New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:25 Leopardstown: Voy Por Ustedes 2pts win 8/1 Paddy Power VPU is a top class chaser, the main doubt is whether he will stay this three mile trip. With a few concerns over the market leaders he may be worth chancing based on his third to Kauto Star last year at Kempton. Cooldine has a long abscence to overcome, Joncol did benefit from some fallers last time, and Notre Pere has fallen and run poorley at Haydock. Often this race has been won by a British raider, and Alan King is finding some form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:35 Southwell: Harlech Castle 3pts win 11/2 Paddy Power & Bo McGinty 1pt win 9/1 William Hill Harlech Castle has fallen to an attractive mark. He has run twice at Kempton recently and now looks ready to strike, dropping in class. If he can reproduce second to Irish Pearl here last November off a twelve pound higher mark he will take some beating. Bo McGinty is another that has been dropping down the handicap. Has mainly run over five furlongs but looking through his form some of his best runs have been at six.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:20 Southwell: Tourist 2pts win 1 pt place 12/1 Tote Tourist has been showing good form at Wolverhampton over further, but must have been showing his trainer some speed to drop him back here. Trainer is in good form with two winners from nine runners in the past two weeks.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:55 Southwell: Clear Reef 2pts win 1pt place 10/1 Bet365 Clear Reef comes in to this race in good form. He has won off slightly lower marks, but the combination of acting on the track and trainer in form give him a solid chance here.

[fintron]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

1:55 Southwell: Clear Reef 2pts win 1pt place 10/1 Bet365 Clear Reef comes in to this race in good form. He has won off slightly lower marks, but the combination of acting on the track and trainer in form give him a solid chance here.

go on son, cracking shout :clap:clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Fin ....:ok today will be me last day posting this year (because of work) so it was nice to have that winner!! I've had some pc problems so have to recreate December's records before posting up the final tally....

[StuSimmy]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Harlech Castle goes in as well :nana

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Stu :ok - it was nice to finish with a couple of winners. And December was a good month with 98 points staked, a profit of 37.10 and a ROI of 37.86% Final figures: 1st January to 31st December 2009 Points: Staked 1656 Returned 1599.30 Loss 56.70 ROI -3.42% Bets: Struck 559 Profitable 95 Strike rate 16.99% Thoughts on the year: Positives: Kept the thread going!! Much more consistent staking from about June onwards. Started to produce my own sheet for each race with a view on each runner and a short list - rather than cryptic notes round the edge of the daily paper. The selections improved, November apart, as the year went on. Punting High: Balcarce Nov, winning at 40/1, 66/1sp & 160+ on Betfair (I took the 40/1 !!!) Negatives: Went on 'tilt' a few times. Too many long shots (and no savers). Not enough time spent on some selections. Little or no post race review. Punting Low: those 20+ losing streaks How to move forward: Get in to the habit of watching the replays each night. Review races, see what went right or wrong, and if selection tailed off - don't just tear up notes in disgust; learn from those. Analyse results and identify which type of races I do best in, and why. Back each way or use win and place bets where appropriate. Bet on two and/or a saver in some races. A return will cut down on the demoralising losing runs. Remember that there are value horses out there across the price range, they don't have to be at big odds. Learn and benefit from skills and knowledge of other forum posters. Summing up the year: I would have liked to have crept in to profit. Still I feel a foundation has been laid and I have identified areas where there is scope for plenty of improvement. And finally: I have really enjoyed the year. I get a sense of comradeship from the site and I get withdrawal symptoms if I don't check out what's happening on the forum for a few days. Which I think is a tribute to the quality of the member's posts and the way suggestions are made and advise is offered. A Happy New Year to everyone....and I plan to carry on in 2010 and aim to do better.....

