BKI's Bets

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Two second place finishers. :\ Will have a further 2pts on Equiano at the 9/2 offered by Lads. Think this price is massive.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Further 1.5pts EW on Rule Breaker with B365. 7/1 is still a big price for a well handicapped progressive type.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Disappointing. 4:40 York Wicked Daze - 3pts EW - 14/1 (Skybet) Could be on a very lenient handicap mark here. Has won off 85 twice this year albeit on the AW. Last time out won gamely over this trip and at the course, fending off Dazinsky. Has been running consistently well on turf this year with the handicap mark increasing steadily, but there's nothing to suggest he won't appreciate his optimum conditions again today. Likes to lead and has a good draw. Stable are showing a very healthy profit with their 4yo+ horses too.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Traded at 1.3 something in running. :eyes Will put the 7.5pts from that on Endless Intrigue (still 10/11 with B365). It is possibly my biggest fancy of the year so far, and think it shoud be 1/2 on form.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Been tempted again, but expected this to be shorter. 5:20 Killarney Encompassing 8pts win - 9/4 (Bluesqaure) Brings the best form to the table. Has been used as a pacemaker for Ballydole but today is definitely in the mix of things. Has smart form over a mile and Joe O'Brien is a very exciting prospect, landing a group 3 win with Beethoven a week ago. A few of the other short-priced horses here have something to prove at this level, whereas Encompassing has run to good enough form to provide a stiff test.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Further 2pts at 3/1 with Lads.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Disappointing again. Last bet of the day for me: 5:50 Killarney Northern Rocked 10pt win - 9/2 (Paddypower) Still a maiden but has not had everything go for him yet. Today's conditions are when we've seen him put in his best effort and he has only had them once in 8 starts. Has been backed nicely throughout the day too. Weld and Smullen are in their usually decent form, and hopefully it'll be the start of a nice double with my other fancy later on. :hope

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets A further 15pts on Endless Intrigue with Bet365 at 4/5. My biggest bet for some time, but feel very confident.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Day saved mainly thanks to my most confident selection, although it only just got up to win. rainbow peak -3.25 equiano -6 spin cycle -1 rule breaker -5 skysurfers +1.13 wicked daze +7.5 encompassing -10 northern rocked -10 endless intrigue +27.91 +1.29 Current Figures: Bets: 81 Staked: 201 P/L: -15.02 Yield: -13.38%

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets I've completely messed up my original staking plan. I had two in mind, and have combined them awfully here. My max bet was supposed to be 5pts, but I reverted to a staking plan I've used in the past which obviously makes no sense here. I've decided I'm going to start two fresh P/L's, one for the flat, one for the jumps, with one routine staking plan. I'd like to state that I am doing this for the sole purpose of improving my own betting, and discipline. This is no attempt to revamp a thread that is currently in loss, because I can assure you, I plan to keep this going for some time. If anyone has any objections to this, please state them here and I'll be happy to answer. I am setting my own personal rules to follow from now on. This thread has honestly opened my eyes to my weakest habbits, so I'll try ironing them out over time.

• Majority of flat bets are going to be group/listed races. Am not confident enough in reading 16 runner handicaps. This is my first year of proper flat studying, so I'm going to spend the rest of it watching in regards to tough handicaps. I do feel confident enough on the AW tracks though, and seem to read these better than I do turf.
• Flat bets, excluding group/listed, will only be at 6f, 7f, 8f, 12f and 16f. These are without doubt the distances I read best. I really struggle with the 5f sprints, and races that extend beyond the mile but are stranger distances.
• Bets will range from a 0-5pts. 5pt bets will be VERY rare.
• Overall number of bets will be reduced. Even doing this thread for just two weeks I can see I'm having far too many bets. Need to cut out studying races I'm not great at reading just for the sake of it. Often produces weak selections.

So, like I said, if anyone has any objection to me starting two fresh p/ls (one flat, one jump) please let me know. As I've said before I am not doing this to champion myself or gain recognition, it simply helps me learn further and become more disciplined. This is very much a long-term thing for me, and the fact that I've already found so many weaknesses in my betting pleases me alot. BKI.

[BillyHills]

Re: BKI's Bets Good luck with this BKI, its a steep learning curve when you first start out in this game and half the battle is to recognise your faults. Many new punters make the fatal mistake of having too many bets, the main reason for this is that they start off the day badly and end up chasing their losses for the rest of the day, that strategy can only end in tears long term.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Thanks BH. 5:20 Kempton Sagamore 1.5pt win - 4/1 (Skybet) Gosden in absolutely flying form so can't ignore one of his progressive types at this price. Won really well last time out and is now thrown into handicap company, but I think any improvement on his win lto will see him land this. Also has that winning experience on the AW, whilst some of the others don't.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:30 Yarmouth Spitfire 1pt win - 9/1 (Skybet) Spitfire is back to a mark he has won off in the past, and also put in some good efforts on this mark last year. Won readily in heavy ground when on a mark of 84, and has won on good to soft ground, so the soft ground he faces today won't be an issue, whereas there are a few question marks on the other runners. All of his wins have also been over this trip, including a win at this track a few years back.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:45 Sedgefield Pugnacity 1pt win - 4/1 (Skybet) Like the look of this one. Has won three times in his career, with all wins at this track. All have been over hurdles but her second ever chase at the course saw her finish a half length second to Ginger's Lad, off a mark of 71. She runs off 73 today and looks sure to offer more over the larger obstacles. Her course form reads 1441P12. I think this is a very poor field and Sir Bumble does look the only danger, but he had a hard race lto, was all out to win and has been raised 4lbs for that. Think he'll struggle with top weight here.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 7:20 Ffos Las Grand Slam Hero 2pt win - 8/1 (Skybet) This price looks pretty big. Won a class 1 listed handicap off a mark of 129, and since then, hasn't had a chance to show what he's capable of off a mark of 138. Has had two races since. Fell at the first in the Galway plate, which was his first ever fall over fences, so I'm willing to forgive that. It was also in a field of 22 runners. Next time out can be completely discarded. There was a fall at the first fence, and Grand Slam Hero was horribly hampered, and never in with a shout from there on so was rightly pulled up. Has done nothing but improve over fences and this mark could well still be lenient.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:20 Ffos Las Duplicity 1pt win - 12/1 (PaddyPower) Think he's overpriced here. Duplicity has not had any cut in the ground for some time, and his best 2yo form (beating Hearts of Fire in a listed race over this trip) was shown on soft. Hasn't run well this year, but like I said is yet to have any cut in the ground and this could be key. Down to a nice hanciap mark too if any of that 2yo form is still left in him.

