Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Ascot 1.55 Big Time Billy 0.75pt EW - 18/1 Bet365 WH Decent form in good bumpers and 5th in the Irish champion bumper. Hasn't performed that well over hurdles so far, but his reappearance run wasn't bad and he's been dropped 2lbs for that. Cheek-pieces and upped in trip on handicap debut. Might run well at a price off low weight. Ascot 2.30 Baseball Ted 1.5pt EW - 6/1 Boyle Unlucky not to win 3 weeks ago, but he always finds a way to lose without the headgear. The cheek-pieces are back today and this track will suit him. Trainer continues in fantastic form and despite it being probably his toughest task to date, I think he can win. Always been highly regarded at his previous yard and record in the headgear is impressive. Ascot 3.00 Via Galilei (already advised) Nearby 0.5pt EW - 25/1 Lads Adding additional bet to yesterday's tip. Nearby runs off his County Hurdle mark and only needs to reproduce it to get involved here. This is a tough race, but I doubt it's much tougher than the County, in fact many of these might not progress over the season like the market expects them to. I want to have 2 good old handicappers on my side today. I think they'll both run well. Ascot 3.40 Exmoor Ranger 1pt EW - 16/1 gen Life Of A Luso 0.75pt EW - 16/1 Lads PP The Last Derby 0.75pt win - 25/1 Boyle Promising Anshan 0.5pt win - 9/1 Boyle Air Force One 0.25pt win - 16/1 gen Not much more to add about my 2 main selections, been backing them almost every time they've run. Still think Exmoor has a big handicap in him and has been given a chance by the assessor. Life Of A Luso has been staying on well lately and step-up in trip will suit. The Last Derby won this in 2009 and was tried highly last year. He doesn't really stay extreme distances, but 3m at Ascot are exactly what he needs. Saving on Promising Anshan, who is unexposed and Air Force One, who looks thrown in if he can rediscover his old form. 5pt staked overall. Wetherby 3.20 Time For Rupert (already advised) Weird Al (already advised) See reasoning from few days ago. Naas 4.00 Pozyc 1.5pt EW - 6/1 gen Sweet My Lord 0.5pt win - 12/1 gen Pozyc won well lto and has been in decent form all summer. Won a decent flat handicap and 2m4f on soft suits him well, because he has a lot of stamina. It took yard time to realize that, but now I expect them to reap the rewards. Idled a bit in front and possibly that played in his favour, because handicapper didn't raise him too much. His stablemate is passed over by Paul Townend and possibly won't be ready fto, but I rate him highly and I'll have to save on him.

[Lars]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Bumper day for you Milen, nice one :notworthy

[gregprowt]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 another 2 juicy priced winners :clap

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Huntingdon 3.35 Fresher Fishing 2pt win - 6/1 Bet365 Tarvini 1pt win - 15/2 WH Rule 4 15p now unfortunately and I was opposing the NR, but still think these two will fight it out. The rest are exposed and both mine look well handicapped. Carlisle 3.50 Zoenicibel 1pt EW - 9/1 Fred Decent in a novice hurdle and then ran an eye-catching 2nd over this distance when last seen. Horses around him in his last 2 runs have done well since and could be well handicapped if buzzded up for seasonal reappearance. Wexford 3.55 Raptor 1pt win - 4/1 gen Held in high regard by connections and was always gonna be a chaser. What he did as a hurdler was a bonus. Nibbled at this morning and Donnas Palm is a bit of a false fav for me. Raptor is young and progressive and if he jumps well, he could go close today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Kempton 2.40 E Major 0.75pt EW - 14/1 WH Won very easily lto beating Strumble Head. The latter finished a lot closer to Laustra Bad and King Of The Night in his next start and E Major might not be stopped by a 11lb rise. Could definitely beat those two, because he won like a horse, who had quite a bit in hand. Might still have to settle for a place however, because Beyond looks thrown in at the weights. The price is too short even for a saver though, so I'm letting it run with just an EW wager on the selection.

[mileni4uk]

