billy the punter Posted January 13, 2009 Author Share Posted January 13, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 13th January Today's cards looked good to me and I decided to get heavily involved. There was small support for Pick Of The Day in the 1.30 - ran better than formline suggests and could find a race once the Given yard is in better form. Mrs Bun put in another good Southwell performance to win the 4.00. I tipped her on here at 14/1 a few months back - her first Southwell win and she has since won twice there. She usually travels well so is fully effective at both a mile and 7f. They went a fair clip (over 1 sec faster than 3.00) and I think this could be good form - she was still well weighted (61) before today's race. The handicapper may under rate this performance due to the winning margin, hope so. At Great Leighs, Jamie Spencer had a nightmare aboard Desert Strike in the first - the horse looked a handicap cert to me and would've won like one but for pilot error. Likely to be hammered by the handicapper now and likely to be under priced NTO too - chance missed for this horse from a punting point of view, for me anyway. Milne Bay made light work of the 2nd race. But to be fair the race lacked depth, Sendreni doesn't strike me as being well handicapped and Distinctly Game drifted from 9/2 to 7/1 and was therefore a N/R. Basically a walkover - but he did it well. Nobelix and Clear Reef took advantage of the fact that they were the only polytrack horses in the 3.10 - you can ignore plenty of the losers' runs in this race, even the fancied ones, they are all better on fibresand. 3.40 - Pension Policy is a winner waiting to happen as soon as she wants to go and win her races. Perhaps swtich the visor to blinkers may stop her thinking inside the last 50 yards. She has "ducked it" on her last two starts. At Folkstone David Pipe looked to have found a weak race for Ronaldo Des Mottes to open his account in the UK - decent form in France and travelled supremely well in this. Jim Best's Blueberry Ice suffered due to the change in going. As racing goes on, my recent worries about out-of-line drifters could be justified.... Now reads: Winners (39): Backed 22 - 56% Static 15 - 39% Drifted 2 - 5% Losers (58): Backed 14 - 24% Static 23 - 40% Drifted 21 - 36% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 15, 2009 Author Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 14th January I plan to play as many Omaha tournaments as I can this year, there aren't that many throughout the year so didn't want to miss the first one in Brighton yesterday. Shame it clashed with a couple of bets that I really strongly fancied last night. Had a good day but didn't watch the races (forgot to Sky+ them). The jist is though that I believe Scarab and Fancy Footsteps be to well handicapped and on the way up, also King's Colour to a lesser extent who was 3rd earlier in the card. Millwall have to go to Hull instead of Newcastle for the 4th Round - :@. Now reads: Winners (41): Backed 23 - Static 16 - Drifted 2 - Losers (59): Backed 15 - Static 23 - Drifted 21 - Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 15, 2009 Author Share Posted January 15, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 15th January Thought Jordi Roper was well treated after his recent win - went down my the narrowest of margins though in the 1.30 at Southwell. One to keep on side though off similar marks. For the 2nd consecutive race Amber Moon just failed to get up over 7f. Versatile with regards to A/W surfaces it seems but is crying out for further. She is a stone-cold cert in a Classifield stakes race over 1m+. Over at Taunton there was another ex-Mark Johnston winning hurdling debutant for Nicky Henderson. Eradicate and Opius Maximus (yesterday) were both horses I followed (with success) on the flat in 2008 and are really interesting recruits to the NH game. Big Earned Fran for David Pipe in the 2.50 was having his first run back for some time and drifted alarmingly in the market before hand. Travelled very well before blowing up - clearly needed this, definitely has plenty of ability and will have no problem in novice company once this run has blown away the cobwebs. Night Cru looks fairly treated on flat form, was never travelling that well for AP in the 3.20 but he still had a chance before making a hash of the 2nd last, was beaten about 3l by Oldrick in the end (2nd). Think this was a game effort from Night Cru and should find a race off this mark. Now reads: Winners (44): Backed 24 - 55% Static 18 - 41% Drifted 2 - 4% Losers (63): Backed 16 - 25% Static 24 - 38% Drifted 23 - 37% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 17, 2009 Author Share Posted January 17, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Can someone please tell me how an average lightweight jockey is now getting regular rides at all weights for decent stables? The "jockey" in question is Mr Incompetence, Jimmy Quinn. His S/R is terrible. He lacks timing, positional sense, strength and tactical awareness. Apart from that he is fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Strike rate does sometimes give a false impression. Jimmy Quinn has (I believe) for many years been one who has more rides than all jockeys of his merit. Goes anywhere for rides so not being a top jockey that means he has to ride a lot of dross. Dross means a poor strike rate. I don't take as much notice as some punters but to be honest he does not strike me as a poor jockey. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 19, 2009 Author Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Strike rate does sometimes give a false impression. Jimmy Quinn has (I believe) for many years been one who has more rides than all jockeys of his merit. Goes anywhere for rides so not being a top jockey that means he has to ride a lot of dross. Dross means a poor strike rate. I don't take as much notice as some punters but to be honest he does not strike me as a poor jockey. Ginge I ony used the S/R to back up my opinion. His 7% S/R is laughable and much worse than those who get worse rides. I don't know why you think he ridses a lot of "dross". In the past he did but this has changed over the past 2 seasons - this is why I've posted. He gets many mounts for John Dunlop on the turf (rather than just 7st12lb mounts as in the past) and during the A/W season he is one of the busiest around - getting many decent mounts. 187 mounts alread this A/W season, 17 winners. He seems to be first choice for Paul Howling's busy A/W string (despite the fact that Paul Doe looks different class when occasionally riding the same animals) and has had moutns for Simcock, Hannon, Botti and Charlton recently. Perhaps he has a different agent theses days. If so he must be very convincing. Like I say the S/R is secondary anyway, my opinion is really based on what I see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 19, 2009 Author Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 16th,17th,18th January Had just a few bets since Thursday, the racing has been shocking on both codes. Nothing to report. Now reads: Winners (44): Backed 24 - 55% Static 18 - 41% Drifted 2 - 4% Losers (68): Backed 18 - 26% Static 27 - 40% Drifted 23 - 34% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 19, 2009 Author Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Going to attempt to do a constantly-updated list of horses I've mentioned on this thread, on one page. This isn't a basic horses to follow list and most will include further criteria for them to become bets. Will keep a record of their performances since they've been on the list and add/remove further instructions... Character Building with headgear - Nightjar another race in him, possibly on fibresand - Nabeeda well handicapped but possibly needs cheekpieces or turf - Harald Bluetooth could follow up if handicapper isn't too harsh - Compton Falcon not one to follow - Slip due more success over 10f - Sky Quest handicap form (Kemp 3/1/09) poor form - 4 from 4 beaten so far Green Velvet is well handicapped - Jack Rackham LTO run can be ignored - Moon Crystal LTO run can be ignored, wants polytrack - Joe Jo Star could follow up under a penalty over 1m+ - beaten over 10f Focail Eile in Class 5/6 handicaps if not penalised for recent maiden runs - Cape Express still green and should win more races - Shavansky maiden (Lingfield 19/11/08) very good form - since I mentioned this race the 3rd has won, the 4th (Antillia) just finished lame. Cabopino was N/R but looks handicapped to win - Col Sherman could win again if handicapper is lenient - Parnassian is well handicapped, could pop up on fibresand - Drum Major could find a handicap soon - Star Choice could find a handicap soon - Dazzling Begum well handicapped but needs stronger handling - Helping Hand needs an uncontested lead at his own pace - beaten when alongside another front runner since Zuwaar more success looks inevitable - Petrovsky maiden (Kempton 17/12/08) good form - Petrovsky won handicap since Desert Dreamer looks over rated by handicapper - Kabis Amigos could be on the way back - Tinshu may be of interest if handicapper is fair - Key Of Forune showed glimpse of ability could show in lower classes - Tiffany Lady (see above) - Man Of Gwent run of 12/1/09 can be ingored as he wasn't held up - very unlucky on next start (3 days later) when held-up. Rocky Ryan - could follow up if handicapper is sensible Pick Of The Day - ran better than formline suggests, could find a race Mrs Bun - Loves Southwell, possibility of more success if handicapper doesn't go mad Desert Strike - Unlucky in-running LTO but handicapper may still clobber him Sendreni - doesn't look especially well handicapped at present Nobelix/Clear Reed form - form questionable as many rivals can only act on fibresand Pension Policy - keeps throwing races away, perhaps changing the headgear will do the trick Ronaldo Des Mottes/Eradicate/Opius Maximus - all interestign recruits to NH game Blueberry Ice found going too soft LTO - Scarab/Fancy