BKI's Bets

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 7:40 Worcester Good Old Days 1pt win - 9/2 (VC) Has shown good form this season with a win and a third place finish, only 2 lengths behind the winner. The top rated horses in this race are going to struggle carrying top weight here, and there are a few questionable jumpers in the line-up. Conditions should be absolutely fine for my selection, and Sean Quinlan retains the ride, after two good performances this year.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Christ, what a horrible drift. Going to add 0.5pts EW at 8/1 with the same firm. Think this price is way too big.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Ran a stinker. Really should leave alone the lower class jumps. Actually think I need to cut down on the bets all together, unless I think I'm getting massive value. We'll see. -2 Current Figures: Bets: 46 Staked: 64 P/L: +20.69 Yield: +32.32%

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 1:45 York Life and Soul 1pt EW - 6/1 (Boylesports) Anhar 0.5pts EW - 11/1 (William Hill) Think these two are decent prices today. Life And Soul is lightly raced and has showed plently of promise so far this season, only disappointing when not being able to get a clear run, ruining his chances all together. Has run consistently well in other handicaps and looks sure to keep improving on his current mark, which might be a lenient 88. Conditions should be no problem and he'll have a good pace to come from. Trainer and jockey are both in cracking form too so he should be spot on. Also like Anhar in this race. Probably didn't stay lto, was never able to get on terms. Back down to suitable trip today and again the trainer is in great form. Horse has a lovely pedigree so we can expect further improvement, and may be on a lenient mark here.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:15 York Samuel 1pt EW - 7/1 (William Hill) Akmal 0.25pt EW - 8/1 (William Hill) Samuel is an interesting horse. Looked like a good stayer in the making before problems obviously occured and had a 2 year absence from the track. Returned last month to run a cracker in fourth behind King of Wands, Illustrious Blue and Opinion Poll, who are all in opposition today. He was only 3 lengths off that day, on his first run back for two years. Travelled really well but didn't quite get home, which might have been expected. Having that run under his belt should have helped, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him right up there today. Trainer is in cracking form too. Akmal didn't have it all his own way in the Ascot Gold Cup, and ended up being barged out of it by the eventual winner. Before that, he ran a cracking race from the front to see off some good stayers including Illustrious Blue. Might not be the most consistent but if he can dictate the race today he'll have a great chance.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Sorry, that's 0.5pts EW on Akmal. :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

4:45 Newton Abbot Wild Power 0.5pt win @ 39/1 - 1pt place @ 7/1 (Betfair) Wasn't interested in this old fella earlier at the 16/1 available, but these prices on Betfair are value to me. Hasn't won a race in four years, but has put in many creditable efforts, and is now racing off his lowest ever handicap mark. Has course form and has done all it's winning over this distance or thereabouts, and is worth a nibble at the price.

Is 18/1 today and I'm going to back him again. Thought he ran a great race before unseating his rider and was still right there in contention when it happened. Is still on lowest handicap mark ever and sneaks into this race carrying bottom weight. 0.5pts EW (VC).

