Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09

[billy the punter]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Great couple of days Ginge :ok

[allhigh]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 GINGE.......for the MRS. i keep throwing sticks further and further out, but she keeps making it back.!:wall

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:24 Fontwell 18 points @ 6/1 (Paddy Power) Cullahil reasons later / in morning / never

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 3:15 Fontwell 27 points @ 100/30 Double Dizzy Saw this run at Newbury and thought it will do better with stronger handling. Has not found much off the bridle for conditionals of late. stable in good form. Travells well so trip should not be a problem. Nicholls fav is the one to beat, might save on it later. The others are all of either poor temperament, in poor form or both. Soleil Fix runs well here / when racing prominently. PU when held up last time. Trouble is there are three others that might take him on for the lead here. Might give in. Muhtenbar is still a maiden after umpteen attempts. Nation State has lost his way this season. Look out for a market move. has stable jockey aboard which is usually significant with this yard. Stable companion Idris has a claimer on board. Ran with no encouragement for a return to form on reappearance, first time out for a long time. Pretty Star lost her way with Kingy last term, now with Venettia but showed little on reappearance. Is very well handicapped on best form and a market move could fourtell a good run for a stable very much in form. Present Oriented also seems to have lost his way. Jumps poorly these days and is another possibly best able to dominate (front running).

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:45 Fontwell (not 2:24) Analysis I rate the chances of Honour High, Cullahil, Little Schilling and Brenin Cwmtudu within 3% of each other. So with Cullahil the biggest priced of them must be backed. The Dark Lord 13/1 won a chase last time beating Cool Roxy. Is fairly weighted on his best hurdle form of a few years ago. Is a better hurdler than chaser. Questionable whether he can show that though at the age of 11. Stable in form. 10/1 Cool Roxy 15/1 is a Fakenham specialist, better known these days as a chaser but still capable of good hurdle form. 3m3f may be a touch too far in a truly run race. can front run but Tora Bora will probably lead. Looks exposed. 12/1 Honour High's 11/2 Lady Herries stable usually improves their horses for the run. Encouraging 4th on reappearance. Stays well. 9/2 Cullahil 9/2 ran really well at Cheltenham, staying on 4th. Another 3f should suit, stable in form and has the best conditional in the country on board. 4/1 Tora Bora 20/1 generally sulks these days but can run well if able to lead. Cool roxy might take him on but he will not want a test at the trip. So an easy lead is possible. However others probably have more improvement in them. 15/1 Go Amwell 28/1 will probably need this first run back. 22/1 Little schilling 9/2 is a prolific winner over hurdles and fences this season. those have been against weaker opposition and primarily out of form horses. This by far his sternest test but is still improving from a stable in excellant form. 7/2 Brenin Cwmtudu 9/2 won well last time. Has a turn of foot but is going up in trip and this course does not often favour those dropped out. Asking a lot of his claimer rider but is improving and difficult for the handicapper to assess. 7/2 Jockser 50/1 is very well handicapped on his very best form but has not shown it in a very long time. No real form at all last season and best watched on reappearance, unless a market move comes for him. 33/1 Wildbach 22/1 is having its first run for an excellant small trainer, well capable of improving them (needs to), S. West. Has had two runs for Mrs Young winning the first. Before that raced in Germany. Has run well on soft, but do you think he acts on very soft? July 20th Racing Post comment "Held up, 5th entering pond, swam slowly, ran on from 3 out...took second last". Stays 2 1/2 miles but 3m3f an unknown. Is bred to get it, by Law Society (2nd Derby) out of a Lomitas (top 1m4f German horse) mare. 16/1 Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 3:15 Fontwell Continued. (saver) 17 points @ 1.66/1 Oracle Des mottes