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:15 Southwell: Reve De Nuit 2pts win 10/1 Bet365 & McConnell 1pt win 5/1 Boylesports Reve De Nuit looks interesting on his British debut. Usually it pays to stick with horses with form here, but Reve De Nuit has some form on the all weather at Deauville and while I'm no expert on pedigrees all his relatives have the USA in brackets after their name. His sire Giant's Causeway was second at Churchill Downs on dirt. So hopefully some of the ability to act on this surface has been passed on. McConnell comes here in fine form and has rock solid credentials on the surface.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:05 Southwell: Ponting 2pts win 8/1 Tote & Charles Parnell 1pt win 7/1 Bet365 Ponting lines up here on the back of a win in a claimer but that seemed a game performance and being a claimer the form may be under-rated. He is now two from three at Southwell and with course form a big plus and being lightly raced, there is every chance he can improve again. Charles Parnell is well handicapped and has been running ok at Wolverhampton without hitting the headlines, but lines up here off 64 when a year ago was second off 82. If the Southwell factor causes a mini revial should be thereabouts.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:35 Southwell: One Cool Dream 1pt win 16/1 William Hill One Cool Dream can only be a speculative investment as she has just a third to her name and has left Walter Swinburn. However, looking at her pedigree she can trace her family all the way back to Secretariat. Not suggesting for a moment she is anywhere in that class, however with all her American relatives, she should take to the deep surface at Southwell and any improvement off 59 could see her go close. Having Chris Catlin the top jockey at the course riding is a plus.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:35 Lingfield: Strategic Mover 1pts e/w 14/1 Sportingbet Strategic Mover is still a maiden which is a concern, however only fourteen lifetime runs, and came close last time out at Kempton. He is up a furlong here today and if the combination of the tongue tie and visor work again could go close.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:35 Kempton: Paktolos 2pts e/w 9/1 Sportingbet Paktolos lines up here after a good second behind Mildoura at Lingfield. The fifth that day Follow The Flag won yesterday at Southwell. Just over a year ago Paktolos won off 88 and is off 82 today, and claimer Mark Coumbe takes a further five off. On that basis, Paktolos seems a horse that is well handicapped, handles the course, and stays the trip. Plenty of dangers, but should give a good account.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:40 Southwell: Dawn Storm 2pts win 15/2 Skybet & Bright Sparky 1pt win Blue Square 12/1 Dawn Storm lines up here much better in with Dart for a three length beating last time out. Dawn Storm has presumably had his problems but with only five lifetime starts there is a chance can improve again. Bright Sparky was only just touched off by Russian Music at Wolverhampton on his last all weather start and acts around here, a reproduction of that effort should see him go close.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Southwell: Crimson Mitre 2pts e/w 9/1 Stan James Crimson Mitre had his first run for three months when a moderate fifth here in December. However, if he can build on that he is handicapped to go close, having won over this course and distance in July off this mark. The ability to act on the track is a big plus, hopefully it will be a going day.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 12:40 Southwell: Mango Music 1pt win 10/1 Coral The outsider of the field, however maybe not a forlorn hope. Her all weather rating is much lower than her flat one so lines up off 59. Not beaten far in to seventh on first run here. Shane Kelly has a decent record when hooking up with the stable.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 12:30 Lingfield: Ten Down 2pts win 8/1 Bet365 & Bluebok 1pt win 9/1 Tote Ten Down has become well handicapped. Lines up today off 55 and has won here off 67 for Martin Dwyer. Comes flying out the stalls and may take some catching. Bluebok is another that is quite well handicapped, not beaten far on last outing here and Jack Dean back in the plate and he did steering when Bluebok was last sucessful.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Lingfield: Bound By Honour 2pts win 11/1 Stan James Bound By Honour won well on his penultimate outing here and then was a touch disappointing at Wolverhampton last time out dropping back in trip. This mile and a half will be more to his liking. Could still be well handicapped on this surface.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:30 Lingfield: Vinces 1pts e/w 20/1 Skybet & Pachakutek 1pt win 11/2 William Hill Vinces can be competetive off this sort of mark and interestingly is reunited with Hayley Turner today who rode Vinces to victory here in March last year. With several horses closely matched Vinces represents a decent bet at the price. Pachakutek is very lightly raced and could potentially be well in here off just 63.