New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 6:20 Kempton: Mary Celest 2pts win 20/1 & Chat De Soie 3pts win 14/1 both Stan James (Bog) Two lightly raced sorts here who are cpaable of improving, with Mary Celest Robert winston has a fair record riding Kevin Ryans two year olds and she slips in the bottom of the weights here. And for Chat De Soie three reasonable runs, nothing too outstanding but as a result may be on a decent mark and take a hand here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 6:50 Kempton: Militarist 3pts win 12/1 Blue Square Has been a little disappointing on turf, however John Gosden has a good record here as does Jimmy Fortune. With the blinkers on tonight, every chance that Militarist could go close.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 8:50 Kempton: Honourable Endeavour 3pts win 12/1 Paddy Power (Bog) & Spinning Waters 2pts win 25/1 Blue Square Honourable Endeavour stays this sort of trip and went clsoe on the all weather at Wolverhampton in Janaury off a four pound lower mark. With Spinning Waters the trip hold a question mark but you would think pedigree wise worth a shot and did win off a higher mark at Pontefract in April.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 9:20 Kempton: Musical Script 2pts win 16/1 William Hill (Bog) Capable of going close off this sort of mark. Mainly been running over 6 furlongs but has won over this distance, and seems to run on at the end of six furlong races. Worth an interest at the price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 6:10 Wolverhampton: Leyte Gulf 2pts win 20/1 Blue Square & Little Carmella 1pts win 5/1 Bet365 bog Leyte Gulf won nicely at Haydock the time before last and has gone close off this sort of mark on the all weather before. Dane O'Neill rode on one of those occasions too, and takes the ride again tonight. Little Carmella looks worth an interest as well, she has slipped to a winning mark, has won off three pounds higher at Great Leighs. Ran a decent race after a long abscence behind Lady Hestia at Yarmouth last time out.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 7:50 Wolverhampton: Sanjav's Choice 2pts win 64/1 Betfair The question is why is he here? You would think that there would be opportunities in Ireland, so I'll take a chance that Sanjav's Choice is better than he has shown so far. His third to Dark Humour at Dundalk about a year ago was not bad form winner rated in the nineties.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 9:20 Wolverhampton: Black Rock Lake 2pts win 16/1 Stan James (bog) & Broughtons Paradis 1pt win 15/4 Sportingbet After Sanjay's Choice's good run in the 7:50 with very little form to his name, I'll row in here with Black Rock Lake from the same stable. Hopefully she will make the trip worthwhile. Most of her form is on heavy (bottomless) in Ireland. Well bred and if takes to this surface could go close off just 65. And I agree with other guys about Broughtons Paradis. Looks like she won going away at Yarmouth and could be a filly on the up.

[markmywords]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 7:50 Wolverhampton: Sanjav's Choice 2pts win 64/1 >Betfair Hell of a shout man place bet would have been supreme.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Yes, you are right Markmywords :ok, at those sort of prices I should really have been going each way, or saving on something!! Still not cracked this staking lark!! 3:10 Ayr: Brave Prospector 2pts win 20/1 & 2pts win Jimmy Styles 20/1 Both Stan James (Bog) Brave Prospector comes here in fine form after winning over seven furlongs at Doncaster last week and picks up a 5lb penalty three of which is cancelled out by Jack Mitchell. Winning over seven is not such a bad thing as last year's winner proved and Brave Prospector is lightly raced for a sprinter just fourteen life time starts. Jack Mitchell has ridden plenty of winners in the last two weeks so he will be riding with confidence. As for Jimmy Styles he was third in the race behind Brave Prospector and had previously been only three quarters of a length third in a Listed race behind Palace Moon at Newmarket. Well behind Genki at Goodwood but that was a funny race in the fog and on the soft. Has crept up the weights for not winning, but is very capable of being competitive in these big cavalry charges. Frankie riding plenty of winners and is selective these days, a 24% strike rate in the last fortnight.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 Ayr: Six of Hearts 2pts win 20/1 Bet365 (Bog) Is a solid handicapper who can be effective over five furlongs to seven. In good form at the moment, and two runs ago was only a couple of lengths behind last week's Portland winner Santo Padre. Trainer does not come over to these shores often so must think Six of Hearts has a decent chance of landing the prize in this competitive field.