New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 York: Hillview Boy 2pts win 10/1 & War Party 2pts win 12/1 Both Ladbrokes Its probably going against wisdom to bet in a amateur ladies race, but looking down the form there looks a couple worth an interest here. Hillview Boy is lightly raced and every chance can improve on his second last time out at Ayr. Ran in the bumper at Aintree and the extra two furlongs here should help. War Party had some useful form in France on softer ground and ran well last time out at Epsom, not beaten far in a class two race. Hopefully some of the family genes will help in the saddle too, with Ruby's sister doing the steering. 2:20 Sandown: Kyllachy Star 4pts win 4/1 BlueSquare Arrives here in cracking form after a win at York. Up 4lbs for that win but Richard Fahey is going well and this stiff finish up the Sandown hill should be in Kyllachy Star's favour. 3:10 York: Master of Disguise 5pts win 7/2 Bet365(Bog) & Sloop Johnb 2pts win 8/1 William Hill Master of Disguise was impressive at Sandown last time and looks hard to get away from here. The win was in a fast time and the from is standing up, with three subsequent winners coming out of that race. Trainer Clive Cox is going great guns and there may be more improvement to come over this extra furlong. Sloop Johnb creeps in at the bottom of the weights and is on a hat trick. Keeping on well to win over five furlongs here in the middle of May he is up in class and distance, but looks up to that. Pulled out of a race against older horses yesterday to run in this today. 3:25 Sandown: Jargelle 2pts e/w 18/1 Coral Jargelle may just pull off a surprise here. Ran well last year, but no real show out in Dubai. Back in the UK and with a new trainer in Kevin Ryan he would not need to improve much to figure here. 3:45 York: Antinori 2pts e/w 16/1 Bet365 (Bog) & Distant Memories 1pt e/w 8/1 Ladbrokes The switch to making the running paid dividends at Sandown and looks overpriced here on that success. Looking at the form, he kept finding extra, and if driven to the front today, may be hard to pull back up the long York straight. Distant Memories, has the feel of a horse that could be much better than already shown. Lightly raced and every chance of improvement. I'm not convinced he must have very soft ground to produce the goods and don't want to miss out if today is the day.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Royal Ascot: Gladiatorus 4pts win 5/2 Ladbrokes Can't argue with the form in Nad Al Sheba. He comfortably beat both Alexandros and Paco. And the form was franked when Presvis went on to win in Hong Kong. The wins came in good times and Saeed Bin Suroor has an excellent record in this race. 3:45 Royal Ascot: Delegator 2pts e/w 9/2 Paddy Power (Bog) The second to Sea The Stars looks even better now, and although rather got stuck in the mud at The Curragh - every chance that he can reverse that form here. Jimmy Fortune takes over in the saddle. 4:20 Royal Ascot: No Hubris 2pts e/w 11/2 William Hill (Bog) No Hubris ran well at York, and the horses he beat, Flying Statesman for one, who reopposes here, have gone on to win giving the form a very solid look to it. Paul Cole knows what it takes to win this race. 4:55 Royal Ascot: Woolfall Treasure 2pts e/w 12/1 Stan James These type of races often go to a duel purpose horse and a trainer who does well under both codes. Gary Moore fits the bill perfectly and son Ryan is in the plate. Won well at Salsbury and even has a low draw that can be significant in these long distance races. Only a four year old - so could be more improvement to come.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 Royal Ascot: Twice Over 2pts e/w 9/1 VC Bet Ran probably his best race of the season here last year and was also went well in the Lockinge with first day winner Paco Boy behind. He had to make the running that day on softish ground. Put up a cracking time last year only losing out to Henrythenavigator deep inside the final furlong. Trainer Henry Cecil is in fine form. 4:20 Royal Ascot: Roaring Forte 2pts e/w 17/2 William Hill (Bog) Was a comfortable winner last time out and is only up 6lb for that. William Haggas seems to do well in these big handicaps and Roaring Forte looks likely to go very close. Has won over a mile as well as seven furlongs last time. 4:55 Royal Ascot: Capercaillie 2pts e/w 13/2 Bet365 Bog Capercaillie has won both her outings at Musselburgh. The form has been franked and Mark Johnson does well here and has a twenty percent strike rate in the past two weeks. Frankie Dettori takes the ride and while there are a whole host of improvers / dangers in opposition I am happy to side with this northern raider. 5:30 Royal Ascot: Say No Now 2pts e/w 10/1 Bet365 (Bog) Ran well at Goodwood behind Moneycantbuymelove but may improve again dropped back in trip here. Looking through her form she ran well in the same race as the 1000 Guineas winner at Kempton, and with her trainer having his small string in good form 10/1 looks a fair price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Royal Ascot: Monsieur Chevalier 5pts win 13/8 VC Bet Its dangerous to go against the American raider as the combination are already two out of two. But Monsieur Chevalier has been really impressive and looks hard to beat here. His wins have been backed up by good times. Richard Hannon is in cracking form. 3:05 Royal Ascot: Take The Hint 5pts win 3/1 Ladbrokes Take The Hint looks to follow up last year's success in this race for John Gosden. She won the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket and Moneycantbuymelove who was over six lengths back in third that day won here on Wednesday. Leocorno hacked up in a handicap and looks sure to go well, but this is a big step up. 3:45 Royal Ascot: Eastern Anthem 1pt e/w 25/1 Bet365 (Bog) Maybe I want my head tested with this one - and will probably know my fate in the first furlong!!!! But Eastern Anthem does have some very good form over a mile and a half. Had Spanish Moon and Youmazain behind at Nad Al Sheba. If he gets the trip could just be interesting. 