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:10 Lingfield: Elna Bright 2pts win 1pt place 11/1 Bet365 Elna Bright won well here on the 21st November last year when not getting a clear passage. His style of racing is to be held up and then a burst of speed - which suits Lingfield well. He is four pounds higher today, however has won off higher on turf and lightly raced on the all weather. Also well suited to seven furlongs.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Lingfield: Lord Fidelio 3pts win 5/1 Sportingbet Lord Fidelio got off the mark in good style at Kempton in December. His previous try in handicap company after a long lay off, also at Kempton was a solid effort behind Fernando Torres. Now he has got his head in front Lord Fidelio can build on that performance.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Lingfield: Boogie Waltzer 1pt win 10/1 VC Bet Boogie Waltzer has not set the world alight, yet looks as though she is reasonably handicapped and with Andrea Atzeni taking a handy three pounds off and trainer Stuart Williams in fine form a small investment may prove worthwhile.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:20 Southwell: Grand Palace 3pts win 4/1 Ladbrokes Brazilian Brush scored a run away win last time with the blinkers applied, and much will depend whether he can repeat that performance dropping back a furlong. At this level, consistency is not the strong suit, so it may pay to side with Grand Palace who has put up two solid performances at Lingfield on his last two outings. Grand Palace goes well here and has won off a high of 63. He has not raced here for a while, last time was in February last year when beaten just over a length off 67. Grand Palace looks to have a good chance over getting his head in front.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:35 Lingfield: Bella Charlie 1pt e/w 14/1 VC Bet Bella Charlie has just the three runs to his name and does not look overburdened with a mark of 59 today. He was not beaten far behind Too Putra at Kempton and with cheek pieces on today and running over a mile for the first time he may get in the shake up at a decent price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:50 Southwell: Caol Ila 2pts win 16/1 Stan James & Turf Time 1pt win 11/4 Coral Caol Ila ran a decent race when third behind Vilnius at Wolverhampton and was a reasonable fourth here last time out on her first run at the track. Southwell takes some getting used to and she may well progress for the run. She would not need to improve massively to take a hand. James Given has a good record at the track Turf Time has probably the best Southwell form on show and looks a solid saver.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:45 Kempton: Gee Dee Nen 1pt e/w 33/1 William Hill Gee Dee Nen is a pound out of the handicap and the outsider of the field, however he could have a better chance than first appears. Last time out he was poor yet his runs at Ascot and particularly when winning at Ludlow in February last year over three miles look more than useful. A light weight and the ability to stay will come in handy. Gary Moore often has a winner of these big handicaps and he has been in decent form with a winner and several going close over the past few days. Andrew Glassonbury taking off a further three pounds is a help. Could surprise with visor fitted.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 Kempton: In Media Res 1pt e/w 22/1 & Marchant D'Argent 1pt win 9/2 both Stan James In Media Res has a six hundred day absence to overcome. Presumably has training difficulties, but if close to peak fitness could go close as last two runs were very good, a second at Plumpton and a win at Newton Abbott. He has won after a couple of layoffs in the past and handles the soft. Marchant D'Argent is another coming back, not having run this season. However he looked very useful last year with a couple of smooth wins at Taunton and Chepstow and unlikely to lack fitness from the Phillip Hobbs yard.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:05 Wolverhampton: Spring Hawk 2pts win 1pt place 16/1 Stan James Spring Hawk is lightly raced and could be interesting stepped up in distance here. On his last run at Wolverhampton Spring Hawk was up against it at the weights. On bare form, he is reasonably well in and would not have to improve much to take a hand if staying the extra half mile. Kieren Fox looks a good booking and has a profitable record in apprentice races. In recent times Irish trainers have done well on their British raids at the all weather.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:20 Wolverhampton: I'm in the Pink 1pt e/w 14/1 VC Bet & Ahmedy 1pt win 9/1 Sportingbet I'm in the Pink lines up here for his first all weather start. He signed off the flat season with a good win on the heavy at Nottingham and although five pounds higher here every chance he could take to the surface and go close after keeping fit over the sticks. Trainer David Evans in good form and Richard takes a handy five off. Ahmedy comes back from a long layoff but has gone well fresh before and could be a surprise packet.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:20 Southwell: Handsinthemist 3pts win 9/2 Bet365 Handsinthemist had her first run since July when a creditable third here in mid-December. She lines up today on a lower mark than previously sucessfull, and with trainer in fine form, Handsinthemist looks to hold every chance.