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Everything posted by LtfcPete

  1. Alexander to stop Bailey is 4/1 at Ladbrokes, anyone else think this is huge? Bailey was absolutely dreadful against Jones, landing the hail mary in the 11th to somehow get the win despite being down 99-91 on one scorecard. I thought he looked ready to go a couple of times and generally looked done. He's been stopped 3 times and at 37 I can see another one coming here. It's been a while since Alexander stopped anyone but no one has stopped Bradley, Kotelnik, Matthyse or Maidana so that is hardly surprising. Looks great value to me.. `anyone else?
  2. Re: February Boxing/MMA J.Chavez Jr to bt. M.Rubio 10pts 1.29 Bodog J.Chavez Jr to bt. M.Rubio 7-12 2pts 4.33 Skybet I might be overlooking the challenger here but I don’t see him as much of a threat to Chavez in this one. I know many think that the son of the legend Julio Cesar Chavez is where he is solely due to his name and that he is a sitting duck for potential challengers, but he has shown real improvement over the last few fights. He throws a lot of punches and can take a shot whilst showing some progress skills wise of late. The crowd will be heavily pro-Chavez and I really don’t see Rubio getting a decision in Mexico, even though he himself is a native. Rubio has had a bit of a resurgence after getting pasted by Pavlik a few years back but hasn’t really beaten anyone. His stoppage of Lemieux looked great at the time but he Canadian was shown to be a one trick pony against the 35 year old Joachim Alcine last time out. Chavez will also enjoy a size advantage against his foe who has been stopped 3 times in a long career and I think he could wind up stopping Rubio sometime in the second half. S.Cunningham/J.Chavez/N.Donaire/S.Quigg (1-12 any method)/V.Martirosyan 1-6 Accumulator 2pts 4.31 Skybet
  3. Re: February Boxing/MMA N.Donaire v W.Vazquez Jr Not to Go the Distance 6pts 1.40 Ladbrokes N.Donaire to bt. W.Vazquez Jr by KO, TKO or DQ 4pts 1.50 Ladbrokes This one has developed into a real grudge match it seems, with hat flipping and wives arguing at the weigh in last night so these two should be eager to get their hands on each other once the bell rings. Donaire has developed into a pound for pound contender and has almost unrivalled speed at this point. He has been at his explosive best of late, save for a dreary affair against the teak tough, sturdy and defensively minded Omar Narvaez last time out. Donaire was telling Roach in his corner that he was bored mid-fight in that one and it was easy to see why as Narvaez offered very little and was doing his best just to survive for large parts. In his last World Title outing, Vazquez was outgunned by Jorge Arce in a great fight, being stopped on his feet at the end of 12th round. He seemed out on his feet towards the end of the fight so conditioning may be an issue. Against Donaire, he isn’t going to be given much time to rest. He is himself a decent puncher though, stopping 18 of 21, although this has a lot to do with the way in which he fights. It is a manner which I think will suit Donaire down to the ground and he should be able to display once again why he is ranked so highly in the P4P rankings, stopping the less talented Puerto Rican who he should be able to dominate and overwhelm at some point.
  4. Re: February Boxing/MMA V.Martirosyan v T.Lowry Under 7.5 Rounds 9pts 1.33 Skybet V.Martirosyan 1-4 4pts 1.67 Skybet Troy Lowry, at 41, offers very little nowadays. He has been stopped in 5 of his last 6 bouts and only reached the 8th round in one of these bouts, that in 2006. He has just been brought in for Martirosyan to knock over here as the Armenian continues to tread water.
