Gingertipster Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Ante-post portfolio Mares Hurdle 23 points @ 4/1 (B365 nrnb, bog) United (23% 100/30) 7 points each way @ 16/1 (B365 nrnb, bog) Oscar Rebel (9% 10/1) That's after Whiteoak is taken out of the betting too. Those who got the good prices Quevega a few days ago have a decent bet but surely is overbet now. Still has to improve. Chomba Womba seemed a probable winner of this on the turn but did not seem to get home, it is a furlong shorter this term but I still believe she is better at 2m. United was placed in the Stayers Hurdle a couple of years ago so stays well, that was on good ground. Also excellant form on very soft. Won a mares grade 2 easily by 5lengths last time. Won grade 2 handicap off 142, beating Chief Yeoman who;s won since and Tazbar who's gone on to run well and is a lively outsider in the World Hurdle. Very genuine in a finish. Oscar Rebel is also genuine but also improving, possibly needs to. Unbeaten in three novice hurdles last term, last one on good another on soft. Second to Catch Me last time beaten easily, but that is not bad form considering it was after a three month break. With more improvement to come looks over priced at 16/1, if she was from Willie Mullins stable she'd be half that. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Prices changing very quickly on Mares Hurdle market, both prices have already gone with B365. Judging by oddschecker 4/1 and 16/1 are still available with Extrabet (if you have an account with them). Oscar is 20/1 with Hills but they still have Whiteoak in there. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 6, 2009 Author Share Posted March 6, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Ante-post Supreme Novices Hurdle Saver. 4 points @ 12/1 Michael Flips (10.5% 17/2) If AP rides him I think this one will be quite a bit shorter (previously ridden by Mark Grant). McCoy may be able to get more out of him provided the ground is not soft / heavy. Worth taking the chance on at the price. Impressive at Kempton. Already Advised 31 points @ 7/2 Cousin Vinny If you are not on now get on now 100/30 with WH O.k. Now I am not so sure that the going will be favopurable for Michael Flips so will get out of the saver bet at less than my original odds. Lay to win 4 poits @ 10.5/1 Michael Flips Suspect Massini's Maguire might go for the 2 1/2 mile handicap now but have nrnb for him anyway. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 6, 2009 Share Posted March 6, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Good luck with these Ginge, just curious but how many accounts do you have to be able to secure all the 'best prices' and what is your outlay on the festival ante post? Not sure I would be happy laying out so much before I knew what the actual going will be on the day. Value is one thing but guessing the english weather is another :lol Anyway, hope it comes off for you mate:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 6, 2009 Author Share Posted March 6, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 I've got 13 accounts with bookmakers plus Betfair. How much outlay for the festival? It's in to four figures BH, thsat's all you're getting. All of my main bets go on good-soft, which is what the ground staff are after. Michael Flips would not want it any softer which is why I got out (may get in again if I think it's quick enough). Starluck, another saver, might not want it too soft as he's all about speed. Though soft would favour the main bet of Walkon, because it puts stamina at a premium. Two of his main rivals, Starsluck and Master of Arts who is a miler on the flat, so he may be inconvenienced by soft (not staying). And the other stqayer Zaynar may have temperament problems now. Imsingingtheblues would be the only main bet I'd worry about acting on genuinely SOFT ground, good-soft is fine. Should not be too bad for the first day. Massini's Maguire may not stay 3m on Soft either but I trust Philip Hobbs to take him out if it is not in his favour (have nrnb). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 6, 2009 Author Share Posted March 6, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Here's another one: Ante-post portfolio Arkle (Saver) 3 points @ 16/1 (SJ nrnb bog) Tartak (8% 12/1) With his trainer going so well at the moment Tartak could well improve on his run at Kempton. Appears to be on the up though that race was not that competitive. Is one of the best jumpers in the field. Did not run that well at Cheltenham when there last. