BKI's Bets

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 8:20 Wolves Seek the Fair Land - 1pt EW - 16/1 (Skybet) This one looks way overpriced. Two runs at Southwell and Goodwood can be forgiven because all of his wins have been on the faster AW tracks in Lingfield and Kempton. Has won twice at Lingfield over this trip and most recent win was off a mark of 86. On 89 today but has put in two solid efforts finishing close up thirds off 88 and 89. Back on a surface he clearly prefers after two runs to sharpen him up should see him go close here. Only worry is stable form but that is factored into the price.

[StuSimmy]

Re: BKI's Bets

Wish i hadn't followed :(

Very harsh comment to make in my opinion, no need for that at all, especially when he iasn't telling people to follow him, its up to the individual whether they do or not. Saying that well done with the 9/1 winner today mate :clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Cheers mate. :ok Thrill -3 Margot Did -5 Soviet Secret +10.8 The Wee Chief -3 Romantic Queen -2 Desert Strike -2 Fifth Dimension -3.5 Seek the Fair Land -2 -10.3 Flat Bets: 23 Staked: 48 P/L: -21.4 Yield: -44.58% Not a great day but things will turn around when a few second places go my way. No decent jump racing tomorrow which is a shame but I will keep plugging away on the flat.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:10 Musselburgh Rasaman - 2pts EW - Bet365 bog Been studying this race for a while and I keep coming back to this one. This horse has been very consistent over the years always running to marks in the 80s but seems to have significantly stepped up on that recently. Gary Bartley seems to bring the best out of this horse. Has been in the saddle for his last three wins, all at this course and over 5f. Hasn't been disgraced either when down the field against the likes of Captain Dunne and Astrophysical Jet. The way he won lto was impressive, quickening up well to win going away. He has beaten alot of the horses he faces here in his last couple of wins but now faces the burden of top weight. Bartley takes off a useful 3lbs. I've decided to go EW because of his running style, he'll be running late and hard and if he doesn't quite get there but makes the frame I'll at least get a return. Hasn't yet been out the frame under Bartley at Musselburgh so I'm confident.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets That's 9/2 taken btw. :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:50 Lingfield Lunar Victory - 1.5pt EW - 12/1 (Bet365 - bog) Think this is a massive price. Last two starts he has pulled 8 lengths clear of both fields, although once beaten but that is no disgrace with the horse rated 86. The Gosden yard are still in very good form and I'm surprised to see a price this big for a horse so unexposed and progressive. All horses in this race seem to hold strong claims and all have questions to answer but 12s is too big to ignore here.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:10 Musselburgh Smarty Socks 3pt win - 11/4 (VC) The favourite here clearly holds a massive chance given the way he routed the field on debut, but the pace was very slow that day so the form might be deceptive. This promises to be a tougher challenge and I'm going to side with the battle hardened Smarty Socks who lto ran a cracker in a very competitive handicap behind Osteopathic Remedy. Runs off the same mark today for only a 3l defeat. The O'Meara stable are going well and De Sousa, who has won 4 times on this horse, takes the ride again.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:40 Musselburgh Avonrose 2pts win - 8/1 (Skybet) Think this one is well handicapped here. Has 17 runs to her name with 2 wins and a further 6 places. Original handicap mark was 88 but struggled on that, and her sole handicap win was off of 70, and she won it well making all. Since then has put in two solid performances off 76 and 77 (which she races off today) and looks like she has more to offer on this mark. Johnston's stable are going well and Fairley takes the ride once more.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets One for the jumps, 6:35 Kilbeggan Carutomark 2pts EW - 10/1 (VC) This price looks very good. This horse is only a 6yo and has had three chase starts to date, winning one, finishing second and being brought down in another. The second place finish was to King High, a horse that is now rated 122 over fences and has won off a mark of 117. Carutomark himself was 4l clear of the rest that day. His winning chase start was over this trip at Wexford so the distance isn't a problem. The runner up in that race has been consistent since, now rated 122 over fences. The top three that day pulled a distance clear of the remainder. Geraghty is a very good booking and this horse looks to be on a very lenient chasing mark given what those around him have done.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 7:05 Kilbeggan Hot Oscar 2pt win - 3/1 (VC) The fav obviously holds strong claims but I think Hot Oscar is a tiny bit overpriced at 3/1 here. Has had three chase starts so far, placing in two and finishing well beaten in another. I've no idea why he ran so badly but he clearly but that behind him by finishing third to Lady Hillingdon nto and she is rated 134 over fences. Is again only a 6yo so open to improvement in this sphere. This looks a very weak beginners chase and the favourite has questions to answer for me.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 5:05 Kilbeggan Clu Agus Cail 1pt EW - 14/1 (bet365 bog) Think this lightly raced sort is too big here. Has never been massively far away from the leaders over hurdles to date, and has put in some very good efforts behind much better hurdlers than she'll face today. Some of the opposition today look to be at the ceiling of their ability over hurdles whereas this is progressing. Heskin takes off a very useful 5lbs and gives my selection a feather weight to carry here. Should be in the mix.