Jump to content

billy the punter's 2009 Diary


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 384
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Thank you chaps. 9th April Due to the time of year I'm treading carefully over the jumps, however one horse stood out for me; Caoba at Wincanton. She had some really decent form prior to a year off the course and after an encouraging comeback in late March she looked to have a massive chance in an average mares only event. She won comfortably by 16l. She was attractively handicapped prior to this (102) but the handicapper raised her 13lb for this effort, it is still possibly however, that she can be competitive off her new mark. She was the only bet of the day, I thought the sole flat card (Folkstone) was a little trappy. One horse that came close to being a selection was Marcus Tregoning's Lady Hestia, who ran in the Class 6 'hands and heels' handicap. She had shown nothing in three maiden starts prior but it was interesting to see connections keep faith with a 49-rated horse, instead of sending her to the sales. It was no surprise to see her fare betting in this handicap, she took it up inside the last but was headed on the line by Barbirolli, going down by just a head. She will find a similar event soon. 10th April It was all about Kempton for me yesterday, they hosted a decent 8-race card wheres the N.H. meetings looked very trappy. Checklow was a fast finishing 2nd in the first. This horse showed potential but was ultimately disappointing last season, perhaps the gelding operation over the winter will do the trick and he could be one to follow this year. My other bet in the race Opus Maximus ran a little flat. I expected Born Tobouggie to be favourite, she looked a 2/1 chance to me. She impressed me last season, including when fresh, and looked the only potential Group filly in the race. Not many win so convincingly from the front on polytrack and she could winner early on. I thought Thebes was over priced at 16/1 (William Hills), his SP was more indicative of his chances. He again showed perhaps all is not well, taking it up inside the final two furlongs only to stop instantly and wander. If he isn't feeling something, and I doubt he is given the connections, then I think he may benefit from headgear. I thought the handicapper had taken a massive chance giving Laudatory a handicap mark of just 77. His maiden form worked out fairly well last year and the manner of his victory on his final 2yo start suggested their would be much more to come this season. He was smashed down from 5/1 into an SP of 10/3 and he certainly won like a well handicapped horse, value for much more than the 3/4l victory. Miss Serena was beaten just 1/2l for place in the falsely run 5.25. She may have benefited from a more vigorous ride. I thought David Probert took it up a little too early on Casilda in the last. Probert kicked for home before the final bend and she was undone by the rattling finishes of Press The Button and Formation. It was an extremely pleasing return to action for Casilda as she also chased a frantic early gallop, a gallop that played into the hands of the 1-2. Dance The Star was a back marker here but is a horse I liked last year and could do well over 1m4f this season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 12th April Shocking cards today, just the one from the list, it was my only bet of the day. Dan Tucker is a horse I've had my eye on for a few weeks, writing this after his last start at Kempton:

Backed Dan Tucker at Kempton as I thought he was well handicapped - took around 8/1 on betfair and he was smashed down to 4/1 fav. He made a bold bid from the front, looked all over the winner 2 out (1/2 in-running, 1/10 in-running for a place) but tired late on and finished 4th. He wins soon on either or both codes.
He is well handicapped on both the flat and jumps and just looked like a horse coming to hand. There was nothing of his class in this 0-90 Classified Hurdle (Plumpton 5.00) and he won very easily. Was massive this morning at 6/1 (Blue Square) and was backed from 5/1 down to 7/2 on-course.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Results based on their runs after they appeared on this thread. Aachen............................................ ..............: na Admiral Bond 6f................................................ : na Ainama (jumps)................................. ...............: 3, -1 Ainama (flat)............................................ ........: na Al Gillani........................................... ...............: na Annabelles Charm............................................. : na Apotheosis........................................ ...............: na Benhego........................................... ..............: 14, -0.2 Big Eared Fran.............................................. ...: 2130, +3.5 (2nd at 10/1 and 3rd Cheltenham) Big Fella Thanks............................................ ...: 36, -2 Binocular......................................... .................: 3, -1 Blueberry Ice (on quicker ground).........................: na Bob Hall.............................................. ............: 2, -1 Born Tobouggie..................................................: na Boscage........................................... ...............: 14, -0.71 Boss Hog (7f on fibresand)...................................: 3, -1 Bowleaze.......................................... ...............: na Bronze Cannon............................................ .....: na Budhist Monk.............................................. ......: na Busy Isit (after lay-off).......................................: na Cabopino.......................................... ...............: na Calzaghe..........................................................: na Can't Buy Time (at and around 3m4f)....................: na Caoba..............................................................: na Cape Express........................................... ........: 3, -1 Carruthers........................................ ...............: na Casilda.............................................................: na Cecily (on poly or turf)........................................: 324, -3 Celestial Halo.............................................. ......: x, -1 Changing The Guard............................................: 213, -0.12 Character Building (with headgear).........................: 01, +15 Charm School............................................ ........: na Checklow..........................................................: na Christina Rossetti.......................................... .....: na Coe (at and around 3m4f)....................................: 2, -1 Colonel Sherman........................................... .....: 23, -2 Colour Of Money............................................. ...: 5, -1 Crown Choice............................................ ..........: na Dance The Star...................................................: na Dan Tucker (jumps)................ ................ ...........: 1, +3.50 Dan Tucker (flat)............................................ ....: na Daraiym (flat)..................................... ...............: 11, +7 Dave's Dream............................................. .......: na Dazzling Begum (with strong jockey).......................: 2, -1 Description (dependant on new mark).....................: 1, +2.13 Don't Stop Me Now.............................................: na Dover's Hill (right-handed and/or over chases)..........: 2, -1 Dreamy Sweeney........................................... ....: na Drew Drop Inn............................................... ....: na Drum Major............................................. ..........: 8, -1 Eastern Aria.............................................. ........: 1, +2.25 Eradicate......................................... ................: 22, -2 Expresso Star.............................................. .....: na Fancy Footsteps......................................... ......: na Focail Eile.............................................. ..........: 1, +6 Forget It................................................ ..........: na Gee Dee Nen (jumps)........................................... : 3, -1 Gee Dee Nen (flat)............................................ .: na Ghufa............................................. .................: 3428, -4 Gloucester (jumps)........................................... ...: 1000, -2 Gloucester (flat)............................................ .....: na Great Knight............................................ ...........: na Green Velvet............................................ ..........: 311, +7 Harald Bluetooh.......................................... .......: 1, +0.8 Herrera........................................... ..................: na High Cross............................................. ...........: 32, -2 Horner Woods............................................. ......: na Hunting Country........................................... .......: na If You Knew Suzy.............................................. ..: na Ikorodu Road (staying chases in the future).............: na Imaam............................................. ..................: na I'm Delilah........................................... ..............: 2, -1 Itshim............................................ ..................: 11, +2.5 James Pollard........................................... ...........: na Joe Jo Star (flat)............................................ ...: 2, -1 Joe Jo Star (hurdles)......................................... .: 13, -0.2 (3rd at 20/1) Kefalonia......................................... .................: na Key Of Fortune (in classified company)..................: na Khan Tengri (1m4f and over handicaps)..................: na Kidlat (over 1m4+)............................................. : 5, -1 Kings Colour............................................ ..........: 64, -2 Kings Forest............................................ ..........: na L'Hirondelle...................................... ..................: 1, +4.5 Lady Hestia........................................................: na Lamanver Homerun........................................... ..: 5, -1 Laudatory..........................................................: na Lavender Track............................................. .....: F, -1 Light From Mars.............................................. ......: na Manere Bay............................................... ..........: na Mastery........................................... .................: na Meshtri........................................... ...................: na Mattamia.......................................... ..................: na Middle Of Nowhere........................................... ....: na Miss Serena.........................................................: na Moon Crystal (on polytrack)...................................: 12423 (btn sh twice) -0.5 Mr Macattack......................................... ...........: na Mrs Bun (on fibresand)........................................ : 24, -2 Nabeeda (with headgear or on turf)........................: na Negotiation....................................... ................: na Nightjar (on fibresand)........................................ : 11, +4.5 Nordwind.......................................... ................: 12, +0.10 Noticeable (no headgear, gd ground in sellers)..........: 14, 0.25 Obe Royal (7f).............................................. .....: 12122201, +13.75 Optimus Maximus........................................... ......: 2, -1 Opus Maximus........................................... ..........: 8, -1 Palace Moon.............................................. .........: na Parnassian (especially on fibresand)........................: na Pension Policy (with headgear change)....................: na Petit Robin (left handed).......................................: x, -1 Petrovsky......................................... ................: 11, +1.07 Ping Pong Sivola............................................ .....: F, -1 Planetory Motion............................................ ....: 0, -1 Poker De Sivola............................................ ......: na Poquelin.......................................... ..................: 7, -1 Razor Royale............................................ ..........: na Rocky Ryan.............................................. .........: P, -1 Ronaldo Des Mottes............................................ ..: 120, +1 Samons Son............................................... ........: na Scarab............................................ ..................: 5, -1 Set The Trend............................................. ........: na Seven Is My Number............................................ : x, -1 Shenanigan (with headgear)...................................: na Silk Affair............................................ ...............: 111, +15.65 Snow Dancer............................................ ..........: 22, -2 Spring Of Fame.............................................. .....: na St Moritz............................................ ...............: na Stagecoach Jade.............................................. ....: na Star Choice............................................ ............: 4251x2, -2 Street Power............................................. .........: na Super Judge (gd ground or quicker)..........................: na Sweet Lightning......................................... ..........: na Tactful................................................................: na Tartan Gigha............................................. ..........: 2U, -2 Tasheba........................................... ..................: 1, +0.4 Thebes............................................ ...................: 08, -2 The Galloping Shoe.............................................. ...: na The Old Pretender (especially novice chases)..............: na The Package........................................... .............: 0, -1 This Ones For Eddy.............................................. ..: na Tiffany Lady (in classified company)..........................: na Torphichen........................................ ..................: na Towy Valley............................................ .............: na Trade Centre (esp over 7f)......................................: na Tuxedo............................................ ...................: na Walkon............................................ ....................: 21, +1 Watson's Bay............................................... .........: na Woody's Dream............................................. .......: 5, -1 Yamal............................................. ....................: 2, -1 Yossi............................................. .....................: na Future bets suggested : 138 Winners: 39 2nds: 31 3rds: 15 unplaced: 53 28.92pts PROFIT 28% S/R 21% Yield

