BKI's Bets

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:55 Goodwood Himalya 3pt win - 5/2 (PaddyPower) Think Himayla will get his head in front here. Has been running consistently well, finishing close up in some very competitive handicaps. Form of his last race looks good. Travelled well but lacked the finishing kick of his rivals, only finishing 4l behind in the end. Shakespearean is now rated 116. Although most runners aren't massively exposed, it doesn't look a brilliant race, if he can run to similar form as lto, he should take this. A few of these runners are also coming back from lengthy breaks.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:45 Curragh Astrophysical Jet 2pt win - 5/1 (William Hill) Think this is quite a big price. Since dropping to 5f she's run twice, easily winning the first in a class 3 handicap, and then finishing third, less then a length away from Borderlescott. Captain Dunne placed in the listed sprint yesterday with Mister Hughie winning it, so the form looks strong. She's unexposed over 5f so could still be improving for the trip. Stable have only sent out 9 runners in the last 14 days, with three winners and two places so my selection could well be at peak form.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Wedding March -2 Himalya -3 Astrophysical Jet +10 Flat Bets: 6 Staked: 10.5 P/L: +1.5 Jumps Bets: 4 Staked: 6 P/L: +31.6 Astrophysical Jet won nicely, is improving alot. Himalya always seems to find one or two better, and Wedding March was poor once again.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Ooops, forgot to add Saturday's flat bets! -0.6 on the day. captain dunne +0.4 golden sword -1 Flat Bets: 8 Staked: 13.5 P/L: +0.9 Jumps Bets: 4 Staked: 6 P/L: +31.6

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:15 Huntingdon Agente Romana 2pt win - 11/2 (Betfred) Four line up for this novices chace and I'll be siding with Agente Romana. The betting reflects how wide open this event is and I think the outsider represents good value. Paul Moloney is in exceptionally good riding form, with four wins and three seconds in his last seven rides. He's only a 5yo and I'm not keen on the two horses at the head of the market, who've both had a few runs over fences and don't look anything special. Night Orbit is the other making his chasing debut here but I'm going to stick with the in-form trainer and jockey.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:05 Huntingdon Le Brocquy 3pt win - 4/1 (Betfred) Think this could well turn out to be a big price. Was disappointed when backing her two starts ago, held up well in rear and never pushed into contention at all. Went back over hurdles, cruised up on the bridle and led over the last, but couldn't put the race to bed and got caught close home. Is only a five year old and has the room for improvement over fences and with only two chase starts to her name she's the least exposed in this field. Different jockey on board from when I last backed him which is a positive for me.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 1pt saver on Red Birr at 3/1 with PP in that race. Think those two have it completely to themselves.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:10 Ripon Dubai Dynamo 0.5pts EW - 50/1 (Skybet) Have decided to stay away from big handicaps like this but just scanning through the prices and I can't leave this one alone at 50/1. His last win was off of today's mark in a competitive field, beating the progressive St Moritz by a head. Ian Brennan claims a further 5lbs here today. Has won over a mile and there are no doubts about the ground. Think this horse is great value.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Managed to call the 3:05 well with my selections filling the first two spots, but it was my saver that won with a better round of jumping. Still, with PP's BOG I got 4/1, so that's a 1pt profit on the race. The novices chase looked to be going extremely well. My selection was originally the11/2 outsider, but was backed into 11/4 second favourite before the off. Jumped beautifully and was travelling well in the lead when falling. I am certain with a clear round it would have gone in. The runner-up, Walamo, is not a reliable sort and doesn't jump brilliantly, and as expected, the strong favourite didn't amount to much and would have been unplaced imo. Night Orbit never travelled well. Dubai Dynamo ran with credit given the bad draw, but was never in contention really. Jumps Le Brocquy -3 Red Birr +4 Agente Romano -2 Flat Dubai Dynamo -1 Flat Bets: 9 Staked: 14.5 P/L: -0.1 Jumps Bets: 7 Staked: 12 P/L: +30.6

