Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[Elchubb]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Nice start to the day Mileni! :beer:beer

[Aidymac]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

Uttoxeter 12.05 Real Milan 1pt EW - 11/1 BetInternet Quite surprised at this price. Could be backed at 13+ on the exchanges as I write this. Won his last bumper and should make a fine hurdler. Not quite sure why 2nd favourite is that short. Fav could be classy, but certainly the Donald McCain horse shouldn't be that big.

Lovely winner! :clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Bet you had your finger hovering over the 'jockey thread' for a minute there. :loon good day :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

Bet you had your finger hovering over the 'jockey thread' for a minute there. :loon good day :ok

What's this shit all over TV and twitter? "Great ride" by the commentator. Matt Chapman labeled it "horse racing artistry". He could've easily lost the race. If the horse wasn't 2 stones ahead of the handicapper, he would've never got there. Winner slipped him. No complaints though. Result's what matters. Serious horse this. Definitely Grade material.

[bowles10]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

What's this shit all over TV and twitter? "Great ride" by the commentator. Matt Chapman labeled it "horse racing artistry". He could've easily lost the race. If the horse wasn't 2 stones ahead of the handicapper, he would've never got there. Winner slipped him. No complaints though. Result's what matters. Serious horse this. Definitely Grade material.

seemed a decent ride to me, he kept it out of the way on the inside all the way round and was always going to catch the winner who couldnt sustain the gallop til the end. good winner mileni

[BillyHills]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Chapman and Murphy are big pals Milen, always talks him up when he gets the chance. :clap

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Good stuff as always Mileni:clap What do you think of The Sawyer's chances at Haydock tomorrow mate? With conditions to suit and a fair mark 20/1 looks mighty big to me.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

seemed a decent ride to me, he kept it out of the way on the inside all the way round and was always going to catch the winner who couldnt sustain the gallop til the end. good winner mileni

Maybe he knew he had the horse under him to catch the leader, so he didn't mind to wait. As far as I'm concerned leader slipped the whole field and was given a great ride. Any other day he wins this, but just met a future grade performer here. On another day similar ride, the result changes and Murphy will look silly in my eyes that he has lost on a horse, who had 20lbs in hand. He's done it before and I've been on the end of it :D

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

Good stuff as always Mileni:clap What do you think of The Sawyer's chances at Haydock tomorrow mate? With conditions to suit and a fair mark 20/1 looks mighty big to me.

Thanks mate :ok I stopped backing him long time ago. I usually don't like horses going down in the handicap, only those that are going up. He's just not my type. He'd be one of the first I would usually scratch when looking at the card. Not saying you should do it as well though. Stick to your own opinion.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Ascot 12.55 Stormhoek 0.75pt EW - 33/1 gen Decent novice and bumper form for Alan King. Was off the track with an injury and came back 3 weeks ago when finishing 4th of 5, but led for a long way and shaped up as if he was in need of the run. Tongue-tie applied today and this yard can definitely train them to win after layoffs. Worth a shot at the price. 1.25 Politeo 1pt EW - 9/2 Lads Finished 2nd here lto and today's ground should suit him more. Yard in fantastic form and I'm not so sure on few of his rivals. McCain's always finds a way to lose and comes after a break. The two top weights might prefer better ground. The favourite has gone up the weights a lot and his last race wasn't that strong, so he could be vulnerable. 3.05 Massini's Maguire 1pt win - 6/1 Coral SpBet 11/2 PP Getting Richard Johson instead of O'Farrell or Scudamore is not very good, but I still have to back the horse. He would have been much bigger bet with someone else on board however. Dickie almost killed him in his novice career and it needed change of stable and Tom Scu to give the horse confidence to win over C&D last year. Always goes well fresh and I think he could be grade performer, but just can't be that keen with Johnson on. 3.35 Prospect Wells 2pt EW (already advised) Haydock 2.10 Moonlight Drive 1.5pt win - 7/1 BetFred Tote Pateese 1.5pt win - 12/1 Coral SJ Difficult race to solve, but going with 2 against the field. The John Quinn horse has some decent novice form and is unexposed. Returns from chasing probably to exploit his hurdle mark. Pateese disappointed at Cheltenham lto, but I think he genuinely needs soft ground. While the trip is a bit of a worry he used to stay distances on the flat in France, so I'm hoping he'll stay. Certainly still well handicapped and jockey's allowance a big help too. 2.45 Cannington Brook 1.5pt EW - 7/1 BetFred Tote Another novice, who could improve going handicapping. Trainer has always said he thinks he is very good and even mentioned him as Welsh National candidate. Today's conditions will suit him and jocking off Joe for Tom O'Brien is like having Messi instead of Nicklas Bendtner playing for you. Unexposed and should improve. Not sure there are that many well handicapped horses in the race and fav might be a bit underpriced as well.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Newcastle 1.05 Jubail 0.75pt win - 10/1 PP WH Some very good form as a novice for Alan King last year. Moved yards and hasn't shown anything in 2 runs this season, but has been given a break and might come refreshed and run better today. Weak race and he'll have very lowe weight, so I'm gonna have a small nibble.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

