New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:00 Stratford: Nearby 2pts e/w 9/2 Ladbrokes Form reads as though Indian Blood should have won both last races, on penultimate start he beat Kevkat in to second place, but Nearby had the same horse well in arrears when getting off the mark at Newton Abbott in March. Nearby also seems to be happier on the better ground - so should make a bold bid.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 4:50 Kempton: Silent Hero 2pts e/w 9/2 Betfred Michael Jarvis is going really well, with a double last night at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Windsor. Silent Hero does not have the best of draws but looks primed to go close off just a 4lb higher mark than when winning at Warwick last season.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:05 Epsom: Aureate 2pts e/w 10/1 Bet365 (Bog) Ran really well over course and distance in June last year. He is 6lbs higher here but acting on the track is a huge plus. Going no problem and with Ryan Moore in the plate - worth an each way bet. 4:15 Epsom: Ramona Chase 1pt e/w 25/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Another horse who has put up career best performance at this venue. A little lower in the handicap than when finishing second to Conduit no less in June last year, although at a respectable distance! Useful jockey / trainer combination.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Perth: Erics Charm 3pts win 4/1 Bet365 BOG Erics Charm goes for a repeat here. And if you take out Ollie Magun who is on a long losing run, this looks a pretty open event. Erics Charm goes much better right handed and his last but one effort at Sandown was a fair effort. He handles the prevailing conditions too. 2:30 Beverley: Punch Drunk 2pts e/w 14/1 Ladbrokes Her last race at Yarmouth has worked out really well, producing two winners and several places. Different ground today and the price probably reflects that, but ran ok on firmer going at Newmarket in a Class 2 race.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Sandown: Kilbeggan Blade 2pts e/w & Zacharova 2pts e/w both 14/1 Bet365 (Bog) Things did not work out at Aintree and maybe like a lot of horses he just did not take to the National fences. However, Kilbeggan Blade is two from two here. Course form is a big plus and while he may appreciate softer going this looks a decent each way bet with Tom George in reasonable form. Ventia Williams has had a great season and could top it off here with Zacharova. Only six but stays well and boasts course form. Has won over three miles five furlongs at Cheltenham, and there may be more improvement to come. 2:05 Sandown: Dantari 3pts e/w 10/1 Bet365 (Bog) Dantari is on a hat trick after wins at Newbury and Fontwell. He is two pounds out of the handicap - but is in form , goes on the prevailing conditions and Evan Williams charges are running well.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:55 Ascot: Tungsten Strike 5pts win 5/2 Paddy Power (Bog) Won this race first time up a couple of years ago. Ideally suited by this small field. Trends of the race are not good for favourites. Amanda Perrett's horses are in good form, and all her winners at Ascot over the past five years have been four year olds plus.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread The end of another month and the figures speak for themselves. I'll give it a go for May, but if I can't do any better I'll pack it in. Year to 30th April 2009 Points: Total staked 348 Returned 239.85 Loss 108.15 ROI -31% Bets: Struck 103 Profitable 22 Strike rate 21%

