BKI's Bets

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 6:35 Newmarket Frankel 1pt win - 6/4 (VC) Usually avoid maidens but like the reports about this one. Closely related to Bullet Train who also won on his 2yo debut. Has got some high class decs including the RP Trophy and next year's Derby. Obviously not much else to go on but if he lives up to yard reports he should be good enough to score on debut.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Frankel won nicely on debut in quite testing conditions, pulled clear of the field with Nathanial, the other market leader. Made smooth progress and was back on the bridle during the last furlong, needing to be pushed out to see off the challenge. Can't wait to see this one in better conditions. +1.5 Current Figures: Bets: 24 Staked: 30 P/L: +19.79 Yield: +65.96% Tomorrow will be one complete week, never expected to be in such decent profit. Long may it continue! :)

[puntyboy]

Re: BKI's Bets Again well done BKI. Keep em coming! :clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Cheers pal. Let's hope I can round off the week with 20pts profit. 6:40 Market Rasen Mission Control 3pt win - 5/4 (Skybet) Short price but I still feel it's value. If Mission Control can translate hurdling ability to the bigger obstacles he should win this quite comfortably. Of course it doesn't always work like that but it's obviously factored into the price. His market rival in this three-runner affair is Frankie Anson, who hasn't had the best of it lately. Although winning quite easily over a weak field on soft ground back in October, he really struggled at Haydock in the same conditions, making several mistakes and finishing a well beaten third (out of 4) 74 lengths behind the winner. Looked out of his league last time out also, against an average field. Think he'll come up short here too.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:30 Newbury Golden Sword 0.5pts EW - 25/1 (PaddyPower) Think Golden Sword is overpriced today. Had a very good 3yo season last year. Won on his second outing of the season in a group 3, at the same price as today, making all to see off stablemate favourite Masterofthehorse. Finished close up in the Epsom Derby, and then best of the rest in the Irish Derby. Didn't run a great race in the KG but I'm always willing to let a horse off a bad run at Ascot. Went out to Meydan and didn't have a great time, finishing well down the field twice. Did run one good race, behind Campanologist at 11/2, but that price isn't worth risking the inconsistency. First outing this year came at Glorious Goodwood, finishing a 12 length last to Redwood in the Group 3 Cloutts Glorious Stakes. Perfectly acceptable racetrack return after a long absence. Has the ability to run on all kinds of ground and tends to be a horse that surprises you rather than living upto high expectation. Richard Hughes is a nice booking and I wouldn't be surprised if he caused an upset here.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:05 Newbury Himalya 1pt win - 5/1 (William Hills) Himalya has been running consistently well in handicaps carrying high weights this year, but I think today's race is shaping up really well for him. Has contested in one group race, finishing second when sent off 15/8 favourite, but I'm pretty sure that 7f is his better trip rather than the 6f that day. He finished a staying on second. I'd actually like to see him step up to a mile but I'm sure that'll come. Has been desperately unlucky in three handicaps carrying a lot of weight and finishing less than a length behind the winner on all three occasions (2nd x2 and 3rd x1). I still believe there's improvement to come from this horse, especially if stepping up in trip. However, a first group race at 7f should suit perfectly, and there are a lot of out of form horses in the line-up. Murtagh is on board and shows a 47% strike-rate when riding Noseda's 4 and overs, with 7 wins in 15 rides.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Golden Sword and Himalya both finished 4th running good races. To me Golden Sword may have been stretching his stamina a big too far here, in good conditions he probably would have fared better. He was well backed and went off at 11/1. Winner did it well though. Himalya definitely needs his step up in trip and I'll be backing him when he gets it. Never nice to win because of a fall, but that's how Mission Control got his nose in front. Would have had to battle it out for second had Frankie Anson not fallen when in the lead coming to the last. However, as I pointed out, he is a sketchy jumper, and that's what cost him. Mission Control is definitely one to oppose if this short again. Golden Sword -1 Himalya -1 Mission Control +3.75 Total +1.75 So, one week gone. Never thought I'd be in this much profit, so I won't get too excited, as I could easily lose the same amount during a losing run. Current Figures: Bets: 27 Staked: 35 P/L: +21.54 Yield: +61.54%

[diamond1924]

