Grand National 2010

[fintron]

Re: Grand National 2010 Final bets Big Fella Thanks - looks very well handicapped and Phil Smith has already said he'd be raising this one if he could. 6th in the race last season as a novice and is now a year stronger and wiser. Won at Donny over a trip he'd have found plenty sharp enough and is officially well in at these weights and a worthy fav. 20/1 Hills taken, best price currently avail 17/2 spo bet Arbor Supreme - stayed on well over shorter last time out and showed good stamina when winning 29-30f races in Ireland. Quite experienced chaser for his age but looks open to more improvement if taking to track. Taken prices up to 50.0, best prices currently avail 18/1 sky Hello Bud - another dark horse that will appreciate the drying ground. He won the Scottish National so has underlined his staying credentials there, decent effort at Cheltenham earlier in the season when behind Gallant Nuit and a good effort there last time out when running well for a way. 7 lb above last win but could defy the rise if he can stay up with the pace. taken 55.0, best price current avail 40/1 bet 365 My Will - another given a big chance by the handicapper, placed in this race last season and has won off this mark before. A dark horse for Paul Nicholls. taken 40/1 bet 365, still same price. Dream Alliance - Welsh National winner this year and having missed time off with injury last season may have plenty more to give. Ran no sort of race when pulling up on last start but potentially well handicapped as it wasnt that long ago he was chasing home Denman in the Hennessy. took 33/1 bet 365, currently 40/1 bet 365 Snowy Morning - saver bet. Looks very well handicapped judged on his third two seasons ago. He's been racing over inadequate trips this season and will appreciate a stamina test tomorrow. took 33/1 hills, currently 16/1 betfred Mon Mome - saver bet. Think the handicapper has been fair with regards to the weight issued, and he ran a cracker to take third off a modest pace in the Gold Cup. Proven in the race and versatile ground wise. took 11/1 blue sq, same price today Niche Market - saver bet. Irish National winner that was unlucky to be collared by Tricky Trickster in the Aon. Open to more improvement and will stay. took 36.0 betfair, best price currently 18/1 bet 365 Tricky Trickster - whoops, forgot this one. Had a little saver on him at 16/1 but in view of the Gold Cup I am not too sure he has the experience to win the race this year now. 16/1 with bet 365 today.

[alexmac]

Re: Grand National 2010 My bets: NICHE MARKET - Stays all day, and has the profile for some major improvement. Ground should suit, although a little more cut could help? Has won the Irish National, and has shown that he can jump. Really like his chance of making the frame. E/W 16/1, readily available. ERIC'S CHARM - has won two decent races recently, and looks like he too could find this to his fancy. A nice looking horse, who, in my opinion, is overpriced at the 50/1 price offered by Betfred. E/W. STATE OF PLAY - State of Play has been laid out for this all season, and has proven that he can run well over course and distance, finishing 4th last year. That goes in his favour, as does the fact that he is set to carry 5lbs less this year. A real chance to win this. 20/1, Betfred.

[Denman]

Re: Grand National 2010 I've narrowed down my selections a bit, true it is very much a lottery but I like to go through the card and look at form, trends, ect and try and find the winner. Don't really do E/W bets just back a number for the outright win, narrowed it down to the following shortlist: Madison Du Berlias (80) - The class horse in the race with plenty of Grade 1 race experience. The trends are firmly against it carrying top weight but I think a horse of this class shouldn't be over-looked at the price. Fell in the 2008 national but is usually a sound jumper. Vic Venturi (32) - Impressive winner ar Fairyhouse last time out. As won over national fences in the past which has got to be major plus. The big weight again a negative if you look at the trends. Comply Or Die (26) - Got to be respected for 2008 national winner and last years 2nd. Up in the weights but previous experience is always a major advatange. Niche Market (22) - Very impressive third in the Hennessey behind Denman and What A Friend. Last year's Irish Grand National winner and you've got to think it will be thereabouts if it gets round. My Will (55) - 3rd in last year's Grand National whilst not in the best of form this year it still could prove a danger. Snowy Morning (17.5) - I've backed this the last two years, finished on both occassions 9th in last year's and 3rd in 2008. Down in the weights from last year and decent enough form recentley. Character Building (21) - Always thought this horse as good potential. Good win at Cheltenham last year, dissapointing last time out but was well fancied prior to it's late withdrawal last year. Should be suited to the race. Eric's Charm (65) - The jumping would be of slight concern with this one, managed to blunder to victory last time out. Looks to have good stanmia so the trip shouldn't be a worry. Arbor Supreme (21) - As previous form over 3m+ and put in a decent enough prep run last time out. Maljimar (42) - Hasn't run since third at Cheltenham over the cross county course in December. But seems to go best when fresh and does like good ground. Irish Raptor (40) - Nigel Twiston-Davies was talking up the chances of this one. It's won over the national fences and seems too love it round Aintree was also leading whe blundered in Beacher Handicap Chase last year over national fences. If that can be excused you've got to feel it's got a good chances. Cerium (75) - If you believe reports it managed 5th last year after sustaining a fractured skull. Same weight this year a similiar performance could see it thereabouts. At the moment I'm edging towards Niche Market and Irish Raptor as my two main bets.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010 I've just backed another one: The Package, available @ 16/1 (enhanced win only odds at Stan James) Now the one with most money on.

