Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09

My system bets today are: 2:35 Sandown 35 points @ 3/1 (Bl Sq) Tidal Bay (though I make Master Minded the value at 4/6) 3:05 Sandown 18 points @ 11/2 (Bl Sq) Blue Shark 18 points @ 11/2 (SJ, C) Tchico Polos 9 points @ 10/1 (Bl Sq) Spear Thistle 6 points @ 16/1 (L) Five Dream 3:35 Sandown 9 points @ 10/1 (VC) Nine De Sivola 8 points @ 12/1 (SJ, Sky) Tana River 8 points @ 12/1 (Bl Sq, PP) Sporting Rebel 6 points @ 18/1 (Sky) Leading Authority Ginge

Sorry Fatz, I thought I had made this clear from what I said on the post, but can see now it was a bit misleading. A few of you were interested in what qualifies to be backed under my Compiler's The Adviser System. Tidal Bay qualified under the rules to have 35 points on at 3/1; thought I'd better say so. However, as I also said; Master Minded was my own opinion of the value bet. It is (in my opinion) obviously wrong for me to bet against my own value judgement. I therefore would not have backed Tidal Bay and did not include it in my bets. However, I do recognise I should have been more careful in how I say things. In future when a similar situation comes up I will write it down in a line above my normal bets, hopefully making things clearer. If anyone thinks I should include the 35 points please say and I will do so, no problem. My fault entirely, lack of time sometimes leads to mistakes like this happening. Appologies for the misunderstanding. Did not realise the non-runner in Snap Tie's race, good job he got 2nd.EDIT NOW ALTERED :ok Will have to look back and see if there was a rule 4 as well. Thanks for pointing these out Fatz, proves someone takes an interest.:ok Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Fintron, The trouble I have with lay bets is that in the past I have not been successful. I do not like betting odds-on anyway, at least not long odds on. I recognise there are value bets at odds-on, just to make anything on them a high stake is required. Therefore if it happens to go wrong, it could wipe out most of the hard earnt profit in one go. Also, a large part in my working out of any price is the likelyhood of a horse running to form. This is allowed for in my price but can not be very accurate. I look at how it ran last time out and was there a valid reason for it running poorly; do conditions suit it better today. Temperament, headgear, trainer form, jockeyship, age / is it on the downgrade? Are all considered. However, connections of the horse and yard are likely to know more about whether a horse is likely to be able to run to form than I. If we take the Hennessy as an extreme example: I made Madison Du Berlais a 0.2% chance of winning in my 100% book. The complete outsider, having run poorly on reappearance at Ascot and had yet to show anything like his best since a very heavy fall in the Grand National. I believed him very unlikely to run to form. Most bookmakers early morning price was 66/1, had I been a compiler I'd have offered 125/1. (Sounds a big difference but is less than 0.75%). He was then well backed in to 25/1, in my opinion (at the time) poor value; however, if you were certain of a return to form then around 33/1 would have been a fair price. So in my opinion if I was to lay horses regularly, I'd be at the mercy too often of those in the know. By concentrating on backing horses to win, it reduces the chances of losing a big sum in one go. By considering myself a better backer, may be my mindset is not right for laying either. Would not like to put off anyone with the correct attitude for laying. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Got flu so no appetite for studying form this weekend. No bets. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Well, when betting on certainties let's bet big. See Oddschecker. Victor Chandler Chase tomorrow. Betting Without Master Minded. 444,444 points @ 5/4 Petit Robin (VC) 266,667 points @ 11/4 Or Noir De Somoza (VC) 125,000 points @ 7/1 Natal (VC) 125,000 points @ 7/1 Mahogany Blaize (Tote, SJ)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09

Well, when betting on certainties let's bet big. See Oddschecker. Victor Chandler Chase tomorrow. Betting Without Master Minded. 444,444 points @ 5/4 Petit Robin (VC) Returns 999,999 points 266,667 points @ 11/4 Or Noir De Somoza (VC) Returns 1,000,001.20 points 125,000 points @ 7/1 Natal (VC) Returns 1,000,000 points 125,000 points @ 7/1 Mahogany Blaize (Tote, SJ) Returns 1,000,000 points

Total Stake 961,111 points Returns around 1.000,000 points Guaranteed profit of around 38,889 points Mark

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 1:55 Haydock 14 points @ 7/1 Montgermont (14% 6/1) 13 points @ 8.2/1 Opera Mundi (13% 13/2) 7 points @ 3.9/1 Dear Villez (23% 100/30) 3:25 Ascot 18 points @ 6/1 Saunders Road (18% 9/2) 13 points @ 10/1 Something Wells (13% 13/2) 5 points @ 7.6/1 Oracles Des Mottes (14.5% 13/2) Analysis tomorrow