Re: BKI's Bets You did very well to get on Mission Control at 5/4 but I guess you must have been sweating a bit a few out. I had to laugh when I heard the woman scream with joy when the lead horse fell at the last, thought that was a bit unclassy :) Frankel looked a serious horse on Friday night, think that'll be one for the future without doubt.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Yeah the sound was awful on RUK. Was wondering what all that screaming was, only realised on second viewing. :lol 2:40 Deauville Fuisse 0.5 pts EW - 10/1 (VC) Looks a very good race this. Paco Boy, Makfi and Goldikova are the other standouts. Can't have Goldikova at those odds, she is an absolutely brilliant horse but has been beaten at very short odds in the past, and I don't make 8/13 any sort of value here. Makfi is taking his chance against the older horses, coming off a disappointing run in the St James' Palace stakes at Royal Ascot. He didn't run to form and didn't have much luck in running, and is definitely open to any amount of improvement, but at 8/1 he is not a value bet for me. Paco Boy got to within a neck of Goldikova last time out, so most will expect these two to fight out the finish here. I dare say the form flatters Paco Boy, as Goldikova may have been idling. To be fair, she did seem to have a bit in hand. 2/1 is definitely not value, especially with the very soft ground coming into play. My selection Fuisse has run four times this season, with his only loss being on seasonal debut behind Byword, which is no disgrace at all. As a 3yo he finished second in the French Derby but a mile does seem to be his optimum trip. Has mopped up a listed race and two group 3's since his debut this season, with the last being the most impressive, quickening clear of the field to win by 4 lengths. Same jockey is on board (2/2 on this horse) and I'll be disappointed if he doesn't manage to finish in the top three. Sneaky feeling he might even give the wonder-mare a run for her money. ;)

[Lars]

Re: BKI's Bets

Frankel looked a serious horse on Friday night, think that'll be one for the future without doubt.

Sorry to interject... Frankel is Cecil's "2nd best 2yo" I've been reliably informed (I don't know which horse is better!). There was some doubt about him acting on that sort of ground (hence why he drifted on course I reckon) but to win in that well, he's surely a Group class performer.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:10 Pontefract Ejteyaaz 1pt EW - 11/1 (Skybet) Think this horse has a massive chance today. Has given his best run this year over this trip, and off a higher handicap mark (82). Since then he has been upped in trip and hasn't liked it, finishing well beaten on three occasions. Seasonal debut came over 5f which is definitely on the sharp side. He finished last, however probably needed that. As I said before, shaped with promise on first start over a mile next time out, finishing second by a head. Has won on soft ground and has run well on heavy (as well as going well in good conditions) so if there is any cut in the ground it won't be a problem. There are quite a few horses in this race that might want the lead, so we could see a decent pace put on, which will also play into the hands of my selection, who is always held-up. The in-form Hanigan is on board which is a bonus.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Another two fourth place finishes today. Fuisse was out of his depth in hindsight. Didn't take the step-up I'd expected. Makfi was really impressive. Ejteyaaz ran a decent race and will definitely score off of a slightly lower mark. Fuisse -1 Ejteyaaz -2 Current Figures: Bets: 29 Staked: 38 P/L: +18.54 Yield: +48.78%

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 4:00 Kempton Mass Rally 1.5pt win - 3/1 (Bet365) Going with the in-form Gosden to take this. Have this race between Mass Rally and Kakatosi. They've met once previously and Kakotosi got the better by a head, but Mass Rally was conceding weight on that occasion. It was also his seasonal debut. He then followed that up by finishing fourth in a class two handicap at Ascot, less than two lengths behind the winner. That was over a mile, which possibly stretched his stamina, as he took up the running close home, but weakened in the final furlong. All his best form has been over 7f, and he is a Kempton winner, so holds every chance today. Will want a good pace to come late with a strong run, and should get that today with a few definite front-runners in the line up.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 3:15 Wolves Ivory Silk 0.5pts EW - 16/1 (VC) Think Ivory Silk is the value here. Is rated 14lbs better on the AW than on turf, and her efforts against superior opposition this year have been credible. Today she is in company of a lower standard and is on what is in my opinion a lenient mark of 86. One thing to consider is that she has been off the track for a few months, but looking over her career she does seem to run well when fresh, so I don't see that being a massive problem. Luke Morris is on board and rides Wolves well.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Two below par runs there. Kicking myself for not having a saver on Kakatosi when drifted out to 15/2, but oh well. 5:00 Kempton Al Khimiya 2pt win - 3/1 (VC) This horse has run 5 times at Kempton winning 4 and finishing 5th on the other occasion. She has won on today's mark and is probably worth a few more at Kempton, where she always puts her best foot forward. Last few runs on turf haven't been too bad, only finishing a few lengths behind the winners. Lenkiewicz is the only other horse in the race to have raced on the AW, and he was a well beaten 8th at this track, but over a mile. 3/1 is a fair price for a horse certain to enjoy the conditions with question marks over the others.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Further 0.5pt win at 9/2 with Skybet. Think this price is good for a course specialist with every chance today.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Not my day today, Al Khimiya pulled up as soon as leaving the stalls. :(

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

7:10 Windsor Rule Breaker 0.5pt EW - 11/1 (Skybet) Chica Whopa 0.25pt EW - 16/1 (VC) Each-way value to be had in this race, with what is in my opinion, an awful odds on shot. Rule Breaker is another lightly raced horse. Was probably given a handicap mark a little out of his league and has naturally come down from the original 88 to now sit on 81. This contest is a lot easier than the handicaps he has participated in lately, so a big run could well be on the cards. The ground and trip are fine, and Dettori is a notable booking. Chica Whopa is also very lightly raced, and like Rule Breaker, was slightly out of his league last time out. The step up to a mile looks sure to suit on breeding and 16/1 for a Hannon horse with Hughes on board looks great considering the potential for improvement.