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary

Billy, i will be doing a notebook this year also on the flat seaosn, not sure whether i should include AW as there will be debutantes on the AW who will then hit the turf! Watched 2 races tonight & very impressed with Gosdens 2 ridden by Fortune. They were not knocked about - Negotiation & Christina Rossetti, both of which look to have a race in them. Seek to destroy can surely also win again after its impressive performance tonight & the fast finishing Kefalonia from Hills' stable perhaps with a step up in trip. Not sure if you saw these 2 races but would like to hear your views.
Negotiation nice price @ 9/2, pity about Kefalonia, i had an ew double on the 2 today.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Yes mate, Negotiation progressed as we expected, puzzling effort from Kefalonia though, like you say. Massive drifter beforehand - perhaps she isn't straightforward? Will continue to monitor here obviously. 13th April Four ran from the list today, Negotiation (already spoken about - won 9/2), Kefalonia (beaten), Poker De Sivola (beaten when highly tried in Irish National) and Annabelle's Charm who was only 3rd. A typical Bank Holiday minefield for punters; horses showing massively improved form to land gambles, strange betting patterns throughout the day and numerous poor rides - I'd be writing for a week if I went into the details of every tenderly handed horse I saw today. Under the circumstances I pleased to come out the day relatively unscathed (-1pt). Although the list made a 1.5pts profit - now updated. At Warwick, Baby Rock's run in the 2.20 can be totally ignored, he suffered an unclear passage throughout and wasn't knocked about. Miss Keck looked an unlucky loser in the 2.35 at Redcar, she was short of room at a pivotal time and the race was over by the time she got into the clear. She finished well to finish 5th and looks sure to find a staying handicap soon. Kipchak had a decent A/W season and ran well for new connections on his last start, when carrying a penalty over an inadequate 6f. He looked sure to go well today, back over 7f and back running off his OR of 67 - for these reasons he was my joint-strongest bet of the day. The victory never looked in doubt and he won well from the front. Top Tribute wasn't given a hard time back in 7th and should find a race before long. Yarmouth is probably my least favourite track, I feel it's extremely difficult to find winners there and today proved no exception. Negotiation took the first for John Gosden, he looks sure to progress and should follow up in handicap company. The market told the story in the 4.00, there was money for just two horses (Seneschal and Elusive Hawk), and they filled the 1-2 spots, pulling clear of the 3rd. Many 'negatives' on the exchanges for plenty of their rivals, none more so that 3rd fav Truly Devine, who was 7/1 on-course while simultaneously trading at 20/1 on the machine - he was last throughout. Annabelle's Charm looked a well handicapped filly given her maiden form on the A/W, she disappointed on her handicap debut two months ago after drifting badly in the market so she was far from bombproof. Jamie Spencer failed to keep her straight when making their challenge and as a result couldn't muster a serious challenge. She probably isn't totally straightforward but she has ability and will benefit from stronger handling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Results based on their runs after they appeared on this thread. Aachen............................................ ..............: na Admiral Bond 6f................................................ : na Ainama (jumps)................................. ...............: 3, -1 Ainama (flat)............................................ ........: na Al Gillani........................................... ...............: na Annabelles Charm............................................. : 3, -1 Apotheosis........................................ ...............: na Baby Rock........................................................: na Benhego........................................... ..............: 14, -0.2 Big Eared Fran.............................................. ...: 2130, +3.5 (2nd at 10/1 and 3rd Cheltenham) Big Fella Thanks............................................ ...: 36, -2 Binocular......................................... .................: 3, -1 Blueberry Ice (on quicker ground).........................: na Bob Hall.............................................. ............: 2, -1 Born Tobouggie......................................... .........: na Boscage........................................... ...............: 14, -0.71 Boss Hog (7f on fibresand)...................................: 3, -1 Bowleaze.......................................... ...............: na Bronze Cannon............................................ .....: na Budhist Monk.............................................. ......: na Busy Isit (after lay-off).......................................: na Cabopino.......................................... ...............: na Calzaghe.......................................... ................: na Can't Buy Time (at and around 3m4f)....................: na Caoba............................................. .................: na Cape Express........................................... ........: 3, -1 Carruthers........................................ ...............: na Casilda........................................... ..................: na Cecily (on poly or turf)........................................: 324, -3 Celestial Halo.............................................. ......: x, -1 Changing The Guard............................................: 213, -0.12 Character Building (with headgear).........................: 01, +15 Charm School............................................ ........: na Checklow.......................................... ................: na Christina Rossetti.......................................... .....: na Coe (at and around 3m4f)....................................: 2, -1 Colonel Sherman........................................... .....: 23, -2 Colour Of Money............................................. ...: 5, -1 Crown Choice............................................ ..........: na Dance The Star.............................................. .....: na Dan Tucker (jumps)................ ................ ...........: 1, +3.50 Dan Tucker (flat)............................................ ....: na Daraiym (flat)..................................... ...............: 11, +7 Dave's Dream............................................. .......: na Dazzling Begum (with strong jockey).......................: 2, -1 Description (dependant on new mark).....................: 1, +2.13 Don't Stop Me Now.............................................: na Dover's Hill (right-handed and/or over chases)..........: 2, -1 Dreamy Sweeney........................................... ....: na Drew Drop Inn............................................... ....: na Drum Major............................................. ..........: 8, -1 Eastern Aria.............................................. ........: 1, +2.25 Eradicate......................................... ................: 22, -2 Expresso Star.............................................. .....: na Fancy Footsteps......................................... ......: na Focail Eile.............................................. ..........: 1, +6 Forget It................................................ ..........: na Gee Dee Nen (jumps)........................................... : 3, -1 Gee Dee Nen (flat)............................................ .: na Ghufa............................................. .................: 3428, -4 Gloucester (jumps)........................................... ...: 1000, -2 Gloucester (flat)............................................ .....: na Great Knight............................................ ...........: na Green Velvet............................................ ..........: 311, +7 Harald Bluetooh.......................................... .......: 1, +0.8 Herrera........................................... ..................: na High Cross............................................. ...........: 32, -2 Horner Woods............................................. ......: na Hunting Country........................................... .......: na If You Knew Suzy.............................................. ..: na Ikorodu Road (staying chases in the future).............: na Imaam............................................. ..................: na I'm Delilah........................................... ..............: 2, -1 Itshim............................................ ..................: 11, +2.5 James Pollard........................................... ...........: na Joe Jo Star (flat)............................................ ...: 2, -1 Joe Jo Star (hurdles)......................................... .: 13, -0.2 (3rd at 20/1) Kefalonia......................................... .................: 5, -1 Key Of Fortune (in classified company)..................: na Khan Tengri (1m4f and over handicaps)..................: na Kidlat (over 1m4+)............................................. : 5, -1 Kings Colour............................................ ..........: 64, -2 Kings Forest............................................ ..........: na Kipchak..............................................................: na L'Hirondelle...................................... ..................: 1, +4.5 Lady Hestia............................................ ............: na Lamanver Homerun........................................... ..: 5, -1 Laudatory......................................... .................: na Lavender Track............................................. .....: F, -1 Light From Mars.............................................. ......: na Manere Bay............................................... ..........: na Mastery........................................... .................: na Meshtri........................................... ...................: na Mattamia.......................................... ..................: na Middle Of Nowhere........................................... ....: na Miss Keck.............................................................: na Miss Serena............................................ .............: na Moon Crystal (on polytrack)...................................: 12423 (btn sh twice) -0.5 Mr Macattack......................................... ...........: na Mrs Bun (on fibresand)........................................ : 24, -2 Nabeeda (with headgear or on turf)........................: na Negotiation....................................... ................: 1, +4.5 Nightjar (on fibresand)........................................ : 11, +4.5 Nordwind.......................................... ................: 12, +0.10 Noticeable (no headgear, gd ground in sellers)..........: 14, 0.25 Obe Royal (7f).............................................. .....: 12122201, +13.75 Optimus Maximus........................................... ......: 2, -1 Opus Maximus........................................... ..........: 8, -1 Palace Moon.............................................. .........: na Parnassian (especially on fibresand)........................: na Pension Policy (with headgear change)....................: na Petit Robin (left handed).......................................: x, -1 Petrovsky......................................... ................: 11, +1.07 Ping Pong Sivola............................................ .....: F, -1 Planetory Motion............................................ ....: 0, -1 Poker De Sivola............................................ ......: 0, -1 Poquelin.......................................... ..................: 7, -1 Razor Royale............................................ ..........: na Rocky Ryan.............................................. .........: P, -1 Ronaldo Des Mottes............................................ ..: 120, +1 Samons Son............................................... ........: na Scarab............................................ ..................: 5, -1 Set The Trend............................................. ........: na Seven Is My Number............................................ : x, -1 Shenanigan (with headgear)...................................: na Silk Affair............................................ ...............: 111, +15.65 Snow Dancer............................................ ..........: 22, -2 Spring Of Fame.............................................. .....: na St Moritz............................................ ...............: na Stagecoach Jade.............................................. ....: na Star Choice............................................ ............: 4251x2, -2 Street Power............................................. .........: na Super Judge (gd ground or quicker)..........................: na Sweet Lightning......................................... ..........: na Tactful........................................... .....................: na Tartan Gigha............................................. ..........: 2U, -2 Tasheba........................................... ..................: 1, +0.4 Thebes............................................ ...................: 08, -2 The Galloping Shoe.............................................. ...: na The Old Pretender (especially novice chases)..............: na The Package........................................... .............: 0, -1 This Ones For Eddy.............................................. ..: na Tiffany Lady (in classified company)..........................: na Top Tribute...........................................................: na Torphichen........................................ ..................: na Towy Valley............................................ .............: na Trade Centre (esp over 7f)......................................: na Tuxedo............................................ ...................: na Walkon............................................ ....................: 21, +1 Watson's Bay............................................... .........: na Woody's Dream............................................. .......: 5, -1 Yamal............................................. ....................: 2, -1 Yossi............................................. .....................: na Future bets suggested : 142 Winners: 40 2nds: 31 3rds: 16 unplaced: 55 30.42pts PROFIT 28% S/R 22% Yield