[Carl]

Re: Grand National 2010

You can't judge a horse by the weight it carries, this is a better quality race, so EC is bound to carry a lot less weight. His handicap mark is exactly the same in the Grand National as at Newbury. Do think Eric's Charm is an outsider with a chance though mate. :ok

No you can't judge a horse's chances by weight BUT I'll gladly lose my money to any of the horses in the top 15 of the betting because IF one of those does win it will be the heaviest horse to win in 25+yrs. No doubt some of the higher end weighted runners are class BUT im a sucker for good stats and in a race like this Id rather stick to key trends.

[Trilobite]

Re: Grand National 2010 I have made my dutch bet based on stats and ratings. This year i am having a whole £9.99 on it. Selection Odds Stake Profit Niche Market 24 £2.86 £65.78 Dont Push It 26 £2.43 £60.75 King Johns Castle 38 £1.73 £64.01 Ballyholland 34 £1.93 £63.69 Beat The Boys 140 £0.44 £61.16 Ollie Magern 230 £0.28 £64.12 Preists Leap 210 £0.32 £66.88 Total Stake £9.99 :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010 GRAND NATIONAL Guide (including stable form (figure out of 10), jockey and my 100% book) Madison Du Berlais (158) Well handicapped on last season's form, disappointed this term. Flattered 2^nd when others faltered after chasing winner in King George. Flat track should suit. Possibly best able to dominate from the front which is unlikely here. Acts on soft and good going. Cheek pieces (cp). Stable form 8/10. T Scudamore Mon Mome (155) Proved his fitness, back to his best when 3rd in Gold Cup; flattered by staying on past those who chased the top horses. Rise of just 7 lbs for winning by 12 lengths in last year's National looks lenient (well handicapped). Given a real chance of becoming first since Red Rum to win two Nationals. Won't be 100/1 this time! Possibly best on good / good-soft. 5/10 A Coleman Vic Venturi (154) Irish. Stayed 3m2f to win slowly run Becher Chase in November, raised 6lbs for that and form has not worked out well. Good winner of Bobbyjo Chase last time out. Not as certain to be as effective over this trip as his stable companion Black Appalachi. Disappointed in two Irish Grand Nationals at 3m5f, though too soon to say he definitely doesn't stay. Best winning form on soft, but excellent 2^nd at the 08 Punchestown Festival (at the time his best performance) suggests equally effective on good. (cp) 5/10 ? Black Apalachi (154) Irish trained. Going well at head of affairs last year, jumped well on the first circuit, not so well the few before falling second Bechers Brook (now only on 1lb higher mark). Also won 08 Becher Chase. Encouraging 2^nd in Bobbyjo Chase (3m1f) latest start, staying on after being outpaced. Beaten 8 lengths but now 5lbs better off with victor and stable mate Vic Venturi. Effective on good and soft. (cp) 5/10 D O'Regan Joe Lively (154) Not jumped as well or same enthusiasm since injury. Respectable effort when 3^rd to Taranis penultimate start, poor 14^th in William Hill Chase since, unable to maintain customary prominent position. Probably acted on any going prior to a tendon injury. 7/10 J Tizzard Don't Push It (153) Pulled up last time in Pertemps Hurdle, possibly not soft enough for him. Winner over Aintree's Mildmay fences but can make mistakes. Proven at up to 3m3f. 9/10 AP McCoy Comply Or Die (153) Winner of this in 08. Most horses are on the downgrade at 11 years old, but did run well for a long way at Cheltenham. Beaten by only Mon Mome last year. Is now just 8lbs better off for 12 lengths. Slackening of pace after two front runners fell at second Becher's probably did not help. Now 1lb lower mark than 09, 14lbs higher than in 08. Possibly best on good / good-soft going. Blinkered (b). 