New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 8:50 Wolverhampton: Lindoro 3pts win 9/2 Stan James (Bog) Lindoro comes here after two respectable runs on tuft this flat season. He is yet to win on the all weather but a couple of runs at the end of last year at Kempton give him a good chance today. Not beaten far on both occasions in Class 3 handicaps, the form looks solid. Winners have come out of both races. Walter Swinburn is the leading trainer with runners at the track tonight and he is in reasonable form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 9:20 Wolverhampton: Hector Spectre 3pts win Bet 365 Bog Creeps in at the bottom of the weights here and has won off a higher mark. If visor works could go very close.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 19:10 Southwell: Lucky Mellor 3pts win 7/1 Sportingbet Lucky Mellor along with favourite Mahiki has winning course form that can be crucial here. Lucky Mellor has not set the world alight away from Southwell but the horse he beat Koo and the Gang went in next time out here which is encouraging. Trainer Dean Ivory is in decent form with a win and a second from ten runners over the past fortnight. Seb Saunders takes the ride.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 17:00 Brighton: Space Pirate 1pt win 50/1 Betfair A speculative bet!! Space Pirate has been running over further but drops back a furlong here at the scene of his only success. That was off 52 but did beat Lady Florence that day and runs here off 42. Probably on the down grade....but may also just be revived by being reunited with winning jockey. Jeff Pearce is in fine form. At 50/1 worth taking a pot shot.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:50 Newbury: Qalahari 1pt win 33/1 Stan James (Bog) Is the outsider of the field at the time of writing, but ran a very respectable second in a Listed race on Good to soft last October at Newmarket. Drops down in to handicap company here and the step up in trip may well pay dividends. Not sure whether some of the other runners nearer the head of the market will handle the ground - so Qalahari worth a small interest.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread Qalahari - is a non runner..... 2:35 Newmarket: Uvinza 3pts win 12/1 Stan James (Bog) Uvinza was third and behind Flame of Gibraltar last time out at Royal Ascot. However, she has run respectably on soft before behind Rainbow View at Doncaster last year. A couple of others may have more scope for improvement but Uvinza ran quite well at long odds on her debut here at Newmarket too. 2:50 Newbury: Folly Lodge 3pts win 6/1 William Hill Won well at Doncaster over this distance and similar conditions, hopefully every chance can follow up here. Trainer Ralph Beckett in fine form, with a 26% strike rate in the past two weeks.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 19:25 Lingfield: Shake on It 1pt win 66/1 Stan James Requires a leap of faith for Shake On It to show some old form, but did act on the track and did perform over this distance. Trainer could hardly be in better form, two wins and a second from four runners in the last two weeks!