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Exeter 2.50 Ghizao 4pt win - 11/4 Lads WH Captain Chris 1.5pt win - 5/2 WH Zaarito 0.5pt win - 8/1 gen I don't think Medermit can close the gap with Captain Chris on Arkle form, while Ghizao never ran to form that day. He was in the process of probably winning at Aintree against Finian's Rainbow, but made a crucial error. I still think he is a classy horse and might beat CC in receipt of 5lbs today. Zaarito is dangerous if he gets his jumping going, so I'm gonna save on him.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Fontwell 2.20 Cresswell Crusader 2pt win - 3/1 VC Some cracking novice form last season and has been given rather lenient mark on handicap debut. If ready I think he will be tough to beat. Handles ground and trip looks exactly what he needs. Good claimer offsets handy 5lbs. If buzzed up on seasonal reappearance I make him an evens shot.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Sandown 3.30 Moleskin 0.75pt EW - 10/1 SJ The two market leaders look strong on paper, but except them, this race lacks any depth and I'll go for Moleskin, who has always looked a staying chaser to me. Backed last year a few times and he almost won when 2nd on penultimate start. Still unexposed over fences and could be more to come from him. Trainer is in very good form.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Wincanton 3.20 Checkerboard 0.75pt EW - 12/1 Lads VC Patchy record for Howard Johnson, but finished the season well with a win and 2nd. Lto he met a very well handicapped horse and trip appeared to suit him. I have a feeling there could be more to come from him over 3 miles. New yard very impressive with the chasers and the booking of Paddy Brennan again very interesting. Tough race, but this fella has very light weight and might run a lot better than the market suggests.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Sandown 3.00 Tony Star 1.5pt win - 10/1 VC Pateese 0.5pt win - 4/1 gen I was planning a big bet on Pateese wherever he runs, but unfortunately after he got well backed last week and was a NR, he is very poor value albeit in a weaker race. I'll just save on him and back the other Hobbs runner instead, who comes here after just two hurdle runs. It's interesting that the claimer is on Pateese, but Tom O'Brien rides the bigger priced one. I think Tony Star could be the stable main string here. Pateese despite being extremelly well handicapped will probably do his winning over further.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Wincanton 1.10 Tenzing 1pt EW - 8/1 Boyle Lads VC Landed the odds lto and probably did himself a favour idling in front. Handicapper only raised him 6lbs. This is a better race naturally, but I doubt he will stop winning off current mark and I expect another bold bid. Tom O'Brien has other engagements, but Paddy Brennan is not a bad substitute and he could easily follow up.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Leopardstown 4.05 Pozyc 0.75pt EW - 16/1 Boyle Ran no race last weekend, but today's better ground will suit and he will appreciate the trip. This is usually a very hot handicap, but it doesn't apear to be that competitive this year. The fav is probably well in, but the rest are pretty much exposed and the selection, who won on the flat and over hurdles in the last few months, could still be on the up. Market Rasen 2.50 Natural Action 1pt win - 6/1 gen Two falls lately not very inspiring, but in sole chasing win he bolted up beating today's rival Chesapeake and I think he is definitely on a good mark to win, just needs to get his jumping together. Brian Hughes usually gets horses jumping and is very good over fences. Worth another try, because he is by far the best horse at the weights imo. Market Rasen 3.25 Mohi Rahrere 0.75pt EW - 14/1 SJ 12/1 gen Can win after a break and did so last season. Usually prefers soft ground, but won a decent novice hurdle on good on penultimate start, so ground is not a worry. Up and coming trainer knows how to place his horses and very good booking in Danny Cook today. Not a particularly strong race and horses that look wrong at the weights or won't stay are half the price. Greatwood Hurdle Pateese 2pt EW - 12/1 Lads Bolted up yesterday and looked a horse, who has quite a bit in hand. I don't know if he will be reassessed by the handicapper for next Saturday or will run under a penalty, but I think it's the latter. I hope I'm not wrong, because if he only has the 7lbs, he is extremely well handicapped and will go close.

[wistful]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Mileni. I've found this link. http://www.betcheltenham.com/greatwood-handicap-hurdle-full-list-of-weights Looks like Pateese will get a 5lb penalty bringing his weight up to 9 st 9 lb. Bottom weight last year was 9 stone 9 lb and the year before 9 stone 7lb. There are 45 entries at present. Last 4 years there were 17, 15, 12 and 19 runners. Not sure what the maximum number of runners is for this race but presumably he'll get in alright?

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 If he doesn't get in, it's money back anyway. He will be balloted out. Last year the lowest weight was 127, so he probably gets in. I also don't know what the max number of runners is.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 I hope Overturn runs, because that will force Hobbs to use Matt Griffits claiming his 5lbs off. If Pateese is in the handicap proper, they'll probably put Dickie back on. We're talking about 10lb difference :D

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Hereford 4.15 Aughcarra 0.75pt EW - 25/1 Fred Wouldn't normally back such a rag, but Tom O'Brien an interesting booking and the race is terrible. Horse has run well after a break before and is worth a nibble at the price I reckon.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Lingfield 3.10 Zorro De La Vega 1pt EW - 8/1 Run last time came too soon. He didn't travel with his usual fluency and I'd give him another chance, because handicapper has reassessed him and he's not much higher than his latest win. 2 market leaders look good, but the rest are poor and the selection would probably be a cert for a place if he runs to form.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 PaddyPower Gold Cup Noble Prince 2pt EW - 10/1 gen This race has been all about Noble Prince for me ever since Wishfull Thinking kept winning at Aintree and Punchestown and franking the form. The Paul Nolan gelding over 2m5f on good ground is a top class Grade 1 horse and would possibly win the Ryanair in March, but the price there doesn't really represent any value at this moment in time. 10/1 for Saturday however is generous and Poquelin running means my selection will carry 11-2. Weight he is perfectly capable of carrying to victory, because many will be outside the handicap and therefore not that well handicapped as they would've been if Poquelin was a NR.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Non Runner now. Don't back.