7:10 Windsor Chica Whopa 1pt EW - 12/1 (Skybet) Last bet of the day for me will be Chica Whopa, who I backed last time out when doing nothing wrong behind Lost In the Moment. Still open to improvement and may be able to offer a lot more at the current handicap mark, so the price is well worth taking for me in this average handicap.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Chica Whopa ran a good race finishing second. Going to keep following that one because I'm sure it'll go in soon. Bad day today, but have a couple of bets lined up for the big meeting tomorrow which will hopefully turn things around this week. Mass Rally -1.5 Ivory Silk -1 Al Khimiya -2.5 Chica Whopa +1.4 -3.6 Current Figures: Bets: 34 Staked: 45 P/L: +14.94 Yield: +33.2%

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Getting on this now just incase the price gets smashed into tomorrow, which I have a feeling it might. 3:25 York Rip Van Winkle 5pt win - 2/1 (William Hill) My first max bet of the flat season. Rip has had two runs this season, clearly needing it first time out, and then running a cracker behind Canford Cliffs. Ballydole are adamant that more improvement is to come this season, and two runs should have put him spot on for this. He has only ever run once at 10f, giving Sea The Stars a scare in the Eclipse, and if he can run anywhere near this form he should thrash this field. If Dick Turpin can stay the extra 2f he'll be a massive danger, but his sire hasn't managed to sire a horse to win beyond 9f. Very interesting that O'Brien only has the one horse here, too. I think Rip has been laid out for this and the price currently on offer is huge.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:50 York Rewilding 3pt win - 9/4 (William Hill) Another short-priced favourite for me at York, but think he holds very strong claims. It has been widely reported that he never handled the track at Epsom, so in that respect he did very well to finish third coming from the back. Over in France he ran a cracking race behind Planteur, who then went on to finish second in the French Derby behind Lope De Vega, and then second behind Behkabad in the Juddmonte Grand Prix De Paris, five lengths ahead of Jan Vermeer. That form is the best on offer in this race, and with York being a nice flat track, it should suit Rewilding perfectly. His English debut was a comfortable 4 length win over Prizefighting, but that could have easily been 10 lengths. He handles all types of ground, winning on both heavy and good ground. Godolphin are shooting back to top form, so I'm hoping he's going to be in top shape for this, and then a crack at the St Leger.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2/1 about RPW all gone, 15/8 is best price right now. Think it'll go off shorter still. 1:45 York Captain Dunne 1pt EW - 16/1 (VC) Think Captain Dunne is massive value here. Will need to carry a big weight compared to a lot of these but is a class sprinter and is always there or thereabouts in big handicap sprints. Was only 2l behind Borderlescott last time out in a group 2, and has beaten him off level weights this year when just nailed on the line in a listed contest. His win this year came in a race similar to this also. Disappointed in the Epsom dash (second in 2009), but was slowly away, something he doesn't normally do which you can forgive. Has won on most types of ground and has put up some very decent performances at York, so you can expect a bold showing.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

Getting on this now just incase the price gets smashed into tomorrow, which I have a feeling it might. 3:25 York Rip Van Winkle 5pt win - 2/1 (William Hill) My first max bet of the flat season. Rip has had two runs this season, clearly needing it first time out, and then running a cracker behind Canford Cliffs. Ballydole are adamant that more improvement is to come this season, and two runs should have put him spot on for this. He has only ever run once at 10f, giving Sea The Stars a scare in the Eclipse, and if he can run anywhere near this form he should thrash this field. If Dick Turpin can stay the extra 2f he'll be a massive danger, but his sire hasn't managed to sire a horse to win beyond 9f. Very interesting that O'Brien only has the one horse here, too. I think Rip has been laid out for this and the price currently on offer is huge.

