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Stevet1859

New Year's Resolution Thread

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Hello, Been viewing for a while and really impressed by knowledge and winning selections on here. Thought by posting I might control my bets better and hopefully improve. Staking is my real problem!! Here goes: 12:30 Cheltenham Have this down to two. Youre the Top & Picaroon 2 pts win on each. Youre The Top may have ran better than first look at Cheltenham last time out and course form usually stands up well. Top combination in BG & NH. Picaroon - very easy winner last time - more to come. And trainer on the up. 14:10 Cheltenham Hold Em 2pts E/W - may be better for shorter trip. Like the trainer and top cliamer takes off a handy 7lb. 15:20 Cheltenham No Refuge 5pts win - Howard Johnson on a hot streak and think offers best form yet is third fav in betting. Phew...how do you guys do it. Took me ages to put this down, and I realise I've hardly said anything. Lets hope racing goes ahead !!

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Well, wasn't that exciting? What a waste of time and money New Year is. Sorry Steve, just having a go at the celebrations. Welcome to PL :welcome Good luck today. Happy New Year:cheers:beer Ginge

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New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks for support...... Now that racing is going ahead I'm going to give one other race at Cheltenham a go: Cheltenham 14:45 1pt e/w Buena Vista 40/1 (Hills) 1pt e/w & Tazbar 8/1 (Hills) Buena Vista - latest form nothing special, but looking back best performances have come here, and at price think course may bring out a better run. Tazbar - last time out at Haydock gives plenty of hope for good show today. Trainer does not have a great record at track - but going ok elsewhere. Handy 3lb taken off by claimer. Should have explained in first post that my aim is to only bet on those horses I post here. Will mean mostly week ends and days off, although I plan to go to a internet cafe when I'm at work some lunchtimes. My 'cafe' bets have not been too sucessful in the past, so I need to turn that around. Still, my Polish is really picking up!!

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New Year's Resolution Thread 14:50 Southwell Realt Na Mara 1pt win (4/1 Buesquare) Won this last year off a 3lb lower mark. Last of four on most recent outing but has never won over a mile and all wins have come at today's distance of 6F. The trainer has an excellent record at the track and is in form, (had the winner of last at Cheltenham yesterday). 14:35 Folkestone Fair Point 1pt win (4/1 PP BOG) Charlie Mann won this race last year with Air Force One, and is going again today with Fair Point. This is more of a bet on 'trends' rather than form. Nevertheless, Fair Point won ptp in Ireland and is quickly put over the larger obstacles after a respectable run in a Grade 2 hurdle at Sandown. CM must think chasing is where his future lies.

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New Year's Resolution Thread 15:35 Lingfield Paktolos 13/2 1pt win Millville 6/1 1/2pt win Grande Caiman 1/2pt win (all Blue Sq) I’m going for Paktolos to swoop late here. Alan King does well with his flat horses and maybe two of his main market rivals are a shade high in the weights – but I still respect Millville and Grande Caiman and they are not easily dismissed. Millville won this last year and Grande Caiman is a different horse on the A/W 6 from 7 here and Great Leighs. Instead of going e/w on Paktolos (as I would in the past) I’ve gone with a ½ point win on Millville and Grande Caiman something I’ve picked up from viewing other posts.

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New Year's Resolution Thread Wolverhampton 4:35 Smokey Ryder 2pts win (7/2 William Hill) Sir Mark Prescott has the market leader Cecily and there is no doubt improvement to come from her maiden win, but I think the form of Smokey Ryder's win in a claimer at Lingfield may have been under rated.

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New Year's Resolution Thread I’ve gone for some outsiders today: 1:05 Ascot Saltango ½ pt e/w 50/1 Stan James, Irish Legend ½ pt e/w 28/1 Stan James Saltango ran in listed company back in 2006, if could run to near that level – could make the frame. Ran away with jockey rather at Cheltenham and up with the pace – but that’s not the worst sign. Irish Legend, form looks pretty good if you overlook last run. 10lb higher than last win but this trip will suit better than 2 miles lto. Haydock 1:55 d’Argent ½ pt e/w 22/1 Blue Square Twelve years old and a faller lto means he is 22/1. While this trip may be short enough goes really well in the prevailing conditions. 2:40 Wincanton Terrible Tenant ½ pt e/w 50/1 Stan James The rank outsider in the betting –but – has won over c & d and still on the same mark. Best form is on a firm surface – however has made the frame on softer going. Ps really gutted about Great Leighs....:@ I live just up the road and have been several times. So good to have a course nearby. Hope they can sort something out!!

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New Year's Resolution Thread Results update.... Terrible Tenant 3rd at 50/1 :D Points: Total staked 27 Returned 23.75 Loss 3.25 Bets: Struck 16 Profitable 4 Strike rate 25% Creeping a bit closer to a profit !!