8/10 T Murphy Tricky Trickster (152) Won 4m NH Chase last season (trained by Twiston-Davis). Now with Paul Nicholls; improved form to just get up and win Aon Chase. Given plenty to do and making up a lot of ground to beat Niche Market (who is now 3lbs better off). Very disappointing run in Gold Cup. Only 3 weeks to recover from whatever ailed him that day. Good jumper. Acts on heavy and good ground. 6/10 B Geraghty Niche Market (152) No experience of National fences but looks an ideal Aintree type, stays and jumps supremely well. Only 9^th last time in William Hill Chase, weakening late. Could've done without being upped 4lbs for close second in Aon. Possibly more improvement to come back over further. Irish National winner last try at 3m5f+. Races prominently, best on good / good-soft. Jockey unable to claim his apprentice allowance in this race. 5/10 H Skelton Made In Taipan (152) Irish. Ran well last time out at Navan, but last of 7 only start at as far as 3m. Highly unlikely to stay. Raced with give in the ground. 6/10 N Madden Dream Alliance (151) Raised 9lbs for Welsh National win. Form worked out well, but jumping problems resurfaced next time. Seems to lack confidence in his jumping once making a mistake. Best chase form on a soft surface and acts well on heavy. (cp) 8/10 T O'Brien Cloudy Lane (151) Trained by Grand National legend “Ginger” McCain's son. Not at best any start this term, only 4^th in Grimthorpe Chase (3¼m) last time off this mark. Dropped 7lbs since last year when unseated at The Chair. Joint favourite off only 141 when below form 6^th in 08. Acts on heavy and good ground. 8/10 J Maguire Nozic (150) 9^th of 10 finishers in Welsh National. Weakening late, which suggests he's an unlikely stayer. Did not seem to take to these fences when only 12^th of 17 finishers in Topham last year. Best form on soft ground and acts on heavy. Tongue tie (t). 6/10 L Treadwell My Will (150) Dropped 2lbs since last year. Looked a handicap snip that day and although 3^rd was a little disappointing. Needs a return to form; that Aintree run preceded by a good 5^th in Gold Cup last term, below form 7^th at Cheltenham this time. Acts on any going. 6/10 N Scholfield Pablo du Charmil (150) Ex-2miler. Proved he gets 3m well enough when 4^th at Uttoxeter in May, but unlikely to stay 4½m. Fell last time which is always a worry. Not run for a while but good record fresh. Acts on any going. 8/10 D Cook Ballyholland (148) Irish. Won Perth Gold Cup (3m) last season by 11 lengths and Galway Plate (2¾m) by 8 in the summer. Both on a sound surface. Below form last time on very soft. Speed he shows means it is difficult to see him staying 4½m. 7/10 AJ McNamara Backstage (148) Irish. Improved form over the last year has come on a sound surface. Upped 11lbs for 10 length win at Ffos Las, jumping well. Below form on softer going, over inadequate 2½m twice since (bit disappointing latest run on heavy). Yet to race over more than 3m1½f but races as if will stay further. 20/1, only 8^th in 09 Fox Hunter Chase over these fences. Trainer Gordon Elliot won this in 07 with Silver Birch. 4/10 D Condon Beat The Boys (148) Pulled up last two runs. Did win time before, but is Inconsistent and a poor jumper. Best form on a soft surface. 4/10 B Hughes Preists Leap (148) Irish. Dual Thyestes chase winner. Dropped 5lbs since only 14^th of 17 finishers last year, faded badly from prominent position 2 out. No form this term and possibly lost his confidence jumping. Probably suited by plenty of give underfoot. (b) 4/10 P Enright Snowy Morning (147) Well handicapped, down 9lbs since 9^th in last year's race, yet not at best all last season. Often makes mistakes; good round of jumping (now on only 2lbs higher mark) when close 3^rd to Comply Or Die in 08. Finished with flourish when 3rd over inadequate 2m1f last start, looked out of it two out. Shows signs of temperament but done nothing wrong at Aintree. Plenty of winning form on very soft, but best performances (placed efforts) have come on good / good-soft. 5/10 D Casey Can't Buy Time (147) Not the speed for 2½m on sound surface last time. Won 2m5f on