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 3:25 Ascot continued. 3 points @ 74/1 Cossack Dancer (2.75% 33/1) Analysis is coming, honest.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 1:55 Haydock Montgermont's jumping may be helped by going up in trip with a slower pace. A good novice a couple of seasons ago. Has been staying on in a couple of 2 ½ mile races, suggesting better to come at today's trip. Goes well on soft. Rather have a better jockey, but can't have everything. Could be a blot on the handicap if his jumping holds up. Dear Villez, 4^th in the Hennessay, no obvious excuses. Stays very well, goes on the ground, consistent. Every chance. Opera Mundi, stable companion of Dear Villez. Has a terrific record at Haydock and in very soft ground too. Not the best of runs on reappearance but has run poorly at Cheltenham before. Has an excellent chance if back to his best. Kandjar D'Allier is getting on in years now but seems just as good as ever. Won well on reappearance on a sound surface but goes well on very soft too. Has had a long time off but runs well fresh. Does look exposed. Cloudy Lane has run like an exposed horse this term after having a great time last term. Unless he is being brought along for a specific target. Runs well at Haydock. Miko De Beauchene was hampered and unseated rider in the Welsh National, jumping in to Mon Mome. Remains to be seen if he'll be effected by that. This might be a little short for him even in these conditions anyway and trainer could be in better form. Glasker Mill does not usually jump well enough to win a good race like this. Stable is in better form of late and not out of it if putting in a good round. Pass Me By is an interesting outsider. Looks out of it on his form over park fences, out of the handicap here. But has run very well on the x-country course lately and on that form has a chance. 3:25 Ascot Saunders Road won a Cheltenham conditional jockeys race last time, quickening in fine style under today's pilot. Rys Flint is worth a few pounds, already one of the best claimers and still takes 7lbs off. Saunders Road has won right handed at Sandown, (another conditionals race), stays the trip, and won on good and soft ground. Steadily progressive in a race without many improving types. Something Wells I backed last time here where he ran poorly but vet reported he coughed afterwards. There are not as many front runners in this race as there was there which should enable him to race handily. On his penultimate start possibly went off too quick and did much the best of the trail blazers. Should be equally effective at this trip as 2m. Is a chance he may be best left-handed but looked progressive and worth taking a chance at the price. The best conditional takes the ride and stable still flying. Oracle Des Mottes presumably has had a poor write up from Paul Nicholls in today's Racing Post; to have drifted so badly. I saw / saved on him at Fontwell last time. Given an awful ride by Walsh there, on his first visit to the track. Is a hold up horse, which is not usually the best of things these days at Ascot. Official going now softer, coming in to his favour. Cossack Dancer runs his best races from the front and is an interesting outsider, although the official going report has changed since I put the bet up. Not quite as good a value bet now. Probably best without too much give under foot. Up there with the pace a long way before tiring last time. Has a good record at Ascot and jockey is adept at pinching races from the front. Cossack Dancer may be just getting to his best and his small stable is in form. Boomshakalaka runs well right-handed, in form, acts on the ground, should stay the trip on the ground, stable still in great form. Just the price looks too short and seems exposed. Alright Now M'Lad jumped better when I saw win a race at Newbury which is not working out well. Then ran poorly last time at Kempton where the good ground probably put a strain on his fencing. That may be the case again today. Stable is in good form though. Miss Mitch's trainer/s doesn't seem in good form. Might be an idea to keep an eye on Haydock to see how Micko De Beauchene runs earlier in the day. Ran well last time when racing prominently and may be able to do better if all is well with the yard. The Wicketkeeper is not out of it if the going isn't too soft. Possibly did not stay 3 miles last time. Runs well here but is inconsistent. Palarshan has a chance on the book but has a poor win / run ratio and does not look straightforward.

