2010 Boxing Thread

[DafsT]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Anyone think that Santa Cruz can sneak in a win against Judah? Judah's not the same fighter he used to be and we all remember what happened when he overlooked Baldomir. Plus' date=' Santa Cruz is NO slouch, he is definitely capable of pulling the big upset. Anyone taking Santa Cruz?[/quote'] No. Santa Cruz had one good performance against Casamayor for the lineal lightweight crown, and since then went 3-1, three victories against cans and a stoppage defeat to the extremely limited Antonio Pitalua. I would take Judah by stoppage, but the guy is a complete and utter cock, and you don't know what kind of Judah will turn up. On his day, I think he can still challenge the best at 140. Look for Judah to call out everyone after winning every round tonight, but stay inactive for six months.

[DafsT]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Yuri Nuzhnenko @ 2.75 Boylesports 10 points Yuri Nuzhnenko @ 3.50 SportingBet 5 points Nuzhnenko's only defeat came in his WBA title tilt against Vyacheslav Senchenko last year, and he was beaten by the better man. Senchenko is just more skillful, has more hand speed, and good movement around the ring. However, Senchenko is a league above Matthew Hatton, and I see this fight as a 50/50 fight. I like Hatton. He's tried his best to get out of Ricky's shadow, he gives everything in every fight, and he wants to get the same success as his brother. His commitment is outstanding. I expected him to dominate Branco and win by a comprehensive decision, but it was a lacklustre performance and much closer than what I expected. Alvarez would batter Matthew in September, but I think Nuzhnenko will get their first. Alexander Alexeev @ 2.75 Boylesports 10 points Denis Lebedev defeated Enzo Maccarinelli with all the fireworks last year, and good on him for getting the best win of his career in such a fashion. However, Lebedev might have heavy hands, but his hand speed is snail's pace. Alexeev can also box, but often forgets to throw punches as he closes his opponent down. He was badly exposed against Victor Ramirez that he was all hype, but I think he'll get redemption with a split decision victory over Lebedev on Saturday. Tua-Barrett Under 7.5 Rounds @ 1.73 SportingBet 100 points I took this last week, and I think it's dropped down a bit since then. This is ridiculous. Barrett hasn't taken a punch well in years and all Tua has is power. Guess what happens? Tua 1-5 Rounds @ 1.61 SportingBet 10 points Guerrero by decision @ Evs SportingBet 7 points Smith @ 4.5 (Various) 2 points I think Smith has a chance here, so I've partly covered myself here. Guerrero has been having it easy so far, but he's yet to face someone who can play "D". Smith can, and will be tricky, but I think Guerrero will win most of the rounds based on punch output.

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Both Tua and Judah look in fantastic shape. Im tempted by the Judah stoppage to be honest.

[LtfcPete]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Already got this one for tonight (page 26).. D.Tua to bt. M.Barrett Rounds 1-5 15pts 2.20 SportingBet ..and I'll add.. D.Tua to bt. M.Barrett by KO, TKO or DQ 50pts 1.25 Boyles D.Tua to bt. M.Barrett Round 1 5pts 7.00 Boyles Bradley also goes tonight, moving up in weight to take on unbeaten Luis Carlos Abregu. Abregu comes in 4 inches taller than Bradley and is naturally more comfortable at the weight. Bradley is not known as a KO artist and indeed hasn't stopped someone for over 3 years. Abregu has some pop but his record isn't packed with the best opposition and Bradley, a genuine p4p contender, should have way too much for him. T.Bradley vs LC.Abregu Over 9.5 Rounds 15pts 1.73 Boyles T.Bradley to bt. LC.Abregu by Decision 7.5pts 2.62 Bet365

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Bradley to make a statement tonight to the Pac's, floyds etc, as he attempts to put himself in their bracket The only way to do that, is do it in style in his first venture at 147. A few unknowns attached to his upping in weight, but his fundamentals will be exactly the same. Superb condition and mental strength is a given to Bradley. Has sparred Abregu, so his paymasters must know what they're doing. Bradley's greatest asset, besides the two mentioned above...is a vicious head, which he cannily employs. Abregu has suffered cuts in two of his last 3 fights, and with his swarming style, it's a possibility they'll touch wood at some point. Abregu has been decked in a few fights, but Bradley's over-riding power is mainly in his accumalation of punches. Having a stab at a corner stoppage or controversail finish. Bradley 10-12 @ 15/2 b365. 0.5 pt. Anyone any views on Green to punish Briggs? Surely too long out of the ring for Briggs, to take this into the late rounds? Was a warrior in his day (who can forget those two genuine wars with Adamek ) but this a belated payday for him imo. Froch v Abraham signed and sealed for Oct'. The most interesting fact for me is, Ward v Dirrel is tentatively signed for late September. If this fight took place, it would mean Froch knows exactly what he has to do against AA. A Ward win, makes the Abraham match a dead rubber and he'd be through to the Semi's even with a defeat. Whats' the betting, the American bout gets put back??

