Fintron's AW Thread

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.10 Southwell Just the Lady is no world beater but she may be too good for this bunch with only Forever's Girl looking like a likely contender. Just The Lady tackles the surface for the first time but has shown on turf she likes to get her toe in (won on soft ground at Beverley) and her running style is suited to this CD. Her rating has been dropped 10 lbs after a third in a Lingfield seller last time out, and 63 seems a bit more realistic. She won a selling handicap off this mark previously and so looks to have less to find that Forever's Girl who has been raised 3 lbs, despite finishing 4th last time out, and is 9 lbs above her last winning mark. 7/2 Skybet 3.40 Southwell Xpress Maite is the 5/2 fav here off the back of a win here (when well backed) last time. However, that win came as a bit of a shock as he petered out tamely here on the 2nd Jan, and I don't have maximum faith on him to follow up off a 5 lb higher mark here. Ingelby Arch is getting well backed this morning and could go off fav, but is another that looks too short imo. Admittedly, he did win a class 5 handicap here in November and although he probably found the company a little too hot last time and is entitled to go better here now dropped in grade, his profile suggests he doesn't score highly in the consistency stakes and at the price I think the percentage call is to oppose. Thoughtsofstardom goes better on polytrack and has started to look in the grips of the assessor and Came Back is yet to win since switching yards and moving back into handicaps. After a 3 lb drop he's entitled to fare slightly better now and he does act on the course, but the trainer/jockey is a no no for me personally and I'm passing over. So that leaves two possibles; Realt Na Mara and Bo McGinty. The former is a course and distance winner having won last time out but Hughie Morrison's gelding steps up in grade here and must prove himself off a career high mark. His effectiveness on the surface is a massive plus but at the prices I think Bo McGinty is a better punt. Richard Fahey's gelding isn't 100 % reliable, but he is handicapped to win on the pick of his form as he runs off 76 here, 4 lb less than his Chester success in a class 3 handicap in June (same grade as here). Although most of his wins have come over the minimum trip, he does have a couple of wins over 6 furlongs and he is proven on the fibresand having won here in April. 8/1 Blue Square 4.40 Southwell Riguez Dancer looks a good thing here having sluiced up last time but good things, like Mrs Bun, Jordi Roper, Sabancaya and Take Me There, have all been done at bigger prices than this at this track so I'm taking a chance on another as I feel the fav will be well backed, pushing up the value about the others. Mr Aitch was sent off at 66/1 here in December but put in a decent effort to finish a neck off Ornkney. He was raised 3 lbs by the handicapper as a result, and ran credibly last time out at Wolverhampton when fourth to El Diego. The form of that race has been boosted by the third, River Ardeche, who won next time out off 72 and the sixth, Mission Control, won next time out off 70. It is also worth noting that Karmest (reopposes here) was well back in 8th that day too. Steve Drowne's mount runs off the same mark of 73 here so I think that gives him every chance bearing in mind he has won in a higher grade off 1 lb lower in the past (Chester Aug '06). That win may have been three years ago, but he retains some ability - not only does he have the aforementioned form to his name, he has been running well in the NH scene with a win and a place to his name this year and he can't be written off, despite the 14's on offer. 14/1 Blue Square 10 pts win taken on all.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Mr Aitch finished fourth at Southwell as the 8/13 favourite, Riguez Dancer, ran out a facile winner. It was disappointing that the chasing pack allowed the winner such a soft lead as it is hard to come from off the pace at Southwell, however, they would have probably been hard pressed to catch Pat Haslam's horse who won in style anyway. Just the Lady fly jumped in the stalls apparently and that is always going to hinder a horse that likes to lead. Bo McGinty ran a respectable race and was pipped for second at the post. However, he didn't look like catching the winner. Bet 365 have prices up earlier so I'm putting this up now. 4.40 Lingfield I watched Tous les Deux's last race on the 16th January and noted him down straight afterwards as one to follow next time out. Ridden from the back of the field by Fergus Sweeney, he was forced wide as they swung for home, but he made strong progress late on and was gaining on the leaders at the finish. Gary Moore's gelding is running off a mark of 72 again tomorrow, which is 7 lbs higher than his win at Kempton on the 5th November, however, I feel the form of his last few races has been well advertised and he is entitled to go well off this higher mark. On the 30th December he finished second to Titan Triumph over course and distance and the 82-rated winner ran well next time out when defeated by only a short head by Red Somerset. Jake The Snake was a further half of a length back in third, and boosted the form further when landing a race when last seen (albeit in a claimer). However, the most noteworthy piece of form in my opinion is his seventh last time out as the form of that race has been triple franked, firstly by the winner Trafalgar Square, who won off a 5 lb higher mark next time out, secondly by the third, Strabinios King, who won in a higher grade next time out at Wolverhampton and can be considered an unlucky loser on his last run as he went in seach of a double as a stray horse unsettled him upfront. The final form boost comes courtesy of the tenth, Cornus, who picked up a Southwell handicap off 70 a week ago (incidentally, it was Strabinious King who he mugged for the win). With George Baker back in the saddle that is another huge plus and I think Tous les Deux can go well at a price if the gaps appear. 