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Grand National 2010

Trendsman

By Trendsman
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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Wumpking

Wumpking

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Re: Grand National 2010

guys' date=' what position is hello bud in the weights now? He was 45 i think, the last time i looked, but havent been able to load the rp racecard off my phone today to check if any above him had pulled out. Thanks in advanve![/quote'] I think he is in at position 37 currently set to carry 10-6
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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

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Re: Grand National 2010

guys' date=' what position is hello bud in the weights now? He was 45 i think, the last time i looked, but havent been able to load the rp racecard off my phone today to check if any above him had pulled out. Thanks in advanve![/quote'] He's in Fin 37
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RuleBritannia

RuleBritannia

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Re: Grand National 2010

guys' date=' what position is hello bud in the weights now? He was 45 i think, the last time i looked, but havent been able to load the rp racecard off my phone today to check if any above him had pulled out. Thanks in advanve![/quote'] read he is guaranteed a run mate
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Aykay1

Aykay1

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Re: Grand National 2010

AK, Vic Venturi stays 3m2f well enough, but does he stay further? Why was he unplaced at two attempts at 3m5f in the Irish National? There may be a perfectly good reason, but it does make you think. The Becher he won was a poor race, form has not worked out. Might have beaten a load of out of form horses in the Bobbyjo. Black Appalachi was outpaced in that race before staying on to be beaten only 8 lengths and now 5lbs better off. VV did travel well through the race, just wonder if BA will be the better suited by the trip.
Yes it is a concern re: the 2 Irish National runs but he seems to be an improved horse this season. He has stamina in his pedigree and has been showing no signs of stopping over 3m2f. Having said that, stamina over the 4m4f trip is in no way assured. BA will definitely stay the trip I think but I cant bring myself to back a horse that has fallen both times he has run in the National. I liked VV's Bechers win and experience over the fences will be a big bonus. My concern now is that he isnt much value, trading at around 20.0
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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: Grand National 2010 This is how I see it: GRAND NATIONAL GUIDE Madison Du Berlais (158) Well handicapped on last season's form, disappointed this term. Flattered 2nd when others faltered after chasing winner in King George. Flat track should suit. Possibly best able to dominate from the front which is unlikely here. Acts on soft and good going. Mon Mome (155) Proved his fitness, back to his best when 3rd in Gold Cup; flattered by staying on past those who chased the top horses. Rise of just 7 lbs for winning by 12 lengths in last year's National looks lenient (well handicapped). Given a real chance of becoming first since Red Rum to win two Nationals even if ending up with top weight. Won't be 100/1 this time! Possibly best on good / good-soft. Black Apalachi (154) Irish trained. Going well at head of affairs last year, jumped well on the first circuit, not so well the few before falling second Bechers Brook (now only on 1lb higher mark). Also won 08 Becher Chase. Encouraging 2nd in Bobbyjo Chase (3m1f) latest start, staying on after being outpaced. Beaten 8 lengths but now 5lbs better off with victor and stable mate Vic Venturi. Effective on good and soft. Joe Lively (154) Not jumped as well or same enthusiasm since injury. Respectable effort when 3rd to Taranis penultimate start, poor 14th in William Hill Chase since, unable to maintain customary prominent position. Probably acted on any going prior to a tendon injury. Vic Venturi (154) Irish. Stayed 3m2f to win slowly run