New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:40 Southwell: New England 2pts win 14/1 & Highland River 1pt win 9/2 Both Bet365 New England has a pretty good record on the all weather, crucially he wins his share of races, and goes well here. Worth an interest first time out for his new yard. Highland River probably brings the best recent form in to the race and won here off 54. He then ran down the field last time out and has been dropped back down to a pound higher than last sucessful.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:50 Southwell: Bel Cantor 3pts win 7/2 William Hill Harlech Castle will be a tough opponent as he bids to complete a hat trick, however Bel Cantor ran really well last time in a Class 2 race when out of the handicap. The cheek pieces were on for the first time in a while then, and are applied again today. There appeared to be no fluke about the performance, with Tourist looking a very good winner and in form horse Imprimis Tagula and solid performer Nightjar filling the places. A reproduction of that form should ensure Bel Cantor will be in the shake up.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:55 Lingfield: Black N Brew 2pts win 15/2 & Bolanderi 1pt win 4/1 Both Stan James Black N Brew notched his first all weather win here two runs ago by a head from Basara. He then stepped up a couple of furlongs with Marc Halford in the plate and ran ok without looking like winning. Dropped back here to ten furlongs with Robert Winston taking over he could go close. Bolanderi is lightly raced and would not have to improve significantly to take a part after an encouraging effort at Wolverhampton after a break. 2:55 Lingfield: Zerzura 3pts win 11/4 Stan James A mark of 73 for Zerzura looks pretty fair. He beat Capeability and Peace Corp (won mext time out) at Wolverhampton. Those two are pretty solid 70 ish rated horses. There is every reason to think that Zerzura can come on for that run and should have more scope than most of this field. A drop back in distance a help more than a hindrence. Charles Eddery takes off a handy seven pounds.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:25 Lingfield: Tallawalla 2pts win 10/1 Paddy Power & Fusaichi Flyer 1 pt win 6/1 Coral Tallawalla has little to write home about in the form book, but a strong suspicion that she could do a lot better now in a handicap. Mick Channon's horses running well. By Ontario who had the 1-2 in the Dewhurst, so breeding gives evey hope for a good run. Fusaichi Flyer put up a good pefrormance second time out behind Playboy Blues a reproduction of that would see him go near.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:40 Kempton: Breathless Kiss 2pts win 11/2 Bet365 Breathless Kiss must have been highly thought of, as started of in a novice event rather than a maiden. She then ran down the field at Redcar in the Two Year Old Trophy. Presumably something was amiss as not seen since. Worth chancing in this.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 7:30 Kempton: Dreamwalk 2pts win 1pt place 11/1 Stan James Dreamwalk was a touch unlucky the last time he ran here behind Tripitaka, who is a progreesive sort and that form might well look good here tonight. First time cheek pieces and Andrea Atzeni's 3lb claim could make the difference.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 8:00 Kempton: Resplendent Alpha 2pts win 8/1 Betfred Resplendent Alpha goes well here and has dropped to a mark of 70 and quite capable of winning off that. Tends to be a bit hit and miss, but looks as though could go close tonight at a decent price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:05 Newbury: Any Given Day 2pts win 1pt place 25/1 Ladbrokes Any Given Day looks to have a better chance than his odds suggest. He seems to be reasonably handicapped. He ran well for a long way in the Challow hurdle before running out of petrol and this drop back to shorter looks likely to suit. He handles the going and his trainer is in good form. He also fits quite a few of the trends of past winners. Suspect that Any Given Day's price is likely to be shorter on Saturday.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:00 Newbury: Quinz 3pts win 1pt place 20/1 Skybet & Woolfall Treasure 1pt e/w 20/1 Coral Quinz has not taken to the larger obstacles so his form figures read 5FP, however he looked pretty useful over timber. He beat Burton Point and Fiendish Flame at Haydock in a Class2 race and both of those horses went on to run really well afterwards, chalking up several wins, so the form looks rock solid. Woolfall Treasure has been off for almost a year, but that's not a problem these days. This step up to three miles could bring improvement and off a light weight could be in the shake up.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 Kempton: Splinter Cell 2pts win 8/1 Paddy Power Splinter Cell looks to be an improving sort while several of his rivals are more exposed. He won a class 2 handicap off 90 at Wolverhampton in December after not getting a clear run. Next time out he ran second to Philatelist on the same course. That looks pretty decent all weather form as that rival went on to be third in a Grade 2 handicap at Santa Anita. Trainer is in form and while there are plenty of dangers Splinter Cell looks worth an interest.