Grand National 2010

[billy the punter]

Re: Grand National 2010

Good point about My Will's last start Billy, hadn't realised it was only 8 days between the two runs. I'd still be a bit worried hasn't run since (after not running in 07/08 season) makes me wonder if there's something wrong. Having said that, 40/1 does look too big even so. Although you could say the 3rd was "below form", think he would've done better last year with a more conventional pace from Beecher's. May be the price is more to do with being Nicholls 3rd string (no reason at all). I wouldn't lay 40/1 and is one of the outsiders to think about. Believe Aintree experience is important unless it's a particularly good jumper. Niche Market is the best jumper in the field so does not need experience. :ok

Although it's likely to freshen him up, the break is a worry I agree. However given he made the latest GC stage I thought that even if he did have a problem, he must be on the way back at least. Like I said last year, I cannot stress how much the pace slowed after Becher's - and it's something that has been pretty much ignored. I thought Comply Or Die and My Will were the biggest sufferers of the stop-start pace. I looked carefully at the 1-2-3-4 of last year, but given those reasons I thought My Will was a bet at 40/1, albeit a tentative one. Also re Niche Market, I wouldn't be worried either, he has won a "national". Although thouse fences cannot be compared to Aintee, at least it's some level of experience - a lot of winners who hadn't had Aintree experience had other national experience (the Irish and Twister winners). :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010 Not heard the slowing of pace mentioned anywhere else but yourself Billy. Great work. :ok It was indeed a big influence. Sadly for me, as I backed both Comply Or Die and My Will (both win only). :lol Not that it made any difference to the winner (despite 100/1 SP) who's a real stayer anyway. Just that second and third would've been further clear of the others. Cerium greatly flattered.

[fintron]

Re: Grand National 2010 A couple of recent movers. Big Fella Thanks now into 10/1 fav. Arbor Supreme into 25/1 after recent second in Ire. Ballytrim into 33/1 (but backable at 190.0 Betfair) after winning today at Naas with Rare Bob back in third

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010 12/1 Big Fella Thanks was available with Ladbrokes earlier today. Took a bit of it myself. Don't know why Laddies aren't quoting prices at the moment. If you want some 12's ring and ask them.:ok Arbour Supreme should've won the other day, given a tremendous amount to do. Encouraging run, know you've always liked him Fin, are you on?

[fintron]

Re: Grand National 2010 yes ginge backed him at prices ranging from 40.0 to 50.0 back in november. To be honest, i wrote him off once the weights had come out and his recent effort came as a pleasant surprise. Ive long felt he was well handicapped, but started to think he wasnt ready to capitalise so had further bets on dream alliance and big fella thanks (20/1). Also got further bets on niche market (28.0) and hello bud (40/1) as well as a few pence (rest of bet unmatched) on gone to lunch at 160.0.. Cant decide whether to back tricky trickster, as i think he will run well in the gold cup, but not sure how he will do in a national?

[fintron]

Re: Grand National 2010 oh, also backed offshore account (whoops) and snowy morning, but arbor supreme, big fella, dream alliance are the three main bets in that order.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand National 2010

Ballytrim into 33/1 (but backable at 190.0 Betfair) after winning today at Naas with Rare Bob back in third