Will have a 0.5pt EW saver on Cavalryman at 20/1 with Skybet. Missed the bigger prices on offer earlier, but would be silly to let this one go with the stable in such great form. Not to mention the fact that if he runs close to the form he showed last year, he'll be bang in contention. 20's is still too big.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Also going to add 0.25pts EW on Cutless Bay (33/1, Skybet). :lol Fallon is in brilliant form at the moment, and again it's a Godolphin horse who'll handle the ground. Has beaten Cavalryman previously too.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 2:15 York Rigolleto 0.5pts EW - 25/1 (PaddyPower) Hard to weigh up these contests with little form to go on, but I think Rigolleto is overpriced here. Won making all last time out, and showed a good attitude to battle out the finish with Profondo Rosso. A few of the horses in behind him that day hold group entries, so some of the horses he beat that day are obviously highly thought of. Hughes takes the ride for Channon, who is in good form at the moment. Any cut in the ground is also going to help, as his win at Chester was on GS ground. Big price for an unexposed horse who has a good attitude, likes the going and who's trainer is in form.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets

2:50 York Rewilding 3pt win - 9/4 (William Hill) Another short-priced favourite for me at York, but think he holds very strong claims. It has been widely reported that he never handled the track at Epsom, so in that respect he did very well to finish third coming from the back. Over in France he ran a cracking race behind Planteur, who then went on to finish second in the French Derby behind Lope De Vega, and then second behind Behkabad in the Juddmonte Grand Prix De Paris, five lengths ahead of Jan Vermeer. That form is the best on offer in this race, and with York being a nice flat track, it should suit Rewilding perfectly. His English debut was a comfortable 4 length win over Prizefighting, but that could have easily been 10 lengths. He handles all types of ground, winning on both heavy and good ground. Godolphin are shooting back to top form, so I'm hoping he's going to be in top shape for this, and then a crack at the St Leger.

Going to have a 0.5pt win saver on Monterosso with Skybet at 8/1. Has had nearly a month to recover from the two Derbys and Johnston is sure he didn't give his true running in either. Destroyed the field at Royal Ascot, including Buzzword who was 5 lengths behind. He then improved to win the German Derby easily when Monterosso didn't get his way, so the form is good. 8/1 is too big if ready for this today.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Had a cracking day so far at the York meeting with the two big punts going in. One more for the afternoon meets. 4:40 York Splinter Cell 0.5pt EW - 25/1 (Skybet) Last few runs have been on the AW, but goes equally well on turf, handling all sorts of ground it seems. His last two runs have been off this handicap mark, and they've been perfectly acceptable. They've been at trips just under today's trip of 10f, and the way he has been running on in the final furlong suggests that he might want to be pushed back up to today's trip, which he has won on in the past. Lightly raced and possibly still progressive, will be interesting to see how he fares on turf after running only on AW this year, and having a bit of time out. He does appear to go well fresh, so that might be an advantage. Buick takes the ride and I'm a fan of his so that's a positive in my eyes.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 5:40 Worcester Le Brocquy 0.5pt EW - 13/2 (Bet365) Think Le Brocquy represents some good value in this handicap chase. Finished third on first ever chase start last time out behind King Ozzy on unsuitably soft ground. Should be able to come on for that run and now has conditions in her favour. Although she did register one decent performance on soft ground back in early 09, she looks very much suited to good ground now. Is still only 5 years old so open to improvement over fences and worth backing here. Don't know a great deal about the trainer, but has a 3/12 record in chases this year showing a nice profit, and the jockey, Derham, is also showing profit riding for this trainer this year.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets 6:50 Kempton Miss Clairton 2pts win - 5/6 (Bluesqure) I backed this one each-way on debut and typically watched run green in rear to then thunder home to finish fourth. Have completley missed it since and it's gone in twice, last time out being the most impressive at 6/1, winning by an eased down 7 lengths. The main market rival, Byrony, has won two on the trot but they look very poor races to me. Four runner race and the others don't appear t be front-runners, so Miss Clairton could get to control the race from start to finish.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Bets Rip Van Winkle +10 Ran a cracker, didn't look the winner a furlong out but ran on strongly to lead in the last strides. Hopefully will come on again for that run. Rewilding +6.75 Won very easily beating Midas Touch by 4l. Joshua Tree caught the eye travelling equally as well as Rewilding but lacking the finishing kick. That was his first run for a long time and is sure to come on from that. Captain Dunne -2 Ran with a lot of credit to finish 5th, close up. Will hopefully get it's head in front at a big price soon enough. Cavalryman -1 Finished just outside the placings but was well beaten by the top three horses. Not sure he'll ever reproduce form of last year. Cutless Bay -0.5 Wasn't good enough. Rigolleto -1 Wasn't good enough. Had every chance. Monterosso -0.5 Never travelled with any fluency and had Fallon working on him from a long way out. Not too sure where he'll go now. Splinter cell -1 Didn't factor but the long lay-off was factored into price. Will closely watch this one. Le Brocquy -1 Very odd ride on this one. Held up as usual, but was never ridden with any sort of intent, and for some reason given a very easy ride. Never factored whatsoever. Miss Clairton -2 Disappointed with this one. Finished second behind Byrony who I didn't think would improve enough. Perhaps not suited by Kempton. Total +7.75 Current Figures: Bets: 44 Staked: 62 P/L: +22.69 Yield: +36.59%