BKI's Bets

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

2:50 Chepstow William Hogarth 5pt win - 11/4 (Skybet) Ran to some respectable levels last season and will make this a tough test for the odds-on fav. Is a front-runner who will enjoy the bit of cut in the ground and Rhys Flint rides Chepstow will. Should put in a bold bid.

another 3pts at 7/2 with VC.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:40 Chelt Osieau De Nuit 2pts EW - 20/1 (Skybet) Price looks big to me. Likely because of the ground, but the horse ran well on good ground lto when finishing second (ahead of Twist Magic). This step-up to 20f seems sensible at this stage. Has run once at this distance but that was only his third run in heavy ground. Was a modest hurdler but has shot up in the ratings since chasing winning 5 out of 15 starts, coming second four times and third twice. Obviously there's a long break to come back from but that's factored into the price. Given his form last season (second to Kalahari King at Doncaster), if he's anywhere near his best he'll be right there.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:00 Newmarket Debussy 2pts EW - 16/1 (Skybet) Just based on formlines with Gio Ponti, Debussy can beat Twice Over. The form of Debussy's last win has been franked by both the runner-up and the third placed horse. It was a great ride from Buick who only got a gap late on and surged through to win nicely. If he can repeat that run I wouldn't be surprised to see him take this.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Bets

2:40 Chelt Osieau De Nuit 2pts EW - 20/1 (Skybet)

Vulnerable off this mark and probably needed it. Combination of fitness and a claimer would be ideal nto. I also liked him, but just wasn't sure he'll have much in hand :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Agree, also has to be question marks over the trip. Not sure he stays it tbh, blew up quite badly despite travelling decently (4.40 in running). Could be the lack of fitness but not sure. 3:15 Worcester The Giant Bolster 5pt win - 11/4 (VC) Would be a lot shorter on the back of his Cheltenham run if he was trained by someone more fashionable. Top rated over hurdles by 9lbs and is only 5 years old. Big price if running to his Cheltenham form here. Stays well and ground isn't a problem.

[markmywords]

Re: BKI's Bets Good shout mate:clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Cheers man. Impressive I think, given his moderate jumping. Really powered clear. 3:55 Carlisle Bocamix 2pts EW - 12/1 (WH) Shouldn't be 12/1 for me. I think this is mainly based on the ground, but although he has been running on soft almost all of the time, other than his Chelt form (out of his league), his form when the ground is in any way 'good', reads 13134. Has a claimer on board taking off 3lbs and the price is good enough to overcome whether he's fit or not. Could be a big price.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:10 Aintree Mille Chief 10pt win - 9/4 (Bet365) Westlin' Winds 3.5pt win - 7/2 (Bet365) Surprised about the Mille Chief price. Triumph hurdle favourite before injury last year, and had won decently enough. First run after time out, but connections seem happy. Big price if he's ready. Westlin' Winds ran well behind some smart horses the other day when generally unfancied. I'll be very surprised if anything else comes out to beat this pair, both four year old improvers who look to be better than this lot.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:55 Doncaster Dunboyne Express 5pt win - 9/2 (Bet365) Think this is a massive price. Beat Master of Hounds on debut (MoH already had benefit of one run) with Roderic O'Connor in behind. Then went out to slam Samuel Morse and Glor Na Mara (debut run) over 6.5f at the Curragh. Really went away during the final furlong and looked impressive. Would be way shorter if this was an O'Brien horse. Price accounts for his stamina questions, although he won over 7f on debut and should get the mile.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:10 Chepstow Restless Harry 5pt win - 11/2 (Bet365) Quite surprised with this price. Very game horse, showed his class lto when slamming a small field after his brave Cheltenham effort. Before that, beat General Miller (franked form) by 8l at Cheltenham, with Royal Charm (rated 145) in third, 16l behind. Is carrying quite a lot of weight but is definitely good enough. Will appreciate the softer going also.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Long overdue update. Flat Bets: 97 Staked: 353 P/L: -49.41 Yield: -13.99% Jumps Bets: 38 Staked: 139 P/L: -1.2 Yield: -0.86%