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Hi Billy I watched Negotiations race yesterday and the one that caught my eye was the William Haggas horse that finished 3rd, Tiger Flash. Wasn't given a very hard time but stayed on well in the closing stages. I think it could be one to watch in handicaps over 10 furlongs on faster ground. Just to see if you have any strong opinions on that?? Thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary

Hi Billy I watched Negotiations race yesterday and the one that caught my eye was the William Haggas horse that finished 3rd, Tiger Flash. Wasn't given a very hard time but stayed on well in the closing stages. I think it could be one to watch in handicaps over 10 furlongs on faster ground. Just to see if you have any strong opinions on that?? Thanks.
Hi Jack, well you couldn't see the first half of the race due to the ATR split screen and the fog. Thankfully the egg n spoon race at Fairyhouse finished so ATR came up with the whacky idea of having a full screen showing of a UK race, with commentary too! Who'da thunk it? Anyway, yes I agree the horse definitely finished his race. Not sure how strong the race is yet, I know the Chapple-Hyam (2nd) wasn't particularly well-fancied (with regards to others yesterday) and Dream Well is clearly capable of better. I'm sure Tiger Flash's shrewd trainer will no doubt find a race for the horse, it was an encouraging debut last season too (although may've just been a case of passing beaten horses) - I agree he should get an easy 10f, although I don't necessarily think he needs quicker ground, seemed to go through the soft ground on debut ok, and they watered quite a bit yesterday so it was good edging towards g/s. All in all, I personally would expect the winner to beat Tiger Flash by at least the same distance if they re-opposed. Negotation is very much the horse to take from the race for me, he still showed signs of greeness yesterday I thought. :ok
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 14th April Just the one runner from the list today, Buddhist Monk, who ran a solid race to finish 3rd in the last at Yarmouth. The whole day revolved around the 3.50 for me, I made it a definite match between Aakef and Bouvardia and would've been amazed had the race not gone to one of the well handicapped pair. Aakef was well regarded by the yard last year, was sent of as low as 7/1 for the Windsor Castle stakes at Royal Ascot despite losing on debut, however I thought he looked a little soft in a finish. That said, he looked potentially well treated (OR 81) and there was every reason to believe the horse's mind would be more on the job this term as he has since been gelded. Connections quoted last year that he can be handful at home, and it could be key to the horses' success this season. I'm certain a decision to 'cut' a horse that is highly regarded wasn't one made lightly and I'm sure connections are convinced he'll improve for it. Everyone's favourite trainer, Henry Cecil, has started the season well and his Bouvardia looked equally well treated. She beat a big field here last season after two 2nds including one against the decent Snoqualmie Girl - form that made her OR of 83 look very lenient. Again I was prepared to forgive a poor handicap debut of last season as I feel the ground was too soft for her on that final 2yo start. I decided to split my stakes evenly on the pair and I really did think that Bouvardia was tremendous value at 4/1 this morning. She was backed down to 85/40 on course but Aakef got first run on her and despite a lightning-fast finish she could not peg back the winner. As expected they filled the 1-2 spots but we got the consolation prize you could say. Both look set for a decent season though. I felt Lucky Dancer could improve and what he has already shown given he was stepped up to 2m for the first time. David Elsworth does so well with staying handicappers and they fact he has persevered with this lowly rated gelded should not be ignored. He did indeed put up an improved display, taking it up over 2f from home but didn't quite get home, fading into 5th. I think perhaps Alan Munro took it up a little early, and/or he may be worth a try at 1m6f. I'm sure there is a race for him. I spoke in greater previously regarding Buddhist Monk's seasonal debut at Doncaster. Although he appears to be well handicapped and possess plenty of ability he is far from straightforward, but given his running style and the 8 runners going to post, he looked a cast-iron E/W bet in the last today. Although visibility wasn't great due to the fog, he looked the likely winner around 2f out, but was a beaten 3rd when they came back into view after drifting to the far rail. He does need everything to drop right, possible over further, but there are races to be won with him and I will continue to monitor his entries.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 15th April Cheltenham Didn't play but the 4 of the list ran at Cheltenham, one winner - Tasheba at 9/2. Another unbeaten horses since going on the list. Beverley Just the one bet for me at Beverley, Jack My Boy in the first who won nicely. His 3rd LTO to Archers Road is starting to read well and IMO experience is vital with early 2yo's. Sirvino took the 3.45 nicely and will win more handicaps, Come To Thea back in 10th ran better than it suggests and will find a race or two. Newmarket Plenty of winners will come out the maidens (1.50, 5.20) - races to bear in mind for sure. Monitor Closely and Moneycantbuymelove were the horse to take out the 3.00 for me and they are the two that go on the list. The former pulled very hard early but travelled well once settled and wasn't helped by the winner drifting from the rail. Moneycantbuymelove was just your typical Jamie Spencer howler. Kempton One runner from the list, Set The Trend, and he was my strongest bet of the day. He went to the top of my to-follow list after his run at Lingfield LTO and it was almost a love letter that I wrote after that performance...