soft at Cheltenham, idling on run-in. Appeared not to stay 4m when 4^th in 09 NH Chase behind Tricky Trickster; going best of all two out. Fell in Grand National last year. Equally effective on soft and good ground, although stamina will be at a premium the softer it gets. 9/10 R McLernon Big Fella Thanks (146) Best handicapped horse in this year's race. Improved to win Newbury's Greatwood Gold Cup (2½m). Showed speed, led on the bridle before idling; much more in hand than distances suggest. “Unseated rider” penultimate start, but more stumbled than unseated. Jumped well in the main when 6^th, good run for a novice in last year's National, now off a 3lb lower mark. Not 100% certain to stay. Reduction of pace after second Bechers meant less emphasis on stamina than usual. Certainly bred to stay. Acts on a soft and firm surface. 6/10 R Walsh State Of Play (145) Winner of 2006 Hennessey (same mark here) and pulled up in this season's race in November on first run since 4^th in last year's National. Small horse, made a few mistakes there and now off 5lbs lower mark. Good record fresh, so long absence not such a worry. Thought by connections better away from very soft ground. Won Charlie Hall on a firm surface, Hennessey on soft. 3/10 P Moloney Character Building (145) Always been a character. Looked unenthusiastic, 12^th in William Hill Chase. Idles badly and rider has to put his head in front close to the line. Goes well for tender handling. Won 09 Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham Festival. Does not have the expected strike rate of one of his ability. Stays and jumps well. Been bought by the Thomson's (Chieveley Park Stud) who bought Party Politics shortly before his victory. Equally effective on good or heavy. 4/10 Miss N Carberry Ellerslie George (144) Has won left-handed, but can jump right and improved to win Badger Beers Chase at Wincanton, making all. Form worked out well; but ran disappointingly since, including last of 7 latest run at Newbury, taken on for the lead. Made a mistake at the first on two tries over National fences. Front runner. Probably acts on any going. (cp for first time). 7/10 C Williams Erics Charm (143) 12 year old who's on a hat-trick. Proved he can win left-handed under McCoy at Newbury, form beginning to work out. Jumps well when racing prominently, less well when behind horses. Genuine and acts on any going. 4/10 W Hutchinson King John's Castle (143) 2^nd to Comply Or Die in 08. 2lbs higher now but is 11 years old. Injured since and difficult to know just how much ability he retains. Given plenty to do over hurdles recently. National 2^nd on good, also acts on very soft. 3/10 Paul Carberry Conna Castle (143) Poor strike rate and possibly best right-handed. Does not look the ideal type for the Grand National. Unseated latest start (2¼m, Feb) and very doubtful stayer. Acts on good and heavy going. 6/10 S Flanagan Ballyfitz (143) Another runner for the Twiston-Davis yard. Previous winner of Pertemps Hurdle, disappointing 13^th in the race last time. Better handicapped over fences, proved he stays 3½m when good 4^th in Blue Square Gold Cup (3½m). Needs to improve his jumping for Aintree. Acts on good, but best form with some give and acts well on heavy going. 4/10 D England Ollie Magern (143) 12 year old. Possibly on the downgrade these days, but ran best race since reappearance when 7^th in William Hill Chase. Sometimes moody. Fell at 2^nd fence last year. Probably acts on any going, poor mover. 4/10 T Molloy Arbor Supreme (142) Got poor ride last time, held up and still to be asked for an effort when winner had gone for home. Finishing strongly but too late (2m5f on heavy). Stays at least 3m6f, unseated penultimate start. Winner on soft and good ground. Capable of improvement. 5/10 P Townend Maljimar (142) Runner-up to A. P. McCoy and Witchita Lineman in last year's William Hill Chase. Hasn't raced since being placed in 3m7f slowly run X-Country chase in December. However, weakened in latter stages of truly run event at 3m3½f. Has finished weakly more than once and made mistakes. 