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:40 Leicester Singeur 3pt win - 6/4 (Boylesports) Red Avalanche 0.5pt win - 13/2 (B365 bog) Think 6/4 is a pretty decent price for the fave in this race. Has run some crackers this year in better company and should be able to land this one. Is yet to win on soft ground but made seasonal debut on soft ground going down by a shoulder when 8/13 fav. This doesn't put me off because it was his first run for a long time. He was also placed in a class 1 listed race on good to soft ground. Taking out the no-hopers the trainer has sent out in the last few weeks and he's in pretty good form. Red Avalanche is the danger I feel, so will have a little saver. The horse is having his third run of the season and is obviously still improving as a 3yo, has form on GS ground and Buick, who's in great nick, takes the ride.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:20 Newton Abbot Ballyvesey 5pt win - 6/5 (William Hill) Another short priced favourite but one I feel holds massive chances which is why I'm going in with a max bet. Four runner novice chase. The Pipe horse hasn't seen a racetrack for 521 days and isn't backable at 85/40. Hell's Bay has been chasing three times, pulling up once, finishing well beaten in another and running out in the other one. 4/1 is too short. Indian Pipe Dream has had 8 chase starts and is yet to get off the mark, has a lot to find with my selection here. My selection has had six chase starts, winning one and finishing second 4 times. He brings the best form to the table by some way. Along with the Pipe horse being away for so long, it hasn't even taken to a fence yet. I feel my selection should be odds on.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:20 Newton Abbot Coeur Brule 1pt EW - 18/1 (VC) Easy to see why he is this price, yet to win a race in 18 starts. Still think the 18's on offer are too big in this poor event though. This horse has threatened to win a few times, and has run well on soft/heavy ground which is a bonus. Finished just 5l behind Alazan in a maiden hurdle last year, and 11l behind Anak in another. Both are rated 130 and 124 respectively. He is also only a four year old, so improvement can be expected. He gets the trip no problem and could spring a little surpise here.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:55 Newton Abbot Le Forezein 2pt win - 3/1 (VC) This looks another weak afair and I think Le Forezein provides value at 3/1. Has won in the past off marks of 89 and 82, and today runs off 84 with Hawkins taking off another 7lbs. My selection has run seven times at Newton Abbot, and has been placed 6 times, winning one of them. He's 11 years old but this looks a very good opportunity to go in. I think Sir Bumble is too high in the handicap, struggled lto and think he'll struggle again despite the claimer taking off 3lbs. Captain Marlon is quite inconsistent and although is on a low handicap mark compared to his previous ones, I think he'll struggle with the weight.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Singeur -3 Red Avalanche -0.5 Both disappointed. Singeur (10/11f) was outpaced and stayed on again towards the finish. RA (11/1) was never in contention and eased considerably finishing 20+ lengths behind everything else. Flat Bets: 11 Staked: 18 P/L: -3.6

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Ballyvesey -5 Coeur Brule +3.5 Le Forezein -2 Ballyvesey was backed into 8/11 favourite, which were probably in my opinion his true odds (I got 6/4). Stayed on but couldn't match the impressive winner (Hell's Bay) over this distance. Pipe's runner a further 26l back. Coeur Brule ran a cracker. Was given a good ride by David Turner, striking the front and looking dangerous turning for home, but was headed in the straight and stayed on for second. Was very well backed too, into 10/1 having been 25's with some firms earlier in the day. Le Forezein's jumping let him down. Would have possibly won with a better round of jumping, looked to be going well coming to the third last I think it was, but put in a poor jump and sacrificed a lot of ground. Jumps Bets: 10 Staked: 21 P/L: +27.1

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 7:10 Southwell Bookiesindex Boy 1pt EW - 14/1 (Sportingbet) Grudge 0.5pt EW - 20/1 (VC) Think these prices are good. Put Bookiesindexboy in this thread last time out when he finished second to Ace of Spies, cruising up on the bridle in typical fashion but not finding much. He has found himself behind a few of these including favourite Westwood, but on that occasion he was conceding a lot of weight, and they meet on levels today. Stephen Craine takes the ride once again, has won on this horse before over this c+d. The price is too big for this horse at Southwell. Also think Grudge is overpriced. Has won twice at Southwell over this trip and is usually always there or thereabouts. Hasn't won off a handicap mark this high but I think he can, has put in some very creditable efforts on marks of 73, and once went down by less than a length off today's mark. Shane Kelly is riding pretty well and for the amount of horses the stable send out they're doing well, 4 of the 7 horses in the last fortnight have finished in the first three, with two wins.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:40 Hereford Job One 3pt win - 11/4 (Bluesquare) Winter Star - 1.5pt win - 5/2 (Bet365) I will be very surprised if this novices chase doesn't go to one of the above. Winter Star hasn't seen a track for 721 days but I have to have a saver on him as he'll win if fit an reproducing hurdle form over fences, and Evan Williams is in good form, and has booked AP here. So it's more of a saver bet. Job One would be evens in this field if you took out Winter Star. There are so many doubts about the other runners, with a couple of right dogs in the line up. Job One's first chase of this season saw him win comfortably over 2m7f by 12l. The form has been franked over hurdles by the third, and a couple in behind have put in further respectable efforts. It was Job One's first race of the season so we could expect even more improvement. He's still only 7 too. Winter Star can win this if reproducing his hurdle form but he hasn't been on the track for 2 years so fitness will probably tell. Having a saver just incase.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:40 Hereford Intact 1.5pts EW - 12/1 (Betfred) This price looks massive to me. This horse has only had 6 chase starts so far, winning only one and finishing second in another. Finished only half a length behind Classic Swain off level weights who is now rated 143 over fences! In the process pulling 19 lengths clear of Diaco who is rated 106. Nto he beat Tritonville Lodge who then went on to finish runner up in another competitive chase. I think this form puts him above anything in this race. He flopped lto but I think 12/1 in this race is a massive overreaction. The Tizzard's put right the wrongs of Hell's Bay yesterday and he won impressively, so let's hope they have this one spot on here. Ground and trip are all no problem.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 5:20 Kempton Sunley Spinalonga 1.5pt win - 11/4 (Skybet) This horse has been a model of consistensy with 9 placings in 11 runs, including 2 wins. Has raced on the Kempton AW surface twice, finishing second and fifth, with the fifth place finish only 2l off the winner. Lto he was racing on soft ground for the first time which could have hindered his finish and may not have particularly suited. Elsworth is showing a massive profit on the AW this year and Richard Hughes is an eyecatching booking.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 8:20 Kempton King of Windsor 1.5pts EW - 9/2 (Skybet) Can't see this one being outside the top 3. Has been contesting in class 2 handicaps over a mile, and finishing close up (a length behind) the likes of Sea Lord. Looks to still be on a very lenient rating imo, and Beckett is in very good form at the moment. If he continues producing his current level of form he might be a cut above this lot.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Job One -3 Winter Star -1.5 Intac -3 Jumps Bets: 13 Staked: 28.5 P/L: +19.6 Yield: +68.77% ------ Bookiesindex Boy -2 Grudge -1 Sunley Spinalonga -1.5 King Of Windsor -3 Flat Bets: 15 Staked: 25.5 P/L: -11.1 Yield: -43.52%

