BKI's Bets

[BKI Punter]

Thought I'd start off a thread to record my bets on here. Been following many threads on here for a long time and have always wanted to have a crack. I'm a jumps guy but still have a few bets on the flat from time to time. Well, here goes nothing! :) 2:50 Haydock Les Fazzani 2pt win - 9/2 Distant Memories 1pt win - 11/2 Icon Dream 0.5 EW - 22/1 Les Fazzani has everything in his favour today. Hanagan is in cracking form and has been riding brilliantly for Ryan this year showing a tidy level stakes profit. Les Fazzani has only had three runs this year, winning one and placing in another. The 7 length defeat last time out can be discounted as on turf, he clearly prefers a bit of cut in the ground. Will have no problem staying the trip. Distant Memories has only ever been out of the frame twice in ten starts, and has constantly been improving. Seems to handle any going. Spencer is in good form and has ridden the horse on it's last three outings, finishing second twice and winning the other, never beaten by more than a length. Is a game battler and will always be trying. I can't work out why Icon Dream is a 22/1 shot. Has never been beaten by far on any outing other than the last one, however the horse had been quickly upped to two miles and didn't stay. Will relish any cut in the ground and has some decent form behind Ted Spread, Jan Vermeer and Shintoh. Only a matter of time before this one goes in. 3:25 Haydock Persian Peril 0.5pt EW - 22/1 Persian Peril looks a good price for me here. Hasn't won over this exact distance but has won on soft going over further, and with more rain forcast for tomorrow on what is already soft ground, stamina may play a bigger part. Both jockey and trainer are in form here too, so I'm hopeful for a big run. His form this year hasn't been great, but he's yet to race on soft ground. This horse also loves Haydock, winning twice from three outings there. Four of his five wins have been at this time of year, so if he's going to go in again, now's the time for it.

[mowgli77]

Re: BKI's Bets Good luck with your thread, very decent write ups and nice to see people putting the effort in with their reasoning. Goes to show there are still some punters around who value the reasoning, rather than the posters that join and want to provide lists of "tips". :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Cheers mate, hope it goes well too. Not the greatest start, but hey ho. So annoyed today though. Looked at the Phoenix stakes and decided not to back Zoffany based solely on Ascot form, despite having his conditions today. Thought Strong Suit would be too strong. Angry at myself for that as I know not to base a horse on just one running over another horse. :@

[mowgli77]

Re: BKI's Bets

Cheers mate, hope it goes well too. Not the greatest start, but hey ho. So annoyed today though. Looked at the Phoenix stakes and decided not to back Zoffany based solely on Ascot form, despite having his conditions today. Thought Strong Suit would be too strong. Angry at myself for that as I know not to base a horse on just one running over another horse. :@

I looked at that race too but just to see how form worked out and thought a short priced double of Fame and Glory and Strong Suit may be what many punters would go for today. I thought Fame and Glory was worth it's odds on tag as it is proven at Group level, no way would I touch Strong Suit though at odds on based on one good run. Had my fingers burned too many times in the past for that. Also can't write a horse off after one bad run so maybe there will be some value in backing Strong Suit to win next years Guineas???

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets I think at this stage I'd want at least 20/1 for Strong Suit in the Guineas, factoring in the chances of him actually getting there of course. I was reading that this race perhaps came too soon for Strong Suit, he has looked top notch in his other two starts. Canford Cliffs was the same last year being turned over at odds-on in France so I definitely wouldn't rule him (Strong Suit) out. Still a little short for my likings though. Richard Hughes didn't help by telling everyone to get on at 10/1 after the Coventry. :( Just noticed F&G went off at 1/12 today. :eek In all honesty, it probably was a true reflection of his chance.

[BillyHills]

