New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 8:50 Kempton: Pinch of Salt 2.5 pts win 14/1 William Hill (Bog) & Charm School 0.5 pt win 7/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Pinch of Salt has dropped down to a rating he is capable of winning off, and has gone close off higher. He is the only course and distance winner in the field. Andrew Balding is going well. Charm School has under acheived on the track, but must be well thought of at home, often has been well backed. Has the type of pedigree I think is suited to the all weather, and on breeding should appreciate this step up in distance.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:20 Lingfield: Gifted Apakay 1.5pts win 16/1 Sportingbet & Favorite Woods 1.5pts win 16/1 Blue Square Both of these horses look very well bred and could be capable of winning this race. They look overpriced because of the Kieren Fallon factor on the favourite.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:45 Kempton: Boogie Waltzer 2.5pts win 12/1 Sportingbet & Rosedale 0.5pt win 14/1 Bet365 (Bog) Boogie Waltzer may do better now she goes handicapping and does not look overburdened on her first attempt. High draw will also help, if she can break quickly may take some catching. Rosedale is another possibility, although rather disappointing last time. Has won a nursery and previous all weather effort was creditable, the winner Soul Heaven followed up at Ascot off 75.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Charm School wins nicely at Kempton :) On to tomorrow... 2:55 Haydock: Magicalmysterytour 1pt win 14/1 Bet365 (Bog) & Nemo Spirit 1pt win 14/1 VC Bet The ability to stay and handle the softer going will be paramount here. Magicalmysterytour was only nineth in the Ebor but previously was only just touched off by Hits Only Vic, also at York. That is rock solid handicap form and he has won on soft. Nemo Spirit won on his last but one outing over two miles at York on the good to soft, so won't lack for stamina, only two pounds higher here, and could go close.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:30 Haydock: Sayif 2pts win 69/1 Betfair Certainly a longshot, but led the Group One Maurice De Gheest for a long way on good to soft at the beginning of last month. He was only beaten a length or so behind Kings Apostle who would probably be in the first six of the betting here if taking part. Sayif is lightly raced, and goes on the ground, (doubts surrounding some of the principles) and informed opinion seems to favour a high draw. Peter Chapple-Hyam is in good form, knotched a double the other day at Lingfield.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 7:50 Wolverhampton: Swords 2.5 pts win 8/1 Paddy Power (Bog) & Zalkani 0.5pt win 8/1 Boylesports Going with the top and bottom weight here. Swords looks to have dropped to a handy mark. All six of his wins have been on the all weather and four here at Wolverhampton. Did win off 62, maybe not quite as good now at age seven but off 52 should be competitive. Zalkani is another that likes it here. A pound higher than his last win, although has won off higher, probably a little on the downgrade too, but capable in this sort of class. 9:20 Wolverhampton: Cheers for Thea 2.5pts win 8/1 Bet365 (Bog) & Highland Starlight 0.5 pts win 14/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Cheers for Thea went close on her first all weather start, going down by just three quarters of a length to King Of Connacht here on the 17th August. Every chance she can improve on that and go two better. Highland Starlight creeps in at the bottom of the weights, has to be a suspicion that this filly is better than she has shown so far, may do better on the all weather too.

[chris34]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Well done with Cheers for thea you managed to get on at an even better price than I did, was heavily backed aswell pleasing win!!