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 20:20 Windsor: Cool Ebony 3pts win 10/1 Bet365 (Bog) Cool Ebony runs here off a mark of 72, a rating he has won off in the past. Although only 5th last time out at Warwick, that was respectable and not too far away, running on at the finish.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 17:15 Yarmouth: Taboor 3pts win 10/1 Betfair Silver Prelude will be a warm order to follow up here, but has not won off a mark this high on turf. On the face of it Taboor has it all to do. But he won this race last year, and in his 'prep race' last year he finished plum last. This year, lto again following a lengthy time off, he was an encouraging third. At eleven still seems to be holding his form. Trainer in good form, two wins frm seven runs in the last fortnight.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 20:50 Southwell: Eightdaysaweek 3pts win 5/1 Betfred Eightdaysaweek has valuable course form with a win and second - which counts for a lot at Southwell. After his win, there was no disgrace in being second to Lucky Punt who follwed up off a six pound higher mark.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:00 Lingfield: Roleplay 3pts win 8/1 Betfair Ran on well at Wolverhampton last time out over 6f as if this extra furlong will suit. Good time too. On the negative side he has never won a race. However, very lightly raced and up against some horses that look fairly exposed. One or two are dropping to favourable marks but Roleplay is only off 57 and William Carson takes off another 5 lb. Every chance that can get off the mark here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 18:45 Leicester: On The Bounty 3pts win 7/1 William Hill Got off the mark at the first attempt at Doncaster where the going was good to soft, soft in places. Then went to Beverley at the beginning of this month and could only manage fifth, but that was on firm going. Back on a softer surface today with Paul Hanagan in the plate, should go close, with Richard Fahey still in fine form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:10 Bath: Bounty Reef 2pts win 25/1 Boylesports Has a nursery win off 54 to her name on good to soft. Bounty Reef has mainly been running on firmer surfaces since and down the field. Could pop up here at a decent price with conditions in her favour off 50, so long as she gets this trip. Trainer going well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 19:00 Folkestone: Pollenator 3pts win 15/2 Victor Chandler Ran a race of huge promise at Newbury before giving way in the closing stages. Not fancied that day - so probably ran above expectations. Every chance can build on that here tonight. 19:35 Folkestone: Native Dame: 2pts win 16/1 William Hill Native Dame put up her best performance on good to firm at Musselburgh on her penultimate start. Can't say I know much about the trainer but a winner from two runners in the past fourteen days is fine.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 20:25 Doncaster: Astronomical 3pts win 20/1 Sportingbet Astronomical was a good second over course and distance last time out. For a seven year old lightly raced, with only fifteen lifetime starts. So may just come on enough to take a hand here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 20:55 Doncaster: Steel Trade 3pts win 8/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Has put up some fair efforts in maidens and while has to shoulder top weight here, could well improve for this step up in trip.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:25 Ascot: Golden Desert 3pts win 6/1 Ladbrokes & South Cape 2pts win 20/1 Stan James (Bog) Golden Desert won this race last year, and is reunited with winning jockey. Best form seems to be over course and distance, and although five pounds higher here ran well at the Royal meeting and looks sure to go close again. South Cape is another that looks well handicapped and if visor works could pull off something of a surprise. 2:00 Ascot: Party Doctor 3pts win 11/4 Coral Lamh Albassr is the favourite, but has followed a less orthodox route for a Godolphin two year old. Starting off in a maiden at Leicester and then a nursery, which makes me think he has acheived more than they expected. Also a gelding. So I'm going for Party Doctor, who is the only maiden in the field but boasts just about the best form. Just missed out in a couple of good maidens then third at Royal Ascot. 3:15 Ascot: Peking Prince: 3pts win 6/1 William Hill Peking Prince looks to be on an upward curve and although three pounds out the handicap here David Probert's claim cancels that out. Won well at Newbury on the 11th June, and went as well again when third at Ayr in a race where the form looks solid. 3:50 Ascot: Roaring Forte 3pts win 5/1 William Hill Just seen this is the Pricewise horse !! Lightly raced and an impressive winner at Newmarket in May. William Haggas has a 22% strike rate here with 3yo+ and an lsp of £96. With Ryan Moore in the saddle does look to have an excellent chance and may be more improvement to come. 4:25 Ascot: Tartan Bearer 3pts win 7/2 William Hill Tartan Bearer has some excellent form over this trip (although has never won at 12f!!). He won the Dante last year and Derby run was top notch well clear of Casual Conquest in third and with Frozen Fire well behind. Although the latter reversed that in Ireland. Sir Michael Stoute is so good with his older horses and there was no disgrace being beaten by Vision d'Etat at Royal Ascot. Back up to a mile and a half here looks a good bet.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Bit of a gutter today .....four Seconds....!!! :sad Still on to Sunday.... 4:35 Ascot: Greylami 3pts win 8/1 Bet365 (Bog) Greylami looked as though peaking lto when just touched off by Fanjura at Sandown earlier this month, who went in again off a five pound higher mark. Terry Mills does well at Ascot and Chris Catlin a good man to have on your side.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:10 Ascot: Mandurah 3pts win 6/1 Betfred Dandy Nicholls is mob handed here, and dangers all over the place, but following a sprinter in form is usually a good tactic. And Mandurah comes in here in good form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:10 Goodwood: Drumfire 2pts win 16/1 Stan James (Bog) Drumfire has to shoulder top weight here but a couple of runs this year put him in with a shout at a decent price. The close up fourth at Sandown behind Conduit reads well as does the second at Pontefract. Needs to be quickly away to take advatntage of high draw, but has run ok here in the past when third in a Group 3 last year. Did fall a couple of years back here so hopefully won't remember that!! 3:25 Goodwood: Finjaan 3pts win 12/1 Ladbrokes Finjaan is the second string here for Hamdan Al Maktoum, but there is reason for hope. Ran really well in the Dewhurst, after flopping in the Guineas this drop back to 7f may be perfect. At the weekend Marcus Tregoning had a nice winner and Finjaan has won here. May surprise.