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 1:15 Fontwell 6 points each way @ 16/1 (B365) Morning Heights There are a couple of hurdling debutants here who could be anything. But if they do not jump well and the other market leader does not act on the ground...... I make the selection 4th fav so at 16/1 looks a good each way bet. Ground must be a worry but worth taking a chance on, so too staying the trip. But Emma's novices usually improve with racing.... Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 It couldn't last! Backed Culahil at 6/1 the night before with Paddy's, came in to 3/1. Nowhere. Backed Double Dizzy at 100/30 the night before on Betfair, came in to 7/4. Nowhere. At least by getting value prices I know profit will come. The races in question did not go as I thought either. In the 2:45 the confirmed front-runner Tora Bora (who was sure to stay) declared a non-runner 10 mins before the off. Leaving Cool Roxy (a doubtful stayer) to make the running at a slowish pace. Cullahil seemed outpaced on the turn for home. The 3:15 I had worked out there were three who ran their best races from the front. Likely to be a fast pace taking each other on, favouring those held up. What happened? One front runner fell at the first, then carried out another at the 4th, leaving the sole remaining one his own way out front. At least I did mention Pretty Star as one to note for a market move, and was well backed. Oh well, :\ can't win them all.:sad Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:05 Kempton 15 points each way @ 5/1 Snap Tie (20% 4/1) 2:40 Kempton 5 points each way @ 20/1 Snoopy Loopy (6.25% 15/1) 9 points each way @ 17/2 Air Force One (11.5% 15/2)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:40 Kempton With the Pipe and Twister yards in such atrocious form I want to be against Our Vic, Tamarinbleu and imperial Commander today. Missed the 6/4 about the favourite so will have to go for an each way selection(s). Of the others Voy Por is the obvious one on form but the stamina doubt makes 4/1 no free win bet. Alberta's Run has his ground but ran poorly both starts this term. Briarius is a doubtful stayer, still a novice, has a lot of improvement to make and has other front runners to take him on today. Mont Misere is outclassed. So that leaves Air Force One, stays, acts on the ground, goes well right handed, jumps well, has no question marks other than whether he is good enough? Is still improving and if the fav does run below form..... and... Snoopy Loopy, flattered in the Betfair but is as consistent as they come, genuine, will be staying on. Just a doubt as to his effectiveness on a sharp track on good ground. But at 20/1 is worth chancing. Might be able to benefit from others running poorly again. Kauto Star. Seemed to be just nigggled along when making that bad mistake 3 out in the Betfair. Would probably have won without running to form. Whether the injury sustained at Ascot has had an effect? Not been the same since. Basically a very good jumper who makes the odd howler in the home straight. I have a theory he hears the crowd and would benefit from ear plugs. Always seems to have ears pricked when blundering. Anyway despite those questions about his ability to run to form, fact is he does not have to. With form some way clear of his rivals. 6/4 looked a good price but I have missed it. therefore each way bets on both Air Force One and Snoopy Loopy are the bets. 2:05 Kempton This race depends a lot on the pace of the race. No front runner means Punjabi may need to make his own running. If he does not go quick enough he could be outspeeded on this sharp track on good ground. Scrambled home in a slowly run race at Wehterby last time on a soft surface. Had Blue Bajan trying to give him a head start there. Although the going may suit Turnell's horse better today. Can't see the likely pace helping him again today. Leslingtaylor comes here after a chasing campaign, has the going in his favour but is not good enough. Straw Bear's chasing career has never really got started. Nowhere near his hurdle form. Is not really built for that job. If this is a tactical battle has the right man for the job on board. But I wonder if he is quite at his best on good ground. Has had hoof problems. Afsoun comes back from a fall over the bigger obstacles last time when leading; usually held up. Has bags of ability but poor temperament. Harchibald likewise, seemed to give this away last year. Although he gets his ground today a false pace won't help and trainer is in comparatively poor form too. Pierrot Lunaire looked potentially the right sort for a sharp test like this after running away with the Top Novices Hurdle at Aintree from Blue Bajan. But how he will be after a crashing fall on reappearance is the doubt here. Needs to improve to beet a spot on Punjabi. Snap Tie beet Katchit on his first start of the season here. That race was on similar going to today and truly run. Katchit has let the form down since, however the third over 9 lengths back Alph ran a good enough race behind Chomba Womba at Ascot. I will take a chance on the pace of the race not hindering Snap Tie too much. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:05 Chepstow 18 points @ 6/1 (WH) Mon Mome