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Chris.... 2:00 York: Ejaab 2.5 pts win 7/1 Bet365 (Bog) & Jimmy The Poacher 0.5 pt win 16/1 Sportingbet Ejaab won a soft ground maiden at Catterick, before running third at Kempton on the all weather. This step up to seven furlongs should suit and the going should not be a problem. Jimmy The Poacher represents a stable in form, nice winner last night. Three creditable efforts in maidens starting here and lastly at Chester where only half a length back in third, mean that with some improvement could go close today.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 York: Master Rooney 2.5pts win 12/1 & Tajneed 0.5 pts 10/1 both Bet365 (Bog) Its a big ask for Master Rooney, but he beat Swiss Diva on his last run at Leicester in October 2008. Its probably best not to get too carried away with that - but it looks quite good in the light of her performances this year. That was on good to soft too. Master Rooney is less exposed than most and if fully tuned up could go close. David Nicholls will be on a high after yesterday and you can't rule out his sprinters - Tajneed crucially will like the going and off a winnable mark.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:40 Bath: Leftontheshelf 2pts win 25/1 Ladbrokes (Bog) Leftontheshelf has joined Miss Spearing and I don't claim to know much about her, interestingly though Dane O'Oneil has ridden one of her few winners. Lightly raced and capable of going close off 74. Change of stable may bring about some improvement from this filly.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:30 Newcastle: World of Choice 1.5pts win 20/1 & Amethyst Dawn 0.5pts win 7/2 Both Bet365 (Bog) World of Choice is competitive off this sort of mark and this distance on the all weather at Southwell, if he can translate that form to soft going on turf could go close. A risk, but at 20/1 worth finding out. Amthyst Dawn has been dropping down the handicap and with the going in her favour has a fine chance today.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:20 Folkestone: Mick's Dancer 2.5pts win 7/2 Bet365 (Bog) & Ethics Girls 0.5 pts win 8/1 Sportingbet Micks Dancer has been in cracking form and is only three pounds higher for his last win at Bath. Both trainer and jockey, (Darryll Holland very good judge of pace for a front runner) going well. Looks a solid bet. Ethics Girl won well at Sandown and drops down in class today after defeat at Beverley. Slight concern races might be coming a bit quick for a filly.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:40 Lingfield: Transfer 2pts win 25/1 Bet365 (Bog) & Dance & Dance 3pts win 14/1 Paddy Power Regeneration looks a solid favourite, however looking at two lightly raced types here. Transfer won first time out and then never reproduced the same form for the rest of the season. Maybe first time out is the time to catch him. Andrew Balding is capable of getting one ready, and if Transfer could reproduce his form over this course and distance again may surprise. Horse he beat Totally Focused won next time off 75. Dance and Dance has some handy turf form last couple of runs and if can reproduce that back on the all weather should go close. Maiden form behind Set The Trend looks useful.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:30 Goodwood: Mujood 3pts win 8/1 Bet365 (Bog) Mujood goes on any ground and goes well here, with three course victories. Has the visor back on today that he wore when winning off 84. a pound lower today and although never won over seven furlongs here, he has won over that distance at Beverley. Mujood was staying on behind Golden Desert last time out here and this is a slight drop in grade.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:45 Lingfield: Greek Key 3pts win 10/1 Stan James (Bog) Greek Key's form is nothing to write home about, but can't help but feel that being primed to strike. 10/1 looks a decent price as both Michael Bell and Hayley Turner do well here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:45 Lingfield: Public Service 3pts win 18/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Quite liked the look of some of the maiden form and another potential improver. Already backed one in this race but will be gutted if this wins and nothing on it. So topping up, particularly when seen price.

[fintron]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

5:30 Goodwood: Mujood 3pts win 8/1 Bet365 (Bog) Mujood goes on any ground and goes well here, with three course victories. Has the visor back on today that he wore when winning off 84. a pound lower today and although never won over seven furlongs here, he has won over that distance at Beverley. Mujood was staying on behind Golden Desert last time out here and this is a slight drop in grade.

well done Steve, on the nose too :clap:clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Fin - more than a touch worried when a certain Mr Fallon loomed up on the outside....but held on well - good ride from William Buick.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 8:20 Kempton: Miss Minnies 16/1 Betfred, April Fool 20/1 Sportingbet, & My Shadow 25/1 Betfred. 1pt win on each The Scorching Wind may well trot up again, but looking at the prices, some of the other runners are worth a small investment. Miss Minnies creeps in to the bottom of the weights here and the Irish form is hard to assess. April Fool is a bit hit and miss but has won at Kempton off 69 and is just three pounds higher tonight. My Shadow has won here off three pounds lower and Simon Dow going well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 6:20 Kempton: Tulip Explosion 3pts win 18/1 VC Bet & I'Malwaysright 3pts win 10/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Tulip Explosion was a little unlucky last time out at Wolverhampton, could be a touch better than bare form. I'Malwaysright has had a spell off, not beaten far by Soul Heaven in May and David Elsworth has a 21% strike rate here with his 2 year olds. 8:50 Kempton: Herrera 3pts win 25/1 Sportingbet Seems a very big price for a Richard Fahey trained Paul Hanagan ridden last time out winner. First time on all weather, if she takes to it could go close.