Becher Chase in November, raised 6lbs for that and form has not worked out well. Good winner of Bobbyjo Chase last time out. Not as certain to be as effective over this trip as his stable companion Black Appalachi. Disappointed in two Irish Grand Nationals at 3m5f, though too soon to say he definitely doesn't stay. Best winning form on soft, but excellent 2nd at the 08 Punchestown Festival (at the time his best performance) suggests equally effective on good. Comply Or Die (153) Winner of this in 08. Most horses are on the downgrade at 11 years old, but did run well for a long way at Cheltenham. Beaten by only Mon Mome last year. Is now just 8lbs better off for 12 lengths. Slackening of pace after two front runners fell at second Becher's probably did not help. Now 1lb lower mark than 09, 14lbs higher than in 08. Possibly best on good / good-soft going. Don't Push It (153) Pulled up last time in Pertemps Hurdle, possibly not soft enough for him. Winner over Aintree's Mildmay fences but can make mistakes. Proven at up to 3m3f. AP McCoy is apparently choosing between him and stable companion Can't Buy Time. Made In Taipan (152) Irish. Ran well last time out at Navan, but last of 7 only start at as far as 3m. Highly unlikely to stay. Raced with give in the ground. Niche Market (152) No experience of National fences but looks an ideal Aintree type, stays and jumps supremely well. Only 9th last time in William Hill Chase, weakening late. Could've done without being upped 4lbs for close second in Aon. Possibly more improvement to come back over further. Irish National winner last try at 3m5f+. Races prominently, best on good / good-soft. Ridden by Harry Skelton who is unable to claim his apprentice allowance in this race. Tricky Trickster (152) Won 4m NH Chase last season (trained by Twiston-Davis). Now with Paul Nicholls; improved form to just get up and win Aon Chase. Given plenty to do and making up a lot of ground to beat Niche Market (who is now 3lbs worse better off). Very disappointing run in Gold Cup. Only 3 weeks to recover from whatever ailed him that day. Good jumper. Acts on heavy and good ground. Cloudy Lane (151) Trained by Grand National legend “Ginger” McCain's son. Not at best any start this term, only 4th in Grimthorpe Chase (3¼m) last time off this mark. Dropped 7lbs since last year when unseated at The Chair. Joint favourite off only 141 when below form 6th in 08. Acts on heavy and good ground. Dream Alliance (151) Raised 9lbs for Welsh National win. Form worked out well, but jumping problems resurfaced next time. Seems to lack confidence in his jumping once making a mistake. Best chase form on a soft surface and acts well on heavy. Nozic (150) 9th of 10 finishers in Welsh National. Weakening late, which suggests he's an unlikely stayer. Did not seem to take to these fences when only 12th of 17 finishers in Topham last year. Best form on soft ground and acts on heavy. My Will (150) Dropped 2lbs since last year. Looked a handicap snip that day and although 3rd was a little disappointing. Needs a return to form; that Aintree run preceded by a good 5th in Gold Cup last term, below form 7th at Cheltenham this time. Acts on any going. Pablo du Charmil (150) Ex-2miler. Proved he gets 3m well enough when 4th at Uttoxeter in May, but unlikely to stay 4½m. Fell last time which is always a worry. Acts on any going. Backstage (148) Irish. Improved form over the last year has come on a sound surface. Upped 11lbs for 10 length win at Ffos Las, jumping well. Below form on softer going, over inadequate 2½m twice since (bit disappointing latest run on heavy). Yet to race over morer than 3m1½f but races as if will stay further. 