Price at Betfair reflects his chance of getting into the final 40. Will be quite hard off his mark I would imagine.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010 I am pretty sure you get your money back if the horse is ballotted out Mileni.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Grand National 2010 Really looking forward to the National this year. Can McCoy grab his first winner of the race? Will Mon Mome do a rummy? NTD going for a Gold Cup/National double what a feat that would be. Indeed all exciting stuff and i think one of the above may very well happen i hope it does. My bets so far are this one from the national weights thread :- 21-02-2010, 17:34 #39 (permalink) tedthewolf Re: Grand National Weights Talking of Stan James they go a very generous 33/1 on MON MOME at this stage imo. Should go well and has a fair chance to make it back to back wins since the legend RUMMY. I,ll have some 33's e/w. ....and tonight i backed IRISH RAPORT 40/1 E/W with SJ 1/4 1-4 as i think this price will go shortly. The trainer thinks the National will suit IP an he goes well at the track and won the Topham last year. Ran a well in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter the previous year. Should get in the race ok and with the stable making the right noises the 40's won't last and i'm happy to take a chance and back it now, a strong contender along with Mon Mome i think. Also had a very small e/w on last years Scotish National winner HELLO BUD 50 e/w 1/4 1-5 PP may well lead for a long while trying to do a Lord Gyllene. No more bets for me till the eve of the race that if i have anymore.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Grand National 2010 Really surprised IRISH RAPPORT is still available at 40's slightly less on BF. I have gone in again e/w with SJ who are with a run @ 40's which is way to good to miss imo. I'm convinced this horse will go off at least 1/2 this price. Has stable jock booked Paddy Brennan. http://www.racingpost.com/news/festival.sd?story=698523&f_type=GN

[League1_punter]

Re: Grand National 2010 I'm guessing you mean Irish Raptor? I'm very suprised at these odds aswell. I placed a bet on Irish Raptor at 40/1 in November expecting the odds to have decreased significantally, yet you can still get the exact same odds just over a week away.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Grand National 2010

I'm guessing you mean Irish Raptor? I'm very suprised at these odds aswell. I placed a bet on Irish Raptor at 40/1 in November expecting the odds to have decreased significantally' date=' yet you can still get the exact same odds just over a week away.[/quote'] Yep thats the one speling was never my strong point. I've gone in again and expect to get the option to lay off at shorter if i so wish :hope

[bowles10]

Re: Grand National 2010

Yep thats the one speling was never my strong point. I've gone in again and expect to get the option to lay off at shorter if i so wish :hope

i suppose there is a chance it could run on one of the other days, think it won or ran well last year so may go for same race again? If its NRNB fair enough

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Grand National 2010

i suppose there is a chance it could run on one of the other days, think it won or ran well last year so may go for same race again? If its NRNB fair enough

Only entered up for the National which trainer has stated its his main hope in the race and Paddy Brennan has chosen to ride it over all other stable entries. Stan James are 40's NRNB.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010 Irish Raptor has struggled every time he's raced beyond 3m2f and barely gets that distance. Soft going will place an even bigger emphasis on stamina. Jumped Aintree fences far better than he has other courses; but fell (didn't get far) in the latest Becher. Whether he will be as good jumping them again is also open to question. Save your money, he is (imo) not value at current prices. Sam Twister has been on Hello Bud the last 3 runs, so he's been lined up for the mount for some time. Brenan may not have been offered the mount. I'd take Hello Bud in a match bet with Irish Raptor any day.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Grand National 2010

Irish Raptor has struggled every time he's raced beyond 3m2f and barely gets that distance. Soft going will place an even bigger emphasis on stamina. Jumped Aintree fences far better than he has other courses; but fell (didn't get far) in the latest Becher. Whether he will be as good jumping them again is also open to question. Save your money, he is (imo) not value at current prices. Sam Twister has been on Hello Bud the last 3 runs, so he's been lined up for the mount for some time. Brenan may not have been offered the mount. I'd take Hello Bud in a match bet with Irish Raptor any day.

The young lad isn't deffo to get the ride on HB as he hasn't rode enough winners however he can be granted the ride by the BHA. Stable are a waiting the outcome of that so who is say BB would not have got the offer of the ride. IRISH RAPORT has not been right all season but this has been its main target and all seems to be starting to come together from what the stable say and trainer has high hope so would indicate that horse will be able to cope with the trip and the fact stable jock has chosen it. I think 40/1 a week before the race with NRNB is super value as i have said i think it will be very much shorter. I am very happy to part with my cash thanks. I have also backed HELLO BUD but feel it may struggle to lead from start to finish like Lord Gyllene did and he had a very good expreniced jock in Dobbs on top.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Grand National 2010 I just stick with backing jockeys in this race rather than horses as the race is all down to pure chance, 1st time round you need 100% luck. My top 3 jockeys in the race are. The champ AP McCoy i wish he could bag this race. Joe Tizzard Paddy Brennan Its a good race to watch but a lotto.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010

I just stick with backing jockeys in this race rather than horses as the race is all down to pure chance, 1st time round you need 100% luck. My top 3 jockeys in the race are. The champ AP McCoy i wish he could bag this race. Joe Tizzard Paddy Brennan Its a good race to watch but a lotto.