Re: BKI's Bets Nice one BKI, just a small point, when you quote prices put the bookies name in aswell mate where the prices are available:ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 5:00 Southwell Scruffy Skip 1pt EW - 13/2 (Skybet) Bookiesindexboy 0.5pt EW - 16/1 (VC) I think these are two very good prices. Scruffy Skip has run 10 times at Southwell in his career, placing on seven occasions, four of them being wins. After winning twice in a row, he was sent out to Brighton and Lingfield, on good to firm ground. This clearly didn't suit and he finished well down the field on both occasions. Conditions are now back in his favour and my only worry is the jockey, but I think the price makes up for that. Bookiesindexboy is a horse that does almost all it's work on the bridle. His only win this year was at this course, the jockey didn't have to move a muscle and he won nicely. I think the report 'very easily' flatters him, because it's just the way he runs. However, 16/1 at Southwell (rated 18lbs better on the a/w) must be taken in my eyes. Craine is on board and does seem to ride him pretty well, finishing close up on quite a few occasions.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:00 Southwell Proud Times 1pt EW - 5/1 (Skybet) Speed Dating is currently going at around 5/2, which I think is poor value compared to Proud Times, who has already beaten Speed Dating, and is very lightly raced so open to improvement. He clearly prefers slower ground as all his best efforts on turf have been when the ground has been described as good to soft or heavy. If anything, Southwell is going to suit this horse. McDonald is back on board, and the trainer has had quite a few good winners in the past 14 days so I'm expecting a decent run.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Les Fazzini -2 Distant Memories -1 Icon Dream -1 Persian Peril -1 Proud Times +6 Scruffy Skip -2 Bookiesindex Boy +1.1 Current Figures: Bets: 7 Staked: 10 P/L: +0.1 Yield: +0.10% Decent day today. Recouping all losses from Saturday. Proud Times won well (13/2 SP), with both him and Speed Dating pulling 17 lengths clear from the rest of the field. Speed Dating came looming up on the bridle but eventually found nil. Bookiesindex Boy eventually went off at 20/1, and like Speed Dating came looming up on the bridle but couldn't find enough. Watching it he never looked like winning to me, needed to make up too much ground on the winner. Still, a nice place at the 16/1 taken.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 7:10 Windsor Rule Breaker 0.5pt EW - 11/1 (Skybet) Chica Whopa 0.25pt EW - 16/1 (VC) Each-way value to be had in this race, with what is in my opinion, an awful odds on shot. Rule Breaker is another lightly raced horse. Was probably given a handicap mark a little out of his league and has naturally come down from the original 88 to now sit on 81. This contest is a lot easier than the handicaps he has participated in lately, so a big run could well be on the cards. The ground and trip are fine, and Dettori is a notable booking. Chica Whopa is also very lightly raced, and like Rule Breaker, was slightly out of his league last time out. The step up to a mile looks sure to suit on breeding and 16/1 for a Hannon horse with Hughes on board looks great considering the potential for improvement.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Rule Breaker +0.6 Chica Whopa +0.55 Unfortunately couldn't get the odds-on shot beaten, but both horses filled up the places. Pretty sure Rule Breaker is going to go in soon, so will keep watching that one if the handicap mark remains about the same. Current Figures: Bets: 9 Staked: 11.5 P/L: +1.25 Yield: +10.86%

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:30 Lingfield Kanaf 1.5pt win 9/2 - Bet365. I think Kanaf holds strong claims in this 6f handicap. I expected him to be more around the 3/1 mark. He is a lightly raced sort who is open to improvement, and I think his current handicap mark is slightly lenient. Wasn't fancied at all on his first start, and the result probably surprised connections, finishing close up as well as being hampered during the race. Went on to win well next time out at short odds, before finishing a respectable third in a handicap. Has had a few starts since and finished close up, without really getting to the leaders. Last time out he was denied a clear run, which ultimately cost him any chance of winning the race. The one thing to consider is the horse taking to the surface, but that is probably why the price is more generous than I anticipated. Dunlop is also in decent nick, which bolsters his chances.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:45 Newton Abbot Elite Land 1pt EW - 11/2 (Skybet) I'm quite sweet on the chances of this one here. Has only had three chase starts to date, winning one and finishing fourth on both other occasions. Last time out over fences he finished 9 lengths behind the winner, but started from a ridiculous position behind the field, even if he is a hold-up horse. Also, note that it was the first time he has tried the horse at 2m2f, and returns to just over 2m today. That previous effort was off the same handicap mark as today and I'm pretty confident in him putting up a good fight. His trainer, Ellison, has sent his horses out chasing 8 times this year, with three wins, three seconds and two fourths, so I'm hoping Elite Land will be in good shape to take this one.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:45 Newton Abbot Wild Power 0.5pt win @ 39/1 - 1pt place @ 7/1 (Betfair) Wasn't interested in this old fella earlier at the 16/1 available, but these prices on Betfair are value to me. Hasn't won a race in four years, but has put in many creditable efforts, and is now racing off his lowest ever handicap mark. Has course form and has done all it's winning over this distance or thereabouts, and is worth a nibble at the price.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

4:30 Lingfield Kanaf 1.5pt win 9/2 - Bet365. I think Kanaf holds strong claims in this 6f handicap. I expected him to be more around the 3/1 mark. He is a lightly raced sort who is open to improvement, and I think his current handicap mark is slightly lenient. Wasn't fancied at all on his first start, and the result probably surprised connections, finishing close up as well as being hampered during the race. Went on to win well next time out at short odds, before finishing a respectable third in a handicap. Has had a few starts since and finished close up, without really getting to the leaders. Last time out he was denied a clear run, which ultimately cost him any chance of winning the race. The one thing to consider is the horse taking to the surface, but that is probably why the price is more generous than I anticipated. Dunlop is also in decent nick, which bolsters his chances.