[BillyHills]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

Market Rasen 3.25 Mohi Rahrere 0.75pt EW - 14/1 SJ 12/1 gen Can win after a break and did so last season. Usually prefers soft ground, but won a decent novice hurdle on good on penultimate start, so ground is not a worry. Up and coming trainer knows how to place his horses and very good booking in Danny Cook today. Not a particularly strong race and horses that look wrong at the weights or won't stay are half the price.

Milen, was you on today mate?

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

Milen' date=' was you on today mate?[/quote'] Nope. Just everything that can go against me does so at the minute :D

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Will include NP in results obviously, but hope no one followed. Let's sum up the past 3 days and Nolan's interviews. Monday: "We haven't yet decided if he runs in PP. It is an obvious target, but we will decide later in week." Tuesday: "We are leaning towards PP. We need Poquelin to run to keep the weight down." Wednesday Poquelin is confirmed. "We won't run in PP, his mark is too high." :notworthy

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Ludlow 2.00 Backfromthecongo 1pt EW - 10/1 Fred Didn't run very well on latest start, but he always improves for the run and like last year I hope his 2nd run is a lot better. Has won off 2lb lower and Jamie Moore a very interesting booking. This looks a weak race for its grade and since blinkers were applied, the horse has become more straightforward and started winning with all 3 wins coming under headgear. Nibbled this morning and should go well.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Paddy Power Gold Cup Great Endeavour 1pt EW - 14/1 SJ I guess we have to give this one a chance after some terrible rides last year. Still think he will be a better 3 miler, but he's not going Hennessy or maybe he is? Doesn't take his racing that well however and usually needs time to recover, so maybe PaddyPower is the real target. He wasn't right early last season, few of Pipe's needed their run in November. Very lightly raced and would have improved. Poquelin in the race gives him a chance to run off very low weight. If Timmy doesn't fukc up again, he will run well.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Hennessy Gold Cup Michel Le Bon 2pt EW - 14/1 Lads Unfortunately tipped up by Pricewise and price has been cut. Could've been great value, but 14s still good enough to be tried. Very exciting horse, who Paul Nicholls pointed out last year as "my one to follow for the season". Got injured and wasn't seen at all, but has been on the go for several months at home this year and I have no doubt the champion trainer will have him ready for the race. Very inexperienced, but jumped well overall on sole chasing start bar few mishaps. I think he will have tons in hand here and if he jump he will win it. The worry obviously is the big field and the hustle and bustle nature of the race, but he has exactly the profile I usually look for.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Cheltenham 1.45 Crack Away Jack 3pt EW - 4/1 Lads WH Very intriguing that Nicholls has done wind op with this horse straight after he got him in his stable. Always been a fan and I think he is classy, just bit hard to train. Nicholls knows what to do with enthusiastic sorts like him though and I think he'll do better than Lavelle with him. Potentially on a good mark and reports from the yard are that he is in good form.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Cheltenham 1.10 Stewarts House 2.5pt win - 7/1 Lads Time For Spring 0.5pt win - 6/1 Lads Bai Zhu 0.5pt win - 10/1 Boyle Wh Barel Of Laughs 0.5pt win - 8/1 gen Was very impressed with Stewarts House lto. Beat decent field easily and claimer will offset the raise in the handicap. Don't know anything about the boy, but hopefully he'll be capable enough. Time For Spring is unexposed and probably still on the up, but trainer/jockey combo will always be underpriced, so doesn't really represent any value. Just a saver. Bai Zhu jumps really well and is lightly raced while Barel Of Laughs has won 2 from 2 over fences in Ireland and could be anything. 1.45 Crack Away Jack (already advised) 2.20 Uncle Junior 1.5pt EW - 13/2 gen Loves good ground and this trip will suit. Hopefully they won't go very slow in the early parts of the race. Fav is getting on and despite his class I don't think he is worth backing at those silly odds. The race overall is not as competitive as it used to be and if 8 line up, I'm pretty confident my selection will place. 2.55 Ericht 0.75pt EW - 11/2 Bet365 Lads He will possibly be better over further, but according to trainer has enough speed for 2 miles. 6th in the Champion bumper and reportedly schooled well. Cheltenham always a track for proper NH horses, so I'm taking on the 2 ex-flat favourites. 3.30 Hear My Song 0.5pt EW - 50/1 Boyle Dune Shine 0.5pt EW - 22/1 Lads VC Brother Bob 0.5pt EW - 40/1 WH Very tough race, so just few speculative ones from me. Hear My Song was up there until 3 out lto and his earlier novice form looks decent. Dune Shine ran well behind a progressive sort latest and will come on for the run. Claimer's allowance will feel like 2 stone considering who rides the horse usually. Brother Bob doesn't love fences at all, but back over hurdles might run better than his odds suggest. Newcastle 2.45 Topenfeuer 0.5pt EW - 66/1 PP Decent in France winning on the all weather and placing in few other contests. Shot in the dark really, but he was too keen to do himself any justice and might strip fitter today. If he settles, he could run well. Worth a shot at the odds on offer. Race doesn't really look that strong anyway.

[Mr Bookie Buster]

Some great predictions today Milini. Well done and thanks for sharing.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012 Spot on with Uncle Junior Mileni :ok