20/1, only 8th in 09 Fox Hunter Chase over these fences. Trainer Gordon Elliot won this in 07 with Silver Birch. Ballyholland (148) Irish. Won Perth Gold Cup (3m) last season by 11 lengths and Galway Plate (2¾m) by 8 in the summer. Both on a sound surface. Below form last time on very soft. Speed he shows means it is difficult to see him staying 4½m. Beat The Boys (148) Pulled up last two runs. Did win time before, but is Inconsistent and a poor jumper. Best form on a soft surface. Preists Leap (148) Irish. Dual Thyestes chase winner. Dropped 5lbs since only 14th of 17 finishers last year, faded badly from prominent position 2 out. No form this term and possibly lost his confidence jumping. Probably suited by plenty of give underfoot. Can't Buy Time (147) Not the speed for 2½m on sound surface last time. Won 2m5f on soft at Cheltenham, idling on run-in. Appeared not to stay 4m when 4th in 09 NH Chase behind Tricky Trickster; going best of all two out. Fell in Grand National last year. Equally effective on soft and good ground, although stamina will be at a premium the softer it gets. Snowy Morning (147) Well handicapped, down 9lbs since 9th in last year's race, yet not at best all last season. Often makes mistakes; good round of jumping (now on only 2lbs higher mark) when close 3rd to Comply Or Die in 08. Finished with flourish when 3rd over inadequate 2m1f last start, looked out of it two out. Shows signs of temperament but done nothing wrong at Aintree. Plenty of winning form on very soft, but best performances (placed efforts) have come on good / good-soft Big Fella Thanks (146) Best handicapped horse in this year's race. Improved to win Newbury's Greatwood Gold Cup (2½m). Showed speed, led on the bridle before idling; much more in hand than distances suggest. “Unseated rider” penultimate start, but more stumbled than unseated. Jumped well in the main when 6th, good run for a novice in last year's National, now off a 3lb lower mark. Not 100% certain to stay. Reduction of pace after second Bechers meant less emphasis on stamina than usual. Certainly bred to stay. Ruby Walsh rides. Acts on a soft and firm surface. Character Building (145) Always been a character. Looked unenthusiastic, 12th in William Hill Chase. Idles badly and rider has to put his head in front close to the line. Won 09 Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham Festival. Does not have the expected strike rate of one of his ability. Stays and jumps well. Been bought by the Thomson's (Chieveley Park Stud) who bought Party Politics shortly before his victory. Equally effective on good or heavy. State Of Play (145) Winner of 2006 Hennessey (same mark here) and pulled up in this season's race in November on first run since 4th in last year's National. Small horse, made a few mistakes there and now off 5lbs lower mark. Good record fresh, so long absence not such a worry. Thought by connections better away from very soft ground. Won Charlie Hall on a firm surface, Hennessey on soft. Ellerslie George (144) Has won left-handed, but can jump right and improved to win Badger Beers Chase at Wincanton, making all. Form worked out well; but ran disappointingly since, including last of 7 latest run at Newbury. Made a mistake at the first on two tries over National fences. Likes to lead. Probably acts on any going. Ballyfitz (143) Another runner for the Twiston-Davis yard. Previous winner of Pertemps Hurdle, disappointing 13th in the race last time. Better handicapped over fences, proved he stays 3½m when good 4th in Blue Square Gold Cup (3½m). Needs to improve his jumping for Aintree. Acts on good as well as heavy going. Conna Castle (143) Poor strike rate and possibly best right-handed. Does not look the ideal type for the Grand National. Unseated latest start (2¼m, Feb) and very doubtful stayer. Acts on good and heavy going Erics Charm (143) 12 year old who's on a hat-trick. Proved he can win left-handed under McCoy at Newbury, form beginning to work out. Jumps well when racing prominently, less well when behind horses. Genuine and acts on any going. King John's Castle (143) 2nd to Comply Or Die in 08. 2lbs higher now but is 11 years old. Injured since and difficult to know just how much ability he retains. Given plenty to do over hurdles recently. National 2nd on good, also acts on very soft. Ollie Magern (143) 12 year old. Possibly on the downgrade these days, but ran best race since reappearance when 7th in William Hill Chase. Sometimes moody. Fell at 2nd fence last year. Probably acts on any going, poor mover. Arbor Supreme (142) Got poor ride last time, held up and still to be asked for an effort when winner had gone for home. Finishing strongly but too late (2m5f on heavy). Stays at least 3m6f, unseated penultimate start. Winner on soft and good ground. Capable of improvement. Maljimar (142) Runner-up