[BillyHills]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Hi Ginge, Hope you dont mind me sticking this in here but the question is aimed at you primarily. I seem to remember you have had some contact with Dave Nevison over the years and just wondered if you saw his piece in the RP today. It was quite interesting how he talks about 'true odds' and value and apparantly only bets horses that are 15% bigger than is own tissue, if this is the case do you think he would have many bets, or if you did this would you have many. It was also interesting how he says is total strategy towards betting changed after Eddie Freemantle tought him how to do his own tissues. As he said its all down to how good you are at judging a race and getting the tissue right in the first place, how true is that eh! Not sure if i'm right or wrong here but for someone who thinks about value and refuses to bet horses he fancies because of the price, I find it strange that he pumps fortunes into bets like the Scoop6 and the Tote super 7. I suppose he really must think these bets are terific value, something that most ordinary punters would think were 'lottery' bets. Cant make my mind up about the pool bets, whats your opinion on them as regards value. BH

[Gingertipster]

The pro gambler I used to talk to at the races was Alan Potts, but he had a different way of doing things to me. It was Alan who first told me about true odds at a Wincanton meeting many years ago. Never spoken to Dave Nevison as I don't really like the bloke as a person. Though the way he goes about things is almost identical to my betting strategy. Have not seen the article but I would imagine he does not mean he'd want 15% different as in any horse he rates as a 20% 4/1 chance he'd want 20/1 (true 5%) that would be rediculous. The biggest difference I've known on my 100% books is 12%. The 15% difference I'd presume is the profit on the bet. e.g if he rates something as a 6/4 chance. A £1000 bet at 6/4 makes a profit of £1500. A £1000 bet at 13/8 makes a profit of £1625. Difference between £1500 and £1625 being £125, which is a difference of 8.23% on the amount that would be won if it was the true value price (125 '/, 1500). Where as a £1000 bet on at 7/4 makes a profit of £1750. Difference of £250. Which is a difference of 16.67% (250 '/, 1500). Therefore if he rates something as a 40% 6/4 chance of winning, he would want at least 7/4 to back it. Giving a margin for error which I do too. Have got his first book but not the second. Was a little disappointed in the first. It is true, it is down to how good the punter is at evaluating a race in to a tissue. If he / she is no good at it, they will not show a profit. It took me some time to get the format right. How much to alow for each different aspect of form. It is a pointless exercise if the punter does not want to put in the time working out form. I myself have never been in to pool bets. Did the placepot just once, had 9 lines, 2 lines won, but as most favourites won ended up losing on the bet. I know a lot of pro's do pool bets. I know Alan won the Jackpot more than once, once on a Cheltenham Festival day. It does seem strange betting when you do not know the odds. Think their point of view is that the scoop 6 etc is full of mug punters so they are betting against those who ignore certain types of horse. Which gives pro's an advantage. Never been in to miracle bets myself, the take out from the Tote is a massive percentage too. Of course someone with a tipping line, the publicity of winning a scoop 6 is invaluable and massages the ego. So that might have something to do with it. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 I was doing that post too late last night, forgot another way he might be working it out. Could be he wants 15% of the percentage better. So the his 6/4 = 40%. Therefore he would want 15% of 40%, 0.15 x 40 = 6. 40 - 6 = 34. 34% is midway between 15/8 (34.8%) and 2/1 (33.3%). So presumably he would want 2/1 about anything he believes is a 6/4 shot. Anything he considers a 23% (100/30) chance he'd want 4/1 (20%). As 15% of 20 is 3. 23 -3 = 20 20% = 4/1. This seems a very reasonable way of doing things. If I did it this way it would certainly cut down on the shorter priced horses I backed. Was there any indication which of thes two ways of working 15% out Dave Nevison works to BH? Ginge

[BillyHills]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Deleted[url=http://imageshack.us]

[bowles10]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09

The pro gambler I used to talk to at the races was Alan Potts, but he had a different way of doing things to me. It was Alan who first told me about true odds at a Wincanton meeting many years ago. Never spoken to Dave Nevison as I don't really like the bloke as a person. Though the way he goes about things is almost identical to my betting strategy.

which one is Alan, Ginge? Is he a fairly chubby fella with dark hair? I know my old man used to speak to a guy amongst nevison, Eddie the shoe etc & his name was Alan. I used to see him at Cheltenham etc Interesting stuff with the table of odds etc, you are starting to get me hooked Ginge & i need a sabatical from work if i am to have the time to do this!

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Thanks BH, interesting stuff. Agree with all bar the bit about pool bets. Most of my bets are late the night before or in the morning. My 100% book will change a bit once racing is under way. With in or out of form trainers, checking times for going assessments, non-runners effecting pace etc. Sometimes if there is a horse I think is value but it still drifts further, it is disconcerting. You have to think has something happened on the way to the racecourse? I would back it, but not have so much on. I will have a big bet on something in the morning or night before but rarely late on. Don't think it would be right for me to describe Alan, but your Alan does not sound like him. He does not go racing as often now. There is a picture of him on the cover of one of his books, "Betting Against The Crowd", I think. It sounds as though I have a couple of converts.:lol Ginge