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:40 Ascot Carruthers 5pt win - 7/1 (Bet365) Silmi 3pt win - 10/1 (PP) Despite making his seasonal debut and shouldering top weight, I think Carruthers has a good chance of landing this. Despite winning most his races in soft/heavy conditions, he ran well at Aintree after a tough crack at the Gold Cup to finish second to What A Friend and ahead of Nacarat. He has had one run at Ascot, winning a four runner race by 54 lengths over three miles on heavy ground. The 5/4 favourite that day fell at the last but was 8 lengths down and always held. I was impressed with Carruthers at Aintree because of his hard Gold Cup run. Tried to make-all in his usual fashion but obviously wasn't quite as good as the top 3m chasers, fading badly to finish fourth. Aintree was less than a month away but he put in a great performance, looking the likely winner at times. If he's fit tomorrow, he'll take a lot of beating imo. A lot of the rivals here have question marks over this trip/ground and 7/1 looks massive. Silmi is another I like here. One of the few in this race that has the benefit of a recent run. Had been getting badly outpaced over 2m2f but still finishing close-up and staying on. The step-up in trip immediately paid dividends with two wins, the last of which was a listed race at Market Rasen. Five Dream was the runner up, and he showed decent bits of form last season, finishing close up to the highly regarded Weird Al. Silmi won the listed race well, held-up, made very nice progress to take up the running and then imo idled. Not sure how much he had left but he has been placed straight into this race and could be capable of improving further. The ground isn't going to be an issue and he definitely looks capable of staying 3m. Just a question of whether or not this is out of his league, but 10/1 is worth finding out.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:15 Ascot Get Me Out Of Here 5pts EW - 9/4 (1/4) (William Hill) Surprised the price is so big, but accounts for seasonal debut and top weight. Was arguably unlucky in the Supreme Novices, finishing second to Menorah and ahead of Dunguib. Was unbeaten before that, the highlight being the Totesport Trophy. Messed up the last hurdle, but had so much left in the tank and made the victory look easy. Was expected to go chasing this season but for whatever reason that hasn't happened. In this type of race, though, I don't think the weight will stop him winning. Is clearly a classy horse, will be massively surprised if he doesn't finish in the top 3.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Got to have another 5pt win at 11/4 with Betfred. Too big.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Wasn't happy at all with that ride but I'll move on... 1:35 Longchamp French Navy 10pt win 5/2 (Ladbrokes) I think this is a big price. Roderic O'Connor is the main rival in the betting but I have doubts about him. He's out just 15 days after his run behind Frankel in the Dewhurst, and I'm not sure the form is to be taken literally. None of the hold-up horses fired other than Frankel, but I think that's because his class got him through. I think the AOB horse was flattered. French Navy is yet to faulter and won well lto beating Havane Smoker who reopposes here. Without ROC in the race he'd be much shorter and I'm willing to bet that ROC was flattered, but we'll see.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets ROC proved me wrong but French Navy didn't run to form. Has held the runner up twice in two runs previously. Pulled hard but never really got going. 1:30 Kempton Representingceltic 3pts EW - 12/1 (Bet365) Surprised at this price. Has only run in three bumpers to date but has shown promise. Finished third to Finian's Rainbow on his second start at this course, and then improved on that to finish second in another bumper at Worcester, with the winner of that going on to win again. That run should put him spot on for his first hurdle race and a few of the market principles may need the run.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:10 Kempton Golan Way 8pt win - 11/4 (Bet365) Really don't like the favourite here. Coming back from a long break since a fall at Punchestown. I never liked him much before and was shocked that he was sent off favourite lto. He stayed on well at Cheltenham to finish as close as he did but still hasn't tried a trip as far as this. Golan Way made his chasing debut last month so will be fine fitness-wise. It was a great start to his chasing career. Winning easily by 29l at Ludlow on good ground. If you take the form with the second literally and account for what he had in hand, he should be able to lay it down to this field. Proven stamina and no ground worries.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:35 Exeter Somersby 15pt win - 9/4 (Ladbrokes) Twist Magic 3pt win - 22/1 (Skybet) Really like Somersby here. Was a fine second in the Arkle behind Sizing Europe and then finished second to Mad Max at Aintree. Back down a little in trip, I think 9/4 is a massive price. Beat his closest market rival Tchico Polos last year in a novice chase, and I don't think Cornas will cut it here despite a good record at the course. Twist Magic can't be left alone at 22/1. Massive weight to carry but he is now ridden differently, so could be interesting.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:15 Warwick Living Proof 6pt win - 9/1 (Skybet) Overpriced here based on first run. Was unfancied at 40/1, but ran a blinder in third pulling a long way clear of the 4th placed favourite. May improve for that experience and the claimer on board takes off 7lbs.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:05 Haydock Categorical 5pt win - 16/1 (Ladbrokes) The Jazz Musician 5pt win - 6/1 (Ladbrokes) Will take these two here, think both have big chances and are overpriced. Categorical won two chases on varying ground before being pulled up in April but he was turned out pretty quickly. Has had two runs on the flat so will be fit enough to give a good showing fto over the jumps this season. Gets the trip and further. The Jazz Musician is an interesting one, tried at the top level lto at Aintree over 2m4f which obviously was out of his league, but this is realistic company and a mark of 126 could be lenient. The stable are going well at the moment too and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one win nicely.