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:20 Kempton: Kristallo 2pts win 13/2 Stan James Kristallo looks to hold a good chance to follow up off just a two pound higher mark than his course and distance win. This will only be his third all weather start and there looks to be scope for improvement. Dane O'Neill keeps the ride.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:40 Wolverhampton: Straboe 2pts win 7/1 Blue Square Straboe was going well last time out over six furlongs before finding nothing and dropping out of the frame. Having won at Yarmouth the time before, there is a suspicion that something went wrong. If that is the case worth another try here. Particularly with a drop back to five.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 6:15 Wolverhampton: They All Laughed 2pts win 7/1 Ladbrokes & Paint the Town Red 1pt win 10/1 Bet365 They All Laughed went pretty close last time out at this course and off the same mark with a further couple of furlongs to run could get his head in front. Quite well handicapped on old form. Paint The Town Red goes well in these races too and if things fall his way could be in the shake up at a fair price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:00 Haydock: Llama Farmer 2pts win 14/1 Ladbrokes & Wayward Prince 1pt win 4/1 Totesport Llama Farmer was a shock 33/1 winner last time out. However, the second Fabulous Fred & the third Glenwood Knight have both won comfortably since. They were 7/4 & 5/2 in the market for the race that Llama Farmer won so the form looks pretty solid. Paul Webber is in decent form which makes the 14/1 on offer look worth taking. Wayward Prince is another promising sort and made no mistake last time out at Doncaster. Could improve again here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:50 Lingfield: Benandonner 2pts win 8/1 Paddy Power & Cry of Freedom 1pt win 14/1 Skybet A competitive race, however Benanddonner goes well here and was only just touched off by Autumn Blades last time. He is on better terms with that rival and with luck in running could go close. Although only nineth behind Elna Bright the time before last, was going well before being hampered badly. Its interesting that Cry of Freedom is still in training and and if anywhere near fit, this 2 year old listed winner could surprise.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:55 Southwell: Bennelong 2pts win 1pt place 10/1 Bet365 Bennelong won a maiden here last October when ridden by Frankie Dettori. He has some reasonable polytrack form and on his first outing back on fibresand since that victory he could go close especially if the visor has the desired effect. David Evans is in good form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:30 Kempton: Mr Hitchens 1pt e/w 25/1 Ladbrokes Franco Is My Name looks very hard to beat however Mr Hitchens is capable on his day and won off well off a three pounds lower mark two runs back. Never sure which horse will turn up, but could easily spring another surprise and looks overpriced at 25/1.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Southwell: Hilbre Court 2pts win 12/1 & Tomintoul Star 1pt win 5/1 both Bet365 If Hilbre Court can bounce back to form here he could go very close. He has winning form over course and distance and is now a pound lower than his last victory in December. Hilbre Court seems to reserve his best for this course and its not surprising that he did not feature at either Wolverhampton or Kempton on recent outings. The run at Southwell behind Ours on the 21st January was below par, but not beaten too far in a higher grade. Tomintoul Star is lightly raced and on her only outing on fibresand just missed out earlier this month. She was hampered a couple of times and pushed wide yet still almost won. Presumably fragile and the bounce factor is a concern, but a reproduction of her last run would put her right in the shake up.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 7:10 Wolverhampton: Ella Woodcock 2pts win 5/1 Stan James Ella Woodcock ran well last time and although up in the weights and ib class looks to have a good chance to follow up now he is back in form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:05 Kempton: Kilcrea Castle 2pts win 5/1 William Hill The fancy prices have gone but Kilcrea Castle could still be worth an interest. He travelled very well on his first outing for Emma Lavelle at Ascot and that run backed up by some solid performances in Graded company in Ireland give plenty of hope. The form of the Ascot run, off a pound lower stands up well. The winner, The Sawyer went in again at Cheltenham and finished a highly repectable third in a Grade 1 at Ascot last weekend to Monets Garden. Kilcrea Castle handles the soft ground. And there is almost certain to be plenty of pace on up front and this may just allow Kilcrea Castle to come through as a closer. Emma Lavelle has a 31% strike rate with her chasers at Kempton. Plenty of dangers, however Kilcrea Castle is less exposed than most of his rivals and may have a little more to give.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 5:25 Lingfield: Abbondanza 3pts win 9/2 Stan James With all the money coming for Dalradian, Abbondanza looks a fair price based on his three course (& two distance) wins during March and May last year. There has to be a question mark over his fitness but that is a chance worth taking. And its a long way to travel for run round.