Welsh National As De Fer 1pt EW 25/1 Viking Blond 1pt EW - 20/1

Cannington Brook 0.75pt EW - 33/1 BoDog Hopefully if Joe Tizzard is on Hey Big Spender Tom will keep the ride on CB. Gave him a cracking ride today and the horse just got lonely in front and idled. Reminded me a bit of Ballabriggs, who did the same at Cheltenham, but then won the National. Will be touch and go if CB gets in, but should be money back if he's balloted out. No way this price will hold. I think he could be 10s on the day. I can see him being a seriously good horse over marathon distances as the season progresses.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Carlisle 3.30 Cranberry Ice 0.5pt EW - 66/1 VC Just a speculative one on a horse I think will be suited by the conditions and might run better than his price suggests. Yard is in form and 7lb claim could be very handy on the ground.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

Carlisle 3.30 Cranberry Ice 0.5pt EW - 66/1 VC Just a speculative one on a horse I think will be suited by the conditions and might run better than his price suggests. Yard is in form and 7lb claim could be very handy on the ground.

Smashing call 3rd :clap

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

Smashing call 3rd :clap

Thanks Ted. Thought he was gonna win when he made the move 4 out, but was too keen early to do himself any justice. Plus winner is probably quite decent. Well happy with the place though. Onwards and upwards :)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Plumpton 2.00 Jordan 0.5pt EW - 14/1 PP VC Lightly raced for his age and might improve over fences. Good claimer on board offsetting 5lbs and the ground and trip should suit. Not a particularly strong race for its grade and he could run better than price suggests if tuned up on seasonal reappearance.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Musselburgh 2.20 Royal Opera 1pt EW - 4/1 gen 3yo and gets weight from the field. Bolted up lto albeit in a weak race, but handicap debut and could improve. Used to be pretty decent on the flat and trainer does pretty well with these types. Nicky Richards has an interesting runner, but my selection gets a bit of weight from him and should be competitive off his current mark. Taunton 2.00 Fox Appeal 0.75pt EW - 10/1 BetFred No surprise that he improved on his bumper form when going novice hurdling. I expect even more from him now handicapping over 3 miles. His last 2 runs represent really good form with decent horses contesting the races. Probably was outpaced lto, so today's trip will suit and trainer is in very good form. Competitive affair, but he could be well handicapped and jockey claims 7lbs.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 King George w/o Long Run Captain Chris 1.5pt EW - 9/2 VC Probably the field will be 8 or 7 runners with Nacarat and Planet Of Sound not certain to run. One of them a NR and w/o market will be reduced to 2 places, so best to play now. I think Long Run might be too good to be beat, so instead of playing 8/1 I prefer the 9/2 w/o the fav. I think Master Minded's stamina might be stretched and Kauto had a pretty tough race at Haydock. Captain Chris could be anything and definitely needs further. The obvious worry is Dickie Johnson, who constantly ruins good chasers with his inability to see any stride whatsoever over the larger obstacles, but the horse is a good jumper and hopefully everything will go smoothly.

[stewartd14]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

Taunton 2.00 Fox Appeal 0.75pt EW - 10/1 BetFred No surprise that he improved on his bumper form when going novice hurdling. I expect even more from him now handicapping over 3 miles. His last 2 runs represent really good form with decent horses contesting the races. Probably was outpaced lto, so today's trip will suit and trainer is in very good form. Competitive affair, but he could be well handicapped and jockey claims 7lbs.

:clap:clap Finds another one - well played mate!

[Aidymac]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Well done Mileni :clap

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

:clap:clap Finds another one - well played mate!

How much in hand did he have? Keen all the way round. Jockey not very experienced and couldn't hold him. Made headway on the turn, but lost an iron and lost position when jockey was sorting it out. Came back at them and was still wandering around before 2nd last and at last too. Still had enough on the run in to win. Hopefully oddscompilers haven't watched the race closely :D

[stewartd14]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

How much in hand did he have? Keen all the way round. Jockey not very experienced and couldn't hold him. Made headway on the turn' date=' but lost an iron and lost position when jockey was sorting it out. Came back at them and was still wandering around before 2nd last and at last too. Still had enough on the run in to win. Hopefully oddscompilers haven't watched the race closely :D[/quote'] Loads in hand, and will be better on softer ground too. More opportunities with this one.

[BillyHills]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Well done Milen, thought the jockey did ok to be honest? Looks a tricky one and the trainer said as much afterwards. :clap

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

Well done Milen, thought the jockey did ok to be honest? Looks a tricky one and the trainer said as much afterwards. :clap

He did very well. Especially when losing the irons and was strong in the finish as well. Horse is a difficult ride. Be interesting if Jack Doyle rides nto. I think he might be able to settle him and straighten him. He's quite strong and much more experienced. The claimer was very good though, fair play to the lad.