8/10 D Jacob The Package (141) Very well handicapped and Improving, 2^nd in William Hill Chase finishing best of all last time. Bred to stay; by one Ascot Gold Cup winner in Kayf Tara, out of a mare who is by another, Ardross. Jumps well for a novice. Quirky and not the strike rate you'd expect of one of his ability, done nothing wrong last two starts. Probably equally effective on soft and good going. 8/10 G Lee Piraya (141) Not lived up to expectations since coming over from France. Poor run latest start in Racing Post Chase. Yet to race beyond 3m. Seems lazy these days. Acts on a soft surface. (t) 8/10 J Farrelly Irish Raptor (141) Good record over Aintree fences, winner and 2^nd in Topham (2m5½f). Unseated rider in latest Becher Chase. Struggled when racing beyond 3m2f and probably won't get home. Acts on soft and good going. 4/10 P Brennan Cerium (139) Poor mover. Possibly flattered 5^th in this last year. Allowed to close up when pace slackened. Somehow suffered fractured skull in race. First race since when outclassed in Gold Cup. Not enough promise to suggest he's likely to run well here. Acts on a soft surface. Inconsistent. 8/10 D Russell Palypso De Creek (140) Good record in France before coming over here. Only 14^th in Pertemps Hurdle last time, better over fences. Good 2^nd to Our Vic in Peter Marsh (3m on very soft), finishing well. Faded latter stages in Becher Chase (3m2f) behind Vic Venturi, racing with head a little high, possibly not enjoying these fences. Best form on a soft surface. 4/10 T Siddall Hello Bud (140) 12 year old, but improved at 11, winning Scottish National. Thought by some best on a sound surface: but good 3^rd on soft to Gallant Nuit off a 7lb higher mark (same as here). Good experience, but not recovered just 8 days later in Becher chase. Inadequate test of 3m1½f last time. Trainer's son rides, won't be able to claim his allowance in the Grand National and is effectively be a 7lb penalty. Sam Twiston-Davis has ridden him the last 3 runs, best efforts so far under Paddy Brennan. Jumps well and races prominently. (t) 4/10 Mr S Twiston-Davis Flintoff (139) Part owned by the man himself. Out and out stayer who makes mistakes. Lazy and needed a bog. (b) 5/10 A Tinkler Royal Rosa (139) 11 year old, 6^th in Scottish National in 08. Lightly raced stayer, poor win / run ratio. Carrying 6lbs overweight, 3^rd behind Vic Venturi in Becher Chase (November), disappointing since. Acts on good and a soft surface. 7/10 K Renwick My 100% Book (prices to beat) with value horses underlined, Big Fella Thanks is only ½% better so with a margin for error is not counted as value. Big Fella Thanks 15/2, Mon Mome17/2, The Package10/1, Niche Market 15/1, Snowy Morning 16/1, Black Appalachi 16/1, Vic Venturi 20/1, Comply Or Die 20/1, Backstage 20/1, Arbor Supreme 28/1, Tricky Trickster 28/1, State Of Play 28/1, Hello Bud 33/1, Eric's Charm 33/1, Character Building 40/1, My Will 40/1, Ballyholland 50/1, King John's Castle 50/1, Can't Buy Time 66/1, Madison De Berlais 66/1, Ballyfitz 100/1, Palypso De Creek 100/1, Dream Alliance 100/1, Cloudy Lane 132/1, Irish Raptor 132/1, Don't Push It 132/1, Joe Lively 200/1, Nozic 200/1, Cerium 300/1, Ellerslie George 400/1, Maljimar 400/1, Flintoff 400/1, Royal Rosa 500/1, Ollie Magern 500/1, Preist's Leap 500/1, Piraya 500/1, Beat The Boys 500/1, Pablo Du Charmil 800/1, Made In Taipan 1000/1, Conna Castle 1000/1. My bets are: Niche Market 33/1 Hello Bud 44/1 Mon Mome 25/1 Kilcrea Castle (DNR) 50/1 The Package 16/1 Big Fella Thanks 12/1 (half a bet) With savers on: Snowy Morning 25/1 Comply Or Die 28/1 Also backed the winner to carry 11 stones or more @ 11/8 With a saver bet on winner to carry less than 11 stones @ 4/5 And winner to carry more than 11 stones @ 7/4 Have just saved on Eric's Charm @ 64/1