  5. Re: February Boxing/MMA An inauspicious start but hope to get it back today with a lot invested this evening.. S.Cunningham to bt. Y.P.Hernandez 4pts 1.91 Skybet S.Cunningham 7-12 1pt 8.00 Skybet S.Cunningham v Y.P.Hernandez Draw 0.15pts 26.0 Skybet Although Hernandez got the nod in the first fight, the outcome of the technical decision was a tad controversial. The fight was stopped in the 6th round of good back and forth affair but it seemed clear to me that Cunningham would’ve been the certain victor had the fight continued. Hernandez was fading badly and Cunningham has since remarked that he couldn’t believe how much energy had sapped from his opponent at barely the halfway mark. As such, Cunningham is brimming with confidence coming into this one. Conditioning will never be an issue for the American, although at 35 his age is certainly something to consider. The venue could be an issue, as Hernandez will be the house fighter in Germany but I think Cunningham is the pick here. S.Quigg to bt. J.Arthur by KO,TKO or DQ 10pts 1.36 Boyles S.Quigg v J.Arthur Under 9.5 Rounds 5pts 1.57 Ladbrokes Think Quigg walks through Arthur here. The challenger is game but he'll be there to hit and is coming off of a war with Jason Booth in which he lost a split decision. Booth was taught a lesson by Quigg in his next outing and although you can never use fight algebra to determine the outcomes in subsequent bouts, the two performances were pretty far apart and indicative of the class gap between the two. Arthur cuts up regularly and I expect he will be again tonight as he’s battered from pillar to post in a less than taxing night for the hot prospect.
  6. Not sure how regularly I’ll post up picks but it’d be nice to hear other opinions also. I guess I’ll just make this a combined monthly thread as that seems as good a method as any. Big weekend of fights across the two sports kicks off tonight. Here we go then.. T.Dodson to bt. O.McKenzie 3.5pts 3.50 Ladbrokes T.Dodson v O.McKenzie Draw 0.10pts 34.00 Skybet Kicking off with one I’ve been priced into. I really see this as a 50/50 kind of fight, McKenzie having the edge in power (although I think it’s somewhat overrated) with Dodson by far the better pure boxer of the two. Dodson has a tendency to be cut in fights but has said that the move up in weight will help him from being so dry. If Dodson can stay upright I give him a really good chance in this one. His best mate Tony Bellew showed the blueprint to beat McKenzie and it isn’t the most complex route to victory. I think this is the type of fight where we’ll know if we’ve got a run for our money after the first few rounds, which will be particularly dangerous for Dodson and at 3.50 it is definitely worth a moderate investment.
  7. Re: Paddy Power Last Man Standing Competition - £500 to the winner - PL Exclusive Any chance I could get the code by PM? Just seen this and I'm getting the 9.52 to London and so won't be able to get the code and do a team before 12.45!:wall
  8. LtfcPete

    GUKPT Luton

    Re: GUKPT Luton Yeah thanks guys, knocked out in 31st unfortunately. Card dead the whole way really, never had enough of a stack to make many moves. In the last 20 minutes or so I had my chips in 3 times pre flop: AK suited, split pot with AK; A9 split pot with A7 and then finally went out with 77 beaten by AK. Annoying in that I wouldn't have reraised all in with the 7s if I'd doubled up with one of the previous all ins but it wasn't to be. I also had 1010 UTG with which I was planning to move all in with but I made a string bet and had to just call :lol .. got a caller from the small blind and a check from big blind, flop came 456 all diamonds and I had to fold. That was on the featured table too so I made sure the maximum amount of people saw me do that! Lesson learnt the hard way. Overall it was a great experience and I had a great time, just would've been nice to hold on a bit longer!
  9. LtfcPete

    GUKPT Luton

    Re: GUKPT Luton Okay bud, will do. Do you know if there are dealers? Might sound silly but I can deal about as well as I can do a backflip so I'm a bit concerned about that! For anyone interested it looks like they'll be streaming it online through pokernews.com although I'm not sure if it's just the final table or whatever. Good luck to you too. :hope
  10. LtfcPete

    GUKPT Luton

    Anyone playing in this? I won entry to it.. only ever played live once before and I'm pretty sure I'm going to be well out of my depth!