The most interesting runner of the day for me was Set The Trend (Lingfield 4.00). He was a rare debut winner for Andrew Balding in Feb after being subject of a morning gamble. He had a stress-fracture (pelvis) last season but connections' patience paid off last month when he got the better of subsequent winner Dance And Dance at the first time of asking. The fact he was hampered and clipped heels early in the race, and that the yard's horses usually come on for the run, made this debut win even more encouraging. Recent Balding stable-stars all failed to win on debut; Dream Eater, Buccalleti, Banknote, Vanderlin, Pentecost, Border Music, Diktatorial, Passing Glance, Casual Look, Pheonix Reach. You have to take note any time this yard has a debut winner, the only one I can remember is Kalahari Gold who went on to have a fantastic season. Set The Trend was well backed on debut however so perhaps he won't improve as much as some of his stablemates after debut but he still looks set for more success. He made his handicap debut today and it looked like the handicapper had given him every chance off a mark of 80. It isn't easy for an inexperienced/exciteable horse to win a handicap this early (2nd start in this instance), this is why he isn't on the list already, I wanted to him to get another run under his belt before getting stuck into him properly. I did back him (min stakes) today, just in case, I took 2.62 and he was smashed down to 8/13. Worringly for his backers he was 'coltish' in the paddock, a horse rarely goes on to win after this happens and in the race itself he raced keenly refusing to settle - the pace was far from ideal. Despite all this he kept on well to finish 3rd. The majority will see this as a disappointing performance due to his SP but in actual fact this was an extremely encouraging performance under the circumstances. After all, even Kalahari Gold was beaten on his handicap debut on his 2nd start. Set The Trend learnt a lot today, it will be a different story NTO and he looks sure to make his mark pay.
He won nicely enough, still looking green inside the last, and will continue to progress. I took 3.6 this morning, his SP was 13/8. Keep Ringing ran well back in 4th and should find a handicap. Gold Again ran well from the 1 box in the following race and Walter Swinburn should find a low grade spring for this one before long. Just remembered there was another runner from the list, Colonel Sherman in the first, but he had it all to do in the claimer - wrong at the weights and I personally didn't play. Under the circumstances he ran a cracker to finish 3rd and remains on the list as he should go well when back in his grade. WILL EDIT LATER FOR FINAL TWO RACES Results based on their runs after they appeared on this thread. Aachen............................................ ..............: na Aakef..............................................................: na Admiral Bond 6f................................................ : na Ainama (jumps)................................. ...............: 3, -1 Ainama (flat)............................................ ........: na Al Gillani........................................... ...............: na Annabelles Charm............................................. : 3, -1 Apotheosis........................................ ...............: na Baby Rock.............................................. ..........: na Benhego........................................... ..............: 14, -0.2 Big Eared Fran.............................................. ...: 2130, +3.5 (2nd at 10/1 and 3rd Cheltenham) Big Fella Thanks............................................ ...: 36, -2 Binocular......................................... .................: 3, -1 Blueberry Ice (on quicker ground).........................: na Bob Hall.............................................. ............: 2, -1 Born Tobouggie......................................... .........: na Boscage........................................... ...............: 14, -0.71 Boss Hog (7f on fibresand)...................................: 3, -1 Bouvardia..........................................................: na Bowleaze.......................................... ...............: na Bronze Cannon............................................ .....: na Budhist Monk.............................................. ......: 3, -1 Busy Isit (after lay-off).......................................: na Cabopino.......................................... ...............: na Calzaghe.......................................... ................: na Can't Buy Time (at and around 3m4f)....................: na Caoba............................................. .................: na Cape Express........................................... ........: 3, -1 Carruthers........................................ ...............: na Casilda........................................... ..................: na Cecily (on poly or turf)........................................: 324, -3 Celestial Halo.............................................. ......: x, -1 Changing The Guard............................................: 213, -0.12 Character Building (with headgear).........................: 01, +15 Charm School............................................ ........: na Checklow.......................................... ................: na Christina Rossetti.......................................... .....: na Coe (at and around 3m4f)....................................: 2, -1 Colonel Sherman........................................... .....: 233, -3 Colour Of Money............................................. ...: 5, -1 Come To Thea.....................................................: na Crown Choice............................................ ..........: na Dance The Star.............................................. .....: na Dan Tucker (jumps)................ ................ ...........: 1, +3.50 Dan Tucker (flat)............................................ ....: na Daraiym (flat)..................................... ...............: 11, +7 Dave's Dream............................................. .......: x, -1 Dazzling Begum (with strong jockey).......................: 2, -1 Description (dependant on new mark).....................: 1, +2.13 Don't Stop Me Now.............................................: na Dover's Hill (right-handed and/or over chases)..........: 2, -1 Dreamy Sweeney........................................... ....: na Drew Drop Inn............................................... ....: na Drum Major............................................. ..........: 8, -1 Eastern Aria.............................................. ........: 1, +2.25 Eradicate......................................... ................: 22, -2 Expresso Star.............................................. .....: na Fancy Footsteps......................................... ......: na Focail Eile.............................................. ..........: 1, +6 Forget It................................................ ..........: na Gee Dee Nen (jumps)........................................... : 3, -1 Gee Dee Nen (flat)............................................ .: na Ghufa............................................. .................: 3428, -4 Gloucester (jumps)........................................... ...: 1000, -2 Gloucester (flat)............................................ .....: na Gold Again...........................................................: na Great Knight............................................ ...........: na Green Velvet............................................ ..........: 311, +7 Harald Bluetooh.......................................... .......: 1, +0.8 Herrera........................................... ..................: na High Cross............................................. ...........: 32, -2 Horner Woods............................................. ......: na Hunting Country........................................... .......: na If You Knew Suzy.............................................. ..: na Ikorodu Road (staying chases in the future).............: na Imaam............................................. ..................: na I'm Delilah........................................... ..............: 2, -1 Itshim............................................ ..................: 11, +2.5 James Pollard........................................... ...........: na Joe Jo Star (flat)............................................ ...: 2, -1 Joe Jo Star (hurdles)......................................... .: 13, -0.2 (3rd at 20/1) Keep Ringing.......................................................: na Kefalonia......................................... .................: 5, -1 Key Of Fortune (in classified company)..................: na Khan Tengri (1m4f and over handicaps)..................: na Kidlat (over 1m4+)............................................. : 5, -1 Kings Colour............................................ ..........: 64, -2 Kings Forest............................................ ..........: na Kipchak........................................... ...................: na L'Hirondelle...................................... ..................: 1, +4.5 Lady Hestia............................................ ............: na Lamanver Homerun........................................... ..: 5, -1 Laudatory......................................... .................: na Lavender Track............................................. .....: F, -1 Light From Mars.............................................. ......: na Lucky Dancer........................................................: na Manere Bay............................................... ..........: na Mastery........................................... .................: na Meshtri........................................... ...................: na Mattamia.......................................... ..................: na Middle Of Nowhere........................................... ....: na Miss Keck.............................................. ...............: na Miss Serena............................................ .............: na Moneycantbuymelove.............................................: na Monitor Closely.....................................................: na Moon Crystal (on polytrack)...................................: 12423 (btn sh twice) -0.5 Mr Macattack......................................... ...........: na Mrs Bun (on fibresand)........................................ : 24, -2 Nabeeda (with headgear or on turf)........................: na Negotiation....................................... ................: 1, +4.5 Nightjar (on fibresand)........................................ : 11, +4.5 Nordwind.......................................... ................: 12, +0.10 Noticeable (no headgear, gd ground in sellers)..........: 14, 0.25 Obe Royal (7f).............................................. .....: 12122201, +13.75 Optimus Maximus........................................... ......: 2, -1 Opus Maximus........................................... ..........: 8, -1 Palace Moon.............................................. .........: na Parnassian (especially on fibresand)........................: na Pension Policy (with headgear change)....................: na Petit Robin (left handed).......................................: x, -1 Petrovsky......................................... ................: 11, +1.07 Ping Pong Sivola............................................ .....: F, -1 Planetory Motion............................................ ....: 0, -1 Poker De Sivola............................................ ......: 0, -1 Poquelin.......................................... ..................: 7, -1 Razor Royale............................................ ..........: na Rocky Ryan.............................................. .........: P, -1 Ronaldo Des Mottes............................................ ..: 120, +1 Samons Son............................................... ........: na Scarab............................................ ..................: 5, -1 Set The Trend............................................. ........: 1, 1.63 Seven Is My Number............................................ : xx, -2 Shenanigan (with headgear)...................................: na Silk Affair............................................ ...............: 111, +15.65 Sirvino................................................................: na Snow Dancer............................................ ..........: 22, -2 Spring Of Fame.............................................. .....: na St Moritz............................................ ...............: na Stagecoach Jade.............................................. ....: na Star Choice............................................ ............: 4251x2, -2 Street Power............................................. .........: na Super Judge (gd ground or quicker)..........................: na Sweet Lightning......................................... ..........: na Tactful........................................... .....................: na Tartan Gigha............................................. ..........: 2U, -2 Tasheba........................................... ..................: 11, +4.9 Thebes............................................ ...................: 08, -2 The Galloping Shoe.............................................. ...: na The Old Pretender (especially novice chases)..............: na The Package........................................... .............: 0, -1 This Ones For Eddy.............................................. ..: na Tiffany Lady (in classified company)..........................: na Top Tribute........................................... ................: na Torphichen........................................ ..................: 6, -1 Towy Valley............................................ .............: na Trade Centre (esp over 7f)......................................: na Tuxedo............................................ ...................: na Walkon............................................ ....................: 21, +1 Watson's Bay............................................... .........: na Woody's Dream............................................. .......: 5, -1 Yamal............................................. ....................: 2, -1 Yossi............................................. .....................: na Future bets suggested : 149 Winners: 42 2nds: 31 3rds: 18 unplaced: 58 31.55pts PROFIT 28% S/R 21% Yield
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Did you watch Set The Trends' race? Surely a very fortunate winner considering the 2nd horse didn't get clear run 2 out and must have cost him 2 or 3 lengths on the winner. The Swinburn horse would have my money every time if the pair were to meet again judging on tonights evidence.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary

Did you watch Set The Trends' race? Surely a very fortunate winner considering the 2nd horse didn't get clear run 2 out and must have cost him 2 or 3 lengths on the winner. The Swinburn horse would have my money every time if the pair were to meet again judging on tonights evidence.
I personally thought the winner pulled out a lot more near the finish and would have won whatever. However, I cant deny that the Swinburn horse was unlucky and will win races.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary It did pull out more, once Kirby hit his horse with the whip it drifted all over the shot but at the finish, he was closing again. Surely had he got clear run 2 out and went with Set The Trend, the result would have been different rather than having to come from 3 lengths back to chase the winner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary

It did pull out more, once Kirby hit his horse with the whip it drifted all over the shot but at the finish, he was closing again. Surely had he got clear run 2 out and went with Set The Trend, the result would have been different rather than having to come from 3 lengths back to chase the winner.
One of those horrible ones isnt it :) We will never know what would have happened if the Swinburn horse had got there earlier - would Set the Trend have been able to hold him off - anybody's guess. As you say though, the 2nd was unlucky and it would be an interesting rematch.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Yeah I've watched the race 5/6 times Jack. I don't agree at all mate. The 2nd was short of a room but he never lost 2/3l like you suggest. Like stew said once he challenged Set The Trend pulled it out not once, but twice, Keniry even pulled up for the last couple of strides. IMO, Set The Trend would've won even if the 2nd had a clear run, he would've continued to pull out more, besides the only reason the 2nd got close was because Set The Trend stopped as soon as he got to the front, still green as grass. The Sporing Life form line says the 2nd was "held near finish" The RP form line for the 2nd says "outbattled" I totally agree, it was the winner playing about a little, you can see that with his sudden bursts to go one length clear as soon as he was challenged. Depends how you see it I 'spose but at the same weights next week I'd bet... Set The Trend 2/5 Anitinori 7/4

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 16th April Five from the list ran today... Aachen 3rd 2/1 Caoba 3rd 3/1 Christina Rossetti unpl Stagecoach Jade WON 9/2 The Package 3rd 40/1 Didn't back Aachen as I think he needs soft ground, Caoba's race was too competitive for me, I fancied Balaagha in Christina Rossetti's race (see below), so managed to dodge those losers. Not happy regarding the other two though, I decided to leave Stagecoach Jade's race alone only to see her win, but I did play smallish on The Package E/W. Thought Timmy Murphy gave him far too much to do. A winning bet but a missed opportunity I feel. He was still motionless on the turn when well of the pace. I'm certain there is a big race in this horse. Onto the review... Delegator was impressive in the Craven and must go close in the Guineas providing this hasn't taken the edge off him. My first bet came in the 4.45 where I expected Balaagha to improve greatly on her debut 5th of last season. She played up in the preliminaries and went to post very keenly. It was much the same during the early stages of the race as Richard Hills was unable to settle her. Despite this she cut through the field with relative ease and threw it down to the Ryan Moore ridden Resort. It looked as if she get the better of her rival in the finish but Richard Hills chose to hit her with the stick just once and she went down by the narrowest of margins. With so much going wrong for her, to get within millimetres of winning was as fine performance and maiden success looks a mere formality. She is a potentially pattern class. The following race was the 10f 3y0 handicap that last year saw Bronze Cannon and Doctor Fremantle fight out a close finish. Michael Stoute targets this race well, over the past four years we have seen him run Doctor Fremantle (btn nk), Regal Flush (btn nk), Papal Bull (won), and Zalongo (btn hd). This year he was represented by Imposing, who looked sure to appreciate the step up 1m2f. He took my eye last season in that 7f sales race won by Donativum, he was tailed off at the mid point but when he hit the rising ground he flew, cutting threw half the field as if they were standing still. Imposing also holds a Derby entry and the fact that Doctor Fremantle, Regal Flush, Papal Bull, and Balakheri (won this 2002) all went on to contest a classic after faring well in this race, bode well for his chances. Ryan Moore travelled well on Imposing before making what looked like a race winning challenge to take it up inside the last. He was undone however by Perpetually who, despite looking beat when passed by Imposing, got his head down at the line to record a short-head victory. The handicapper will probably have his say with Imposing but he still remains of great interest. Not the start I was looking for at HQ in 2009 but wrong with regards to judgement so can claim a moral victory. Much prefer immoral financial victories though. The horse to take away from Ripon was the Willie Haggas trained Mutamaashi, who despite beaten at a short price, ran a race full of promise on handicap debut. He will not have to wait long to gain compensation. There was justice at Wolverhampton thankfully, I made Shark Man a good thing based on his Brocklesby 5th and 2nd to Soccer previously and despite looking like he'd improve for 6f he won comfortably enough come the finish. I advised taking the 2/1 and even with the rule4 it beat the SP (10/11) massively. The following race saw Mark Johnston's Stagecoach Jade make it two from two winning by 3/4l on her handicap debut. The 2nd, Abu Dubai, was an alarming drifter all day (16 => 140 on the exchanges) but ran another solid race on polytrack and looks sure to find a similar event. Never Ending Tale, now trained by Ed Vaughan, looks to have started the season on a fair mark and was well backed for his seasonal debut. He looked the winner on the turn for home, but doesn't find a great deal off the bridle. He will benefit from a more waiting ride and will get his head in front if he stays this well handicapped. Results based on their runs after they appeared on this thread. Aachen............................................ ..............: 3, -1 Aakef............................................. .................: na Abu Dubai Admiral Bond 6f................................................ : na Ainama (jumps)................................. ...............: 3, -1 Ainama (flat)............................................ ........: na Al Gillani........................................... ...............: x, -1 Annabelles Charm............................................. : 3, -1 Apotheosis........................................ ...............: na Baby Rock.............................................. ..........: na Balaagha Benhego........................................... ..............: 14, -0.2 Big Eared Fran.............................................. ...: 2130, +3.5 (2nd at 10/1 and 3rd Cheltenham) Big Fella Thanks............................................ ...: 36, -2 Binocular......................................... .................: 3, -1 Blueberry Ice (on quicker ground).........................: na Bob Hall.............................................. ............: 2, -1 Born Tobouggie......................................... .........: na Boscage........................................... ...............: 14, -0.71 Boss Hog (7f on fibresand)...................................: 3, -1 Bouvardia......................................... .................: na Bowleaze.......................................... ...............: na Bronze Cannon............................................ .....: na Budhist Monk.............................................. ......: 3, -1 Busy Isit (after lay-off).......................................: na Cabopino.......................................... ...............: na Calzaghe.......................................... ................: 1, +8 Can't Buy Time (at and around 3m4f)....................: na Caoba............................................. .................: 3, -1 Cape Express........................................... ........: 3, -1 Carruthers........................................ ...............: na Casilda........................................... ..................: na Cecily (on poly or turf)........................................: 324, -3 Celestial Halo.............................................. ......: x, -1 Changing The Guard............................................: 213, -0.12 Character Building (with headgear).........................: 01, +15 Charm School............................................ ........: 7, -1 Checklow.......................................... ................: na Christina Rossetti.......................................... .....: x, -1 Coe (at and around 3m4f)....................................: 2, -1 Colonel Sherman........................................... .....: 233, -3 Colour Of Money............................................. ...: 5, -1 Come To Thea.............................................. .......: na Crown Choice............................................ ..........: na Dance The Star.............................................. .....: na Dan Tucker (jumps)................ ................ ...........: 1F, +2.50 Dan Tucker (flat)............................................ ....: na Daraiym (flat)..................................... ...............: 11, +7 Dave's Dream............................................. .......: x, -1 Dazzling Begum (with strong jockey).......................: 2, -1 Description (dependant on new mark).....................: 1, +2.13 Don't Stop Me Now.............................................: na Dover's Hill (right-handed and/or over chases)..........: 2, -1 Dreamy Sweeney........................................... ....: na Drew Drop Inn............................................... ....: na Drum Major............................................. ..........: 8, -1 Eastern Aria.............................................. ........: 1, +2.25 Eradicate......................................... ................: 22, -2 Expresso Star.............................................. .....: na Fancy Footsteps......................................... ......: na Fanjura Focail Eile.............................................. ..........: 1, +6 Forget It................................................ ..........: na Garter Knight......................................................: na Gee Dee Nen (jumps)........................................... : 3, -1 Gee Dee Nen (flat)............................................ .: na Ghufa............................................. .................: 3428, -4 Gloucester (jumps)........................................... ...: 1000, -2 Gloucester (flat)............................................ .....: na Gold Again............................................. ..............: na Great Knight............................................ ...........: na Green Velvet............................................ ..........: 311, +7 Harald Bluetooh.......................................... .......: 1, +0.8 Herrera........................................... ..................: 0, -1 High Cross............................................. ...........: 32, -2 Horner Woods............................................. ......: na Hunting Country........................................... .......: na If You Knew Suzy.............................................. ..: na Ikorodu Road (staying chases in the future).............: na Imaam............................................. ..................: na Imposing I'm Delilah........................................... ..............: 2, -1 Itshim............................................ ..................: 11, +2.5 James Pollard........................................... ...........: na Joe Jo Star (flat)............................................ ...: 2, -1 Joe Jo Star (hurdles)......................................... .: 13, -0.2 (3rd at 20/1) Keep Ringing........................................... ............: na Kefalonia......................................... .................: 5, -1 Key Of Fortune (in classified company)..................: na Khan Tengri (1m4f and over handicaps)..................: na Kidlat (over 1m4+)............................................. : 5, -1 Kings Colour............................................ ..........: 64, -2 Kings Forest............................................ ..........: na Kipchak........................................... ...................: na L'Hirondelle...................................... ..................: 1, +4.5 Lady Hestia............................................ ............: na Lamanver Homerun........................................... ..: 5, -1 Laudatory......................................... .................: na Lavender Track............................................. .....: F, -1 Liberally...............................................................: na Light From Mars.............................................. ......: na Lucky Dancer............................................ ............: na Madam President....................................................: na Manere Bay............................................... ..........: na Mastery........................................... .................: na Mawatheeq..........................................................: na Meshtri........................................... ...................: na Mattamia.......................................... ..................: na Middle Of Nowhere........................................... ....: na Miss Keck.............................................. ...............: na Miss Serena............................................ .............: na Moneycantbuymelove................................ .............: na Monitor Closely........................................... ..........: na Moon Crystal (on polytrack)...................................: 12423 (btn sh twice) -0.5 Mr Macattack......................................... ...........: na Mrs Bun (on fibresand)........................................ : 24, -2 Mutamaashi Nabeeda (with headgear or on turf)........................: na Negotiation....................................... ................: 1, +4.5 Never Ending Tale Nightjar (on fibresand)........................................ : 11, +4.5 Nordwind.......................................... ................: 12, +0.10 Noticeable (no headgear, gd ground in sellers)..........: 14, 0.25 Obe Royal (7f).............................................. .....: 12122201, +13.75 Optimus Maximus........................................... ......: 2, -1 Opus Maximus........................................... ..........: 8, -1 Palace Moon.............................................. .........: na Parnassian (especially on fibresand)........................: na Pension Policy (with headgear change)....................: na Petit Robin (left handed).......................................: x, -1 Petrovsky......................................... ................: 11, +1.07 Ping Pong Sivola............................................ .....: F, -1 Planetory Motion............................................ ....: 0, -1 Poker De Sivola............................................ ......: 0, -1 Poquelin.......................................... ..................: 7, -1 Razor Royale............................................ ..........: na Rocky Ryan.............................................. .........: P, -1 Ronaldo Des Mottes............................................ ..: 120, +1 Samons Son............................................... ........: na Scarab............................................ ..................: 5, -1 Set The Trend............................................. ........: 1, 1.63 Seven Is My Number............................................ : xx, -2 Sevenna.............................................................: na Shenanigan (with headgear)...................................: na Silk Affair............................................ ...............: 111, +15.65 Sirvino........................................... .....................: na Snow Dancer............................................ ..........: 22, -2 Solas Alainn.........................................................: na Spring Of Fame.............................................. .....: na St Moritz............................................ ...............: na Stagecoach Jade.............................................. ....:1, +4.5 Star Choice............................................ ............: 4251x2, -2 Street Power............................................. .........: na Super Judge (gd ground or quicker)..........................: na Sweet Lightning......................................... ..........: na Swingkeel.............................................................: na Tactful........................................... .....................: na Tartan Gigha............................................. ..........: 2U, -2 Tasheba........................................... ..................: 11, +4.9 Thebes............................................ ...................: 08, -2 The Galloping Shoe.............................................. ...: na The Old Pretender (especially novice chases)..............: na The Package........................................... .............: 03, -2 This Ones For Eddy.............................................. ..: na Tiffany Lady (in classified company)..........................: na Top Tribute........................................... ................: na Torphichen........................................ ..................: 6, -1 Towy Valley............................................ .............: na Trade Centre (esp over 7f)......................................: na Tuxedo............................................ ...................: na Walkon............................................ ....................: 21, +1 Watson's Bay............................................... .........: 0, -1 Woody's Dream............................................. .......: 5, -1 Yamal............................................. ....................: 2, -1 Yossi............................................. .....................: na Future bets suggested : 160 Winners: 44 2nds: 31 3rds: 21 unplaced: 64 35.05pts PROFIT 28% S/R 23% Yield