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:05 Down Royal Blackstairmountain 15pt win - 7/2 (Betfred) Even allowing for the fact that it's his seasonal debut this is a big price. He has been fine going fresh in the past and even though he's thrown straight into the deep end in a grade one conceding weight, if he's improved over the summer he'll be able to win this. Mullins is hoping to aim him at the Champion Hurdle, so again if he's to be a contender winning this shouldn't be an impossible task. Was beaten by Luska Lad last year, travelled well and took up the running but was beaten by the ground. Went on to win the Champion novice hurdle at Punchestown well, travelling all over everything before putting the race to bed. Mullins horses aren't going terribly and he had a winner yesterday with a horse making his debut for the season. Walsh on board once again and I'm hopeful.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:10 Wincanton American Trilogy 5pts EW - 12/1 (VC) I think this is a massive price for the smart Nicholls horse. In his stable tour he said he doesn't like putting horses that haven't been seen for a long time (example was Taranis) in races knowing they'll need the run, he gets them fit to win. If my selection is in this shape today he'll go very close. Skelton rides Wincanton well and the stable are in good form. Although he'd probably prefer cut, AT has won on good ground in the past. 12/1 is big enough to see out any doubts.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:45 Wincanton Irish Raptor 3pts EW - 22/1 (VC) The Package 10pts EW - 13/2 (VC) NTD's stable going very well at present and Paddy takes the ride here. U5F76 doesn't make for attractive form figures, but this horse is 3lbs down from his last win which was quite some time ago, is sure to get the trip and won't have a problem on the ground. Has gone well in the past at the start of the season too. The Package looks a massive price here. Goes well enough on previous debut runs, goes on any ground and the drop back to 3m will be hugely appreciated given previous efforts over further. Efforts at 3m or just over read 3312, with the 2 being a nose defeat at the Cheltenham festival. Think these two are the value picks.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:00 Donc Harry Patch 10pt win - 8/1 (Bet365) Very happy with this price for the lightly raced 4yo. Has won 3 of his 6 career starts including a win over a soft 6f at this course. Was never going lto, didn't start well and probably needs the extra furlong. Finished only 3 lengths off the winner in the end which was a good effort. Comes here having only raced 3 times this year so won't be over the top and can put in a much better showing today.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:10 Donc Tepmokea 5pt win - 14/1 (VC) Willing Foe 5pt win - 7/1 (Bet365) Comes into this race on the back of a good win at York over this distance on soft ground. Had placed twice previously over 10f on good ground but the step up in trip worked well. It was against lesser opposition, but 14/1 here against better horses seems value. Was only 3 lengths away from Willing Foe over 10f and was staying on, and was also conceding weight that day. The Fahey stable also had two winners yesterday which bodes well here. Willing Foe looks big at 7/1. Has only had four career starts, was a well backed favourite on his debut but was disappointing on the a/w surface at Wolves. Switch to turf worked wonders and he has won every race since. If he can keep improving again he'll be the one to beat here imo.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 5:50 Churchill Downs Madman Diaries 5pts EW - 20/1 (Skybet 1/4) Juvenile turf race to kick off a great night of racing in America. Unexposed horses here with little form to go on, potentially going to throw up a nice surprise and I've gone with the Wesley Ward trained Madman Diaries. Has done all of his racing at 6f and below so the step-up to a mile here is unknown quantity but at the prices I'm willing to give it a go. Has won 3 out of 5 career starts including a grade 3 last time out, making all and staying on strongly to score by half a length. Has stamina in his pedigree so there's every chance he'll stay.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 7:15 Churchill Downs California Flag 10pt win - 14/1 (Bet365) Big price for a horse with a Breeder's Cup win to his name. Won this race last year although admittedly went into that race with better form to his name. This drop down to 5f may well help the horse, has only won one race out of three this year and that was over 5f, and is 3/3 from this trip in total. This horse is always lightly raced throughout the year and is presumably primed for this race, so 14/1 looks big.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 9:20 Churchill Downs Gayego 15pt win - 8/1 (Ladbrokes) Big price for this horse over a mile. Won well lto over a mile with the runner-up franking the form in a grade 2 since. Always been a highly thought of horse and ran a blinder last year at the Breeders Cup over 6f, finishing fourth but only a quarter of a length behind the winner. Hasn't been in the same form over the shorter distances this year but the step back up has seemed to work and he'll be hard to beat here imo. Frankie takes the ride also.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 10:00 Churchill Downs Debussy 20pt win - 7/1 (VC) Workforce withdrawn today, this leaves Behkabad as the strong favourite. I'll be going with the Gosden trained Debussy however, as he has experience of coming to America and winning whereas the other European hopes don't. Might try making all at a modest hopes which will hopefully play to his strengths. Ran an absolute blinder lto to finish third in the Champion Stakes, and reproduction of that could see him land this. Would be a great way for Gosden and Buick to finish off a good year.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 6:30 Churchill Downs Kinsale King 10pt win - 12/1 (Sportingbet) Has been off the track since July but wouldn't be entered here in this grade 1 if not able to give a good showing. Won four races in a row before finishing third to impressive sprinter Starspangledbanner at Ascot. Ran poorly nto but you can forgive one bad run as a sprinter. If anything back to his best would be nearer favouritism so very much worth risking here. Is at his best trip and will hopefully be ready.