4:20 Royal Ascot: Deadly Secret 2pts e/w 33/1 Brief Encounter 2pts e/w 8/1 Both Ladbrokes Deadly Secret ran well at Doncaster earlier this month and drawn high and capable of putting up a fast time. Richard Fahey is red hot at the moment and with a draw close to the rail Deadly Secret looks overpriced at 33/1. Brief Encounter is drawn low and produced and came with a strong late run to win at York. After that race Andrew Balding thought Brief Encounter was best fresh and decide to keep him for this. William Buick is an excellent pilot. 5:30 Royal Ascot: Lasso The Moon 2pts e/w 20/1 Bet365 (Bog) I have picked Lasso The Moon before as I feel there is a good race in him somewhere. Form is quite respectable and I think his lady jockey gets on with him well. This step up to a mile and a half may just do the trick.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Royal Ascot: She's A Character 2pts e/w 20/1 V C Bet If Aegean can produce the same level of form on turf, then this looks all over, but She's A Character put up an excellent performance to win at Doncaster. The stable could not be in better form and a nice low draw makes the 20/1 a decent each way bet. 3:05 Royal Ascot: South Easter 2pts e/w 11/2 Bet 365 (Bog) Only two runs under his belt but has been supplemented for this. Won the Dee Stakes at Chester and looks as though will improve for this extra two furlongs. William Haggas is in fine form. 3:45 Royal Ascot: Baliyana 2pts e/w 11/1 Betfred If John Oxx supplements a horse then that must be worth a close inspection. He is about the shrewdest man around and if he is prepared to take on the English Irish & French 2000 Guineas winners then Baliyana must be worth an each way bet, especially at 11/1. Michael Kinane in the saddle. 4:20 Royal Ascot: Dream Lodge 3pts win 8/1 Ladbrokes and Stone of Scone 3pts win 5/1 Bet365 (Bog) Dream Lodge comes from the red hot Richard Fahey stable and produced a fine effort to win at Redcar on his first outing for his new handler. That time looks decent and while he has to contend with some very lightly raced sorts here I expect him to go well. Stone of Scone is very lightly raced and surely open to more improvement. Ed Dunlop has had some runners who have gone close in this in the past. 5:30 Royal Ascot: Golden Desert 3pts e/w 25/1 Bet365 (Bog) Seems to go really well here in big field handicaps. Has a win and a very useful effort last September. Terry Mills' horses are running to form. Ran with credit in a pipe opener at Newmarket just under a month ago.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Royal Ascot: Shakespearean 2pts win 8/1 William Hill & Meglio Ancora 2pts win 18/1 Sportingbet I am going for two lightly raced horses here. Mark Johnson has an excellent record in this race and his runner got going late at Haydock. But once the penny dropped ran on well. Meglio Ancora also ran with promise on his debut at Newbury and every chance he will improve over this extra furlong. 3:05 Royal Ascot: Tajaaweed 2pts win 14/1 Ladbrokes Very lightly raced over the years but is capable of winning this if everything fell right. Seen as the second string but I never like to underestimate anything Sir Michael Stoute runs. 3:45 Royal Ascot: Kings Apostle 2pts win 9/1 Ladbrokes, Lesson in Humility 2pts win 25/1 Bet 365 & Strike the Deal 1pt win 40/1 Paddy Power Going for a scattergun approach here. Kings Apostle ran well last time and likes the course and going. And William Haggis in fine form. Lesson In Humility completed a double at Leopardstown and put up a fast time. While Strike the Deal's win was on the all weather, it was also in a fast time and big priced outsiders have won this in the recent past. 4:20 Royal Ascot: Jimmy Styles 2pts win 6/1 William Hill, Striking Spirit 2pts win 33/1 Blue Square, Exclaimation 2pts win 25/1 William Hill & Kaldoun Kingdom 1pts win 28/1 Ladbrokes Jimmy Stiles is the favourite and probably justifyably with an impressive win at Newmarket. Has a plum rails draw and is trained by Clive Cox who is red hot at the moment. Striking Spirit has not done anything to write home about last two outings but first run of season puts him in with a shout and Dandy Nicholls the master trainer of sprinters will have his runner primed for this. Exclaimation ran well in a listed race last time and with a high draw will be near the pace. Finally, Kaldoun Kingdom, creeps in here of bottom weight is draw higest of all and with Richard Fahey in such cracking form worth a small investment. 5:00 Royal Ascot: Record Breaker 2pts win 16/1 William Hill, Martyr 2pts win 22/1 Stanjames Recordbreaker hails from the Mark Johnson stable and was a fine winner at Hailton last time out. That run may have been underestimated and the 16/1 looks fair. Martyr ran well at Epsom last time and creeps in the bottom of the weights here with 8st 11lb. A winner at this distance, looks to be another thats overpriced.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:40 Pontefract: Silly Gilly 1pt win 6/1 Sportingbet Was a good winner on her last but one start and this extra furlong may sap her stamia a bit but gets on well with this apprentice. 3:10 Pontefract: Fastnet Storm 1pt win 5/1 Skybet & Templetuohy Max 2pts win 12/1 William Hill Fastnet Storm creeps in at the bottom of the weights here and may well set off to make all and be hard to catch. Templetuohy Max, has been putting in some solid performances of late and 12/1 looks a sporting bet. 3:40 Pontefract: Sugar Ray 1pt win Ladbrokes Was running at Royal Ascot last year - but if near his best should be able to compete here on his return to UK. 4:10 Pontefract: Markington 1pt win 9/2 Bet365 Out of the handicap but with William Carson taking five pounds off could still go very close. 5:10 Pontefract: Raymond Ridge 1pt win 7/1 William Hill & Khestianto 1pt win 8/1 Bet365 Most of Raymond Ridges best form is on the a/w but has shown enough on turf to be in the mix here. Khestianto has been making the frame and has been running quite well useful claimer takes off seven pounds. Not much time today!!