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:35 Catterick: Lochiel 3pts win 9/1 Stan James (bog) & Royal Entourage 1pt win 14/1 Bet365 If you go back a couple of races Lochiel was finishing less than a length behind Cosmic Sun at York. He unseated his rider next time out and ran down the field at Southwell, but if he can come back to that York form could go close today. Royal Entourage has been in fine form on the all weather in Ireland and is lightly raced on turf. If he can translate that form to turf could be in the shake up here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:50 Wolverhampton: Helping Hand 3 pts win 10/1 Bet 365 (bog) Decider 1 pt win 5/1 Betfred Helping Hand looked to be coming to hand last time out. He has won off this mark of 52 before at Great Leighs and claimer takes off a handy seven pounds. Decider could be a big danger, ran well last time at Ffos Las and also has won off present mark on the all weather.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 9:00 Kempton: Leading Edge 3pts win 1pt place 18/1 Sportingbet Leading Edge had her first run since April at the beginning of September and probably no surprise that she came last. Still that pipe opener should set her up for this return to the all weather of a mark off 67 she has been sucessful off at Great Leighs in the past. A high draw is a plus although Mick Channons form is something of a concern. Quite a few placed though.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 6:50 Wolverhampton: Ivory Silk 3pts win 8/1 & Almaty Express 1 pt win 16/1 Both William Hill (bog) Ivory Silk looked to be coming to hand last time out at Sandown, denied a clear run but still finished quite well. A wider draw here is a concern but only four pounds higher than last winning mark on all weather and lightly raced on the surface so could be more to come. Almaty Express has a fine record here and is back to last winning mark. Darryll Hollland was on board that day and interestingly is booked again tonight. If gets away at the start may be hard to pull back.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:35 Ascot: Rulesn'regulations 2pts e/w 25/1 Sportingbet & Son of the Cat 1pt e/w 18/1 VC Bet (Bog) If Rulesn'regulations can translate his all weather form to the turf he could be interesting here. Not much to go on but could not have been winning more easily. Son of the Cat has Kieron Fallon aboard and won well the time before last on the turf. Has been put up quite sharply for that, but may well be more to come from this lightly raced gelding.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:00 Ascot: Charlie Cool 2pts e/w 20/1 Skybet Only last winter Charlie Cool was winning at Nad Al Sheba off 97, that was pretty useful form. He has not produced the same back here, but there was more to like about his second at York last time out. That was a claimer but ran on well and on a surface probably too soft. On the basis his shrewd trainer would not waste the travel costs to run here, when surely there are opportunities closer to home, could be worth an interest, if coming back to near old form. Lots of possible improvers in opposition, but some question marks too. While Charlie Cool has some questions of his own to answer, he is at least a decent each way price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:55 Ascot: Shamwari Lodge 3pts win 6/1 William Hill (bog) & Cosmopolitan 1pt e/w 20/1 Paddy Power (bog) Shamwari Lodge found Fantasia took good last time out, but had previously won well at York. She is up six pounds today but there could be more to come. Cosmoplitan has been tried in both a Group One and a Group Three, although this would seem a more realistic level amd only three pounds higher than win at Newbury in July. Had a break and can come back here refreshed.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:00 Haydock: Filligree 3pts win 10/1 William Hill (bog) & Silver Wind 1pt e/w 20/1 Blue Square Filligree looks to be a sprinter in form and she quicked well to win at Bath last time out. Likes the fast going. With Silver Wind if you overlook his last run, then surely would be near the head of the market. Won off 82 at Doncaster, handicapper has put him up, but claimer takes off a handy five pounds.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:15 Ascot: Zacinto 1pt win 28/1 Stan James (bog) Going in to the Celebration Mile at Goodwood informed opinion suggested there might be little between Zacinto and Delegator. On the day Delegator ran out a comfortable winner. However, today's race is likely to be run at a much faster pace and this could allow Zacinto to settle better. All things being equal Zacinto looks an unlikely winner, but looking at the prices 28/1 looks awfully big about a Sir Michael Stoute trained Ryan Moore ridden runner. Worth a point.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:50 Ascot: Machine Gun Kelly 1pt e/w 16/1 & Nom De La Rosa 1pt e/w 50/1 both Stan James (Bog) Both of these horses have had the minimum three runs and could show themselves in better light now they run in a nursery. The more likely is Machine Gun Kelly who should improve for this step up to seven furlongs. Nom De La Rosa has little form, however 50/1 does seem overpriced and could crawl in to a place.