Footsteps and Kings Colour all run well on same night at Kempton and there looks more to come - Amber Moon needs 1m+, looks a cert in Classified company as soon as that happens - Jordi Roper could find another race while fairly weighted - Big Eared Fran didn't the run badly LTO, has ability and is certain to win races soon - Night Cru is well handicapped on flat form and could find a hurdle handicap soon - War And Peace future Class5 h'cap winner if not penalised for recent 2nd - he went up 2lb for it so I've taken him off the list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary any chance of alphabetical order billy :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 19, 2009 Author Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Cronologically not good enough for ya!? :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Cronologically not good enough for ya!? :) easy for you to say, big word for a millwall fan;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 19, 2009 Author Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary God bless Google. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 19, 2009 Author Share Posted January 19, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 19th January I thought Antillia was a handicap good thing in the 4.30 at Wolverhampton but she broke down and was virtually pulled up. Doctor Delta was a lively outsider in the last, I took massive prices and he was backed down to 14/1 - given absolutely no chance due to another incompetent ride from Franny Norton. I book Norton alongside Jimmy Quinn, they are the most talentless experienced jokceys that ride regulary. I would rather Amy Baker claiming 5lb and I 100% mean it. Been on a luckless run last couple of days, hardly had any bets but those I've had have been unlucky...beaten a nose and sh Thursday (Jordi Roper/Amber Moon), a neck Saturday (It's A Man's World) and Antillia was pulled up today like I said - oh well, it'll change tomorrow. Now reads: Winners (44): Backed 24 - 55% Static 18 - 41% Drifted 2 - 4% Losers (70): Backed 20- 26% Static 27 - 40% Drifted 23 - 34% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Norton jocked off Nightjar with Hayley replacing today Billy....that should ease the disappointment of Antillia ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 20, 2009 Author Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 19th January: Nightjar has another race in him, possibly on fibresand ...given absolutely no chance due to another incompetent ride from Franny Norton. I book Norton alongside Jimmy Quinn, they are the most talentless experienced jokceys that ride regulary. I would rather Amy Baker claiming 5lb and I 100% mean it. 20th Jan 2.30 Southwell 1st Nightjar - 8st4lb - M Johnston - Hayler Turner (jockey change from F Norton) - 7/2 Proof that Mark Johnston reads ATR! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 'muscle strain', yeah right! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 20, 2009 Author Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 'muscle strain'' date=' yeah right![/quote'] I had him nobbled! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 20, 2009 Author Share Posted January 20, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary List now in alphabetical order - it is easier I agree! Will constantly edit and/or update with results and additions. Amber Moon needs 1m+, looks a cert in Classified company as soon as that happens - Big Eared Fran needed the run badly LTO, has ability and is certain to win races soon - Blueberry Ice found going too soft LTO - Cape Express still green and should win more races - Cabopino was N/R but looks handicapped to win - UPL NTO :@ Character Building with headgear - Clear Reef - 15/1form questionable as many rivals could only act on fibresand - UPL fav NTO :ok Colonel Sherman could win again if handicapper is lenient - btn nk NTO Compton Falcon not one to follow - Dazzling Begum well handicapped but needs stronger handling - Desert Dreamer looks over rated by handicapper - btn FAV NTO :ok Desert Strike - unlucky in-running LTO but handicapper may still clobber him Drum Major could find a handicap soon - Fancy Footsteps - will win more races Focail Eile in Class 5/6 handicaps if not penalised for recent maiden runs- won maiden NTO 6/1 :ok Green Velvet is well handicapped - Harald Bluetooth could follow up if handicapper isn't too harsh - won NTO :ok Helping Hand needs an uncontested lead at his own pace - UPL when taken on for lead NTO :ok Jack Rackham LTO run can be ignored - Joe Jo Star could follow up under a penalty over 1m+ - beaten over 10f NTO :@ Jordi Roper could find another race while fairly weighted - btn in photo NTO :@ Key Of Forune showed glimpse of ability could show in lower classes - King Of Colour should find another race soon Moon Crystal LTO run can be ignored, wants polytrack - Man Of Gwent run of 12/1/09 can be ingored as he wasn't held up - very unlucky NTO (3 days later) when held-up. :@ Mrs Bun - Loves