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 3:15 Kempton 23 points @ 9/2 Takeroc (23% 100/30)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:05 Chepstow Contd. 11 points @ 11/1 Halcon Genelardais (11% 8/1) (an extra) 4 points @ 6.6/1 Mon Mome (18% 9/2) 3 points @ 14/1 Micko De Beauchene (9% 10/1) 3 points @ 17/1 Gypsy George (7.5% 13/1) 2 points @ 20/1 Kings Euro (6.5% 15/1) 3:15 Kempton Cotd. 2 points @ 20/1 Lord Henry (7% 14/1) 2 points @ 33/1 Fieppes Shuffle (5% 20/1)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 3:15 Sandown analysis There looks to be plenty of pace in this race. Ashleybrook, Petit Robin, Fieppes Shuffle and Lord Henry are normally front runners and Pablo Du Charmil also races prominently / tracks pace. There is a distinct possibility of some going off at too fast a pace or sulking if not allowed the lead. Judging by the times of races yesterday the ground is firmer than the official. I'd put it at good, good-firm in places. Before I looked at the form I was quite keen on Petit Robin. Improving and potentially top class. Won with any amount in hand in a handicap at Newbury. But having front run in all his last three wins and good-firm being an unknown, I've marked him down. Ashley Brook is a genuine horse who is hard to get fit because of numerous injury problems. Won well at Exeter first time up (good record fresh) before disappointing soon afterwards in the Paddy Power. Does act on good but in some ways I hope he does not take part on this ground. Seems to run his best races from the front and may not be able to do so today. Pablo Du Charmil also has a cracking record fresh and won in good style at Cheltenham. However, he rarely goes on after his first effort and his stable are in awful form. Usually a prominent runner but can be held up. Goes well on this surface. Lord Henry they tried to hold up to get the trip last time and didn't(2 1/2 miles) and he seemed to resent it. Ran well at Ascot before that but pulled his way in to the lead before settling. Might need the lead but if he does get it has a chance at a big price, from a stable in form. Fieppes Shuffle, Twist Magic and Takeroc ran in the Tingle Creek. Fieppes Shuffle made an uncharacteristic error and came down at the first. His third behind Andreas and Lord Henry at Sandown last term on similar going gives him a chance here at a massive price. Likes to lead, as he showed when jumping riderless in front last time. Heard from connections today and they are hopeful of a good run. Twist Magic was going well when taking a crashing fall in the Tingle Creek, probably going better than Takeroc. But he often does travel well before finding little. May be that is because he struggles to stay 2m on a soft surface. But his best two runs have been on a soft surface. How the fall will effect his confidence is questionable. I would say had he stood up he'd have finished with the runner up. Not much ahead of Takeroc who is at a much bigger price. Takeroc goes so well on good going I will be surprised if he does not act on firmer. Has not always found as much under pressure but the expected strong pace should suit his waiting tactics. Without so many front runners I would have gone for Lord Henry and Fieppes Shuffle as the main bets (at the prices). But as it is Takeroc gets the main stake with savers on the other two. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:05 Chepstow analysis Halcon Genelardais only gets his ground and trip once a year. is better here than any other race. Over priced. Joe Lively won a poor race last time and looks harshly handicapped. Miko De Beauchene ran encouragingly over hurdles on reappearance, up there before lack of fitness told late on. Is unexposed as a long distance chaser and looks over priced today. Notre Pere won well in Ireland, improving but must do so again. Price looks a bit short but keep an eye on him because he is an ideal type for the Grand National. Always Waining is probably better on a sound surface and may not stay. Nenuphar Collonges runs asthough this trip will improve him. Has not always looked straightforward (lazy) but does run on. May be able to get a better price in running. Cornish Sett won last time but is inconsistent and doubtful stayer. Mon Mome comes from a stable in great form, won last time with first two some way clear at Cheltenham (3m1f). Stays very well and should be even better over this distance. Run well in this before. Big chance, overpriced. Darkness ran well first time up for a long time but Charlie Egerton's horses never lack for fitness. Well handicapped and runs asthough will be suited by this trip but often makes mistakes and sometimes does not look straightforward in temperament. Glasker Mill has also looked a bit suspect at times. Trainer has shown signs of a return to form recently. Excuses last time, could improve. High Chimes seemed to stay on well in the Hennessey but can take a pull so is not sure to stay. If settling well could run well. Officer De Reserve was carried out last time. Is Nicholls representitive and does have a chance. But not certain to stay and looks too short a price. Verasi often jumps poorly and seems of poor temperament. Seemingly out of form but reasonably handicapped if putting it all in. Beat The Boys ran well last time behind Joe Lively but stable now in poor form. Gypsy George could well be able to improve at this trip. Good record when coming over from Ireland. Won hurdle staying on last time. Possibly a little over priced. Kings Euro comes from a stable in cracking form, don't worry about this being first time out. One to keep an eye on for the Grand national. Could well improve at the trip and jumps well. Over priced. Sherwoods Folley ran a poor race on reappearance, no encouragement for this. Another Rum stays but not good enough.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 33/1 winner but a loss on the day. :sadThat's what you get from savers, well I hadn't better aftertime.;) Ginge

