Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[Mr Bookie Buster]

Great pick today mate - well done!

[kingsmithe]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Indeed ... great pick :clap:clap:clap

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Uttoxeter 2.35 Code Blue 1pt EW - 15/2 VC Lightly raced novice, who is interesting off this sort of mark after one year off. Not a particularly strong race despite the number of runners and yard is in form. Newbury 2.45 Buffalo Bob 0.75pt win - 7/1 gen Won this race off similar mark last year and had a prep recently. Yard was under a cloud in the last month, but few have done better since and good claimer will offset 7lbs.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Thurles 3.45 Avoca King 0.75pt EW - 5/1 gen Looks a weak contest and he ran too badly to be true lto. Should strip fitter this time and yard is in good form at the moment. Ruby on board again is positive as well.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Dundalk 6.55 Deutschland 0.5pt EW - 11/2 Boyle Has won over this course and I will ignore last run. The 3rd before that was good form and he might return to form today. Yard flying and Pat Smullen on board. Doncaster 2.00 Ben Cee Pee M 1pt EW - 3/1 WH Weak race and fav won with a lot of driving lto. Ben Cee Pee M will love return to this faster surface and is probably still on the right side of the handicap. Newbury 2.45 Kasbadali 1pt EW - 14/1 SJ 12/1 Bet365 VC Bolted up in his last novice and then won his first handicap. Looked held under pressure but found a lot off the bridle and ran as if this 3m trip will suit. Slower ground could also be in his favour.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Newbury 12.20 Horsham Lad 3.5pt win - 9/4 gen She's On The Case 0.5pt win - 9/1 Bet365 Lads Backed Horsham Lad last time and he won very nicely. Good amateur booked today and I would think he'll go very close again off just 8lb higher. She's On The Case shouldn't be good enough, but jockey boosts good record for the trainer and I'll save. 2.05 Titan De Sarti 1pt EW - 10/1 Lads Good novice form last season, but things didn't go to plan at the festival. Should improve this season and yard couldn't be in better form at the moment. Fav might be tough to beat however. 3.10 Michel Le Bon (already advised) Great Endeavour 2.5pt win - 6/1 gen Tullamore Dew 0.75pt EW - 25/1 BetFred VC Michel backed antepost. Great Endeavour is just too well in not to be backed. Won the Paddy Power like a really good horse and should stay. The only worry is if he's come out of his race well. Tullamore Dew is lightly raced and still on the right side of the handicap. Hopefully he'll put a good round of jumping today. 3.45 Coup Royale 2pt EW - 5/1 gen Backed lto when he bolted up. Extremely relieved that Joe is not on him today, because he did everything he could to lose last time, but the horse was so well handicapped and still won. Has had a wind op this summer and should continue to improve. Newcastle 3.30 The Hollinwell 0.5pt EW - 20/1 gen Just a speculative one on a horse I've always liked, but Ferdy has crooked him big time. Still he can pop-up form time to time and run a decent race like he did last season in the Southwell bumper or when 2nd at Hexham off just 5lb lower mark.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Carlisle 2.25 Hennessy 0.75pt win - 9/1 Boyle Hennessy 0.75pt place - Betfair SP Victory Gunner was biggest danger and is a NR, so this makes it a lot easier for Hennessy. Top weight is a good horse, but comes here after a break and 2 falls. Not sure he deserves to be such a short price. The selection showed some promise on reappearance, but ran appallingly lto. That was too bad to be true however and I'll give him a chance.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Carlisle 3.00 A Patchy Dancer 0.75pt EW - 20/1 Lads VC Disappointing on handicap debut, but ran well on penultimate start and the horse that beat him is not a bad sort. This isn't a particularly strong contest and trainer is in cracking form, so I'm gonna have a bet at the 20/1 on offer. I think soft 2 miles around here might suit him.