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New Year's Resolution Thread 2:35 Cheltenham Joe Lively 1pt e/w 12/1 William Hill & Snoopy Loopy 1pt e/w 20/1 Betfred I think several at front of the market are worth taking on. Halcon Genelardais may want further. Star de Mohaison may not act on the ground. I am not convinced by Tidal Bay's jumping. Nozic with Ruby in the plate looks dangerous but I'll take Joe Lively a course and distance winner & Snoopy Loopy who may not have liked Kempton at bigger prices. I think they are worth an each way bet. 3:45 Cheltenham Blazing Bailey 1pt e/w 15/2 Bet365 Bog Punchestowns is the red hot favourite - but Blazing Bailey has done so well for me in the past, will stay and likes the going. If the fav does not come up the hill BB could step up. 3:25 Doncaster Verasi 1pt e/w 18/1 Coral & Ungaro 1pt e/w Tote Verasi - those 3 P's hardly inspire confidence, but looking back through form he is better than that. Ungaro was second in this last year and looks set to go well again at a double figure price.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Just got in and watched the recording, some great racing.... Joe Lively provides my first double figure winner :nana and Ungaro comes second despite jumping right most of the way.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

Just got in and watched the recording, some great racing.... Joe Lively provides my first double figure winner :nana and Ungaro comes second despite jumping right most of the way.
:clap:clap:clap Brilliant stuff mate. A game, game horse.

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New Year's Resolution Thread 2:35 Sandown Araldur 2pts win 9/4 Totesport I was really impressed with his battling qualities last time here, and you would think this step up in trip will help. 3:10 Sandown Ballydub 1pt win 5/1 Betfred, Group Captain 1/2pt win 16/1 Ladbrokes, & Chief Yeoman 1/2pt win 16/1 Blue Square Ballydub, fell lto, but previuosly had the profile of a horse on the up. Last win at Newbury was comfortable - eased down at the finish. Rather than go e/w I've had two small win bets. Group Captain, was only just beaten by Loch Derg in a Grade2. Bit of a concern over the trip. Chief Yeoman - may just be in the handicappers grip, but has a willing attitude and likes the going. Price looks fair. 3:45 Sandown Monkerhostin 1pt win 7/1 Blue Square, Lacdoudal 1/2 pt win 25/1 Willian Hill, 1/2 pt reverse forecast Going for the two Hobbs' horses here, they like the course they like going... enough said! They might even finish 1-2. 3:25 Wetherby Campanero 2pts win 4/1 Ladbrokes Showed a fine attitude to get up and win lto and holds a decision over Will Be Done (who has no doubt improved) but I'll stick with Companero who goes on the ground and has won at the distance.

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New Year's Resolution Thread Results update: Points: Total staked 45.5 Returned 52.05 Profit 6.55 ROI 14.40% Bets: Struck 30 Profitable 7 Strike rate 23% Month in review: Well, first of all managed to keep going (and a profit). From next month - need to review staking...all shorter priced, higher staked horses have lost. Probably need to have had more on double figure picks.

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New Year's Resolution Thread After reviewing my selections and staking last month, I am going to increase my stakes on any outsider I fancy. May result in an expensive losing run but should pay off big if (when!!) I find a winner... :hope 2:00 Ayr Wild Cane Ridge 1pt win 7/2 generally Has a cracking record at the track and goes on the prevailing going. Bit of a trappy race but worth a bet on course form. 3:25 Kempton Tartak 1pt win 7/2 generally Has been running in higher grades and performing well. Looking back at French form went well at Auteuil, so should be at home here. 4:00 Kempton Macmar 5pts win 3pts place 20/1 generally Has run well here in the past. Should be capable of going very close off this mark, and handles the ground. Has a good a chance as many shorter in the market.

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New Year's Resolution Thread 1:40 Ascot: Lough Derg 3pts win & Chief Yeoman 3pts win Both 12/1 with Bet365 Lough Derg, is 7lb higher than his last win, but has won off 159, so today is not out of the question provided races have not taken their toll. However, he loves the course, goes on the ground and at 12/1 is worth a bet. Cheif Yeoman won well two weeks ago and is another that goes acts on the prevailing ground. Venitia Williams remains in fine form. 1:55 Haydock: Beat the Boys 5pts win 4pts place 25/1 generally Was looking for a relatively lightly raced horse at lower end of the weights when came across trends that suggest Beat the Boys meets a lot of the criteria for this race. Nigel Twiston-Davies might just be coming out the doldrums and some of Beat the Boys older form is very useful, particularly at Cheltenham when beat Joe Lively. 2:20 Uttoxeter: Mustakhlas 2pts win & Hever Road 2pts win Both 50/1 with VC Bet Taking a punt on a couple of outsiders. With the ground heavy - every chance of an upset. Mustakhlas is lightly raced but two placed efforts have come here. And Hever Road has been kept in training with almost two years off the course. Went well at Towcester, and does not get much heavier or testing than there. Taking the view they are either going to produce a shock or come nowhere so not going each way.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:50 Taunton: Posh Emily 2pts win 20/1 VCBet Not the greatest race. Posh Emily does have winning course form. Step up in trip is a further concern but worth a speculative punt at the odds.