The more punters who believe that, the more value there is for us form students.:ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010 The truth about age trends and The Grand National In the last 20 years of the Grand National (1989-2009 and not including the void 1993) there's been 760 runners. Of those 760 runners: 6yo 0 wins(0%), 7yo 0 wins (0%), 8yo 2 wins (10% of those 20 wins), 9yo 6 wins (30%), 10yo 5 wins (25%), 11yo 4 wins (20%), 12yo 3 wins (15%), 13yo 0 wins (0%), 14yo 0 wins (0%). However, of those 760 runners: 10 (1.32% of the total runners) were 6 year olds, 28 (3.68%) were 7 year olds 100 (13.16%) were 8, 191 (25.13%) 9 182 (23.95%) 10 150 (19.74%) 11 70 (9.21%) 12 25 (3.29%) 13 4 (0.53%) 14 So with 6 year olds, if everything was fair, you could expect them to win 0 of those 20 (0.0132 x 20 = 0.264). They won none. You could expect between 0 and 1 winner to be 7 year olds (0.0368 x 20 = 0.736). None were 7 year olds. You could expect between 2 and 3 winner to be 8 year olds (0.1316 x 20 = 2.632). 2 winners were 8 year olds. You could expect around 5 winners to be 9 year olds (0.2513 x 20 = 5.026). 6 were 9 year olds. Around 5 winners to be 10 year olds (0.2395 x 20 = 4.79). 5 were 10 year olds. Around 4 winners to be 11 year olds (0.1974 x 20 = 3.948). 4 were 11 year olds. Around 2 winners to be 12 year olds (0.0921 x 20 = 1.842). 3 were 12 year olds. Between 0 and 1 winners to be 13 year olds (0.0329 x 20 = 0.658). 0 were 13 year olds. Around 0 14 year olds (0.0053 x 20 = 0.106). 0 were 14 year olds. It can be seen that 9 year olds and 12 year olds have a slightly better (only by about 1 winner) record than can be expected. What about the record of age groups to be placed in the first 5 in those 20 years? One year only 4 runners finished, so there were 99 placings in 20 years. Of those 99: 0 were 6yo (0%), You could expect 1.32% 0 were 7 yo (0%), You could expect 3.62% 18 were 8yo (18% of the 99 placed), expected 13.16% 29 were 9 yo (29%), expected 25.13% 19 were 10yo (19%), expected 23.95% 24 were 11yo (24%), expected 19.74% 8 were 12yo (8%), expected 9.21% 1 was 13yo (1%), expected 3.29% 0 were 14yo (0%), expected 0.53% 8, 9 and 11 year olds have a slightly better record of placing than you'd expect. In contrast to the winners record, 12 year olds (along with 10 year olds have a slightly worse record than could be expected. Conclusion: It could be argued the best age is 9 years old. They may well have the right blend of experience and possibility of improvement for the race. However, this “advantage” is so small, to base a selection process on it would be foolish. 6 and 7 year olds may not have the required experience. However, the sample is so small that one winner in this group would turn them from being a bad age to a good age. Therefore, again to rule out this age group on age alone would be foolish. 13 and 14 year olds also don't have poor records which could change with just one win. The 13 year old to place was 5^th in the 6 finisher 1994 race. It is fairly obvious these age groups are often on the downgrade and so less likely to produce a winner. 12 year olds don't have the poor record some seem to think, with a higher percentage winning than could be expected. The place record being slightly less, suggests the good win performance could be a coincidence. Either way, being a 12 year old should not be regarded as a disadvantage.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Grand National 2010 A friend of mine talking to WP mullins,he says snowy morning has huge chance in national..anyone any thoughts??:cow