[BillyHills]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Milen, not sure what you meant by the comment for Patchy Dancer? "soft 2 miles around here might suit" The hurdle track is a new one and a lot sharper than the old galloping stamina track, just be careful when backing at Carlisle at the minute over hurdles. Still a stiff finish though to be fair.:ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

Milen, not sure what you meant by the comment for Patchy Dancer? "soft 2 miles around here might suit" The hurdle track is a new one and a lot sharper than the old galloping stamina track, just be careful when backing at Carlisle at the minute over hurdles. Still a stiff finish though to be fair.:ok

Yea I know it's a lot sharper, but stiff finish and soft ground. Nothing like flat Wetherby 2m on good. That's what I mean.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Navan 2.20 Quadrillon 1pt EW - 20/1 BlSq or 16/1 Bet365 (5 places) Looks as if he's the yard 3rd string, but I'm gonna take a chance. I think he is a good horse and was fancied to make a very good chaser last season. Didn't progress after the promise he showed in the autumn, but I reckon he just needed some time to get used to the bigger obstacles. In the latter part of the season he started jumping a lot better. Always runs well fresh, so this might be the time to catch him and with Paul Townend not riding Some Target, but this fella instead, I think he might run a lot better than the price suggests. Gets a lot of weight from few of the fancied runners, which is vital in these conditions.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Ffos Las 2.20 Ikorodu Road 0.75pt EW - 14/1 gen I thought this horse will win some big handicap chases last year, but after the heavy fall in the Newbury fog he's been in terrible form. Changed yards, but showed absolutely nothing for the new stable in his last 2 outings. Bit of a shot in the dark, but I think he could bounce back on galloping track like Ffos Las and the soft ground will suit. I hope he's not gone, because he is definitely well handicapped. 3.30 Mr Chippy 2pt win - 11/2 Boyle Ran 2 very good races for Ian Williams when last seen, but has had a setback and returns after a break for the in form Donald McCain stable. If ready I think he could be extremely well handicapped. He jumps well and seems to be the improver in the race. The fav is very poor value for me. He won well lto, but that was a terrible race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Welsh National As De Fer 1pt EW - 25/1 PP Seriously impressive and finished full of running on the soft ground, which means he'll most probably get the trip. Be an ask to win the Welsh National as a 5yo, but he looks seriously well handicapped to me and this price won't last long.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Uttoxeter 1.40 North Stack 1pt win - 2/1 gen Travelled well last time, btu probably needed it. Shame about the price, because he has a great chance, but 2/1 is probably still value. Stable is rediscovering form after a quiet period and selection looks a worthy fav in a weak race. Claimer on board very good value for the 7lbs.

[mileni4uk]