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 8:45 Kempton Babilu 1.5pt EW - 9/1 (Bet365 - bog) Think Babilu holds a massive chance in this. Her best form on the AW was over this same distance at Kempton when 2nd to Coda Agency. On her only other 2m flat start to date she won at Chepstow on soft ground but she appears to go on any. Kieren Fox takes off 5lbs and gives Babilu a tiny weight in this poor event and if reproducing the last bit of Kempton form she'll go very close.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 9:15 Kempton Togiak 2pts EW - 12/1 (VC) This horse has a Kempton AW win to his name as well as some cracking runs in behind good horses such as Bullet Train and Hot Prospect. That run was over today's distance too. Lost his way a bit against much better oppsition but come back to run well behind Mirror Lake lto. Is only a 3yo so might still be progressing and is running over a trip that suits on a surface that also suits. Think the price is way too big. Richard Hughes is booked too which inspires confidence.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:35 Haydock Kingsgate Native 1.5pt EW - 10/1 (VC) Think this horse has valid excuses for his runs of late, and even in defeat hasn't been far behind the winners. Beat Equiano and Boredlescott nicely on seasonal debut, quickening smartly to lead in the last 100 yards. Was favourite nto against a similar field but couldn't find a way through, had to be switched but by then it was all over. Then, from a bad draw, managed to finish less than 2 lengths behind SSB with Equiano in second. Both those horses had good draws. He was hampered and switched there so did remarkably well to finish close up. Bad draw again lto, finished down the field and behind the likes of Spin Cyle which we know he completely has the beating of. Was a strange race and probably not one to take so seriously. Doesn't have a bad draw and Moore is up in the saddle.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:00 Haydock Dancing David 1pt EW - 16/1 (VC) I think he's overpriced over a mile on good ground. Chased home Elusive Pimpernell on seasonal debut and was then second to Azmeel nto over 10f. Ran a perfectly respectable 9th (8l behind) in the French Derby behind Lope De Vega, but was disappointing in the Voltigeur when well beaten. I'm not sure if he sees out the 12f fully, and over a mile he is unexposed and has ran some good races behind useful animals. Isn't a 16/1 shot.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2.15 Kempton The Paddyman 4pt win - 11/4 (PaddyPower) Really think this is a good price. Ran a cracker stepped up to high class company lto when second to Libranno, that was followed on from a hugely impressive maiden win, not having to come off the bridle winning by 8 lengths. Godolphin horse is a bit too short for me and Hooray is inconsistent and not worth following at 2/1. Improvement to come and the Haggas horses are going well.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Jumps Bets: 16 Staked: 36.5 P/L: +15.4 Yield: +42.19% Flat Bets: 31 Staked: 72 P/L: -40.66 Yield: -56.47% In order to cut out bets on the lower class flat racing, I'm only going to bet on races that are class 3 or above, unless it's a horse that my alerts flag up and I feel it's value. Jumps will be my main focus.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:45 Goodwood Big Issue 3pt win - 9/2 (Bet365 - bog) Small field for this listed contest over 7f and not much form to go on but I think Big Issue is slightly overpriced here at 9/2. Takes the natural step-up to 7f which won't be a problem. Was third in group company lto, and that's when Hannon's horses weren't running well in Ireland at all. Don't think the fav should be odds on, could be anything and wouldn't chance finding out at odds-on. Gives me value here though.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:45 Sedgefield Schinken Otto 4pt win - 5/2 (PP) Think this one should be fave here. This looks an awful race. Tiger King is making his chasing debut but makes no appeal at 9/2 with just one hurdling win to his name over 3 years ago. Think he'll have his work cut-out on his current mark. Calculate looks to be way too high in the handicap and is coming back from a 100 day lay-off. Skiddaw Jones has just one flat win to his name and hasn't managed to get competitive in any chase start yet. Film Festival has had 4 chase starts and finished second on two occasions, but they weren't exactly promising, hasn't done enough to warrant favouritism in my eyes. My selection will be able to get competitive off his current mark, and James Halliday is also taking off 5lbs. Has won here twice and usually always puts in a good race at Sedgefield.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:15 Sedgefield Oniz Tiptoes 1pt EW - 18/1 (Skybet) Good price here. Had his first run for a few months lto and I'm not worried about that because his first run is usually way below par. Is on a winnable mark and likes the course. Jockey has won on him in the past and takes off a useful 3lbs giving him a tiny weight. Has won on good/soft ground before so that won't be a problem either. Trip is my only concern, it's probably a bit too short but it's worth risking at the price.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Further 0.5pts EW at 28/1 with the same firm. Will get paid out at a bigger price if it places anyway due to the best price guaranteed on the race. Edit; got that wrong, thought I'd done it with PaddyPower. 0.5pts EW with PP at 28/1 and 1pt EW with Skybet at 18/1.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