  11. Re: UFC 128 I dunno andy, I think Jones is going to implement a gameplan involving a lot of smart pressure and takedowns. I think he g'n'p's his way to a stoppage win. I'm on Schaub and Marquardt too :hope
  12. Re: 2011 Boxing Thread HAHAHAHA Yes that was very funny, especially as if it had gone one single second longer then myself and wrimc would've won big as Solis would've been retired due to his injury. Also, I've no idea why you chose to comment but if you did follow boxing you'd know Solis looked as good as he ever has as a pro so nothing whatsoever was decided at the weigh in. If you add up Suda's cut, Mayorga's hand injury, Solis' leg injury and Laryea's hand injury I've had some pretty rough luck these past week with freak occurrences. It'd be nice if Bute can follow the script as Rigondeaux finished his fight early doors also although it must be said he looked absolutely awesome so no complaints there. :hope
  13. Re: 2011 Boxing Thread I like that one a lot, must've missed it going to have a punt on it myself. :ok V.Klitschko to bt. O.Solis by RTD 1.5pts 26.00 Skybet
  14. Re: 2011 Boxing Thread +106.45pts for the year.. O.Afolabi to bt. L.Suda on pts (After 12 Rounds) 7.5pts 1.80 Skybet O.Afolabi to bt. L.Suda 10-12 1pt 7.00 Skybet O.Afolabi v L.Suda Draw 0.25pts 34.00 Skybet Suda seems to be a durable type, his only stoppage defeat coming from an injury against Alexander Kotlobay. Afolabi is a strange type of boxer; he’s very awkward and borderline lazy at times. He’s not much of a puncher, stopping only 6 of 15. He looks to be a cut above Suda though who at 35 has lost widely each time he’s been stepped up in competition. Afolabi is the house fighter here and I expect him to win on the cards. V.Klitschko to bt. O.Solis 7-12 10pts 3.00 Skybet V.Klitschko to bt. O.Solis by Unanimous Decision 4pts 3.75 Skybet I don’t see Solis, for all his talent, beating Klitschko here. Although I thought he looked stiff against Sosnowski, he was never in any trouble and used that piston jab to control the fight and then followed this by looking years younger against Briggs which makes you think he may have taken the Pole somewhat lightly. I don’ think he’ll do the same with Solis, who is a guy who really shouldn’t be a heavyweight when you consider the weight he was when he had so much success in the amateurs and also when you see how much extra timber he carries, but is nevertheless very talented. There’s about a 46lbs difference from Solis’ amateur weight to what he scaled yesterday. To illustrate his fleshiness, he weighed in just 3lbs less than the champion but will be giving up at least five and a half inches in height to Klitschko. To be fair, that’s relatively slender for him but I think that the height difference is going to be the biggest factor to overcome. I feel like there’s a chance he can take Klitschko all the way but I think the bet is for the Ukrainian to end it in the second half of the fight. Solis’ general condition makes you question his heart and commitment and I have a feeling that if he takes even half of the punishment that Shannon Briggs took in Klitschko’s last bout then he’ll find a way out. He doesn’t seem the type to go balls out to get the win and I don’t think he has much of a chance. W.Casey to bt. G.Rigondeaux 7-12 2.5pts 15.00 SportingBet G.Rigondeaux to bt. W.Casey 7-12 7.5pts 3.60 SportingBet W.Casey v G.Rigondeaux Draw 0.25pts 41.00 Betfred With regards to the first selection I just feel there’s a chance of this one coming off. Rigondeaux is much the better boxer but Casey will have a fair size advantage and has nothing to lose. I expect Casey to make this a fight and he could surprise the little Cuban with his pressure and aggression. If Casey has been taken lightly by Rigondeaux then I think the Irishman can make him pay and maybe catch him. He’ll be cheered on by the home crowd which really can make a difference as we’ve seen in many Irish arenas in the past. However, Rigondeaux is vastly superior to Casey in terms of skill and experience and he won’t be facing an elusive type like Cordoba who gave him some trouble in his last outing. Casey will be there to hit, it’s just a matter of whether he can stop the Irishman. I feel he’ll be hit cleanly too many times and I think a late stoppage is the likely outcome on paper. I’ll be having the larger than usual saver on Casey though as I think it’s a great price and Rigondeaux has the sort of style that I think could see him upset sometime in near future. L.Bute to bt. B.Magee 7-12 7.5pts 3.00 (7-9/10-12 Dutched) Bet365 L.Bute to bt. B.Magee by Decision or Technical Decision 2.5pts 4.00 Bet365 You have to be tough as nails to go the distance with Bute at the minute. Overall, the Romanian has stopped 22 of 27 but is in the midst of a really brutal run of form. He’s stopped 6 of his last 7 opponents and the only 2 he hasn’t in the past 4 years are the particularly hard Sakio Bika and Librado Andrade. Bute stopped Andrade in a rematch, dispatching him in 4 and forcing the Mexican’s first stoppage loss. Bute is perhaps the best of the 168lb crop at the moment, and that’s saying a lot with the current batch of super middles. Magee won’t stand much of a chance here in my opinion, he’s a good boxer but at 35 has seen better days. He’s no stranger to the floor, having been stopped by Carl Froch in 2006 and was down 5 times in 2 combined bouts with Robin Reid and Jerry Elliot in 2004. I fancy Bute to continue his tear here tonight. L.Walsh/V.Klitschko/L.Bute/G.Rigondeaux 4-fold 10pts 1.80 Boyles
  15. Re: 2011 Boxing Thread That Foreman tip was possibly the worst piece of advice I've ever given, certainly underestimated Wolak. Great shout with Vasquez foo, dominated the fight and it went as closely to a script as you could imagine really. Zappavigna really needs to go back to fundamentals. Seemed to me like a poor man's Rios-Acosta that bout. Mayorga's hand injury cost me a profit there, 2 minutes away from it and Cotto never looked like stopping him before that. Broke even on the Burns and Cotto fights, Boyles paid out on the McEwan-Lee bet so -12.97 for the day, down to +106.45pts for the year.