6/1 Bet 365 (bog), 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.20 Kempton Nine runners line up for this class 2 handicap over 7 furlongs and it looks a competitive race on paper. Perhaps the form horse in the race is Southandwest, who has picked up a couple of all weather handicaps of late and didn't get a trouble free passage last time out as he was denied the hat-trick. He is 7 lbs higher than his highest ever winning mark, but is in good form and must be respected. Tamagin has slipped to a decent mark and has the class to win a race of this nature, however, he is poorly drawn to attack in stall 2 and with Dvinsky starting from stall 8, the Paul Howling rival is the likely early leader. Nevertheless, I think Dvinsky may be a little exposed for now and when he won recently at Great Leighs he got the race run to suit, and I don't think that will be the case here. Geezer's Colours is 7 lbs higher than his latest win and may need the run after a 243 day break and Capricon Run, a regular in the top all-weather events, hasn't made the frame in the past year, despite the fact he's got plenty of runs under his belt. One of the most interesting runners at the weights is Fajr, who hasn't won for over a year, however, following some disappointing efforts in handicaps off 103 the handicapper has cut him some slack and slashed his rating 10 lbs. That could bring him into things, but given his current vein of form I'll watch and not back today. Wilkandoo isn't handicapped out of things given his third to Councellor off this mark and he is versatile tactics wise and could go well, but others appeal more, namely Opus Maximus and Trafalgar Square. Opus Maximus ran credibly at Redcar over further in a competitive handicap when last seen and he is likely to appreciate the step back down to seven furlongs here. A previous win at Lingfield proves he handles polytrack and although he was sixth on his only visit here he did hit traffic trouble as he was hampered on the rail soon after the start and didn't get a clear. Hit fitness must also be taken on trust though as he has a 123-day absence to overcome. So taking into account the question marks over the field I think Trafalgar Square is worth a bet at 13/2. Michael Attwater is in decent enough form and his gelding just did enough to win his last race at Lingfield. The upsides of that win was that the handicapper only raised him 4 lbs up to 83 here, but in my opinion he won with a bit in hand and the margin of victory was only so small because Jim Crowley got him going late. The form of his Lingfield on the 16th January is working out well as Strabinios King won next time out and was unfortunate when prevented from landing a double by Cornus, who finished 10th in Trafalgar Square's race. Tous les Deux, back in 7th, boosted the form further still in the last at Lingfield today so all in all I think he is worth chancing at the price. 13/2 Blue Square, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Tous les deux was given a masterful ride by George Baker. It was a textbook hold-up ride and he timed it to perfection as the Gary Moore horse was backed into 9/2 SP and won by half of a length. Trafalgar Square continued to drift from 10/3 in the morning but finished a respectable third and i would have backed him again at that price given the opportunity as I thought he should have been half of his 8/1 SP. Todays bet. 1.30 Southwell The one I think is worth a bet at the price here is Alan McCabe's Incomparable. The trainer does well at this track and is coming into some sort of form with the rejuvenated Capricorn Run landing a valuable race at Kempton last night. Incomparable is a course and distance winner having won in this grade in November off a 2 lb lower mark, and he has been running with credit ever since when raced over the minimum trip. He has a couple of sixths to his name, but in my opinion that is because he doesn't see out six furlongs well. For example, on the 13th December at Wolv - "with leader, ridden over 2f out, jinked right over 1f out, weakened final furlong" and then at the same track on the 7th January, "took keen hold, soon in touch, ridden 1f out, one pace." His last run at Southwell came on the 25th November when again, he didn't see out 6 furlongs, "chased leader, ridden to lead over 2f out, headed over 1f out, one pace final fulrong", however the form of that race hasn't worked out too bad regardless, as the third, Efisio Princess, recently picked up a handicap here, the second, Charles Parnell, won his next two handicaps and