[bowles10]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 congrats on the 33/1 winner unlucky mate on the overall outcome!

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 The Season So Far 1:35 Ascot 20p @ 4/1 Font 15p @ 7/1 Blue Bajan 3^rd6p @ 16/1 Alsaada 7p @ 16/1 County Zen 5p @ 20/1 Laredo Sound 5p @ 25/1 Sentry Duty 1^st Return 130 points 4p @ 33/1 I Have Dreamed 62 points 2:30 Down Royal 23p @ 100/30 The Listener 7p @ 14/1 Knight Legend 3^rd-30 points 3:35 Wetherby 35p @ 3/1 State Of Play 1^st Return 140 points 18p @ 9/2 Ollie Magern 2^nd17p @ 6/1 Snoopy Loopy 3^rd70 points Stakes 162 p, Return 270 p, Profit 108 p. (Nice start with a 25/1 individual winner but then......) 12:50 Cheltenham 35p @ 2.45/1 Giorgio Quercus (came right in to 7/4 going well before found nowt) 10p @ 16.5/1 Love And Glory -45 points 1:25 Cheltenham 13p @ 9/1 Dashing George (and then it got worse) 8p @ 1.8/1 Big Fella Thanks 2^nd -21 points 2:00 Cheltenham 18p @ 6/1 Halcon genelardais 2^nd8p @ 4/1 Opera Mundi (and worse) 11p @ 9/1 Karanja 3p @ 13/1 Simon -40 points 2:35 Cheltenham 13p @ 8/1 Barber Shop 2^nd10p @ 12/1 Bible Lord (and worse) 9p @ 15/1 Ouzbeck 6p @ 29/1 Stan 3p @ 74/1 Mister McGoldrick 2p @ 28/1 Ashley Brook -43 points Days Stakes 149p, Return 0p, Deficit 149p (Unfortunately did not put my sunday bets up on the thread, they are elsewhere on PL. So hope I am not after timing by saying I had two double figure priced winners. But they don't count here!! So back to normal....) 3:30 Wincanton 20p @ 11/2 Minella Tipperary (said neither were good jumpers, guess what happened) 10p @ 11.5/1 Freeline Fury -30 points Days Stakes 30p, Return 0p, Deficit 30p 1:05 Haydock 20p @ 5/1 Star De mohaison 12p @ 9/1 Gunner Jack 9p @ 10/1 Oberon Moon 8p @ 12/1 Russian Tiger 4p @ 25/1 Ungaro 2p @ 33/1 Wild Cane Ridge -55 points 1:20 Ascot 13p each way @ 7/1 Andreas -26 points 1:55 Ascot 28p @ 3.3/1 Chomba Womba 1^st Return 120.4p 28 points 2:15 Haydock 20p each way @ 7/2 Exotic Dancer (the each way certainty (2 places) finished 3^rd) -40 points 3:05 Haydock 30p @ 3.4/1 Oslot 13p @ 13/1 The Hairy Lemon -43 points 2:45 Haydock 11p @ 10/1 Possol 1^st return 121p 9p @ 10/1 Gold Medalist 8p @ 12/1 Glasker mill 8p @ 12/1 Bills Echo 4p @ 25/1 Darkness 3^rd40 