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:50 York Casual Glimpse 2pt win - 4/1 (VC) Won well last time out going away, beating some useful prospects in the process. We've all seen how good Hannon's 2yos have been this year and this price looks slightly generous for another consistent 2yo, who has already won similar contests nicely. Didn't run particularly well at Epsom, but I always forgive a horse that doesn't run well there. A few of these in the line-up are becoming exposed, but I still think this one is on the up.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Bet is now 11/2 with VC BOG, and will add a further 0.5pt win at the same price. :ok Eventually went off 6/1.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:25 York Martyr 1.5pts EW - 7/1 (Skybet) Martyr has relished the step-up in trip this term and stays this trip and more very well. His first two runs this year can be discounted, as one was on the AW (needed the run, also), and the other was on soft ground which he has never won on, or even gone close on in two attempts. Today's conditions should suit perfectly. His win last time out over this trip was very impressive, cruising along on the bridle to readily burst clear of the field, which isn't too disimilar to what he'll face today. He does carry a 4lb penalty but the mark could still be lenient given how he has taken the step-up.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Last bet of the day for me. 4:05 York Face The Problem 4pt win - 7/4 (BlueSquare) New Planet 0.5pt win - 10/1 (William Hill) Cadeaux Pearl 0.5pt win - 9/1 (VC) Another short priced favourite but again, think it holds the best claims in this race nad make him more of a 5/4 shot. Has improved with every run this year and made short work of an average field last time out, stamping his authority with a 6l win. The opposition do not appear to be anything special, with a few becoming exposed. If thise horse can improve further then this race shouldn't take the world of winning. Will have two savers on the horses I think could improve most, which are Cadeaux Pearl, runner up in a group 3 last time out behind Zebedee, and New Planet, who won well first time out, with the form being franked since.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Life and Soul + 0.5 Anhar -1 Samuel +0.4 Akmal -1 Casual Glimpse -2.5 Martyr -3 Face The Problem -4 New Planet +5 Cadeaux Pearl -0.5 -6.1 Not a great day so far but still one bet left to run on Wild Power in the 7:40. Out to 22/1 also with VC BOG.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets One for Folkstone that catches the eye. 6:00 Folkstone Cloud's End 3pt win - 3/1 (VC) I have this race between Cloud's End and Love Match but Charlton isn't in good form at all as of late whereas Haggas is. Both of them are joint top rated on 80 in this race but I can still see improvement to come from Cloud's End over this trip. Last time out she raced over a mile and probably didn't quite get home, with the soft ground making it more of a stamina test. Jones has ridden this horse 3 times, twice to victory and once to finish third on her first start, only 3/4 of a length behind the winner. Hopefully 80 will prove to be quite a lenient mark back at 7f on good to firm ground.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Life and Soul + 0.5 Pulled really hard early on and did well to finish third. Still very progressive. Anhar -1 Has a habbit of missing the break and that did her no favours again today. Travelled up nicely on the outside but weakened. Still bound to improve. Samuel +0.4 Really liked his run today and he'll definitely come on further with it being his second run for two years. Probably will go off a lot shorter though. Akmal -1 Ran a decent race, just ran out of steam. Probably isn't suited to a very long home straight. Casual Glimpse -2.5 Off the bridle early, very disappointing. Martyr -3 Travelled well enough, just didn't have the finishing kick it seems. Will need to watch again though. Face The Problem -4 Got this one embarrasingly wrong. Really should stay away from high staking in races with little form to go on. New Planet +5 Improved as expected and won nicely with a very strong finish. Will probably start very short next time though. Cadeaux Pearl -0.5 Very disappointing finishing last. Hannon's 2yo's this week haven't been great. Cloud's End -3 Every chance and had no sort of kick at all at the business end. Wild Power -1 Didn't run a great race today but am sure that in a 0-90 handicap over fences he'll go in this year at big odds. -10.1 Current Figures: Bets: 58 Staked: 84.5 P/L: +10.59 Yield: +12.53% Still in decent profit overall but am definitely having too many bets. Going to go back to only looking at (unless a horse comes up on my alerts) races that I know I'm better at reading.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:25 York My 100% book, Sariska 6/4, Midday 100/30, Snow Fairy 6/1, 12/1 Hibayebb, 16/1 Meeznah, 16/1 Flying Cloud, 50/1 Eleanora Duse, 66/1 Barshiba. Sariska 5pt win - 9/4 (Ladbrokes) Hibayebb 1pt EW - 16/1 (Skybet) Flying Cloud 0.5pts EW - 40/1 (Bluesquare) Think these three are the value picks of the race. Think Sariska is massive at 9/4. Has had the beating of Midday every time they've met, most recently on both their seasonal debuts this year. Midday coming off the bridle early, but picked up again in the closing stages to take second. Sariska since then has finished close up to Fame and Glory. Came alongside and appeared to be travelling better than the winner, but couldn't kick past the Derby runner up who found more. She has the best form on offer in this race. Midday won nicely last time out, idling and the pulling out more when it mattered. Hard to weigh up what more she has to offer. Snow Fairy is a duel Oaks winner, but I genuinely think it's a very poor division this year. Hardly any of the English Oaks form has been franked, and her win in the Irish Oaks, although visually impressive, does not look solid. Runner up was the winner of a poor maiden from which two horses have gone on to win, the best of them rated 84. This makes it difficult to weigh up just how good Snow Fairy is. She'll be going up against the older horses who have been running very well this year. She'll have to be something special to topple them in my opinion. Hibayebb is only going to run if the ground is suitable, but at 16/1 on good ground she is a must bet for me. Godolphin were not in form when she disappointed badly in the Irish Oaks, and we all know that's not her true running. Disappointed on soft last time out too, which is why she's now ground dependant. Her win in the Ribblesdale stakes (group 2) was impressive, drawing 3 and a half lengths clear of the field, with some useful fillies in behind. Godolphin have now hit form and the price looks too big. Frankie is also riding very well, and chooses to partner her over Flying Cloud. Flying Cloud also looks way too big at the 40's on offer. Finished only 4 lengths behind Sariska on seasonal debut, again, when Godolphin were not firing. Finished a close-up second in the Pretty Polly stakes (group 1) next time out, with the first three pulling 6 lengths clear of the warm favourite, Remember When. Was sent off favourite next time out in a group 3 over 1m6f, which obviously stretched her stamina as she didn't quite get home, finishing disappointing 5th. Back to a reasonable trip (won as a 3yo in a group 2 at 1m4f) and with Godolphin in form, this price looks massive.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:15 York Margot Did 2pts EW - 11/4 (Paddy Power) Rate this horse a 2/1 shot so think I am getting great value here. Cannot see it finishing outside the top two. Is a very strong traveller who has bumped into a couple too good at the top level, but today's smaller field may well play into her hands. Finished only a head behind the current 1000 Guineas favourite Memory in the Albany stakes, and then went onto finish half a length behind Soraaya in the Princess Margaret stakes. Soraaya finished only half a length behind Memory on her previous start, which suggests that she is running to a consistently high level. Maqaasid is currently a hot 5/4 favourite, with two wins to her name, but this is a slight step-up in trip which we haven't seen her at, and she was made to work hard for victory last time out. Can't be a backer at 5/4.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:25 Stratford Silver Steel 3pt win - 7/1 (PaddyPower) Think this one is a great price. Has only had one run this year so was entitled to need it. Ran some cracking races last year, and this level will suit him best. Goes on all types of ground and this distance is no problem. Graham Lee has ridden him to victory twice in three wins, and I still think this horse has a lot to offer at this handicap mark. Doesn't look the most difficult of races.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 5:00 Stratford Adjami 2pts EW - 7/1 (PaddyPower) Think this horse looks very well handicapped now. Has only won over hurdles twice, but off much higher marks. Was well out of league with winners in the last race and finished well beaten, but before that, was going very well when fell three from home. Also put in a decent performance when third at Market Rasen, beaten by two horse you'd expect to be up there. This race looks a lot tighter, and Skelton, who is in good form, takes the ride.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Horrible day. Really think with a clear run Margot Did would have won, but that's the way it goes. Sariska refused to race. The Godolphin horses didn't run to form. The other two bets were just awful. -15.9 Current Figures: Bets: 64 Staked: 103.5 P/L: -5.31 Yield: -5.13% I've decided I'm only going to use this thread for my flat bets. I'll keep all current jump ones in the record, but from now on flat only. I'll open a jumps thread when the jumps season is nearer with the proper jumps racing. Not doing well on the lower class handicaps at all.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 6:45 Epsom Ostentation 2pt win - 6/1 (Skybet) Think this horse has a great chance today off a handicap mark of 70. Has been in good form all year finishing close up on all occasions, with reasonable excuses for when he hasn't. As the report says, he was shuffled well back on his first start at Epsom which ultimately cost him all chances of winning. Was again hampered on latest outing at Sandown. Has been turned out pretty quickly but is still on a handicap mark well capable of winning on. Munro has had a cracking past couple of days and takes the ride.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 7:20 Epsom Full Victory 2pts EW - 11/1 (Betfred) Think this price is huge. Is on lowest ever handicap mark and was putting in some fine performances in similar conditions earlier this year off a higher mark, in contests exactly like this. Probably didn't get hom last time out over 10 furlongs, this return to 8 should suit perfectly. Munro is in the saddle for this one also and again, I think that's a good thing.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Not having a good day at all. Will probably only concentrate on the York meeting tomorrow and leave it at that. 7:50 Epsom Dutiful 2.5pts EW - 5/1 (Bluesquare) Max bet here, but I rate Dutiful a 5/2 chance, so must take advantage of the good value. Has been running consistently well this term and stays a mile, which may definitely come into play as almost every horse in the race seems better over 6f or shorter. Channon's horses are in good nick and it's Munro in the saddle again. Don't mean to be picking him out tonight but he keeps arriving on the horses I find value! Has still definitely got improvement to come here, and I'm really confident he'll make the frame.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Awful stuff. :eyes Will only be looking at York tomorrow. -11 Current Figures: Bets: 67 Staked: 114.5 P/L: -16.31 Yield: -14.24%