Another 0.5pt win at 5/1 with Skybet.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Elite Land ran a fair race, overestimated his chasing ability. Just a little out of his league. Wild Power fell when still there in contention, so I might still look out for him in a similar race at a big price. Kanaf won nicely at a very generous price in the end. Came widest of all round the bend and picked up nicely to land the race. Probably won a lot better than the winning distance suggests. Hopefully he's not punished too much for that win, I think there's more to come with him. Elite Land -2 Wild Power -1.5 Kanaf +9.25 Current Figures: Bets: 14 Staked: 17 P/L: +7 Yield: +41.1%

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 8:05 Ffos Las Aeroplane 0.5pt EW - 20/1 (Bet365) Think this price is too big to let go. There are some short priced improvers in the field, but with Zero Money and Pallentes Cross likely to want the lead, there may be a chance for Aeroplane to come in cruising off the quick pace. He is only ever ridden in one way, held up, so Richard Hughes is a significant booking. Lowest handicap mark for quite some time, and although his best efforts have been over seven furlongs, he put in two notable performances at a mile not too long ago. Could well make a mockery of this price tonight.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Aeroplane was poor, and not given a hard ride by Hughes in the end. Most likely needed the run, and probably isn't good enough to carry top weight in these sort of handicaps anymore. Current Figures: Bets: 15 Staked: 18 P/L: +6 Yield: +33.3%

[StuSimmy]

Re: BKI's Bets Good luck with this mate, you've made a decent enough start :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Thanks mate. :ok 4:20 Beverley Follow The Flag 1pt EW - 16/1 (bet365) Don't think this price will hold up tomorrow. My selection has been busy this year, winning three times, twice under Declan Cannon and twice over today's trip of 10 furlongs. Has improved a lot stepping up in trip. Is definitely at it's peak handicap mark I think the horse can perform at. He has been showing decent accounts of himself on marks of up to 88. Didn't enjoy the way the race was run at Newmarket two starts ago as he likes a strong pace to sit off, so I'm happy to ignore that run. There should be a strong pace here which will make things ideal. Interestingly it has been mighty profitable to follow Cannon on horses four years old and up this year, showing a figure of +77 to a one pound stake. Also shows a profit riding for McCabe, who is also showing his biggest course profit at Beverley this season.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 7:10 Sandown Asraab 2pt win - 11/4 (PaddyPower) Asraab with just one start to his name is the least exposed in this decent event. Could very well be running off a rather lenient mark here. I think the fact that this is his first run since last October is why the price isn't around the 2/1 mark. I don't usually back such unexposed horses but the form of his maiden win has been franked by almost every participant, and I think the price is very fair. Godolphin are in decent form, better than they have been for a long time, and this is the time for them to usually start firing in the winners with their progressive types.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Think Thrill may also be on a very lenient handicap mark, and with Gosden and Buick in such good form it'd be stupid to let that price slide. Will have a saver on this one. Thrill 0.5pts EW - 15/2 (PaddyPower)

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

Think Thrill may also be on a very lenient handicap mark, and with Gosden and Buick in such good form it'd be stupid to let that price slide. Will have a saver on this one. Thrill 0.5pts EW - 15/2 (PaddyPower)

Couple of non-runners so the prices I've taken have gone down. However, Thrill is 11/1 with VC right now, and I think that's way too big given the new size of the field. I'll have another 0.25pts EW.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

Thanks mate. :ok 4:20 Beverley Follow The Flag 1pt EW - 16/1 (bet365) Don't think this price will hold up tomorrow. My selection has been busy this year, winning three times, twice under Declan Cannon and twice over today's trip of 10 furlongs. Has improved a lot stepping up in trip. Is definitely at it's peak handicap mark I think the horse can perform at. He has been showing decent accounts of himself on marks of up to 88. Didn't enjoy the way the race was run at Newmarket two starts ago as he likes a strong pace to sit off, so I'm happy to ignore that run. There should be a strong pace here which will make things ideal. Interestingly it has been mighty profitable to follow Cannon on horses four years old and up this year, showing a figure of +77 to a one pound stake. Also shows a profit riding for McCabe, who is also showing his biggest course profit at Beverley this season.