points Days Stakes 232 p, Days Return 241.4 p, Days Profit 9.4 p (Wow, Profit at last) (Lingfield three races on flat thread) 1:40 Aintree 14p @ 8.3/1 Regal heights 8p @ 100/30 Gwanako (both usually good jumpers, failed to get round) -22 points 2:50 Aintree 22p @ 5/1 Mr Pointment 2^nd 5p @ 8/1 Idle talk 5p @ 8.8/1 Gungadu 9p @ 7.8/1 Idle Talk -41 points Days Stakes 63 p, return 0 p, Deficit 63 p 12:55 Newbury 14p @ 8.6/1 Isn't That Lucky 2^nd (isn't it) -14 points 2:05 Newbury 14p @ 7.8/1 Hold Em 3^rd25p @ 4/1 Tartak 2^nd (even luckier) -39 points 2:40 Newbury 20p @ 5.2/1 Double Dizzy 3^rd13p @ 9/1 High Oscar 7p @ 18/1 Pepsyrock (backed in to 5/1 fav, nowhere) 3p @ 22/1 Chiaro 2^nd (arrrrrrrr!) 6p @ 7.4/1 Briery fox -49 points Days Stakes 102 p, Return 0 p, Deficit 102 p (Just seen I did not put my Hennessy bets up, don't know what I was doing) 1:50 Wetherby 52 points @ 10/11 Punjabi 1^st Return 99.27p (Rare odds-on bet) 3:05 Sandown 18p @ 11/2 Blue Shark 18p @ 11/2 Tchico Polos (These two beaten on the line by two necks) 9p @ 10/1 Spear Thistle 2^nd 6p @ 16/1 Five Dream 3^rd -51 points 3:35 Sandown 9p @ 10/1 Nine De Sivola 8p @ 12/1 Tana River 8p @ 12/1 Sporting rebel 6p @ 18/1 Leading Authority -31 points Days Stakes 134 p, Return 99.27 p, Deficit 34.73 p At this point I was -261.33 points down. Now for the fightback 1:55 Cheltenham 18p @ 8/1 Mon Mome 1^st Return 162p 18 points Days Stakes 18 p, Return 162 p, Profit 144 p (Saturdays Cheltenham bets void, abandoned) 12:50 Newbury 29p @ 3/1 Gone For One 1^st Return 116p 13p @ 8/1 Bob Bob Bobbin 42 points Days Stakes 42 p, Return 116 p, Profit 74 p 1:55 Ascot 7p each way @ 20/1 Medermit 1^st Return 182p 14 points 3:05 Ascot 19p @ 11/2 Something Wells 15p @ 7/1 Master Medic 1^st Return 120p 5p @ 27/1 Laoch Dubh 39 points Days Stakes 53 p, Returns 302 p, Profit 249 p 1:05 Ascot 12p @ 11.5/1 Erics Charm 9p @ 16/1 Out Of The Black 6p @ 28/1 Lysander 4p @ 43/1 Niche Market 1^st Return 176p 5p @ 7/1 Alderburn 3^rd36 points 1;40 Ascot 20p @ 11/2 Chomba Womba 3^rd-20 points 2:10 Ascot 26p @ 7/2 Punchestowns 1^st Return 117p 6p @ 16/1 One Gulp 32 points 2:45 Ascot 11p each way @ 6/1 Aigle D'Or -22 points Days Stakes 110 p, Return 293 p, Profit 183 p 1:15 Fontwell 6p each way @ 16/1 Morning