Southwell, possibility of more success if handicapper doesn't go mad Nabeeda well handicapped but possibly needs cheekpieces or turf - Night Cru is well handicapped on flat form and could find a hurdle handicap soon - Nightjar another race in him, possibly on fibresand - Won NTO 7/2 :ok Nobelix - 15/1form questionable as many rivals could only act on fibresand Parnassian is well handicapped, could pop up on fibresand - Pension Policy - keeps throwing races away, perhaps changing the headgear will do the trick Petrovsky maiden (17/12) good form - Petrovsky won handicap NTO :ok Pick Of The Day - ran better than formline suggests, could find a race Rocky Ryan - could follow up if handicapper is sensible Ronaldo Des Mottes/Eradicate/Opius Maximus - all interestign recruits to NH game Scarab there looks more to come - Sendreni - doesn't look especially well handicapped at present Sky Quest handicap form (3/1/09) poor form - 4 from 4 beaten NTO :ok:ok:ok:ok Shavansky maiden (Lingfield 19/11/08) very good form - 3rd won NTO, the 4th (Antillia) finished lame NTO. :ok:@ Star Choice could find a handicap soon - Tiffany Lady (see Key of Fortune) Tinshu may be of interest if handicapper is fair - Zuwaar more success looks inevitable - beaten NTO :@ Taken off list War And Peace (due to handicap rise) Slip due more success over 10f - beaten NTO :@ Kabis Amigos could be on the way back - btn NTO :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 25, 2009 Author Share Posted January 25, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Been a bit busy this week so going to get this up to date with some brief thoughts. 20th January Nightjar did indeed prove to have another race in him at least and he again showed his liking for fibresand. Jordi Roper wants further than the 6f he was 2nd over and should find another race soon. 21st January Pearl Of Manacor looked to have a chance in an A/W maiden having previously contesting in decent Newbury maidens. He sluiced up in this and could be interesting in dirt handicaps now. As expected Harald Bluetooth has improved since leaving the useless James Fanshawe - won with a bit in hand again. L'Hirondelle was 3rd and ran a fine race, looking the likely winner 1 out. He and his jock did everythnig right and look a future handicap winner against lesser opposition. 22nd January Although a seemingly well beaten 5th in the 3.30 Wolverhampton, Daraiym would've been closer had he not been forced to go after the runaway leader a little too soon. 23rd January Liam Jones' choice to challenge up the inner in the claimer at Lingfield cost Excusez Moi his chance. Why do jockeys continually make this mistake? Kidlat (6th in the 3.25) could be interesting when tried over 1m4f+. 24th January Great NH cards today, the season really starts to kick in now IMO. Walkon was my idea of the Triumph winner before today and he took this trial in his stride - Alan King winning this for the 3rd year running, his previous two winners went on to win and be 2nd in the TH later. Walkon has been beaten but I've always though this was a plus when looking for a Triumph horse, not many take the race when unbeaten. The hustle and bustle of the TH isn't for bridle horses and I do believe you need to have been in a fight previous in order to figure. The defeat earlier is a plus in an odd way. Has Punchestowns' bubble burst? Not really, he ran well in defeat - I personally wasn't surprised, I thought he was ridiculously short for the World Hurdle prior to the race. It's good news for me as I've put up Kasbah Bliss at 3/1 (late last year). I've always been confident about this bet and I'm kicking myself for not going in again when he drifted to 7/2 after Punchestowns' recent wins. Big Bucks enters the fray but not sure if he is a stayer's winner. Big Fella Thanks was impressive over at Donny, which wasn't the biggest surprise. Connections wasted no time in putting this horse over the big obstacles, they obviously thought this horse could be special. I'm a fan of backing novices in the big handicap chases and it's something that is occasionally overlooked. At Lingfield Disctincly Game won after being really well backed (8s down to 6s) - big improvement on his last run where he drifted from 9/2 to 7/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 30, 2009 Author Share Posted January 30, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 25th January Sublimity disappointed in the Irish Champion, it was reported he scoped badly after the race. Is there enough time for him to get over that before Cheltenham? Unlikely I'd say, so if you've backed Binnocular, form an orderly queue... On the A/W thought Changing The Guard ran well on his handicap debut, he'll win NTO probably. 26th January Had a day off. Had a shocking tooth-ache lately and went to the dentist. Have a massive abcess, they gave me antibiotics and once it's cleared I need a root-canal. Cosmic. Definitely a losing day. 27th January Sickening day for me. Backed Rawdon and Mrs Bun, they traded at 1/12 and 1/11 in-running but neither won! :@ Not sure why Jamie Spencer was given the ride on Mrs Bun for the first time, thought he made an error bringing her over to eye-ball the game Mcconnell. Jordi Roper again found 6f too sharp, step him up to 7f PLEASE! 