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Out of interest billy. I checked your link (signature) and do you update that on a daily basis or is it afterwards? Maybe not the place to ask but do you have a website or such, being a tipster etc??? I just ask as I see you proof to the racingpost aswell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Are you a Milwall fan Billy ? I'm a Leeds fan, not looking forward to play offs if we play you. Not because of the football, more the off the pitch stuff. Could be pretty dangerous. Best of luck, I agree about the Balding horse the other day. I also thought the Cumani horse at Wolverhampton last night will win a few handicaps this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary

Are you a Milwall fan Billy ? I'm a Leeds fan, not looking forward to play offs if we play you. Not because of the football, more the off the pitch stuff. Could be pretty dangerous. Best of luck, I agree about the Balding horse the other day. I also thought the Cumani horse at Wolverhampton last night will win a few handicaps this year.
Yes mate I am. I agree we really don't want to clash. It's only gonna end one way, I think if we meet in the play off semi they will ban away fans. If we meet at Wembley there will be less trouble obviously. Lets hope it works out ok. The Cumani horse was backed as if defeat was out the question. Got very warm and was sweating between the legs apparently. Worth another chance I'm sure. :ok
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 17th & 18th April Tough two days for me. Friday Madam President (Kempton) won in the style of a well handicapped horse and could win more races this year. Little else entered the notebook although Cheveton and Fullandby (Newbury) did well from low draws in the sprint. Saturday A difficult day, again no strong selections, I opted for some big priced selections who I believed represented real value. Many ran decent races without winning. In the Spring Cup at Newbury Fanjura ran a fine race and is definitely capable of winning a nice race. Charm School broke slowest of all losing a few lengths, so in fairness probably ran well to finish a 4.5l 7th. I got the impression he is still coming to hand this year so remains in the notebook - may come into his own over 10f however. Mawatheeq ran better than the result suggests, and although hard to place, will do better on quicker ground. Swingkeel ran well on his reappearance in the 4.50 and will be interesting over staying handicaps in the near future. Liberally will come on a bundle for her 6th in the 5.20, and Kidlat (a place behind) will find easier tasks to get off the mark. Not many got into the 2.30 at Thirsk and although he isn't totally straightforward Flawed Genius was never put in the race. They were strung out at halfway due to a frantic pace and the horse did not receive the cover a horse of his type needs. Solas Alainn ran a race full of promise in the 3.00, keeping on well for 3rd after coming under pressure when entering the straight. He still looked green and should find a handicap soon over 1m4f or further. Was certain L'Aventure would run a race in the Scottish National and I think I was a little unlucky in the 33/1 E/W bet. People will say she ran her usual race, staying on after getting outpaced, but I'm not so sure. These days, due to a change in tactics, she is racing more prominently and she was going well in touch until a horrendous blunder at the 19th. She lost lengths and her place after that but stayed on well for 6th place. I'm certain she would've had a say in the finish but for that error. In the evening card at Nottingham, Garter Knight ran a race full of promise in the 6.35. Showed a decent turn of pace to take up proceedings around the two pole but perhaps got there too soon and faded into 4th late on (would've been 3rd but for interference). The way he quickened to the front suggests he is a horse better than his rating suggests and will gain compensation soon I would imagine. A difficult week, a host of unlucky losers, but pleased to still be in the black during the most difficult time of the flat season. Plenty of losing selections ran well this week and I'm sure the winners will flow again in the next day or so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary BTP, regarding The Package, this is a horse i like a lot also Back in Oct 08, it finished 3rd 1.25L in front of Oh Crick over 2m at Cheltenham. Its 7L 2nd to New Little Bric at Newbury at feb was a decent effort but it had a low weight that day & had to be in the 1st 3. Interesting to see it go over 3m the other day & like you, this horse excites me & next year it will be 6 & still a novice over fences therefore i think Pipe should aim it at next years festival & maybe even have a pop at the Paddy power in November which is over 2m 5f from what i recall. Could develop into a decent horse & is in my notebook. :ok