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 7, 2009 Share Posted March 7, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Ginge, do you have an idea who will ride Drombeag? I think he's a good e/w value and should be in the top 4, but I'd really like a good jockey on board. The ride last time was really poor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 7, 2009 Author Share Posted March 7, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 I presume Nina Carberry and JT McNamara will be on Garde Champetre and L'Ami, the same as on the 12th Dec. As (other than Liam Cooper) Drombeag's only other jockey in the past has been Robbie Power, I assume he will again take the ride. He did give Drombeag a poor ride that day, but is not usually that bad. Hopefully it was a one off. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 8, 2009 Author Share Posted March 8, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Update: 2:50 Kempton 12 points each way @ 6/1 Alberta's Run 3rd 24 points 3:25 Kempton 18 points @ 2.95/1 Osaka d'Airy 4th 12 points @ 11/4 Osaka d'Airy 30 points 4:00 Kempton 35 points @ 9/4 Pretty Star 2nd 5 points @ 10/1 That's An Idea 2 points @ 18/1 That's An Idea (Gold Heart NR) 42 points (All three main bets ended up significantly shorter but none won) Days Stakes 96 points Days Deficit 96 points 1:55 Haydock 18 points @ 6/1 Coe 2nd 12 points @ 12/1 Nenuphar Collonges 7 points @ 11/1 Opera Mundi 3 points @ 25/1 Rambling Bear 1st Return 78 points 40 points 2:40 Wincanton 38 points @ 9/4 Punjabi 3rd 38 points Days stakes 78 points, Days return 78 points, Days Profit 0 points (trouble with saver bets is sometimes you have a 25/1 winner and come away without gaining anything). 2:05 Kempton 22 points @ 5.6/1 Alfie Flits 5 points @ 5.8/1 Dee Ee Williams 5 points each way @ 13/2 Alfie Flits 4th (should have got 3rd in stewards room) 37 points 3:10 Kempton 7 points @ 13.5/1 Possol 2nd 11 points @ 12.5/1 Hold Em 4th 7 points @ 22/1 Lashkari 4 points @ 37/1 Endless Power 8 points @ 4.2/1 Big Fella Thanks 3rd 2 points @ 29/1 Nozic 39 points (Got the 1,2,3,4 right in my book, just a pity I did not quite make the winner backable) 3:45 Kempton 18 points @ 9/2 Cosmea 5 points @ 3.7/1 Cosmea 23 points 4:15 Kempton 38 points @ 2/1 Pop Ahead 3rd 5 points @ 8/1 Kew Jumper 2 points @ 22/1 Launde 45 points Days Stakes 144 points, Days Deficit 144 points 2:10 Newbury 12 points each way @ 7/1 Theophrastus 24 points 2:40 Newbury 8 points each way @ 12/1 Rapide Plasir Fell 7 points each way @ 14/1 Hope Road 3rd Return 31.5 points 30 points 3:15 Newbury 11 points @ 12/1 South bank 2nd (well backed) 23 points @ 4.4/1 Pipo De Re 3rd 8 points @ 11/1 The Speiler 42 points Days Stakes 96 points, Days Return 31.5 points, Days Deficit 64.5 points 2:35 Newbury 23 points @ 9/2 Darkness (ended up half the price) 1st Return 126.5 points 7 points @ 4.1/1 Church Island 2nd 2 points @ 18/1 I Hear Thunder 32 points 3:10 Newbury 19 points @ 6/1 Hold Em (fell) 12 points @ 10/1 Hobbs Hill 4 points @ 33/1 Mr Pointment 7 points @ 16/1 Too Forward 3 points @ 14/1 the Hollow Bottom 49 points (1:35 Aqualung non-runner) Days Stakes 81 points, Days Return 126.5 points, Days Profit 45.5 points Updates Stakes 495 points, Updates Return 236 points, Updates Deficit 259 points Total Stakes 2274 points, Total Return 2438.12 points, Total Profit 164.12 points 7.2% profit on stakes, 19/66 SR 28.8% (+ 3 ew placed) Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 9, 2009 Author Share Posted March 9, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Ante-post Portfolio Albert Bartlet Novices Hurdle 17 points @ 6/1 (Ladbropkes) Cape Tribulation (17% 5/1) Make sure you take the 6's with Laddies not Willy Hills, as there would be a massive Rule 4 with WH. Won the River Don (Grade 2 3m on soft at Donny last time) from Junior, getting 2lbs off him, by 17 lengths, with 18 lengths back to the third. Junior had been beaten in the Challow by 6 lengths. If Cape Tribulation were trained by Nicholls or Henderson he'd be favourite or at least vieing for favouritism. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcosgrove Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 I agree Ginge. I am on Cape Tribulation. I was at an evening with Phil Kinsella last week and he was very confident of a big run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 9, 2009 Author Share Posted March 9, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 William Hill Chase 11 points @ 12/1 (Corals) Patsy Hall (11% 8/1) 12 points @ 9/1 (B365) Possol (12.5% 7/1) 9 points @ 14/1 Cailin Ailin (9.5% 10/1) There are three outsiders who are good value too, will be back if and when my prices are taken. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 9, 2009 Author Share Posted March 9, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 William Hill Chase 11 points @ 12/1 (Corals) Patsy Hall (11% 8/1) 12 points @ 9/1 (B365) Possol (12.5% 7/1) 9 points @ 14/1 Cailin Ailin (9.5% 10/1) There are three outsiders who are good value too, will be back if and when my prices are taken. Ginge Additions 7 points @ 20/1 (WH or VC) Nenuphar Collonges (7.25% 13/1) 4 points @ 41/1 Lacdoudal (4.25% 22/1) 2 points @ 27/1 Simon (5.25% 18/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 9, 2009 Author Share Posted March 9, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Champion Hurdle Already Advised 10 points @ 16/1 Celestial Halo 9 points @ 50/1 Crack Away Jack 5 points @ 29/1 Ashkazar 15 points @ 1.72/1 Binocular Addition 21 points @ 15/8 (PP) Binocular (45% 6/5) If you have not had a bet yet, Binocular is an outstanding price at 15/8. It's 10% bigger than my price to beat. That is the best value bet I have ever put up on here. Had I not had other bets on the race I'd be having 45 points on him. As long as it is not heavy Binocular should be o.k. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 9, 2009 Author Share Posted March 9, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Don't know if I am just running away from the rumours of Cousin Vinny's trip over. But I make all four favourites value. So savers: 1:30 Cheltenham 4 points @ 11/1 Kempes (11.5% 15/2) 4 points @ 12.5/1 Go Native (10.5% 17/2) 7 points @ 6/1 Torphichon (15.25% 11/2) Already Advised 31 points @ 7/2 Cousin Vinny Backed and then laid Michael Flips to win nowt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 i am surprised you make Binocular so short at 6/5 Ginge, there are 23 runners & you make it a 45% chance. With Celestial Halo, Osana in the race i just think they are 2 that can exploit any problems with the expected easy ground. My worry is the lack of a recent run for Hendersons horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 9, 2009 Share Posted March 9, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Very close to 2/1 now on the exchanges and few bookies going 15/8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 10, 2009 Author Share Posted March 10, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 If it were good-soft I'd make Binocular odds on, around a 56% 4/5 chance Bowles. Don't really see the long absence as a worry. Binocular is not very big and should not take much getting fit. More of a worry could be if he sweats up (does get on toes). I hope you are right with Celestial Halo as that would be a better result for me. Though not as good as Crack Away Jack. Think there is an element of people getting on the band wagon with his supposed stamina limitations. Looking at last years Supreme (on similar going); was outstayed by Captain Cee Bee, but pulled right away from the others including Snap Tie. So was not stopping. Now is a year older and stronger. Heavy going would be against him but should not be that bad. Celestial Halo has a big defecit to claw back. Osana was not even good enough to beat a substandared Champion last year. Unless he's improved (possible) difficult to see him good enough. I make that pair 7.5% 13/1 joint second favs. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 10, 2009 Author Share Posted March 10, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Grand National 8 points @ 21/1 Comply Or Die (7.75% 12/1) Well I backed him then laid him, now i'm backing him again. Thought Comply Or Die ran a fine National trial today. In with a chance until the turn, at a trip short of his best. Garde Champetre also ran a fine Grand National trial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 10, 2009 Author Share Posted March 10, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 National 6 points @ 25/1 Garde Champetre (5.75% 16/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 10, 2009 Author Share Posted March 10, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 3:20 Cheltenham Already got 8 points each way @ 16/1 Well Chief in the main market Now: Betting Without Master Minded 12 points @ 5/1 Well Chief (20% 4/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 11, 2009 Author Share Posted March 11, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:05 Cheltenham 21 points @ 4.7/1 Diamond Harry (21.5% 7/2) 2 points @ 139/1 Quartetto (1.5% 66/1) 6 points @ 20/1 Quwetwo (6.25% 15/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 11, 2009 Author Share Posted March 11, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:40 Cheltenham Already Advised: 10 points at 43/1 Ring The Boss 18 points @ 6/1 Cooldine 5 points @ 16/1 Massini's Maguire Now: another: 7 points @ 12/1 Massini's Maguire (12% 15/2) 3 points @ 13/1 Killyglen (9.5% 10/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 11, 2009 Author Share Posted March 11, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 3:20 Cheltenham Already got 8 points each way @ 16/1 Well Chief in the main market Now: Betting Without Master Minded 12 points @ 5/1 Well Chief (20% 4/1) Two more saver bets "Without Master Minded". 6 points @ 13/2 Briarius 3 points @ 16/1 Santa's Son Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 11, 2009 Author Share Posted March 11, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Santa's Son with Stan James, Briarius with Corals. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 11, 2009 Author Share Posted March 11, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Coral Cup 14 points @ 15/2 (SJ) The Polomoche (14% 6/1) 12 points @ 10/1 (WH) Pause And Clause (11.5% 15/2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 11, 2009 Author Share Posted March 11, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 5:15 Cheltenham 15 points @ 7/1 (SJ) Dunguib (15% 11/2) 9 points @ 14/1 (WH) Shinrock Paddy (9% 10/1) 4 points @ 33/1 Morning Supreme (4.5% 22/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 11, 2009 Author Share Posted March 11, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 1:30 Cheltenham 11 points @ 9/1 Coe (11% 8/1) 8 points @ 16/1 Tricky Trickster (7.75% 12/1) 13 points @ 15/2 Kornati Kid (13.25% 13/2) 3 points @ 12/1 Niche Market (10% 9/1) Want to be against the favourite Can't Buy Time as I can't see it staying. Coe is not the ideal type for an amateur. Needs pushing along and sometimes does not jump well. But is unexposed and certain to stay. Tricky Trickster has run well twice this year when the stable had been in poor form. If he stays will be in with a shout. Backed Niche Market when it won at 43/1 at Ascot. Jumps exceptionally well, genuine and run well in this last year. Kornati Kid looks to be crying out for this trip and also jumps well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 11, 2009 Author Share Posted March 11, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Dunguib was very impressive in his bumper along with many other Irish horses. However, unlike some has not had the hype of others. Backed Shinrock Paddy at Cheltenham. Has an unconventional jockey but he got a fine turn of foot out of him here. Morning Supreme is the fourth or fifth string for W.Mullins and has been dismissed by the bookies because of that. Pause For Clause has been the talk of my local pubs. I live a mile from Emma Lavelle. The Polomoche looks well handicapped. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 11, 2009 Author Share Posted March 11, 2009 Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Have said why I think Well Chief is a good bet. Briarius might be better right handed but is unexposed. Proved capable of being held up last time over a trip too far (King George). Runs well fresh. Santa's Son is a front runner which is a worry here with so many front runners in the race. However, is another very much unexposed horse at a decent price. Won with any amount in hand over Christmas. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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