trying the 14f trip for the first time too, which is good for my selection.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:20 Doncaster Belle Royale 2pts EW - 16/1 (VC) As short as 12/1 elsewhere and I think her true price is at least half what I'm getting. Her form figures make her the obvious horse to look to with a string of 1s at the end, but she does without doubt hold strong claims here. The horse she beat lto is currently rated 89 and off levels she was over a length better, which means her rise in the handicap isn't too harsh although it may seem so. Her last three wins have been on GS ground but she has recorded a win on good ground. Been out of the frame twice in 11 starts, and one of those was in the Albany stakes at 200/1. Think this is a massive price for a 2yo improving for every run.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:55 Doncaster Blue Angel 2pts EW - 20/1 (Bet365) Was only a length behind Flora Trevelyan lto and that one is best priced 10/1 at the moment, with some firms going 8's. Seta was the winner that day and is rated 107, and this for me puts my selection bang in with a chance. Big price for a Hannon/Hughes runner. Blue Angel has been contesting in some pretty good races and has always been there or thereabouts, without being able to do the business. Ran a cracker over 7f at Goodwood behind Tropical Paradise when denied a clear run, only finishing 1 and a half lengths behind. Conditions suit and a lot of horses in this race are faily inconsistent.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 1:35 Doncaster New Planet 3pts win - 6/1 (Bet365 - bog) Backed this one as a saver lto and it duly delivered with Fallon on board. Moore has been booked today which is a significant positive. Zebedee will probably shorten even more but Hannon's horses aren't firing at the moment and he's had a tough season already. New Planet was an impressive maiden winner asserting nicely at the business end to score by 2 and a half lengths. Was stepped up to high class company in a listed race nto, and again found extra to see off Pabusar by a neck. Conditions are again ideal today and New Planet will have gained the necessary experience required to take this. Has had to battle to win which is essential in these races. The Quinn stable are also fairly consistent right now. Already 5/1 with another firm and I can see this going off at 4/1, 7/2 tomorrow if the Zebedee support eases out due to stable form.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:05 Doncaster Zuider Zee 2pts EW - 9/1 (Ladbrokes) Ran a good race lto behind Mount Athos at York and was conceding 5lbs to the winner. The winner now has to concede 6lbs so should find this tougher. My selection is lightly raced but has been racing consistently well, being out of the top 3 on two occasions, significantly in bigger fields. He's a hold-up horse so things do need to go his way, however I feel the price is worth risking here, especially factoring the scope for improvement with the experience. Buick and Gosden combo which is never a bad thing.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:40 Doncaster Opinion Poll 10pt win - 3/1 (Skybet) Samuel 3.5pt win - 9/2 (Skybet) Darley Sun 1pt win - 16/1 (Betfred) I will be very surprised if the winner doesn't come from one of these three so I'm having my biggest bet of the flat season on the one I believe will win, and a saver on the others. I was surprised at how well Opinion Poll handled the ground lto and he has proven that he doesn't need soft ground to show his best. I think the 3/1 odds on offer are very generous, wouldn't offer more than 2/1 myself. Samuel has only had the two runs since the set-back and will be hard to beat. I think these two will be fighting out the finish again. The Jarvis stable are in very good form also. I have backed Darley Sun as a small saver simply because Frankie is riding him and not Opinion Poll. Robinson has won on Opinion Poll in the past but if Frankie has chosen to ride Darley Sun I'd be slightly worried. Darley Sun still has lots left to give anyway, and 16/1 is good value.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:15 Doncaster White Moonstone 3pt win - 5/6 (Bet365 - bog) Has won 2/2 and has beaten horses with similar profiles of today's rivals and I honestly think the current odds are value. Is a small field so the chances of finding trouble in running are low and two of the rivals she faces she saw off lto when winning nicely at Newmarket. Seems to go on different types of ground so any change in the going won't be a problem. White Moonstone (5/6 B365) and Frankel (8/11 B365). 10pt double. Wouldn't normally advise doing doubles but this one looks value to me. Frankel is going up against the Godolphin horse Farhh, but Frankel is very highly regarded and scored impressively on debut in conditions that weren't ideal. Don't see him losing this race tomorrow and the Cecil 2yos this year are showing profit.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:55 Doncaster Pendragon 4pt win - 6/1 (Bet365 - bog) This horse is very consistent on turf, and this year in 5 races has been out of the frame once, on his first start, when fourth and only 2 and a half lengths behind the winner. He has experience running well in big fields and Swift, who has won on him this season, takes a massive 5lbs off his back, effectively allowing him to run off a mark of 80, which given what he has achieved looks tiny. If he can run to the same form he showed lto, he'll be bang in contention here. Handles all conditions too which is a bonus, and Ellison's horses are going well.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

3:15 Doncaster White Moonstone 3pt win - 5/6 (Bet365 - bog) Has won 2/2 and has beaten horses with similar profiles of today's rivals and I honestly think the current odds are value. Is a small field so the chances of finding trouble in running are low and two of the rivals she faces she saw off lto when winning nicely at Newmarket. Seems to go on different types of ground so any change in the going won't be a problem. White Moonstone (5/6 B365) and Frankel (8/11 B365). 10pt double. Wouldn't normally advise doing doubles but this one looks value to me. Frankel is going up against the Godolphin horse Farhh, but Frankel is very highly regarded and scored impressively on debut in conditions that weren't ideal. Don't see him losing this race tomorrow and the Cecil 2yos this year are showing profit.