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Definitely agree Rob, certain there is a big one in this horse. Surprised to see them revert to hurdles but like you say this way it remains a novice. Many thought he didn't get the trip (2m4f) at Newbury but I was convinced he did - I wasn't happy with the ride thought (again!). I personally thought he galloped all the way to the line behind New Little Bric. I think the Paddy Power would be ideal, although you have to think they purposely kept him a novice so perhaps they will go different. He'll pay his way for us whatever the plan, I'm sure of that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 19th April Calzaghe won for the list at 8/1. Dan Tucker fell. A decent priced winner was just what the doctor ordered and Calzghe floored his opponents (sorry!) in the first at Lingfield. The chestnut gelding won in better company off a 10lb higher mark 12 months ago, and as he shaped as if he was coming to hand last time out, he couldn't be ignored in weak looking Class 6 handicap. At the turn for home it looked as if Richard Thomas had given his mount far too much to do but he picked up well late and won going away. Sevenna was weak in the market for her seasonal debut but travelled well and looked the likely winner when Tom Queally took up proceedings on her at the 2f marker. She didn't kick on as expected but still looked set for the frame (traded 1/16 in-running for a place), until tiring late on and losing two places inside the last 100yds. I believe she will come on for this and I expect her to go very close on her next outing. Over at Stratford I thought Indian Blood had a decent chance to gain compensation for his last start when he crashed out at the last with the race at his mercy. He put in a puzzling display today, travelled well off the pace before Timmy Murphy rushed him up to challenge. He made ground up very quickly but just as he started to look threatening came under pressure and found little. Despite looking very dangerous after the third last he finished a tired 5th. With regards to timing and tactics I do not think that Timmy Murphy is riding well at present, and Indian Blood's weak finish may have been a result of doing too much, too quickly, in the middle part of the race. Results based on their runs after they appeared on this thread. Aachen............................................ ..............: 3, -1 Aakef............................................. .................: na Abu Dubai Admiral Bond 6f................................................ : na Ainama (jumps)................................. ...............: 3, -1 Ainama (flat)............................................ ........: na Al Gillani........................................... ...............: x, -1 Annabelles Charm............................................. : 3, -1 Apotheosis........................................ ...............: na Baby Rock.............................................. ..........: na Balaagha Benhego........................................... ..............: 14, -0.2 Big Eared Fran.............................................. ...: 2130, +3.5 (2nd at 10/1 and 3rd Cheltenham) Big Fella Thanks............................................ ...: 36, -2 Binocular......................................... .................: 3, -1 Blueberry Ice (on quicker ground).........................: na Bob Hall.............................................. ............: 2, -1 Born Tobouggie......................................... .........: na Boscage........................................... ...............: 14, -0.71 Boss Hog (7f on fibresand)...................................: 3, -1 Bouvardia......................................... .................: na Bowleaze.......................................... ...............: na Bronze Cannon............................................ .....: na Budhist Monk.............................................. ......: 3, -1 Busy Isit (after lay-off).......................................: na Cabopino.......................................... ...............: na Calzaghe.......................................... ................: 1, +8 Can't Buy Time (at and around 3m4f)....................: na Caoba............................................. .................: 3, -1 Cape Express........................................... ........: 3, -1 Carruthers........................................ ...............: na Casilda........................................... ..................: na Cecily (on poly or turf)........................................: 324, -3 Celestial Halo.............................................. ......: x, -1 Changing The Guard............................................: 213, -0.12 Character Building (with headgear).........................: 01, +15 Charm School............................................ ........: 7, -1 Checklow.......................................... ................: na Christina Rossetti.......................................... .....: x, -1 Coe (at and around 3m4f)....................................: 2, -1 Colonel Sherman........................................... .....: 233, -3 Colour Of Money............................................. ...: 5, -1 Come To Thea.............................................. .......: na Crown Choice............................................ ..........: na Dance The Star.............................................. .....: na Dan Tucker (jumps)................ ................ ...........: 1F, +2.50 Dan Tucker (flat)............................................ ....: na Daraiym (flat)..................................... ...............: 11, +7 Dave's Dream............................................. .......: x, -1 Dazzling Begum (with strong jockey).......................: 2, -1 Description (dependant on new mark).....................: 1, +2.13 Don't Stop Me Now.............................................: na Dover's Hill (right-handed and/or over chases)..........: 2, -1 Dreamy Sweeney........................................... ....: na Drew Drop Inn............................................... ....: na Drum Major............................................. ..........: 8, -1 Eastern Aria.............................................. ........: 1, +2.25 Eradicate......................................... ................: 22, -2 Expresso Star.............................................. .....: na Fancy Footsteps......................................... ......: na Fanjura Focail Eile.............................................. ..........: 1, +6 Forget It................................................ ..........: na Garter Knight............................................ ..........: na Gee Dee Nen (jumps)........................................... : 3, -1 Gee Dee Nen (flat)............................................ .: na Ghufa............................................. .................: 3428, -4 Gloucester (jumps)........................................... ...: 1000, -2 Gloucester (flat)............................................ .....: na Gold Again............................................. ..............: na Great Knight............................................ ...........: na Green Velvet............................................ ..........: 311, +7 Harald Bluetooh.......................................... .......: 1, +0.8 Herrera........................................... ..................: 0, -1 High Cross............................................. ...........: 32, -2 Horner Woods............................................. ......: na Hunting Country........................................... .......: na If You Knew Suzy.............................................. ..: na Ikorodu Road (staying chases in the future).............: na Imaam............................................. ..................: na Imposing I'm Delilah........................................... ..............: 2, -1 Itshim............................................ ..................: 11, +2.5 James Pollard........................................... ...........: na Joe Jo Star (flat)............................................ ...: 2, -1 Joe Jo Star (hurdles)......................................... .: 13, -0.2 (3rd at 20/1) Keep Ringing........................................... ............: na Kefalonia......................................... .................: 5, -1 Key Of Fortune (in classified company)..................: na Khan Tengri (1m4f and over handicaps)..................: na Kidlat (over 1m4+)............................................. : 5, -1 Kings Colour............................................ ..........: 64, -2 Kings Forest............................................ ..........: na Kipchak........................................... ...................: na L'Hirondelle...................................... ..................: 1, +4.5 Lady Hestia............................................ ............: na Lamanver Homerun........................................... ..: 5, -1 Laudatory......................................... .................: na Lavender Track............................................. .....: F, -1 Liberally......................................... ......................: na Light From Mars.............................................. ......: na Lucky Dancer............................................ ............: na Madam President......................................... ...........: na Manere Bay............................................... ..........: na Mastery........................................... .................: na Mawatheeq......................................... .................: na Meshtri........................................... ...................: na Mattamia.......................................... ..................: na Middle Of Nowhere........................................... ....: na Miss Keck.............................................. ...............: na Miss Serena............................................ .............: na Moneycantbuymelove................................ .............: na Monitor Closely........................................... ..........: na Moon Crystal (on polytrack)...................................: 12423 (btn sh twice) -0.5 Mr Macattack......................................... ...........: na Mrs Bun (on fibresand)........................................ : 24, -2 Mutamaashi Nabeeda (with headgear or on turf)........................: na Negotiation....................................... ................: 1, +4.5 Never Ending Tale Nightjar (on fibresand)........................................ : 11, +4.5 Nordwind.......................................... ................: 12, +0.10 Noticeable (no headgear, gd ground in sellers)..........: 14, 0.25 Obe Royal (7f).............................................. .....: 12122201, +13.75 Optimus Maximus........................................... ......: 2, -1 Opus Maximus........................................... ..........: 8, -1 Palace Moon.............................................. .........: na Parnassian (especially on fibresand)........................: na Pension Policy (with headgear change)....................: na Petit Robin (left handed).......................................: x, -1 Petrovsky......................................... ................: 11, +1.07 Ping Pong Sivola............................................ .....: F, -1 Planetory Motion............................................ ....: 0, -1 Poker De Sivola............................................ ......: 0, -1 Poquelin.......................................... ..................: 7, -1 Razor Royale............................................ ..........: na Rocky Ryan.............................................. .........: P, -1 Ronaldo Des Mottes............................................ ..: 120, +1 Samons Son............................................... ........: na Scarab............................................ ..................: 5, -1 Set The Trend............................................. ........: 1, 1.63 Seven Is My Number............................................ : xx, -2 Sevenna........................................... ..................: na Shenanigan (with headgear)...................................: na Silk Affair............................................ ...............: 111, +15.65 Sirvino........................................... .....................: na Snow Dancer............................................ ..........: 22, -2 Solas Alainn............................................ .............: na Spring Of Fame.............................................. .....: na St Moritz............................................ ...............: na Stagecoach Jade.............................................. ....:1, +4.5 Star Choice............................................ ............: 4251x2, -2 Street Power............................................. .........: na Super Judge (gd ground or quicker)..........................: na Sweet Lightning......................................... ..........: na Swingkeel......................................... ....................: na Tactful........................................... .....................: na Tartan Gigha............................................. ..........: 2U, -2 Tasheba........................................... ..................: 11, +4.9 Thebes............................................ ...................: 08, -2 The Galloping Shoe.............................................. ...: na The Old Pretender (especially novice chases)..............: na The Package........................................... .............: 03, -2 This Ones For Eddy.............................................. ..: na Tiffany Lady (in classified company)..........................: na Top Tribute........................................... ................: na Torphichen........................................ ..................: 6, -1 Towy Valley............................................ .............: na Trade Centre (esp over 7f)......................................: na Tuxedo............................................ ...................: na Walkon............................................ ....................: 21, +1 Watson's Bay............................................... .........: 0, -1 Woody's Dream............................................. .......: 5, -1 Yamal............................................. ....................: 2, -1 Yossi............................................. .....................: na Future bets suggested : 160 Winners: 44 2nds: 31 3rds: 21 unplaced: 64 35.05pts PROFIT 28% S/R 23% Yield