Heights (might be one for handicaps, not novices, settled out the back...) -12 points 2:45 Fontwell 18p @ 6/1 Cullahil (in to 3/1 fav; the front runner was a 25/1 non-runner, slow pace and outpaced 3 out, 4th) -18 points 3:15 Fontwell 27p @ 100/30 Double Dizzy (hold up horse came in to 13/8 fav; had worked out three need to lead front runners, one falls at the first, carries out another at the fourth, leaving the sole remaining front runner to slow the pace down) 17p @ 1.66/1 Oracles Des Mottes 3^rd-44 points Days Stakes 74 p, Return 0 p, Deficit 74 p 2:05 Kempton 15p each way @ 5/1 Snap Tie 2^nd Return 33.75p 30 points 2:40 Kempton 5 points each way @ 20/1 Snoopy Loopy 9 points each way @ 17/1 Air force One -28 points (Should have got up earlier to take the 6/4 Kauto Star. Or more likely have taken the 7/2 about him winning by 4 lengths or more with a saver on him to win by under 4 lengths.) Days Stakes 58 p, Return 33.75 p, Deficit 24.25 p 2:05 Chepstow 18p @ 6/1 Mon Mome 4p @ 6.6/1 Mon Mome 11p @ 11/1 Halcon Genalardais 3^rd3p @ 14/1 Miko De Beauchene 3p @ 17/1 Gypsey George 2p @ 20/1 Kings Euro (Kings Euro jumped left, hampered Mon Mome who made a bad error and hampered Miko De Beauchene who unseated, 3 of mine out in one go) -41 points 3:15 Kempton 23p @ 9/2 Takeroc 2p @ 20/1 Lord Henry 2p @ 33/1 Fieppes Shuffle 1^st Return 68p (Flipper did me proud, am just regretting not making the two outsiders as the main bets, just concerned there was too much pace. Though I did have another small bet (sorry after timing) late in the afternoon when I could see a course pace bias working out) 27 points Days Stakes 68 p, Return 68 p Profit 0 p Total stakes 1295 points, Total Returns 1585.42 points, Total Profit 290.42 points 22.43% profit on stakes 12/37 Strike Rate 32.43% (+ 1 each way @ 5/1) Average Stake 35 points per race Individual winners 25/1, 3/1, 100/30, 10/1, 10/11, 8/1, 3/1, 20/1, 7/1, 43/1, 7/2, 33/1. Average priced individual winner (194.3) 16.19% Between 5/1 and 11/2. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Taking a bit of a risk in putting this up when they are still betting to 132% but this looks too big to risk losing the price. 1:05 Cheltenham tomorrow 12 points @ 14/1 Noir Et Vert (11.5% 15/2) Analysis later