[BillyHills]

Re: BKI's Bets Nice winner yesterday BKI:clap

[StuSimmy]

Re: BKI's Bets Well done yesterday mate :clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Thanks guys. :ok 5:20 Ffos Las Ripalong Lad 1pt win - 7/1 (PaddyPower) Think this horse is decent value here. Likely needed the run first time out, weakening quickly and finishing well beaten. Since then he's been consistent finishing up-close twice and winning lto under today's jockey Tom O'Brien. Hasn't yet run on completely soft ground but with his dam being a half-sister to Sweep Gently, who loved the mud, there's reason to believe he'll go well. Is very lightly raced for a 9yo and could still have more to offer over hurdles. Trainer is also showing a nice profit at this course.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:50 Ffos Las West With The Wind 1pt EW - 8/1 (PaddyPower) Young improver over fences and I feel he's being underrated in the market. There are worries over his soft ground credentials but was second in a two mile novices chase at Ludlow, going down by just under a length whilst also pulling 28 lengths clear of the rest of the field. Also finished second on soft ground on the flat. His sire, Fasliyev, was a high-class 2yo winning two group 1's on soft ground also. Is yet to be unplaced in six starts over fences, winning three of them, including two at this track, with the last win being franked by the runner-up in a novices' chase recently. Has got to carry top weight here but there's room for plenty of improvement and he hasn't set a foot wrong over fences as of yet. Paul Maloney is in the saddle again and has been for every chase start on this horse, and he himself is showing a decent chasing profit this year.

[puntyboy]

Re: BKI's Bets Another excellent tip. Well done BKI with west with the wind! :clap

[puntyboy]

Re: BKI's Bets My god BKI thats unreal tipping. 2/2 at big prices.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Cheers mate! :ok Really like West with the wind. Think the winning distance flattered the runner-up, because he idles out in front, but finds more. Looking forward to seeing where he goes next. Only a 5yo, and had to carry 11-12 today. Was surprised at how easily Ripalong Lad won, think he'll be hit quite hard for that and might struggle nto.

[RussP]

Re: BKI's Bets Great stuff lately mate, well done indeed:nana

[StuSimmy]

Re: BKI's Bets Two nice winners today mate, I strongly fancied West With The Wind myself but totally forgot about it, cracking price as well.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Bets

Was surprised at how easily Ripalong Lad won' date=' think he'll be hit quite hard for that and might struggle nto.[/quote'] He will soon go over fences imo. I followed him twice and then stopped for the 2 wins :sad

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Will be a nice prospect over fences, travels well and hasn't jumped badly at all. 2:30 Goodwood Golden Sword 1pt win - 7/1 (PaddyPower) Think Golden Sword is a good price here. Ran well lto against better horses upped in trip. Takes a drop in class here. Has won on the ground so that won't be an issue, but the price is good enough to overcome doubts about him staying the trip. Spencer is riding pretty well and the stable's last three horses have resulted in two wins and a place.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:30 Beverley Captain Dunne - 1pt EW - 7/1 (PaddyPower) Backed this one lto, thought he ran a really good race behind Hamish Mcgonagall. Didn't get the best of runs through and had to switch, but ran on well. Is always there or thereabouts in these contests and is rated top on official figures. Think he is quite a big price at 7/1 in this field, and although the draw is a negative, it seems worth the risk. If he can get his early position he'll be a big player.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Flat Bets: 3 Staked: 3.5 P/L: -3.5 Jumps Bets: 4 Staked: 6 P/L: +31.6 Good start on the jumps but must not get carried away. Have only focused on the better jumps races and have fared well so that's a good sign. Pugnacity finished second and looked to have the race in the bag before Archie's Wish, a horse with no form at all, took it up on the run-in. Was well backed during the day and it was on chase debut, but you'd have done well to have picked it out. Here's hoping the flat bets for today can put me into profit in that sphere.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:20 Goodwood Wedding March 1pt EW - 12/1 (paddypower) Willing to give this filly another chance with Godolphin in strong form. Was well backed on seasonal debut in a listed race when disappointing badly, tailing off. Obviously wasn't her true running and it was her first outing. Was then upped to 1m4f and weakened rapidly at the business end. Wasn't sure to stay and probably didn't. Is much more suited at today's distance and with two runs under her belt and Godolphin in good form she looks decent value. Although she's unraced on soft she is bred to love it, so that could be a massive factor.