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 1:45 York Baltimore Clipper 1pt EW - 22/1 (Skybet) Baltimore Clipper comes into this contest on the back of some very consistent form, albeit in lower class, and is bottom weight in this competitive handicap, carrying only 7-13. Every run so far has suggested that a step-up in trip will very much suit, and there is stamina in the pedigree, being a half brother to the useful hurdler Intersky Falcon. Both jockey and trainer are in hot form right now, and if this horse continues to improve it should hold every chance today. 2:15 York Rainbow Peak 5pts EW - 7/4 (Ladbrokes) Might seem silly backing EW on this one but for all money I cannot see this being outside the places unless something horribly goes amiss, so I would rather recoup some money should he finish second or third. This horse has gone from strength to strength winning 4/5 races, the only loss on seasonal debut, going down by a head. Came on for that run by strongly winning a class one handicap going away. More improvement is expected and he holds an entry for the Champion Stakes (group 1) in October. Will go on any surface and trainer is in smashing form. Should be able to live up to expectations. 3:25 York Equiano 4pt win - 7/2 (Skybet) Spin Cycle 0.5pts EW - 40/1 (Skybet) This drop down to a sharp 5f is more likely to suit Equiano than it is SSB. SSB took a while to reach top gear last time out and ran down my selection late on. Equiano's best wins this year have been over the minimum, and although the draw is poor, I think the price is worth chancing on who I believe to be the best 5f horse in the race. The first two sprints of the day yesterday were won from the front, so if he can grab a cheeky lead he could well prove hard to peg back. Spin Cycle is an old favourite of mine who owes me nothing. Has run some blinders this year in top clas sprints and looks way to big at the 40/1 on offer.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets I know I said I was only going to concentrate on York but this one came up on my alerts.