[who?me?]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

King George w/o Long Run Captain Chris 1.5pt EW - 9/2 VC Probably the field will be 8 or 7 runners with Nacarat and Planet Of Sound not certain to run. One of them a NR and w/o market will be reduced to 2 places, so best to play now. I think Long Run might be too good to be beat, so instead of playing 8/1 I prefer the 9/2 w/o the fav. I think Master Minded's stamina might be stretched and Kauto had a pretty tough race at Haydock. Captain Chris could be anything and definitely needs further. The obvious worry is Dickie Johnson, who constantly ruins good chasers with his inability to see any stride whatsoever over the larger obstacles, but the horse is a good jumper and hopefully everything will go smoothly.

I agree that Captain Chris could be anything but I have 2 question marks over him: He hasn't run over 3 miles before and I would prefer to see how he handles the extra 3 furlongs first. Secondly I feel he is far better in the second half of the NH season and having only had one run so far this season I'm not convinced he'll be at his best on Boxing Day.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

I agree that Captain Chris could be anything but I have 2 question marks over him: He hasn't run over 3 miles before and I would prefer to see how he handles the extra 3 furlongs first. Secondly I feel he is far better in the second half of the NH season and having only had one run so far this season I'm not convinced he'll be at his best on Boxing Day.

I think you're a bit wrong to look in his past form and say he's better in 2nd part of the season. He lost to Ghizao, but has had breathing op since and is a different horse altogether now. So all past form is pretty much irrelevant, because obviously the horse can now breathe and will run a lot better than his form before the op suggests. The op has proven to be a success as well. As for the trip, first of all I never care if a horse is unproven over a trip. Just logically a quality horse is more likely to stay than not stay, so why waste your time taking that into account? A good horse will stay and handle any ground. It's one thing not handling conditions and completely different to be unproven over those conditions. You can always give a horse the benefit of the doubt if he tackles new ground or new trip. Also the way he ran at Exeter (and not just there), it is pretty clear that he needs further. Getting outpaced by inferior horses and then starting to stay on strongly. Would have won easily. Hobbs has always said he will stay and he is one of the trainers that gets these things right most of the time. Last but not least, even if he doesn't see it out fully he can still finish 4th and get the place on the w/o market. I think the opposition bar the front 4 isn't anything special.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Ludlow 1.00 Tenzing 1pt EW - 14/1 Bet365 VC Was starting to stay on when falling lto. Still unexposed over fences and off feather weight, I think he might run better than his price suggests. Trainer is in good form and Tom O'Brien has been booked again. 1.30 Mark Twain 2pt EW - 4/1 Boyle His run lto represents really good form and the horses from the race have all run pretty well lately. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't build on that and should be competitive off this mark. Trainer is in great form after a quiet spell and I think if he beats the fav, he'll most probably win the race. Ffos Las 2.45 Horsham Lad 2pt EW - 3/1 BetFred Unlucky to be brought down when starting to stay on at Newbury lto. Won really well before that and I would expect him to continue improving. This ground and trip will suit, but the worry is the form of the yard, which is in a quiet spell at the minute. Paddy Brennan is back on the horse however and I think he's well handicapped, so I'll have an interest.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Ludlow 2.35 Only Witness 0.75pt EW - 7/1 Boyle Ran really well lto and might be improving over fences. Races off very low weight and jockey is immense value for his 7lb claim. Decent looking race, but he has won off similar marks in the past and I wouldn't be surprised if he runs better than his price suggests here. Seems to have taken well to fences and jumeped pretty well lto. Worth a shot at the price. Downpatrick 3.15 Bowfinger 2pt win - 10/3 Boyle Was off the track for a long time and ran a decent race in hunters chase on his sole start under rules. Won a pointer 3 weeks ago and that run should have put him spot on. This looks like a good oportunity for him to win a race and go onto better things as the season goes on. With yard on form and not very strong opposition against him here, I think he is worth a bet at the price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

Welsh National As De Fer 1pt EW 25/1 Viking Blond 1pt EW - 20/1 Cannington Brook 0.75pt EW - 33/1

Any Currency 1.25pt EW - 16/1 gen 4th and possibly final selection in the race. Fav is more likely to go Lexus and AC has shortened. The 25/1 on offer few days ago was a huge price and I thought it will last, but still 16/1 is quite big considering his form last season was pretty decent and this trip will suit him probably most of all. He also needs to win at least 1 race to be able to get in the Grand National. I think he's a lot better than his mark and will run a big race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Hereford 2.10 Flanagan 0.5pt EW - 25/1 Lads C&D winner on soft ground and despite the awful form lately, yard has had few winners in the past 2 weeks and first time visor is applied, so I wouldn't be surprised if this fella runs better today. Return to this trip will suit and mark has dropped quite a bit, so I'd give him a chance to return to form at the price.