the winner, Ingelby Arch, has won twice since also. So all in all I think he stacks up to be a good bet at the price as he's well handicapped and been getting competitive off 69 on his last two runs when beaten by only 0.5 lengths and a head, he is dropping back down to a suitable trip, he acts on the surface and jockey Pat Cosgrave was in the saddle for his last win. 6/1 Ladbrokes, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.30 Southwell Smarty Socks is one in my notebook and looks the one they have to beat here. He had some decent form in handicaps in Ireland off marks around 90 last year, and although it took him a while to settle with his current stable, finishing well back in the field at Redcar and Pontefract, he finally started to exploit his generous mark of 60 with a win at Leicester in October. I saw him at Southwell for his next run in November and he won well under a penalty, and he confirmed his liking for the course further with a win over a mile here when last seen. Those wins came either side of a decent effort in a Doncaster handicap, when hampered close home but finishing 6th of 21, and I think he has got his act together once more. 2/1 Paddypower, suggested bet 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Incomparable ran another solid race and was 2nd (beaten by a neck) to Whiskey Creek in the 5f dash. Smarty Socks ran a cracker considering he broke badly, but he made steady progress up the inside and just did enough to hold off Flores Sea to land the win. Bet 365 have prices up early for tomorrow....... 7.20 Wolverhampton Riguez Dancer hacked up at Southwell on Tuesday and understandably his trainer turns him out quickly again here under a penalty after an easy win. However, he is likely to be short in the betting and I think there will be value in siding with another, American Spin. Adam Kirby's mount interests me at the price as he is lightly raced and open to significant improvement after only two career runs. Formerly with Brian Meehan he made his debut in a Newmarket maiden in October 2006 but was kept off the track for over two years, presumably because of injury, before returning to action for a new yard 31 days ago at Kempton. Racing over a similar sort of distance to that he will tackle tomorrow he was a wide margin winner, beating Dontpaytheferryman by four and a half lengths. The form of that maiden isn't anything out of the ordinary as the runner up is only rated 52 on the AW and the third, Orpanella, 54, but he could only beat what was put infront of him and the manner of the victory looks impressive on paper. He starts life handicapping on a mark of 75 tomorrow, and if he is able to reproduce the level of form displayed on his debut then he could be up to the task off that rating, bearing in mind the form of the rivals - Napper Tandy (1st) went close in handicaps off 88 and was second in a listed race when last seen, Walking Talking (2nd) has been running well off marks around 90 in handicap company and Carlton Cannes (6th) won on his handicap debut off 75, and was around 3 lengths behind American Spin that day. All in all I think he is well handicapped, his recent win proves he is in good health despite few runs on the racecourse and I think he could go well at a price. 6/1 Bet 365, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 4.05 Southwell Boss Hog (nb) has been running very consistently and I'm surprised he's still a maiden after several decent efforts in handicaps. He's been shaping as if a drop back in trip will suit. On the 10th Nov over a mile here Sporting Life reported, "tracked leaders, led over 2f out, soon ridden, headed entering final furlong" and similar comments were recorded on runs on 25th Nov and 13th Dec when, "led, ridden over 2f, headed well inside final furlong, no extra close home" and "led, ridden over 2f, headed well inside final furlong, no extra close home". He did drop back to 7f last time and finished second at Wolverhampton (was hampered close home), but coming back onto this surface will be right up his street and he looks the form horse in the race. Admittedly, he is the most exposed runner in the field and concedes weight to most, but Gabriel Hannon's 5 lb claim will help in that respect and I think he is worth a bet at the price. 11/4 Bet 365, suggested bet 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread For the second day in a row my nap was a neck second, this time it was American Spin, subjected to a massive gamble going from 10's into 3's in the morning before some withdrawals collapsed the price further. I maintain he is well handicapped and he ran a decent enough race. A slight step up in trip would definately interest me more next time but I'd back him over that trip again and hope he finds a bit of space a bit sooner next time. Bos Hog won at 11/4 in the maiden to ensure a profit was made on the day. I'm going for the jugular today with four big priced horses. All look to have chances to me, Nimmy looks to be suited by the step up in trip, Comeintothespace looks to have shout in a weak race and Internatrionaldebut is an old fav put up in here on plenty of occasions previously. Everybody Knows looks well treated to reverse a couple of bits of form and at the price looks worth a punt. 3.00 Lingfield <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