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Newmarket: Evasive 3pts e/w 9/1 Paddy Power (Bog) I have been looking at the trends for this race and though no expert I think Evasive comes out really well, meets just about all the main criteria - added to which is trained by Sir Michael Stoute and has been drawn high in 13.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 1:40 Uttoxeter: Outlaw Tom 2pts e/w 6/1 Skybet Outlaw Tom may not have been given the credit his victory over Kilbeggan Blade deserved last time out at Warwick. Ok, Kilbeggan Blade was probably tuning up for the Grand National - but nevertheless it reads quite well to me. Dreamy Sweeney looks sure to go well and Flaming Charlie could be anything, but Outlaw Tom looks a pretty solid each way bet. 2:45 Uttoxeter: Anglicisme 2pts e/w 8/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Won a seller here in January and since then has been chasing. If fine about return to hurdling must be in with a decent shout at the prices. Favourite Rio De Janeiro probably holds that position on his run in the County Hurdle a year or more ago.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:15 Newmarket: Serious Attitude 2pts e/w 13/2 PaddyPower (Bog) & Lahaleeb 1 pt e/w 14/1 Ladbrokes Serious Attitude is unbeaten coming in to this race and should improve for this step up to a mile. Has course form and goes well on the ground. Lahaleeb keeps getting knocked because she has been out far more than her rivals and struggled to get off the mark in maidens, but the penny has certainly dropped now and there is no doubt she has trained on. Also boasts winning course and Group form.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:50 Newmarket: Fullandby 2pts e/w 10/1 Ladbrokes Fullandby was third in this race last year of a pound higher mark. Not getting any help from the handicapper but looks sure to run another solid race. Ryan Moore in the plate a plus and has winning course form.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:25 Windsor: Ballinteni 2pts e/w 9/2 Bet365 (Bog) Trans Siberian will make a bold bid to repeat last year's win, but top weight Ballinteni looks interesting after finally getting some respite from the handicapper. Dropped in to a class 4 here on a course where he has goes well - should ensure a good run.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:15 Chester: City Dancer 2pts e/w 5/1 Bet365 (Bog) City Dancer is well drawn and represents last year's winning trainer / jockey combination. Conditions look to be in her favour and she had a good pipe opener at Musselburgh a week ago, travelling well until the furlong pole. Although Alan Berry has only had one winner in the past fourteen days - this looks a good opportunity for City Dancer.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 2:45 Chester: All The Aces 2pts e/w 13/2 Paddy Power (Bog) Bit of a concern that has been off for almost a year, although that said goes well fresh. Ran well when second to Doctor Freemantle here last season. Form that reads well. Michael Jarvis is in good form and All The Aces acts on the going and may even improve for this step up in trip.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 1:20 Haydock: Elzahann 2pts e/w 7/1 Ladbrokes Elzahann is on a hat trick and every chance of completing that. Was an easy winner last time out over this sort of distance and goes well on the ground. Ferdy Murphy is in good form and Graham Lee in the saddle another plus. 1:40 Ascot: Binfield 1pt e/w 28/1 Skybet Was second to Supaverdi at Bath, and may have been flattered by that, nevertheless the form of that Bath race looks solid and at the prices - looks worth an interest each way. 1:55 Haydock: First Point 2pts e/w 14/1 Skybet It took all Barry Geraghty's strength to get First Point up in the finish last month at Cheltenham, but he did travel well through that race and this bigger field should be a plus. Ground and trip fine and Nicky Henderson still producing the winners. 2:10 Lingfield: Greensward 2pts e/w 5/1 Bet365 (Bog) Laudatory will be the hot favourite especially after an impressive win first time out and her maiden form being enhanced by the 1000 guineas winner. However, must just be a question over whether will translate form to turf. So Greesward looks a rock solid each way bet. Very useful form at two and went close in a nursery. Brian Meehan in good form. 2:15 Ascot: Quest for Success 2pts e/w 25/1 Sportingbet Won well last time at Thirsk; has winning form at the distance, goes on the ground, and has won on a straight track. A wide open race but quite a few things in Quest for Success' favour and the high draw looks good too. 2:40 Lingfield: July Jasmine 4pts win 7/2 Paddypower (Bog) Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore team up here. July Jasmine was relatively easy to back on her debut but the form looks pretty solid. With her entries, every chance will improve for better ground here and step up in trip. Has plenty of scope. 3:05 Haydock: Garnica 1pt e/w 11/1 Bet365 (Bog) Garnica brings rock solid seven furlong form in to this race. There are question marks over the going - but can go on good ground, and apart from last season has won on reappearance. (Previously three year olds have a poor record in this race.)

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:00 Longchamp: Tamazirte 2pts e/w 10/1 Ladbrokes Fantasia may well win this for Luca Cumani and Frankie, but Tamazirte seems over priced to me. Double the odds of Proportional, who she beat cosily last time out. Seems to be progressing well, is a course and distance winner and her trainer is in good form.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:00 Beverley: Buy On Red 2pts e/w 8/1 Bet365 (Bog) Buy On Red looks primed for a good run here. With conditions to suit, off a winning mark and with the Dandy Nicholls stable going well, worth a bet, and interestingly shorter with most other bookies. 2:40 Brighton: Thoughtsofstardom 2pts e/w 14/1 William Hill Has been running ok without troubling the judge but goes well on this course and also handles the firm going. Off a winning mark and claimer takes off a further seven pounds.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 6:50 Lingfield: Fiefdom 2pts e/w 12/1 Sportingbet Looks a decent each way bet against the favourite The Galloping Shoe - has winning course form.