4pt saver on Faarh after that performance from White Moonstone. 9/4 with Lads.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:50 Doncaster Citrus Star 4pt win - 5/1 (Skybet) Looks a promising 3yo and is entitled to be shorter on what he has achieved so far. On a few formlines he has quite a lot of this field beaten. Wall's stable are in tidy form with most horses running well albeit not winning. Baker who rode this horse to victory lto also renews the ride. Has only had 7 runs so far, winning three and finishing in the top three on three other occasions. Although looking at form 6 and a half furlongs may not seem like the ideal trip, he has been beaten by good horses when contesting over 6f. Is possibly well treated here also, only being raised 3lbs for his latest win, beating Rakaan by a neck over 7f. Is only 3 so open to improvement and will take the beating here.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:15 Chester Excellerator 2pts EW - 16/1 (VC) Really think this one holds a big chance here. Has only raced on slower ground twice in his short career at Southwell when winning and finishing a nose second to Rowe Park. Has been running on good/firm ground since and it's probably been too quick for the horse. Matthew Davies the jockey has had two rides at Chester this year and has won both so clearly knows the course pretty well. Think in these softer conditions the horse has been way overpriced and is extremely good value in this 8 runner affair.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:45 Chester Rigidity 4pt win - 5/2 (VC) Lightly raced sort with plenty of promise. On pedigree this horse should enjoy cut in the ground and the handicap mark if forigiving his last run looks very lenient. His last run was in a much better event than this and was still a creditable effort. He was well backed so an effort was expected but not everything went his way. Comes back to this small field carrying top weight but is comparitavely unexposed and has a great chance to take this. The lay off doesn't worry me as the horse has gone well fresh in the past.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 5:30 Wolves Diamond Blade 2pts EW - 8/1 (WH) Diamond Blade is the one for me at these juicy odds. Has only had two runs this year to sharpen him up but has put in some great runs despite not winning which does suggest he'll go well fresh today. Hasn't been massively fancied either. Put a string of wins together on Southwell's all weather track last year and now tackles Wolves for the first time, but given his turf form on good ground he should go close. I think the favourite is poor value and the rise in weights will see it struggle. Easterby's horses are going well too.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 6:00 Wolves Mayfair Princess 2pts EW - 16/1 (Bet365 - bog) Interesting runner here. An unfancied maiden winner at 40/1, was then stepped straight up to top class company finishing down the field to Electric Waves. Back down to a much more realistic level now and such an unknown quantity that was given the chance at the highest level is not a 16/1 shot back down? Is as short as 7/1 with Ladbrokes which is far more realistic. Fahy is also taking off 5lbs.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:55 Doncaster Rainfall 4pt win - 13/2 (Skybet) Think this is a very big price. Lightly raced filly with only 5 runs to her name. Two wins, both over today's trip, a third, a second and a fifth. She held on gamely at Royal Ascot to fend off Red Jazz, with Shakespearean further down the field who she reopposes here today. Was then third to the highly regarded Music Show, with the likes of Lilly Langtry, Special Duty and Strawberrydaiquiri in behind. Then went over to France to take on Goldikova, and finished 5th over a mile on GS ground. She looks to prefer good ground and the step back to 7f should suit perfectly. Really can't understand why this price is so big. Fallon in the plate too. Expecting a very big run.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 5:00 Doncaster Tamaathul 3pt win - 7/1 (Bluesquare) Is only a 3yo but is progressing and is a big price. Has good form in behind the likes of Wigmore Hall, Azmeel and Dancing David. Has only 5 runs to date with one win, which came at today's course. Has been running on variable grounds but seems to handle good ground better, so conditions do look favourable. Gets the 3yo weight allowance which could be cruical. A lot of this field are also quite exposed and I wouldn't personally have him any bigger than 4/1. Think 7 is huge.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:10 Curragh Zoffany 10pt win - 7/4 (Bet365 - bog) Am shocked that this one is as big. Only defeat came at Royal Ascot, and he wasn't even disgraced then. Was hugely impressive lto when cutting down Glor Na Mara and Strong Suit at the finish. Pathfork is a danger but hasn't beaten a massive amount. Think the distance in relation to GNM is irrelevant. Simply cannot oppose Zoffany in Ireland and I honestly thought it more of a 5/6 shot.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:35 Chester Golden Sword 2pts EW - 8/1 (Skybet) Have backed him on his last few runs which were disappointing but back to this trip on GS ground could bring out a totally different horse. Interesting to see him back at Chester too, where he won over this trip before going to the Derby and finishing very close up to the winner. Was second in the Irish Derby but since then hasn't really been the same horse, but has not had ideal conditions. Hopefully today he'll put his best foot forward.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Lastly going to have a little 3pt treble on a few short priced favs that I like. Rewilding 6/5 Saamidd 5/6 Zoffany 6/4 with Skybet. Rewiling was just so impressive in the GV and hadn't set a foot wrong until the Derby when not handling the track. Stayed on very well to take third. Hacked up in the GV and wasn't fully extended. Still very lightly raced and a lot is expected. Saamidd was mightily impressive on debut, I said at the time that it reminded me of Canfords debut, shaken up and coming readily clear without extending the horse. Already written about Zoffany, think it should be odds on.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:20 Doncaster Theology 1pt EW - 40/1 (William Hill 1/3) Going to have a little EW bet on one of the St Leger longshots. Thrived when stepped up to 2 miles at Ascot in the Queen's Vase and tries out this trip for the first time and may well thrive again. Stayed on lto when down the field over 1m4f. Hanagan takes the ride here and he's riding superbly at the moment, and Noseda is in decent form. Conditions will suit and it will be interesting to see how he fares.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:25 Doncaster Borug 3.5pt win - 8/1 (Skybet) A Godolphin 2yo with only 2 runs to date. Won his maiden well, making all and finishing strongly to fend off the field. Was disappointing next time out but was never travelling on the soft ground and trailed in last, but not disgraced, 10 lengths behind the impressive Hannon winner. Would not be an 8/1 shot in these conditions had he not contested in that race, would be 4/1 or less. Will take the chance on better ground with the stable in good form.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 5:05 Listowel The Real Article 10pt win - 2/1 (Betfair) Just took the 2/1 at this very second. Bookmakers top price is 11/8 right now. Think 2/1 is a cracking price for this horse. Has run in three bumpers to date and is yet to be fully extended. Has won by over 20l combined. This horse has reportedly schooled well over hurdles and is set to be aimed at Cheltenham in March. Is already 25/1 for the Supreme which I imagine will take a hefty cut should be win this well. It's a very modest event and if he is to live up to expectations this shouldn't be a hard race to win.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets TRA did it quite nicely and should come on more for that. 8:10 Kempton Roayh 4pt win - 2/1 (VC) Think this represents good value. Roayh has been mixing it up with top class opposition and the two maiden winners will need to be good to beat him. It's a three runner race and I like Frankie in smaller fields so that's a massive plus for me. All horses are new to the AW track so the same risk applies for all. Godolphin are going as well as ever and if Roayh can run to his usual form he'll hold every chance here.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Flat Bets: 62 Staked: 204 P/L: -60.41 Yield: -29.61% Jumps Bets: 21 Staked: 60.5 P/L: +18.3 Yield: +30.24%