In what looks to be a wide open event I think Comeintothespace is an interesting runner. He’s been campaigned over hurdles for Karl Burke last year (the best he managed was a couple of seconds) but is now back with his old trainer Rodney Farrant. When he was with Farrant before he had an admirable record on the all-weather with form figures of 132310811 that included two course wins, one of which was over this distance. Burke rarely ran him on the AW, and on the two occasions he did, he flopped. However, I’m hoping that a return to familiar surroundings may bring about a revival in form, much like Confidentiality showed a couple of weeks ago on his comeback run for Michael Wigham. Comeintothespace runs off a mark of 50 tomorrow, which is 3 lbs lower than his win at Kempton in April ’07 and given that he is proven on the surface, a CD winner and can go well fresh I’ll have punt. 14/1 Stan James, 10 pts win 3.35 Lingfield The best race of the day and it looks very competitive. Top-weight Philatelist was suprisingly sent off favourite for his last run but has been struggling to make his mark in handicaps and is 6 lbs above his last win. A 2 lb easing mark from last time out will help but he's got work to do to get closer to Lady Jane Digby. Prairie Spirit is a bit of an unknown quantity but his relatives seem to have preferred softer surfaces than this so I'm opposing on the basis of the going. Ace of Hearts is a decent sprinter and although knocking on, is consistent. However, there are doubts as to whether he can see out another couple of furlongs here. Lady Jane Digby had the beaten of a couple of these over course and distance on the 10th January and was mugged off a follow up off 90 when last seen by Formation. She runs off a 1 lb higher mark here but is 1 lb better off with that rival. Formation himself may have fluked that win as he was running in claimers not so long since. Confidentiality may find the company a bit too hot and one of the more likely ones is Baylini, third to Formation and LJD last time out in a blanker finish. He's been knocking on the door off 87 of late and could go well again. John Terry ran with promise for some way on his comeback here on 10th Jan but failed to build on that last time out. With Gwens Spirit a NR, that leaves just two more runners, Al Muheer and Internationaldebut. Al Muheer may be suited by the step up in trip and was well backed when fourth to Wasp last time, however, he may not get the race run to suit with the lack of a pacesetter in the field. If the pace is slow they this may not turn out to be as big a test of stamina as it looks on paper, and it could play into the hands on Internationaldebut who didn't finish a million miles away from Formation, Lady Jane Digby and Baylini last time and may just be stretching himself to last a truly run 10f. He was in rampant mood earlier in the year and his disappointing 9th three starts ago came as a bit of a surprise. Perhaps he needed that run (returned from 43 day break), and when he was 5th after, the slow surface at Southwell may not have been to his liking as he likes to come from off the pace. His last effort was a bit more respectable and having been cut 2 lbs since, he is now only 3 lbs higher than his last win. 10/1 Will Hills (bog), 10 pts win 4.10 Lingfield Everybody Knows is in good form and was closely matched with Trafalgar Square over course and distance last time out when a one-length second. However, he's 6 lbs better off with that rival tomorrow and also runs off more favourable terms with the third that day, Strabinios King. The form of that race is working out well with the winner, third, seventh and tenth all picking up next time out wins and after only seven runs the colt is open to further improvement. 9/2 Stan James, 10 pts win 3.20 Wolverhampton Nimmy's Special remains a maiden after six starts but has threatened to score on more than one occasion. On the 13th October she ran in a seller over seven furlongs here, and made good late progress, running on well at the finish, to suggest she would be suited by a step up in trip. Beaten by only 0.44 lengths that day she raced over the same trip next time out at Leicester in a class 6 nursery. Again, she ran a decent race, this time on the outside, again staying on and finishing just 0.31 lengths off the winner. Her last run came in a Wolverhampton nursery over 1m 1f here, and she didn't get the best of runs, hitting a wall of runners as they turned for home. As they entered the final couple of furlongs she gained a bit of breathing space and stayed on, but by then the winner had flown. However, I think she could be suited to this sort of trip and given she runs off a mark of 62 she could have a chance. She wasn't far of Svindal in a seller and that rival has recently gone in off 65. 20/1 Stan James, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread god awful day yesterday with EK withdrawn and none of the other three making the frame. 4.40 Kempton What Katie Did (nap) was a course and distance winner two runs ago and although 5 lbs higher than that win, has won off higher marks in the past. He may be happier over 6f, so although he finished back in third last time over 5f, I don't think he can be written off on 64 just yet. His last race came in a class 5 0-70 handicap, and today he drops down into a 0-65 class 6 handicap and those infront last time would exceed the ceiling rating to compete here. The winner last time (Drifting Gold) came from a yard that could do no wrong at the time (Clive Cox) and the second (Incomparable) has been a model of consistency and looks a winner waiting to happen. He looks to have a big chance now back up in trip. Blue Square go 7/2, suggested bet 10 pts win 3.10 Kempton This looks an interesting race and I'm prepared to take on the jolly Guildenstern who will find life tought off this revised mark. He must be respected in current form, but others make plenty more appeal at the price to me. Balata is a course and distance specialist who ran into a well handicapped Fancy Footsteps last time out when running here over a mile. The drop back in trip will suit and I think he should give a good account. However, two others that make more appeal at the prices are Last Sovereign and Millfield. The former returns from a 177-day break but has a history of going well fresh and he is only 3 lbs higher than a win in this grade at Newmarket when last seen. He has form over this trip and could go close if all is well. Millfield is a quirky character that can often race too keenly for his own good, except for when George Baker rides. Baker is a master in the saddle and it seems to rub off on the horse who seems more calm under him. Together they've won five times and he's only 3 lbs higher than their win here in November. He too drops back in trip, but he placed over this trip at Brighton in the summer and with a bit of overnight support for him I think the Patrick Chamings runner has a big chance. Balata 5/1 Stan James 2 pts win Last Sovereign 9/1 Paddypower 3 pts win Millfield 10/1 Stan James 5 pts win