[fintron]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

6:50 Lingfield: Fiefdom 2pts e/w 12/1 Sportingbet Looks a decent each way bet against the favourite The Galloping Shoe - has winning course form.

not too far away with that one.....14/1 second....at least you get the profit from the place. :clap

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Fin - I'd really like to nail one of those soon!! A double figure winner would make my stats look a whole lot better... 3:10 York: Equiano 2pts e/w 6/1 William Hill I have been looking at some of the stats for this race and Equiano comes out very well. Eight out of ten of recent winners have been aged four or five, and eight out of ten have been rated over 110. Add in a low draw and Barry Hills in cracking form and Equiano should run a big race, particularly as last year's Royal Ascot win was also on good to firm going.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 2:40 York: Redwood 2pts e/w 8/1 Stan James (Bog) I was at Newmarket last month when Redwood and Nehaam both won. My recent form tips have been none too successful, so I'll put Redwood up on the impression he made that day. As they flashed by he seemed to be comfortably holding Drumbeat who has gone on to run creditably at Chester. Every chance that Redwood will come on for this extra furlong.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 1:40 York: Everymanforhimself 2pts e/w 15/2 William Hill Is back off his last winning mark of 90 (when beating Strike up the Band) and has run well on this course posting some good speed figures. Made the frame on seasonal reappearance at Beverley, and every chance will be in shakeup here.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 York: Mia's Boy 2pts e/w 7/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Won this race last year and tuned up for a repeat with a fine second over seven furlongs at Yarmouth at the end of April. A higher mark to overcome but some question marks over a number of rivals so should at least make the frame on favourable going.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 2:40 Newbury: Pressing 3pts e/w 10/1 Bet365 (Bog) Hard to say what Pressing acheived when winning in Turkey - but it was a very valuable race, and maybe all the travelling took its toll by the end of last year. However, he goes well fresh, acts on the going, and trainer Michael Jarvis is in fine form. In terms of the trends for this race he meets pretty much all of them and has a previous Group One success to his name - although that was in Italy. Seems a cracking each way bet to me.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Newbury: Lasso The Moon 2pts e/w 28/1 Sportingbet Ran his best race here on good to soft and comments after subsequent outings suggest there is a big run in him somewhere, hopefully today! A return to a softer surface and perhaps some feminine handling may just bring out the best in him. 3:45 Newbury: Spanish Bounty 2pts e/w 20/1 generally Spanish Bounty goes well on the soft and is only a couple of pounds higher than when winning at Newmarket last year. Trainer and jockey teamed up for a winner at Newbury yesterday. 2:55 Newmarket: Chiberta King 2pts win 11/2 Ladbrokes I always seem to worry if Ladbrokes are the biggest price about one of my selections - 99.9% of the time they know far more than me, but Chiberta King's win at Windsor was pretty impressive and Admirable Duque the third in that race won next time out and reopposes here, although on worse terms. Clowance House is apparently Royal Ascot bound, but Chiberta King whose win was on good to firm looks the classic each way bet with the dead eight runners. Arrrrgh ....typical just seen there is a non runner!!!! Still like Chiberta King though - so will have 2pts win. 3:30 Newmarket: Record Breaker 2pts e/w 9/1 William Hill (Bog) Seems to produce his best races on good to firm and will stay this mile and six. Racing Post makes mention of first time blinkers, not sure that Mark Johnston puts blinkers on that often, either a promising sign or an act of desperation!! I'm taking it as a positive.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 Haydock: Percolator 2pts e/w 14/1 Sportingbet It may be worth taking a chance on Percolator to pull off a mini surprise here. Had some pretty useful form in France and last year, second in a Group 2 and won a Group 3. Did suffer an injury, but if all is well 14/1 looks big. Goes well on good to soft. 2:20 Goodwood: Rash Judgement 3pts e/w 10/1 Betfred Brings solid course and distance form to the table here. Only beaten a length by the well backed Aye Aye Digby earlier in the month. 2:50 Goodwood: Dona Alba 3pts e/w 13/2 Blue Square Is lightly raced and has shown her best form on good ground and undulating tracks. Her third at Epsom was franked when the winner Duncan went on to win a Listed race. John Dunlop likes to have winners here and Dona Alba gives him a good chance today. 3:05 Haydock: Beacon Lodge 3pts e/w 6/1 Sportingbet Looks to be the each way horse to take on Main Aim with. Looks a solid form choice with recent course and distance win franked by Ordnance Row. Clive Cox's horses are running to form and William Buick in the saddle is another plus. 3:45 York: Bahamian Babe 3pts e/w 12/1 VCbet Had a good pipe opener behind Sirens Gift at Bath but every chance can improve on that here. A course and distance winner in May last year and that was on firm going too. Useful claimer takes off a handy seven pounds.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 6:30 Lingfield: Mooteeah 3pts e/w Sportingbet 9/2 Michael Jarvis has a good record here and Mooteeah looks a solid each way bet to get off the mark this season. Ran pretty well on debut at Newmarket and build on that promise here. 7:00 Lingfield: Good Buy Dubai 3pts e/w Bet365 (Bog) Brings in solid all wether form to the race and won off a one pound higher at Kempton five runs back, back on the polytrack surface today and should go well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread At the end of April I said that I'd give up if I could n't do any better. I can't resist having a go for June though, with two classics and Royal Ascot coming up. So in an effort to try and justify carrying on I can say that while I've not improved I've got less bad!! Figures from 1st January to 31st May: Points: Total staked 496.00 Returned 363.60 Loss 132.40 ROI - 26.69% Bets: Struck 138 Profitable 36 Strike rate 26.09% Looking back at the end of April my ROI was -31% and is now -26%, so its an improvement of sorts!! I'm only losing a quarter of my stake now rather than nearly a third !! :loon Seriously, I've had a lot more picks make the frame this month, if one of thosed decent priced placed horses had got its nose in front - I would have returned a profit on the month. (But I didn't!! :( )