  16. Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Yeah, it seems that even in his home country he's not been judge-friendly so it'll be even harder across the pond I guess. Broke even on the Burns fight, good call foo. I was really not sure about this one but the more I think about Cotto the more I think he'll struggle to get Mayorga out of there; I expect him to be somewhat gunshy against a bigger guy with decent pop. Could live to regret this one though. As foo says, it's a great price and Mayorga looked much better at the weigh in than he did before his scheduled bout with Din Thomas.. M.Cotto to bt. R.Mayorga by Decision or Technical Decision 6pts 4.50 SportingBet M.Cotto to bt. R.Mayorga 10-12 1pt 7.00 Bet365
  17. Re: 2011 Boxing Thread If he keeps it to the body as he did in the first 3 this has got a good chance I think, got away from them in the 4th though...
  18. Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Back to +119.42pts for the year after Hatton’s survival against Alvarez.. R.Burns to bt. J.Laryea by Decision or Technical Decision 7.5pts 2.38 StanJames R.Burns to bt. J.Laryea 7-12 3pts 3.50 Skybet I’m reticent to take Burns to stop anyone to be honest, he had a big size and reach advantage against Evensen last time out but never looked like getting the little Norweigan out of there, he had Martinez hurt at times but couldn’t stop him and the last guy he stopped was a shot Michael Gomez two years ago. However, I think there’s a fairly big gulf in class here and this could see Burns chopping his way to a stoppage. Laryea is a strange one, he looked decent against Appleby but the Scot never turned up and the Ghanaians record isn’t the best. He doesn’t look the most durable either, Appleby hurt him to the body early in their bout and he’s been stopped in Ghana before. He’s big and rangy and holds advantages over Burns in those areas. Burns certainly doesn’t strike me as someone who’ll look past a fight like Appleby did perhaps and he’s not one to get involved in a shootout so I think a points win is the most likely outcome. With these stakes the points win will return almost even money. C.McEwan v A.Lee Over 9.5 Rounds 7.5pts 1.67 Boylesports Fancy this one to go the distance, neither has thunderous power and both are very evenly matched in my opinion, although I’ve not seen as much of McEwan as I have of Lee. The pair have met in the amateurs with Lee winning on points and I’d be surprised if this one doesn’t last the 10 round distance. Y.Foreman to bt. P.Wolak by Decision or Technical Decision 7.5pts 1.90 Ladbrokes I agree with Dafs here, Wolak is very crude and you certainly know what you’re going to get with him. He’ll bring pressure and won’t be discouraged by being outboxed, which I expect him to be here. It was alarming to see the size of the brace on Foreman’s knee last time out against Cotto but you have to assume this has healed somewhat coming into this one. Over the 10 round distance I can see him comfortably collecting rounds by boxing from range and staying away from Wolak’s swarms. The gulf in class is palpable, hopefully Foreman’s in good condition with regards to his knee and if he is I can see him winning this comfortably. S.Martinez to bt. S.Dzinziruk by Decision or Technical Decision 10pts 1.83 Ladbrokes S.Martinez v S.Dzinziruk Draw 0.5pts 29.00 Skybet I think this one goes the distance here and will likely be one for the purists. Dzinziruk is a jab heavy type and a much more mechanical type of boxer than the cute Martinez and holds a good guard. Martinez’ KO of the year contender against Williams last time out flatters to deceive somewhat. Williams was wild and lunged in, something Dzinziruk is unlikely to replicate. Dzinziruk’s good defensive approach is part of the reason he has amassed a 37-0 record but also part of the reason he remains far beyond star status. I don’t see Martinez finishing Dzinziruk mainly because I don’t think the Ukrainian will put himself in a situation to be stopped. It could be tight but I think Martinez will be able to produce enough offensively to take this one on the scorecards.