[fintron]

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Keep it going Wayne. Still in profit mate and that's the main thing;) Only comment / advice I'd give is maybe you should try to be a little more selective with your bets - I've always said "no bet is no problem". You clearly know your stuff but it's nigh on impossible to be a master in all elements (ie, handicaps, maidens, claimers, etc). I was a little gutted today as I really fancied Royal Envoy but ignored it because of the price...it won:$ Fantastic 1-2 with Last Sovereign & Millfield today too:clap Hope you don't mind the comments:ok PS, do you think Wolves will be on tomorrow? 7.30 inspection but I fancy one in the first.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Keep it going Wayne. Still in profit mate and that's the main thing;) Only comment / advice I'd give is maybe you should try to be a little more selective with your bets - I've always said "no bet is no problem". You clearly know your stuff but it's nigh on impossible to be a master in all elements (ie, handicaps, maidens, claimers, etc). I was a little gutted today as I really fancied Royal Envoy but ignored it because of the price...it won:$ Fantastic 1-2 with Last Sovereign & Millfield today too:clap Hope you don't mind the comments:ok PS, do you think Wolves will be on tomorrow? 7.30 inspection but I fancy one in the first.

Thanks for the comments Russ, if anything I'd like more comments in here. I take the point about being selective, I do have too many bets but if I am torn between two picks I tend to stick both up instead of deciding between the two. I need to be more disciplined, like you were with Royal Envoy (well done with that one by the way). I hope Wolves is on but if the snow is anything like it is up here then I won't get my hopes up. Theres one I really fancy so I'm praying its on....Keepsgettingbetter in the 4.30 handicap. Only had the three runs so far, all in maidens, but has hinted that there is something there. A neck second over CD in a seller to Barkass on his debut, and that rival has won a handicap off 63 in October (on turf though). The third has won a handicap off 63 in the aftermath of that race. Keepsgettingbetter starts handicapping off 62 here. His last effort tempers enthusiasm a bit, but could improve now handicapping and first time blinkers may focus his attention. Draw a slight worry, but a big price on betfair tonight and if anything like the tissue 8's in the morning will definately interest me.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

I hope Wolves is on but if the snow is anything like it is up here then I won't get my hopes up. Theres one I really fancy so I'm praying its on....Keepsgettingbetter in the 4.30 handicap. Only had the three runs so far' date= all in maidens, but has hinted that there is something there. A neck second over CD in a seller to Barkass on his debut, and that rival has won a handicap off 63 in October (on turf though). The third has won a handicap off 63 in the aftermath of that race. Keepsgettingbetter starts handicapping off 62 here. His last effort tempers enthusiasm a bit, but could improve now handicapping and first time blinkers may focus his attention. Draw a slight worry, but a big price on betfair tonight and if anything like the tissue 8's in the morning will definately interest me.

It seems Bet 365 have their prices up early for this....10/1. I'll happily take that..... 4.30 Wolverhampton Keepsgettingbetter ran encouraginly on his debut in a course and distance seller when he led but was headed 1f out. For his next run he raced over a mile at Great Leighs when again leading before fading 1f out. His last run came in a maiden over course and distance and he was disappointing, but I think he is worth another chance here because of a couple of things. Firstly, he now qualifies for a handicap mark, and I think he has a chance off 62 bearing in mind the form of his debut when he finished a neck behind Barkass (a handicap winner off 63 in October) and two and a half lengths infront of Kingsholm, who franked the form with a next time out win off 63 at Southwell. Those bits of form suggest he could be well handicapped, and the second important factor for me is the application of first time blinkers. Headgear could focus his attention a little better and enable him to see out his races right to the end. He isn't ideally drawn in stall 9, but racing over 1m 1f 103y he should still have time to find his ideal racing position and with Chris Catlin on top he should be given every chance. 10/1 seems a fair price to me (Bet 365), 10 pts win.