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Loving the thought of Hatton v Alvarez. A lumping on in anyone's language. Judah was pencilled in last year, before Zab turned it down ! That'd do nicely also, but Zab would have to go back to 147.

[pulio]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Yeah I think Green beats Briggs. Briggs only knows one way to fight and thats coming forward.. same with Green. They will be trading punches and going to war. The problem for Briggs is that he has been retired for 3 years. Not only that but he has had documented problems with his nervous system in that time. He is not going to be the same fighter he was. I think the 4/7 on boylesports for the green KO is generous. Froch will be losing to Abraham regardless of the date of the fight. This is going to be a hard fight for Froch and he will be taking massive punches from a huge puncher who is very accurate with it. I don't see how Froch can avoid them and he's been hurt against Kessler, Taylor and Dirrell. Abraham for my money hits much harder than those guys. I'll have money on the Abraham KO and Abraham win. Regarding Saul Alvarez vs Hatton, it's probably the closest thing to a full bankjob you'll get. Lump on Alvarez. Anything around 1/5 would be gobbled up immediately.

[Matt]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Missed out on the Ukranian 7/2 pts, so playing 0.25 pt each on Hatton via MD @ 20/1 and Nuzhenko MD @ 28/1 Skybet.

Very unlucky there mate, I would have had a bit of hope for that at the end of the 12.

Froch will be losing to Abraham regardless of the date of the fight. This is going to be a hard fight for Froch and he will be taking massive punches from a huge puncher who is very accurate with it

Yup, Froch will have to seriously tighten up that defence or he might even be seeing some canvas in that scrap.....cant get hit by AA the way he was being hit by Kessler. Looking forward to tonight, first time I'm going to watch Bradley, PaulM was raving about him last time we spoke....like said above, he has to send a message out tonight as well.

[Matt]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread David Tua :\ Worst thing about it was he was lucky to get a draw, think any thought of him returning to the top ranks of the heavyweight division are now finished......

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Hmm.. I wouldn't be backing Tua ITD myself. Tua kind of reminds me of Rocky Juarez. He has talent and skill but at times can just be a lazy fighter in there. His last fight was a 12 round decision against Friday Ahunanya... a very limited fighter, who has only been stopped once in fairness, but with Tuas power, a stoppage was expected. Instead he laboured to a points win, and this is what he might do here if Barrett is moving well. Barrett just went the distance with Ustinov. However, I think you are right about him not wanting to take much punishment at this stage. His desire has gone. But I just can't trust Tua to stop him, any more than I would trust Rocky Juarez to stop anybody. I'm not saying for one second that Barrett will win the fight... he may well get stopped. But David Tua is a very lazy fighter. I would leave this fight alone.. there are better opportunities coming up.

Fair play to you mate. And to Monte.

[PAULM03]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Looking forward to tonight, first time I'm going to watch Bradley, PaulM was raving about him last time we spoke....like said above, he has to send a message out tonight as well.

Haven't seen the fight, just downloading it now. An almost complete shutout from what I hear? I say this in all seriousness: Bradley has got the all round game to do well in a fight with Pac. Probably wouldn't win, but he'd give him more of a run for his money than ODLH, Hatton, Cotto or Clottey have. I was sad to read a piece by Bob Arum claiming that a fight with pac would never be made because of promotional issues (basically saying he didn't want to give Bradley a payday). I don't know why Top rank and golden boy don't just start their own championships and have done with it.

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Green ITD @ 4/7 won't last come fight night imo. I'll be having a good bet on not to go the distance. Two warriors who, after plenty of sparring in days gone by, know exactly what each bring to the table. Will be expecting warfare, if not in the first, then definitely 2nd round onwards. With the concerns over Briggs' health record, and with a three year hiatus, how much will he be allowed to take, when the heavy shots continue to land? He can bang himself (huge odds out there), so the action while it lasts should be explosive. If the ref does'nt step in (and how long will the ref allow, given the publicity over Briggs) can see Briggs' corner having a say. Tua bolloxed an alexander double up last night, but putting another one up. Can't for the life of me, see how Kotelnik gets anything from their meeting. Doe'snt even have an equaliser in his mitts to make alexander respect him. A virtual clinic from the talented yank. Alexander via pts @ 2.00 is huge, and will drop, but would'nt be surprised if he forced a late stoppage. Green v Briggs Not to go distance and Alexander outright @ 1.79 sportingbet ..10 pts. Green Briggs Not go dist' @ 1.40 ..20 pts sportingbet. Green Briggs Under 9.5 rds @ 4/6 boyles (expect this to dip)..6 pts Anyone thats not read it..Briggs' book is a belter.