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 20th April Cheers fin, yes another good day for the list Cecily WON 15/2 This Ones For Eddy WON 4/1 Dovers Hill WON 6/1 Thebes 2nd 9/1 Towy Valley lost Daraiym lost I mentioned earlier in the month how well treated This Ones For Eddy was on turf and last month I said Dover's Hill would improve for going right handed. Many losers are running well in defeat and although that is a fine sign, it can be frustrating. At Pontefract I persevered with Thebes, although his previous two runs have been below par, I do believe he is a well handicapped horse. This stiff 6f suited him and it was a much improved effort to finish a neck 2nd to Advanced. He was perhaps a little unlucky as he was short of room at a pivotal time. I thought there was a chance that Daraiym would cope with his rise in the weights and the step up to 2m6f but he could only finish 6th. It was a puzzling effort, he travelled well throughout and was last off the bridle, he found little however and after being left behind at the 2 pole he stayed on again for hands and heels riding. I still think there could be more to come. I mentioned in previous posts how unlucky and how well in (on the turf) This Ones For Eddy was after his last start. He certainly made his lenient turf rating pay here with an impressive trap to line victory. Ibbetson got himself into the race turning for home and looked the likely 2nd, he weakened fairly quickly though and perhaps needed this. Diego Rivera was well handicapped on last season's maiden form so no surprise to see him score after market support in the 4.20 at Wolverhampton. He should win more races this season now he has his head in front. Lady Amberlini, back in 4th, would've been closer with a clearer passage and she will be interesting in this grade in the near future. Cecily, a recent selection, finally come good in handicap company in the last at Wolverhampton. She was well handicapped on her 2yo form but had to be forgiven for some disappointing recent efforts. Dover's Hill wasn't disgraced behind some decent types in novice and maiden hurdles this season and as a result looked fairly handicapped. Being as I believe this horse is better going right-handed I couldn't ignore him in this Kempton handicap. We won nicely at 6/1 having been available at double those odds during the day. El Bravo was yet another horse given a lot to do by Ryan Moore, had at least 15l to make up approaching 3f out, although that was too big an ask the horse kept on well to snatch 2nd. Results based on their runs after they appeared on this thread. Aachen............................................ ..............: 3, -1 Aakef............................................. .................: na Abu Dubai Admiral Bond 6f................................................ : na Ainama (jumps)................................. ...............: 3, -1 Ainama (flat)............................................ ........: na Al Gillani........................................... ...............: x, -1 Annabelles Charm............................................. : 3, -1 Apotheosis........................................ ...............: na Baby Rock.............................................. ..........: na Balaagha Benhego........................................... ..............: 14, -0.2 Big Eared Fran.............................................. ...: 2130, +3.5 (2nd at 10/1 and 3rd Cheltenham) Big Fella Thanks............................................ ...: 36, -2 Binocular......................................... .................: 3, -1 Blueberry Ice (on quicker ground).........................: na Bob Hall.............................................. ............: 2, -1 Born Tobouggie......................................... .........: na Boscage........................................... ...............: 14, -0.71 Boss Hog (7f on fibresand)...................................: 3, -1 Bouvardia......................................... .................: na Bowleaze.......................................... ...............: na Bronze Cannon............................................ .....: na Budhist Monk.............................................. ......: 3, -1 Busy Isit (after lay-off).......................................: na Cabopino.......................................... ...............: na Calzaghe.......................................... ................: 1, +8 Can't Buy Time (at and around 3m4f)....................: na Caoba............................................. .................: 3, -1 Cape Express........................................... ........: 3, -1 Carruthers........................................ ...............: na Casilda........................................... ..................: na Cecily (on poly or turf)........................................: 3241, +4.5 Celestial Halo.............................................. ......: x, -1 Changing The Guard............................................: 213, -0.12 Character Building (with headgear).........................: 01, +15 Charm School............................................ ........: 7, -1 Checklow.......................................... ................: na Christina Rossetti.......................................... .....: x, -1 Coe (at and around 3m4f)....................................: 2, -1 Colonel Sherman........................................... .....: 233, -3 Colour Of Money............................................. ...: 5, -1 Come To Thea.............................................. .......: na Crown Choice............................................ ..........: na Dance The Star.............................................. .....: na Dan Tucker (jumps)................ ................ ...........: 1F, +2.50 Dan Tucker (flat)............................................ ....: na Daraiym (flat)..................................... ...............: 116, +6 Dave's Dream............................................. .......: x, -1 Dazzling Begum (with strong jockey).......................: 2, -1 Deigo Rivera........................................................: na Description (dependant on new mark).....................: 1, +2.13 Don't Stop Me Now.............................................: na Dover's Hill (right-handed and/or over chases)..........: 21, +5 Dreamy Sweeney........................................... ....: na Drew Drop Inn............................................... ....: na Drum Major............................................. ..........: 8, -1 Eastern Aria.............................................. ........: 1, +2.25 El Bravo.............................................................: na Eradicate......................................... ................: 22, -2 Expresso Star.............................................. .....: na Fancy Footsteps......................................... ......: na Fanjura Focail Eile.............................................. ..........: 1, +6 Forget It................................................ ..........: na Garter Knight............................................ ..........: na Gee Dee Nen (jumps)........................................... : 3, -1 Gee Dee Nen (flat)............................................ .: na Ghufa............................................. .................: 3428, -4 Gloucester (jumps)........................................... ...: 1000, -2 Gloucester (flat)............................................ .....: na Gold Again............................................. ..............: na Great Knight............................................ ...........: na Green Velvet............................................ ..........: 311, +7 Harald Bluetooh.......................................... .......: 1, +0.8 Herrera........................................... ..................: 0, -1 High Cross............................................. ...........: 32, -2 Horner Woods............................................. ......: na Hunting Country........................................... .......: na Ibbetson.............................................................: na If You Knew Suzy.............................................. ..: na Ikorodu Road (staying chases in the future).............: na Imaam............................................. ..................: na Imposing I'm Delilah........................................... ..............: 2, -1 Itshim............................................ ..................: 11, +2.5 James Pollard........................................... ...........: na Joe Jo Star (flat)............................................ ...: 2, -1 Joe Jo Star (hurdles)......................................... .: 13, -0.2 (3rd at 20/1) Keep Ringing........................................... ............: na Kefalonia......................................... .................: 5, -1 Key Of Fortune (in classified company)..................: na Khan Tengri (1m4f and over handicaps)..................: na Kidlat (over 1m4+)............................................. : 5, -1 Kings Colour............................................ ..........: 64, -2 Kings Forest............................................ ..........: na Kipchak........................................... ...................: na L'Hirondelle...................................... ..................: 1, +4.5 Lady Amberini.....................................................: na Lady Hestia............................................ ............: na Lamanver Homerun........................................... ..: 5, -1 Laudatory......................................... .................: na Lavender Track............................................. .....: F, -1 Liberally......................................... ......................: na Light From Mars.............................................. ......: na Lucky Dancer............................................ ............: na Madam President......................................... ...........: na Manere Bay............................................... ..........: na Mastery........................................... .................: na Mawatheeq......................................... .................: na Meshtri........................................... ...................: na Mattamia.......................................... ..................: na Middle Of Nowhere........................................... ....: na Miss Keck.............................................. ...............: na Miss Serena............................................ .............: na Moneycantbuymelove................................ .............: na Monitor Closely........................................... ..........: na Moon Crystal (on polytrack)...................................: 12423 (btn sh twice) -0.5 Mr Macattack......................................... ...........: na Mrs Bun (on fibresand)........................................ : 24, -2 Mutamaashi Nabeeda (with headgear or on turf)........................: na Negotiation....................................... ................: 1, +4.5 Never Ending Tale Nightjar (on fibresand)........................................ : 11, +4.5 Nordwind.......................................... ................: 12, +0.10 Noticeable (no headgear, gd ground in sellers)..........: 14, 0.25 Obe Royal (7f).............................................. .....: 12122201, +13.75 Optimus Maximus........................................... ......: 2, -1 Opus Maximus........................................... ..........: 8, -1 Palace Moon.............................................. .........: na Parnassian (especially on fibresand)........................: na Pension Policy (with headgear change)....................: na Petit Robin (left handed).......................................: x, -1 Petrovsky......................................... ................: 11, +1.07 Ping Pong Sivola............................................ .....: F, -1 Planetory Motion............................................ ....: 0, -1 Poker De Sivola............................................ ......: 0, -1 Poquelin.......................................... ..................: 7, -1 Razor Royale............................................ ..........: na Rocky Ryan.............................................. .........: P, -1 Ronaldo Des Mottes............................................ ..: 120, +1 Samons Son............................................... ........: na Scarab............................................ ..................: 5, -1 Set The Trend............................................. ........: 1, 1.63 Seven Is My Number............................................ : xx, -2 Sevenna........................................... ..................: na Shenanigan (with headgear)...................................: na Silk Affair............................................ ...............: 111, +15.65 Sirvino........................................... .....................: na Snow Dancer............................................ ..........: 22, -2 Solas Alainn............................................ .............: na Spring Of Fame.............................................. .....: na St Moritz............................................ ...............: na Stagecoach Jade.............................................. ....:1, +4.5 Star Choice............................................ ............: 4251x2, -2 Street Power............................................. .........: na Super Judge (gd ground or quicker)..........................: na Sweet Lightning......................................... ..........: na Swingkeel......................................... ....................: na Tactful........................................... .....................: na Tartan Gigha............................................. ..........: 2U, -2 Tasheba........................................... ..................: 11, +4.9 Thebes............................................ ...................: 082, -3 The Galloping Shoe.............................................. ...: na The Old Pretender (especially novice chases)..............: na The Package........................................... .............: 03, -2 This Ones For Eddy.............................................. ..: 1, +4 Tiffany Lady (in classified company)..........................: na Top Tribute........................................... ................: na Torphichen........................................ ..................: 6, -1 Towy Valley............................................ .............: 0, -1 Trade Centre (esp over 7f)......................................: na Tuxedo............................................ ...................: na Walkon............................................ ....................: 21, +1 Watson's Bay............................................... .........: 0, -1 Woody's Dream............................................. .......: 5, -1 Yamal............................................. ....................: 2, -1 Yossi............................................. .....................: na Future bets suggested : 166 Winners: 47 2nds: 31 3rds: 21 unplaced: 67 49.55pts PROFIT 28% S/R 31% Yield

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Terrific profit Bill Anyway, great idea with the blog, liking the 'extra' articles too mate. Is there a view counter on those blogs, be interested to know the traffic generated to it from the PL or elsewhere? Also do you use 'Horse Alert' to let you know if one from the list is running, with being such a large list must be easy to miss one or two. Think Kings Forest ran on Friday for example. Summer jumps soon mate, will you be continuing the NH horses? Best of luck anyway, :ok

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...