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread :ok Keepsgettingbetter is 10's with Bet365, can get 12's on Betfair. I have to say I looked at it too but I tend to shy away from horses having their first run in a handicap, just personal preference. Good jockey booking too. The draw doesn't really worry over this trip, plenty of time to get a good position. Good luck mate:ok PS, might be worth analysing your bets by race type....see if any patterns emerge:ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I'll take a chance on it. If I back ten of his type at that price then I only need one to go in to stay level. I do need to sit down and analyse my bets again. I did this with my blog bets at the end of the turf season and found out a few interesting pointers. I need to do it for my AW bets over the past few months too, but its just a case of finding the time isn't it. I'm doing a little bit of research into course and distance winners at the minute, when thats done, it is something I need to do. I also need to get my notebook typed up on here, its not been updated for months. La Estrella (gutsy effort today against a rival much better off at the weights) and Chijmes (didn't get race run at true pace and short of room on rail) were two I noted this weekend.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Poor choice today, pulled hard, never got the support in the market I was hoping for, and unplaced. Two for tomorrow: 4.10 Lingfield An opening looking class 5 handicap and the one that I think could go well at a price is Peter Hiatt's runner, They All Laughed. He picked up a win in this grade off a 4 lb higher mark at Southwell in March and continued to run with credit in subsequent runs up to around June, after which he was put away after a couple of below par efforts at Nottingham and Salisbury. On his comeback run at Southwell on New Year's Day he blew away a few cobwebs and although a well beaten 7th of 8, clearly needed the run after a 159-day break. On his next outing at Wolverhampton he fared much better, finding only Riguez Dancer too strong, and that 1.75 length second reads as a decent bit of form as the Pat Haslam horse has won two since, and absolutely hosed up on both occasions. The form of that Wolverhampton handicap was further boosted last week by the fifth too, as Sheer Fantastic, another Haslam horse, won next time out. They All Laughed's last run came at this track in an amatuers handicap and he finished a fair 4th. I thought he travelled quite well, with the jockey dropping him in behind and then making steady progress on the outside to give him every chance entering the last couple of furlongs. Although he couldn't find a bit of pace to catch the leaders he plugged on well enough to suggest he's in fair heart and with the inform Robert Winston (5-14 in the past fortnight) taking over tomorrow I think he could go well and be involved in the shake up. 7/1 Bet 365, 10 pts win 3.40 Lingfied Only five line up for a contest that looks listed calibre in name only and few warrant a mention. Rio Guru looks to be improving and there looks to be more to come from her, however, two previous tries at this level have resulted in failure and I think her time will come in the future. Suits Me has been one of the AW stars this winter in my opinion and after a series of top efforts in handicaps, his rating was forced up and he had no option but to make his move into listed company. However, he ran up against Dansant last time out and was put in his place and I think that Dansant should be able to confirm that form tomorrow as he's only giving 1 lb more than last time out when a winner by two and a half lengths. George Baker's mount is well in at the weights as he'd be giving an extra 4 lbs to Suits Me in a handicap, and stones to the remaining trio. I think he looks a very solid bet indeed, with winning course and distance form to his name last time out and a top jockey booked. 8/13 Paddypower, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 4.40 Lingfield Only four runners line up for this class 5 handicap and I feel the race could become tactical, just as the 3.40 was earlier on the card. I can't be taking 7/4 about Compton's Eleven, who has never won on the AW, or 9/4 about Cornus, who fluked a win last time under fortunate circumstances. I think there is definate value in siding with Thoughtsofstardom here at 15/2. He was pummelled by the handicapper for some decent handicap efforts at this track and it has taken a while for his mark to come back down. It has now dropped to 6 lbs above his last win, which came in this grade so I think he now has claims, especially since he's been competing in higher grades against much better rivals. All of his wins have come over the minimum trip and he must see out an extra furlong here, but I feel with only 4 runners he represents fantastic value at the price and could throw a spanner in the works. 15/2 Blue Square, 10 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread The less said about yesterday the better. With a new day comes fresh hope and I think Noah Jameel is definately worth a go at this price. 2.05 Kempton<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

An open looking handicap to open the card here and they're betting 3/1 the field. Plenty look to be in with a chance - Ready to Crown chased home Colonel Sherman last time out and the form of that race has been boosted through the third (Mix and Match, who reopposes here), and Sir Mark Prescott's runner Rough Sketch, the current fav, is lightly raced and could be worth noting if there is support. The Graig would interest me if running over shorter but I think he may be found out over this trip so the one I'm on is Noah Jameel who could potentially go off at an overly generous price IMO. Both of his career wins have come at this track over this sort of trip and his last run suggests he needs further than the 1m 1f 103y he tackled at Wolverhampton that afternoon. He made good late progress inside the final couple of furlongs and looked as though he would have a race in him of this sort of mark. He's only 3 lbs higher than his last win, in Feb '08, but that doesn't offput me because he's had a couple of near misses. Similarly, the 72 day break isn't a problem either as his last run came off the back of an absence of a similar length. I took 13.5 last night but for the purposes of the thread, as usual, a bookies price will be quoted here in case anyone wants to follow. I'd take anything down to 6/1 for this one. 14/1 Stan James (bog), 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.10 Lingfield I've been an ardent follower of Teasing, backing her religiously since she was stepped up in trip and she's finally rewarded my faith with a couple of wins at Wolverhampton in her last two. I have outlined previously what I feel are her ideal racing conditions - a small field where she is able to keep tabs on the field without getting stuck at the back too far off the pace, a visor fitted and Rovert Havlin on top. She has all of that today and although she is dropping slightly in trip, she is a proven 7f winner so that should not be a problem. She looks to be running off a fair weight for this claimer and after a comprehensive win last time out and with the yard in fantastic form she is the one they have to beat here in my opinion. 9/4 Bet 365, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Teasing disappointed yesterday but I was delighted with Noah Jameel, who belied his SP of 12/1 and ran more like the 6/1 shot I thought he should have been. A 140 pt return (14/1 Adv) would have been nice and only a neck denied the victory, but I am putting up these big priced selections with the expectation that I will have long losing runs. You only need one in every dozen or so to go in and you keep your head above water. I have done a yankee on these four today and although I acknowledge Russ's point about about needing to be more selective to boost thread profits, I think all of these are good value bets worth getting stuck into. 5.15 Kempton A wide open race in which hat-trick chasing Safebreaker is expected to be all the rage after a comfortable win last time out. However, I feel he is worth opposing here at the likely price because of a poor draw. Copperwood is similarly drawn low but I don't consider that important for him as he has responded well recently to a change in tactics (now held up). He may remain a maiden after fifteen starts, but most of those efforts have come over shorter distances. I can see why the trainer has campaigned him over shorter, because his breeding suggests those shorter trips will suit, however, his most noteworthy effort to date came when stepped up to a mile at Lingfield last month. He finished strongly that day and wasn't a million miles off the winner, who has gone on to score again subsequently. It is also worth noting that the majority of his unplaced efforts have come when he has tracked the leaders or at worst raced mid-division. He briefly attempted hold up tactics back in March - April last year, and although he was unplaced on both occasions then, he was just starting his handicap career off a mark that may have been excessive. He is now 20 lbs lower for his run today and judging by that Lingfield effort, as well as a 5th at Lingfield when staying on well but getting going too late over 7f, I think he could be worth backing here. The jockey seems to get on okay with him and on a couple of occassions he has been heavily backed to suggest he is fancied to go in at some point. 7/1 Boylesport, 10 pt win <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