[bowles10]

Re: Grand National 2010

I've just backed another one: The Package, available @ 16/1 (enhanced win only odds at Stan James) Now the one with most money on.

a 7yo? my great great grandad saw the last one win i know stats are there to be broken :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010 Very few 7 year olds who've run in the Grand National have had as much experience of big fields than The Package. ok he is not as perfect a jumper as Niche Market, but is not a poor jumper like Ballyfitz or Dream Alliance. Bred to stay very well. there's been so few 7 year olds to run in the National that the stat means very little. Only 28 of the 760 runners in the last 20 years, 3.68% of the total number of runners. So if he wins, 7 year olds would (in percentage terms) have a good strike rate in the Grand National. I don't think it is worth going back moer than about 25 years; as the National has changed completely. Was it 1969 when the fences changed from being totally straight upright?

[Spooner]

Re: Grand National 2010 Ballyfitz @ 66/1 Ladbrokes E-W Good luck to anyone finding the winner of this, Ballyfitz should stay has finished 4th in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock (3m 4f), ground conditions look ok and he has fair form, as a novice saw off Big Fella Thanks by 11 lengths but BFT did have a few jumping problems then, has improved alot, however, I think Ballyfitz can go well enough, plus I like the silks. ;)

[markmywords]

Re: Grand National 2010 Listening to five live tonight A P McCoy and M Fitzgerald both believe the Package will run a cracking race I went Black Apalachie 25/1 in Dec but will also have a go of this.

[McG]

Re: Grand National 2010 Big Fella Thanks now out to 10/1 :loon Big gamble on The Package, similar to the one on Pipe's Comply or Die a couple of years ago. That year, Martin P was telling everyone on the Friday night that he had the winner.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Grand National 2010 4:15 Aintree The Grand National: The Package 1pt e/w 12/1 Bet365, Snowy Morning 1pt 16/1 e/w Stan James & King John's Castle 1pt e/w 28/1 Stan James (all 12345) The Package brings in to this race some rock solid staying form. He beat The Tother One at Cheltenham and then just missed out to Chief Dan George at the Festival last month. Passed over by Timmy Murphy and up against it stats wise, The Package still appeals as a young horse on the up. Snowy Morning has experience over these unique fences, beaten just over five lengths two years ago by Comply or Die. Not so clever last year, but back down to an attractive mark, if he can get near the front and in to a rhythm he could go very close. King John's Castle is a more speculative selection. Hard to tell how much ability he retains, since he has been racing over hurdles. However, the suspicion is his shrewd trainer will have him primed to repeat his 2008 run. Reunited with Paul Carberry for the first time since.

[burf]

Re: Grand National 2010

I've narrowed it down to 4. SNOWY MORNING CANT BUY TIME ERICS CHARM ( carries a stone less then when winning LTO at Newbury 3m2 on GS) ELLERSLIE GEORGE All ran within 50 days for fitness, placed 3rd or more within the last 3 races, age, weight trends etc.

I've taken all your tips on an E/W bet (I know nothing about racing whatsoever!). So, I have my fingers crossed for a 1, 2, 3, 4 finish. Odds on that? Ha. I won't blame you if none of them finish in the top four.

[DafsT]

Re: Grand National 2010 Sorry guys late posting... Look at my Hunter Mahan bet if you think I'm jumping on a bandwagon

Sport	Golf
Event	US Masters Outright
Selection	Anthony Kim (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	11/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 41.00 (Back)
Reasoning	I think I mentioned in my Hunter Mahan bet that I listed Anthony Kim too, so here we are. Anthony Kim is won at Houston only a little back and is a great golfer with a lot of talent. He's not the favourite but a nice price outsider. I hope Anthony Kim will win the US Masters. Good luck!