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:25 Salisbury Thrill 3pt win - 3/1 (Bet365 bog) Backed this horse as a saver last time out and it duly won under William Buick on seasonal debut. Can well be expected to come on even more for that run and Buick and Gosden are in absolutely great form as of late, I think 3/1 is a very good price. Opened at 4s but that's already been snapped up. The horse was well backed lto as well, opening at 8/1 but going off at 4/1. Got a feeling we will see her go off shorter than 3s. I liked the attitude she showed to see off the Godolphin favourite lto as well. Don't think she was harshly treated by the handicapper either and could prove to be a lot better than the mark of 86 suggests.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:50 Salisbury Margot Did 5pt win - evens (Skybet) Didn't want to take the 5/6 up last night but I'm happy to have a big bet at evens on his horse. I'm still adamant that this horse would have won comfortably last time out with a clear run, and has had some bad luck lately. I think Rimth was readily held and although still improving, I don't fancy the horse to reverse the placings. I know the field is relatively unexposed but my selection has the best form by quite a bit here, think she's more a 4/6 shot in honesty.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:40 Redcar Soviet Secret 1pt EW - 9/1 (VC) Adam Beschizza claims 5lbs here so my selection is basically running off a mark of 78, which should put him in with a cracking chance here. One of the unexposed 3yos in the race, has contested in 7 races so far, winning one and finishing second on 5 occasions. Think his price is based on his poor effort lto, but he was heavily eased towards the end, making the distance look much worse. It was a slightly better and more competitive handicap and can be forgiven one bad run out of seven. Most of this field are exposed older horses, a few of which will struggle to win off their current marks and I think this will go to one of the 3yos, my choice being the value for me.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 5:00 Salisbury The Wee Chief 3pt win - 5/2 (VC) Can't see past this one here. This is a pretty poor contest with my selection being one of the least exposed. Is usually slowly away from the stalls but in this small field it might not become such a massive issue. Plus the horse is a hold-up one. Was seventh last time out but had severe traffic problems during the race and couldn't find room when trying to come through. Hasn't been seen at his best over the short 5f but this looks by far the best chance to get off the mark over this trip and progress as improvement is possibly still to come. Hughes is a notable booking.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 6:20 Wolves Romantic Queen - 1pt EW - 16/1 (Skybet) She's on a mark of 67 which she has won on before, as well as winning off 68. All three wins to date have been at Wolves on the AW over this trip. Has ran consistently on her last four runs, all at Wolves, the form of her last race looks decent and I think her current mark puts her in strong contention here. Durcan takes the ride for Baker and this has proven to be a profitable combo over the last few seasons albeit with not many runners.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 5:45 Wolves Desert Strike - 2pt win - 7/1 (Ladbrokes) With Declan Cannon on board taking off 5lbs this horse has to have a massive chance today. This horse's only two wins have been from much higher marks but since dropping right down the handicap he's been getting competitive once again off marks of 60+. Today with the claim he'll be running off only 49 and the 7/1 on offer looks massive to me. Cannon's a very useful jockey.

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Re: BKI's Bets Wish i hadn't followed :(

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Two more bets today, one for now, one for later. 6:50 Wolves Fifth Dimension - 3.5pt win - 9/4 (Skybet) Think this is a very good price. Has only had one start, winning nicely at this course whilst not getting a clear run in the process. Janet's Pearl seems to find one too good and makes debut on the AW, so wouldn't want to take a short price about that one. Dazzling Valentine is exposed and Geordie Iris and Patricia's Hope both need to improve massively on what they've done so far. Fabiello has run three times at this course but seems to show his best on turf. With only one run to his name Fifth Dimension can be expected to improve further and take this comfortably imo.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

Wish i hadn't followed :(

Not asking anyone to follow me mate, and wouldn't recommend following on the flat, as that is clearly my weak point. This thread is simply for me to record all my bets and identify my weaker areas, which if you've read, is clearly the flat racing! :)