7:10 Windsor Rule Breaker 0.5pt EW - 11/1 (Skybet) Chica Whopa 0.25pt EW - 16/1 (VC) Each-way value to be had in this race, with what is in my opinion, an awful odds on shot. Rule Breaker is another lightly raced horse. Was probably given a handicap mark a little out of his league and has naturally come down from the original 88 to now sit on 81. This contest is a lot easier than the handicaps he has participated in lately, so a big run could well be on the cards. The ground and trip are fine, and Dettori is a notable booking. Chica Whopa is also very lightly raced, and like Rule Breaker, was slightly out of his league last time out. The step up to a mile looks sure to suit on breeding and 16/1 for a Hannon horse with Hughes on board looks great considering the potential for improvement.

3:50 Sandown Rule Breaker 1pt EW - 7/1 (william hill) Will be backing this one again. Still sitting there on a handicap mark of 81, which looks very lenient, only beaten 2 lengths by Lost in the Moment (didn't win easily) who is now rated 89. More improvement to be had and the price looks fair.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Another from the alerts. 8:20 Killarney Endless Intrigue 10pt win - 5/4 (William Hill) Most firms go odds-on about this one and rightly so. This horse was second to Couisin Vinny in the Punchestown festival bumper, but was then kept off the track for two years for an unkown reason. Came back to finish fifth in a competitive bumper, only finishing 5 lengths behind the winner. Then finished a quarter length second when headed late on in a Curragh bumper. Next time out was over 1m4f at Galway, bursting clear to win by a cosy 8 lengths. The horse has obviously retained the ability and now that The Real Article has been withdrawn 5/4 looks a massive price. Ladbrokes go 4/7.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Got that wrong. Racing Post haven't updated their prices and just been to William Hill's site and they don't have any prices up. Will take 10/11 with Bet365 instead. :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Baltimore Clipper is a non-runner, so will go with Bowdler's Magic instead. 1pt EW at 18/1 with William Hill. Seen at his best over this trip this year when winning by 7 lengths in a class 3 handicap at Sandown. Since then has been campaigned at 1m4, and been outpaced both times. Back to a suitable trip here and if Fallon (who rode him to victory this year) can break quickly and grab a handy spot, might be able to nick this from the front. He is riding very well.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Thought Rio De La Plata's last run was too bad to be true, so discounted him at my peril... 2:50 York Skysurfers 2.5pts EW - 5/1 (Skybet) After that run this horse appeals to me at a decent price. Won first two starts very easily, including a beating of Eagle Mountain giving him weight. This drop down to 7f looks ideal in these conditions. Horse goes very well fresh, so it might be best to back him now rather than when he has a run in him. Frankie riding well and stable are in form.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Another 1pt EW at 6/1 with the same firm. :ok