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:20 Ayr Caldercruix 3.5pt win - 9/1 (Bet365 - bog) Really like the look of this one at a decent price. Is the only confirmed front runner in the field so could gain a rather soft lead and have things his own way. Is a lightly raced 3yo with 8 starts to his name. Has won two of those, which were his first attempts in handicap company. Won off an initial mark of 71, and then 79. Followed that up with a good second behind the smart Monterosso. Finished down the field in two competitive big field handicaps but that doesn't put me off at all. His draws in those races weren't great and in those big fields a good draw is usually crucial. His small field (8 or less) form reads 112 and Spencer has been in the saddle for all three of those. He has been lowered to a handicap mark of 90 after the last two efforts and he should fare well off that. He did pull 2 lengths clear of the rest of the field when behind Monterosso. Spencer has an 18% strike-rate for this trainer this year, with 6 wins from 34 which isn't too bad. The stable aren't exactly firing but they are running consistently enough. In this field I don't think the horse should be bigger than 5/1 so it'll be interesting to see if there's any support tomorrow.

[Aidymac]

Re: BKI's Bets Well done with your 2 winners tonight mate. Keep up the good work.. :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Thanks pal. :ok 3:50 Ayr Arabian Spirit 2pt win - 5/1 (PaddyPower) Harriet's Girl 1pt EW - 14/1 (PaddyPower) Like the look of the favourite here. Is a 5yo with 26 runs to date. Has won only three of those, and finished in the top three a further nine times. Is running off a mark of 81 here with Hanagan on board. Is rated marginally better on the AW (82) and has managed to record a win off a mark of 87 at Kempton over this trip. Does handle any ground, his first win back in 2008 was on soft ground at Chepstow over 7f. Fahey does particularly well at Ayr with an 18% strike-rate over the last 5 seasons, with a very healthy profit of 42.85 to the level stake. His return to form was inevitable with the long slide down the handicap, but he still looks potentially dangerous on 81 over his preferred trip. Harriet's Girl is another that takes the eye here. Has only recorded three wins in 22 starts but is definitely able to go in off her current mark of 75. Her form this year reads 212873, all over today's trip. The runs that were out of the frame weren't bad either. Although pedigree doesn't exactly suggest the soft ground will help, she is a half-sister to Padlocked who managed to win in GS conditions. Her only effort in these conditions to date was over 6f as a 2yo off a mark of 79, and is probably not a great indication as to how she'll fare. Andrew Elliott gets back on board, he has ridden her to every victory to date.