[TheRat]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 :clap

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Leicester 2.35 Aughcarra 0.5pt EW - 28/1 VC Return to quicker surface will suit and this is a weak race. I'm gonna give him one last chance, because Tom O'Brien isn't on him by coincidence. This horse can go well at a price I think. Wincanton 2.45 Tony Star 1pt EW - 6/1 gen Had no chance chasing a very well handicapped horse lto, but beat the rest easily. Usually makes a mistake or two, but hopefully will jump well today, because I think he's the best horse at the weights here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Welsh National As De Fer (already advised) Viking Blond 1pt EW - 20/1 gen I like Viking Blond a lot for a test like this. Always runs well, but is a bit one paced and 3m5f on soft will be ideal. Record at Chepstow is very good and saw this comment on RP: "The plan with Viking Blond will be the Welsh Grand National as the softer and the further the better. He will have two more outings before then to qualify.-Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer." Still lightly raced over fences and I can't see him 20/1 on the day. Will probably be half that. He's well handicapped and conditions will suit him. Jumps well and yard usually does very well in this type of race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 December Gold Cup Quantitativeeasing 2pt EW - 8/1 Bet365 Spbet Major cock-up to only raise him 1lb for Paddy Power 2nd. Beat all bar the winner easily and is a fast improving horse, who looks very well handicapped to me. Goes on any ground and it'll probably be a lot softer than PP, so Divers is up against it reversing that form. Few other interesting runners here, but Great Endeavour looks a NR and this fella seems to be with the best chance of winning at this moment in time. Could be an antepost gamble.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Sandown 2.30 Quinz 1pt win - 5/1 Lads I think Bostons Angel is a slowcoach and would never take such price on him. Royal Charm is interesting, but trip around here might stretch him. Will give Quinz a chance to come to form, because lto was too bad to be true. He was never going.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Aintree 12.35 Featherbed Lane 1.5pt EW - 4/1 SJ 7/2 gen Beat a very well handicapped horse of David Pipe's lto and shaped as if step up to 2m4f will suit. Good race here with several having a chance, but I think he is an improving sort and will still be ahead of the handicapper. Yard is doing well. 2.10 Nicto De Beauchene 1pt EW - 10/1 Bet365 PP (4 places) Shalimar Fromentro 1pt EW - 10/1 Bet365 PP (4 places) Swing Bill 0.5pt win - 12/1 gen Going with Nicto, because this test might suit. He is a bold jumper and a front runner and might be up there all the way, which helps around here. The dark horse in the race is the Nick Williams youngster, who jumps well and could be thrown in. Swing Bill is in form and represents saver material. 3.20 Stewarts House 2pt win - 6/1 Bet365 BetFred Buffalo Bob 1pt EW - 8/1 gen Just like Nicto De Beauchene I think Buffalo Bob will be suited by this test. Front runner and probably wasn't 100% fit lto when weakening, but 2m5f around here ideal and yard is in better form now. Stewarts House ran a cracker at Cheltenham and drop in trip will suit. Hopefully he's still ahead of the handicapper despite the 11-8 he'll have to carry. Sandown 1.25 Arrayan 0.75pt EW - 18/1 WH Poungach 0.5pt win - 11/4 gen Very surprised by the price on Arrayan, but probably he needs it even softer than this. I think he is well handicapped and can be excused Imperial Cup run. Should continue to improve this year and if he doesn't hate the ground he should be thereabouts. Fav is thrown in and I have to save stake on him. 3.40 Any Currency 1.5pt win - 11/2 gen Major Malarkey 1.5pt win - 7/1 Bet365 Boyle Going with two against the field here. Any Currency represents ridiculously good form splitting Midnight Chase and Junior. I have no doubt he is better than his current mark, the worry is how fit he will be fto with other targets ahead of him as the season goes on. Major Malakey ran a cracker over C&D last year, but probably given too much to do and didn't stay the trip fully. More conservative ride and one year older, I think he will go well today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Chepstow 1.30 Rojo Vivo 1.5pt EW - 9/2 Boyle Despite the big field this seems to be between the front 3 in the market. Curtain Razer is probably decent, but can't be of any interest at that price. Knock A Hand is also very likable, but will concede weight. That's why it's probably wiser to go with Rojo Vivo, who is very big scopey horse and will love these conditions. Yard in grand form and Nicky seems to like this fella a lot. 2.05 Richard's Sundance 0.75pt EW - 9/1 Bet365 I like the 2 Pipe's and Tarablaze a lot, but all of them have the Welsh National in mind, so maybe it's wiser to go with this fella instead, who will love these conditions and is well handicapped on his Wincanton win. Gets a very good 7lb claimer on board and should be spot on here today. Yard continues in good form and if few of the principals aren't fully buzzed up for today, he can go close. Wetherby 1.15 Rossmore Lad 1pt EW - 5/1 Lads VC Won at Chepstow on penultimate start, but was put in his place at Cheltenham lto. That was a hard race and he still performed with credit however and return to weaker company will see him do much better. Not a strong contest by any means here and I think he represents value at 5/1.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Chepstow 1.00 Kind Of Easy 0.5pt EW - 14/1 Bet365 Just a small EW bet on a horse I think will imrpove for fences and for this trip. Hot contest this and he might blossom later in the season when he goes handicapping, but price is good enough to be tried. Yard is in good form. Wetherby 1.45 Shadrack 2pt win - 6/1 Lads Good horse, who was going really well when falling on chasing debut last year when I tipped. Switched back to hurdles to get his confidence back and that seemed to work the trick, because he won really well lto over the bigger obstacles. Goes handicapping off higher mark, but I think he is improving and surprised to see him such a big price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Warwick 2.40 Getmeouthedoldrums - 9/4 Boyle Kelso 1.00 Lie Forrit - 9/4 Boyle 1pt win double @ 10.56 Just having an interest on those two, but because they are such short prices I'd go on the double. Getmeouthedoldrums ran well lto and I expect him to improve a lot for that. Should make a fine staying chaser and yard is in form again. Lie Forrit is very interesting over fences and always goes well fresh. Will be fascinating to see what he can do today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Kelso 2.00 Always Right 1.5pt EW - 5/1 Lads Should still be on the upgrade and ran a cracker in the Scottish Grand National given too much to do. This trip no problem for him being a C&D winner and I expect him to continue to progress this year. Yard is in great form and despite it being a very tough race, I think he has the most scope and if buzzed up on seasonal reappearance should be the one to beat.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Musselburgh 2.20 Chester Lad 2pt EW - 11/4 Boyle Lads Kicked for home at Carlisle and was done in the final 50 yards, but off same mark I expect him to be very competitive. Used to be a lot higher in the past and now joined a top yard, who is in great form. Trip will suit and many are out of form in the race. Plumpton 2.40 Mix N Match 0.75pt EW - 8/1 Bet365 3lb lower than his last winning mark and has changed stables. Very good claimer on board and this is a very weak race. Fav is unproven on the ground and few others are badly out of form. Worth a shot at the price I reckon.