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:45 Cheltenham tomorrow 17 points @ 6.4/1 Don't Push It (17% 5/1) Analysis later

[bowles10]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 ginge, thanks for putting up the latest figures etc, i make the profit about 228pts? going well though mate :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Will have a look at the totals later Bowles thanks. 2:10 Cheltenham 10 points @ 6/1 Three Mirrors (18.75% 9/2) 9 points @ (the biggest early price tomorrow morning) Three Mirrors 7 points @ 17/1 Il Duce (7.25% 13/1) 5 points @ 31/1 Yes Sir (5% 20/1) It is possible that Three mirrors might be Pricewise tomorrow. With more money queuing up to be backed / laid on him than anything else. So hope the split stake is allowed. Analysis later. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Bowles, I have been over my results twice and can't find why you make it less. Where was the discrepancy? Is it my list of resullts or did you go over all the bets individually? If so you might have included some abandoned racing or some "system bets" which were not counted, as I said at the time. Ginge In fact I could see one mistake: The 18 points @ 8/1 on Mon Mome returned 162 points not 152 as I originally had. So have upped the returns and profit by 10 points.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:45 Cheltenham contd. 13 points @ 8/1 Tazbar (13.5% 13/2) 3 points @ 12/1 Blue Shark (10.5% 17/2) Have made Blue Shark the saver because he is very difficult to work out.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 back to business Just seen I have not put my other bets up for the 1:05 so 1:05 Cheltenham contd. 12 points @ 10/1 Rambling Minster (12% 15/2) 7 points (half a bet) @ 8.4/1 Merigo (14% 6/1)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Analysis 1:05 Cheltenham Noir Et Vert was well backed here on reappearance here when well below form (dropped 2lbs since). However, stable is in much better form now. Ran very well to be 4^th in the Kim Muir over 4m. This trip should be fine and goes on most ground conditions. Rambling Minster was possibly inconvenienced last time by coming from rear in a race which did not suit such tactics. King Harald plus a couple of others who like to be up there should ensure a good enough pace this time. Has run well on left and right handed courses and was 10^th in the Pertemps here way back. Winner on good and very soft. Merigo won on very soft last time but has won well on good too. The step up in trip will help his stamina come in to play. Has a good win – run ratio. Did have a hard race but if over that could go well. Alexanderthegreat is the big danger, deserves to be favourite but just a touch too short at the moment. Ran on well after a bad blunder here last time over 2m5f but goes well at Cheltenham where he has won at 3m1f on good. Stable in good form and has the best claimer on board. Character Building is the other one with a good chance. Seemed to run in snatches last time and may not have the best of temperaments these days. Though has at times looked capable of better. Has run well on good going here in the 4 miler. Most of his form is on soft. Le Burf and Rimsky are interesting outsiders for opposite reasons. Le burf is a doubtful stayer who if getting 3m2f110yds has a shout, big IF. And Rimsky has been campaigned over shorter distances of late. Has better form over this trip and further. However, he is a moody character and the stable are well and truly out of form. My100% book is: Alexanderthegreat 5/1, Merigo 6/1, Character Building 13/2, Rambling Minster 15/2, Noir Et Vert 15/2, Gaelic Gift 15/1, Nor Nor East 22/1, King Harald 28/1, Gaora Lane 22/1, Rimsky 25/1, L'Aventure 25/1, Le Burf 33/1, Openide 60/1, Strong Coffee 66/1. 2:10 Cheltenham Three Mirrors ran a very encouraging race in the Paddy power; had seemed much better suited by a sounder surface, good-soft is o.k. Best Came from further back than those that beat him (5^th). With Yes Sir, Pablo Du Charmil and Hobbs Hill in the race, this should be truly run. Runs well here (Festival winner) and stable is now in great form too. My Petra was 2^nd in the Grand Annual (2 miles) here. Has run well at Ascot this term in two races that did not test her stamina (also did not jump well on first occasion). 