1.20 Southwell King of the Beers would interest me at a price but I feel he needs further, and Fun in the Sun, although in a decent level of form, has to prove his effectiveness on the surface. Headgear has failed to sharpen up Tiger's Rocket in recent starts, this time they are clutching at straws with a vistor, and Lancaster Lad is another that may prefer quicker ground. Rub of the Relic likes to race prominently but has a wide draw to overcome and General Tufto may be suited by further. Louisade looks one of the more likely winners as he has slipped to a nice mark and has finished in the frame on his last two starts. However, he is on the decline and it may pay to side with Jordi Roper, who will be suited by the step back up in trip. Raced over 6 furlongs on his last two runs, he has shaped as if further would suit. I think he is worth a try at 7f personally, because even when he was second over the mile here, it was very late on that he was collared. Still only 4 yo, Stuart Parr's gelding is open to more improvement and he has been a model of consistency at the course. He's only 5 lbs above his last win and 1 lb higher than a neck second here two starts ago, and although he was a disappointing fourth last time, he was simply outpaced over that shorter trip. they run him over a mile today and whilst that is probably pushing the limits of his stamina, in this company, I think he is good enough to get home. I fully expect him to gain compensation today and although a degree of caution must be exercised betting in apprentice races, I think the 10/3 (Betfred) is a fair price. 10 pt win

3.35 Southwell I think Figaro Flyer is worth a punt at 9/2 here. He finished well when last seen, finishing less than a length off Gwilyn at Wolverhampton (3rd) to put behind him a 7th at the same track on his previous start. He came from off the pace last time out but is versatile tactics wise and showed when chasing home Garlogs over course and distance that he is also comfortable sitting in behind the leaders and handles this surface too. He's 7 lbs higher than his last winning mark but has won off higher in the past and given a couple of recent near misses I don't think a mark of 70 is beyond him. 9/2 Skybet 10 pts win 4.10 Southwell I can't be taking 11/10 about the jolly - <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />FloresSea - here. He was flattered by the margin of defeat last time purely because the winner, Smarty Socks, broke badly and gave himself a tough task. With a clean break I think Midgeley's horse would have won with plenty more in hand. FloresSea is back down to a winning mark, drops in grade and is a CD winner, however, I feel Mrs Bun is the value bet in the race. The step up in trip from sprint distances has worked wonders for here and she never runs a bad race at Southwell. She was beaten by a head by McConnell last time out but that came over a mile, and that run suggested a drop back in trip here will be in her favour. It is a little suprising that the blinkers have been taken off but the fitting of a first time visor may hopefully bring out a little bit of improvement (won with first time cheekpieces in Nov). 7/2 Paddy's 10 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 6.05 Nad Al Sheba Redding Colliery has been in my notebook (last update was pages and pages ago - keep forgetting to update) for some time and following a yard switch reappeared here to take third behind to Godolphin horses last time out. He absolutely hosed up in a Kempton maiden and ran with promise last time to confirm he is above anything he tackled in that maiden. He led for a way last time out before being ground down late on, and running off a weight 5 lbs worse off today he probaby has work to do to beat Desert Party. However, there could be plenty more to come from him and again he's a tasty each-way price with the possibility of further improvement to come. 5 pts EW 16/1 Bet 365 (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Redding Colliery went a little towards brightening up another poor day placing in the Nas race but all at Southwell disappointed me. I'll back Copperwood again, I thought he would have done better with a clearer run, and will be interested if he's running over 8f+ nto, especially at Ling, when hold up horses fare better (and where he has a little bit of form). Time for a new strategy from now on - one bet a day MAX, and a return to each-way betting in an attempt to prevent haemorraghing of points from near misses like Noah Jameel, Copperwood etc. 4.05 Wolverhampton Southandwest - was a recent CD winner and his bid for hat-trick not helped by the fact he was short of room and leant on (10th Jan at Kempton). He was also turned out very quickly, less than 24 hours since his previous win infact, and the previous days win may have knocked a little out of him. Although he was well beaten last time, it was in a higher grade than this and he is proven in this grade. He's 7 lbs above his last winning mark but I think he is a quirky horse that needs to be caught right and if on a going day, could win again. The betting suggests this is a tight race, and I'll go for the outsider, who is proven over course and distance. 8/1 Paddypower, 5 pts EW (1/4 odds on 2 places).