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New Year's Resolution Thread 6:50 Kempton: Storey Hill 2pts win 7/1 Bet365 BOG Has dropped back to previous winning mark over course and distance. Both trainer and jockey in decent form over the past 14 days, so every reason to expect a good run.

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New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Kempton: Fleet Street 14/1 4pts win 2pts place & Laskari 20/1 5pts win 3pts place both Bet365 (Bog) Some time ago I read Nick Mordin's book Betting for a Living and seem to remember that he made a lot of money betting on course specialists in this race. Looking at this field there are several that makes elimination difficult. However, I'm taking the Stan James Handicap Chase on the 27th Dec as key here. My selections ran first and second and I'm looking for them to go well again. Big Fella Thanks was also in the field and interestingly the Racing Post comments in running say he was starting to look held when unseating three out. He has since won well at Doncaster - but is up 13lb as a result. Nicky Henderson produced Marlborough to win this at aged 12 a few years back so with Barry Geraghty aboard Fleet Street should go well. Laskari has a good record on the course, and Paul Webber has had 2 wins from 8 runs over the past two weeks. 3:30 Newcastle: Harmony Brig 4pts win 2pts place 16/1 with Bet365 (Bog) Jass looks like a horse still improving, but at the prices will take him on with Harmony Brig has top weight but so did Comply or Die last year. Looking at the trends a 4 mile plus slog would suggest lightweights, but those at the top of the handicap have gone really well in recent years. It looks like Harmony Brigg has been trained for this with a good effort in a hurdle at Ayr. Has excellent course form, 4lbs higher than winning the Rehearsal Chase in December 2007 which was on this same going.

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New Year's Resolution Thread 3:05 Lingfield: Style Award 2pts win 7/1 Bet365 (Bog) Style Award has winning form over course and distance. Interestingly that was after a lengthy lay off too, so the 116 days since the last run are not necessarily a worry. Went up to a mark of 85 but has now dropped down to 72 which is lower than when winning over C&D in March 2008. Can't say I know too much about the trainer and no wins recently, but jockey in good form over the past 14 days.

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Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Cheltenham Gold Cup: Air Force One 33/1 William Hill 5pts E/W I have been following Charlie Mann this season and he is having a really good run. Knocking in the the winners and showing a profit. I was impressed with Denman last year - thats an understatement - not seen anything like it. But there is a theroy that may have bottomed him out and I have to say Kempton at Christmas added weight to that. It will take a big turn around to retain his crown. Kauto Star - well I sometimes wonder if he fully stays the distance - perhaps a silly thing to say about a former winner, but definitely more at home at the tight turns of Kempton. Neptunes Collonges may come out best of Paul Nicholls' runners. Madison Du Berlais may not produce his best at the course, and while Exoctic Dancer won well in Ireland - is he improving? Barbers Shop is well worth a second look and so would Notre Pere if the ground came up soft, but it rarely does. So I've taken 33/1 about Air Force One.

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New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Folkestone: Deep Pockets 16/1 generally 4pts win 2pts place Gallileo Figaro is clearly the form horse - but running so soon and with a 14lb penalty is asking a lot. And looking at the trends for this race only one favourite has obliged out of the last seven runnings. Buffalo Bob looks a danger but I'm going with Deep Pockets. He has three wins from nine lifetime hurdle starts and is quite lightly raced for a 10 year old. Today Deep Pockets is 7lb higher than his last win which was only an amateurs race, but he may still be open to more improvement. Going and distance fine.

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New Year's Resolution Thread 4:10 Folkestone: Apatura Dik 3pts win 11/1 Blue Square Got off the mark over fences here, and if his jumping holds up must have a big chance. Looking back at that win the third has come out and won since, and in the comments Apatura Dik is described as kept finding more. Hopefully slower pace of this marathon trip will put less pressure on his jumping.

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New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Newbury: Hobbs Hill 3pts win 10/1 Ladbrokes Hobbs Hill is a course and distance winner and usually goes well fresh so the 58 day layoff is not a problem. Charlie Egerton is 6 from 14 with chasers here showing more than £20 Lsp over the past five years. Over the same period Tony McCoy has a 39% strike rate when riding for trainer at Newbury. Hobbs Hill is lightly raced and looks set to go close.

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