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Newcastle: The Betchworth Kid 2pts win 10/1 & Tilt 2pts win 20/1 Both William Hill The Batchworth Kid has a good draw, goes well on this rain softened ground and Michael Bell won this a couple of years ago. Tilt is on a long losing run but ran well last time out. Trainer Brian Ellison also knows all about this race, and Tilt is another who likes the soft.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 2:35 Newcastle: Inter Vision 2pts win 16/1 Paddy Power (Bog) & 3pts win Lucky Leigh 40/1 Stan James (Bog) Going for a couple of outsiders here who have both shown flashes of form on the soft. Inter Vision is dropping down to a handy mark and has won over course and distance. Lucky Leigh is taking a fair drop in class and Mick Channon does well here. 2:20 Newmarket: Kurtanella 2pts win 12/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Her form reads more like a jumper with an unseated rider, but that was in a Group 3 at Ascot. Obviously well thought of by her trainer to be entered there. Form equally as good as two or three of her shorter priced rivals today. 3:35 Windsor: Tamagin 1pt win 9/1 Bet 365 (bog) & Mac Gillie Eoin 1pt win 8/1 Ladbrokes Two sprinters who are in decent form, go on the ground and are reasonably weighted on their best form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Six months in and its time for a thorough examination of the record. The stats are: Points: Total staked 657.00 Returned 462.35 Loss 194.65 ROI -29.63% Bets: Struck 195 Profitable 45 Strike rate 23% I thought of giving up, but that's very defeatist. I need to look at what's going wrong.... The first is bleeding obvious - I'm not picking enough winners. 16 winners out of 195 bets is bad - there are no two ways about it. Second is the staking - that's been erratic and two problems there. When I switched to more each way bets - not enough made the frame. The second problem is, I've continued to stake more on the higher priced horses than the shorter ones. And to try and turn things around....... I'm going to make more use of Patternform which I've recently discovered. I should be able to home in on the horses that are likely to perform best at the distance and going. And also to make use of the excellent trend threads on here. Even on the odd occasion Bowles or JTW1 don't get the winner, its invariably on their shortlist. So I need to be more aware of what type of horse is going to win a race. And staking, I'm going to have 3pts on anything up to and including 10/1, 2pts on 11/1 to 20/1, and 1pt on anything bigger than 21/1. Win only. And I'll base my stake on the best price compared to the shortest. So if a horse is 8/1 with Ladbrokes, but 12/1 with the Tote I'll have 3pts on that. This should ensure I make the most of the value out there. Applying those stakes above to my results to date, I would have a loss of 76.5 pts not 194.65 pts. Not sure that's entirely conclusive, fitting stakes around past results is a dodgy practice, but this has got to be better than what I've been doing. Here goes...........