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010 I'd say Snowy Morning was one of the best handicapped horses in the race this year. Been dropped 9 lbs from last year (never right at any stage that season). Only 2 lbs higher than when chasing home Comply Or Die in 3rd. That proves he stays. Last time out was placed over a rediculously short trip of 2m1f. Looking out of it two out but staying on well. Trouble is his jumping. Despite his two clearances at Aintree, he isn't the best of jumpers (best round of jumping when 3rd in 08). He's also looked a little temperamental elsewhere, but has done nothing wrong at Aintree. All in all the price is worth the risk of his jumping though would not make him a main bet. Taken a saver at 25's, think he's possibly the best of the Irish.

[Blair Boy]

Re: Grand National 2010

I just stick with backing jockeys in this race rather than horses as the race is all down to pure chance, 1st time round you need 100% luck. My top 3 jockeys in the race are. The champ AP McCoy i wish he could bag this race. Joe Tizzard Paddy Brennan Its a good race to watch but a lotto.

For McCoy to have a realistic chance of winning the National he would need access to a more varied choice which is unlikely while he is still under a retainer to JP McManus.

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand National 2010 Agree with Ginge re: irish raptor's stamina issues but Twiston Davies seems quite confident about him and you'd have to think he knows better than us? racecourse evidence suggests he wont stay the trip though and again like Ginge, i'd rather have Hello Bud on my side who is a proven stayer. In my National thread on the ATR systems forum I have some money to play with until the antepost market closes on Thursday. The ones i'm considering are highlighted below, which is a cut and paste from that thread. I'd say Snowy Morning and Vic Venturi are my favourites at the moment. Any thoughts and suggestions welcome :ok

Snowy Morning has a big chance. 3rd in this off 145 a couple of years ago, giving Comply or Die 4lb's and beaten 5 lengths. Spent most of the following season with a sky high mark, which he found tough, none more than in the 2009 National off 11 stone 8. Again, he completed the course but finished a distant 8th. This year has seen his mark drop to a more manageable 147, not necessarily through anything the horse has done wrong - he has been running at shorter trips and acquitting himself well. He has a great weight, is very consistent, has completed the Grand National course 2/2 and looks a contender to me.

State of Play is another who has experience over the National fences. Finished a good 4^th last year off a mark of 150. Is now rated 145, the same mark off which he won the Hennessy in 2006. The stable have been pretty open about protecting his mark for another go at the National and if he gets there in one piece, after his injury issue, which explained his lacklustre run in the Hennessy, he will be a market leader. Although recent winners of this race have had a prep run within a couple of months before the race, it is clear that State of Play runs best when fresh so this shouldn’t be counted as a negative.

Vic Venturi has all the credentials to run a big race. 11 stone 6 would normally be prohibitive to me having a bet but I think there is a big chance the weight trend could be busted this year. The first 4 home last year carried 11 stone or more and if Mon Mome is top weight this year then over half the field could be carrying 11 stone plus including most of the market leaders.

Putting that issue to one side, he looks an improved horse this year and has won his last 3 outings over fences, one of which was in the Becher chase over the National fences. Last time out he won the Bobbyjo chase over 3m1f staying on well to beat stablemate and fellow GN hopeful Black Apalachi with subsequent winner One Cool Cookie, a distance back in 3^rd. He is in form, jumps the fences and despite the big weight, is actually 4 lbs well in after his last victory. With plenty of stamina in his pedigree a big run looks assured.

Big Fella Thanks Ran a great race last year as a novice to finish 6th and with another year under his belt should progress from that. He has less weight than last year and should run well.