  19. Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Yeah I got on at 16/1.. never seen someone decked from body shots 4(?) times and recover to see out the fight. The whole second half of that fight was surreal, Foster kept going down but seemed to have a fair amount of energy left. Not sure he's ever going to be one you can trust with your money.
  20. Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Yeah, virus or not that was not good from Foster. I think he's got some mental problems, there was always likely to be an excuse like that. The knockdowns were bizarre. Back to +144.42pts for the year. S.Alvarez to bt. M.Hatton 1-12 (any method) 10pts 1.50 Skybet S.Alvarez to bt. M.Hatton 1-6 7.5pts 2.75 Skybet S.Alvarez v M.Hatton Under 9 Rounds 7.5pts 1.91 Skybet Might as well take these now, can’t see any reason the prices would rise. Alvarez is already a few levels above Hatton who is stiff, slow and very ordinary. I don’t see any outcome other than Alvarez blitzing him into submission, Hatton doesn’t have the power to keep Alvarez from charging forward and throwing hard shots at him which will prove his downfall. I really don’t see what Hatton can do to even be competitive in this fight. I guess there is a danger this goes into the last quarter of the fight but I’m willing to take the risk. Hatton has been stopped before by a guy who had 10 fights in his entire career and was in trouble early against light hitting Nuzhnenko. Alvarez hits with real authority and isn’t backwards in coming forwards, he’ll take shots to get his off and with Hatton having little pop I just can see the bigger Mexican overwhelming Hatton early on.
  21. Re: 2011 Boxing Thread I like the 'not to go the distance' here - both good punchers and it looks certain to be a firefight. Rios is similar to Urbano Antillon and Acosta stopped him away from home.. we saw how hard that is to do when Antillon fought Soto last year. Not sure if I'll take it yet but the price is dropping so I'll have to make up my mind soon!
  22. Re: 2011 Boxing Thread S.Foster to bt. E.Fegatilli by KO, TKO or DQ 8pts 2.38 StanJames This one looks pretty straightforward to me but I’m going in blind a little bit. Fegatilli has lost four times already and now faces his best opponent to date in Foster. He’s won his last 8 but it’s mostly filled with cans. There’s no footage of him anywhere apparently, which speaks volumes but also means we can only go on his record which is lacklustre to say the least. This bout looks very much like the Hatton-Belge one from a few months back, Foster being promoted by Hatton’s team, and I don’t see any problems whatsoever for Foster on home ground against a guy with no power. Fegatilli hasn’t fought even a 10 rounder for nearly 3 years and nicely fits the role of opponent for Foster here. Over 12 I’d expect the class difference to show and Foster’s confidence should be sky high after knocking out Kirakosyan. Foster has stopped two thirds of his opponents in total and can do it again here.
  23. Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Winners all round by the looks of it. Good stuff. Donaire is something special, Jones looked gunshy to me, could've stopped Karass but I think he was worried about his tank. Fury's opponent was hopeless, Olubamiwo is hopeless, Theophane was excellent as was Gavin. +73.21pts for the night, up to +152.42pts for the year.
  24. Re: 2011 Boxing Thread M.Jones to bt. J.Karass 7-12 4pts 5.50 Skybet M.Jones to bt. J.Karass on pts 7.5pts 2.10 SportingBet I guess this one goes to the cards, as Johnny alluded to. I do think there is a really good chance though that Jones stops Karass so I’ll take a punt on him to do so. If he’s a bit more considered than the first fight it will help him a lot and could lead to him causing more damage over a sustained period of time. He will surely be in better shape this time around and take a better approach, he’ll be full of confidence knowing that Karass couldn’t beat him even on his worst day.
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