3:30 Beverley Captain Dunne - 1pt EW - 7/1 (PaddyPower) Backed this one lto, thought he ran a really good race behind Hamish Mcgonagall. Didn't get the best of runs through and had to switch, but ran on well. Is always there or thereabouts in these contests and is rated top on official figures. Think he is quite a big price at 7/1 in this field, and although the draw is a negative, it seems worth the risk. If he can get his early position he'll be a big player.

Ran really well in the above race, finished third and looked the very likely winner at one stage (1.26 in running). Is priced up at 8/1 with Skybet currently. 3.5pt win.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets ^ That's in the 3:10 Doncaster. 2:35 Doncaster Choose Wisely - 4pt win - 2/1 (B365 - bog) Was turned over lto at odds-on but this horse has the best form in the race and 2/1 is too big too ignore. The step up to 6f should suit this horse and if he returns to his form behind Zebedee he wins. Barefoot Lady looks too short given what she beat on debut. Could well come on for that alot and win nicely but isn't value for me.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:45 Doncaster Miami Gator 2pt win - 13/2 Good old legends race. Horse loves all type of ground and still looks to be on a lenient mark after holding off all horses and winning comfortably lto over today's trip. Highest mark to date but is only a 3yo and could be capable of better. Let's hope Charlie Swan can guide this one home.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 13/2 taken with VC, as short as 9/2 elsewhere.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:50 Doncaster Colepeper 2pts EW - 6/1 (Bet365 - bog 1/4) Progressive 3yo here who seems to appreciate most conditions. Beat Layla's Hero lto on soft ground, making all and asserting nicely towards the finish. Has been close up to the likes of Sea Lord on good ground also. Goes well when turned out quickly so the two week break should be perfect. Dettori booked which is a positive.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Sorry for brief write ups, don't have much time today. :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:30 Uttox Mzuri Bay 1.5pt EW - 28/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4) Looks to be way overpriced here. Only win to date was 1f short of today's trip off a mark only 3lbs lower than today. Has finished a close up second over 3 miles as well. Has had a 22 day break which could be key, didn't run well when turned out quickly lto. Only a 5yo too so improvement still to come, and a mark of 110 looks pretty decent.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:20 Doncaster Al Zir 5pt win - 13/8 (William Hill) Big bet for me here. Wigmore Hall is the horse in form with recent runs but has had a tough race in America and will need to be in tip top shape to take this imo. Al Zir was well fancied for the Guineas and finished only 6l behind the eventual winner. Went to the Derby and didn't run a bad race comparitively. Has had a nice break and Godolphin currently have their horses in great shape. Should be odds-on to take this for me.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:05 Uttox Pokanoket 2pts EW - 10/1 (Bluesquare) Had my write up done for this and accidentally clicked off the page so lost it all! Basically, she is back to her ideal conditions here and hasn't had them since she last won over the ideal trip. Given the way she won the mark is probably lenient. She is a game horse and will be trying all the way. Halliday takes off a useful 5lbs here too.