[jinxy]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

December Gold Cup Quantitativeeasing 2pt EW - 8/1 Bet365 Spbet Major cock-up to only raise him 1lb for Paddy Power 2nd. Beat all bar the winner easily and is a fast improving horse, who looks very well handicapped to me. Goes on any ground and it'll probably be a lot softer than PP, so Divers is up against it reversing that form. Few other interesting runners here, but Great Endeavour looks a NR and this fella seems to be with the best chance of winning at this moment in time. Could be an antepost gamble.

new to this Mileni but you come highly recommended. Just wanted to know your thoughts on Quel Esprit for the weekend. I know he has fell twice at Chelt but he was going extremely well over 3m at the track when he fell 3 out?

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

new to this Mileni but you come highly recommended. Just wanted to know your thoughts on Quel Esprit for the weekend. I know he has fell twice at Chelt but he was going extremely well over 3m at the track when he fell 3 out?

Probably best handicapped of all in the race, but not sure he's coming over. Ruby already booked on Ghizao. As for jumping, he jumped like a dream few weeks ago.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Fontwell 12.40 Frederick William 0.25pt EW - 250/1 PP VC Surprisingly enough this fella is better than few of these on flat rating. Has had 2 tame efforts over hurdles, but maybe he will need his time to come good over obstacles. Shot in the dark obviously, but if he runs better today and the field stays intact, he might squeak into 3rd.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Hexham 2.50 Code Blue 3pt EW - 3/1 gen Bit of a non-trier lto, when given a strange ride, but they probably knew he will need the run. Should be fit and ready today and I see him as a progressive horse, who will win fair few before handicapper gets him right. Hopefully he'll settle, because he sometimes tends to race keen. If he does, he will be very hard to beat today. 3.20 Mr Chippy 2pt EW - 3/1 Fred Won easily lto and races off only 7lb higher here. This is a lot better race and he will have to carry 12 stone over 3 miles, but I doubt he will stop his improvemenet off 97. The way he won lto suggested he's a lot better than his mark and trip shouldn't be a problem. Yard is in great form and not many have a chance here, so if he has a clear round he should be in the first three and is a worthy fav for me.