2M5f may stretch her around here. Stable in form and improving, big chance if staying the trip / jumping well. Hold Em is consistent but does not seem to be improving. The thing that makes his chance is Rys Flint, in my opinion the best 7lb claimer around. Worth a few pounds at least. Private Be is also consistent but is possibly exposed now. Good record here though and may well be placed. Hobbs Hill looked a smashing prospect prior to smashing through one at Kempton. Was a bold jumping front runner. If his confidence is not shot to pieces can run well. Stable have a good record first time out. Been given plenty of weight but looked to have further improvement in him. Oslot did not seem to find a great deal at either Aintree or Ascot and I suspect his temperament. Il Duce has a poor win-run ratio, does not run very well anywhere else these days but seems to love it here. 4^th in the Paddy Power. Probably is exposed now but worth taking a chance on at the price. Often gets outpaced but stays on up the hill. Yes Sir is interesting. Has a good record on good or firmer and if it dries up could run well at a massive price. Jumps better (not great but better) off of a sound surface. If he can keep ahead of Patman Du Charmil and possibly Hobbs Hill can surprise a few. My 100% Book. Three Mirrors 9/2, My Petra 6/1, Hold Em 7/1, Private Be 15/2, Hobbs Hill 9/1, Oslot 10/1, Il Duce 13/1, Yes Sir 20/1, Fier Normand 22/1, Too Forward 33/1, Stan 40/1, The Hairy Lemon 66/1, Patman Du Charmil 100/1, Lidjo De Rouge 500/1 Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:45 Cheltenham Analysis Ballydub should be the favourite in this but is a little too short (imo). Second to Punchestowns here, clear of the rest. Then won eased down at Newbury. Goes up a stone from that run but that may not stop him. Those two races were on soft or very soft ground. Not the best of jumpers yet. Don't Push It last time out ran his best race for some time, proving he stays the trip. Runs well at Cheltenham (almost beat Denman here once). If he can maintain the improvement is well weighted on chase form. Has more speed than most of these so the better going / faster pace should not be a problem. Big Buck's is poorly handicapped on his hurdle form, fairly on chase form. There is a doubt as to whether he will be as good a hurdler, being built for fences. Is improving though. Another possible doubt is the going, if it dries out, most of his form is on softer. This might be used as a confidence booster rather than winning opportunity after his fall in the Hennessy. Tazbar was considered a top class prospect by the trainer last term. Runs as though this trip will suit, ran well first time back over 2 ½ miles but raised 5lbs for that. Acts on the ground and if acting on the track has a decent chance. Blue Shark is difficult to judge. Well backed on reappearance after a very long absence. Beat an outstanding field in the Finale Hurdle of 2005. On that form is thrown in at the weights. Has raced at 2m previously, but is by a staying sire out of a mare who has produced stayers. Going might be a doubt, raced only on a soft surface. Ringaroses is a lively outsider. Seemed to be taken around the outside rail last time at Newbury in an apparent attempt to find better ground. Then after travelling o.k. to the turn, was pulled up in a matter of strides. Better than that suggested and this sounder surface will help. Signs of a return to form for the yard in recently too. May have more to come at this trip being out of a Stayers Hurdle winner. My 100% book is: Ballydub 5/2, Don't Push It 5/1, Big Buck's 6/1, Tazbar 13/2, Blue Shark 17/2, Ringaroses 20/1, Pennek 20/1, Tot Of The Knar 25/1, Buena Vista 66/1, Tisfreetdream 66/1, Jug Of Punch 2000/1 Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Todays Results New Years Resolution To do my results more often. 1:05 Cheltenham 12p @ 14/1 Noir Et Vert 12p @ 10/1 Rambling Minster 1^st Return 132p 7p @ 8.4/1 Merigo 31 points 2:10 Cheltenham 19p @ 6/1 Three Mirrors 7p @ 17/1 Il Duce 5p @ 31/1 Yes Sir -33 points 2:45 Cheltenham 17p @ 6.4/1 Don't Push It 2^nd13p @ 8/1 Tazbar 3p @ 12/1 Blue Shark -31 points Days Stakes 95 points, Days Return 132 points, Days Profit 37 points Total stakes 1390 points, Total Returns 1717.42 points, Total Profit 327.42 points 23.55% profit on stakes 13/40 Strike Rate 32.5% (+ 1 each way @ 5/1) Average Stake 34.75 points per race Individual winners 25/1, 3/1, 100/30, 10/1, 10/11, 8/1, 3/1, 20/1, 7/1, 43/1, 7/2, 33/1, 10/1. Average priced individual winner (203.4) 15.64% Between 5/1 and 11/2. Ginge

[fintron]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Ginge, I know you back horses that are offered at prices greater than your book as these represent value. If you flip the coin so to speak, do you ever lay horses that are shorter than your tissue prices and are poor value? In the long run I expect this would be a profitable strategy too?

[Fatz]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09

Bowles, I have been over my results twice and can't find why you make it less. Where was the discrepancy? Is it my list of resullts or did you go over all the bets individually? If so you might have included some abandoned racing or some "system bets" which were not counted, as I said at the time. Ginge

Wasn't Tidal Bay a 35pt bet on 6th December Ginge as that one isn't included in the profit/loss ? Only other discrepency that I could find was that Snap Tie should have returned 33.75pts instead of 30pts (7 ran so EW terms 1/4 odds 1,2). Anyway you seem to be going well at the moment so well done. :ok