[BillyHills]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09

It sounds as though I have a couple of converts

Bowles and Nevison you mean Ginge :lol Done Stats and fractions all my life but dont have the time to build tissues or study like i'd want to take it serious. I had a breif spell as an on-course bookie, was at Epsom for the Henbit Derby it was that long ago, had to do tissues for point to point races with hardly any public form, now thats scary with all the old farmers waiting for you to make an error! Interesting stuff never the less.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:35 Cheltenham tomorrow 27 points @ 3.7/1 Star De Mohaison (26.5% 11/4) Walsh is on Nozic but Barry usually rides this since being onboard in the SA Chase. Excellant return to chasing here last time. Close second under a big weight. Wonderful record around Cheltenham. Halcon is the class horse, one of my favourite horses but unless it is bottomless may struggle for pace at this trip. Might save on him later. Tidal Bay proved he stays but also proved his temperament is getting poorer last time. Again might be worth a saver later. Nozic is capable of better but needs to find it. Has quite a bit on with the weight turn around with Tidal Bay.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 3:45 Cheltenham 23 points @ 4/1 (paddy power) Big Buck's (23.25% 100/30) 13 points @ 8/1 (paddy power) Fair Along (13% 13/2) Punchestowns is a top class horse and still improving. But the stable companion in second probably failed to stay. So we are relying on the "dog" Mobaasher" to tell us how good the form is. It is probably very good but with doubts I'd want 11/8 to back it. Would still be a doubt about staying the trip on a stiff course on very soft too. Big Buck's produced an excellant performance under a big weight at Cheltenham last time. And it may be even better than it looked, idling badly on the run-in. Fair Along comes from a yard in form, also has won under a big weight here. 8/1 looks too big to let go. Have backed Blazing Bailey for the Stayers hurdle and should run much better with blinkers on this time. But even at his best will struggle to give weight to the principals.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:05 Cheltenham 7 points @ 21/1 Mister McGoldrick (7% 14/1) 6 points @ 7.6/1 Stan (14.5% 6/1) 13 points @ 10.5/1 Private Be (13% 13/2) 7 points @ 6/1 Akilak (16.75% 5/1) 3 points @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) Too Forward (9% 10/1) 12 points @ 10/1 The Sawyer (11.5% 15/2) I make 6 horses value here. Akilak won well last time, sprinting clear under similar conditions. But his win/run ratio is poor and so only gets a saver. Stan won well here last time. Trainer was in magnificent form then, still is o.k. Another saver. Private Be has been very consistent before pulling too hard in Stan's race last time. If settling well can come back to form for an in form yard. The Sawyer is 3lbs out of the handicap but battled for his win last time. Goes well in soft conditions and trainer in excellant form. Too Forward looks very well handicapped, goes well at Cheltenham and is suited by distance and going. Though does have a poor strike rate, as does his rookie trainer. Mister McGoldrick is a favourite of mine. Proven on any ground, runs well at Cheltenham, usually consistent. Ran a rare poor race last time but probably failed to stay 3m. Stays 2m4f. Could surprise a few if staying the extra furlong in the conditions. 21/1 looks too big.

[fintron]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Ginge, what percentage do you make Simarian at Cheltenham today? 10's a value bet?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Last Race Cheltenham 8 points each way @ 28/1 (SJ) Unfurled Have not worked that race out Fintron. But have backed Walkon for the Triumph. Triumph Hurdle 17 points @ 7/1 Walkon (17% 5/1) Sorry no time for write ups

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Not a bad day, one loss, two wins, one 28/1 each way, one ante-post horse enhances prospects by winning. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09

Well, when betting on certainties let's bet big. See Oddschecker. Victor Chandler Chase tomorrow. Betting Without Master Minded. 444,444 points @ 5/4 Petit Robin (VC) 2nd (1st) Return 999,999 points 266,667 points @ 11/4 Or Noir De Somoza (VC) 125,000 points @ 7/1 Natal (VC) 125,000 points @ 7/1 Mahogany Blaize (Tote, SJ) 3rd (2nd)

Stake 961,111 points 38,888 points profit Better not include this bet (where I was on a certainty) in my results, although the prices were apparently available at some point with Victor Chandler. And was for hours afterwards still on oddschacker. When I phoned them the betting was mysteriously "suspended". Seems as though they realised a rick had been made! Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09

1:55 Haydock 14 points @ 7/1 Montgermont (14% 6/1) Well backed, fell first 13 points @ 8.2/1 Opera Mundi (13% 13/2) 3rd 7 points @ 3.9/1 Dear Villez (23% 100/30) 3:25 Ascot 18 points @ 6/1 Saunders Road (18% 9/2) 4th 13 points @ 10/1 Something Wells (13% 13/2) 2nd 5 points @ 7.6/1 Oracles Des Mottes (14.5% 13/2) 3rd