[Spooner]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Brillaint steve. :clap

[fintron]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread lovely double there, great work :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks for kind words on here and on the Goodwood thread... :cheers To be honest can hardly believe it - got in and watched the recording - and had to watch it several times to make sure I wasn't dreaming - even encroached on Emmerdale!!!!! :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana After a string of losers - two in a day :cow:cow

[RussP]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

Thanks for kind words on here and on the Goodwood thread... :cheers To be honest can hardly believe it - got in and watched the recording - and had to watch it several times to make sure I wasn't dreaming - even encroached on Emmerdale!!!!! :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana After a string of losers - two in a day :cow:cow

Top bombing Steve:clap:clap:clap Love the balls-out attitude of betting on the nose at big prices. Rich reward & well deserved.:ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Russ :ok 2:10 Goodwood: Baddam 2pts win 16/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Baddam won this race last year off a one pound lower mark. On the plus side he goes on the track, stays the distance and handles the ground. The negative is his mixed recent form. Won well over hurdles with AP in the saddle but runs on the flat have been below par. Taking a bit of a chance that cheek peices and back at Goodwood work the oracle.

[Aykay1]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Quality double today, hope you made a wedge :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:25 Goodwood: Cloudy Start 3pts win 7/1 Bet365 (Bog) I'm basing this selection very much on the draw, which has been kind to Henry Cecil's charge. Looking down his form every reason to believe he can take advantage of the 21 spot here. Nearly every race reads 'prominent' 'with leaders' 'led' or similar. So if Tom Queally can jump him out and be in contention from the off he must have a fine chance.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:45: Goodwood: Parisian Pyramid 3pts win 10/1 Bet365 (Bog) David Nicholls has an excellent record in this race and his Parisian Pyramid has every chance of enhancing that today. Was a very creditable second at York two runs back, the winner Swiss Diva went on to run in a Group 3. Parisian Pyramid has a course and distance win last year in a nursery too.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread End of month: Its been my best month so far with a 51 point profit and a ROI of 36.69%. While I'm pleased with that, the year to date figures show a loss of 143 points, which I need to clear. 1st January to 31st July Points: Staked: 796 Returned: 652.35 Loss: 143.65 ROI: -18.05% Bets: Struck: 245 Profitable: 50 Strike rate 20.41% This month I came up with some good bets, some bad ones and some shockers. I need to cut those real shockers out. In an effort to do that I'm making notes for each race and then reviewing the selections afterwards. On to August....

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:55 Goodwood: Thin Red Line 3pts win 9/1 Skybet Jedi looks like a favourite to take on, (not sure about the trip). On the other hand Thin Red Line has rock solid credentials over this sort of trip. He won well at Pontefract and then went as close as possible to following up at Haydock, going down by a nose. The horse Thin Red Line beat at Pontefract (Standstill) went on to win his next two races. Ed Dunlop's horses running well. 3:40 Goodwood: Knot In Wood 2pts win 16/1 Bet365 (Bog) & Sonny Red 3pts win 12/1 Ladbrokes Knot In Wood ran well in this race last year, rather undone by the draw then. With 'high' seemingly the place to be this year, may be up against it again, but comes in to this year's renewal in even better form. Has a Group 3 to his name and a good win last time out in a big field at York. Richard Fahey going great guns and his claiming jockey is a regular pilot. May just be able to make his class tell. While Knot In Wood does not meet hardly any of the trends, Sonny Red ticks just about all the boxes; age, draw, weight. Crucially both horses are in form which I think is particularly important for sprinters. 2:25 Newmarket: Jack Cool 3pts win 7/1 Bet365 (Bog) Jack Cool was a runaway winner of a Yarmouth maiden and was given a stiffish mark as a result. However, goes well with a bit of cut and could go close here. Peter Chapple-Hyam's runners performing well.