[pulio]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Fair play to you mate. And to Monte.

Thanks mate, Tua can't be trusted!!

[pulio]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Green ITD @ 4/7 won't last come fight night imo. I'll be having a good bet on not to go the distance. Two warriors who, after plenty of sparring in days gone by, know exactly what each bring to the table. Will be expecting warfare, if not in the first, then definitely 2nd round onwards. With the concerns over Briggs' health record, and with a three year hiatus, how much will he be allowed to take, when the heavy shots continue to land? He can bang himself (huge odds out there), so the action while it lasts should be explosive. If the ref does'nt step in (and how long will the ref allow, given the publicity over Briggs) can see Briggs' corner having a say. Tua bolloxed an alexander double up last night, but putting another one up. Can't for the life of me, see how Kotelnik gets anything from their meeting. Doe'snt even have an equaliser in his mitts to make alexander respect him. A virtual clinic from the talented yank. Alexander via pts @ 2.00 is huge, and will drop, but would'nt be surprised if he forced a late stoppage. Green v Briggs Not to go distance and Alexander outright @ 1.79 sportingbet ..10 pts. Green Briggs Not go dist' @ 1.40 ..20 pts sportingbet. Green Briggs Under 9.5 rds @ 4/6 boyles (expect this to dip)..6 pts Anyone thats not read it..Briggs' book is a belter.

Good points on Briggs and Green. The point about the public concerns about Briggs health is a good one. The referee will be cognizant of it and will not allow Briggs to get pummelled too badly. I've taken the 4/7 on boylesports. As for Kotelnik vs Alexander, it's a pretty safe fight for Alexander. I expect Kotelnik to last the distance though.

[pulio]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread There is a decent bet coming up this Friday on FNF. Stuart Hall vs Martin Power. They fought last September on the first Fury vs McDermott card and Hall proceeded to win every round and then KO Power in the 8th round. This is a 12 rounder. Hall is not a big puncher but the accumulation of punches is what did Power in the end. I think Hall will be extra confident and the ghosts of the first fight will still be there for Power. I can see this fight galvanising Halls superiority and finishing the same way. Power couldn't win a round last time and he isn't the sort of fighter who is going to learn new things at this point. He was retired a few years ago and came back only to get KO'd in 8 rounds by Hall so is his belief and desire really there? Stan James go 1/4 for Hall to win. Sportingbet go evens for Hall to win by KO, a price that I expect to shorten considerably by fightnight. I can't guarantee a KO win for Hall so I will have money on both, ensuring that I break even if Hall wins on points. This is a good bet.

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

There is a decent bet coming up this Friday on FNF. Stuart Hall vs Martin Power. They fought last September on the first Fury vs McDermott card and Hall proceeded to win every round and then KO Power in the 8th round. This is a 12 rounder. Hall is not a big puncher but the accumulation of punches is what did Power in the end. I think Hall will be extra confident and the ghosts of the first fight will still be there for Power. I can see this fight galvanising Halls superiority and finishing the same way. Power couldn't win a round last time and he isn't the sort of fighter who is going to learn new things at this point. He was retired a few years ago and came back only to get KO'd in 8 rounds by Hall so is his belief and desire really there? Stan James go 1/4 for Hall to win. Sportingbet go evens for Hall to win by KO, a price that I expect to shorten considerably by fightnight. I can't guarantee a KO win for Hall so I will have money on both, ensuring that I break even if Hall wins on points. This is a good bet.

Thats the logical outcome but a little caution advised maybe. When Hall beat Power last time it was at a catchweight and this will only be Halls second fight down at bantam, a weight Power is fully familiar with. I may be wrong but I thought Napa was coming on strong and reckon he wouldve retained his title if he didnt feel amiss. Like I say that is the logical outcome but I quite rated Power before his losses to Munbayi (all credit for taking the immediate rematch mind) Power has got guts so Id expect him to be fird up for this one. Whether he has the ability is another matter but it seems common knowledge that Hall is busting a gut at this weight.:ok