[fintron]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 16/1 a great price for miss minnies :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:35 Kempton: Eyes Like A Hawk 3pts win 8/1 Bet365 (Bog) Gets first all weather start today and should handle the surface. Tom Dascombe has a good record here with his three year olds, 18% strike rate, and Ross Atkinson one of the more experienced jockeys which is a big plus.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 9:05 Kempton: Romantic Verse 2pts win 40/1 Stan James (Bog) Romantic Verse has won off 67 and 63 on the all weather and goes today off 62. Not in great form but not that many runs ago that in winners enclosure. A revival would make 40/1 look very big.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 9:10 Wolverhampton: Golden Prospect 3pts win 5/1 Paddy Power (Bog) Golden Prospect won last time out at Brighton and has won off 69 here in the past. Running off only 54 tonight so should have good prospects of following up. Trainer John Hills in fine form with six winners in the last fourteen days.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:05 Doncaster: Secrecy 2pts win 8/1 Stan James (Bog) & Balcarce Nov 1pt win 16/1 William Hill (Bog) Secrecy looks interesting on his first start for Godolphin (although why is Frankie not riding?) The form of his two races last year for Michael Jarvis look rock solid. He won here first time out and then pulled hard behind Liberation at Ascot. The winner went on to Newmarket where he was favourite for a big sales race contested by some nice horses and Monitor Closely was one of those behind. If Secrecy settles every chance could improve and go close today. Balcarce Nov came good for me two runs back and has conditions more in his favour today. Not disgraced in a Listed race over seven last time and back up to a mile today, worth a small interest. 8:50 Wolverhampton: Beauchamp Victory 3pts win 7/1 Coral Has an impressive record here, four wins and a second and has won off 3lb higher. Beauchamp Victory won't lack for anything from the saddle and trainer's horses in form and fine record here. 2:10 Goodwood: Jet D'Eau 2pts win 14/1 VC Bet & Isphahan 2pts win 12/1 Skybet Jet D'Eau's two runs in this country have been quite promising. And was a creditable fifth last time out over course and distance indicated her well being and there could be more to come on her third start. Isphahan is capable of winning off this mark and although out of the handicap here ran well last time out and could be capable of playing a hand in the finish. 5:05 Chester: Doubly Guest 3pts win 9/2 Bet365 (Bog) Looks an interesting recruit for Tim Vaughan, whose horses are going well over the sticks. Doubly Guest has not won off this high a mark, but went very close off just a pound lower last time out and the form of her last couple of races looks reasonable.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 6:50 Wolverhampton: Herbert Crescent 3pts win 12/1 William Hill (Bog) Not too much to recommend Herbert Crescent at first look at the form figures, but ran well for a long while here last time out on the 21st August. Has been dropped a further five pounds by the handicapper and is on a mark could win off. May spring a small surprise.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:20 Bath: Dubai Crest 3pts win 9/1 Stan James (Bog) Bab Al Salam will be popular, but at even money may mean that a few are overpriced. One could be Dubai Crest for Amanda Perrett. Won quite nicely at Windsor when not getting the clearest of runs. Down the field at Beverley last time, but looks capable of going close here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:10 Bath: Thunderous Mood 2pts 20/1 Stan James (Bog) This time last year Thunderous Mood was competing in a Group race in France, came second too. If he could come back to anywhere near that form after ninety two days off, could pull off a mini surprise. 4:55 Goodwood: Ivory Lace 3pts win 8/1 Blue Square Ivory Lace won well last time out and has been put up seven pounds, that may seem harsh but she has won off a ten pound higher mark than todays 75 here in the past. Not sure whether quite as good now, but in form and likes the course and going. 3:55 Ffos Las: South Wing 3pts win 6/1 Paddy Power (Bog) An interesting Irish raider with an interesting jockey booking. Looks as though handicapped to go close, and trainer does well with his British visits.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:05 Ffos Las: Andrasta 3pts win 16/1 VC Bet (Bog) Was a winner off 50 a couple of runs back at Ayr and remains reasonably treated off just two pounds higher here. Royston Ffrench going great guns so won't be lacking from the saddle and seems worth an investment at the prices.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:00 Leicester: Jordaura 3pts win 100/30 Bet365 (bog) Has only had a couple of runs on turf and went as close as possible without winning last time out at Bath behind Irish raider Johnstown Lad. Races off the same mark here again and while this is competitive, particularly with Hightime Heroine in opposition, (although that one's maiden form is hard to weigh up), I'll side with Jordaura.