to A. P. McCoy and Witchita Lineman in last year's William Hill Chase. Hasn't raced since being placed in 3m7f slowly run X-Country chase in December. However, weakened in latter stages of truly run event at 3m3½f. Has finished weakly more than once and made mistakes. Irish Raptor (141) Good record over Aintree fences, winner and 2nd in Topham (2m5½f). Unseated rider in latest Becher Chase. Struggled when racing beyond 3m2f and probably won't get home. Acts on soft and good going. Mr Pointment (141) Becher winner. Pulled up, weakened latter stages of 08 National for Nicholls. Nowhere near best for new connections in Gold Cup, looking temperamental. Best run on soft, also winner on good. Has had breathing problems and broken blood vessels. Piraya (141) Not lived up to expectations since coming over from France. Poor run latest start in Racing Post Chase. Yet to race beyond 3m. Seems lazy these days. Acts on a soft surface. The Package (141) Very well handicapped and Improving, 2nd in William Hill Chase finishing best of all last time. Bred to stay; by one Ascot Gold Cup winner in Kayf Tara, out of a mare who is by another, Ardross. Jumps well for a novice. Quirky and not the strike rate you'd expect of one of his ability, done nothing wrong last two starts. Only a 7 year old and has little experience compared to most. Probably equally effective on soft and good going Hello Bud (140) 12 year old, but improved at 11, winning Scottish National. Thought by some best on a sound surface: but good 3rd on soft to Gallant Nuit off a 7lb higher mark (same as here). Good experience, but not recovered just 8 days later in Becher chase. Inadequate test of 3m1½f last time. Trainer's son may ride, won't be able to claim his allowance in the Grand National and will effectively be a 7lb penalty. Sam Twiston-Davis has ridden him the last 3 runs, best efforts so far under Paddy Brennan. Jumps well and races prominently. Palypso De Creek (140) Good record in France before coming over here. Only 14th in Pertemps Hurdle last time, better over fences. Good 2nd to Our Vic in Peter Marsh (3m on very soft), finishing well. Faded latter stages in Becher Chase (3m2f) behind Vic Venturi, racing with head a little high, possibly not enjoying these fences. Best form on a soft surface. Abbeybraney (139) Pulled up in NH Chase last time, possibly better on softer. Stays well, makes mistakes. Does not have a good strike rate for one of his ability. Cerium (139) Poor mover. Possibly flattered 5th in this last year. Allowed to close up when pace slackened. Somehow suffered fractured skull in race. First race since when outclassed in Gold Cup. Not enough promise to suggest he's likely to run well here. Acts on a soft surface. Inconsistent. Flintoff (139) Part owned by the man himself. Out and out stayer who makes mistakes. Lazy and will be suited if it comes up a bog. Royal Rosa (139) 11 year old, 6th in Scottish National in 08. Lightly raced stayer, poor win / run ratio. Carrying 6lbs overweight, 3rd behind Vic Venturi in Becher Chase (November), disappointing since. Acts on good and a soft surface. Silver Birch (139) Winner of 07 National, 13 years old now and probably on the downgrade. Still going reasonably when falling second Bechers last year. Well behind in X-Country Chase at Cheltenham latest start. Won Grand National on good and Welsh National on very soft going. Knowhere (138) Fell in William Hill Chase, bringing down another horse too. Jumping is worse than ever this season (mistakes all starts). Now 12 years old and on the downgrade, though handicap mark reflects that. Off a mark 17lbs lower than last year. Knowhere near his best form; did manage a 2¼ length 2nd to Eric's Charm (same terms here) penultimate start, but is inconsistent. Acts on good-firm and soft going. Failed to get around in 3 Grand Nationals, unseating twice. Oodachee (138) Irish 11 year old. Last of 10 finishers in Kim Muir Chase last time. Has run well (2nd) in the Topham and Irish National. Acts on good-firm and good-soft. Whinstone Boy (138) Progressive Irish chaser, winner of his last two starts, suited by the very soft conditions, making all and jumping well. Should stay further than 3 miles. Trainer James Joseph Mangan won the National with Monty's Pass.