[Trotter]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Southandwest is drifting badly...........out to 14/1 in the Life 'latest odds' :loon

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Southandwest is drifting badly...........out to 14/1 in the Life 'latest odds' :loon

Not a good sign at all. Can't pick my nose at the minute. :\

[Trotter]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Not a good sign at all. Can't pick my nose at the minute. :\

In the end he got backed again and ran a good race. I think maybe he just doesn't like Kempton, as you said he's 'quirky'......... Let's hope he runs there a few times then comes back to Wolverhampton ! :lol

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I was happy that he hung on for second, I thought the third was going to nick the place off him. Shame I didn't wait until the morning before taking a price but I thought he was fairly priced at 8/1.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Southandwest was uneasy in the market during the morning, but was backed back in in the afternoon from the 14's he stood at at one point. He ran a decent enough race and did enough for second without managing to catch the winner. The other result of interest for the thread was one I backed on my blog but didnt put in here as Im trying to stick to one bet a day - Zalkani. He was stepped back up in trip at Ling and was desperately unlucky in hitting a wall of runners in the stretch. He remains of obvious interest next time out over that 13f trip and hopefully can get a clearer run next time. 4.45 Lingfield I was impressed with Matsunosuke's win last time out and he is enjoying a terrific season. However, he's been put up another 7 lbs here and will have to be right at the top of his game to win here with others having less to find. Harry Up and Turn on the Style look like they could be battling for the lead and that could set this up for a hold up horse, such as Ebraam (nap). He's been dropped a further 3 lbs after an unplaced effort last time out so is only 1 lb lower than his last winning mark. A CD winner, he has a piece of course form to suggest he can reverse placings with the Balding runner. He also had Matsunosuke behind in the same race. 6/1 Bet 365 5 pts EW (1/4 odds on two places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Both of yesterdays bets finished unplaced. Ebraam finished strongly but made his move a little too late. American Spin looked to be going well until a gap appeared for the winner, who burst through to win decisively. Things arent going too well for me at the minute and over the past couple of weeks I have destroyed the profits I had built up earlier last year. As a result, I am having a dry run for a couple of weeks, but am still following racing because I don't want to lose touch with stuff as I have found it hard to pick it back up after complete breaks in the past. 3.00 Southwell Ok, this may seem a stupid selection at first glance, but delving a little deeper I don't think it deserves to be a 40/1 shot. Firstly, I think top-rated animals always warrant respect in all-weather handicaps because the statistics show they win just under a fifth of all races. Only A Game (nap) is top-weighted here because of a rating of 70 and has infact been running off much higher weights on previous starts. His last run over course and distance came running off a mark of 78 in a class 4 handicap for horses rated 0-80. His next start came in another class 4 handicap at Wolverhampton, this time for horses rated 0-85 and his last run came in another 0-80 race, for which he was rated 74. He has failed to make an impact on all of those starts, but if you can look beyond those pieces of form then you would have to say he is not a 40/1 shot. He won a course and distance handicap in this grade off a 2 lb higher mark in January last year to add to a couple of wins in selling races in his first few starts. He is proven on the surface and likes to race prominently, and in this small field should have no problems taking up his favoured racing position. Only seven go to post so he might be worth chancing with Jimmy Quinn on top as he's ridden quite a few winners at Southwell recently. He's reasonably race fit and first time blinkers could spark a little bit of improvement now he is back down below a previous winning mark and dropped in grade. Stan James go 40/1, suggested bet 5 pt EW (1/4 odds on 2 places).

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Time for a new strategy from now on - one bet a day MAX' date=' and a return to each-way betting in an attempt to prevent haemorraghing of points from near misses like Noah Jameel, Copperwood etc.[/quote']

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Chin up Fin you will soon bounce back:ok