Also going to have 0.25pts EW on Jonny Lesters Hair as a saver at 15/2 with the same firm. I think he's also slightly progressive with the step-up in trip and hasn't put a foot wrong at 10f in three attemps.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Thank God I placed those savers! Johnny Lesters Hair finished first in a dead heat with Bencoolen, so the stake halves. Thrill beat Asraab by a neck, eventually going off at 4/1, which I thought was more it's true price. There was a rule four of 15p to the pound in my first bet on Thrill, but not on the second. Just watched the Asraab race and think he was unlucky, not being able to kick for home when he wanted to. He'll probably go off very short next time out though. Another good day overall. Follow the Flag -2 Asraab -2 Thrill +7.13 Johnny Lesters Hair +1.13 Total +4.26 Current Figures: Bets: 20 Staked: 24 P/L: +10.26 Yield: +42.75%

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Only one bet for me in the daytime meetings, will take a look at the evening meetings later on. 4:15 Salisbury Poet's Voice 0.5pts EW - 20/1 (Bet365) Think I have to get involved at this price. My selection has only been seen twice this season. Firstly in the French 2000 Guineas, perfectly entitled to need the run and finished a decent 8th, ten lengths off the winner. Went out on soft ground next time out and didn't run well, but that was the first time he'd encountered soft ground, so I'm not too put off by that. Shaped with a lot of promise last season when running consistently well in decent contests. One thing to note about Godolphin is that their second strings do sometimes spring surprises at good prices. Last year's St Ledger is still fresh in my mind after backing Kite Wood! All in all, Poet's Voice is still open to improvement, and could well come on a lot for his last two efforts. The price is well worth the risk.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

Only one bet for me in the daytime meetings, will take a look at the evening meetings later on. 4:15 Salisbury Poet's Voice 0.5pts EW - 20/1 (Bet365) Think I have to get involved at this price. My selection has only been seen twice this season. Firstly in the French 2000 Guineas, perfectly entitled to need the run and finished a decent 8th, ten lengths off the winner. Went out on soft ground next time out and didn't run well, but that was the first time he'd encountered soft ground, so I'm not too put off by that. Shaped with a lot of promise last season when running consistently well in decent contests. One thing to note about Godolphin is that their second strings do sometimes spring surprises at good prices. Last year's St Ledger is still fresh in my mind after backing Kite Wood! All in all, Poet's Voice is still open to improvement, and could well come on a lot for his last two efforts. The price is well worth the risk.

Going to have a further 0.25pts EW at the 28's offered by VC. Think this price is still too big.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Sooooo close with Poet's Voice. Finished second by a nose, and was favourite on Betfair as soon as the race finished to get the photo call, trading at roughly 1.3. Really underestimed Sea Lord at this level, cracking battler. Still, a nice return on the placing. One more for tonight. 7:30 Leopardstown Beethoven 3pts win - 13/8 (VC) Really fancy Beethoven to register his first win of the season here. Has run some absolutely cracking races behind Canford Cliffs this season at big prices. Won the Dewhurst last year beating the likes of Dick Turpin, Xtension and Buzzword. Whilst he obviously hasn't improved as much as Dick Turpin, he has still put up some very bold showings against the very best 3yo's this year. I actually have him down as an odds-on shot for this race, making his current price good value. JP O'Brien takes the ride which is fine for me, has already given him two good rides this year and obviously knows the horse very well.

[puntyboy]

Re: BKI's Bets Excellent selections today BKI. Thought Poet had it too. :clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Cheers mate. Hopefully this decent start continues, but I'm not gonna get too excited just yet. Beethoven won easily at an SP of 2/1. Think that was a crazy price, as I said I rated him an odds-on shot in that field. Was given a very confident ride by O'Brien, and only needed to be urged along with hands and heels to win. Think there's gonna be another big race in him this year. Oh, the first bet on Poet's Voice is now 25/1, with Bet365 BOG. Poet's Voice +3.15 Beethoven +4.88 Total +8.03 Current Figures: Bets: 23 Staked: 28.5 P/L: +18.29 Yield: +64.17%