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Grand National 2010 Narrowed it down bit by bit using the usual trends, then from that shortlist of 8 or 9 I considered the way the ground has been riding over Thursday and Friday and the likely 'real' going come off-time, and settled on a shortlist of 3. Backstage 1pt e/w @ 25/1bog (StanJames 1/4, 12345) Arbor Supreme 0.6pts e/w @ 16/1bog (Bet365, 1/4 12345) Snowy Morning 0.6pts e/w @ 16/1bog (StanJames 1/4, 12345) 0.05pts cfc

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Grand National 2010

Sorry guys late posting... Look at my Hunter Mahan bet if you think I'm jumping on a bandwagon

Sport	Golf
Event	US Masters Outright
Selection	Anthony Kim (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	11/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 41.00 (Back)
Reasoning	I think I mentioned in my Hunter Mahan bet that I listed Anthony Kim too, so here we are. Anthony Kim is won at Houston only a little back and is a great golfer with a lot of talent. He's not the favourite but a nice price outsider. I hope Anthony Kim will win the US Masters. Good luck!

Blimey, he's only 5ft 10ins. To be honest I think he'll struggle to get over Bechers

[bartrum]

Re: Grand National 2010

Blimey' date=' he's only 5ft 10ins. To be honest I think he'll struggle to get over Bechers[/quote'] Ha ha... that made me chuckle.. especially after a losing night on poker it must have been funny!!!!:lol

[jtw1]

Re: Grand National 2010

7 stats which may help narrow down the field . 1- Although usually the weight limit is 11:00 and under , as has been pointed out elsewhere , it looks like there will be no horses running from out of the Handicap again this year so if MADISON DU BERLAIS [11:10] stands his ground i would consider ALL those under him and MON MOME [only RED RUM has won back-to-back wins since the war] 2- Eliminate those who have not shown any winning form at 3m+ - a fairly obvious statement imo. 3- Ignore those who have not ran for 50 days - recent racecourse fitness appears to be vital. 4- Ignore those who have ran 3 times or under this season or over 6. - Those in between are usually the ones who have been specifically aimed at the race. 5- Must be aged between 8-12 - you have to go back to 1940 for a 7yo winner and 1923 for a teenage victor 6- Eliminate all those who have fallen MORE than twice in their career - yes Mon Mome unseated his rider a few times in his career but IN GENERAL you need a safe conveyance . 7- Stick to those around 33/1 or Under in the market , ON THE DAY .

Here we go and despite last years 100/1 winner , overall it pays to stick to those who will start 33/1 or under so with that in mind and wary that a few will contract i'll keep those at 40's in but the rest are out - MADISON DU BERLAIS [also top weight of 11:10 ] , JOE LIVELY , MADE IN TAIPAN , NOZIC , PABLO DU CHARMIL , BEAT THE BOYS , PRIESTS LEAP , ELLERSLIE GEORGE , ERIC'S CHARM , CONNA CASTLE , BALLYFITZ , OLLIE MAGERN , PIRAYA , CERIUM , PALYPSO DE CREEK , FLINTOFF and ROYAL ROSA . Next is AGE - TRICKY TRICKSTER [7] and THE PACKAGE [7] go out . Weight and last years winner - MON MOME . 50 Day trend [ i'm including those on 49 as well ] - VIC VENTURI [49] , BLACK APPALACHI [49] , DREAM ALLIANCE [49] , STATE OF PLAY [133] , MALJIMAR [120] and IRISH RAPTOR [126] . Of those left who have ran less than 3 times but more than 6 - COMPLY OR DIE and CHARACTER BUILDING . 12 remaining and now to remove those who have not won at least 3m - BALLYHOLLAND [ won ptp's at 3m but not under NH rules ] So down to 11 and now it's the one's who have fallen/unseated more than twice in their career - CLOUDY LANE [2xF , 2x U] . So i've reduced the field to 10 and exhusted all my trends so with the going currently G/S and it looking like being a warm , sunny day on Saturday the mud-larks will be disadvantaged so SNOWY MORNING [ 7/8 wins under rules on Soft/Heavy ] , BIG FELLA THANKS [ 4/5 on SOft/Heavy] , KING JOHNS CASTLE [ 4/4 on Yldg/Soft + Soft] , ARBOUR SUPREME [3/4 Soft / Heavy ] DON'T PUSH IT might have just squeaked it [ 4/7 on Soft ] but his win on supposed Good ground at Newbury was run 23+ secs above standard. MY WILL [5/8 on Soft/Heavy] was another who might have got by but his last win was back in 2006 and that was a slow run race , 34 secs over standard despite it being officially G/S . Thats me down to a manageable 4 and it's an interesting fact that the past 10 winners had all won a Listed or Graded Chase in their career . BACKSTAGE has not won at either level and adde to the fact he has only ran 7 times under rules over Fences and 26f is the furthest he's tackled i'm passing him over , esp as he's only had 2 runs since the 28th of August. So here's my 3 aginst the field - NICHE MARKET - 9yo who has won a Listed Chase , albeit back in '08 , but won the Irish National in '09 . He has ran 5 times this season , 3rd to DENMAN in the Hennessy the best run imo this season . Followed that up by floundering in the mud in the Mandarin but was only beaten a Sh-Hd in the Aon Chase . Disappointed at Cheltenham LTO but thats no worry for me here. He has no experience of the big fences which is a negative but i'll have a nibble at 18's. CAN'T BUY TIME may show that AP has picked the wrong one , he's a decent 3 miler who has won 3/5 on Good ground. A win in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham shows a bit of Class . He fell at the 18th last year when only a 7yo but hopefully he''l be a bit more wary of whats ahead this year and at 33's he's certainly worth an EW bet to be placed in the first 5. Now here's the one who i really give a decent chance to [ if he gets the luck ] HELLO BUD won the Scottish National [G3] in '09 on Good ground and is only rated 1lb higher here . An out-and-out stayer who has won 7 times from 23f to 33f inc twice onG/S , once on GD [scot Nat] and once on G/F so the current ground is not a problem. 4 of his 6 runs this season have been in Listed/Graded company and apart from the first and last outings were on ground a bit Softer than he would have preferred. Even better is the fact that he has experienced the National fences [ 5th in this season's Becher Chase] At a general 40/1 to place in the 1st 5 he looks a great bet providing he avoids trouble on the 1st circuit . GL to Punters , Jockeys and Horses tomorrow , may we all live to fight another day :hope