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:20 Musselburgh: Windjammer 3pts win 10/1 Blue Square & Rocketball 1pt win 6/1 VC Bet (bog) Windjammer has not had many runs this turf season, so could be coming to the boil after a useful second at Catterick last time out. The third went on to win next time out. Rocketball ran well from out of the handicap at Goodwood and is a course and distance winner here and only a couple of pounds higher than last victory.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread As I was off work for a couple of weeks in September I spent more time on my selections. While the shed and fence never got painted, the results for the month do show a profit of 50.5 points on 192 staked, with a ROI of 26.3%. Staking is still giving me headaches. I've settled in to a routine with my scale of 3pts 2pts 1pt for win only bets, based on price and value. However, there are times when I should bet either; each way, win and place, or save. So this month I started using a saver and had some each way bets to try and cut down on long losing runs. A couple of savers won, and this is an area that I need to work on in the coming months. One of the benefits of posting on here is, I can learn from seeing how other members stake their selections. Year from 1st January to 30th September: Points: Staked 1170 Returned 1105.85 Loss 64.15 ROI -5.48% Bets: Struck 411 Profitable 66 Strike rate 16.06%

[fintron]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Steve, recent results have been really good in here, with plenty of big priced winners going in. A lot of people on PL seem to have found Sept difficult, so for you to get those figures is really impressive, keep up the good work :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks very much Fin .... 3:40 Newmarket: Applause 2pts win 1pt place 12/1 & Tryst 2pts win 1pt place 16/1 Both Sportingbet (5 places) Going with two lightly raced types. Applause comfortably beat Wannabe King when they met at the end of July. Not beaten far last time out at Ascot and ran on well at the finish. Could potentially be very good. Tryst is another with few miles on the clock. Only beaten a length and a quarter at Ascot last week over ten furlongs, and that should have blown away the cobwebs as has not run since the end of May. Ran pretty well at Newmarket behind Roaring Forte, so track and going should not be a problem.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 8:15 Wolverhampton: Hyde Lea Flyer 2pts e/w 25/1 Betfred & Omnium Duke 1pt win 9/1 Totesport Hyde Lea Flyer sports a row of duck eggs, however he has won off this mark and from six runs on the all weather has won two and been placed twice. Ran poorly last time, but off a four pound lower mark in a slightly lower grade may spring a surpise with trainer in decent form, had a winner yesterday. Omnium Duke ran a very decent race last time out here, going down by just a length and a quarter to Sham Sheer. He had previously broken his maiden here and it looks like Omnium Duke can be effective off this mark.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 6:15 Wolverhampton: Shakespeare's Son 3pts win 1pt place 12/1 Bet365 (bog) Shakespeare's Son ran ok last time out at Yarmouth. He gets the first time visor tonight and one of the leading all weather jockeys in Fergus Sweeney booked. Capable of running better on this surface and has gone close off higher marks here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:05 Redcar: Babyshambles 3pts win 7/1 William Hill (bog) & Cape Royal 1pt win 24/1 Betfair Babyshambles has had a short break to freshen up, and has gone well in these circumstances in the past. Runs off a mark of 69 this afternoon and did win a class 4 handicap off 68, so with Paul Pickards claim, he should be competetive. Cape Royal may be nine but like many of Milton Bradley's sprinters hold his form well. Back on turf can go close off 75. Rather surprised that so big on Betfair, perhaps a worrying sign but worth a point.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Prix de L'arc De Triomphe: Beheshtam 1pt e/w 40/1 Stan James (Bog) On the bare form Beheshtam has a fair bit to find, but trainer Alain de Royer Dupre could not be in better form, with a top class treble at the course on Saturday. Beheshtam is a course and distance winner and like so many of the Aga Khan's horses has a fine middle distance bloodline. This colt is very lightly with just a handful of starts and he could just be seen in a different light with a strong end to end gallop.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 8:50 Kempton: Straight Face 3pts win 4/1 Paddy Power (bog) Straight Face comes in here tonight with some solid credentials. Four wins from six starts and and a plum draw makes the 4/1 seem reasonable. Only three pounds higher than win last time out.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 9:20 Kempton: Sovereignty 3pts win 10/1 VC Bet (Bog) Comes in to this race after a solid third last time out over course and distance. Has won off a higher mark in the past and with Dane O'Neill taking over in the plate every chance could go close. Trainer does well here with his older horses.