28th January Wrote this about L'Hirondelle after his last run: 21st January As expected Harald Bluetooth has improved since leaving the useless James Fanshawe - won with a bit in hand again. L'Hirondelle was 3rd and ran a fine race, looking the likely winner 1 out. He and his jock did everythnig right and look a future handicap winner against lesser opposition. Down to Class 4 and off the same mark it really was maximum stakes time for me, especially with my fav jock Paul Doe booked. I couldn't see this getting beat and had my biggest bet for some time - ran out a very easy winner, perhaps too easy, the handicapper may clobber him. My own White Moss ran at Kempton and I went to see her run. I despise Kempton. The surrounding area is depressing, the course is like a ghost town - even during a meeting. Anyway, White Moss looked all wrong at the halfway stage and we feared something was amiss. When she got back to the unsaddling enclosure she was bleeding from her nose. She faces 4 weeks off or so. Currently have 4 (from 5) off the course now. That's racing though. 29th January A decent days racing I thought. At Wincanton AP got his 3000 winner on Stradbrook, carrying the horse over the line almost. I saved on him but backed Tender Falcom at a big price - was certain he'd got up. At Towcester, Silk Affair won in a canter, I thought the two horses that won his previous two races were potentially decent (Ronaldo Des Mottes/Starluck) - still do. Thought a few winners were backable at Southwell but nothing to report with regards to the future. At Wolverhampton the 7.20 was an odd betting heat. I thought Gwilym was a decent E/W bet after having looked unlucky on previous outings. I backed him win and place at around 11/1. On the boards he went 12/1, 10/1, 12/1, 14/1, 16/1 - very odd, I nearly went in again just before the off at 17 on betfair but decided against it. A winner, but I cost myself a lot of dough on the bet. That always annoys punters - are we too greedy? There were a few runners that were well backed and then drifted in the race, very strange betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Nice thread Billy once it's cleared I need a root-canal. Definitely -EV :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 30th Januray Mentioned earlier in the thread that Green Velvet was well handicapped, she was backed off the board in a poor race. Ran well but could only finish 3rd, may give her another chance. Thought Snow Dancer won well at Wolverhampton, despite keeping to the inner throughout. Took big prices about Perfect Act in the last, backed down to about 4/1 - saddle slipped very early. 31st January Didn't see a great deal of racing due to going to Millwall. Kenny Jackett, ingeniusly changed a winning side (due to the puzzling inclusion/signing of Adam Bolder - bowles any opinion?). 1-0 up, lost 2-1 after a late breakaway goal, smash and grab but I was glad, serves the manager right. Anyway back to the horses, said above that Night Cru is well handicapped over hurdles - he ran a cracker at a big price in the Grade 3. At Lingfield, Annabelles Charm was a total disgrace. Anyone who believes that all horses run to their chance/merit despite drifting should really study this. I made this a massive bet on the book, I read on here that Fin was hoping for 7/4 as he also fancied it, I was thinking the same. I took 2.95 for small before I went to bed around 3am. He was 11/4 by midday, and on the show went 9/4 to 7/2 - anyone who follows A/W racing knows this horse was NOT a 7/2 chance. The RP says "she was given a fair bit to do", the formline says: "Held up in last, progress into 7th when hanging and ran into wall of trouble 2f out, pushed along and modest progress 1f out, eased final 50yds" :lol Well done Jamie - mission accomplished. ;) Thankfully due to the alarming drift, I only had a fraction of what I originally intended on. Saved myself a few quid. 1st Feb Snow, snow, snow. Racing was shit. 2nd Feb Boring. Watched Murder She Wrote and played online poker. F*ck me, that Jessica Fletcher is one nosey old cow. 3rd Feb Thought the first two favs in the am riders races were good things. Dontpaytheferryman travelled well (1/9 in-running) but unfortunately his rider suddenly thought he was Lester Piggott and that his ride was Nijinsky - he decided to keep him on the bridle (on fibresand!!!) and let his rivals gain momentum. In the end it looked like he was beaten fair and square, but it was a poor ride. But what do you expect? No such problems with the 2nd bet, World Of Choice bolted up. Was slung in on his maiden for for Godolphin and with the extra yardage and blinkers first time, it really did look like this was the day for this one. Didn't see anymore racing as I went to the dentist. Decided against the root canal and had the thing out (molar). Due to the infection/abcess the anesthetic would not work properly - so it killed despite having 4 injections. Still, it's out now. Then I had to go and pay for it?! :@ More online poker after. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary I went to the dentist. Decided against the root canal and had the thing out (molar). Due to the infection/abcess the anesthetic would not work properly - so it killed despite having 4 injections. Still' date=' it's out now. [b']Then I had to go and pay for it?! :@ More online poker after. That's what the Betfair pro's are there for :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 30th Januray At Lingfield, Annabelles Charm was a total disgrace. Anyone who believes that all horses run to their chance/merit despite drifting should really study this. I made this a massive bet on the book, I read on here that Fin was hoping for 7/4 as he also fancied it, I was thinking the same. I took 2.95 for small before I went to bed around 3am. He was 11/4 by midday, and on the show went 9/4 to 7/2 - anyone who follows A/W racing knows this horse was NOT a 7/2 chance. The RP says "she was given a fair bit to do", the formline says: "Held up in last, progress into 7th when hanging and ran into wall of trouble 2f out, pushed along and modest progress 1f out, eased final 50yds" :lol Well done Jamie - mission accomplished. ;) Thankfully due to the alarming drift, I only had a fraction of what I originally intended on. Saved myself a few quid. I missed the Annabelle's Charm race as I was in the Sports Bar in Edinburgh for the PL meet up. We were all watching the scores come in but I wish SSN would show racing results too. I was nearly sick when my mate text me to say Folio had won (never backed it despite putting it in the FTTS thread). No way on earth was it a 14/1 shot, but at the same time, no way was Annabelle a 7/2 shot like you say. I was expecting having to take 6/4 ish or maybe evens SP, and did a yankee with a few others to SP as didn't have time to take prices. I've not watched the race yet but will watch it on the ATR archive next time it runs. Hope Petrovsky goes in for you tonight if you are on again......:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary That's what the Betfair pro's are there for :dude :lol God bless 'em! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary I missed the Annabelle's Charm race as I was in the Sports Bar in Edinburgh for the PL meet up. We were all watching the scores come in but I wish SSN would show racing results too. I was nearly sick when my mate text me to say Folio had won (never backed it despite putting it in the FTTS thread). No way on earth was it a 14/1 shot' date=' but at the same time, no way was Annabelle a 7/2 shot like you say. I was expecting having to take 6/4 ish or maybe evens SP, and did a yankee with a few others to SP as didn't have time to take prices. I've not watched the race yet but will watch it on the ATR archive next time it runs. Hope Petrovsky goes in for you tonight if you are on again......:hope[/quote'] Shocking ride fin, you'll know what I mean when you see it. Swerved tonight - waiting excitedly for Southwell tomorrow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary Updated the current list Amber Moon needs 1m+, looks a cert in Classified company as soon as that happens - Annabelle's Charm - well handicapped, totally ignore LTO Big Eared Fran needed the run badly LTO, has ability and is certain to win races soon - Blueberry Ice found going too soft LTO - Cape Express still green and should win more races - Cabopino was N/R but looks handicapped to win - UPL twice since, but wins shortly Character Building with headgear - Clear Reef - 15/1form questionable as many rivals could only act on fibresand - UPL fav NTO :ok Colonel Sherman could win again if handicapper is lenient - btn nk NTO Compton Falcon not one to follow - Dazzling Begum well handicapped but needs stronger handling - Desert Dreamer looks over rated by handicapper - btn FAV NTO :ok Desert Strike - unlucky in-running LTO but handicapper may still clobber him Drum Major could find a handicap soon - UPL NTO Fancy Footsteps - will win more races Focail Eile in Class 5/6 handicaps if not penalised for recent maiden runs- won maiden NTO 6/1 :ok Green Velvet is well handicapped - placed NTO :ok Harald Bluetooth could follow up if handicapper isn't too harsh - won NTO :ok Helping Hand needs an uncontested lead at his own pace - UPL when taken on for lead NTO :ok Jack Rackham LTO run can be ignored - Joe Jo Star could follow up under a penalty over 1m+ - beaten over 10f NTO :@ Jordi Roper could find another race while fairly weighted - btn in photo NTO :@ (amended) wants 7f+ Key Of Forune showed glimpse of ability could show in lower classes - Kidlat - well handicapped, possibly over 1m4f+ - btn SH NTO 13/2 :ok King Of Colour should find another race soon - btn NTO (drifted in market) L'Hirondelle - certain future winner against lesser oppostion - WON NTO 9/2 :ok Moon Crystal LTO run can be ignored, wants polytrack - Mrs Bun - Loves Southwell, possibility of more success if handicapper doesn't go mad - btn photo NTO Nabeeda well handicapped but possibly needs cheekpieces or turf - Night Cru is well handicapped on flat form and could find a hurdle handicap soon - placed in Grade 3 hurdle NTO 14/1 :ok Nightjar another race in him, possibly on fibresand - Won NTO 7/2 :ok Nobelix - 15/1form questionable as many rivals could only act on fibresand Parnassian is well handicapped, could pop up on fibresand - Pearl Of Manacor - could be interesting in handicaps Perfect Act - ignore LTO, saddle slipped Pension Policy - keeps throwing races away, perhaps changing the headgear will do the trick Petrovsky maiden (17/12) good form - Petrovsky won two handicaps since :ok two others gone close in maidens Pick Of The Day - ran better than formline suggests, could find a race Rocky Ryan - could follow up if handicapper is sensible Ronaldo Des Mottes/Eradicate/Opius Maximus - all interestign recruits to NH game Scarab there looks more to come - Sendreni - doesn't look especially well handicapped at present Shavansky maiden (Lingfield 19/11/08) very good form - 3rd won NTO, the 4th (Antillia) finished lame NTO. :ok:@ Snow Dancer - won with bit in hand LTO Star Choice could find a handicap soon - UPL NTO Tiffany Lady (see Key of Fortune) Tinshu may be of interest if handicapper is fair - Zuwaar more success looks inevitable - beaten NTO :@ Taken Off List Sky Quest handicap form (3/1/09) poor form - 4 from 4 beaten NTO :ok:ok:ok:ok First four to run were all beaten, one of those has won since though - it's been over a month since this run now so taking it off. Man Of Gwent run of 12/1/09 can be ingored as he wasn't held up - very unlucky NTO (3 days later) when held-up. :@ He is just too unreliable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted February 11, 2009 Author Share Posted February 11, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 4th Feb Kidlat was sickening caught at Lingfield - matter of time before this wins a handicap. 5th Feb Multiple non-runners at Southwell, ruined the day's racing. Merrion Tiger looked a good bet to follow up in a race that had no depth due to the NR's. Amber Moon looked to have a chance over the mile she'd been crying out for. She was a big drifter all day but run her race to be fair, she looked the winner for a long way but she was definitely keeping something to herself, she remains on the list but I'll be careful with her. 6th Feb Some punters know more about horses than some of there trainers - Boss Hog had been crying out for 7f on fibresand, I've no idea that he had not been tried over C&D until now. Finally he was today - he wins for the first time. Easy innit. Admiral Bond was kept to 5f at Wolverhampton which looked strange considering he was badly outpaced over five at Lingfield LTO. The 5f at Wolverhampton though isn't as sharp so I took a chance and backed him - mistake, he needs 6f. 7th Feb Possibly the worst Satuday racing I can remember. All eyes were on Denman - he put in a laboured performance even taking into account he didn't like Kempton. I couldn't back him with snide money at Cheltenham. 8th Feb Sunday's racing was worse than Saturday's. I spent the day looking for ante-post value. Concentrated on the Blue Sq Gold Cup at Haydock (14th Feb). Coe looked the ideal horse for this race but connections were worried he'd be out the handicap and had quoted he may not run if this was the case, probably why he was as big as 14/1. The top two weights however were Joe Lively (injured 7th Feb) and MDB (going to Cheltenham) so the weights were set to rise by at least 11lb, leaving Cos comfortably in at the weights. So, I decided to back/tip him at 14/1. (short as 6s and big as 15/2 at time of writing). :hope 9th Feb Again poor racing. Moon Crystal finally come good at Kempton as I expected her to (see list). AP got his 3000. Rode a blinder on Best's Hello Moscow - no other jock would've won on him. Was unlucky on the last hurdle faller but was lucky to win the race which made him 3000 n.o. Timmy Murphy was very easy on the 2nd for David Johnson, a disgrace really - old pals act. The meeting at Plumpton should not have gone ahead, conditions were terrible, had AP not gone there it would've been cancelled. 10th Feb The world's most under rated jokcey; Paul Doe, rode another cracker to get up on Obe Royal who looked to be crying out for a return to 7f. The 1-2-3 in the last at Southwell I like - Middle Of Nowhere, Dazzling Begum and Ghufa. Will monitor their entries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted February 12, 2009 Author Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 11th Feb Again disappointing cards. Despite stepping up to 1m4f and lining up alongside another trailblazer I though Colonel Sherman cold find one more race. It was a step too far however, he paid for having to go too fast early on - as feared it set the race up for the hold up specialist Dishdasha. 