Maljimar -He caught my eye at the Festival last year, getting caught on the line by Witchita Lineman in the WH Chase, usually a good pointer for Grand National hopefuls. He has stamina in his pedigree being a half brother to Nil Desperandum, who was favourite for this race a couple of years ago befor ehe was tragically killed. Last time out Maljimar ran a decent race over 31f, finishing 3rd of 16 beaten 3 lengths by Garde Champetre. He has a lot going for him

Arbor Supreme – I have my doubts as to whether he is good enough but he seems like the trends pick this year so I’ll include him.

Ollie Magern has slipped to a more realistic weight now and showed signs of form in the WH Chase at Cheltenham, finishing a strong finishing 7^th. Fits most of the trends, has stamina, was classy in his day and is now more realistically treated. There are worse 200/1 shots about than him.

Dream Alliance would have to be considered if it came up soft after his Welsh National win earlier in the season.

Eric’s Charm – In the form of his life and is another big priced runner who meets a lot of the trends. I’m doubtful as to whether he has the class to win this – he hasn’t won a class 1 race yet so will probably avoid hin. I already have him covered so don’t think I’ll be topping up.

I’ll just add Ollie Magern for now and put some more thought into the others in the coming fortnight. I need to wait for weather conditions really – it looks like a lot of rain is forecast so it could come up soft.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010 AK, Vic Venturi stays 3m2f well enough, but does he stay further? Why was he unplaced at two attempts at 3m5f in the Irish National? There may be a perfectly good reason, but it does make you think. The Becher he won was a poor race, form has not worked out. Might have beaten a load of out of form horses in the Bobbyjo. Black Appalachi was outpaced in that race before staying on to be beaten only 8 lengths and now 5lbs better off. VV did travel well through the race, just wonder if BA will be the better suited by the trip.

[jtw1]

Re: Grand National 2010 7 stats which may help narrow down the field . 1- Although usually the weight limit is 11:00 and under , as has been pointed out elsewhere , it looks like there will be no horses running from out of the Handicap again this year so if MADISON DU BERLAIS [11:10] stands his ground i would consider ALL those under him and MON MOME [only RED RUM has won back-to-back wins since the war] 2- Eliminate those who have not shown any winning form at 3m+ - a fairly obvious statement imo. 3- Ignore those who have not ran for 50 days - recent racecourse fitness appears to be vital. 4- Ignore those who have ran 3 times or under this season or over 6. - Those in between are usually the ones who have been specifically aimed at the race. 5- Must be aged between 8-12 - you have to go back to 1940 for a 7yo winner and 1923 for a teenage victor 6- Eliminate all those who have fallen MORE than twice in their career - yes Mon Mome unseated his rider a few times in his career but IN GENERAL you need a safe conveyance . 7- Stick to those around 33/1 or Under in the market , ON THE DAY .

[manckevin]

Re: Grand National 2010 It's that time of year folks (hi all, after a long absence). I do check by regularly! Just a question on Official Ratings. Sporting Life and Racing Post websites have two totally conflicting numbers for OR. Which is correct? Good luck with whatever you're going for and I'll sure I'll pop by in the week :)

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Grand National 2010

It's that time of year folks (hi all, after a long absence). I do check by regularly! Just a question on Official Ratings. Sporting Life and Racing Post websites have two totally conflicting numbers for OR. Which is correct? Good luck with whatever you're going for and I'll sure I'll pop by in the week :)

I quite often find the SL misleading numbers wise, beut very rarely the RP, if that helps any mate?

[manckevin]

Re: Grand National 2010 Massive help, thanks :) I'll amend my records and get this race down to six runners! :)

[manckevin]

Re: Grand National 2010 Here goes then... Trends as above in addition to checking some of those on Post 1, with the exception that I've drawn the line at 11-5 and ignored (for now at least) the 33/1 rule. If anyone wants to pick hole in the logic, fire away :spank Ellerslie George, Ballyfitz, Ollie Magern, Arbor Supreme, Hello Bud If getting in: Oodachee, Chief Dan George

[fintron]

Re: Grand National 2010 guys, what position is hello bud in the weights now? He was 45 i think, the last time i looked, but havent been able to load the rp racecard off my phone today to check if any above him had pulled out. Thanks in advanve!