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fintron

fintron

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Re: Grand National 2010 This is the current going for Aintree, as on the RP site...

GOING: GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places on Mildmay course; Soft in places on National course) (GoingStick: Mildmay 6.0, Hurdle 5.9; National 5.3) (Mildmay/Hurdle bends on outside line; moved in to provide fresh ground on each day). (Sunny intervals)
What do we reckon, could dry out to Good?
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ogii55

ogii55

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Re: Grand National 2010 V Good points, Ginge! I already got two small antepost bets on Olie Magern and Knowhere. Think Olie is a contender for a place with huge odds to do it. His mark/weights are going down and his jumping was better in Will Hill race. Seemed to do well in the last furlongs during current season and seems need some more distance. Will write more on thе race on Saturday.

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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: Grand National 2010

V Good points, Ginge! I already got two small antepost bets on Olie Magern and Knowhere. Think Olie is a contender for a place with huge odds to do it. His mark/weights are going down and his jumping was better in Will Hill race. Seemed to do well in the last furlongs during current season and seems need some more distance. Will write more on thе race on Saturday.
In my opinion Ollie is best fresh, the run at Cheltenham being a negative in that respect. Ran past beaten horses there anyway. If I had my way Knowhere would not be allowed to run. His jumping has got progressively worse. IMO he's a danger to himself and others. I'd want better than 300/1 to back Knowhere and 500/1 to back Ollie Magern. But they still might win. :ok
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NapoleonQ

NapoleonQ

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Re: Grand National 2010 With so many entries it's best to look for EW value. Priest's Leap, Nozic, Erics Charm are my bets. Was tipped a 20-1 winner at Cheltenham in Thousand Stars, the same bloke points me toward Abbeybraney if it gets a run. Now nine-years-old but still only had nine races over fences to date and it remains to be seen if he has the experience to cope with a race such as the Grand National. Started his career in Ireland and ran some good races over there, predominatnly in defeat including running subsequent Welsh National winner Notre Pere to a head in Grade One Knight Frank Novice Chase at Leopardstown. Began his British career with a very encouraging runner-up spot to Barbers Shop in an intermediate chase at Sandown with the likes of Roll Along and Battle Cry behind that day. 2009/10 has seen him finish third to subsequent RSA Chase winner Weapons Amnesty and then register his first win from the well regarded The Hollinwell. The only disappointment has been when he was pulled up in the NH Chase at Cheltenham which could have been down to the good ground. He would certainly appear to appreciate a test of stamina and it may well be that if it came up soft at Aintree he could be an interesting outsider

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Jonesy Knows

Jonesy Knows

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Re: Grand National 2010 Just the one for me and maybe an outsider on the day! The Package EW @17.00 (Skybet - 1,2,3,4,5 places 1/4 odds) Has got better since it's been put over further and really ought to have won at Cheltenham but for Timmy Murphy's timing. Won't mind the ground whether it's good or soft and is a good safe jumper with a former National winning jockey on board. Is relatively a young at 7 and could be one to follow in this race for a few years to come. :ok

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Carl

Carl

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Re: Grand National 2010 for the last 3-4 years I've done well with the G.N applying the filters and key trends. So far I've narrowed it down to: Preists Leap Snowy Morning Cant buy time State of play Ellerslie George Erics Charm Ive not inc Big Fella Thanks due to fate of the favs. But Im going to look more in depth of these runners. Last years Mon Mome only slipped through the net due to the French stat but it filled all other criteria. Im pretty sure the winner will come from those i've listed or at least get a decent E/W value.

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Carl

Carl

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Re: Grand National 2010

I considered priests leap as an outsider when the rain arrived. Unfortunately for him it is drying out a bit now so looks up against it.
cheers for that AK, BTW mate Im sure you put up a stat last years regarding headgear? Preists Leap and Ellerslie George are both wearing some headgear. I'd guess blinkers could provide an advantage but Im thinking Cheek Pieces can be a hindrance IF they get wet.
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Carl

Carl

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Re: Grand National 2010 I've narrowed it down to 4. SNOWY MORNING CANT BUY TIME ERICS CHARM ( carries a stone less then when winning LTO at Newbury 3m2 on GS) ELLERSLIE GEORGE All ran within 50 days for fitness, placed 3rd or more within the last 3 races, age, weight trends etc.

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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: Grand National 2010

I've narrowed it down to 4. SNOWY MORNING CANT BUY TIME ERICS CHARM ( carries a stone less then when winning LTO at Newbury 3m2 on GS) ELLERSLIE GEORGE All ran within 50 days for fitness, placed 3rd or more within the last 3 races, age, weight trends etc.
You can't judge a horse by the weight it carries, this is a better quality race, so EC is bound to carry a lot less weight. His handicap mark is exactly the same in the Grand National as at Newbury. Do think Eric's Charm is an outsider with a chance though mate. :ok
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Aykay1

Aykay1

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Re: Grand National 2010 Me too. He reminds me a lot of Rambling Minster from last year though - hits all the trends and had the right profile for the race but does he have the class? Rambling Minster didnt. Still, at 50/1 worth a shot :ok

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