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 Sandown: Triple Aspect 3pts win 2/1 Ladbrokes Always a bit wary if Ladbrokes are top priced about a horse.... but brings rock solid course distance and going form in to the race. Also has a high draw and three year olds have a good record in the race. 2:40 Sandown: Ace of Hearts 2pts win 20/1 & Tanto Faz 2pts win 25/1 both with Sportingbet Ace of Hearts won this race in 2005 and although now ten years old retains his ability, every chance he can go in again. At the other end of the spectrum Tanto Faz has only raced seven times and is unexposed. Good couple of runs this season and William Haggas is always a trainer to have on your side. 3:15 Sandown: Twice Over 2pts win 16/1 Bet365 (Bog) The temptation here is to take on Sea The Stars at odds on. Older horses have done well and the shortest in the betting is Conduit, but is he better over further? I'm going with Twice Over who was not beaten far at Royal Ascot by Vision D'etat, and that is top class mile and a quarter form. 2:20 Haydock: Thin Red Line 3pts win 11/2 Sportingbet Got off the mark for the season at Pontefract, is up six pounds but has the profile of a progressive horse and looks sure to be in the shake up. 3:30 Haydock: Yes Mr President 3pts win 9/1 Paddy Power & 2pts win Laterly 20/1 both Paddy Power (Bog) As Thommo would say, Yes Mr President could be a topical winner on the 4th July!!! Light raced and off bottom weight could build on three runs this season to take this. And Laterly ran well in this last year and although no show last time out could just run a big race here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:10 Leicester: Saucy Brown 3pts win 9/1 Blue Square This represents a considerable drop in company from a Group 3 at Ascot. Trip and going suit and in that context 9/1 looks a decent price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 9:20 Nottingham: Tanforan 3pts win 20/1 Stanjames Bog Was a good winner at Warwick, something of a surprise that 20/1 here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 9:35 Carlisle: Roisin's Prince 3pts win 20/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Has put up some fair performances under N H rules, could pull of something of a surprise here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