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:55 Kempton: Istiqdaam 1pt e/w 20/1 Stan James Istiqdaam may be worth chancing dropping back to seven furlongs here. Not too badly handicapped and if can bounce back to form could surprise. A course winner and last victory was a defeat of Striker Torres at Wolverhampton which reads quite well. Went up for that but back down a furlong for the first time since today.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread A fairly quiet (before the storm) month. A profit of 8.4 points from 77 staked with a ROI of 10.9%. Figures for year, 1st January to 28th February 2010 Points: Staked 172 Returned 236.45 Profit 64.45 ROI 37.47% Bets: Struck 89 Profitable 20 Strike Rate 22.47%

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Wolverhampton: Grey Command 2pts win 7/1 Ladbrokes & Aflaam 1pt win 13/2 Betfred Grey Command rattled up a hat trick of wins here and although ran poorly last time out could go close again from a low draw and may take some catching. Aflaam has also been in good form and if staying this trip could be very dangerous.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Cheltenham Gold Cup 19th March: Taranis 2pts e/w 33/1 William Hill Now that we are in to March thought I would take a look at the Gold Cup. Kauto Star will be nigh on impossible to beat, but Taranis represents a sporting chance to at least place at a decent price. I thought his win in the Argento Chase was impressive. The question is what did he beat? Carruthers and Madison Du Berlais have not performed as well at Cheltenham as elsewhere, and Joe Lively may have seen better days, but Taranis could not have done it easier. Nick Scholfield was taking a pull coming up the hill. Taranis has a fair bit going for him, being trained by Paul Nicholls who has monopolised the race lately. He is a Grade One winner at Down Royal and the Festival, so goes well at Cheltenham. I think the jury is out on Denman. How well was he going before coming unstuck at Newbury? And what happens if he is taken on for the lead again? Looking further down the betting, its Imperial Commander and Cooldine. Imperial Commader's narrow defeat by Kauto Star at Haydock is the most difficult piece of form to get my head round. Before that run, I didn't think Imperial Commander stayed that far and I'm basing this bet on the basis he won't reproduce it. Cooldine although having to run in poor groung in Ireland does not strike me as having the class of a Gold Cup winner although he could improve. In summary I think Taranis could start at half these odds on the day and with doubts around many of the rivals could make the frame. There is Kauto to beat - but as they say 'never be afraid of one' !!!

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:40 Lingfield: Captain Kallis 2pts win 8/1 William Hill Captain Kallis looked a little unlucky when about to make his run at Lingfield last time. Tomino who goes well for Jimmy Quinn was second in that race, but Captain Kallis was caught behind a wall of horses. Hayley Turner keeps the ride, and stepping up a furlong could go close today.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Wolverhampton: Cardinal 2pts win 12/1 Sportingbet Cardinal shaped quite well last time out, not beaten far in the same race as Tomino and Sign of the Cross who fought out a finish at Lingfield yesterday. Cardinal got a clear run up the rail that day, whereas others did not, however it is often not the place to be so that looks a creditable performance. She is a maiden in a handicap but Cardinal has only had nine runs and with a change of trainer and if building on that last run, there is a chance she can break her duck.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:30 Wolverhampton: Sotelo 2pts win 1pt place 16/1 Stan James Sotelo may be worth an interest in this staying race. Lightly raced in this country and on the all weather he was a creditable fourth behind Hucking Hero at Lingfield in mid February when not getting a clear run. That looks reasonable form, he runs off the same mark of 63 today, and if he can build on that, he could go close at a decent price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 7:45 Kempton: Gaily Noble 2pts win 1pt place 22/1 Stan James If you take out Gaily Noble's poor run at Southwell last time, then he would surely be a much shorter price tonight. Previously at Lingfield, he only had to be pushed out to hold off the inform Hereford Boy, and Gallantry who has since gone in and is a solid yard stick was also behind. Wide draw may be a disadvantage but not a huge field. Trainer amongst the winners yesterday.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 8:45 Kempton: Little Sark 1pt win 20/1 Paddy Power & Alternative Choice 1pt win 9/1 Sporting bet Little Sark looks overpriced for this. A course and distance winner albeit in a claimer in October, and then narrowly missed out in a handicap off 54. Tonight he is off 56 but Andrew Heffernan takes off a handy five which should make Little Sark competitive. David Evans' horses are running well. Alternative Choice too looks a big price for a lightly raced sort who went close last time out.