Cossack Dancer Non-runner. Days Stakes 70 points, Return 0 points, Deficit 70 points.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09

2:05 Cheltenham 7 points @ 21/1 Mister McGoldrick (7% 14/1) 6 points @ 7.6/1 Stan (14.5% 6/1) 13 points @ 10.5/1 Private Be (13% 13/2) 7 points @ 6/1 Akilak (16.75% 5/1) 2nd 3 points @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) Too Forward (9% 10/1) 3rd 12 points @ 10/1 The Sawyer (11.5% 15/2) 1st Return 132 points 48 points stake

2:35 Cheltenham 27 points @ 3.7/1 Star De Mohaison -27 points 3:45 Cheltenham 23 points @ 4/1 Big Buck's 1st Return 115 points 13 points @ 8/1 Fair Along 3rd 36 points stake 4:20 Cheltenham 8 points each way @ 28/1 Unfurled 3rd Return 64 points 16 points stake Days Stakes 127 points, Days Return 311 points Days Profit 184 points

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09

Todays Results New Years Resolution To do my results more often. Updated Results Total stakes 1587 points, Total Returns 2028.42 points, Total Profit 441.42 points 27.81% profit on stakes 15/46 Strike Rate 32.6% (+ 2 each way placed @ 5/1, 28/1) Average Stake 34.5 points per race Individual winners 25/1, 3/1, 100/30, 10/1, 10/11, 8/1, 3/1, 20/1, 7/1, 43/1, 7/2, 33/1, 10/1, 10/1, 4/1. Average priced individual winner (232.5 '/, 15) 15.5% 11/2. Average price taken per race (1396.8 '/, 46) 30.4% 9/4.

Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 As the markets are betting to a large over round at the moment am just going to have half bets for the moment. 2:10 Wincanton 13 points @ 3.6/1 Speed Bonnie Boat (27% 11/4) 3:10 Wincanton 14 points @ 3.6/1 Dastardly Dick (28% 5/2)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 3:10 Wincanton A further: 7 points @ 4.6/1 Dastardly Dick 2:10 Wincanton 7 points @ 3.5/1 Speed Bonnie Boat

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 2:10 Wincanton Speed Bonny boat ran really well on very soft ground last time for her in form yard. Suggesting better given an increased test of stamina. Was under Mark Bradbourne that day and has a 7lb claimer on board today. McEvoy does o.k in hurdles races. Had a top jockey been booked am sure she'd be a lot shorter, so swings & roundabouts. Smuglin comes from the Nicholls base normally so dominent here. Ran well enough when third on hurdling debut last time and should improve on that. But on form is currently a poor price and should not be favourite. Cherry Flora is going up 2f in trip and is the obvious alternative. May save on her or even have a little each way later. Eileen Tilly has her hurdling debut and has winning bumper form. A market move may be significant. On jockey bookings is the stables choice. Stable companion Deadly Expected looks second string. Both her and Romantic Bridge have to bounce back from poor runs. Callerlilly was probably flattered at 100/1 when 4th, making the running in a slowly run race. 3:10 Wincanton This race seems full of dodgepots. Black Jakari was thought of as the stable's principle Triumph horse early on but has disappointed. Probably should have won at least once before now if he was straightforward. A run of 2nds tells a story. Not run on ground as soft as this before. Oiseau De Nuit is inconsistent, another disappointing run over fences latest start. Possibly best fresh these days. Better known as a chaser and well handicapped on his best form in that sphere.trainer in good form. Looks too short to back currently. Stradbrook has the assistance of AP, goes well on very soft but was a little disappointing last time. Every chance though if bouncing back. Dastardly Dick got the race in the stewards room last time. That was at Exeter (stiff course), should go well again if this is a good enough test. White on Black won a poor race last time and may be flattered. Tender Falcon is not out of it, especially as a test at the trip should suit. Might have a saver on him later. I expected to be against DD, but am surprised the price is so big.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 Speed Bonnie Boat now a non-runner. Was going to Wincanton today but does not seem worth it, even on a Goodwood reciprocal freebie. Best quality race is a two runner affair, shame on you trainers. Other races are uncompetitive, not interested in conditional jockeys races or bumpers. Not Wincanton's fault, they've done well to get racing on at all. Just one of those things.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 08 / 09 3:40 Wincanton 14 points @ 15/2 (Tote) Moleskin (14% 6/1) 17 points @ 9/10 (sportingbet) Princeful (58% 8/11)