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Briggs v Green Tricky fight to call as Briggs was a beast in his day. That said for Briggs 3 years out of action, a rejection from the NSW commision and a heavy handed opponent doesnt bode well to me. i think that sturdy jaw of his should prevail for a while but as mentioned earlier a mercy stoppage seems a reasonable call, my only concern being former sparring partners doing just that but I think Green is on a mission to prove himself for a biggie. See greens punches catching up with a semi defenseless Briggs wit the ref having to intervene in the 2nd half of the fight. Recommended bet 10pts Green bt Briggs 7-12 13/8 SportingBet

[pulio]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Thats the logical outcome but a little caution advised maybe. When Hall beat Power last time it was at a catchweight and this will only be Halls second fight down at bantam' date=' a weight Power is fully familiar with. I may be wrong but I thought Napa was coming on strong and reckon he wouldve retained his title if he didnt feel amiss. Like I say that is the logical outcome but I quite rated Power before his losses to Munbayi (all credit for taking the immediate rematch mind) Power has got guts so Id expect him to be fird up for this one. Whether he has the ability is another matter but it seems common knowledge that Hall is busting a gut at this weight.:ok[/quote'] Good point about the weight. It could be an issue. Hall was nearly 120 for their last fight and will be 118 for this one. 2 pounds can be a lot in the lower divisions. But such was his domination last time, I don't think he will have too many problems. I don't rate Power as much as you do. Hall was sticking in there with napa at this weight (I also think Napa would have beaten him but he did make Napa quit), and I think Power won't provide as much resistance as Napa did. I think 2/7 is a good price with boylesports and they go 11/10 for the KO.

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Gevor v Sartisan Cant get away from this one as I see Gevor as the selection, though the slight dog. Simply put i believe Gevor has been in with the more talented opposition and although has more losses 2 were spirited against decent champ and 2 losses on cuts to Konceny(who fights Rhodes on the Magnificent 7 card). What you see is what you gat with a fighter like Gevor and I just cant get away from the preices with someone with so much in their favour. Sartisan has only suffered one loss but has bounced back solidly since being outclassed by Kessler with his best win arguably comng in his last fight. He should be tough to beat but I priced Gevor about 4/6 for this fight so going to take advantage of the books and get better than the Evs quoted. Recommended bets 50 pts total Gevor bt Sartison Dec/TD 12/5 Lads (35 pts) Gevor bt Sartison Stoppage 4/1 SportingBet (15 pts)

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Good point about the weight. It could be an issue. Hall was nearly 120 for their last fight and will be 118 for this one. 2 pounds can be a lot in the lower divisions. But such was his domination last time' date=' I don't think he will have too many problems. I don't rate Power as much as you do. Hall was sticking in there with napa at this weight (I also think Napa would have beaten him but he did make Napa quit), and I think Power won't provide as much resistance as Napa did. I think 2/7 is a good price with boylesports and they go 11/10 for the KO.[/quote'] To be honest I see it the same way as you, was just pointing out my reasons for not playing at those prices - though I seriously see the temptation with 11/10. Weather Hall struggled/was behind/on cusp of fading or not he didnt quit like Npaa did (harsh relaity) so in a way has already shown mental and physical strength and kudos to him for that. Though remember he has never been past the 8th. For the record I dont rate Power 'highly' - I thought he was a prospect with some impressive wins until pretty much taking too much from Munbayi. But Power has got a serious set of balls and will give it everything he has therefore I dont neceserily see it as a formality (especially with the weight concerns but whether it will go that deep, and if it effects will be interesting).:ok

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Guess Ive talke ny self into thid one... 2.5 pts Power bt Hall pts 8/1 Boyles 2.5 pts Power Power bt Hall stoppage 13/2 lads

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Other bets taken.....will justify later - 10 pts each Cloud bt Johnson stoppage (huge compared to other books) 5/1 Bet365 Jennings bt Brook (sure Jennings was BP 7/2 Last time Brook 1/4?) Diaz bt Marquez Dec/TD 9/2 BET365

[IronG]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Other bets taken.....will justify later - 10 pts each Cloud bt Johnson stoppage (huge compared to other books) 5/1 Bet365 Jennings bt Brook (sure Jennings was BP 7/2 Last time Brook 1/4?) Diaz bt Marquez Dec/TD 9/2 BET365

How can Diaz beat Marquez? Diaz is beyond shot and Marquez is a top 5 P4P fighter. No way Diaz beats Marquez; it will be waayyyy more one-sided than their last fight.

[pulio]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

How can Diaz beat Marquez? Diaz is beyond shot and Marquez is a top 5 P4P fighter. No way Diaz beats Marquez; it will be waayyyy more one-sided than their last fight.