9:20 Nottingham: Tanforan 3pts win 20/1 Stanjames Bog Was a good winner at Warwick, something of a surprise that 20/1 here.

Apologies for blowing my own trumpet guys - but I've had so few winners, I've been waiting to do this for six months !!! :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana

[bowles10]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

Apologies for blowing my own trumpet guys - but I've had so few winners, I've been waiting to do this for six months !!! :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana

deserved mate, deserved just read through your post yesterday firstly, dont give up, perhaps take a few days to analyse some of your results & staking etc. What i have found is that when i bang in a 20/1 winner, my stake is normally 1pt ew or 1.5pts ew & i dont know why, i suppose its due to the price but it should be confidence not price that deters the stakes. One thing i have learned also is to keep an eye on some of the horses you have already backed perhaps next time out as often this is a good source for finding winners. You have said you want to see the factors of which horses to back etc, look at my 3yo favourite thread which has surprised me that 3yo's dont often win against their elders as they are normally badly handicapped after perhaps an easy maiden win? I always apply certain factors which narrow the field down to a smaller number, this is key to my betting & no doubt countless others. GL mate:ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Bowles, I appreciate your thoughts :ok I will do. There are some excellent threads on here.... Cheers, Steve

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 19:30 Windsor: Blue Jack 3pts win 8/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Has not won off a mark this high, but was a good winner two runs back and the form of his defeat behind The Jobber has been franked as that rival then went close at Sandown next time out. Of leading market rivals, Harry Up's best form seems to be on the all weather and Olynard has only won a maiden. Lochstar is another that is running well but again only wins have also been on the a/w.

[RussP]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Been away but just seen the dancing 'nanas:nana. Well done mate & well deserved. Quite often we fancy the same horses so it's great a big one go in for you:ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Russ - :ok For you to say that, its high praise indeed...as you da man !!!!

[RussP]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread And another one.....you're on fire:notworthy All credit to you mate for keeping this running, I like that attitude. Your perserverance is paying off:clap

[fintron]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread good stuff Steve, decent winner :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Fin....

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 17:15 Wolverhampton: Diego Rivera 3pts win 6/1 Bet365 (Bog) Nineth House looks a very worthy favourite, in form, off a winnable mark and Seb Sanders in the plate. However I'm going with Diego Rivera who was a winner here two runs back and that form (for the grade) looks solid. With the second Sweet Gale going on to two wins, and the third Gracies Gift, recording a second and a win. For Diego Rivera both trainer and jockey are in form over the past two weeks. Plenty of other dangers, however I'll side with Diego Rivera here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 20:40 Southwell: Makshoof 3pts win 8/1 Ladbrokes Has two thirds here off 80 & 76 both in class 4 races, and not beaten far on either occassion, so should be competitive off 65 here. The trainer is in decent form and had a couple of placed horses at Wolverhampton this afternoon.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 21:15 Doncaster: Divine Spirit 3pts win 8/1 Bet365 (Bog) Divine Spirit is capable of being competitive off this mark and in this class. Has wins and places around the low seventies in Class 4. Also likes ground with a bit of cut. Trainer in fine form, and is eight from thirty eight in the last fourteen days. Also a high draw should help.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 20:05 Chepstow: Desert Dreamer 3pts win 4/1 Sportingbet Desert Dreamer has run over 100 times but hold his form well. A winner at Chester last month and a close second at Epsom last time out. Goes on the ground, every chance will go close here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 York: Mr Smithson: 3pts win 16/1 Sportingbet Mr Smithson comes in here as a maiden but has put up a couple of useful performances and would not need to improve much to win here. Hopefully the first time visor will do the trick and the 5lbs his crack apprentice takes off will assist too. 3:10 York: Albaqaa 2pts win 13/1 Sportingbet & Alazeyab 2pts win 25/1 Blue Square Albaqaa represents Richard Fahey who has won the last two renewals. He was just beaten here in a quality handicap by Kavachi and steps up a couple of furlongs today. Alazeyab was a good winner at Newmarket in a class 2 race and has a five pound penalty here, but kept finding more when challenged.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:35 York: Fesko 2pts win 18/1 Sportingbet Lines up here after a win and a third in his last three runs. A very consistent performer and with trainer Mark Johnson going well, every chance can improve further off bottom weight. 2:50 Ascot: Ordnance Row 2pts win 33/1 Betfair Not sure this is the strongest Group 2 ever run at Ascot and if the principles don't fire then Ordnance Row has bits and pieces of form that might just provide a shock. Generally 16/1 with the bookies but double that on Betfair. 3:25 Ascot: Merseyside Star 3pts win 11/1 Boylesports Was a good winner at Carlisle on good going but was derailed by the good to soft at Pontefract last time. If produces Carlisle form will go close here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 The Curragh: Beauty O' Gwaun 3pts win 4/1 Sportingbet When I first looked at this race I thought it would be a matter of deciding between Sarisaka & Midday. But John Oxx's charge is eyecatching. On what she has acheived 4/1 is very short but interestingly Ladbrokes are only 11/4 !! She has only run twice, so huge scope for improvement, and there may be some doubts about Midday in the going and perhaps Sariska too?? The more I look at the race I like Grace O'Malley, but I'll stick with Beauty O'Gwaun.