12th Feb I decided to back Jordi Roper again as he was stepped upto a mile - although I believe 7f will be his best trip. I haven't watched the race yet but it seems on the analysis that they might've gone too quickly. It's not wise to follow many Class 6 horses, or horses trained by Stewart Parr - I may scrub this one off my list soon. The claimer at Kempton looked match between Blue Tomato and Epic Odyssey - however on closer inspection I thought the latter had a much better chance at the weights. Although on official figures Blue Tomato was a 1lb well in I actually think his rating of 83 is misleading for him - when it's been a while since a horse has run in a handicap so this sort of thing happens quite a bit. Epic Odyssey on the other hand has recent form in handicaps of his mark and on receent form he looked the likely winner. Benhego travelled impressively on his debut for Gary Moore and won well. He was previously with Stuart Williams who landed a gamble earlier in the day. His Itshim won well but had previously been 17th of 17, 10th of 10, 11th of 11 and 5th of 6 beaten a total of 118 lengths - he has to get a tug for this. Back at Southwell I thought Flores Sea was a joke price for the 4.10 - I thought the race would go to either Mrs Bun who loves the surface or recent seller winner Obe Royal. C&D is key to Obe Royal and he got up following another great Paul Doe ride. I wouldn't write Mrs Bun off, she travels well when given daylight but for some reason Winston decided to cover her up, I really don't think this suited her. At Nad Al Sheba, Yamal looked decent, been a fan of this horse for a year now - interesting that he went to Godolphin rather than any of their UAE trainers - they must be thinking Europe with this horse this season. In the 3.15 my horse Royal Power ran - it was his 3rd run in Dubai this season and his best effort to date, he was stopped for a run on the turn and as a result lost a length or two. He picked up well though, running on to finish 4th, was on E/W at 25/1. Bah! Very encouraging run though, nice bit of prize money and bodes well for the future, he is a very decent horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted February 12, 2009 Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: billy the punter's 2009 Diary 11th Feb Again disappointing cards. Despite stepping up to 1m4f and lining up alongside another trailblazer I though Colonel Sherman cold find one more race. It was a step too far however, he paid for having to go too fast early on - as feared it set the race up for the hold up specialist Dishdasha. 12th Feb I decided to back Jordi Roper again as he was stepped upto a mile - although I believe 7f will be his best trip. I haven't watched the race yet but it seems on the analysis that they might've gone too quickly. It's not wise to follow many Class 6 horses, or horses trained by Stewart Parr - I may scrub this one off my list soon. The claimer at Kempton looked match between Blue Tomato and Epic Odyssey - however on closer inspection I thought the latter had a much better chance at the weights. Although on official figures Blue Tomato was a 1lb well in I actually think his rating of 83 is misleading for him - when it's been a while since a horse has run in a handicap so this sort of thing happens quite a bit. Epic Odyssey on the other hand has recent form in handicaps of his mark and on receent form he looked the likely winner. Benhego travelled impressively on his debut for Gary Moore and won well. He was previously with Stuart Williams who landed a gamble earlier in the day. His Itshim won well but had previously been 17th of 17, 10th of 10, 11th of 11 and 5th of 6 beaten a total of 118 lengths - he has to get a tug for this. Back at Southwell I thought Flores Sea was a joke price for the 4.10 - I thought the race would go to either Mrs Bun who loves the surface or recent seller winner Obe Royal. C&D is key to Obe Royal and he got up following another great Paul Doe ride. I wouldn't write Mrs Bun off, she travels well when given daylight but for some reason Winston decided to cover her up, I really don't think this suited her. At Nad Al Sheba, Yamal looked decent, been a fan of this horse for a year now - interesting that he went to Godolphin rather than any of their UAE trainers - they must be thinking Europe with this horse this season. In the 3.15 my horse Royal Power ran - it was his 3rd run in Dubai this season and his best effort to date, he was stopped for a run on the turn and as a result lost a length or two. He picked up well though, running on to finish 4th, was on E/W at 25/1. Bah! Very encouraging run though, nice bit of prize money and bodes well for the future, he is a very decent horse. Good thread this mate, and pardon the intrusion. Just picking up on the Itshim reference, I didnt realise the form had been that poor, and he landed a bit of a gamble today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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