Yeah I agree. I'm interested to hear superfoos thoughts on the diaz marquez fight. I have already gone heavily into Marquez and have him in a few accumulators to KO Diaz. Basically I think Diazs punch resistance has gone (malignaggi shook him up bad) and he has already been beaten by Marquez who has him figured out. There is a massive skill differential and Diaz is going to be walking on to counters all night. The only way Diaz possibly wins is a robbery on the cards imo. The question marks for JMM are that he is coming down in weight but I don't think that will be too much of an issue. Also interested in your other picks superfoo, cloud vs johnson and jennings over brook.. might give me something more to think about. as of now i would be taking brook at 1/5 and leaving cloud alone but interested to hear your thoughts :ok

[pulio]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Other bets taken.....will justify later - 10 pts each Cloud bt Johnson stoppage (huge compared to other books) 5/1 Bet365 Jennings bt Brook (sure Jennings was BP 7/2 Last time Brook 1/4?) Diaz bt Marquez Dec/TD 9/2 BET365

Quick question superfoo. When you say 10pts on each bet, what is the total points of the bank you are playing with? Cheers mate.

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Quick question superfoo. When you say 10pts on each bet' date=' what is the total points of the bank you are playing with? Cheers mate.[/quote'] Starting bank of 1000. Never bet more than 10% of stake on what bet. Everything is outlined in post 1.....I think!:ok

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Other bets taken.....will justify later - 10 pts each Cloud bt Johnson stoppage (huge compared to other books) 5/1 Bet365 Jennings bt Brook (sure Jennings was BP 7/2 Last time Brook 1/4?) Diaz bt Marquez Dec/TD 9/2 BET365

I took these bets as I thought they were all overpriced. Im not saying all or any for that matter will win. I may lay a couple but tbh Im relatively happy with those prices. In essence I think they are value bets. Marqez/Diaz - Marquez is rightly favoured to confirm his superiority after his stunning ko in the original. Combine this with Diaz poor form and you can see why the books price Marquez as a 1/3 favourite. I just have a nag that this may not be as straight forward as it seems. This is a fight Diaz really wanted and he genuinely feels he has the game to beat Marquez and has been quite frank about his ko stating his carelessness but before the stoppage (and I do realise Marquez was coming on strong) the fight was dead even and lets not forget that this was 2009s fight of the year so it was certainly competitive. Marquez has a terrible habit of starting very poorly and if Diaz can build an early lead he may only need to take a couple of rounds in the second half of the fight, which if he can back to the accurate busy punching that saw him as a 3 belt champ for a couple of years. Also, Marquez is coming in from the most punishing bout in his career taking on the p4p champ at 2 weights north of his highest fighting weight. Marquez is a class fighter but I think he took needless punishment towards the end with his corner imploring him to use his pride to see the final bell, this to me isnt ideal for a guy who turns 37 next month. There are many reasons why you would oppse Diaz in this fight but the main fear at the moment is his punch resistance and there is rightly a serious fear he may be shot but at the odds a chance Im willing to take. Also I think someone mentioned Diaz lack of a plan B, I would agree with this and its something I really hope he has prepared one for when Marquez once again finds his range. On the whole Diaz chin really does worry me but it wont be through lack of heart if he is stopped.

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Quote:

Originally Posted by superfoo Other bets taken.....will justify later - 10 pts each Cloud bt Johnson stoppage (huge compared to other books) 5/1 >Bet365 Jennings bt Brook (sure Jennings was BP 7/2 Last time Brook 1/4?) Diaz bt Marquez Dec/TD 9/2 >Bet365

I took these bets as I thought they were all overpriced. Im not saying all or any for that matter will win. I may lay a couple but tbh Im relatively happy with those prices. In essence I think they are value bets. Cloud/Johnson - Had second thoughts about this one and I should never really doubt Johnsons granite jaw. Cloud has a serious ko ratio over lower level fighters but the trend continued when he was the first to stop Gonzalez and then gave a diminished Woods all he could handle and the ref probably had reason to step in that one. The price was massive I felt and can easily be traded or covered. Tricky to call but seemed the best value there.

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Green "KO's" Briggs in one. For anyone who has'nt seen it.... http://www.twitvid.com/ITQTH Always going to be dodgy with Sven Goran as ref :rollinThe replay has the better picture btw. Chuffed as a punter on the right result, but ashamed, as a lover of the sport. Early reaction, is Briggs' purse to be witheld. Scandalous stuff from the Aussie cult hero, and on PPV too. :(

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Pretty embarassing stuff that, Green visibly disappointed as well - no fault of his though. I cant really say I think Briggs faked it but there may some serios concerns behing d the scenes. Was greedy and went 7-12 but the NSW commision was warning enough.