[StuSimmy]

Re: Grand National 2010 16:15 Aintree - The Grand National Three selections for me: State Of Play - The Evan Williams trained horse finished 4th in last years National and although well beaten, at leats he completed the course. Form over the Grand National fences is a huge positive. Is also a previous course winner as well which shows further that he handles the track despite that race not being over the national fences. He gets in off a mark 5lbs lower than last years race here today which could be key to his chances. Character Building - This will be the horses first run at Aintree so this is a bit of an unknown for him track and fence-wise. Is a solid jumper though and is yet to fall so fingers crossed he can put in a solid round today. Not sure how he will cope with the trip as well having won as far as 26 furlongs although he has placed over 33 furlongs at Cheltenham which shows he can cope with a test of stamina. Does tend to run in the rear as well so it will be an even bigger test of stamina from the back but I guess for all these unknown factors there is only one way to find out if he will cope with them. Dream Alliance - This horse won the Welsh Grand National back in December 2009, a race in which Mon Mome placed in back in 2007 and as we all know he won the Grand National last year. The Wesl National is the furthest trip Dream Alliance has run over but that was a true stamina test in heavy going so I'm taking it that he will relish this test of stamina today having never previously run in this race. 1pt win State Of Play @ 16/1 1pt win Character Building @ 20/1 1pt win Dream Alliance @ 40/1 All bets with Ladbrokes (BOG)

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Grand National 2010 Well done AP :clap :clap :clap

[Spooner]

Re: Grand National 2010

Well done AP :clap :clap :clap

:clap

[alexmac]

Re: Grand National 2010 :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy

[markysimmo]

Re: Grand National 2010 So pleased for AP.. I had 2nd, 3rd, 4th so won a few quid..

[stereoman]

Re: Grand National 2010 Had King Johns Castle to win in a match-bet. :eyes I assume it's a loser rather than a non-runner. :$ Tony McCoy could do a Ryan Giggs in the BBC Sport Personality of the Year if England don't do well in the World Cup....he' already down to around 10/1 from 66s and 80s this morning! :eek :loon

[Sm0k3rZ]

Re: Grand National 2010 hey guys... can anyone please tell me by how many lengths the winner won? as i missed the race.. cheers ;)

[alexmac]

Re: Grand National 2010 5 lengths

[Sm0k3rZ]

Re: Grand National 2010 thanks alot mate..

[stereoman]

Re: Grand National 2010 King Johns Castle? 'Refused' so it's a loser. :(

[StuSimmy]

Re: Grand National 2010 Well done AP :nana Chuffed for him!