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 Epsom: The Derby.. Fame and Glory 4pts win 4/1 & Golden Sword 1pt e/w 40/1 both William Hill Fame and Glory comes in to the race unbeaten yet is passed over by Johnny Murtagh. He follows a path well worn by previous Derby winners. Will stay every inch of this trip and looked good winning the Derrinstown Derby Trial. Fame and Glory has got better with each race and his most recent performance (good time) was on the firmest going he has run on so far. Golden Sword went in to Chester as a suspected pacemaker but ran out a good winner. That success looks to have been underrated. If he is sent to the front here, Golden Sword may be hard to pull back and at least make the frame. Aiden O'Brien has had plenty of unfancied horses run well in big races before.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:25 Epsom: Eva's Request 5pts win 4/1 Bet365 (Bog) Eva's Request powered home at Goodwood. I was tempted to go each way with the dead eight - but feel she will either win well or blow out, hopefully she will reproduce her Goodwood form!! Goodwood's an undulating track and Eva's Request was not too far away in last year's renewal of this race so maybe this type of track suits her. Spacious could win easily but its 232 days since her last run and I'm happy to take her on. 3:00 Epsom: Captain Dunne 2pts e/w 10/1 William Hill & 1pt e/w Merlins Dancer 25/1 Bet365 (Bog) Captain Dunne looks an interesting runner for Tim Easterby, not the sort of man to waste his time travelling south unless he has a good chance. Captain Dunne has had a couple of runs back on turf and with plenty of speed looks primed to go well here. Can't get any better in the plate either, (although Mick Kinane does not have an impressive record for the trainer!!) Merlin's Dancer is all speed and goes well here - finishing runner up last year off a pound higher mark than today. Simon Dow has had a winner and a couple of places from a handful of runners in the past two weeks so his horses are running well.